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Harris Gaining in Polls Against Trump; Israel Bracing For Iranian Attack. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired August 12, 2024 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[13:00:17]

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: One week until the Democratic National Convention, and it's really a tale of two campaigns, new numbers show one candidate gaining ground in several battleground states, while the other seems to be obsessing over a different number, crowd size.

Plus: The U.S. sends a guided missile sub to the Middle East, as Israel braces for what sources believe will be a large-scale attack by Iran. Ahead, what more we're learning about a potential timeline.

JESSICA DEAN, CNN HOST: And battling over bronze, U.S. Gymnastics now appealing a decision to strip Jordan Chiles of her medal, the new piece of evidence they think proves their case.

We're following these major developing stories and many more all coming in right here to CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

KEILAR: We start with the race for the White House, just 85 days...

DEAN: I know.

KEILAR: ... can you believe it, until Election Day, as Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump take very different paths to win over voters.

Tonight, Trump will return to X, formerly Twitter, for a live conversation with the social media platform's owner, Elon Musk. Musk promises no subject will be off-limits. We will see, of course, when it happens.

In the meantime, Trump is using a familiar playbook. He has been wading into bogus conspiracy theories, falsely posting on TRUTH Social that a photo of a recent Harris campaign event showing a sizable crowd was created with A.I.

DEAN: All of this as new polling shows Harris closing the gap in some critical battleground states, part of the strategy to restore Democrats so-called blue wall, the vice president seizing on that polling surge and preparing to roll out her economic agenda just a few days before the start of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

CNN's Kristen Holmes, Alayna Treene, and Eva McKend are all here to break it down for us.

And, Kristen, let's start first with you and the former president returning to X. We haven't seen him post on that in a very long time.

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: No. And he actually just posted two minutes ago, right before this whole conversation with Elon Musk that's happening tonight.

He posted two videos out here. Now, this is kind of a long time coming. If you talk to people who are outside of the campaign, his allies have been talking about him getting back on Twitter for some time. They have wanted him to get out there to get exposure to a wider audience.

But, that being said, the campaign has had some hesitation because of the fact that he really is allowed to exist in kind of a vacuum on TRUTH Socials, saying these conspiracy theories, as you noted, and not getting a lot of coverage around it.

So, as we noted, over the weekend, Donald Trump posted about this conspiracy theory that we had already seen circulating on conservative media about the crowd sizes. He talked about the fact that he said that Kamala Harris was manufacturing the whole thing, she was cheating, if she would cheat on one thing, she would cheat at an election.

This is what some of his allies are now saying about that post.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. KEVIN MCCARTHY (R-CA): You have got to make this race not on personalities.

Stop questioning the size of her crowds and start questioning her position when it comes to what did she do as attorney general on crime. Question what did she do when she was supposed to take care of the border as a czar. Question that they brought inflation.

And she was the tie-breaking vote when it came to inflation, when it came to IRS agents.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, obviously, it's not just Kevin McCarthy. It is also allies hoping that he will focus on the actual campaign and the issues, not on these conspiracy theories about her crowd sizes.

Talking about Elon Musk, the campaign wants him doing these kind of things. They think that it's going to help him reach out to an audience that is bigger than a cable news audience, that is bigger than the people who are tuning into a rally, outside of that, people who get their news from social media, people who follow Elon Musk.

So, that's part of the reason he is doing this today.

KEILAR: Yes, it'll be interesting to see the questions that are asked, right, if really anything is off-limits or not.

Also, over the weekend -- I think this is really significant -- Trump's campaign says that it was hacked by Iranian operatives. Have they said anything else about this?

HOLMES: No, and the details here are very murky.

So, essentially, what happened is, Politico reported that it had these internal documents and that they had said that the person who had them admitted that they'd got them potentially in an illegal way. The campaign responded saying they were hacked and they blamed Iran.

Now, here's where it gets a little bit murky. Microsoft did put out a statement earlier in the week saying that there had been an attempted hack on an unnamed presidential campaign. That was essentially it. That is separate potentially from this, because that said it was an attempt -- an attempted hack, not an actual conclusive hack.

