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Revolt in Russia Ends; U.S. Officials Expect More Bloodshed in Russia; White House is Monitoring the Situation in Russia; Wagner Leader's Whereabouts Unknown; Questions Raised about Putin's Leadership. Aired 9-9:30a ET

Aired June 26, 2023 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Major new questions this morning after the failed revolt in Russia. The U.S. secretary of state says we have not seen its final act. A video emerges of Vladimir Putin just a few minutes ago. So, what message is it supposed to send? We are live in Moscow with the latest.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Russians cheering in the streets as Wagner mercenaries made their moves, shaking hands with Wagner's leader in the last images seen of him before he was to escape to exile. The mood inside the country and the potential cracks in Putin's rule.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: And what does all of this mean for Russia's war in Ukraine? Kyiv now claiming it's gaining ground in the east. Will the Russian infighting have devastating consequences for Russia, as some analysts predict?

We're following all of this and more right here on CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

BERMAN: Just a short time ago we saw Vladimir Putin on video for the first time since the most serious test to his authority in his decades in office. Now, we do not know when or where this video was shot, and Putin made no mention of the rebellion. Major questions remain this morning. Where is the man who launched the revolt against Putin? What impact is this all having on the ground in Ukraine? And what has this done to Putin's grasp on power? CNN has reporters and analysts stationed all around the world to find answers to these questions. Questions that get to the heart of international security and world order. An order that was thrown out of balance in a remarkable 48 hours.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken says it shows cracks in the Russian regime, a crisis in which he says we have not seen the last act.

Now, the march of the renegade mercenary Wagner group was halted before it reached Moscow as part of what the Kremlin claims was a deal to drop charges against the leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and for Prigozhin to leave for Belarus. But Prigozhin has not confirmed the deal and has not been seen since Saturday night. And as we said, Putin himself only just appeared in video for the first time since Saturday.

CNN's Matthew Chance is live in Moscow this morning.

Matthew, what are you seeing there?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Moscow, of course, John, is breathing a sigh of relief because, you know, after that weekend of mayhem in which armed Wagner mercenaries were making a beeline for the Russian capital, threatening a confrontation with the security forces here, there was a last-minute deal, the violence was averted, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who's, of course, the leader of the notorious Wagner group, was meant to be packed off into exile in the neighboring country of Belarus. So, relief in Moscow. They've lifted the tight security measures that were imposed over the weekend in preparation for that entrance of Wagner forces. But it's really - I have to say, John, it's relief that's coupled with a high degree of anxiety as well about what this armed rebellion will unleash, whether it will spark more kind of cracks appearing in the regime of President Vladimir Putin, and what President Putin might do in order to consolidate now his very increasingly tenuous grip on power, John.

BERMAN: We saw Putin in this video, Matthew. Also the Defense Minister Shoigu on video for the first time since all of this. What's the significance of that?

CHANCE: Well, I mean, look, we've all been waiting to see where these key players are. Sergei Shoigu is, of course, the defense minister. He's the person, more than anyone else, who Yevgeny Prigozhin has been criticizing for mishandling the war in Ukraine. The whole march for justice, as Prigozhin called his drive towards Moscow, was an attempt to seize Shoigu and oust him from the office of the defense ministry.

[09:05:08]

The fact that he's now appeared on Russian state television, inspecting the sort of western military region of the Russian military, sort of implies that no action by Putin is being taken against him at the moment. Although it's not clear, of course, when that video was filmed.

Equally, we're looking for signs from Vladimir Putin himself about how this weekend may have shaken him, about what measures he may take to consolidate his grip on power in this country after such a challenge to his authority. And what we got is not a live appearance, not even an appearance that was -- that was, you know, recorded recently, we don't think. This was a prerecorded video message to a forum -- an international youth trade forum, apparently, which is taking place in the Russian region of Tula (ph). And he didn't even mention the events of the past 36, 48 hours. And so we're none the wiser as to where Putin is and to what -- what his - what steps he may -- he may now take. We also don't know where Prigozhin is, by the way.

BERMAN: All right. Or is he under investigation, Matthew? Is Prigozhin being investigated for the insurrection or not? There seem to be mixed signals. CHANCE: Yes, mixed signals indeed because, you know, when the deal was

done, the Kremlin said that part of that deal was that all charges of insurrection, for instance, which is very serious, of course, as you can imagine in this country, against Prigozhin were going to be dropped. But now the state news agency saying, in fact, that hasn't happened and he's still being investigated.

