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150,000 Jobs Added in October; Antony Blinken Pushes for Greater Protection of Palestinian Civilians. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired November 03, 2023 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[13:00:40]

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN HOST: Hello. You're watching CNN NEWS CENTRAL. I'm Boris Sanchez, alongside Jessica Dean, in Washington.

And we're following the latest developments in the Middle East today, a split-screen moment, on one side, a show of strength among allies. as Secretary of State Antony Blinken was back in Israel again forcefully backing Israel's campaign to eliminate Hamas, even as he bluntly addressed the need to do more to alleviate the civilian suffering that campaign has unleashed inside Gaza.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANTONY BLINKEN, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We need to do more to protect Palestinian civilians. There will be no partners for peace if they're consumed by a humanitarian catastrophe and alienated by any perceived indifference to their plight.

We have gone from zero to now over 100 trucks going into Gaza through the Rafah Crossing every day. But this is still not enough.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

JESSICA DEAN, CNN HOST: Now, while Blinken was speaking, the leader of the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah was also speaking, his first public comments since this war began, Hassan Nasrallah praising the October 7 terror attacks carried out by Hamas.

He warned escalation is still on the table for Hezbollah, but said their primary goal is a cease-fire. But Israel says no pause in the fighting until Hamas releases all 241 hostages.

SANCHEZ: Let's take you now to the region with CNN's Jim Sciutto.

He is in Israel near the border with Lebanon.

Jim, how do you interpret what we heard from Hassan Nasrallah?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: Boris, there was so much anticipation to this speech, first time he's commented in public since October 7 attacks, as Jessica was noting.

There was fear that he might announce a more forceful participation in this war by Hezbollah, in effect, opening up another front in this war from the north. But as we listened to him speak, he didn't say that. He said that option is on the table, but he did not -- he did not put his forces to bear here and announce that they're coming in.

And, notably, we were watching the skies very closely as he was speaking. Were his words joined with action, more missiles, more rockets? We didn't see that either. It could change, but, today, his words were limited to praise for Hamas and the October 7 attacks. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HASSAN NASRALLAH, HEZBOLLAH LEADER (through translator): It was an action that was heroic, brave, innovative, and it was very well executed. It was great. It was a huge earthquake in the region.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Now, of course, those words are shocking enough. Here he is praising brutal terrorist attacks.

He did, though as well put some distance between Hezbollah and those attacks by saying that they did not have advance warning, they were not involved. He said, in effect, that this was a Palestinian operation and even took note to say it was a surprise to them and said he wasn't bothered by it, that it was up to them to choose when and how they were going to act to attack Israel.

DEAN: And, Jim, Nasrallah also saying, to your point there, it was a fully Palestinian operation, basically signaling this was not orchestrated by Iran.

How much stock do we think the U.S. intel community is putting into that claim?

SCIUTTO: Well, listen, they're not going to believe what he says. They're not going to treat his words as credible.

I do think they took note of that daylight that he seemed to be deliberately putting between Hezbollah and Hamas to call this, in his terms, again, 100 percent Palestinian operation, to say, we're not responsible for that.

And, listen, you speak to Israeli officials, they think that part of Hezbollah's hesitation to get involved in this war involves those two U.S. carrier groups stationed now in the Eastern Mediterranean. There was already one in the Med, another one sent their since, as a deliberate message from the U.S. not to get involved, not just to Hezbollah, but to Iran's other proxies in the region, not to get involved in numbers in this conflict.

And when you speak to Israeli officials, they believe that that show of force has had an effect, at least to date, U.S. intelligence, Israeli intelligence and others always keeping their eyes open, because that may change at any time. And, by the way, last night, we saw a whole heck of a lot of rockets coming across the border from Hezbollah fighters in Lebanon.

[13:05:07]

But at least today, we did not hear the Hezbollah leader announce his forces jumping into this war. And you might call that a moment, a moment at least of relief.

DEAN: Yes, it is absolutely key.

All right, Jim Sciutto for us in Northern Israel, thanks so much for that reporting.

I want to bring in CNN's Natasha Bertrand now.

And, Natasha, the secretary of state, Tony Blinken, bringing up the prospects of a humanitarian pause. We know Israel's ruling that out for now. They say they want all hostages returned in the event of any sort of pause.

Has Blinken gotten any concrete assurances on that humanitarian front while he's been there?

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Well, Jessica, the only real commitment that he says that he has received from the Israelis is that they would address the extremist violence taking place by Israeli settlers against Palestinians in the West Bank.

