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GOP Race Now Moves to Nevada, South Carolina After Trump Wins New Hampshire; Today, Biden Speaks to Auto Workers, Tries to Lock in Endorsement; Russian Military Plane With 74 Aboard Crashes Near Ukraine Border. Aired 10-10:30a ET

Aired January 24, 2024 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Nikki Haley not backing down, not giving up, even announcing a new big ad buy in her home state of South Carolina just this morning, despite Trump's win in New Hampshire and the RNC chair saying she does not see a Haley path forward.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: A plane crashes and explodes near the Ukrainian-Russian border. We've got conflicting reports this morning about what or who was actually on board.

Sara is away. I'm John Berman with Kate Bolduan. This is CNN News Central.

BOLDUAN: This morning, Nikki Haley, she's headed to South Carolina as she's very clearly banking on her home state to give her a much needed boost. It's also clear that Donald Trump wants her to bow out yesterday. And here's the statement from the head of the Republican National Committee.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RONNA MCDANIEL, CHAIRWOMAN, REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: I'm looking at the math and the path going forward, and I don't see it for Nikki Haley. I think she's run a great campaign. But I do think there is a message that's coming out from the voters, which is very clear. We need to unite around our eventual nominee, which is going to be Donald Trump.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: But Nikki Haley, she's already on the air this morning in South Carolina with a multi-million dollar ad buy slamming Donald Trump and slamming President Biden.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Biden too old, Trump too much chaos, a rematch no one wants. There's a better choice for a better America. Her story started right here, America's youngest governor, a conservative Republican. And, boy, did she deliver. (END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: How does she get a win on the board is the question now.

CNN's Kristen Holmes joins us from Amherst, New Hampshire. Kristen, what's next for Nikki Haley?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Kate. Look, it's all about South Carolina. This is the next chance she has to actually prove herself, and she has expressed confidence in the state, but so has Donald Trump's team. They believe that, yes, Nikki Haley, it's her home state, she was the governor there. But in the years since she's been there, that the electorate has changed, that it's now a more Trump-focused electorate.

And that, you know, our CNN polls really also show that. The recent poll that we had there showed that Trump was up 53 to Nikki Haley's 22 percent. That's a big margin there.

Now, as for Donald Trump's strategy in South Carolina, Tim Scott, the senator there, kind of laid it out this morning in an interview. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TIM SCOTT (R-SC): What we have to do is just focus on South Carolina, make the margins so wide, so devastating that the race is over, the donors start turning their attention.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: By Donald Trump?

SCOTT: I think it's the next two or three weeks to pull. The margins are going to get wider over the next three weeks. We're going home to South Carolina to finish this race and start focusing on Joe Biden.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Okay. So, a couple things I want to point out here. One is just the honesty in that interview that Tim Scott had about the donors. You almost never hear Trump's team say this out loud. They always say that they have plenty of money. They tout their fundraising figures from small-dollar donors, but they don't have a lot of that big money backing them.

Originally, they thought that if he won Iowa by a huge margin, then New Hampshire by a big margin, that they would turn to him. Obviously, that's not what happened. They moved over from DeSantis to Nikki Haley. They're still waiting for those high-dollar donors. So, it's interesting to actually hear Tim Scott say that.

The other part of this is what their actual strategy is in South Carolina. We've reached out if they're going to run any ads, have not heard back. But part of their strategy really appears to be trying to embarrass or humiliate Nikki Haley in her home state. I mean, they did it already the past weekend in New Hampshire. They had Senator Tim Scott from South Carolina endorse him before the New Hampshire primary and then campaign alongside him, but it wasn't just him, Scott.

It was also the governor of South Carolina who had no reason to be in New Hampshire campaigning, but was up here for Donald Trump, as well as several Congressmen who have been from South Carolina who are up here and endorsed Donald Trump. I mean, that's clearly the strategy to say that even in her own home state, people are supporting the former president.

As for, again, what their actual strategy is going to be and messaging there, that's something we're still working with the campaign to try to figure out.

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BOLDUAN: And you will figure it out. It's great to see you, Kristen. Thank you so much. John, here we go.

BERMAN: Look, I am so interested in this Nikki Haley rally tonight.

BOLDUAN: I know.

BERMAN: What's she going to say? What's going to happen in the next few hours? What is the next 12 hours look like for Nikki Haley?

BOLDUAN: We saw such a consistent message from her again and again in New Hampshire. What does that sound like in South Carolina?

BERMAN: Look, we'll be watching very carefully.

So, in the meantime, on the Democratic side, after a successful write- in campaign in New Hampshire, this morning, President Biden is focused on wooing one of the largest unions in the United States. He will speak at a United Auto Workers Convention.

