Return to Transcripts main page
CNN News Central
Debate Could Give Candidates a Boost in the Polls; Voters Speak About Historic Debate; Iran's Head to the Polls. Aired 8:30-9a ET
Aired June 27, 2024 - 08:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[08:30:00]
KIM WEHLE, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF BALTIMORE SCHOOL OF LAW: His project 2025. The horrors of really tyranny that he's - his team is outlining will be - he'll be emboldened to follow through on - on that plan. And I think it's - it's very dangerous for the American public.
And I would say people need to watch even more carefully in making a decision between these two candidates because it's not just between two policy platforms, it's between two different kinds of government, one that is democracy by the people, whether you like Joe Biden or not, that is how we've been for the last 230 plus years or top down, something other than democracy, what Donald Trump is promising, which is, it's my way or the highway.
SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, you and others have argued this - this could really shake the foundation of American democracy.
Kim, thank you so much for going through that with us. And we are waiting for that decision from the Supreme Court that could come down in the next couple of hours. Appreciate it.
John.
WEHLE: Thank you.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, we are on verdict watch this morning in the trial of a woman accused of murdering her police officer boyfriend. Will the jury believe her claim that she is being framed?
And we are now just hours away, twelve and a half hours away to be exact, from this unprecedented, historic CNN debate. And we've got new reporting on what the voters want to hear from the candidates.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:36:29]
BERMAN: All right, I want to stipulate that what we are about to see tonight just has no precedent. Like, not even close. A current president and a former president debating on a stage so early in a general election cycle. We just have nothing to compare it to.
With that disclosure, however, what lessons can we learn about past debates about what each candidate can get out of this?
With us now, CNN's senior data reporter, Harry Enten.
I thought that disclosure was important, Harry.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: I welcome your disclosure, John.
BERMAN: Because I do think one of the most important things about this debate is the unprecedented nature.
That said, how much can debates move things? Debates can absolutely move things. So, why don't we just take a look over the last three campaign cycle. So, these are poll bumps after the first debate, the change in margin. Joe Biden gained four points after the first debate in 2020. Hillary Clinton gain five points, which, of course, is something that we've spoken about, that Donald Trump, the last two times, that Donald Trump went out and debate in the first debate, voters reacted negatively.
Mitt Romney gained for debates out of that first debate in 2012, turned what was a clear Obama lead into a very tight race down the stretch.
And, of course, what's important to keep in mind here is, Biden's down by just a point, well within the margin of error. If we look at these bumps, historically speaking, if Biden has a good evening tonight, it could change this race completely. One in which Donald Trump has perhaps a slight edge to one in which Joe Biden might have a slight edge and all of a sudden a campaign that lot of people, not have written off, but certainly one in which there's been a lot of doubts about that Joe Biden campaign. He could be the front runner going forward.
BERMAN: Yes, and, of course, the inverse of that is that if Donald Trump has a good night, he could grow a lead to a point where -
ENTEN: They'd get - we'd get some very interesting questions ahead of the Democratic National Convention.
BERMAN: Yes. OK. So we just have to wait and see. Big changes could happen tonight.
In terms of what the candidates can fix -
ENTEN: Yes.
BERMAN: In the public perception of them -
ENTEN: Yes.
BERMAN: What do the poll say there?
ENTEN: So, you know, what are these candidates trying to do tonight? What are the weaknesses that they are trying to fix? Well, this, we've been talking about all cycle long. Seen as too old.
Joe Biden, 68 percent of likely voters see Joe Biden as too old. If he can come out tonight, be energetic, like we're being right now, he could perhaps change this perception of him as someone who is just seen as plain too old to be effective as president. So, that's what Joe Biden's looking for.
What is Donald Trump looking for? Well, voters don't think Donald Trump's too old, even though he's only slightly younger than Joe Biden. But what this consistent complaint about Donald Trump is, is he doesn't have the right temperament to be president. We see that in this poll as well, 54 percent of likely voters say that Donald Trump does not have the right temperament to be president.
