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Run The Numbers: Young Voters And The November Election; Where Harris And Trump Stand With Voters Under 35; Harris Campaign Plotting Path To Electoral Victory; Drugmaker: Twice-A-Year Shots Could Prevent HIV Infections; Black men Unite Around Harris' Presidential Campaign; Earth Just Broke The Record For Hottest Day Again. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired July 24, 2024 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:33:53]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. In my hands, I am holding a memo from now Harris campaign chair, Jen O'Malley Dillon, in which she outlines this morning, the advantages that she has says that Vice President Kamala Harris gives to the Democrats efforts now to maintain the White House.

And one of the things she says is that Harris has support -- unique support among young voters. That's what she says here. We've seen all these internet means over the last two days as well.

So, is it real? One man knows the answer, CNN's senior data reporter Harry Enten. In this case, they say you know the answer. What you've done is you've looked at the numbers since Sunday. What do they say?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes, you know, all this stuff about Brat Summer and all that jazz. So, I want to take a look at Trump versus Democratic margin. Just remind folks where we were at the end of the 2020 campaign. Joe Biden won voters under the age of 35 by 21 points.

What do we see with Kamala Harris? Well, she's still ahead, but the margin here is significantly less. That's what we saw with Joe Biden back in 2020. She's up by just nine points. You may make the argument that was better than Biden was doing before he got out. But compared to that Democratic baseline where Democrats have historically in presidential elections, at least this century, been carrying that young vote by 20 or more percentage points. She is way down from that.

[08:35:08]

So, if this is unique support among young voters, I would like to know what non unique support is.

BERMAN: Is it even worse than this? Is she doing better than Biden was?

ENTEN: She was doing slightly better. Maybe Biden was up by, you know, like six on average or five. This is maybe slightly better, but this is not game changing stuff, Mr. Berman.

BERMAN: All right, what have we seen in terms of motivation?

ENTEN: Yes, so, you know, the other thing is we talk about vote choice, right? But let's also talk about motivation, right?

Because it's not just who you would support. It's whether or not you'd come out to the polls. And this, I think, is rather interesting. Do Democrats say they're more motivated to turn out after Biden left the race? Well, we do see a significant portion of Democrats who say yes, 39 percent. The thing I was interested in was it disproportionately younger voters who said that they were more likely to turn out or more motivated to turn out. And what we see here is its 42 percent, not a big difference between 42 and 39 percent.

So, this idea, again, that the Vice President has unique potential to dig in and get young voters to turn out, John, it's just not there in the numbers, despite all the internet memes that are going around.

BERMAN: At least not yet. And one of the issues has been, Harry, this trend, which I think you were among the first to point out, young voters have changed or say they are changing in a relatively short period of time.

ENTEN: Yes. Oftentimes it's difficult to go against a grain. Kamala Harris may be fighting uphill, so I want to look at party identification again. Voters under the age of 35, go back to 2020, this is the Pew Research study. This is one of the best studies that we have. And look at that, 56 percent of young voters said that, in fact, they were Democrat, they identified as Democrat or lean Democratic. You look down at 2024. It's 49 percent.

Look at the Republican, John, from 39 to 49 percent. So, when we say that Harris is doing worse than Biden, it's not that she's uniquely bad. It's rather she's fighting uphill. She's trying to fight against a wave that is going against the Democrats among young voters. And Harris may be unique in some ways. Maybe she does slightly better than the generic Democrat, but not all that much (INAUDIBLE).

BERMAN: Yes, what this was, was shaping up to be a generational shift. The question is, was it just about Biden? Or was it about his administration we may find out soon.

ENTEN: We may find out soon, but at this particular point, it doesn't look like Harris is going to be able to fight against the grain too much, Mr. Berman (ph).

BERMAN: Harry, thank you very much.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BERMAN: Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us right now, CNN political commentators, S.E. Cupp and Errol Louis. Errol's the host of The Big Deal, Errol Louis on Spectrum News. So, the young voter conundrum, part 175, how do you get young voters to turn out? What do you think? One, do you think Harry Enten is right, Errol? Just kidding Harry, he's standing right there staring at me.

And also, I wonder how focused either campaign should be or is going to be on turning out young voters when they've got to focus on turning out lots of other aspects of their -- of their coalition (INAUDIBLE).

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, look, it's a big puzzle. Everybody's got to try and do everything, right? But this is -- this has been -- and Harry's always right, by the way.

