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Harris Gains in Polls; Trump Tries to Slow Harris' Momentum; Key Inflation Gauge Shows Price Hikes Slowed; Putin Vows Strong Response to Ukraine. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired August 13, 2024 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Coming home. The new threat by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Russia after a surprise incursion by Ukraine into Russian territory.

We are standing by for key numbers on inflation. What they could mean for the stock market and your wallet.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:35:32]

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: From viral moment to big crowds at rallies, the surge in enthusiasm for Kamala Harris' presidential campaign has translated to higher polling numbers.

But our senior data reporter Harry Enten is here to remind us it is still way too soon to count the other candidate, Donald Trump, out.

We're just under three months to the election.

HARRY ENTEN, SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes.

SIDNER: How much does enthusiasm predict what's going to happen at the poll?

ENTEN: Yes, right, exactly. I mean the thing that - we put out those poll numbers yesterday. You know, "The New York Times," Sienna College, we covered them. I showed you the Ipsos polling. All of which that showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum, enthusiasm potentially on her side.

But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out, we've kind of been here before. So, August 13th, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. And this is in 2016 and 2020. Trump was estimated both times around and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016, the average poll in those states that I mentioned, those Great Lake battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn't a one-off. Look at this, he was underestimated by five points on average. And, of course, Kamala Harris' advantage in those "New York Times," Sienna College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

The bottom line is this. If you have any idea, if you're a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift, like we've seen in prior years from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I'm not saying that's going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now. And compare that to where he was in prior years.

SIDNER: We certainly heard the Harris campaign saying, we have to keep fighting.

ENTEN: Absolutely.

SIDNER: This is definitely not over.

All right, let's talk about enthusiasm and how that translates actually. We are quite a ways out. Again, three months about.

ENTEN: Yes, you know, you, yesterday, I was mentioning, you know, the enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket was up.

SIDNER: Yes.

ENTEN: But that enthusiasm is not the same thing as going out to actually vote. And there's a different question which essentially says, how certain are you actually going to go out and vote. And this is the top range. Almost certain to vote. Again, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This is among registered voters. Look at this. Look at Kamala Harris now compared to where Joe Biden was back in May. In fact, 62 percent of Joe Biden voters said they were almost certain to turn out and vote. Now -

SIDNER: It's gone down.

ENTEN: It's actually gone down a little bit. I would call this in the same general area at 61 percent. But it's basically unchanged.

And look at Donald Trump. He was at 58 percent in May. He's actually gone up a little bit now. He's at 60 percent now. Again, basically, no real change.

So, the bottom line here is, yes, there may be more enthusiasm for Kamala Harris, but the fact is we're not seeing that necessarily translate in the almost certain to vote.

And one little other note, Sara.

SIDNER: Yes.

ENTEN: I will note this. Donald Trump is more popular today than he was on August 13th in either 2020 or 2016. So, the bottom line is, yes, Kamala Harris is doing better in the polls, but there's a long way to go. The polls can shift. The almost certain to vote hasn't actually shifted and Donald Trump is more popular than he was at either 2016 or 2020 at this point.

SIDNER: Those are interesting data points, Harry Enten. Thank you so much. Appreciate you.

ENTEN: Thank you.

SIDNER: Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Joining us now, CNN political commentator Shermichael Singleton and Paul Begala.

Paul, take where that conversation, what the - the bright spots for Donald Trump, if you will, that Harry Enten was pointing to right there and add this into it as "Axios" is talking today about - the way they put it is Trump's panicked pivot, a flurry of movements aimed at Harris' momentum, Trump yesterday, Monday, posted on X for the first time in nearly a year, sat for a rambling two hour conversation with Elon Musk, unveiled a barrage of online ads, scheduled trips to two swing states, beefed up his team by bringing a former aide - bringing on a former aide who led a pro-Trump super PAC.

You see that and you think what?

PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Well, I think necessary but not sufficient, honestly, just set my Democratic hat on. If I worked for Trump, I'd put him out there. Why is he sitting in Mar-a-Lago talking to this billionaire on his Twitter machine, right? He ought to be out there. Why isn't he in Michigan Why isn't he in Wisconsin? Why isn't he in Pennsylvania? Why isn't he in Arizona? I honestly don't know.

People who listened to that discussion, as it were, on X, I did not, said that he was slurring his words. He seemed discombobulated, as - as I am right now. I just - I think that there's something going on with Trump. And it may just be that he's thrown off by Kamla Harris, but it does point the way to the Democrats' new way of taking on Mr. Trump, which I think is very smart.

