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Tonight, Iowans Caucus to Pick GOP Presidential Candidate; Trump Sharpens Attacks on Haley; Bitter Cold Blankets Iowa as Caucuses Kick Off 2024 Race. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired January 15, 2024 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[10:00:00]

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning and welcome to our viewers here in the United States and around the world. I'm Wolf Blitzer along with my friend, John Berman, who are both here in New York.

It's caucus day in Iowa, and this morning, we are seeing final pitches, last-minute endorsements, and truly frigid temperatures. We're just hours away from getting the answers to some huge questions. How strong is Trump's hold on the GOP electorate? Who will come out on top in the race for second place? And will the results push any candidates to simply drop out?

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. And can they survive the cold? The weather might be the biggest story in Iowa today. It's shaping up to be the coldest caucus night in history, and that could affect turnout. It could affect people's willingness to get out the door and actually go to the caucus sites.

The candidates, though, trying to get on the campaign trail this last- minute. This is what they were saying this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NIKKI HALEY, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Today is the day we make history. Today is the day we make history because we tune out the noise of the media, we tune out the noise of the politicians and we raise the voices of Americans that say, we want a better day.

GOV. RON DESANTIS (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It is the party of the Washington, D.C., establishment. They've lined up behind him. I'm the candidate that would be a change agent in Washington D.C. and I like that contrast.

VIVEK RAMASWAMY (R), REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I am asking you for your vote to revive our nation and answer who we are as Americans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So, a final poll from the Des Moines Register showed Donald Trump with a commanding lead, at nearly 48 percent of the vote. That's among likely Republican caucus-goers. You can see Nikki Haley there in second place, Ron DeSantis in third.

BLITZER: We have team coverage on the ground in Iowa right now, and our political experts are also all standing by.

I want to begin with CNN's Kate Bolduan and Sara Sidner. They're live in Des Moines this morning. How's it going over there, guys?

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: It's cold, even inside.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: But warm in here and warm in our hearts. We are at the Mars Cafe in Des Moines, so thankful that they allowed us to come in here at the ungodly hours that we do all of this.

But it's happening. Today is the day. And I was just thinking there is often criticism of the caucuses for not being predictive enough of the end result.

SIDNER: Right.

BOLDUAN: And you've seen that the last few cycles. But what it really comes down to is it does matter. Even if it doesn't predict the end result, it does matter. It matters for momentum, which matters. It matters for fundraising, which matters. Add it all up, today is the big first nominating contest of the presidential cycle, and it's all happening here.

SIDNER: And like you said, we can stop talking about what the polls say and what we're hearing because you're going to get an actual result and we'll sort of see where people are.

But what I love about caucusing is that people are excited about politics. They're excited about policy, they're excited about candidates. You hear so much negativity around candidates and around politics. This is not the time for that. People are really into this. And to see them engage and to see Americans doing what we are supposed to do to try and further democracy is actually really lovely, even when it's negative 11 with a 30 degree wind chill.

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BOLDUAN: Iowans can handle it.

SIDNER: They can. And so can we, maybe or not.

BOLDUAN: We definitely can. We're going to make it until we make it. It's definitely the policy with surviving these temperatures.

Back to you, guys.

BERMAN: Yes, the Republican caucus-goers, they'll make it out to the caucus sites. By the way, they almost never pick the nominee. Still, though, it is the first time we can watch people vote and learn what we can.

BLITZER: We'll actually get numbers, real numbers, not just polling numbers, and that's very significant. Right now, the candidates are making their closing arguments to Iowa voters just ahead of tonight's caucuses.

CNN's Alayna Treene is joining us from Des Moines right now. Alayna, much of Trump's focus has turned to Nikki Haley right now in these last few days.

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: It has, Wolf. And I think his ramped up rhetoric attacking Nikki Haley really shows how both the former president but also his team is beginning to look at her as the closest Trump alternative, as being number two in the overall race.

And I'd say they saw the Des Moines Register poll this weekend showing Nikki Haley for the first time surpassing Ron DeSantis in that poll. And it's something that they've been watching closely, not just that poll, but many of the polls over the past several weeks that have shown Nikki Haley gaining ground both here in Iowa but also in New Hampshire, where his team is already looking ahead to for that primary next week.