Now you are hearing that these documents came out and that's what the campaign is saying. There's a lot of confusion because the FBI has not said what is going on. It is not clear from the campaign. Have they reached out to law enforcement?

[13:05:05]

So, obviously, we know one thing. Iran does want to have an influence in the 2024 election. We know that, from Microsoft, they were trying to get access to various political campaigns. Whether or not these documents were part of that -- they were vetting documents for J.D. Vance, among other things -- we're still kind of unclear, because we just don't have enough details.

DEAN: And so, while the former president, he was campaigning and also fund-raising, Alayna, J.D. Vance, his running mate, was all over TV yesterday, doing a bunch of interviews, really trying to blanket the airwaves.

He's really pushing back on this narrative that Republicans are weird, among other things. What else did he have to say?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: He is. And it's also interesting, because it's not just TV. He's been doing a lot of it. He was the one they deployed last week. Trump wasn't on the trail last week while Harris and Walz were hitting all the battlegrounds.

It was J.D. Vance who was going to Michigan, to Wisconsin, to Pennsylvania to kind of paint that contrast with them. And it's exactly what I have been hearing from Donald Trump's team, but as well as Vance's team, that his goal on the campaign right now is to be the disciplined messenger that Donald Trump cannot always be.

We know -- I saw this in Friday when I was in Montana with Donald Trump. He goes off-script. He riffs. He -- they want him to focus on policy, but sometimes his attacks go more personal and they're more nasty, whereas J.D. Vance, they want him to be the one who is really focusing on those key issues that we always talk about that the Trump campaign wants them to prioritize, which is immigration, crime, and the economy.

Now, he did do several interviews yesterday, including with our own Dana Bash, and she asked him directly about, what do you make of this weird label that Democrats are giving you? I want you to take a listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. J.D. VANCE (R-OH), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: So, I think that what it is, is two people, Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, who aren't comfortable in their own skin because they aren't comfortable with their policy positions for the American people.

And so they're name-calling, instead of actually telling the American people how they're going to make their lives better. I think that's weird, Dana. But, look, they can call me whatever they want to.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

TREENE: OK, so it is a little hypocritical, I think for him to say Democrats are engaging in all of this name-calling, when you go on TRUTH Social and see what Donald Trump writes about Democrats all the time.

J.D. Vance himself has been calling her a chameleon. I think this is -- this was the more measured response that they want him to be having and trying to push it back. You could tell very clearly throughout the interviews that he did yesterday that he was trying to be more disciplined, to be the one to kind of have a tighter leash on what they were saying.

And I think -- I talked to Donald Trump's team. I talked to Vance's team this morning. They were saying they were very happy with how he did. They want him to be doing more of this. You will expect him to do even press conferences, more interviews, more long-form podcasts.

They want him to be that messenger and I think that's what that goal -- the goal was yesterday for him.

KEILAR: And then, Eva, you had Vice President Harris, who is continuing her swing state push on the campaign trail. She made stops in Arizona and Nevada. And California, it isn't a swing state. It's more of like a ka-ching state, I guess you could say.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

KEILAR: Yes. What's happening next here?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, this week, she's going to outline her economic policy vision, and that perhaps makes sense to start with the economy. We know that it is a top concern for so many voters.

I don't know how much it will quiet the consternation from Republicans that she's not focusing enough on policy. Oddly enough, one of her first policy visions that she announced on Saturday in Nevada before the culinary union, which endorsed her, a major player in that state, was to eliminate tips -- eliminate taxes on tips for hospitality workers.

And, of course, the former president has been talking about that for weeks, so that's getting a lot of attention. But she's also been talking about other economic policies as well that we are going to hear her expand on this week, like tackling high prices, taking on price gouging and banning hidden fees and surprise late charges, as well as pledging to take on corporate landlords and cap unfair rent increases.

So we will get more details in this, but the economy going to be a big focus for her this week.