But there's this thing called an age inversion that pollsters have picked up and have been talking about. Which is that Democrats normally do much better with young people, and that has just not been true. It is one of the things that set off the panic that led to a lot of the discussion about why Biden needed to step down. He was doing better with older voters. Unusual for Democrats, but they are, in fact, the most reliable voters.

And so, they're going to have to see if this is a realignment. Is this a reversion to what normally happens, or is there something else going on? And that something else, again, goes back to the pressure, the reports that were coming from the field, the strategists that I've talked to keep saying something huge is happening and we have to do something about it. Let's get Biden out of there.

OK, that's fine. But if it's a true realignment, if it's a true change election, it really doesn't matter whose name is at the top of the ticket.

BOLDUAN: That's right.

LOUIS: If Republicans are going to win this year in a big landslide because the whole country is changing, and that's going to happen no matter who the candidate is.

BOLDUAN: And also, S.E., but then something else we've been talking about is kind of the -- the reset. I'm sure the Trump campaign would say, we're not changing the playbook at all because they say that these are the same policies of Joe Biden that Kamala Harris is pushing. But one thing we know from their campaign memo is that they have said to lawmakers, focus in, laser focus in on the border and lay -- and, and as they try to label her and want to label her a border czar, which is a misnomer.

Does this become, do you think the border issue a bigger or smaller issue now with Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket?

S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It's still a big issue.

BOLDUAN: Yes.

CUPP: And they are right to focus on that policy. I -- I would add the economy as well. These were two huge drivers. Before Biden got out, they are still going to be huge drivers and they can attach her to the border.

She was appointed to sort of solve this crisis or at least oversee it. And there are plenty of areas and avenues to go after her on policy. What they're doing because they're scrambling, and they might not admit it, but they are panicked for sure.

Now they're sort of fighting again. This once unified party that was very excited and on the same page is now divided over how to attack her.

[08:40:08]

So, you've got Republicans like Tim Burchett talking about her being a DEI hire. You've got other Republicans like Mike Johnson, now Speaker, saying, please don't do this.

BOLDUAN: Indirectly.

CUPP: This is bad for us.

BOLDUAN: Like, please (INAUDIBLE).

CUPP: This is bad for us. Yes. So, the unity is gone. Right. It's -- it's now a new day and the party, it's -- it's funny. It's like both campaigns are starting from scratch now. So, they're -- they're all kind of scrambling.

BOLDUAN: Let's see. How do you run a president -- presidential campaign from scratch in six months?

CUPP: Yes.

BOLDUAN: We're about to find out. Talk about new campaign strategy, new campaign memo from, from now Kamala Harris campaign. The memo saying that they're not only -- from Jen O'Malley Dillon. They're not only going to be targeting the blue wall. They're now also kind of opening back up and going on offense on the Sunbelt States, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina.

Bullish to bullish?

LOUIS: No, no, no. Strategically important and necessary. I mean, the biggest problem again, that why the strategists were panicking over a Biden candidacy was that they were going to have to sort of really try and win all of the blue wall. And that's about all that they could do. They were going to give up on Georgia. The numbers look terrible in Nevada. The numbers look weak in Arizona.

Just to be able to say, OK, we've got some possibilities here. You know, a lot of this is about kind of making the other side spend money.

BOLDUAN: Yes, (INAUDIBLE).

LOUIS: Tying them down in North Carolina.

CUPP: Right.

BOLDUAN: Things you say in memos released to the press can also have another intent.

CUPP: Yes.

LOUIS: Exactly right. So, there's a lot of that, and of course she's credible in a lot of these areas. The other thing, by the way, is that she, in redefining this campaign in the shape of it for Democrats, is going to talk more about the economy. Because when people say, inflation, inflation, and that's the only story, the stock market hit record highs 36 times this year, including during the RNC, and the Democrats, once they start talking about that, you're going to see in certain areas, the economy is red hot. The economy is doing just fine, and that's going to get them some votes.

BOLDUAN: A -- a -- a -- a reimagined way of talking about the economy and getting people to -- to how voters feel about the economy, that is something the campaign definitely needs.

Let's talk about defining. Howard Dean, who ran for president in 2004, saw his chances evaporate after the scream speech, which he himself calls it the scream speech. He was just on with John and was talking about kind of the lessons that apply today from again, what he calls the scream speech from back then.

