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Trump Dominates In New Poll; Harris Goes On The Offensive; Griner Taking Mental Health Break; Americans Abducted In Haiti. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired July 31, 2023 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[09:33:29]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: So, a new poll out this morning shows former President Trump really crushing his rivals in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Trump leads Ron DeSantis, Trump's got 54 percent. DeSantis has got 17 percent. I want to walk up to it just so you can see how big it is. This is a giant gap. "The New York Times" notes that no presidential candidate has lost a lead that big this late in a race. You can see no other candidate tops 3 percent in the polls.

Now, if it's just two candidates in the race, Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, DeSantis still loses by a two to one margin.

All right, with us now, CNN senior political analyst and senior editor at The Atlantic," Ron Brownstein.

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Hey, John.

BERMAN: It's a big lead.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes, it's a big lead. Very few candidates have every gotten to 50 percent in national polling in presidential primaries. And if there's like a one-sentence memo out of this poll to the other Republican candidates, what you're doing, it ain't working.

BERMAN: So, Nate Cohn, of "The New York Times," in his analysis of his own poll, breaks down these three groups and says the issue here is it's like a third, a third and a third. A third of the Republican voting block is what he calls the MAGA base, the make America great again base. If we can see that so people can see what I'm talking about here.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: Well, 37 percent. Thirty-seven percent he lists as persuadable. Twenty-five percent as not open. There it is.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: Twenty-five percent as not open to Trump. BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: Thirty-seven percent in his base. That's a pretty high floor.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. First of all, this is the argument Whit Ayres has been making, the veteran Republican pollster, for some time that essentially fourthly 40 percent of the party is locked in for Trump.

[09:35:05]

There's another 30 percent or so that is open to an alternative but not unfavorable to Trump. And then there is this 25 percent that we see consistently in polls on all questions really throughout the Trump era that are -- that really want an alternative.

The important point is, by the time Trump won the nomination in 2016, by the time he had effectively clinched the nomination in New York, that was his support.

BERMAN: Yes.

BROWNSTEIN: He was only at around 40 percent. The Republican primary is structured with a lot of winner take all benefits for whoever wins. You don't really need much more than 40 percent to win. There may be no path, there maybe no strategy that can overcome that, but I think it's clear that what they're doing now, by largely avoiding conflict with Trump, not really raising these indictments as a potential general election problem, largely echoing also claims, it's not working.

BERMAN: Well, put that - if we can look at that again for a second.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

BERMAN: Those numbers where you see 37 percent consider the MAGA base, 37 percent persuadable, 25 percent not open to Trump.

Ron DeSantis, am I wrong or is he actually running in that 37 percent MAGA base?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. Yes.

BERMAN: Most of what he's doing in his appeal is there, not the other two-thirds.

BROWNSTEIN: No. I mean the way to think about Ron DeSantis is Donald Trump is a Mack truck running down the far-right lane of American politics. And instead of trying to occupy that -- all that space he's leaving on the other side of him, DeSantis is trying to pass him on the right shoulder of the Republican primary electorate. And you can see that he is in a situation that is similar to what any of Trump's rivals faced in 2016.

Trump, in this poll, is winning 37 percent of Republicans with a college degree, which is exactly what he won in 2016 according to the summary of all the exit polls that were done, but he's winning - but the remainder, the other 60 percent of college educated Republicans, are splintering. They're not unifying behind any one alternative, including DeSantis. And there you see that unbelievable number in a field with a dozen candidates or so, he is winning 62 percent of Republicans without a degree, which is more even than the roughly half of them that he won in 2016.

You know, that makes it tough. The other thing that makes it tough is that Trump has reshaped the Republican electorate, right? He has driven away some of the voters who were least likely to support him in the first place. In this poll, 63 percent of likely Republican primary voters don't have a college degree. So, the party is getting Trumpier, which helps him with the constituents that he's strongest with to begin with.

BERMAN: And even the arguments that Ron DeSantis is making don't seem to be really hitting front and center. You know, when they ask, who is best able to beat Joe Biden, it's 58 percent of people in "The New York Times" poll said Trump, 28 percent said Ron DeSantis. So, DeSantis is going on electability, but it's not working. You know, and he's still going with electability. Yesterday in New Hampshire, you know, DeSantis was on the stump.

Let's listen to what he said.

