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New Hampshire Primary; Israel Offers Hamas Deal; Andrew Smith is Interviewed about the New Hampshire Primary; Supreme Court Allows Razor Wire Removal. Aired 9:30-10a ET
Aired January 23, 2024 - 09:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:30:00]
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Had another take for CNN. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ALEX SAIDEL, VOTED FOR DONALD TRUMP: And I feel that his policies are aligned with making the country more stable and economically successful for everybody. And he's the guy that I think can run the country. I don't think I'd want to go out and have a beer with the guy or hang out with him, but that's not what I'm voting for. I'm voting for someone that can run the country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Clearly a Trump supporter.
Here with me now, CNN's senior political analyst John Avlon and CNN political commentator and the host of the PBS "Firing Line," Margaret Hoover.
John, let me play a little clip, what Nikki Haley just said a little while ago. We have some live coverage here on CNN.
Listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
NIKKI HALEY (R), 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to South Carolina. We have put in the ad buy. We're there. This is -- this has always been a marathon. It's never been a sprint. We wanted to be strong in Iowa. We want to be stronger than that in New Hampshire. We're going to be even stronger than that in South Carolina. We're running the tape.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Well, what do you think, John, is this make or break -- a make or break day for Nikki Haley right now?
JOHN AVLON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST AND ANCHOR: This is a day that's a hinge of history, not just for the Haley campaign, but I think for the Republican Party and our republic. I've written columns in the past about how, for example, if John McCain had won South Carolina in 2000, American history is different.
If Nikki Haley has a strong showing or beats Donald Trump in New Hampshire because of independent voters and open primaries, that changes the trajectory of the race in fundamental ways. I think now that it's down to a two-person race, she's got every reason to stick it out. There will be a lol of, you know, conventional wisdom calls for her to get out if she doesn't exceed expectations.
But this is about something bigger, right? I mean you just heard that voter for Donald Trump. Reluctant. Also saying that he thought Trump offered stability. Donald Trump offers a lot of things. Stability is not one of them. Political or personal.
BLITZER: Yes.
AVLON: And the implications for our country are massive today. And we all need to keep that in mind. Every person in New Hampshire has a chance to change the trajectory of American history today. Tomorrow is too late.
BLITZER: Margaret, it's clear that Haley, in recent days, has sort of escalated her attack, her criticism of Trump. But is it too late?
MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It's not too late. Not -- it's not too late until the voters have voted. And what she's doing there, intentionally, is trying to get independent supporters out because this is essentially a race between independent voters in New Hampshire and Republican voters in New Hampshire, because we know Republicans are enthusiastic about Donald Trump. But if there is a large turnout, 300,000 or over, and 50 percent of those are unaffiliated New Hampshire voters, then she's got a race. And if she can close that margin, I think it's got to be between 4 percent and 6 percent, that's a win.
And the governor of the state very clearly told us that last week. Told me that last week. If she can have a tight margin, even though it's a two-person race, and have a huge, enthusiastic turnouts of unaffiliated voters, that will change the trajectory because, in Iowa, actually there was very low turnout.
AVLON: Yes.
HOOVER: The problem has been an enthusiasm problem because people just think this thing is over. But it's not over. Today matters.
AVLON: Yes. And I would just say, look, Donald Trump is functionally the incumbent. We talk a lot about how, you know, no -- no non- incumbent won both, you know, Iowa and New Hampshire. Donald Trump's the incumbent for a large base of the Republican Party.
HOOVER: Yes.
AVLON: We've never had a situation since Grover Cleveland where a former president's running again. You liked my Grover Cleveland reference there I can tell. BLITZER: Yes.
AVLON: But -- but I think the real issue here is, Margaret's right, you know, New Hampshire and Iowa are two great states, but together less than 1 percent of the population. Seven percent of Iowa Republicans voted for Donald Trump. We'll see what happens today. In fact, it's an open primary where the plurality of independents, i.e. more independents than Democrats and Republicans, makes it look more like America, has a big, strong contingent of moderates as well. But -- but, you know, the American people deserve nominations that aren't coronations. And so hopefully we'll have a robust fight to really take in the stakes.
BLITZER: What happens to the anti-Trump Republicans if Nikki Haley can't pull it off today?
AVLON: Well, I think they need to coalesce. I think, you know, look, 25 percent of the Republican Party will not support Donald Trump under any circumstances they say. Thirty-seven percent will support him no matter what he does. Another 37 percent are persuadable and they often will go with the -- with the crowd. I think they need to figure out an alternative path and -- but I think for now (INAUDIBLE).
HOOVER: But the real risk -- I think I'm more qualified to talk about this than you as a -- as a Republican.
AVLON: You are. You're a Republican.