Let me play this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN, (D) FMR PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Really, I like in my situation to Biden's, I couldn't change the narrative after that. I couldn't change the narrative and Joe couldn't -- shouldn't change the narrative about his age and his dementia and all this other stuff.

And you just, you know, it's not fair, but that's politics. And I think Kamala is the antidote to all of that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: So, antidote on the -- on the age issue, Kamala Harris. But also, it had me starting to think about just, the whole mantra of you need to define yourself before -- before anyone else does, especially your competitor.

Do you think Kamala Harris has work to do there?

CUPP: Yes. Listen, she's got big name ID, we know who she is, but no one's ever voted for her. And now she is tied to an agenda that, in many ways, they're going to want to sort of leave behind. That's why she's there, because she's not Joe Biden. And because she can be a bridge to a future Democratic Party.

So, she's in a tricky spot. She's going to defend the Biden agenda. He's the sitting president. She's still the vice president, but she also has to say, but I'm different. I'm not Joe Biden. She's got to address some of his policy holes. The policy areas that were dragging him down. Can she be a new voice on Gaza, for example. Can she win --

BOLDUAN: Howard Dean -- Howard Dean pointed to that too. He thinks that's -- that's a place she can be different too.

CUPP: It's been (INAUDIBLE) for Democrats, especially among young people. Maybe she speaks differently about that. I don't know, her people are putting out that she is lockstep with Joe Biden on Israel. It's going to be weird, for lack of a better word. Because she's going to need to say, here's how I'm different, but here's how I'm going to build on the legacy that Joe Biden has already created.

She can't be totally different. She's still defending the guy she works for, but she's got to be a little different or else what's the point of her. Right?

BOLDUAN: A little bit a lot of different. It's a whole new day.

CUPP: Yes.

LOUIS: I mean, look at something as ephemeral as a screen speech or a really bad debate. The -- the good thing for Kamala Harris from her point of view is that, we've only got, like, what, a 100 days, 102 days until this thing is over?

CUPP: What could go wrong, Errol?

LOUIS: Well, no, I mean, you know, seriously, what could go right?

CUPP: Yes.

LOUIS: Which is that she's got this wave of enthusiasm.

CUPP: Yes.

LOUIS: It's going to perhaps start to change the numbers with some of the young people, and there's no way to defend that. If you had, you know, Chris Rock and Hulk Hogan, and she's getting all of Hollywood right now, and she's got decades worth of connections with them, it's going to play out very differently.

And not -- and not much chance to sort of do anything about it. That's why I think you're seeing some of the panic on the Republican side.

BOLDUAN: Hulk Hogan and Kid Rock. Just want to make sure we know exactly what we're talking about.

CUPP: Yes, not Chris Rock. Kid Rock.

LOUIS: Oh my God, yes.

CUPP: Big difference. I heard Chris Rock (INAUDIBLE) --

BOLDUAN: I did. And say that out loud because I know, I mean, believe me, when I say things that --

[08:45:03] CUPP: Kid Rock. Right.

BOLDUAN: Things I'm thinking and things that come out of my mouth are two completely different scenarios all the time.

CUPP: We got you.

BOLDUAN: Good to see you guys. (INAUDIBLE).

Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Errol, Chris Rock is writing you a stern e- mail right now.

BOLDUAN: It's called the nasty gram.

SIDNER: All right. Stunning findings from an HIV drug trial. Drugmaker, Gilead says it's twice a year shots could potentially It's a drug that can prevent new infections.

Here's more with CNN health reporter Jacqueline Howard. Tell us about this drug. This is a big deal.

JACQUELINE HOWARD, CNN HEALTH REPORTER: It is a big deal, Sara. This drug, it's called Lenacapavir. And in a Phase 3 trial, it was found to have 100 percent efficacy in preventing new HIV infections.

Now, this was a trial conducted in South Africa and Uganda. It included more than 5,000 women and adolescent girls. And in the trial, some of the study participants were given a daily prep pill. This is a pill that's already available. You take it once daily, and it helps prevent HIV infections. The other participants were given Lenacapavir. This was a shot given twice a year, and over time, the researchers looked at both groups to see how many of the participants acquired HIV infections over time.

In the Lenacapivir group, Sara, zero participants acquired HIV infections. In the daily prep pill group, researchers saw about 55 infections over time. But because zero occurred in Lenacapivir, that's what's really getting a lot of attention. The researchers are conducting other trials right now looking at Lenacapivir. This trial was among again, just women and adolescent girls. The researchers are now studying this and men and they're going to see how Lenacapavir performs in these other trials.

