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Haley Campaign: "Not Going Anywhere, See Y'all In South Carolina"; Trump & Haley Face Off In New Hampshire Primary; Israeli "Initiative" To Offer Hamas Two-Month Ceasefire For All Hostages. Aired 11:30a-12p ET

Aired January 23, 2024 - 11:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[11:30:00]

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WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, new this morning. Nikki Haley's campaign manager releasing this memo, a very detailed, lengthy memo addressing the critics who say that tonight is a make-or-break night for Nikki Haley. Among other things, the memo reads. We aren't going anywhere.

And adds, we've heard multiple members of the press say New Hampshire is the best. It's going to get for Nicky due to independence and unaffiliated voters being able to vote in the Republican primary. The reality is that the path through Super Tuesday includes more states than not that have this dynamic. Until then, everyone should take a deep breath.

Let's discuss what's going on with two special guests. CNN political analyst, the Vice President of digital content, and the host of TheGrio Weekly, Natasha Alford. Also, with us right now. Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton. Shermichael, what do you make of this memo? I assume you've read it now.

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I have, Wolf. And I think it's a bit of wishful thinking and I'll tell you why. So last year, Donald Trump's campaign, they were very, very savvy. They went across the country crisscrossing, changing the delegate apportionment rules. So essentially, you now have many states like California now, winner takes all if the one who receives 50 percent of the votes.

[11:35:05]

Donald Trump can thank former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy for that. You have states like Nevada that switch from a primary state to a caucus state. You have states like Louisiana now where if there is a fight come convention, they have to support their state's nominee for at least two ballots before the delegates can switch over to someone else.

So, the rules as they're currently situated benefit Donald Trump. And so, even if Nikki Haley wins tonight, and somehow goes to South Carolina, Donald Trump is still ahead by some estimates, 50 points. You go on to Super Tuesday, which is March 5, most of those voters there, Wolf, if you're doing a voter profile, are very conservative- leaning that benefits Trump more than it does Governor Haley.

BLITZER: Let me ask Natasha. Natasha, what do you think they were trying to achieve in this memo in releasing this memo publicly? I think that's significant as well. Can Haley win the GOP nomination without a win in New Hampshire tonight?

NATASHA ALFORD, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think when you see a memo like that, you can interpret it as a level-setting moment, right? Maybe they're trying to keep expectations low. So that way, they can own the narrative about whatever happens tonight.

But what I think really matters is about moral courage. Nikki Haley has not gone all the way in terms of her honest assessment and critiques of Donald Trump. This whole idea of him being 80 years old, somehow being a problem, let's be real.

When he's at those rallies, he's talking for hours, right? He has energy. He's able to use his charisma to really persuade and motivate those voters. So, let's stop using that line. It doesn't work.

The Chaos follows him everywhere he goes. It's a really passive statement. Why is the chaos following him, right? It's not -- it's not something that's just happening.

BLITZER: But why does he confuse Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi?

ALFORD: Right. He's probably not the sharpest tool in the box, right? That -- Donald Trump -- it's not just about age, though. It's about does he actually knows what he's doing.

And he doesn't always know what he's doing. He didn't always know what he was doing. We saw that during the COVID-19 pandemic.

But he's able to persuade people by the way that he talks about the confidence that he has. And so, she has all of this arsenal that she has not used because she's still tiptoeing, trying to curry favor with certain voters. And until she does that, until she shows them more moral courage to say, Donald Trump is the wrong president for this moment, not just then, but the wrong president right now, I think she's going to miss an opportunity.

BLITZER: She's clearly counting on independents --

SINGLETON: Yes.

BLITZER: To go with her and help her win in New Hampshire.

SINGLETON: And, Wolf, again, that goes back to my original point. I mean, I've worked on three presidential campaigns. And when you start doing your voter profiles to figure out who are your voters that you need to target and engage and ultimately turn out, if I'm advising Governor Haley, I'm thinking OK, New Hampshire, moderate leaning independents. I'm looking at South Carolina.

We're probably going to lose if we decide to stay in but we're going to give it our all. The governor endorsed Trump or both U.S. senators have endorsed Trump. A litany of U.S. Congress members have now endorsed Trump. Several major evangelical pastors in the state, I know the state very well, Wolf, have now also endorsed a former president.

So, you're looking to Super Tuesday. I'm looking at states like maybe Massachusetts, maybe Idaho, a few other states that are more moderate leaning that she could pick up delegates potentially. But what the reality is, the math isn't there. She'll always be playing catch up to Donald Trump. You need 1215 to become the Republican nominee. And Donald Trump appears at this moment to be best suited to win those numbers.