That's why it's going to be so interesting to see, how does Donald - what does Donald Trump do tonight? Is he going to be what he did last time around against Joe Biden in that first debate and Hillary Clinton, you know, trying to interrupt constantly. We'll see how the muted mics might work in that situation, or does he try and throw a curve ball - throw a curve ball at Joe Biden, actually calm, dare I say be presidential, not exactly an adjective often used to describe Donald Trump's behavior, but that could perhaps work in his favorite because both of them tonight have weaknesses, which a strong debate performance may, in fact, be able to ameliorate.
BERMAN: And the amazing thing is, both campaigns know this, right?
ENTEN: Yes.
BERMAN: There is one thing that both campaigns know, and it's each of these things. And we'll see how much they've prepared for this situation.
In terms of whose minds can be changed and how much, Harry.
ENTEN: Yes, so, you know, we've spoken about this before. And it's all about the perceptions heading in, right? It's the perception. It's what happens on the debate stage and what happens afterwards in the spin room.
[08:40:02]
Undecided voters on tonight's debate. Here is what is so interesting to me because it's so different from prior years. Will do well. Trump will do well. The plurality of undecided voters believe that Trump will do well, just 34 percent say he won't do well. Joe Biden, the exact opposite situation. Will do well, undecided voters, just 38 percent. The clear majority say he will not do well. So, the bottom line is, for Joe Biden, the expectations are low.
BERMAN: Yes.
ENTEN: They are low among undecided voters. The question will ultimately be, can he clear that bar? Can you clear that bar and take care of this issue right here, which is that 68 percent who see him as too old. If he can do that, Mr. Berman, we have a very different race. If he can't do that, however, well, then I think there are going to be big questions about the Joe Biden campaign heading forward. And that is why you, I think, said, an unprecedented, historic debate. Two big words. It is.
BERMAN: Yes. They apply. They apply here. Superlatives are allowed at this point.
Harry Enten, thank you very much for that.
ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.
BERMAN: Sara.
SIDNER: All right, thank you, John. Thank you, Harry.
Tonight, President Biden and Donald Trump will have a chance to speak directly to voters who say they're on the fence about who they'll vote for in November.
CNN's John King has spent the last few months speaking with voters all over the map about what is most important to them.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Ray Flores owns a handful of restaurants in battleground Arizona and is unimpressed with both man who will share the debate stage.
RAY FLORES, ARIZONA VOTER: At this juncture, they both had four years and I'm just eight years more frustrated than I was before.
I wish we had a candidate that had more of a middle of life and middle of the road perspective. And I - I'm very uncomfortable right now with either choice.
KING (voice over): We hear that a lot. Our all over the map project is at 60 voters and counting across ten states. Yes, President Biden has his share of true believers.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Biden, Biden, Biden.
KING: You like him?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely. I think he's done a great job.
KING (voice over): So does Donald Trump,
CHRIS MUDD, IOWA VOTER: I liked what happened in our economy for four years when Donald Trump was president. I liked the America first mindset.
KING (voice over): But many voters dislike or have doubts about both, which makes this debate a critical campaign crossroads.
KIM CAVALIERE, GEORGIA VOTER: I just don't feel comfortable with Biden's age and I don't feel comfortable with Trump's mouth. KING (voice over): For the incumbent, the cost of living is a giant
challenge.
KING: Are your day-to-day costs the same now as a year ago?
FLORES: Oh, no. They're higher.
KING (voice over): Rising rents came up a lot in Milwaukee and in Las Vegas. And in other places, Biden must dominate, like Atlanta.
CAREY FULKS, GEORGIA VOTER: Everything here in Georgia is so expensive. I can only afford so much, you know, with whatever job I find.
KING (voice over): Even strong Biden supporters complain of supermarket sticker shock.
WALTER ROBINSON JR., MICHIGAN VOTER: It's just me and my wife and its $200 every time I go to the grocery store.
KING (voice over): The president's age is already part of the campaign debate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No matter how many Taylor Swift references you make, you'll never understand us.
KING (voice over): A bigger Biden problem with younger voters is anger at his handling of the Hamas-Israel conflict.
IBRAHIM GHAZAL, MICHIGAN VOTER: I don't think anybody wants - nobody wants to vote for Biden. If Biden wants to get certain votes, he needs to change course.
KING (voice over): Trump, though, also has a long list of weaknesses that could be debate flashpoints. Joan London just left the Republican Party and registered as an independent.