But having this 100 percent efficacy, researchers say this could be a potential option for people in the future. People already taking prep potentially could have the option of just a twice-yearly injection. Sara.

SIDNER: Wow. All right, Jacqueline Howard. Thank you so much for that.

John.

BERMAN: All right, one Republican attack against Vice President Harris is that she was, now this is their words, quote, a DEI hire. New reporting this morning on how voters are responding to that.

And hundreds of people dead due to record breaking heat and the planet just recorded the hottest day ever in history.

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[08:51:45]

SIDNER: -- that putting Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket has energized Democratic voters, especially voters of color. Hours after she announced her presidential campaign, 44,000 Black women joined a Zoom call and now Black men rallying behind her bid for the White House.

Earlier this week, a virtual win with Black men conference event helped raise more than 1.3 million for her campaign.

Joining me now is Michael Blake, one of the hosts of the Win With Black Men Conference.

The first thing I want to ask you is what did you hear on that call that stuck with you, that stood out to you?

MICHAEL BLAKE, FMR OBAMA WHITE HOUSE AIDE: Incredible pride, incredible energy that brothers did not want to wait to be engaged, that we weren't going to allow someone to paint a narrative about the Vice President it wasn't true and which we're already starting here. They're trying to say that she was negative when it came to criminal justice, it's not true, that she isn't still with brothers, it's not true. And that brothers wanted to be able to mobilize immediately.

And so, our final numbers there 53,862 who joined that call over that span and four hours, $1.4 million raised for the campaign, as well as for Black men organizations, such as win with Black men, collective (INAUDIBLE) democracy project. Brothers are not going to wait right now because we understand what's at stake for us.

SIDNER: And we should be clear when he says brothers, humans, Black men --

BLAKE: I mean --

SIDNER: -- just in case --

BLAKE: -- I mean, no question about that. Full stop. Right? We understand the assignment out here.

SIDNER: Just in case anyone is confused about it's not her actual brother.

Anyway, all right, I want to -- I want to get to a new poll came out sort of comparing black voters and seeing who they would vote for whether it be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris now that she is going to ascend, it looks like to the top of the ticket. And the numbers that came out were basically 70 something percent -- 77 percent or there it is, 76 percent would go with Kamala Harris, 21 percent with Donald Trump. Those are historic highs for a Republican, never mind Donald Trump, who I think got, you know, a lot, a heck of a lot less--

BLAKE: Yes.

SIDNER: -- than that. How do you, what does she need to do in your mind to try and get potentially some of those voters back? And we know that Black men are the numbers that are growing for Donald Trump?

BLAKE: Absolutely. So, when we think about it, typically Republicans get about 12 percent of the Black men voting black vote collectively. So, we got to shift that 9 percent. And I think it's pretty good to assume and presume that with a Black woman at the top of the ticket, the same way we have a Barack Obama in '08, those numbers will shift dramatically.

You know, I was in Iowa in 2008 when people wondered, well, can white folk and others vote for him? Well, yes, but we knew we were going to win because black were going to show up. I think it's pretty safe to presume that Kamala Harris and the track record that she has and, you know, me being an alpha, her being an AK, I think we're going to have a divine nine mobilization that's going to happen in that regard. But there's an excitement. We can't ignore that.

The reality is when you had close to 100,000 black folk in a 48 hour span, mobilizing on their own, then why do we think people will not show up. The -- the data that always stays with me when I look at from Brilliant Corners and Cornell Belcher, it's not a question on will we show up. It's just making sure that we don't go vote third party. And Donald Trump's rhetoric is not going to work for us when it becomes a conversation around justice around jobs around housing, all of those are spaces. The Vice President is going to mobilize black folk in a much better way than Donald Trump ever could.

[08:55:08]

SIDNER: Yes, you talk about that sort of those folks that might go out and vote third party and there were between 76 and 21. There's still some space there for people to vote third party.

And I just want to again clarified the Divine Nine. These are historically black.

BLAKE: Historically black. You know --

SIDNER: Sorority (ph) (INAUDIBLE) --

BLAKE: -- our black fraternity, 55 fraternities, four sororities. And we're excited about the mobilization that's happening. And - and recognizing that there is an effort happening that people did not realize.

And so, when we say, you know, not like us and playing off Kendrick Lamar That's what we're trying to communicate that there are people that are ready to get mobilized that are going to make sure that she becomes the next president.