KEILAR: Yes, that's really interesting. Housing is such a big cost for people, so she's really trying to speak to them where they are. We will see if they hear it.

Eva, thank you so much. Kristen, Alayna, thank you guys so much.

Let's discuss more now with Larry Sabato. He is the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

All right, Larry, I do want to ask you. When you're looking at this new poll, this new "New York Times" poll, showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Trump within the margin of error, I do want to note, among likely voters in three key battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, what are you thinking?

LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS: That poll, in particular, has been criticized for most of this year as being too pro-Trump, too pro-Republican, and it did in fact show numbers that were more Republican than some other good polls.

[13:10:03]

Well, how things have changed. Now, you could always say, well, maybe it was the way it was conducted or the time it was conducted. All that's true.

But I learned something many years ago. A rising tide lifts all boats. That usually is a phrase applied to economics, that, if the economy is doing better, it's going to help just about everybody to do better. But it also applies to polling.

When you see lots of independent polls that are well done, that are nonpartisan, and they're all moving in the same direction, not just nationally, but in the individual swing states, you know you're watching a trend. It's a real trend.

And that's precisely what we have seen with Harris and the enthusiasm that she's generated, and Walz as well, pushing up, doing better against Trump in those seven swing states, more or less, seven swing states, as well as nationally. So this is real.

The question that matters is, will it last? Now, it's got a good chance to last through the Democratic Convention if the protests don't wipe it out. But then, once you get to Labor Day, other things come into play, including the debate.

KEILAR: Yes, and I want to look at Michigan specifically, because you can maybe explain to us what we're seeing here. What does it tell you, when it's registered voters 48 to 45 with Trump ahead, again, within the margin of error, but then when you look at who is most likely among those voters to actually cast a ballot, it then flips 50 to 46 with Harris ahead, still of course, within the margin of error?

What does that indicate to you?

SABATO: It indicates that everybody should be caught, because registered voters tend to become likely voters to a greater degree as Election Day approaches.

Now, they could change for all kinds of different reasons, where they could be turned on or turned off, which I think is what really happens in this very polarized era, by the results of the debate, as we saw on June 27 on CNN.

So you have got to be cautious, but registered voters, at least some of them, turn into likely voters, the ones who've been excluded in the likely voter count, as we approach Election Day. So you look at both categories.

I'm at the point where I look a little bit more at likely voters than I do registered voters, since we are, as you keep stressing correctly, only 85 days, thank God, away from the Election Day.

(LAUGHTER)

SABATO: And so that tells you that, as we move along, you want to spend more time looking at likely. But you never ignore registered, because people can shock you.

They can get turned on at the last minute by something that happens or something that makes them mad, and they will turn up unexpectedly.

KEILAR: Yes, very good point, Larry.

And then in your Crystal Ball map, you have those three blue wall states as toss-ups. What would it take to move one of them, any of them to a leaning one way or the other?

SABATO: A consistent trend, not just in polling, but also among the people who know their state's politics.

People still matter. Expert opinion still matters. It's not just polling, which can go wrong in a lot of ways that we have all discovered even before 2016, but especially in 2016 and afterwards. So I want to see a convergence of expert opinion and a series of well- done -- well-done, nonpartisan polls. You really have to look askance at the ones that are done by partisan

entities, even if they claim to be independent. A lot of people in this business know who they are.

KEILAR: Yes, all great points.

Larry Sabato, great to speak with you, 85 days, as you said. Thank God.

(LAUGHTER)

KEILAR: We have many days to speak ahead, though. Larry, thank you.

Still ahead: Former President Trump now wants the Justice Department to pay up because of their Mar-a-Lago search. We're going to break down the claims ahead.

DEAN: Plus: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin increasing security for Israel, ordering a guided missile submarine to the region -- what this all signals, as Israel braces for a large-scale attack from Iran.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:19:00]

KEILAR: Today, the U.S. is taking major steps to bolster its security presence in the Middle East ahead of an anticipated Iranian attack on Israel.