[08:40:00]

It used to be Democrats were like, oh, scream and yell, oh, hair on fire, he's a threat, he's a strong man, he's a dictator. And my hair was on fire so much I don't have any left.

Now they're switching to ridicule, right? Much more effective. You know, Alynsky's (ph) rules for radical number five. Ridicule is our most potent weapon because the target does not know how to respond. Trump doesn't know what to do.

And the thing on X was just a target rich environment. It was just a complete joke. I mean, you know, I - it just was - it was pathetic. And I don't understand why they have a guy who's really good at rallies and they're not putting him out there in rallies in swing states. I don't get it.

BOLDUAN: Your self-awareness is one of your more endearing qualities, Paul Begala.

Shermichael, a pro-Trump super PAC just announced - announced in the past day that it's spending $100 million on ads between now and Labor Day to run ads in seven swing states. Can that blunt the momentum that is evidenced in the polling now for Kamala Harris?

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: I mean, it's certainly going to help, Kate. The campaign is also spending 73 million. So, combined, you're getting close to $200 million over the next three weeks in an effort to define Vice President Harris, in an effort to define her running mate, Governor Walz. Early voting will start in September. You just saw with Harry Enten how close the poll numbers are despite the fact that Vice President Harris does have a national lead.

If you take into account the numbers from 2016 and 2020 where Donald Trump appeared to be further behind than he actually was. If you take into the 9 points from 2016 to 5 points from 2020, then you actually see a race that's either dead even or at least with Trump a point ahead. And so I do think there is still an opportunity to potentially shift some of those numbers before people in those early battleground states begin to vote early come mid-September.

BOLDUAN: So, one of the - one of the states to watch was and is Arizona. And, Paul, we've now learned that abortion will be on the ballot in Arizona this November. The secretary of states certifying that an abortion access measure has more than enough of the signatures required. The proposed amendment would allow abortions until a fetus could survive outside the womb, typically around 24 weeks. It would restrict the state from adopting or enforcing any law that would prohibit abortion access.

I am wondering now what this could mean for voter turnout for the presidential race, and also the closely watched Senate race there, Paul.

BEGALA: Right. The Dobbs decision, 2022, was the most important single day political moment I have seen since 9/11. It changed everything in politics. And it will for years to come. This has not aged well, right? The gay rights decision though, Obergefell, that aged very well. The day came out, people didn't - a lot of people didn't like it. Over time, everybody accepted it. People are not accepting Dobbs, especially the women of America. And, by the way, there are many guys who like women and who do also want to restore Roe versus Wade.

This is a huge issue for Kamala Harris and the Democrats. And so, yes, it's going to - it's going to move voters in Arizona. It's going to move voters - because, listen to what Kamala Harris is saying. She's got a new ad out too and she says, I want the same abortion rights in every state. I want the - she wants to go back to Roe versus Wade, where every state had to have the same essential abortion laws. That is a really powerful driver because the problem over abortion for democrats is, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania all had Democratic governors who have pledged to veto any restrictions on abortion. So, when Kamala Harris says, Trump and Project 2025 wants to eliminate abortion rights in all states. I want to enshrine them in all states. Now, you're giving voters, not only in Arizona where it's on the ballot, but in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, where it's not, you're giving them a reason to go and vote pro-choice.

BOLDUAN: Shermichael, real quick, does this make - does Arizona making you nervous now when you know this is going to be on the ballot?

SINGLETON: I mean, Kate, I'm going to be honest with you, I don't think there is a Republican strategist in this country who's worth their salt who would not tell you, holy smoke, this is not what you want on the ballot before a hotly contested election.

We know after two years of electoral data that this issue mobilizes the heck out of Democrats, it mobilizes suburban women voters. It's why you've seen the former president attempting to moderate his stance and what a state should vote on the issue. And by that I think he means ballot initiatives, allowing voters in those states to vote on the issue.

But this is just not good for Republicans because it not only gins up turnout, but it gins up turnout for Democrats. That is the opposite effect you want in a hotly contested race.

BOLDUAN: Good for - good for voters is seeing you two on television. Thank you both.

SINGLETON: Good to see you, Kate.

BOLDUAN: John.

BERMAN: All right, we got some news just in. A brand-new read on inflation. What producers are paying, the PPI, slowing down at a bit cooler than expected.

CNN's Paula Newton is here. So, what are we seeing?

PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely a good day. We can keep calm and carry on. And why? That's because it's less than expected, 0.1 percent for July.