SIDNER: I was saying that there is a lot of, you know, the donations that have come in there have been thousands of them that are exactly $19.8, 1908 is when Alpha Kapp Alpha, the sorority that she is in a historically black sorority was formed.

And so, you're seeing this kind of, of thing, and I think the alphas were 1906, so we'll --

BLAKE: Of course.

SIDNER: -- we'll be looking at just how many people kind of mobilize, globalize this for her there around the world.

I -- I do want to ask you about her history as a prosecutor, because this has become a point of contention. She, you know, this country has a long history of imprisoning Black men in particular, disproportionately. She was a prosecutor. She did put folks in jail.

How do Black men look at this and grapple with this issue?

BLAKE: Yes. Well, she did her job as a district attorney and making sure that justice occurred. And when we think about what did she do? What they don't want to tell is the story is what does she work on in terms of addressing recidivism, but they don't want to talk about is how there was actually a pathway for those that wanted to get jobs afterwards. What they don't want to talk about is that she actually ensured that they weren't pursuing the death penalty when others try to do so.

So, when we talk about justice, I would rather have Vice President Harris, who has clearly had a record of justice. That's not for the people rather than the alternative of a man who had 34 times where people demonstrated that he was breaking the law. And so, the comparison is that they're afraid. Deep in -- digging deeper than that we talk about a black job. A black job was a black prosecutor, a black AG, a black United States senator, a black vice president, and she will become a black president. He just hopes to have a job. He's afraid that he's running against Black woman.

And so, the reality is that we see that they only have distractions similarly, the disastrous campaign has happened for JD Vance. People need to understand they're saying these things because they have someone who is anti-DEI, they have a -- a Project 2025. All of these things are trying to make sure to deflect.

And so, for all the Black men that want to hear the truth mobilize with us, One With Black Men, our next call is Sunday, 7:00 p.m. Eastern. Go one with blackmen.org. Follow our different efforts because we're focused on this. And -- and -- and the reality is we can't be divided.

My mom, a two-time breast cancer survivor. God bless you for what you have gone through as well. It is important for us to say people are saying these things because they want to divide brothers from the sisters. That's what they're talking about. Maybe Donald Trump, if he had a record that actually was good rather than his own criminal record, he wouldn't have anything else to talk about. SIDNER: Thank you so much for coming on and explaining all that to me. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the future. Appreciate it.

BLAKE: Thanks, Sara.

SIDNER: John.

BERMAN: All right. The wrong kind of record. The hottest day on Earth ever. The global average temperature Monday was 62.87 degrees. Now remember that includes like the North and South Pole and the entire Southern Hemisphere where it's winter right now. It breaks the previous record held for a whopping one day. In the Phoenix area, the heat is suspected as the cause of nearly 400 deaths this year.

CNN chief climate correspondent Bill Weir is there. Bill?

BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, John, they set the worst kind of record here in Maricopa County last year, 645 heat related deaths. This year is on pace to break that with these new numbers out. As you mentioned, 27 confirmed nearly 400 under investigation. It's interesting that about half of those involved drugs, those victims, about 40 percent of folks who are unhoused.

So, the addiction crisis, the home housing crisis that exists on the best of days around here turns deadly when the temperature gets up. When it got up around 118 degrees for a week there, you saw the biggest jump in fatalities. This is a cooling center behind me the Burton Barr Library the first one of the first 24-hour cooling centers, they're trying to also get more help for the folks who come in off the street with addiction problems beyond just cooling them off in the moment.

I also talked to firefighters, EMTs, John. Now, it is standard in Phoenix for every truck, every ambulance to carry body bags and body bags and bags full of ice in order to cool people down as fast as possible. That used to just happen at the hospital. Street teams are giving IVs on the streets now trying to mitigate this as well. Adaptation happening in real time as last June was the hottest ever here in Phoenix, five and a half degrees above normal. July on pace to be six degrees above normal.

[09:00:00]

BERMAN: And very quickly, Bill, these hottest days on record around the world. What's the significance there?

WEIR: Well, there's a trillion and a half tons of extra carbon dioxide pollution, in -- in the sky and the more that it's put there if you're burning a fossil fuel, the hotter we get here on Earth. Just another record that fell, they've been following year after year, it will continue to unless that is fixed.

BERMAN: All right. Bill Weir for us in Phoenix, breaking all the wrong kind of record. Thanks so much for your report this morning.

Brand new hour of "CNN News Central," starts now.