CNN's Arlette Saenz is at the White House. Where and who is the intended audience here, Arlette?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John President Biden will be making his pitch today to working class voters, as he is eyeing a general election matchup against former President Donald Trump. The president believes that the New Hampshire Republican primary results really offered a more decisive insight into who Republicans will pick as their nominee with the president's belief that this race is all but locked up by the former president.

Now, Biden today will be speaking at a conference of the United Auto workers. And it comes as that critical endorsement from the union is still looming. So far, they have withheld endorsing in the 2024 race even as many unions groups have backed Biden.

One of the concerns they've expressed in the past about Biden is how some of its policies have led to the transition -- a faster transition towards electric vehicles. Now, Biden did make some inroads with the group just last fall when he stood shoulder to shoulder with them in the picket lines during those critical contract negotiations with the big three automakers. One thing that the UAW president has said is that he believes that Donald Trump would be a disaster if he were elected to a second term in office. But it's unclear just yet if the union is ready to throw their support behind Joe Biden.

Of course, there's also this debate about the union support, leadership support, versus a support amongst the rank and file. Trump has been trying to make a play for those blue collar working class voters that Biden would also need heading into the 2024 election. A UAW endorsement could have ramifications in states like Michigan and Wisconsin.

So, this is part of the constituency Biden will be trying to court today as he speaks at this conference. But it comes as the Biden campaign really feels that they have now reached the point where they are getting that Biden versus Trump matchup that they've been hoping for over the course of the past year.

The president last night really tried to drive that argument home to voters in a statement saying, quote, it is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee and my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher. Our democracy, our personal freedoms, from the right to choose to the right to vote, our economy which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID all are at stake.

And as Biden is trying to make this general election pivot, he is shifting some of his White House top advisers towards the campaign, as they're trying to have an all-hands-on-deck approach as he's working towards that November election.

Of course, the president still has a number of challenges he faces in courting voters. Part of that today is trying to appeal to those working class voters. But there's also some strains within his own Democratic coalition that the president will have to address in the coming months.

BERMAN: Some of the people he trusts most, moving from the White House to the campaign, that in and of itself is instructive.

Arlette Saenz, thank you so much.

With us now, Pete Seat., former White House spokesperson for George W. Bush, former spokesperson for the Indiana Republican Party, and Joe Trippi, Democratic strategist. Thanks to both of you.

I'm going to go back to the Republican race, which is still a race. And I want you to look at this calendar. I did a little art project here, where I put a calendar up on the board, and I circled all the days between now and the South Carolina primary.

Pete, assuming Nikki Haley stays in, she's in right now, she's got a rally tonight, she's got $4 million in spending, explain to me what all these days, until South Carolina, feel like, not just for Nikki Haley, but for all of us watching this campaign.

PETE SEAT, VICE PRESIDENT, BOSE PUBLIC AFFAIRS GROUP: Well, if you listen to her speech last night, if you read the memo, her campaign put out to pre-but the New Hampshire results.

Her rationale for staying in this race right now is that she's in the race. It's kind of like Forrest Gump running across country. You know, I've gone this far. I might as well just keep on going. That's right now her entire rationale.

31 days between now and South Carolina, whatever momentum she may or may not have, it's going to be hard to keep that up in the face of mounting pressure for the holdouts to get on board with Donald Trump.

And then you just look at the scorecard of endorsements in South Carolina, her own governor, members of the congressional delegation, statewide elected officials, all in Trump's column, she has one member of Congress supporting her.

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That hurts.

BOLDUAN: Let's stay on the calendar. These days, Joe, is it a lifetime or is it just enough time when you're talking about a lifetime or is it just enough time when you're talking about the mounting pressure, the mounting pressure from whom and doesn't matter?

JOE TRIPPI, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, I look, I think definitely think there's going to be a lot of pressure. She's already saw the RNC chair, you know, basically say, get out. That's going to increase. But the other thing that's happening is there's going to be coverage now for that month.

I mean, money doesn't matter as much in this kind of race. Once you come out of New Hampshire, it's down to two people. So her, her challenge for Trump to debate, I think, was a very smart move last night. He's not going to do it. But I think, you know, she's got a counter with that.

And I also think, look, the fact is, you know, what Trump has proven so far is that the MAGA base can get him between 50 in Iowa and 55 in New Hampshire. He's at 53 in South Carolina in the poll that you cited. The fact is she's close to get -- I mean, it was 55, 45 or somewhere in that range last night. It's not going to be a 30-point win there for him. This is going to close just because of the coverage she gets out of New Hampshire.

And the other thing I think that's being exposed here is the weakness of Trump in the places that he needs. I mean, suburbs, women, the losing moderates and independents.