BROWNSTEIN: Yes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL) AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When he sits me with the - with the juvenile insults, I think that helps me. I don't think voters like that. I think they look at it and they realize, like, you know what, that's not effective. And so, I don't think it's effective. So, I actually don't mind it at all. I think it's just a reminder why there's so many millions of voters who will never vote for him going forward.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWNSTEIN: Well, look, 65 percent of Republicans in polling, for example, this Bright Line (ph) watch poll that came out last week from a consortium of political scientists, 65 percent of Republicans say he won in 2020. And the fact that the Republican Party has not challenged that argument, that voices Republicans trust have not gone out more firmly saying, it's not true, Donald Trump didn't win, that Donald Trump acted inappropriately after the election, now they're kind of reaping, you know, the consequences of that. If you thought that he won in 2020, why wouldn't you think that he could win again in 2024?

But having said all of this, the one thing we should note is, Trump's position is not quite as commanding in Iowa. And it is possible that someone could beat him there. The last three front runners were all beaten in Iowa. But it is still a long way from an Iowa win built on mobilizing evangelicals -- evangelical Christians, to building a coalition broad enough to beat him. And right now none of these candidates aren't on track to do that.

BERMAN: No, it's not impossible, but one thing is clear right now that Trump has a very large lead.

BROWNSTEIN: The party wants to do this.

BERMAN: Ron Brownstein, great to see you.

BROWNSTEIN: OK. (INAUDIBLE).

BERMAN: Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: How lucky are we to have him in studio? I think this is a first for Ron. Welcome.

BROWNSTEIN: Hey.

SIDNER: All right. Vice President Kamala Harris is coming out swinging for the Biden campaign and targeting Republican policies on hot button issues. This month she went to Florida to challenge governor and Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis over his state's new curriculum standards on black history. Days later she was in Iowa blasting that state's now blocked six-week abortion ban, which is signed into law by Governor Kim Reynolds.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: These extremist so-called leaders should model what we know to be the correct and right approach if we really are invested in the well-being of our children.

[09:40:07]

Instead, they dare to push propaganda to our children. This is the United States of America. We're not supposed to do that.

All is not lost. This is a moment where, again, I will say, I do believe there's a full-on attack against hard won freedoms. But we have power.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: All right, CNN's Isaac Dovere is joining us now from Washington, D.C.

Isaac, can you explain this idea of this rapid response team that clearly Kamala is heading up.

ISAAC DOVERE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Yes, look, the vice president is in a situation here where the Biden campaign wants to isolate moments that are coming up in the Republican primary campaign, on the presidential side, to show that -- and voters they hope that Republicans are extremists and that they want to get as much attention to these moments as they can, whether it's on things like curriculum in schools or abortion or many other issues. And as we enter this new phase of the campaign, the Republican presidential race heating up, they will be using Vice President Harris to go and elevate those things, get people talking about them more.

It should be noted that when she went to Jacksonville to talk about the Florida curriculum, there were people talking about it but not as much as were after she was talking about it. And instead it's been a week-long issue of conversation not only about Ron DeSantis but about where all the Republicans are on that issue.

Isaac Dovere, thank you so much for your reporting there. And we are looking at some of these pictures from Des Moines, where she was earlier. Thank you. Appreciate it.

John.

DOVERE: Thank you.

BERMAN: Basketball superstar Brittney Griner taking a break from the game, for now, to take care of her mental health.

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[09:46:13]

SIDNER: WNBA star Brittney Griner is missing a two-game road trip with the Phoenix Mercury so she can focus on her mental health. The 32- year-old returned to the league earlier this year after spending nearly 300 days in Russian custody. She was released in December as part of a high-profile prisoner swap.

CNN sports correspondent Carolyn Manno is following the story for us.

Griner has played, what, 20 games now. Is there any indication of what might have triggered this, knowing, of course, that sometimes things sort of bubble up after the initial trauma of something like being in prison -- in a Russian prison for so long.

CAROLYN MANNO, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: Sure. Yes, you know, it's hard to say, Sara, without speculating. I mean there was a recent incident in which she was harassed at an airport in Dallas back in June while traveling commercially with the team. And since that time the team has been given permission by the league to take private chartered flights.

But this is not a shocking revelation when you consider everything that she's been through, that she might need to take a time-out. I mean those nearly 300 days in which she was detained on drug related charges in Russia caused her to miss the entire 2022 WNBA season. And then she seemingly picked up right where she left off on the court. I mean she was leading her team in scoring, rebounding, blocks this season. She made the all-star team.