BLITZER: Democrats, they're watching this unfold? Are they more nervous about Donald Trump being the Republican presidential nominee once again, or Nikki Haley?

ALFORD: I can't make sense of their confidence, you know, what's happening in this moment? Because there is a focus on abortion rights for them. I think they think that that is the winning issue to motivate people to come out.

BLITZER: It's been a good issue for them politically and some of the earlier midterm elections.

ALFORD: That's right. It's personal. It's tangible. It's different than saying I signed the CHIPS and Science Act. And we'll see these benefits down the road.

This is something that impacts people right now. The stories are heartbreaking. You know, children being forced to carry children.

Kamala Harris has seized this issue. She was out in Wisconsin this week talking about it and speaking about it with a passion that we haven't seen before. So, I think it's effective.

But also, beyond abortion, what else is the message, right? They have to hone in on that economic message. Because right now that is what people care about. They care about the bottom line taking care of their families. And so, they have to show not only what we've done, but what we're going to do with -- (INAUDIBLE)

SINGLETON: And, Wolf, if I -- if I get out just really quickly. A lot of those successes were in part because of ballot initiatives. We don't see any ballot initiatives going into this November.

So, without those initiatives on the ballot, will Democrats be able to maintain the same level of enthusiasm? I agree with Natasha, I think there will be some level. When you look at the litany of other issues that voters are concerned with, the economy, immigration, maybe they're worried about getting into another prolonged foreign conflict, where does this issue register and rank with all of those others?

ALFORD: If I may, really quickly. Joe Biden went to North Carolina and sat with a family with two sons who their student loans were forgiven. Those are the stories people will remember.

[11:40:06] BLITZER: People will remember indeed.

SINGLETON: I agree.

BLITZER: Natasha, thank you very much. Shermichael, thanks to you, as well.

SINGLETON: Thank you, Wolf.

BLITZER: As we watch Republican voters stream through the polls in New Hampshire right now, we'll take you live to Manchester for a detailed report. That's coming up in a moment.

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JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Hello, everyone. I'm John Berman in Manchester, New Hampshire. New Hampshire is where the first-in-the- nation primary is taking place. And we are covering it right here from the ground. We've been talking to voters here in the Chez Vachon diner, hearing from them, what they're thinking what's on their mind, how they're voting today with about seven hours plus left to get to the polls and cast that decisive vote.

[11:45:05]

With me now is Dante Scala, author of "Stormy Weather: The New Hampshire Primary and Presidential Politics," and Francesca Chambers, White House Correspondent for USA Today who has been chasing the Nikki Haley campaign, also covering the Democratic side. And, Francesca, first, I just want to start with you because you were actually at a couple of polling places, one in Manchester here, the biggest city in the state, and also on Concord, the Capitol. And you heard from poll workers who told you something about turnout. What did they say?

FRANCESCA CHAMBERS, WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT, USA TODAY: Well, this was both volunteers for the campaigns. This was New Hampshire voters who have participated in many of these elections. And they commented to us that they were surprised at how slow the turnout had been this morning.

We went there when the polls opened, you know when people might be voting before they go to work. And, you know, they said that they didn't see as many people as they would have expected. So, this is expected to be a high-turnout election, and there's a lot of time left in the day.

And certainly, this is anecdotal evidence based on where we went. But there was not the turnout this morning that those folks would have expected.

BERMAN: I will say it was the secretary of state who predicted record turnout.

CHAMBERS: That's right.

BERMAN: One of the jobs of the secretary of state, and Dante could speak to this is to actually promote the New Hampshire first-in-the- nation primary, so it's good for the secretary of state to always say it's record turnout.

DANTE SCALA, AUTHOR, "THE STORMY WEATHER: THE NEW HAMPSHIRE PRIMARY AND PRESIDENTIAL POLITICS": Yes.

BERMAN: Dante, we were talking during the break, I think we probably first met in the 2000 campaign, which was the first campaign I covered on the ground here, and your first as a professor here. And that was the primary on fire. I mean, John McCain swept in here in the state was just on fire with excitement.

Feels like a little bit more of a simmer this time. How would you describe the level of excitement in general about the primary?

SCALA: Yes. I think back to 2000, John McCain and New Hampshire were such a perfect match. And that last week between Iowa and New Hampshire, McCain just rolled up the score. I was shocked by the margin of victory for McCain.

This past week, it's just been -- it feels as if the Haley campaign has had trouble finding traction, like getting a good news cycle. And so, it feels as if we've been marking time this past week, rather than anticipating primary day.

BERMAN: I -- you know, I know the polls show that Donald Trump, his supporters are enthusiastic. But it doesn't feel like 2016 when they were coming out of the woodwork, at least not to me up here yet. I'm wondering if you're seeing them.