And the other thing that happened last night, at least if the exit poll was correct, Nikki Haley actually gained with conservatives and Republicans. And she didn't get 25 to 30 percent of that vote in Iowa by any means, she did last night, and that could increase too.

So, I wouldn't write her off just yet. I do agree. Look, no one gets out of the race because they can't win. Ron DeSantis proved that they get out of the race because they run out of money. And that's going to be the big question over these next 30 days.

BERMAN: I think we have a shot right now of undeclared voters -- how undeclared voters, and that's largely independents in New Hampshire, how they voted, Nikki Haley won that by 31 points, Pete. I imagine that Donald Trump can't lose independents in the United States by 31 points in a general election and win. So, how much of a warning sign is this going forward?

And alongside that, Nikki Haley, there's some reporting this morning from David Drucker and Michael Warren, that her speech was designed to bait Donald Trump into acting out, being rude and it worked, right? So, how does that play with these independents, these moderates that he is losing in right now?

SEAT: It doesn't take a lot to bait Donald Trump. I think you just have to run against him to accomplish that goal. But I think she's running the strategy of 15 or 20 years ago to say, oh, look, he's attacking me. That means he must feel threatened.

We know that Donald Trump doesn't follow the normal rules of politics. Typically, we say you punch up. If you're behind, you go after the leader in the campaign. Donald Trump, he punches down, he punches left, he punches right. He punches in every single direction. That's how he operates.

I don't think just saying Trump is mean is going to change any of these dynamics. We already know that. We already know of his caustic language. We already know of his social media presence. There's nothing new about that. Donald Trump, at least in these two states, has received majority support from the Republican electorate, and I think that's going to continue.

The map is unfavorable to Nikki Haley. This is a game of delegates. And if she can't catch up in delegates, she can't win the nomination.

BOLDUAN: Okay. Real quick, I think South Carolina, one thing that is unique about -- there are many things. One thing that is also additionally unique about South Carolina as we look ahead is, this is a real test of the question of, do endorsements or do they not matter? The way it's been described is it's been an avalanche of endorsements for Donald Trump, not for Nikki Haley in her home state. What does that do you guys? Joe.

TRIPPI: Look, I don't think endorsements have mattered at all so far. I mean, DeSantis had the governor of Iowa's endorsement. You know, I mean, this is really going to come down to whether Republican voters decide they want somebody who can actually beat Biden, which I would say would be Nikki Haley, would be their best choice out of the two.

And we're seeing in Iowa 20 percent of the Republicans who voted in the caucus, I think it was 18 percent, said they won't vote for Trump if he's the nominee. In New Hampshire last night, it was over 30 percent said that.

[10:15:00] And so the more he sort of coalesces the MAGA base, that's hitting them this 53 percent in South Carolina right now, the more he pushes away the independents, the moderates, the suburban women, and, by the way, going after Nikki doesn't help him with any of those groups in terms of winning them back.

And, by the way, people go look at Joe Biden, yes, 10 percent of the electorate last night who voted on the Democratic side say they wouldn't vote for him if he's the nominee. But that's like a small fraction of what's happening in the Republican Party against Trump.

I think that's significant. I don't know whether she can grow it or not. I'm not predicting that she wins in South Carolina, but I do think it will be closer. And I think for the next month, she has a chance to make that case to the Republican Party writ large.

BERMAN: And then, Pete, there's the question of how we should all be looking at Donald Trump. Are we looking at him as, you know, the presumptive nominee who's really strong in the race or is he like a quasi-incumbent?

I mean, the guy was president just a few years ago with his grip on the party, and up on the screen here, you can see his results last night. Yes, he got over 50 percent, which is great. Compared to George H.W. Bush in 1992, when Pat Buchanan and got 38 points off of him, and that was considered a giant failure. And George H.W. Bush was seen as a wounded incumbent. Those numbers are awfully similar. Now, how do you look at that?

SEAT: They are awfully similar. I've been looking at him as an incumbent running in this campaign. I think a lot of Republicans in the end will come home and vote for the Republican nominee, but I want to touch on the endorsement question real quick.

All things being equal, I think endorsements are up there with billboards and yard signs. They don't really matter. But when we're talking about South Carolina, her home state, it makes a huge difference. And there's not a Jim Clyburn-type person who could come out and endorse her and turn the tide.

BERMAN: Pete Seat, Trippi, great to see you both. Thank you very much.

BOLDUAN: Thanks, guys.

Coming up for us, confusion after a Russian military plane crashed into the Ukrainian border. Who or what was on board? There is confusion and clearly a dispute here. We've got the latest in this developing story.

The razor wire Texas put up along the southern border still up even though the Supreme Court told, said that the feds can take it down. What the Border Patrol chief is telling CNN about when that may change.

And there's no can without Barbie, unless Oscar nominated actor Ryan Gosling now slamming the shocking nomination snubs of the blockbuster movie.