Now, I want to play you some of what Donald Trump said yesterday during his rally in Indianola. He argued that Nikki Haley is not tough enough to be president and argued that she isn't tough enough to stand up to some of the authoritarian leaders in Russia as well as in China. Take a listen, Wolf.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: She's not right to be president. I know it very well, the wrong thought process, the wrong policy. And, honestly, she's not tough enough. She's not tough enough.

We're dealing with people that are on their game at a level that you've never seen, President Xi of China, Putin.

HALEY: He's saying this because now he knows he's in trouble. Now, he knows this is becoming a two-person race. So, I know that he knows the truth. It doesn't bother me at all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TREENE: So, as you can hear there, Wolf, from Nikki Haley, she says that she welcomes these attacks and sees it as a sign of her improving and her momentum heading both into Iowa and New Hampshire next week.

But, look, from my conversations with Donald Trump's team and his advisers, they argue that they are confident that Trump will win Iowa tonight. The question is by how much. And I know that they've been working hard to try and manage expectations, both with the general public and the media, but also with the former president himself trying to warn him that, look, we know that there's a massive expected turnout, but that could change, and we need to be careful about what we see as this lead as we head into tonight.

BLITZER: Alayna, I know you've been talking to several members of the Trump inner circle around the country. What is their sense? Give us a little bit more detail.

TREENE: Right. Well, I think one of the big questions is really about that turnout that I was mentioning. I think, you know, one of the key parts of their ground game strategy here in Iowa has been to find and create first-time caucus-goers, not just to rely on normal Republican voters but to try and create first-time caucus-goers.

And one of the worries, though, with that strategy is the weather and how that could affect turnout. I know that they are a bit worried about how many people will show up given this really cold weather, but also because Donald Trump is leading so heavily in the polls, they don't want people to get complacent, Wolf.

BLITZER: Yes, good point. Alayna, thank you very, very much, Alayna Treene reporting from Iowa for us.

CNN's Eva McKend is also in Iowa for us. Eva, what can we expect from the other candidates today?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, at this minute, at this hour, they are still crisscrossing the state, trying to appeal to Iowans. You know, they lost a little bit of time last week during those snowstorms, so they're trying to make up that time today.

Nikki Haley at the Drake Diner this morning, she's telling Iowans that they have the opportunity to set the tone for the country. Meanwhile, Governor DeSantis, he's expressing confidence in the ground game that his team has built out here. DeSantis, of course, going all-in on Iowa. And former President Donald Trump, he is leaning on his supporters not to be complacent, arguing that they should not take it for granted, that he is way out ahead of these polls.

But both Haley and DeSantis trying to emerge from this evening as the clear Trump alternative, time will tell, Wolf, if Iowans come out tonight and make that their choice known, if one of these candidates, either Haley or DeSantis, emerge as that clear Trump alternative. Wolf?

BLITZER: We shall see, and it's coming up very, very soon. Eva McKend, thank you very much. John, back to you.

BERMAN: A lot of people, Wolf, talking about this latest Des Moines register poll, which shows Donald Trump with a big lead, Ron DeSantis in third place. That DeSantis campaign has staked so much on Iowa.

[10:10:02]

And the campaign does think, despite its third place showing in the poll, that it has a lot going in its favor, namely organization.

Let me show you from this Des Moines Register poll in terms of who said they will definitely show up. The register asked among which candidate supporters who would definitely show up. Ron DeSantis supporters actually say they are the most likely to show up, 62 percent, his supporters the most committed. Why can that matter? Well, all we have to do is look back at 2016. The final Des Moines Register poll in 2016 had Donald Trump out in front 28 percent, Ted Cruz at 23 percent, Marco Rubio at 15 percent. Ted Cruz was seen as having the highest organized campaign, the most organization in his campaign. And, of course, what were the end results? Ted Cruz trailed by five in the last Register poll. He actually won the caucuses by more than three points. So, the DeSantis campaign is hoping they can replicate that.

And it's not the only aspect of the Cruz campaign the DeSantis people also hope they can replicate. Ted Cruz did very well among evangelicals. Let me show you where the evangelical voters are in Iowa. You can see here in the northwest, also around Sioux City, a broad swath, here in the northern central, also a few other locations, the darker, the shade, the highest density of evangelical voters.