JOAN LONDON, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: But I had more - more of a - of a positive vision, just a different emphasis. And - and I'm - and what I'm seeing in the national party just didn't reflect my values the way it had.
KING (voice over): Linda Rooney hasn't ruled out voting for Trump, but January 6th is an obstacle.
LINDA ROONEY, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: I remember watching it from - on TV. And I - and I couldn't believe that it was happening. And I was angry that he didn't - that - that Trump didn't say something. That Trump didn't stop it.
KING: And yet you still might vote for him.
ROONEY: I might. Yes.
KING (voice over): Matt Vrahiotes is a Georgia Christian conservative pondering a third party vote because of doubts about Trump's character.
MATT VRAHIOTES, GEORGIA VOTER: Honestly, I wish that there was another candidate that would have come through the primaries instead of being just, you know, Donald Trump.
KING (voice over): Yes, many minds are already made up. But for those with doubts about both Biden and Trump, this is a giant test.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Our thanks to John King.
You'll be seeing much more of John King all throughout the day and tonight.
Joining us now to talk more about this right now though is CNN senior political analyst Nia-Malika Henderson and Washington bureau chief for the - for "USA Today," Susan Page.
And definitely relevant today, Susan moderated the vice presidential debate between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris in 2020.
It's great to see you guys.
Susan, let's do a little compare and contrast. I'll start with you.
Reasons that you think going - after hearing - especially hearing from all those voters that John King has spoken to over many months, reasons that you think Joe Biden might have an advantage this evening.
SUSAN PAGE, WASHINGTON BUREAU CHIEF, "USA TODAY": Well, he might have an advantage because he has a demeanor that doesn't put off voters.
[08:45:03]
Donald Trump can have a demeanor that does put off voters. And also because I think that Biden could have a good night because expectations have been placed pretty low, including by Donald Trump over the last several months, depicting him as - as feeble and - and mentally lacking the acuity to be president. So, if Biden shows up and does as he did at the State of the Union Address, you know, voters may say, yes, you know, he looks like he's fit for another four years.
BOLDUAN: Literally Donald Trump, I think it was on social media, says that Joe Biden is the worst debater of all time I think was how it was said at one point. And, obviously, that - that has changed.
So then, on the flipside -
NIA-MALIKA HENDERSON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.
BOLDUAN: What are the reasons that you think Donald Trump may have an advantage this evening?
HENDEROSN: Listen, it's all of the things that we heard from those voters in swing states. People are living a kind of economic anxiety. BOLDUAN: Yes.
HENDERSON: They're counting their paychecks by the number of bags of groceries they can get at the store. So - and they've lived this for a while. And so he has been good on pinpointing those kind of points of frustration that voters have around the economy, inflation, rising prices, immigration as well. I think that is a good issue for him.
Listen, he demagogues it quite a bit in that it can become a liability. But a lot of these issues -
BOLDUAN: (INAUDIBLE) tax structure - it - yes people think that it turned -
HENDERSON: Yes.
BOLDUAN: It lost in the - lost him the presidency in 2020 from that debate. But it's not an unknown commodity if he comes out in kind of that way tonight.
HENDERSON: You - I know.
BOLDUAN: Right.
HENDERSON: I think that's right. And in some ways the fact that the microphones are going to be muted, I think his kind of zaniness and his, you know, anger is going to, at some point, I think, be contained a little bit, because we saw that from the first debate to the second debate -
BOLDUAN: Right.
HENDERSON: Because there was some muting of the microphones in that second debate. So, listen, you know, if you look at the polls, it's been pretty stable. Donald Trump seems to be doing well, particularly in these swing states, within the margin of error.
But he has a lot to gain tonight by talking to Americans about these issues where they already have been living problems with the economy, with crime, with immigration.
BOLDUAN: And when it comes to presidential debates and preparing for presidential debates, Susan, it all seems very complicated. The debate prep, the setup, the mock debates, the - all the people involved with every candidate and around them, it seems highly complicated.
You say, when it comes - that debates are actually much less complicated than people make it. Tell me why.
PAGE: Yes, I think so.