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BOLDUAN: All those on board died. That is the statement this morning from a Russian governor about a Russian military plane that crashed near the Ukrainian border and burst into flames. Russia says dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war were on board, being flown for a prisoner swap. But Ukraine says that Russian air defense missiles were actually on the plane. CNN has not been able to independently verify these conflicting claims.

Let's get over to CNN's Fred Pleitgen live in Eastern Ukraine with more on this. It seems hard to believe that both of these things can be true at the same time, Fred. What more are you learning?

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, you're absolutely right. It is certainly these claims and counterclaims and very difficult to ascertain what exactly or who exactly was on board that aircraft. But it certainly was a massive explosion that took place after that plane hit the ground.

We have that video that was posted on social media apparently showing the plane out of control. All this happening to the northeast of the city of Belgorod, which is one of the major hubs for Russia for its war in Ukraine.

That plane then diving towards the ground, seemingly possibly breaking apart or losing some sort of part of the plane before hitting the ground and igniting into a giant explosion and fireball. And, of course, it's very little wonder that the governor there, the local governor of that region, says that everybody on board that plane died.

The Russians are saying, the Russian Ministry of Defense, Kate, that it was a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile that took the plane down and that the Ukrainians launched it from Ukrainian territory. It's still pretty far away from Ukraine. So, it would have been pretty difficult for the Ukrainians to pull that off. But, certainly, we have seen the Ukrainians recently trying to target some Russian planes, both a cargo and electronic warfare plane, but also fighter jets as well.

The Ukrainians so far have been completely silent on this. They have not said whether or not they took the plane down. However, there were some Ukrainian sources, as you mentioned, that said that there possibly were missiles on board that plane.

The Ukrainians, however, Kate, are also acknowledging that there was a prisoner swap that was supposed to take place today, and that prisoner swap has now been canceled. The Russians, of course, are saying there were 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war on that plane.

Very difficult to ascertain whether or not any of that is true. But, certainly, looking at that video and looking at the fact that this is a very large Russian transport aircraft for the military that was taken down, certainly is a blow to the Russians and a huge incident also that took place there in the southern part of Russia, very close to the Ukrainian (INAUDIBLE).

BOLDUAN: Yes. Frederik Pleitgen, it's always great to see you Fred. Thank you so much for coming on. John?

BERMAN: Right. With us now, CNN military Analyst, retired Air Force Colonel Cedric Leighton. Cedric, this is where it happened in the Belgorod region, right over the border from Ukraine. There is this video aftermath of it.

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Is it possible that it could have been a Ukrainian surface-to-air missile from the Ukrainian side of the border, which would mean right about here?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: It is possible, technically. But as Fred mentioned, it is a bit of a distance and it depends on the type of missile that was used, John. But, technically, it is possible that the Ukrainians could have done this if they had the intelligence that the plane was coming in and they had the expected angle of attack that they needed, it could have been done, absolutely.

BERMAN: Now, again, this is the type of plane that was shot from the sky. It wasn't this exact plane, but the type of plane. If the Ukrainians had the intelligence that the plane was coming in, if there were Ukrainian POWs on board, presumably, they would have that intelligence too. I mean, how can something like this get shot from the sky by accident?

LEIGHTON: Yes, there are no accidents in war like this, I would say, John. But in this particular case, if it wasn't clear to the Ukrainians that there was a series of passengers on this plane and that those passengers included Ukrainian POWs, if that's the case, then they may not have known. They may just have seen the aircraft.

It's also possible to mix up aircraft. We have one coming in from somewhere, like, let's say, from another country that you want to attack, whereas you have another one that's flying in with passengers on board, that could happen.

So, if it's possible to have a mix-up, it's also possible that there were no Ukrainian POWs on board. We just don't know at this point in time.

BERMAN: No, it is a message that does -- is advantageous to the Russians, whether it is true or not.

This region, when you're looking at Belgorod right there, right over the border from Ukraine, that seems to be one of the areas inside Russia that Ukrainians have been taking the fight. Why?

LEIGHTON: Yes. Well, first of all, it's close to Ukraine, but it's also a major staging area for the Russian military. A lot of what they've been able to do in the eastern part of Ukraine and the northern part of Ukraine, that, and especially when it's focused on the Kharkiv Oblast, that means that the Russians, they just have 30 miles basically to go to the border in some places, and they can use that to their advantage. So, it's a major logistics up for the Russians and a prime target for the Ukrainians.

BERMAN: All right. Colonel Cedric Leighton, always great to have you, thanks so much. Kate?

BOLDUAN: We're getting new reaction coming in from Republicans on Capitol Hill, Donald Trump's win in New Hampshire. We'll bring that to you.

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