HOOVER: But I -- the risk -- and this is what every political consultant on Nikki Haley's team and everybody else will tell you when the door is closed, is the risk is that those voters don't turn out in November, right? That there's massive depression in terms of turnout and enthusiasm.
BLITZER: Those Republican voters?
HOOVER: Those 37 percent of Republican voters who could be persuaded either way. But when we're barraged with the next nine months of court cases and Donald Trump saying exactly what he's going to do, which, by the way, has real policy behind it now, and isn't popular broadly, that the risk is that we have a very low turnout election that ends up electing a very unpopular president.
[09:35:01]
BLITZER: How closely you think are Democrats right now watching what's going on in New Hampshire?
HOOVER: I -- I think they're watching it very closely, Wolf, because it's very clear that the Biden campaign and President Biden and his team feel very strongly that they will do best if Donald Trump is their opposition.
BLITZER: You agree that -- that Biden will do better if Biden is the Republican nominee as opposed to Nikki Haley?
AVLON: If Trump is the nominee. Yes, no question about it.
BLITZER: I mean if Trump is the nominee.
AVLON: Yes, no question about it. I mean polls show that very consistently. Nikki Haley has a much -- has a significant edge over Joe Biden. When it goes to Biden/Trump it's very close. Democrats have got to be careful what they wish for again. You know, there were folks in 2016 who were chortling about this, and while he's never won the popular vote, you know, folks can sneak in, particularly with independent voters on the ballot.
I think you've got to think more about what's good for the country right now. Look, you know, Dean Phillips, we'll see what he gets, you know, because he's -- Joe Biden's a write-in. But Democrats should be paying very close attention. I think a lot of Democrats haven't woken up to the reality of the likelihood that Donald Trump will be the nominee for the Republican Party, a man who tried to overturn our democracy the last time around.
BLITZER: And you agree that Nikki Haley potentially could be a stronger challenge to Biden than Trump?
HOOVER: I think there's no question. I think that's why the Biden folks hope it's Trump.
But, look, even -- even in the state of New Hampshire that's voting today, the governor of the state says, no question, if it's Nikki versus Trump -- if it's Nikki versus Biden, Nikki wins New Hampshire. If it's Biden versus Trump, Biden wins New Hampshire.
AVLON: Yes.
HOOVER: There are states all over this country and congressional districts all over this country which the Democrats will benefit from in a Trump/Biden matchup that they will not benefit from if it is a Nikki Haley and Biden matchup.
BLITZER: Margaret Hoover, John Avlon, guys, thank you very, very much.
AVLON: Good to see you, Wolf.
BLITZER: Nikki Haley, by the way, will be joining CNN's Dana Bash later today at noon eastern for "INSIDE POLITICS." Dana goes one on one with the Republican presidential candidate on this truly pivotal day in New Hampshire.
And coming up, a CNN exclusive. Sources now say Israel is offering an extended cease-fire and safe passage for Hamas leaders out of Gaza in exchange for the release of all of the remaining Israeli hostages. We're live in Israel where the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is facing increasing pressure. That's coming up next.
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[09:41:47] BLITZER: Much more, of course, coming up on this historic, very important day in New Hampshire. But there's other important news we're following as well.
New this morning, for example, under increasing pressure to bring hostages home, we're now learning that Israel is offering what an Israeli official is calling an initiative to Hamas. Israel says it will agree to a two-month cease-fire in exchange for the release of all the Israeli hostages being held in Gaza.
CNN's Jeremy Diamond is joining us right now live from Tel Aviv.
Jeremy, can you walk us through what's in this brand-new, very significant proposal?
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, the details of this proposal were first reported by "Axios." And effectively it would lead to a phased release of all of the hostages over up to two months. And two months is the longest pause in fighting that Israel has put on the table as far as we understand in the course of these negotiations. The last time there was a hostage deal, that was a week-long pause in the fighting. But now Israel is talking about up to two months. The phased release would first see women, 60 plus-year-old men, as well as those needing critical medical care released first before getting to the remainder of the hostages. It would also involve securing the release of the bodies of those 28 Israeli hostages who are believed to be dead and still be held by Hamas. It would involve a movement of Israeli troops during that period, moving out of major population centers inside the Gaza Strip.
Now, an Israeli official told us that there is still a lot more to go here, that this is effectively an Israeli initiative to try and build out a framework for negotiations and that many steps still need to be taken. But it is clear that there are some very intense, very serious negotiations at this hour between Israel and Hamas mediated by the Qatari government, the Egyptian government, with the assistance of the United States.
A spokesman for the Qatari government saying that there are serious discussions and that they are receiving constant replies from both Hamas, as well as Israel, indicating that these talks are very much back on after a long period of time where there really wasn't much seriousness to these negotiations, much activity, much back and forth in these talks.