[08:45:01]

That's 2.2 percent year over year. Much less than expected. And when we see that 2 percent figure anywhere, year over year, that is the goldilocks moment, John.

Now, I want you to know, these numbers mean we've got two hands on the steering wheel right now. We are not swerving like we did last week over those job numbers, right, where we had employment go up and fewer jobs created than we expected.

This gives us a good indication, John, that coming tomorrow, which is the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, it means likely that what you and I may be feeling when we go to the grocery store or anywhere else to get a service or good, prices are moderating. And that is a good thing. Why is it a good thing? Obviously, a good thing for all of our

pocketbooks. But beyond that, it means that the Federal Reserve is again likely to lower interest rates by at least a quarter point beginning in September, and perhaps more than that.

I mean, don't get me wrong, sometimes some of these numbers, if you look too deeply into them - do not look to deeply, John - you can see some problems with the consumer. And the fact you have weakness from the consumer.

And for that I also want to go to Home Depot that reported this morning. John, this is so important, right? It's such a good measure of how all of us are feeling about the economy, what we're doing in terms of our homes, our home improvement. The CEO today, while they had good results, they are saying, "during the last quarter, higher interest rates and greater macro-economic uncertainty pressured consumer demand more broadly, resulting in weaker spend across home improvement projects."

You know, this is one segment, and I don't have to remind you that the home situation in terms of real estate, rents, whatever it is, people have been feeling the squeeze. The housing market not in a good place. Hopefully the lower interest rates will solve that problem.

But we are pointing to lower consumer demand. And also it is that political uncertainty, right, John. People just aren't feeling good - in a good place right now for many reasons.

When we go back to these numbers, though, good numbers. We'll look to see what happens to inflation. And I don't know if we can put up futures for today. Futures like this right now, they're taking a really good deep dive into the numbers. They like this. The markets are up. As I said, two hands on the steering wheel. You know, up - they're not going crazy here, but up a substantial amount for the kind of recovery that we had after that volatility last week.

I will say, Walmart also reporting on Thursday, big indicator, right? They have key data points that will really tell us exactly what the consumer is thinking. So, hey, it's good. It's a good morning. We're driving straight.

BERMAN: It's kind of like a slight smile from the markets this morning saying, hey, all right, looking forward to consumer prices tomorrow.

NEWTON: I'd call it a smirk. We'll call it a smirk.

BERMAN: A smirk is fine.

NEWTON: Yes.

BERMAN: Very good. Paula Newton, great to see you. Thank you very much.

Sara.

SIDNER: That is what I get from John Berman when I walk in at 4:00 in the morning.

All right, we're now learning details about the Democratic National Convention and who's going to be there, including this guy, former presidents, showing up to back Kamala Harris. We'll talk about that.

And there's this. A huge water main break caused a geyser that drenched a New Jersey home. The pressure so powerful apparently damaged the roof. The mayor says the water main break was caused by contractors. People living there had to be evacuated. No one was hurt though.

More stories ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:52:31]

BOLDUAN: Russian President Vladimir Putin is on defense this morning. During a meeting with his top officials, Putin vowed a strong response to the Ukrainian ground operation into Russia's Kursk region.

There's new video also out this morning of what is happening there and what's happened. A warning, the video you're about to see is graphic. It's video from a Russian soldier's body camera. And as he's walking, showing a trail of dead bodies near the Kursk border with Ukraine.

Joining me now is CNN military analyst, retired U.S. Army Major General Spider Marks.

It's good to see you, Spider. Thanks for being here.

So, two years into this stalemate. This is a new tactic for Ukraine. Ukraine's own forces marching miles across the border in this surprise operation. And it's been going on for a week now. What do you think of this as a tactic, and what - and what do you think they've accomplished?

MAJ. GEN. JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Kate, what I - what you're really seeing right now is a capability that Ukrainians have demonstrated in the past but on Ukrainian soil. They - they did some significant flanking operations and tactical engagements in the vicinity of Kharkiv and have made that battle where the Russians have just again fallen on their face, a great success for Ukraine.

So, what Ukraine now is doing is taking a page from that experience and linking it into a greater operation into Russia. Now, the difficulty with that is that if those operations, both in Kharkiv by the Ukrainians and now this Ukrainian flanking operation in the vicinity of Kursk, are not connected in some way. If there's a gap, that's a gap that can be exploited by the Russians. But let's be frank, the Russians have demonstrated zero capacity to detect those kinds of openings, and then to exploit them. They haven't been able to do that. So, I would say what we're seeing right now, tremendous success on the part of the Ukrainians. What remains to be seen is whether they intend to remain, to build up,

to pour more forces in if they think they can take forces from elsewhere and reinforced this success, or if this is simply an opportunity to demonstrate the vulnerability and the inability of the Russian forces.