You know, you and I are going to be focused on the television for 90 minutes with great intensity. America is not. A lot of Americans may watch some of it, not all of it, may depend on looking at clips that are shown on social media and elsewhere afterwards. And Americans are not scoring this like it's some high school debating tournament. They're going to say - they're going to look at these two candidates and say, who do I trust? We can't know all the challenges that we're going to face as a nation in the next four years. Who do I think I could entrust my family and my future to. That is a less - you know, that's not a scoring thing, that's a kind of feelings thing about how these candidates come across as human beings and as leaders.
BOLDUAN: That's a great point. And we talked to Frank Luntz kind of about his - all of the lessons he's learned from sitting and watching debates with voters. And it is that feeling in the end. No matter what policy you're talking about, it is that feeling that gets people. And that's a lot what we're hearing from voters.
John King's piece, one quote has stuck out to me, a Georgia voter telling him, I don't feel comfortable with Biden's age. I don't feel comfortable with Trump's mouth.
I asked the Biden campaign comms director, Michael Tyler -
HENDERSON: Yes.
BOLDUAN: About how Joe Biden is going to address the age question tonight. Let me play for you, Nia, what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL TYLER, COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR, BIDEN 2024 CAMPAIGN: I think, first and foremost, the president said it's fair for the American people to consider age. And they should watch him and watch his performance.
But what you're going to see tonight is not going to be a contrast of age, right. Yes, Joe Biden's 81 years old. Donald Trump is 78 years old. What the debate will be is a contrast in the age of their ideas. Everything that Joe Biden is going to talk about is how we take this country forward, how we continue to bring people together, to find solutions, to improve people's lives. Everything Donald Trump is going to be talking about is about how we take this country backwards.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BOLDUAN: If that is how -
HENDERSON: Yes.
BOLDUAN: Biden is answering the age question, I still wonder what it takes to set those age concerns aside for voters.
HENDERSON: You know, it's going to be hard. It is all about performance. They are riffing on a line Bill Clinton used against Bob Dole, right, which was very different, sort of the way they're trying to use it now. But I think it's - it's about as good as they can do.
People physically see Biden as much older than Donald Trump, even though they're only about four years apart. But there is something about the way he presents that just looks older. He's going in with a lot of low expectations. These are expectations that have been set low by Republicans over the last many years.
So, I do think he's got to show that he's smart. He's got to show that he's clever and he's - that he's quick on his feet because I - there are problems about his sort of physicality and how he sort of looks infirmed.
[08:50:07]
But I think he can - if he shows people that he's very, very smart, very, very well versed on the issues, and I think he is all those things, I think that will go a long way for people saying, well, maybe he is a little bit old, but he's completely with it and he's got the concerns of Americans at the center of his agenda.
BOLDUAN: If State of the Union Joe shows up, if you will, right?
HENDERSON: Exactly. That's exactly right. That's exactly right.
BOLDUAN: Yes, that's kind of one way I heard people describe it.
HENDERSON: Yes.
BOLDUAN: Susan, as I mentioned, you moderated the VP debate in 2020 between Mike Pence and Kamala Harris. Also, as I - as I was reminding myself, also featured quite a bit of interrupting on that debate stage, definitely coming from - from Mike Pence at the time.
What are you - lean on that and riff on tonight. What are you thinking?
PAGE: So, if it - Pence was more Trump-like than we expected before the debate. He was - for the vice presidential debate. He was harder to cut off. He did not abide by the rules that his campaign had abided by.
But you have an advantage tonight that we did not have, which is the decision about muting the mics. And I think that does make a big change in ways we may not really understand until we see the debate because it's flummoxing. It's flummoxing to cut off somebody who won't stop talking. Several moderators have struggled with that, with Trump. And I got to admit, I struggled with that with Pence.
BOLDUAN: I think every moderator struggles with it. It is - I mean that is just part - it's part - it's the hard part of the job. And you did a wonderful one at that.
It's great to see you, Susan. Thank you so much.
Nia, it is great to see you, as always.
HENDERSON: Good to see you.
BOLDUAN: Thank you, my love (ph).
A reminder, tonight, Joe Biden, Donald Trump - do you guys need reminded what time it is? It's going to be 9:00 pm. tonight. What are you doing? I don't know what you're doing.