Now, let me show you where Ted Cruz did well in 2016. You can see all the yellow here, it roughly corresponds to areas where Ted Cruz racked up the votes. This is where Ron DeSantis wants to do well tonight. Ted Cruz did it in 2016. Ron DeSantis hopes with his organization, particularly among evangelicals, that he, too, can do that. Wolf?

BLITZER: Excellent analysis, John, thank you very much.

Joining us now, CNN Political Analyst and Historian Leah Wright Rigueur and CNN Political Commentator Reihan Salam.

Leah, let's start with you. How critical is it for DeSantis to do well in Iowa tonight?

LEAH WRIGHT RIGUER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: DeSantis has to do well or it's over for him. You know, I think there has been a lot of polite talk about how he has a shot in these other states where he is more popular, but I think, ultimately, today's contest is about Nikki Haley versus Ron DeSantis, and who has the momentum, who represents the vision of the GOP beyond Trump, who's the most stable, who is running the most, I think, efficient campaign?

And then, honestly, I think beyond that, too. It's about money. Does he have the money to sustain beyond not just Iowa but also New Hampshire, where he most likely won't win? So, it's critical that he comes in second today. If not, start packing it up.

BLITZER: Who knows what's going to happen.

Reihan, Trump, certainly, according to all of these latest polls, enjoys a very huge enthusiasm gap right now. Here are some numbers. 88 percent of his supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic about going with him in the caucuses tonight. DeSantis is only at 62 percent. Haley is at 39 percent. How do you read this?

REIHAN SALAM, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think that that's certainly a big vulnerability for Nikki Haley. But another element is that Nikki Haley is targeting suburban, college-educated voters who are in parts of the state, in urban suburban centers where the streets have been plowed. And where actually, given the weather conditions, it actually might be easier to get there.

So, that's not to say that she's going know have some sort of massive victory, that's not even in the cards, but it does mean that she can do respectably.

And keep in mind, when you think about Donald Trump, he has universal name recognition. He is, to Republican primary voters, a kind of incumbent. If he does not win by an enormous margin, if he does not win a large majority, that does suggest that there's a real vulnerability and a real path for an alternative. So, I think that's what Nikki Haley is banking on. Do respectably in those areas where she has invested a lot of time and effort and then see where she goes.

BLITZER: Yes, it's an important point.

Trump, as you know, Leah, he predicted that he would win with what he called, I'm quoting him now, a historic landslide. What happens if he doesn't?

RIGUEUR: I mean, anything that he gets is going to be historic because the next closest one is Bob Dole in 1988, who won by 13 percentage points in kind of an upset victory. So, it's going to be historic. He's going to break records no matter what.

However, if he doesn't win with the kind of, I think, crushing victory that he's been talking about and talking up very loudly, part of what it does is it gives motivation to somebody like Nikki Haley. It undermines his campaign.

And, you know, I got to say, he is nervous about it. He has been spending a lot of time attacking Nikki Haley, not so much time attacking Ron DeSantis, but he's been spending a lot of time and putting a lot of money and effort, including technological kind of advantages, into efforts to woo Iowans and remind them to come out and vote for him and support him.

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Because there's a lot more at risk than simply did I win, did I win decisively, it's about, am I giving passage or room for somebody like Nikki Haley to carve out a pathway to the presidency as a viable alternative to Donald Trump?

BLITZER: Reihan, how do you see Trump's legal challenges right now impacting what's about to happen in the Iowa caucuses when he faces some 91 criminal bridges?

SALAM: Well, one of the ironies that you understand very well is that, in a sense, going back to Alvin Bragg's case against him months ago, this has actually been helpful to him. It's actually put his rivals in an awkward, uncomfortable position. It's actually led a lot of Republican primary voters who were skeptical, who might have been open to an alternative to think, wait a second, he is the victim of persecution, he's being untacked, folks are trying to take him off the political playing field. So, I think that these things, oddly enough, have been helpful at this stage. The question is, later on, if there is some alternative, will that lead to a renewed focus? Will that lead to the fact that there are a variety of different legal cases, some of which are far more potentially damaging than others? That's the question we don't yet know the answer to.

BLITZER: And so far, he's only been charged. He hasn't yet been convicted.

SALAM: That's right.

BLITZER: We shall see what happens that could have an impact. Guys, thank you very, very much.

Coming up, Nikki Haley is at the center of what is now the most expensive ad war in Iowa caucus' history. But will her ad blitz in the Hawkeye state make a real difference tonight?