And it comes, of course, as there is significant pressure here internally on the Israeli prime minister from the families of those hostages, demanding action, demanding another deal. And all of that, of course, is certainly playing into this as the Israeli military continues its ground offensive in Gaza with a major offensive now underway in the southern city of Khan Yunis.
Wolf.
BLITZER: As that major offensive continues, what, 21 Israeli soldiers yesterday were killed in action, is that right, Jeremy? DIAMOND: Yes, Wolf, this was the deadliest single incident in -- since
the beginning of this war for Israeli soldiers. And the deadliest day, 24 soldiers all together killed yesterday. The 21 who were killed in the incident yesterday, we're told that around 4:00 p.m. a rocket propelled grenade hit a tank where those soldiers were operating. Two soldiers were killed inside that tank, 19 soldiers were killed inside those two buildings after there was a simultaneous explosion. The Israeli military doesn't know yet whether the RPG was responsible for that explosion, but it did happen at the same time.
[09:45:01]
And the Israeli military is now conducting an investigation into this. The Israeli prime minister said this was the most difficult day for Israel since the beginning of the war. When you just think about the scale of that, 24 soldiers killed in one day, represents about 10 percent of all Israeli military losses since the beginning of this war. In a small country like Israel, that is having massive reverberations across the country.
Wolf.
BLITZER: And most of those Israeli soldiers who were killed were reservists who had been mobilized, what, two or three months ago to active duty.
We're watching all of these developments unfold. A very, very significant development indeed.
Jeremy Diamond, in Tel Aviv, thank you very much for that report.
Kate, back to you.
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, thank you so much.
Back here in New Hampshire voting is underway in this first in the nation primary. Almost all polling locations are open now. And Nikki Haley is looking for momentum. She needs this. And so does Donald Trump. And he made that clear last night at his rally.
Listen.
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DONALD TRUMP, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES (R) AND CURRENT U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE (R): We just got some in. They're fantastic polls. But assume you're one down, please, OK, and get out of bed and just get to vote. Grab your neighbor. Grab everybody. You've got to -- you got to go out because we have to win by big margins. And the reason we have to do that, Al, it's very simple. You know what the reason is? In November. We have to send the signal that we're not playing games. This country has gone to hell.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BOLDUAN: Joining me now is Andy Smith. He's the director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. It's great to have you here in person.
ANDREW SMITH, DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF NEW HAMPSHIRE SURVEY CENTER: Thank you. Good to see you.
BOLDUAN: Good to see you. And I will point out very quickly, look at the tie. His New Hampshire tie comes out, oh, once a --
SMITH: Every four years.
BOLDUAN: Every four years, and then back to the back of the closet.
Nikki Haley this morning at a polling location in Hampton, she was asked to define what a strong finish is in New Hampshire. She said, we'll know strong when the numbers are coming in. What do you think is -- well, how would you weigh in on that?
SMITH: Well, candidates have to beat the expectations that they set or the press sets for them. And I think for Haley, based on the polls right now, it's 10 to 15 percentage point gap between her and Donald Trump. Really for her to be successful in this state, I think she has to win, frankly. Not come close. Not finish within a better gap than she had in Iowa. But she has to win because the road after New Hampshire gets very, very, very narrow for her and she doesn't have many opportunities to win anywhere else after New Hampshire.
BOLDUAN: Last week when we spoke, Nikki Haley had said that she's a stone's throw from Donald Trump here in New Hampshire. And you had this great line, you said, "she's a stone's throw but she better have a pretty good arm to make up the last distance." Since we talked and the note -- since -- in the data that you're seeing, do you have an indication that she has made up more of that gap?
SMITH: Not really. I think it's just actually expanded. And -- because she really didn't need a two-person race. She really wanted -- or should have wanted a four-person race. She needed Ron DeSantis to stay in. She needed Vivek Ramaswamy to stay in. Because they were pulling votes from Donald Trump. They were not taking votes from her. And she needed to pull Trump's numbers down, as well as get hers up. Her numbers went up when Christie dropped out, but Trump's numbers have gone up as the other two have dropped out.
BOLDUAN: Andy, the secretary of state is predicting record turnout today for the Republican primary. What benefits if 322,000 people show up for the Republican primary?
SMITH: I think Haley benefits from that because there's a limited number of registered Republicans out there and the gap will be made up by the undeclared voters who end up showing up for the primary. And our polling and other polling has indicated that she does much better among that group of people. But they'd have to come out in really high numbers in order to make up the distance that Trump has among the registered Republicans. He's gotten very strong support among registered Republicans who tend to be older, who tend to be more regular voters. Registered Republicans turn out at higher rates than do undeclared. So, the undeclareds, if they come out, it's going to help -- it's going to help Haley some. BOLDUAN: Tonight, as the polls close, as things start coming in, what
would a surprise look like to you after all -- so many elections that you have -- so many primaries you've watched?