BERMAN: All right, Matthew, it's great to have you there. Please keep us posted. Stay safe.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: This weekend's insurrection was a surprise to many, but the U.S. intelligence community had been tracking for days that Prigozhin had something in the works against Russian leadership.

Let's get over to Natasha Bertrand, she's at the Pentagon for us tracking all of this.

So, Natasha, we know that - we -- the reporting is that their - that U.S. intelligence had a sense, in the days ahead, that something - that something could be happening. But still, in seeing how it played out, did it surprise U.S. officials?

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: That's right, Kate.

So, we reported over the weekend that U.S. intelligence officials did pick up some signals that Prigozhin was perhaps planning a major challenge to Russia's military leadership and that he was perhaps even massing weapons and equipment to prepare to actually move into Russia and challenge Russia's defense leaders.

But there was some surprise about how this actually unfolded. Namely, they were surprised that it wasn't bloodier. U.S. officials did expect that there would be a lot more resistance from Russia's actual troops to Russia's -- to the Wagner troops that were entering the country. And they expected that there would be a lot more bloodshed. Essentially they thought that there would be more of a fight put up by Russia's troops to Wagner's procession into Russia and, of course, up towards Moscow.

They were also surprised by the swiftness of the deal that was reached between Belarus and Wagner forces, between Belarus and Prigozhin, that essentially ended the entire thing. Part of this, of course, may have to do with the fact that Prigozhin did not actually end up getting to Moscow, which is where U.S. officials would have expected the fiercest resistance to come from Russian troops. And so he kind of turned around before there was an opportunity to do that. But there are big questions here about why Russia's military did not put up a bigger fight.

Now, in terms of what comes next, U.S. officials are still unclear as to what happens from here. And Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that it is too soon to say where this all goes and what it means for Putin's leadership, but that cracks have certainly emerged.

Here's what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE: It's too soon to tell exactly where this is going to go. And I suspect that this is a moving picture and we haven't seen the last act yet. But we can say this, first of all, what we've seen is extraordinary, and I think you've seen cracks emerge that weren't there before.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERTRAND: Obviously the most serious challenge to Putin's leadership in his over 20 years of rule, and U.S. officials will be watching, for how Putin responds to all of this in the coming days and week, Kate.

BOLDUAN: Absolutely. Thanks for the reporting, Natasha, as always.

Sara.

SIDNER: Not a surprise that the White House says it's monitoring the situation in Russia very closely. President Biden was briefed and met with officials behind closed doors at Camp David. American embassies across the globe were told to convey that, quote, the United States has no intention of involving itself in this matter.

I want to bring in CNN's Arlette Saenz, She is at the White House for us.

Arlette, we know that the president has spoken to a lot of world leaders. Did he actually have a conversation with Ukraine's President Zelenskyy?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, he did, Sara. President Biden spent the weekend at Camp David working the phones with allies as the White House and its allies are continuing to assess what the broader impact of this short-lived rebellion will be in terms of Putin's rule in Russia and also the war in Ukraine.

[09:10:06]

Now, the president spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy yesterday and he also placed calls to some of the U.S.'s top allies, including the leaders of France, Canada, Germany and the United Kingdom. What is key among all of those allies is they have been a central part of the west efforts to counter Putin's war against Ukraine. And these phone calls not only touched on those recent events in Russia, but it also talked about the ways that they could continue supporting Ukraine as this war continues to play out.

Another message that was relayed in these calls was the need for essentially everyone to lay low, allow the events in Russia to play out. And one things that officials have been quite cognizant of is they want to avoid giving Putin any reason, any fodder to make claims that the west was interfering in these matters in any way.

And that is why President Biden has really adopted this very cautious and quiet strategy. We have yet to hear directly from President Biden himself. He spent the weekend huddled with his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, at Camp David. In a short while, we will see the president, at an unrelated event, but it could be a chance for him to face some questions on this matter as the U.S. is trying to get a handle of what kind of impact this will all have on the war in Ukraine and Putin's hold on power in Russia.

SIDNER: Yes, of course, Putin already sort of trying to hint that they're looking at what the U.S. involvement was. But in this case, the U.S. trying to distance itself, saying this is a you problem, not an us problem.

Arlette Saenz, thank you so much. We appreciate it.

John.

BERMAN: Yes, as Arlette said, Sara, we will see President Biden, for the first time since this deal was struck, this will be his first chance to comment publicly. We will bring that to you live when it happens.

In the meantime, as we said, we don't even know for sure where Yevgeny Prigozhin is, the leader of the Wagner group. He was supposed to go to Belarus.