Plus, the U.S. downs a Houthi missile fired at an American warship in the Red Sea. We're going to bring you all the latest developments from the Middle East. That's coming up.

And look at this, you're looking at live pictures from Iowa right now where voters will have to brave brutally cold weather to the caucuses tonight. How could these frigid temperatures, how could they affect this key event in the Republican race for the White House?

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BLITZER: Tonight, Iowans will brave below freezing temperatures to deliver the first verdict of the 2024 election. They will help determine which Republican will take on President Biden in November.

I'm Wolf Blitzer along with John Berman. He's here at the magic wall.

John, how predictive have the Iowa caucuses been over these many years?

BERMAN: Not very, not very at all, especially for Republicans, Wolf. We look back at 2016, the last time we had a competitive Iowa caucuses, you can see Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses. Donald Trump went on to win New Hampshire and the nomination.

In 2012, Rick Santorum won the Iowa caucuses. Mitt Romney went on to win New Hampshire and the Republican nomination.

In 2008, this one is interesting, Mike Huckabee won the Iowa caucuses here. The person who went on to win New Hampshire and ultimately the Republican nomination didn't even finish top three. It was John McCain who won the Republican nomination in 2008.

You've got to go all the way back to 2000 to find competitive caucuses where the person who won the caucuses ultimately was the nominee. That was George W. Bush, who won 41 percent of the vote. It is worth noting he would have to lose New Hampshire to John McCain. So, Iowa, not a great predictor often of what's to come.

BLITZER: I love the history and you do it great. It's really fascinating for those of us who are history buffs, I must say.

Walk us through how these caucuses will actually unfold and what goes through with these Iowa caucuses.

BERMAN: All right. It all begins tonight at 7:00 P.M. Central Time in all these, there are 99 counties in Iowa split up to nearly 1,700 precincts, some of the sites combined. But you show up at your caucus site by 7:00 Central, you sit down and you listen to presentations from each candidates' team. They send surrogates out to each caucus site, they give a little speech. That's step one.

Step two is you actually cast a ballot. And oftentimes, it's just writing it down on a piece of paper and handing it in. There aren't that many people at each of these caucus sites. They can be quite small. So, you collect all the ballots.

And then step number three is they count them. They count them and then they call them into a centralized location.

Now, CNN will have people at many of these caucus sites. We may get the results before they get them at central headquarters, but the Republican caucuses tend to move smoothly. And by about 8:30 Eastern Time tonight, we could start seeing some of those results roll in.

Of course, obviously this is a battle for delegates, 40 delegates at stake. Based on the caucus results tonight, the delegates begin to get allocated. It's a several step process after that, Wolf.

BLITZER: Very interesting indeed. All right, thanks very much, John Berman at the Magic Wall for us. And, Sara, over to you.

SIDNER: I love John Berman's magic wall like other people love donuts. It is always informative. I always learn something.

All right, Nikki Haley is brushing off new attacks from former President Trump. The former South Carolina governor has become a target for Donald Trump in recent weeks, as her campaign has gained momentum.

Joining me now is Doug Gross, a lawyer and former chief of staff for ex-Iowa governor, Terry Branstad. He has endorsed Haley. Just tell us why you've endorsed Haley. But, first, before that, Donald Trump is really going after Haley, not DeSantis, not Vivek, not Asa. He's going after Nikki. Why do you think that is?

DOUGLAS GROSS, LAWYER AND FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF FOR EX-IOWA GOVERNOR TERRY BRANSTAD: Well, the reason he's going after Nikki is because she's his ultimate competitor. I think after Iowa, and particularly after New Hampshire, it will be two people standing. It will be Donald Trump and Nikki Haley. So, he's trying to take her down, because his goal was to wrap up the nomination by the time New Hampshire got done. Win Iowa big, win New Hampshire big. That's probably not going to happen to his liking.

SIDNER: When you consider the fact that he is, polling-wise, the frontrunner, Nikki Haley has been criticized for not going after him, not really coming for him and sort of skirting around it.

[10:25:06]

She says that her idea is that when -- whether someone is MAGA or not is not the issue. It's the economy and other things. Do you agree or should she be going after him, because he's going after her?