SMITH: If Haley can get it within five points of Trump, that would really be a surprise to me. That would be -- it would drive the media coverage going out of New Hampshire for a while. So, I think that would be good for her, but I just don't think that she's got many opportunities to build momentum off of that because it won't show that Trump's wounded.
Trump's message, even if it's close, is going to be that the Republican establishment ganged up on me in New Hampshire, that those Democrats and independents were the ones who really got me over the top not -- or her over the top, not real Republicans.
BOLDUAN: Uh-huh.
SMITH: So, that message is going to be very hard to combat. Trump's been very good at making sure his message is the message that people in the press react to.
BOLDUAN: How would you describe the change you've seen over the years in the makeup of the Republican Party in New Hampshire?
SMITH: Well, when I moved here the Republican Party tended to be much more of a middle class, upper class party. It's now the blue-collar party of the state. The Democrat Party is the economic and social elite in New Hampshire.
[09:50:01]
The Republicans coalition are those kind of blue collar guys that you see across the country. And that support now is heavily within Donald Trump, the MAGA supporters. And he got them out to vote where in the past they didn't.
BOLDUAN: Do you think this -- this could -- this primary could also have -- make a definitive final statement on, is this Donald Trump's Republican Party in New Hampshire, or if there's an opening for people who have said that they're ready to move on?
SMITH: Well, in New Hampshire, I think there's an opening for people who said they're ready to move on. I think that's why you're seeing so much less enthusiasm for Donald Trump this year than there was in 2020 or 2016 because the drama gets old after a while and I think that Republicans here are -- they'd still like to see somebody more conservative, maybe somebody with Trump's policy issues, but they want like Trump without the Trumpiness, I think, is where New Hampshire is going and there's going to be a lot of people that will step up to fill that.
BOLDUAN: Andy Smith, it's great to have you here. Thanks for coming in.
SMITH: Great to be here. BOLDUAN: On primary day no less. It's good to see you.
Wolf, back to you.
BLITZER: All right, thanks very much, Kate.
The U.S. Supreme Court says the Biden administration can cut down razor wire that Texas put up along the southern border, but it's still up, at least right now, and the Texas governor says this fight is not over.
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[09:55:09]
BLITZER: This morning we're also watching the razor wire along a very busy stretch of the Texas border with Mexico. U.S. Border Patrol is awaiting an all clear to cut it down after the U.S. Supreme Court gave the go ahead to remove it in a 5-4 vote. Overnight, the Texas governor vowed, and I'm quoting him now, "this fight is not over."
CNN's Rosa Flores is in Eagle Pass, Texas, right near the border. She's joining us live right now.
Rosa, when can we expect the removal process to actually begin?
ROSA FLORES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Wolf, let me show you around because this is the razor wire that's at question. And you can see that there are several layers of razor wire before you get to the Rio Grande. This is what all of this is about. What will happen to this razor wire.
I can tell you that we have not seen a change in posture on behalf of the Texas authorities here. And we have not seen the presence of U.S. Border Patrol in this area either.
According to a law enforcement source, U.S. Border Patrol, they are reviewing that order issued by the U.S. Supreme Court, trying to figure out exactly what that means. We're hoping to learn more later today. The U.S. DOJ has not commented as of yet.
But this is what's at question. Will it be removed. Those are the questions that we're asking. And we really have to speak about the case that started all of this to give you the background.
This legal fight started last year. That's when the state of Texas sued the Biden administration over this. But this case gained more prominence in the last two weeks after the state of Texas decided to take command and control of a public park and miles of the Rio Grande where this razor wire is deployed. That's when the U.S. Department of Justice went to the U.S. Supreme Court asking for the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene, in essence arguing that U.S. Border Patrol cannot enforce federal law given all of this razor wire because they don't have access to the areas where they normally enforce federal law under their jurisdiction. Well now that the U.S. Supreme Court has ruled in favor of the Biden
administration, as you said, Wolf, the state of Texas saying that they're not backing down and that they're not changing their posture here.
Wolf, back to you.
BLITZER: Interesting. A very significant development.
Rosa Flores, thank you very much.
Sara, over to you.
SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf, I'm going to tell you right now who I'm voting for. I am voting for the crepes with cream and strawberries here at Chez Vachon in Manchester. They have to be like the best in the country. Now that I've gobbled those down, though, now to some serious news.
Nikki Haley trying to differentiate herself from Donald Trump, telling voters here that enough with the chaos, there is quote, as she put it, "no drama with me." But what is actually driving New Hampshire voters to the polls today? We'll have the latest on the first in the nation primary, coming up.
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