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Trump Expected To Appeal Colorado, Maine Rulings Tomorrow; Maersk Ship Attacked By Houthi, U.S. Navy Sinks & Kills Rebels; NFL Playoff Picture Coming Into Focus. Aired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired January 01, 2024 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:30:00]

RAHEL SOLOMON, CNN ANCHOR: Both sides would just like some clarity from the Supreme Court on this issue of the states. Speaking of the Supreme Court, yesterday, Democratic Congressman Jamie Raskin suggested that Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas should, if they pick this up, recuse himself from a future ruling on whether Trump can be disqualified from the 2024 ballot under the 14th Amendment. Tell us more here, Zach.

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SECURITY REPORTER: Yes. Raskin sort of jumping ahead to this, if the Supreme Court does decide to take up this issue, you know saying that Clarence Thomas, a conservative judge, who's married to a woman named Ginni Thomas, who was an active participant in trying to push White House officials like Mark Meadows, to keep over -- trying to overturn the 2020 election in the lead up to January 6. And he says that because of his wife's role in doing that, pushing what he called the big lie, that Clarence Thomas should remove himself from any future decision on this 14th Amendment issue. Take a listen to how Raskin explained it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. JAMIE RASKIN (D-MD): I think anybody looking at this in any kind of dispassionate, reasonable way would say if your wife was involved in the big lie and claiming that Donald Trump had actually won the presidential election, had been agitating for that and participating in the events leading up to January 6, that you shouldn't be participating in --

DANA BASH, CNN ANCHOR: So, he should recuse himself?

RASKIN: He should -- oh, he absolutely should recuse himself. The question is, what do we do if he doesn't recuse himself?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: So, first, we have to see if the Supreme Court does in fact, take this issue up. And then it's -- we'll have to see if Democrats like Raskin keep pushing for Clarence Thomas to recuse himself. But you know, a few steps ahead of that, we'll have to see what happens.

SOLOMON: Yes, one, a huge question of why do they pick it up? But then two, if he doesn't, what then? Zachary Cohen, good to see you, and Happy New Year.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Let's take on both those questions actually. And saying they're both really interesting. With me now is former federal prosecutor, and CNN legal analyst Jennifer Rodgers. We heard Zach and Rahel say, if the Supreme Court takes up this question, do we really think it's an if at this point? With so many disparate opinions, there are so many issues to play, don't they almost have to?

JENNIFER RODGERS, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: I think so, John. I mean, this is a federal constitutional question. The U.S. Supreme Court is the arbiter of what the Federal Constitution means. And so, they're just never going to allow the Colorado Supreme Court or a Secretary of State in Maine to be the final word on what that provision means.

Nor should they. This really is their job. They do have to take it up. And I think they will take it up, and they'll do it quickly.

BERMAN: The question is, in what way do they take it up? And I think to an extent, this gets to the issue of whether Clarence Thomas recuses himself, which a lot of people I think, believe is unlikely. However, the Chief Justice of the United States, John Roberts, you have to believe he wants some kind of consensus. He would love this not to be a five-four issue here, which might mean, he looks for a technical way out of this. What might that be?

RODGERS: I agree with you, John. I think that they will. I think they'll want it to be if not unanimous as close to unanimous as they can muster.

I think that they may go with the reason that the lower court in Colorado decided, which is that the officer -- the officer component isn't met here. The office of the presidency is not covered by Amendment 14, Section Three.

That seems to be the kind of technical reason. It's probably not as persuasive as the other argument that it is included to me legally, but it's certainly colorable. It's certainly reasonable.

And I think they'll look for something like that so that they don't have to delve into the tougher questions of whether Trump actually, is an insurrectionist. And so, you know, that he falls under the provision for that reason.

BERMAN: It's really interesting. You have so many so-called textual lists on the Supreme Court right now, people who claim that when they look at a case, they look at the exact text of the Constitution for their answers. And in section three of the 14th Amendment, correct. It does not explicitly say the President of the United States cannot have engaged in insurrection. But it does explicitly say someone who has engaged in insurrection shall not hold any office. So, there's a lot of room for textualists to decide either way here, perhaps Jennifer?