He said that he got a commitment from his Israeli counterparts that they would do what they could to address that violence, condemn it, and try to stop it.

But, of course, that doesn't answer the larger question of what is going to happen to the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, the ones that are being killed, the civilians, I should say, that are being killed on a very regular basis as part of this Israeli military operation and a large reason why the administration has started to shift its tone less towards kind of all-out support for Israel, in terms of unconditional support.

And more towards cautioning them behind the scenes, we're told, that them continuing to kind of launch these indiscriminate airstrikes that target Hamas commanders in densely populated areas that result in a large amount of civilian casualties, that could lead to an erosion of international support, and it could make them have more difficulty achieving their military objectives in the long run.

So, the reason that Blinken is asking these Israelis to consider this humanitarian pause at this moment is because he wants to see a situation where civilians can get out, aid can come in, and, of course, hostages can be released, but, as you said, Israel already putting their foot down, saying that they need a commitment from Hamas that they are going to release the hostages before they will entertain any kind of cease-fire.

DEAN: Natasha Bertrand for us, thanks so much for that update -- Boris. SANCHEZ: Let's dig deeper now on the situation the ground with CNN military analyst Colonel Cedric Leighton.

Colonel, always great to see you.

I want to start with news that the IDF has encircled Gaza City. What does that mean for the broader effort to eradicate Hamas?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: So, Boris, the key thing here is that notice where the Israelis have come in.

They have come in from the north, the northeast and the east. So, just to give you a quick idea of what it looks like, they come in this way using bulldozers, their tanks, their armor personnel carriers, and troops on the ground who are moving forward in each of these directions.

And every single one of them has a particular mission. In this particular case, they captured this town hall and raised the Israeli flag there. So these are the kinds of things that they're doing. And the idea is to take over this area, as much of it as they need to, and then go in and encircle Gaza City right in through here.

And that is basically what they have been doing. They're moving this way in order to basically force Hamas fighters into this area, so that they can't escape.

SANCHEZ: Yes, described by the IDF as the heart of Hamas' operation in Gaza.

I want to ask you about Hezbollah. Obviously, we heard from the leader of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, today a lot of threats against Israel, not many specifics. It didn't sound like war was imminent. But if Hezbollah decides to get involved, what does that look like?

LEIGHTON: So, basically, what we're doing is, Nasrallah has left open his options.

And just a quick note of comparison here. Hamas, the group in Gaza, the Sunni political group, up to 25,000 fighters, 7,000 rockets. Look at Hezbollah, Shia, aligned with Iran directly, as is Hamas, but not as directly, and then they have about 50,000 estimated active personnel and as many as 150,000 rockets.

So when you look at all the different areas that they could possibly be involved in, the key thing is right here, the Israel-Lebanon border. On this side of the border, you have got Hezbollah. And this would then -- if Hezbollah got involved, it would mean a second front in the war. And that then means that Israel would have to divide its forces even more between the south and the north.

SANCHEZ: The U.S., as an ally to Israel, has tried to bolster its presence in the region.

Notably, CNN has new reporting about drones in Southern Lebanon that are listening in, trying to detect any sign that an escalation by Hezbollah might be imminent, and also U.S. carrier groups in the Mediterranean.

LEIGHTON: Yes, absolutely.

[13:10:00]

So you have got both the Gerald R. Ford and the Eisenhower. Both of them are conducting maneuvers right here in the Eastern Mediterranean. So, they're right off the coast of Israel, Lebanon, and Gaza. So they're doing that from the carrier perspective.

Now, the other thing to look at here, the drones that you mentioned earlier, this is Flight24 surveillance tracking of the drones. They're about -- these are the MQ-9 Reapers. There are six of them that they believe have flown over the Gaza area. This is the principal drone that the U.S. military uses.

It's an Air Force drone, has a ceiling of about 50,000 feet. That's the altitude that it flies at. It's an intelligence collection mission. So, basically, what it does is, it's able to really look at what's going on, on the ground using imagery and, in some cases, signals intelligence to figure out exactly what is happening on the ground and then relays that to the operational commanders for further decisions.

SANCHEZ: Yes, and no question awareness in such a delicate situation like this, when there's so much at stake and, at any moment, anything can go awry, is key.

LEIGHTON: Absolutely.

SANCHEZ: Colonel Cedric Leighton, we very much appreciate the perspective, as always. Thank you so much.

LEIGHTON: Thank you, Boris.