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordering the USS Georgia to the region. It's a nuclear-powered submarine that is armed with cruise missiles. The Pentagon is also speeding up the arrival of a carrier strike group. The Israeli defense minister warning Secretary Austin during a call yesterday that Iranian military preparation -- preparations suggest that Iran is getting ready for a large-scale attack.

This follows, of course, last month's killings of a top Hezbollah leader in Lebanon and a top Hamas leader in Tehran.

Let's go now to CNN's Oren Liebermann, who is live for us at the Pentagon.

Oren, how unusual is it for the U.S. to announce the whereabouts of the nuclear-powered sub and what's the reasoning behind this?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Incredibly unusual.

The U.S. fleet of submarines normally operates in near-complete secrecy. So, when there's a public statement made about the deployment of one or its movements, it is a very public and intentional statement, in this case, the U.S. trying to send a very clear message of deterrence to not only Iran, but also its proxies in announcing that the USS Georgia, which was operating in the Mediterranean Sea, will now move towards U.S. Central Command, so towards the Middle East.

[13:20:18]

We saw the similar movement of what is a guided missile submarine at the beginning of the war, way back in November. And that, too, was a statement. So seeing it once again tells you how seriously the U.S. views the situation.

In terms of why announce this publicly, Major General Pat Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, said just a short time ago -- and I will read this quote to you. He said: "Look, are we trying to send a message? Absolutely, we're trying to send a message, which is we're looking to de-escalate the situation, that we're looking to have capabilities in the region to protect our forces, while also support the defense of Israel."

And it's not just this guided missile submarine that's heading to the region. The USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, which includes the carrier itself, as well as several destroyers, has been ordered to speed up. It's coming over from the Pacific Ocean, so that will still take several days.

But the U.S. has considerable forces already in and around the region, an amphibious ready group in the Mediterranean Sea. Another carrier strike group with USS Theodore Roosevelt is already in the waters of Central Command, so the waters of the Middle East. So there are already considerable forces there, including more squadrons of fighter jets as well, advanced F-22s, F-35s, stealth fighters also making their way to the region.

So you see this buildup of forces, and that's because of the concern over what Iran might do. A short time ago, the White House said it shares Israel's concern about the possibility of a large-scale attack coming not only from Iran, but also from its proxies. So that would be Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, militias in Iraq and Syria.

The question, of course, what does Iran choose to do and how big do they want to go?

KEILAR: All right, Oren Liebermann, live for us at the Pentagon, thank you for that report.

And let's go now to CNN's Jeremy Diamond, who is in Haifa, Israel.

Jeremy, as Israel is preparing for a possible Iranian attack, you have Israeli media reporting that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now verbally attacking the country's defense minister. Tell us what's going on.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Brianna, this appears to have begun when the Israeli defense minister was attending a Foreign Affairs Committee hearing behind closed doors in Israel's Parliament and appears to have tacitly criticized the Israeli prime minister for not authorizing a preemptive strike against Hezbollah that was being considered back in October, also calling the Israeli prime minister's slogan of total victory, absolute victory -- quote -- "nonsense." The Israeli prime minister choosing to fire back in a statement, saying that Gallant, the defense minister, is adopting a -- quote -- "anti-Israel narrative," saying that he should be attacking Sinwar instead as it relates to pushing for a hostage deal.

And so, obviously, the timing of this is not ideal for the Israeli government. You have the Israeli prime minister and the defense minister publicly spatting at a time when we are hearing that an Iranian attack, an attack by Iran or its proxies could be effectively imminent now.

And so it certainly doesn't show a united front. But the Israeli government, the Israeli military are certainly on heightened alert for a potential Iranian attack. We have been hearing increasingly about that, those readiness levels, not only preparing defensive scenarios, but also rapidly being able to switch into offensive mode if a counterstrike becomes necessary.

And late last week, we were having these discussions about a potential diplomatic off-ramp, with the U.S., Egypt and Qatar pushing for a new round of cease-fire negotiations, Iran indicating that perhaps it was willing to take that diplomatic off-ramp instead of carrying out this retaliatory strike against Israel.