RODGERS: Yes, I think there is. And so, that's why we need the Supreme Court to decide it. And you know, there have been instances before even looking recently to the decisions in Bruen the gun case, and of course, stops the abortion case where you just couldn't see a legal way to do what the Supreme Court seemed poised to do and yet they managed to write lengthy opinions, citing cases and using textual arguments to do what they wanted to do, even if it wasn't persuasive to many legal analysts.

So, I think they'll get to the result they want here. They will write an opinion. It'll have lots of words and citations and so on.

Whether it's actually compelling or not, I don't know. But they will reach the result they want. And I think that that result will be that Trump remains on the ballot.

BERMAN: And I don't want to gloss over something you said in passing there. You said it may be unlikely that they actually rule on whether Donald Trump committed insurrection, which is notable because I spoke to the Secretary of State of California, who ruled not to kick Donald Trump off the ballot. She said, absolutely, Donald Trump committed insurrection. The same with the Secretary of State in Maine who did kick Donald Trump off the ballot. But in the end, the Supreme Court decision may not hinge on that issue.

[11:35:13]

RODGERS: I think that's right. I don't think they'll want to get there. And look, the facts of this matter are usually decided below, and the courts above will take those factual findings.

The issue is this is a mixed question of fact and law. There are facts that they will assume are true as higher courts do about what happened on that day and the days leading up to it. But then if you look at those facts and decide, do those facts make him a "insurrectionist" within the terms of that section? That's really the legal question that the Supreme Court I think, wants to avoid just because it's such a fraught political issue. That's why I think that they'll probably look to some other technicality that's not quite so explosive.

BERMAN: Counselor Jennifer Rodgers, always great to have you on. Happy New Year.

RODGERS: Thanks, John. You too.

SOLOMON: All right, up next for us. The first jobs report of the year is just days away. What will it tell us about the state of the economy as we enter the new year? We'll discuss.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:40:15]

BERMAN: So, this morning, the White House says it is not seeking a wider conflict in the Middle East. This after the U.S. military sunk several Houthi militant boats off the coast of Yemen. U.S. Central Command says the Naval Helicopters were responding to a distress call from a merchant vessel when they came under fire from the Iranian-back group. The U.S. then sank three of their boats, the U.S. military says killing everyone on board. CNN's Oren Liebermann joins us now with the details. And really the first of its kind direct encounter between U.S. helicopters, and these militants, Oren.

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: And certainly, the first time the U.S. has killed Houthi militants. And that's why it's such a key question here of which way is this going. We've already kept a very close eye on the Red Sea and the tensions there as who -- the Houthi is an Iranian-backed militant group in Yemen have fired on commercial shipping vessels over the course of the past month and a half.

Let's take a look at this map. You'll see the exact area we're focusing on. It is the Red Sea, a critical waterway that now many shipping companies are avoiding.

This specific area we're looking at right here, the Bab-el-Mandab Straight right there near Yemen. That's where on Saturday, a commercial vessel, the Maersk Hangzhou came under attack and issued a distress call, as it was trying to pass through or move through that critical waterway. It was hit by an unidentified object, perhaps some sort of drone or missile.

And then according to U.S. Central Command, four Houthi boats tried to attack and board the boat coming within 20 meters, so about 60 feet. It's at that point that the U.S. launched military helicopters. They say they came under fire from the Houthi boats and fired back in self- defense, sinking three of the boats, the fourth one fled, and killing the crews of those boats. That's why this is so critical to watch which way this goes.

Who are the Houthis? Well, they are an Iranian-backed Shia militant group, a rebel group in Yemen that controls much of the north of the country. Crucially, it is that bottom point there. They have launched at least a hundred attacks in the Red Sea in December 2023 against dozens of vessels. And that's why many shipping companies have decided to avoid the Red Sea for now.

It's worth noting that Maersk is one of those companies that said they were confident going back in and through the Red Sea. But after this attack on their shipping vessel, they will -- they are once again pausing that. John, it's worth noting the U.S. has tried to put together an international coalition called Operation Prosperity Guardian to safeguard commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

When Maersk announced they would start going through it again, it was a major vote of confidence. But now, we'll see how long until they decide it is safe enough once again as we watch in which direction this is going.

BERMAN: Yes. Obviously, a great deal of concern about the region. Oren Liebermann, thank you for explaining it so well. Appreciate it.