SCALA: You know what, I think Trump's just hoping for business as usual, that Republicans show up, conservatives, and vote, and that's the end of it. It's Nikki Haley, who needs to have an unusually great day, like with a huge turnout, people come out of everywhere, independents, and so forth.

BERMAN: All right. Go ahead.

CHAMBERS: So, of the voters that we had been speaking to, independents were saying that they were voting for Nikki Haley today. And so, of the voters who are coming out, she is doing what she needs to do getting those independent voters out. But of course, it will depend on how many of those independents come out for her today.

You know, we are sitting in a county that in 2016, Donald Trump, he had nearly 29,000 votes here and in nearby Rockingham County as well. So, that just shows you what kind of work that she has to do here. And in the upper parts of the state where she has also been campaigning where some of the affluent voters she's been courting, they don't have nearly as many votes in those counties as they do here.

BERMAN: Dante, give us the decoder ring. Again, we've got about seven hours. So, most of the polls close at 8:00 until they close in Nashua. If we're wearing the Dante Scala decoder ring, how can we tell where this is going as it gets later into the afternoon and into the early evening? SCALA: You know, to me, it's all about suburban communities up and down the Interstate 93 corridor that connects Massachusetts to New Hampshire. Lots of suburban, well-educated voters there. Those should be Nikki Haley voters.

Like, take the town of Bedford, right next to us here in Manchester. Very prosperous, well-educated, historically Republican, trending Democratic lately in general elections. Haley and Bedford should be named for each other. If Trump does well there, expect not just a good night, but a great night for Donald Trump.

BERMAN: He cleaned up, by the way, in those counties in 2016. I know we -- 2016 was a different time. A lot of the conservative -- heavily conservative vote went elsewhere there, and he cleaned up among the more moderate vote. But do you think Haley needs to overperform there this time?

SCALA: Yes, absolutely. I think for Trump, it's just, you know, do well in small town, New Hampshire, hold your own among kind of more prosperous areas, and you're fine. But if you start winning those college-educated towns, could be a big night, not just like an OK night for Trump.

CHAMBERS: I was speaking to a volunteer out at the polls in Concord for Nikki Haley, who said the same thing. Bedford is the place to watch tonight if she's going to blow it off.

BERMAN: Just over there. All right, Francesca Chambers, white -- Dante Scala, great to see you in person here. Again, this is where it's all happening on the ground here in New Hampshire, the site of the first- in-the-nation primary. We will continue to cover it here on the ground. Wolf?

BLITZER: John, also coming up. Will there be a ceasefire and hostage release in Gaza? What CNN is now learning about an Israeli initiative? We have details when we come back.

[11:50:01]

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BLITZER: New this morning. Under increasing pressure to bring hostages home, we're learning that Israel is offering what Israeli officials now calling an initiative to Hamas. Israel says it will agree to a two-month ceasefire in exchange for the release of all the hostages being held in Gaza. CNN's

Jeremy Diamond is joining us live from Tel Aviv right now. Jeremy, could you walk us through what's in this proposal?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, this proposal was first reported by Axios, would effectively lead to the release of all hostages over a period of two months. And as part of this Israeli initiative, as it's being termed by one Israeli official speaking to CNN, this would effectively allow for the phased release of these hostages. Starting with the remaining women still held in captivity going up to the elderly men in captivity, as well as those with medical conditions all the way up until even the Israeli soldiers being held.

[11:55:03]

And this is the longest ceasefire that Israel has put on the table as part of the negotiations. Of course, the last deal was a week-long pause in the fighting that saw the release of dozens of Israeli hostages. But one Israeli official telling us that there are still many steps that need to be taken and that this is really part of an attempt to establish a framework for negotiations.

It would also see Israeli forces withdraw from key population centers inside of Gaza, and potentially even allow the return of Palestinian civilians to Northern Gaza. But it is coming within the context of a lot of activity. A lot of negotiations with the top adviser to President Biden in Egypt and Qatar this week to see if a deal is possible to release the hostages. Separately, two sources familiar with the talks tell us that Israel has also put on the table a proposal to allow Hamas's leaders to leave Gaza.

That's according to our Alex Marquardt. But a lot of questions still remain to be solved. But certainly, Wolf, it does appear like there's some momentum, and certainly a lot of pressure on the Israeli government to reach a deal.

BLITZER: Which is true. Jeremy Diamond in Tel Aviv, thank you very, very much. And to our viewers, thanks for joining us. I'll be back later today 4:00 p.m. Eastern for our special live coverage of the New Hampshire primary. "INSIDE POLITICS" with Dana Bash and their special interview with Nikki Haley. That's coming up next.

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