SIDNER: We'll be watching.
BERMAN: Well, normally I'm in bed by 9:00, but not tonight.
SIDNER: They will all be watching.
BERMAN: This is a stimulant, I think.
SIDNER: Completely. I - we're hyped. You're hyped. You're more hyped than normal, and I like it.
BERMAN: I am totally chill.
BOLDUAN: John Berman, the hype man of 2024.
SIDNER: You're the hype man.
I do want to say, we've talked a lot about age Age, age, age, like you hear it all the time. Do you remember Ronald Reagan and Mondale and - and -
BERMAN: I'm old enough to remember that if that - I think that's what you're saying, yes.
SIDNER: It was the '80s. I remember.
BERMAN: Yes.
SIDNER: But he was like, I'm not going to exploit your youth and inexperience, and he killed that line because he was the older candidate and sort of put it to beds. So, I will be interesting to see what Joe Biden and Donald Trump do.
BOLDUAN: I think putting it to bed is going to be harder this time.
SIDNER: I agree. I agree. It's the - it's one of the big issues that people are talking about.
BERMAN: Now just 12 hours and nine - eight minutes away officially as of this second.
All right, we do have breaking developments in the search for a Chicago woman who went missing in the Bahamas. The new evidence investigators just found in the water.
And, really, there is no suppurative powerful enough to communicate how historic and extraordinary tonight's debate is. And I say this as s very chill person.
BOLDUAN: (INAUDIBLE).
BERMAN: This is absolutely, completely historic and hygienic. Very clean steps.
SIDNER: Very clean. BERMAN: On the stage.
BOLDUAN: You've got to dust off the steps when the friends are coming - coming to - coming over.
BERMAN: We are just hours away now from this moment. Our special coverage continues right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[08:57:35]
BERMAN: New this morning, Georgia's Republican governor, Brian Kemp, tell CNN he did not vote for Donald Trump in the state's Republican primary back in March. Kemp told our Kaitlan Collins the race was already over by then and that, quote, "at that point it did not really matter." He says he did vote, but he did not vote for anybody. He did add, he will support the Republican ticket in November.
This morning, a short-lived attempted coup in Bolivia is over. Dramatic moments show the Bolivian president confronting his former army chief, who apparently tried to overthrow him. The ex-army chief is now in custody and insisting that the president had ordered him to carry out a military operation to boost his popularity. Bolivian officials say that is untrue.
Police in the Bahamas say they have now found the cell phone belonging to a Chicago woman who has been missing for more than a week. Forty- one-year-old Taylor Casey was last seen on June 19th. She was on a yoga retreat. Authorities say her phone was found in the water. They have not said if they suspect foul play.
All right, happening now, two pandas are on their way to the San Diego Zoo from China. They are on loan after the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, suggested it as a show of friendship between the U.S. and China. According to Chinese state media, the pandas are being fed fresh bamboo, fruits, vegetables, and a special cornbread while on their chartered flight to the United States.
BOLDUAN: I mean -
BERMAN: So they are not flying economy plus. I was concerned that maybe they may not have leg room. They are on a chartered flight, Kate, to the United States.
BOLDUAN: And with fancy cornbread to boot.
OK, so that being - let's move on.
SIDNER: I love it.
BOLDUAN: Also this morning, people in Iran are getting ready to head to the polls to elect a new president. This election was ordered, you'll remember, after the death of President Raisi in that stunning helicopter crash last month. And it comes at an obviously critical time, the region incredibly volatile right now due to Israel's war against Hamas and Iran's continued backing of both Hamas and Hezbollah.
CNN's Frederik Pleitgen is in Tehran with the latest.
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there, Kate.
Wel, just hours from now, Iranians are going to be heading to the polls to elect a new president after, of course, Ebrahim Raisi was killed in that helicopter crash just a little over a month ago. And if we look at the field right now, there's four candidates who are left, three of them are considered to be conservative, and there's two of them who are considered to be among the front runners.
[09:00:02]
One of them is called Mohammad Qalibaf, who's actually the current speaker of Iranian parliament. The other is a gentleman named Saeed Jalili, who many in the west will still know.