SOLOMON: All right, later this week. We will get our first big economic indicator of 2024 when the December jobs report comes out on Friday. The last report we saw in November showed another month of solid job growth with 199,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 3.7 percent.

Americans also have some other reasons to be optimistic about the economy in the New Year. Fears of recession, well, those are fading. Inflation has cooled.

Unemployment, as we said, remains low. And we could see rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. A lot of people are hoping for that.

Let's discuss this more with Catherine Rampell. She is a CNN Economics and Political commentator and a Washington Post opinion columnist. Catherine, good morning. Happy New Year. Good to see you.

CATHERINE RAMPELL, CNN ECONOMICS & POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Happy New Year.

SOLOMON: Happy New Year. Let's start with just what a difference a year makes. I mean, I don't have to tell you. I mean, heading into 2024, it's a very different sort of forecast. Let's start with the jobs report on Friday. What are you watching for?

RAMPELL: Well, it looks like if you look at forecasts from Wall Street economists, we are expecting somewhat of a slowdown, but by no means a collapse. The forecast that I had last seen was about 170,000 jobs in December versus 230 some odd jobs on average -- 230,000 rather some odd jobs on average over the prior year. So, a slowdown but still relatively solid growth.

The one thing I will be paying special attention to is what happens to women's labor force participation. Earlier in 2023, we saw the share of so-called prime working-age women who are working at an all-time high. Despite fears of a she session having a scarring effect on women in the workforce, women are doing better than ever. But I do fear that some of those gains may be eroded in the months ahead because of problems with the childcare sector.

SOLOMON: So, Catherine, what's the takeaway if you're watching this, and you're maybe thinking, do I switch jobs if I've wanted to? I mean, what's the takeaway If unemployment is low, but hiring is starting to cool? What do you make of that practically speaking for folks at home?

[11:45:00]

RAMPELL: I think there are still a lot of job opportunities out there, thankfully. We have not seen the economy collapse. Of course, as you pointed out, this year, the outlook for the economy is much more auspicious than it was a year ago.

So, if people still have job opportunities out there, particularly ones that offer higher wages, then I see no reason why they shouldn't be trading up. Now, of course, some of those opportunities may be declining. Relative to a year ago when the labor market was really, really hot, but still quite good news for workers and for consumers, for that matter.

SOLOMON: Yes. Catherine, how do you explain the unemployment rate being at 3.7 percent is practically where it was when the Fed first started raising rates in March of 2022? No one saw that coming. How do you explain or reconcile -- I mean, did they do it? Did they -- did they get it right?

RAMPELL: It has been somewhat of a puzzle -- a happy puzzle, to be clear. But it has been somewhat of a puzzle why the U.S. economy has been as resilient as it has in the face of these once-in-a-generation, rapid fast -- record fast rate hikes. I think it has something to do with the fact that there was a lot of pent-up demand from the pandemic.

People had a lot of savings. They kept on spending. That spending fueled more job growth. And of course, we had other normalizations throughout the economy.

The immigration system, for example, had a lot of backlogs of work authorizations that were yet to be processed, some of that normalized. So, there were a number of factors that probably went into the economy's resilience. It turns out also that I think the Fed's theory of the case that they could cool the economy without causing a recession, primarily by reducing the number of job vacancies rather than putting people out of work because there were a lot of excess job vacancies relative to unemployed workers, that seems to have been borne out.

So, yes, so far, we have been very lucky. And I think it is a combination of the good outcomes we've had are due to a combination of luck and some skill.

SOLOMON: Catherine, if there's one thing that you're watching that could undo that luck, sort of a wildcard if you will, heading into 2024, what is it?

RAMPELL: Well, there's always the risk of some unforeseen shock, something like an oil shock that throws the U.S. economy and or the global economy off kilter. So, that's always a risk. But we also don't know what the sort of medium-term effects are of the rate hikes we have seen to date.

You know, they may not have fully worked their way through the economy at this point. They -- you know, when the Fed is raising interest rates, they are trying to tighten financial conditions. And as the saying goes, there are long and variable lags between the time that they put those rate hikes into practice and when they are felt throughout the economy.

So, there may be some lingering consequences coming from all of that for the commercial real estate market, for example, and somewhat for residential real estate. But those kinds of things are a bit of a wild card right now.