BOLDUAN: Yes, because I was going to ask you, Claire Sebastian pointed out earlier that this is the first time that a foreign power has held any part of Russian territory since the second world war. Can Ukraine convert this into, what you said, you know, building off of.

[08:55:06]

But I'm also wondering, converted into pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine. I mean how do they build off of this successfully?

MARKS: Yes, that's - that's the exact point. The advantage of this operation has to be tied. There has to be - there have to have been a calculation that this operation will do more than just simply bolster the morale of the Ukrainian forces and the Ukrainian people, which it certainly is. But there has to be a connection between this operation and success elsewhere. You don't want to put yourself at increased risk where you're engaged with Russian forces.

And again, Kate, the Russians have been able to poor young men into this fight with a level of certainty that they're not going to do well, but the law of large numbers gives them that advantage.

So, if the Russians continue to do that and revert back to the way of Russian war, which is just to continue to lob artillery at infrastructure irrespective of the tactical conditions on the ground, that's going to be very difficult for Ukraine to sustain this operation and make sure it's tied in. I mean that's - that's what we're seeing right now.

I would imagine that the Ukrainians are going to take advantage of this. Watch the Russian try - Russian forces try to reinforce in some way, which, as I've said, have - up to date have not been able to do that. And if they can start to build, Russian forces can begin to threaten that flank of the Ukrainian forces, then they can do a retreat back into Ukraine. I would expect that that might happen because Ukraine is going to reach a culminating point. All operations like this culminate you run out of drones, you run out of fuel, you run out of ammunition, those kinds of legitimate considerations have to be brought to the surface. (INAUDIBLE).

BOLDUAN: Yes, so interesting. And just - and kind of to your point, Putin's responses is promising, warning, threatening of a strong response to this operation and what that exactly means we will see.

It's good to see you, Spider. Thank you so much.

MARKS: Thank you, Kate.

BOLDUAN: Oh, while I have you. While I have you -- I'm so sorry, while I have you, I wanted to quickly ask you about Israel because it - what it really has become a waiting game of sorts, my description, Israel and the United States waiting for Iran's retaliatory strikes. The U.S. deploying and announcing the deployment of a submarine to the region. Is Iran taking its time? Is that how you would describe it? And if so, why?

MARKS: Iran is taking its time and Iran is legitimately concerned that if their response caused too much - if they had an unintended success against Israel, they would end up with a response by Israel that would be devastating. That's their concern. Iran does not want to get its hands dirty. They don't want to get directly involved in this fight. They have to walk a very thin line because they have to respond to - you know, they've got a domestic challenge, right? They've got to go back to the Iranian people and say, hey, we're in charge. We're not going to let this stand, you know, and bang their shoe on the table a little bit.

They are legitimately concerned that if they overreach against Israel, Israel will crush them in very specific ways against very specific targets.

BOLDUAN: What does overreach - what - where is the line? I've had it described to me as it - it's going to be or needs to be in order to not overreach, it needs to look like what had happened in April. What do you think?

MARKS: Yes, that - look, the Iran's could take - anything they do, irrespective of outcome, and they can spin a narrative and they can say, look, we've responded, we're doing - we're doing our part here. You guys are in good hands. We're still in charge, you know, irregardless (ph) or regardless of what took place. Irregardless (ph) is what my football coach used to say. But, regardless of what takes place on the ground.

The key thing is the proxies. Hezbollah has a tremendous amount of capacity. They're going to try to overwhelm clearly the Iron Dome and the air defense capacity, that layered air defense capacity that the Israelis have. The challenge is, if Hezbollah achieves a level of success and Israel feels like they're going to respond, Tehran now has underwritten that and they're going to have to be prepared.

BOLDUAN: Spider, it's great to see you. Thank you so much.

MARKS: Thank you, Kate.

BOLDUAN: A new hour of CNN NEWS CENTRAL starts now.

BERMAN: This morning, Donald Trump's big Twitter rollout after a glitchy beginning. He both attacks Vice President Harris, but also compares her to Melania. Go figure.

Roger Stone, a longtime Trump operative, convicted for testimony he gave about connections to WikiLeaks, is now himself at the center of a possible campaign hack. The new investigation.

[09:00:03]