Also, what about his forces? What happens to them now?

CNN's international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson is with us.

Nic, give us a sense of what we expect and where we expect those forces to go.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Look, I think Prigozhin is in the position right now of trying to figure out, has the Kremlin duped him by saying they were giving him an essential amnesty. And the indications are at the moment, the Kremlin saying, well, they haven't dropped the charges against him.

We know Putin likes loyalty and dislikes and will distance himself from people who aren't loyal to him. Prigozhin was in his inner circle. He was having a big spat with Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, also in Putin's own inner circle. Putin didn't handle that so well.

So when Prigozhin decided to do this about face and u-turn and pull his troops back from their road to confrontation in Moscow and cut this deal, it was Lukashenko, the president of Belarus next door, who got to cut the deal. But I don't think anyone's fooled that he was the front on it. That Putin wasn't really behind it.

Belarus is a weak client of Russia right now. Lukashenko only just scraped through in his last elections, widely seen as fraudulent, brought out massive protests on the street in 2020. He's been in control of the country since 1994, seen as Europe's last dictator, and he needs Putin to prop him up. And Putin's used this country has a base to attack Ukraine. So, Lukashenko, the cheap and, if you will, weak partner to Putin.

So, this is the place that Prigozhin has gone. So, really? If he still faces charges, is he really going to feel safe there? Do we expect him to pop up and spend any time there? It's -- again, it's all unclear. And would Putin, in this scenario, want to leave Prigozhin with his troops? Wow, that would just seem so unlikely.

BERMAN: These are crucial, unanswered questions, Nic. We are waiting for some answers. Maybe we'll get them in the next few hours. Thank you so much for being with us.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Absolutely. It seems more only questions now ahead in the immediate and long term.

Ahead, we have a closer look at how this situation inside Russia rapidly escalated and then just abruptly ended within 36 hours.

Plus, we're also tracking other big headlines, like the weather. A deadly tornado hits Indiana, and today more than 90 million people are under the threat of more severe weather.

And the U.S. Coast Guard now leading the investigation into what caused the Titan sub disaster. New details of their recovery mission from the bottom of the ocean.

We'll be back.

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SIDNER: All right, we want to break this down for you. It could be weeks or months until we understand the full significance of what happened this weekend in Russia. But what is clear, the mutiny itself seems to have ended as quickly as it began. It started Friday morning when Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin blamed Russia's defense minister for what he said was an air strike on his mercenaries in Ukraine. Now, we don't know if or how many Wagner fighters died in the strike, but Prigozhin responded by questioning the Kremlin's motives for starting the war in Ukraine, and said its military leadership must be stopped. Then, Wagner mercenaries began their march toward Moscow.

Within hours the FSB, Russia's main intelligence agency, opened an investigation against Prigozhin for armed rebellion and military officials began deploying armed vehicles and the Russian national guard in the Capital. As Saturday unfolded, Prigozhin led his fighters into the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, where they took over the headquarters of the southern military district. Wagner forces continued to push north, getting within about 150 miles of Moscow.

There were few signs of resistance, which surprised a lot of people, from Russian troops, but there were a few skirmishes.

[09:20:06] Wagner forces appeared to have shot down at least two Russian helicopters and a plane. A visibly angry Putin gave a nationally televised address Saturday calling the mutiny treason, betrayal and a stab in the back. He warned of punishment. But then an abrupt reversal from the Wagner chief. Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus and a Putin ally, suddenly announced he had brokered an surprise agreement with Prigozhin. Prigozhin called his troops back and agreed to go into exile in Belarus. But as he left Rostov-on-Don, he was greeted like a hero. And people in the streets chanted for his fighters.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CROWD: Wagner. Wagner. Wagner. Wagner. Wagner. Wagner.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: So, where are we right now? Prigozhin has yet to show up in Belarus. And no one has heard or seen him. Russia's prosecutor general's office, however, says the investigation for inciting armed rebellion is still underway.

John.

BERMAN: Yes, Sara, the big question is, what now.

With us now, David Sanger, CNN political and national security analyst, and CNN global affairs analyst and senior managing editor of "Military Times," Kim Dozier.

Great to have you both here.

David, the lead article in your paper today says that what Vladimir Putin has provided to Russia for decades is unconditional stability, which I thought was a very great phrase. So, what does what has just happened do to that and where do you see his grasp on power?