Still to come on NEWS CENTRAL: employers slowing their hiring, the unemployment rate edging higher last month. Up next, why the Fed and the markets are actually happy to see these new numbers and, more importantly, of course, what it all means for your wallet.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:15:25]

DEAN: Still pretty hot, but clearly cooling, the October jobs report coming in a bit softer than expected.

The Labor Department reports the economy added 150,000 jobs last month. Now, that's below the expectations of 180,000 and sharply lower than the roughly 300,000 jobs added in September. But -- this is important -- October is also the first jobs report to include the fallout from the massive auto strike, that dispute between the UAW and the Big Three automakers now largely resolved. But the Labor Department reports strike activity was the main culprit

here for the loss of about 35,000 manufacturing jobs last month. And, on Wall Street, the markets welcoming the softer numbers actually, because experts believe the Fed will now be under less pressure to raise interest rates.

Let's dig in a little bit deeper with CNN economics and political commentator Catherine Rampell.

Catherine, always great to see you.

Is this slowdown kind of a sweet spot? Or how should we interpret all of this? Because it is lower than expected, but I just was talking about Wall Street liking this, because they're hoping now the Fed won't raise interest rates.

CATHERINE RAMPELL, CNN ECONOMICS AND POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: There are certainly a lot of people who view this as a somewhat of a Goldilocks report, as in the economy is not so hot that it'll force the Fed to continue raising rates. It's not so cold that it suggests we are facing an imminent recession.

That would be the ideal scenario. That said, I do think there are some signs of weakness in the report, even beyond the ones that you just flagged, things like, for example, the length of the average workweek has been going down. So people aren't losing their jobs, but they are working fewer hours in any given job, as well as the fact that, almost every month so far this year, the initial numbers that have come out have subsequently been revised downward.

And that was the case, for example, for September as well. So those kinds of things suggest that there are some vulnerabilities in the economy, even if they are not obviously outright signs of recession.

DEAN: And I want to, with all of that in mind, going back to that question of interest rates, because I know a lot of Americans and people watching, that's what they're concerned about. Can I buy a house? Will those rates keep going up?

What do you think any sort of pause could mean for the average American, if they do decide to just pause and continue pausing those interest rates?

RAMPELL: Markets definitely think that the Fed is going to continue pausing.

If you look at where markets are pricing various kinds of Treasury instruments, they don't think that the Fed is going to raise rates. In fact, there are a number of market participants out there who think that the next move from the Fed would involve cutting rates potentially some time early next year.

If that were to happen -- and, again, it's anybody's guess -- that could potentially translate to lower borrowing costs for regular consumers for things like auto loans, credit card loans, et cetera. The one wrinkle in all of this is that longer-term Treasury yields, so these are things like the 10-year Treasury yield, which the Fed is not directly targeting with those rate hikes, those have still been very, very high.

That's part of the reason why you're seeing, for example, very high mortgage rates lately. So, even if the Fed doesn't choose to raise rates or even, in fact, cuts rates in the near term, some of these other factors may still keep mortgage rates for people who are trying to buy a home very elevated.

DEAN: And let's talk about the strikes' impacts, because I noted at the beginning of this 35,000 manufacturing jobs they said were lost as a result of those ongoing strikes, which have largely been resolved.

Do you expect that that kind of levels out as we move forward now? Have we seen the extent of that damage, or will we continue to see that play out?

RAMPELL: As you noted, most of the decline in manufacturing is directly traced to the strike activity, and so most of it, I think, will revert backward as these strikes obviously get resolved, but not all of it.

And some other indicators within the U.S. economy do suggest other signs of stress and trouble within the manufacturing industry writ large. So, for example, there's another survey, another metric called the ISM Manufacturing Index, that has shown that the manufacturing sector has been in recession for every month of the past year.

So the strikes alone are not the only culprit here that are straining the manufacturing sector. And so I don't know that it's a safe bet necessarily to think that, now that the strikes are getting resolved, that suddenly things will be hunky-dory.

I think that industry is still very much under strain, in part because, as we have been discussing, of those high interest rates.

[13:20:02]

DEAN: Right. Right.

And I want to ask you one more thing before you go. You have noted that prime working-age women's employment hit a record high a few months ago. It's since plateaued. And you say that's a really crucial metric to watch, especially because there's a major federal subsidy for childcare that's set to expire.

RAMPELL: Yes, it has been this remarkable story in the past few years, in fact.

What had been so-called she-cession, women's -- women disproportionately hurt by the pandemic recession, has reverted into a she-covery, that prime working-age women have achieved these record highs in their ability to participate in the labor force and to hold jobs.