But right now her team, the Mercury, are in the midst of a losing season. They fired their head coach, Vanessa Nygaard, last month. They currently sit in tenth place in the league's standings. They're three and a half games behind Chicago for the final playoff spot. So, that's some context for why this might have been a no-brainer for the team to grant her this request at this particular time in season. But they have offered their support for Brittany Griner through and

through, every step of the way, without any question at all. And so, when the nine-time all-star said she needed a break, her coaches and her teammates did not question that at all.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NIKKI BLUE, PHOENIX MERCURY INTERIM HEAD COACH: Our focus has just been on BG and her taking care of her mental health right now. So, we fully support her as an organization and that's pretty much what we've been focusing on.

DIANA TAURASI, PHOENIX MERCURY GUARD: I mean we really didn't have that term growing up. So, you know, it's obviously something that now is very important, it's in the forefront. You know, there's nothing more than being, you know -- feeling like yourself. And I think that's an amazing thing where, you know, back in the day we just - we just didn't have that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANNO: It goes without saying that this has all been so difficult, Sara, for Brittney Griner. It's been very difficult for her team as well. They care about her. They're in the middle of a really rough stretch here. They lost to the Chicago Sky without her in the lineup on Sunday. She's going to be out for the next game tomorrow night when they face the Indiana Fever.

But making the right decision here. Letting her step away. And we'll see what happens from here in terms of a timetable for her return.

SIDNER: Yes, it just shows you what an incredible athlete she is. She's - she's hitting like 18 points average per game. So, to see her do that and go through this mental strive is pretty incredible. And we'll just wait to see what happens with her and the team.

Carolyn Manno, thank you so much for the update.

John.

BERMAN: All right, Donald Trump's legal bills are mounting. He's spending a fortune, but it really is kind of someone else's money. Now he is launching a new vehicle to bring in cash to pay the legal bills.

An American nurse and her child have been kidnapped. This is a case that the White House is watching very closely. We'll bring you the latest on the efforts to get them back.

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[09:53:37]

BERMAN: There is growing concern this morning for an American woman and her child who have been kidnapped in Haiti. Alix Dorsainvil is a nurse for a Christian aid organization. Her husband, the organization's founder, said his wife and child were abducted near the capital.

CNN's Paula Newton recently returned from Haiti.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: She and her child were taken on Thursday. And while the U.S. State Department tells CNN that they know certainly of the abduction that they're working with authorities on the ground.

The hard part is to determine exactly who took her and her child. In many cases, this is for ransom. And right now the charity itself not saying much other than to release this statement. I'll read it for you now. Alix is a deeply compassionate and loving person who considers Haiti her home and the Haitian people her friends and family. Alix has worked tirelessly as our school and community nurse to bring relief to those who are suffering as she loves and serves the people of Haiti in the name of Jesus.

As I said, that was from the charity.

And, again, this is a woman who the charity says came to Haiti to try and help what is right now a deteriorating situation. With so many of the young people turning to gangs, apparently more than 80 percent of the capital Port-au-Prince has a stranglehold on - by those gangs. And this is the kind of problem that so many Haitians deal with day after day after day, abductions and kidnappings being so common.

[09:55:02]

I want you to listen now, though, to this nurse from New Hampshire, in her own words.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ALIX DORSAINVIL, AMERICAN VOLUNTEER MISSING IN HAITI: Sandro (ph) invited me to come to the school to do some nursing for some of the kids. He said that was a big need that they had. At first I didn't think that there was going to be much of a need there. But when I got there, there were so many cases.

Haitians are such a resilient people. They're full of joy and life and love. And I'm so blessed to be able to know so many amazing Haitians.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NEWTON: You know, again, she was there as a nurse, someone who could bring her skills and her talents to people who desperately need them. Even to operate as a charity right now, Poppy, we spoke to aid organizations, it has become so dire with so many clinics and hospitals closing. They were operating a school out of there.

And what is also disturbing is this seems, from what we know, to have been targeted. So, they were at what they call their Christian campus, which is just outside of the capital. And she and her child were taken directly from there. And these places are not without security. But, again, someone happened to know exactly where she was and that she was there with her child.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: All right, our thanks to Paula Newton for that.

Sara.

SIDNER: Due in court next hour, the property manager at Donald Trump's Mar-a-Lago estate, now facing a slew of charges in the classified documents probe.

Plus, police in North Carolina ask the public for help in finding this black SUV and its driver after he appeared to intentionally hit six migrant workers in a Walmart parking lot. Details on that case is next.

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