GROSS: Well, in a state like Iowa where Trump is very strong, and, frankly, Trump should be over 50 percent tonight, and this should be really a race about who's going to be a strong second. So, in a state like Iowa, she has to be very careful not to alienate all the Trump base because it's very strong here. I think you'll see her sharpen her heels and her elbows once she gets to New Hampshire.

SIDNER: So, you think those attacks will start to come?

GROSS: They have to come. Once it's one-on-one, you've got to create a differentiation between yourself and the frontrunner.

SIDNER: When you look at DeSantis, a lot of people in the very beginning of all this saw him as a strong second place. Then you look at the local polling and he and Nikki Haley are neck and neck. What happened, do you think?

GROSS: Well, two things happened. One is he's just not a very good candidate. I know you love him in Florida. But in Iowa, when you go see him, he looks like it's worked a campaign. And people, when you go to a caucus campaign, and you're going almost door-to-door, you're certainly going living room to living room, people get a sense about whether or not you're enjoying the process or not. I think it's worked for him. So, I think people sense that, number one.

Number two, he was drinking out of the same well as Donald Trump. And there's only so much water in that well. And so his job was to pull those people away from Trump. The intensity that Trump support is so strong, it became impossible to do that. Healy, on the other hand, has coalesced the people that want somebody other than Trump. DeSantis didn't do that, Haley had.

SIDNER: Yes, I think you hear a lot of times you can't out-trump, Donald Trump.

GROSS: No. I mean, those people are --

SIDNER: You're either him or you're not, and you have to differentiate yourself.

GROSS: Yes. There's no gray with Donald Trump supporters. SIDNER: I want to ask you something interesting. John brought up the fact that Democrats can change to the Republican Party for one day to take part in the caucus.

GROSS: Right, and independents.

SIDNER: And independents. And about 5 percent of Democrats have done so. Could that make a difference, you think?

GROSS: Oh, you know, for Haley, it's essential that particularly independents come to the caucuses and register Republican, hopefully, more than just one day. But to register that way, I think there will be another number of Democrats do that, too.

For example, my wife was concerned about some things the Republicans were doing. She registered as a Democrat. She's going to be there tonight and re-register as a Republican so she can support Haley.

SIDNER: That's really fascinating. When you look at -- I mean, we're looking outside. You guys can't see this. We'll send you a picture of it. But when you're looking outside, the snow in some places is hip- high. It is so cold that your nose hairs freeze. I know my husband is going to be mad, I said, but you know, we all have them. And it really -- the roads are a real issue. Not so much in Des Moines. It's pretty good here.

But when you go out to some of the rural areas in 99 counties, it's hard to get to certain places. Do you think that's going to have an impact today?

GROSS: Iowans are tough and we take this very seriously. So, I think Iowans will show up. But do I think it will have a marginal impact? Yes, I think it's likely. When it's 15 below and the wind is blowing 20 miles an hour, and if your gravel road is drifted shut, you may not be able to go.

The impact of that, I think, is greater, probably, for somebody like Trump, and potentially Haley, because I think those are people that are going to support those -- the people that support those two would be less likely to turn out than to DeSantis. So, it could help DeSantis.

SIDNER: What do you think that is?

GROSS: DeSantis, I think, will attract a group of people that are what I would call people that will show up, whether wind, hail, or freezing rain. I mean, they're like the postman used to be. The kind of people that are going to support DeSantis are the kind of Republicans that always go to every caucus.

SIDNER: I got you.

When it comes to Donald Trump, there's also the factor of people thinking he's going to win big anyway, and that may actually hurt him. I think the campaign is worried about that. GROSS: Yes. Because if you think he's going to win easily, you may not mean my vote. At the same time, his supporters are more enthusiastic than the other two combine. So, if that enthusiasm is enough, that will bring him out. But the problem is, a lot of his people are first-time caucus-goers. A lot of his people are independents. They're not registered as Republicans. So, if they decide it's too darn cold, I'm not going to go, then it could be of impact for him.

So, Iowa caucuses are quirky, by definition. Expect some quirky results tonight.

SIDNER: Doug Gross, I love quirky. We will see what happens. Thank you for braving the temperatures and coming in here with us.

GROSS: I'm happy to be here.

SIDNER: All right. Wolf?

BLITZER: Sara, thanks very much. With just a few hours to go before the Iowa caucuses begin, the Republican candidates are making last- minute pitches to voters out there. Is there a chance any of them could topple the frontrunner, Donald Trump?

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