And it's been a little bit of a puzzle about why that's been happening. But I think one key to that has to do with the fact that childcare has been subsidized. There has been this major federal program keeping the struggling childcare system afloat. That program just lapsed.

That money has now expired at the end of September. And there's a real question about what happens to childcare providers going forward and what the knock-on effects are for the families that rely on those childcare providers if they decide to pull back or close entirely, because, when workers can't have care arrangement for their kids -- care arrangements for their kids, they will struggle to continue showing up to work.

And that disproportionately hurts working women, i.e., mothers in particular. So, the fallout from that, I think we haven't yet seen. We have seen Biden request additional funding to keep the childcare sector afloat. But, so far, House Republicans have basically rebuffed that. And I think I will be watching that going forward to see what happens to women's labor force participation and employment rates.

DEAN: It will be so very interesting to watch all of that. And then you look at Capitol Hill right now, and the idea of passing any sort of bipartisan legislation like that that could get through both chambers is a tall order.

All right, Catherine Rampell, thanks so much, always, for your analysis.

Hezbollah's leaders say all scenarios are possible on the Lebanon- Israel border and is warning Israel against further escalation. We're going to have much more on the fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East.

That's ahead on CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:26:52]

SANCHEZ: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says there will be no temporary cease-fire unless all hostages held by Hamas are freed.

That's despite Secretary of State Antony Blinken calling for a pause today as he met with Israeli leaders in Tel Aviv. Meantime, in his first public remarks since the conflict began, Hezbollah's leader praised Hamas' attacks on Israel, while adding that Hezbollah's primary goal is a cease-fire.

Hassan Nasrallah said the possibility of a larger regional conflict with Israel is a -- quote -- "realistic option."

Joining us now to discuss is "Washington Post" columnist Josh Rogin.

Josh, great to be with you.

The leader of Hezbollah making a lot of threats, but nothing really specific. JOSH ROGIN, "THE WASHINGTON POST": Right.

There were basically three parts to his speech. There were the denials. We didn't do it. We didn't know about it. He's talking about the October 7 Hamas' attacks, said this was Palestinian-run, they didn't tell anybody.

Then the threats, which are, if Israel doesn't do A, B, and C, we could widen the war. That stopped short of an actual promise to -- for Hezbollah to join in the fighting...

SANCHEZ: Right.

ROGIN: ... which is what a lot -- I'm sure a lot of Hamas terrorists were hoping for. So, in that sense, it could come as a disappointment to Hamas.

But he promised to keep up the minimal attacks on Israel, to keep them busy, to keep them occupied, and to make sure that they can't fully devote their resources to Gaza. And then there was some pretty conventional analysis in the speech.

He said basically that he thinks Israel has bitten off more than it could chew, that they have set ambitious -- overly ambitious and lofty goals, and that they should have learned the lesson about doing that in past invasions, including the 2006 war with Hezbollah in Lebanon.

And I think that's, like, pretty standard analysis. So, I mean, in a sense, he's mixing his lies with the truth.

SANCHEZ: Not a surprise for him to ask for a cease-fire. He joins a chorus of people that have suggested that there should be a pause in the action, whether you want to call it a pause or a cease-fire, et cetera.

Israel has been reluctant to stop its retaliatory attacks on Gaza. The U.S. has tried to pressure Israel to do so, but it doesn't seem to be actually carrying weight with the Israelis.

ROGIN: Well, that's right.

And that's what Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in the region to do. He's not there to stop the war. He's there to help manage the war. He's there to set some sort of processes where they could keep fighting for what could be weeks or months or even longer.

And this idea of having humanitarian pauses is not new. The idea of getting fighters out, even getting civilians out, getting some people who are trapped out, getting some aid in, they do this in Ukraine. They do it -- they have been doing it in Syria for 12 years. It's a complicated thing where every side has to get something.

And, right now, the negotiating positions are too far apart for it to work. That's what he's there to do, to narrow those positions...

SANCHEZ: Sure. ROGIN: ... to set a precedent, so that they can keep fighting, not so

that they can stop fighting.

So far, no, he hasn't been successful. And it doesn't seem like either side is listening, to be honest.

SANCHEZ: The Israeli argument is that, if they stop, then Hamas can regroup and that they won't release hostages, but, rather, that they will strengthen for more terrorist attacks.

Is that a fair assessment?

ROGIN: I don't think there's any scenario where you can bomb 24 hours a day, seven days a week forever.

At some point, this humanitarian option is going to have to come into play. We're seeing it play out a little bit in Rafah.