SOLOMON: Yes, monetary policy is famously a blunt tool. Although this time around, it's not -- it's not feeling so blunt. At least not yet.

Catherine Rampell, Happy New Year. Good to see you. Thanks.

RAMPELL: Thanks. BERMAN: Great discussion there. All right, counting down to the Rose Bowl into the Sugar Bowl, the college football playoffs, what a day ahead. Plus, the NFL playoff picture, which frankly, it's a mess. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[11:53:23]

BERMAN: Still a week left in the NFL season, and the only thing that's clear is the playoff picture. It's messy. Carolyn Manno is here with us. And it's messy because so many of the teams we thought were so good are playing so badly.

CAROLYN MANNO, CNN SPORTS CORRESPONDENT: It's so messy.

BERMAN: Yes.

MANNO: I'm not going to talk about the Eagles.

SOLOMON: (INAUDIBLE)

MANNO: I know that that is bad behavior on New Year's Day. But you're right. It's very confusing. And a lot of the teams that we thought were going to win the Super Bowl now are sputtering at a very critical time. This last week, the playoff picture so coming into focus.

What we know for sure is that the path to Las Vegas is going to go through Baltimore. The Ravens clinching the number one seed and home- field advantage after routing the Dolphins 56 to 19 yesterday. That game went about as well as it possibly could have for quarterback Lamar Jackson, who is really looking like an MVP.

We knew he could do this. He tied his career high with five touchdown passes, finishing with a perfect passer rating. So, phenomenal job by him. And this team looking really good.

Now, in the NFC, the 49ers will have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. And most importantly, they've earned a bye in the first round. That's critical.

San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy leading the way with a pair of touchdowns in the 27-10 win over the Commanders. Former Mr. Irrelevant here. A lot of people know his story. Also, breaking the team's single-season passing record if you can believe that.

BERMAN: I still can't believe that.

MANNO: I know you can't. I mean entering the day through on the list, right? You think about Steve Young and Jeff Garcia, but he set the new mark on his final toss of the day. It was a five-yard completion to George Kittle. And he deserves it.

Meantime, the college football playoffs kick off this afternoon. A spot in the national championship on the line. Top-ranked Michigan facing number four Alabama in the first semifinal game at the Rose Bowl. Everybody looking forward to that. Kickoff is set for 5:00 Eastern. And then at 8:45, number two Washington against number three Texas in the Sugar Bowl. And the winner squaring off of course for the title next Monday.

[11:55:05]

In Houston, the boys of summer, giving way to the men of winter. Seattle bringing in the new year with the NHL Winter Classic. Nearly 48,000 fans are expected to brave the elements to watch the crack and skate with the reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights. The game will be played at T Mobile Park. That's the home of the Seattle Mariners. And it is safe to say that the Kraken are really excited about hosting this event.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BRANDON TANEV, SEATTLE KRAKEN WINGER: Extremely exciting. I mean to get a Winter Classic so early on in the franchise's career, I think it's great for the city, the organization, the people of Seattle. I think that's what it's all about.

I mean, we're all very excited to be in the game. But I think it's a great way to show off the city of Seattle, the great people of Seattle and you know how great of a franchise we have here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MANNO: Coverage begins this afternoon at 2:00 Eastern. You can watch all of the action on our sister channel TNT. You can also stream it on Mac. So, we are looking forward to that. Looking forward to some college football as well today too.

BERMAN: The reason the Brock party thing shakes me every time is the West Coast offense is like named after the 49ers and what they did with Joe Montana and Stevie. Jerry Rice, you know. And to have Brock Purdy break that it's just amazing.

MANNO: No, it's incredible. And a very happy New Year to both of you guys. I missed this -- (INAUDIBLE). This four of us right here that we have. I'm going to come back here.

BERMAN: You're generous calling it moody. At least --

(CROSSTALK)

SOLOMON: You got them all --

BERMAN: But Happy New Year to you.

MANNO: Yes, you guys too.

SOLOMON: All right, still to come for us. We are of course following that breaking news out of Japan. That's where a 7.5 magnitude earthquake shook the country on New Year's Day, triggering tsunami warnings. Coming up. We are live in Tokyo. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)