But now it appears that both the U.S. and Israel's intelligence assessments indicate that an Iranian strike, potentially one in coordination with Hezbollah, could be coming in a matter of hours or a matter of days.

And, obviously, that is putting those cease-fire negotiations very, very much at risk. And it appears that that off-ramp is now very far away, if not off the table altogether -- Brianna.

KEILAR: All right, Jeremy Diamond, thank you for that report from Haifa -- Jessica.

DEAN: Let's talk more about this with retired U.S. Army Colonel Peter Mansoor.

Colonel, great to have you here. Thanks for making time.

When deciding how and when to retaliate, as Jeremy was just laying out, we are waiting to see what Iran will actually do. What factors do you think Iran is taking into consideration at this point?

COL. PETER MANSOOR (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Well, if you recall, back in April when they retaliated for the killing of their operatives in Damascus, it was 12 days after that event that the missile strike occurred.

So this is not unusual that they're taking their time to plan the strike. They are walking a fine line between wanting to damage Israel and make it clear that killing guests on their soil is not welcome and sparking a wider war in the region, which they absolutely don't want.

[13:25:10] So I think they're taking their time, they're preparing their strike, and they want the strike to be more successful than the one in April was, which most of those missiles and cruise missiles and drones were shot down.

DEAN: And, in the meantime, the Biden administration and the Pentagon mobilizing military assets into that region.

What really is striking and notable is that Defense Secretary Austin himself talked about this guided missile submarine that is going to be in the area, sharing that information publicly. In the last hour, a Pentagon spokesperson said announcing that sub's deployment is absolutely sending a message to Iran.

Do you think it will have its intended effect? And what do you make of that strategy?

MANSOOR: Well, we will see.

It's certainly a message to Iran that, if you go too far, if the strike hits Israeli population centers, for instance, and creates mass casualties, that we can fire back and destroy your nuclear program, for instance, that this would not go unchallenged.

So it's meant to put doubt in the minds of Iranian leaders and to make sure that their strike doesn't cross the red lines that Israel has set out for massive retaliation.

DEAN: And it truly remains to be seen, because we're going to have to see how this plays out, of course, but do you think that the U.S. by doing these sorts of things can effectively deter Iran, can make a difference in how they're assessing the situation before they strike?

MANSOOR: Well, it's proven effective in the past. The Iranian leaders are not stupid. They're very calculated in what they do.

And they have got a very good strategy for the way they have approached this conflict in Gaza to energize the Axis of Resistance without energizing an attack on their homeland. And I think that they will continue with that strategy in the days and weeks ahead.

And so I suspect that there will be a retaliatory strike, probably in conjunction with a strike by Hezbollah with its rockets, but one that is tempered and meant not to cause a wider war in the region.

DEAN: And back in April, Iran really did telegraph its plans to attack Israel. They were able and the U.S. were able to get allies together to put together this coalition that was successfully able to defend against that attack.

We are seeing, of course, signals again that it is imminent, as Jeremy was saying, and we have new reporting that the U.S. shares Israel's concerns that there could be attack -- an attack in the coming days.

So do you think that they will have a good grasp on the timing of this, or do you think this could potentially come as more of a surprise?

MANSOOR: I think there's no way it will come as a surprise. Everyone is expecting an attack. The defense systems are on high alert.

The question is, will Iran and Hezbollah combined launch more rockets and missiles than the Iron Dome system and U.S. defenses in the Mediterranean Sea can handle? Back in April, the two systems shot down in excess of 300 targets, and the result was no damage on Israel.

And, as a result, the tensions in the region dissipated. But if now that number of missiles and rockets shot at Israel goes up to over 1,000, can the defenses take care of that number of targets? And it remains to be seen.

DEAN: That is the big question.

All right, Colonel Peter Mansoor, thank you so much for being here with us.

MANSOOR: My pleasure.

DEAN: It's been more than two years since the deadly shooting in Uvalde, Texas, and now the city is releasing new information about what happened that day -- ahead, what we're learning from 911 calls and text messages between officers in the days after that tragic shooting.

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