DAVID SANGER, CNN POLITICAL AND NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, stability is gone. Think about where we were a week ago. A week ago I was talking with senior administration officials who were struck by the fact that Putin had gone through this war for 16 months and there weren't that many cracks that were visible. In fact, very few. A week later we see a huge crack that's out there.

You heard Secretary Blinken on TV on Sunday making the point that 16 months ago we were wondering what it would take for Putin to take Kyiv. Now we were wondering whether or not he could defend Moscow.

So, he's got order back. He's, once again, got a monopoly on violence, which has always been the main thing for him. But we don't know where Prigozhin is. I doubt this is over in some form. And the fact that you heard that cheering, that we didn't really see much military opposition to Prigozhin as he was heading to Moscow with the possible exception of this set of air strikes that we're still trying to learn something about, tells you that Putin's got to be a little bit nervous. He doesn't have very many troops left in Moscow -- or in Russia because they're mostly in Ukraine and he's not sure how loyal they are.

BERMAN: So, a fundamental paradigm shift.

Kim, the NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, just a few minutes ago said we should not make the mistake of underestimating Moscow. What are you looking for next?

KIMBERLY DOZIER, SENIOR MANAGING EDITOR, "THE MILITARY TIMES": I'm looking for how Putin might try to downsize Prigozhin. Now, look, we don't know where Prigozhin is. Is he really going to go to Belarus, which is in Moscow's pocket? I think he's more likely to reappear somewhere in Africa, take a jet from Crimea to somewhere where he's safe from Russia's FSB.

But Putin, if he had taken Prigozhin out right now, he would be taking out a folk hero who Moscow helped build up. And every man who was at the front lines at this tough war against Ukraine, and who spoke truth to power over and over and over in a way that Putin allowed. I think then he was faced with Prigozhin holding the Wagner gun to his head, the possibility of open warfare on the outskirts of Moscow that made them both blink. But we have to measure the importance of Prigozhin in how Putin reacted to him. He didn't go to that open warfare. He blinked. He let him live another day.

BERMAN: Really is interesting to see what he did. But why he did it and what happens with it still very much unknown.

David Sanger, how can Ukraine, and perhaps the United States or the western alliance, exploit this, or can they?

SANGER: Well, they're going to certainly try. I thought it was interesting that on the U.S. side President Biden was on the phone to all of the allies with a singular message, which is, everybody stay in lockstep and everyone make the case this is an internal issue for the Russians, because he knew that sooner or later Putin is going to say, this was all a U.S. and NATO plot.

Remember, we only have, John, what, 17 days until the NATO summit in Vilnius, in Lithuania, right on Putin's border. You're going to have all the NATO leaders there. Putin is, obviously, going to try to make the case that they are once again plotting to expand NATO and threaten his regime.

[09:25:05]

That was his ultimate argument over the past year. And so I think President Biden is trying to be very careful to say, hey, this was your internal issue.

Now, if you're Zelenskyy, you probably enjoyed the weekend, but my guess is that over time this is going to make it harder for Putin to compromise on anything that would lead to an armistice or peace deal.

BERMAN: By the way, we have yet to hear publicly from President Biden since this really all began.

SANGER: Isn't that amazing.

BERMAN: It is. It really is interesting.

SANGER: Yes.

BERMAN: He's speaking in a couple hours on another subject. We will bring you live that -- to you all live when that happens because one might expect he will say something about what's going on in Russia.

Kimberly, a Vladimir Putin who cannot guarantee unconditional stability, what kind of a leader of Russia is he?

DOZIER: Well, look, inside Russia he still has control of information operations. The majority of people within the country will be seeing what he wants them to see. And likely you're going to see an information campaign now to degrade Prigozhin, especially since the legal case against him is still live, despite this assurance that all the cases against Wagner forces would be dropped. But if you are sitting in Beijing or Delhi, or any African capital where you rely on Wagner forces for everything from training your own forces to foreign policy advice, you're wondering, does Putin really have his house in order? It doesn't look like it. Why should I side with Putin against the west? He's no longer the safe bet that we thought he was.

BERMAN: And we are hearing phone call after phone call from Vladimir Putin to different world leaders around the world trying to reassure them, hey, I'm still here. You do wonder how effective that is.

Kim, David, great to have you both here. Thank you so much.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Lay low and let the situation play out. That appears to be the message from the White House as you all were just discussing to allies around the world as the chaos unfolded in Russia. Will it have an impact on the battles in Ukraine now?

And the work is far from over for the U.S. Coast Guard as its investigators now begin looking into what exactly caused the Titan sub to explode, and what can be learned from this disaster. Ahead the evidence that they will be reviewing.

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