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New Polling Shows Democratic Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris with Leads over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin; Kamala Harris's Polling Improvement with Women Possibly Fueling New Leads in Swing States. Aired 8-8:30a ET

Aired September 19, 2024 - 08:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:00:00]

ZIVA BRANSTETTER, PROPUBLICA SENIOR EDITOR: These are two women who are mothers. Candi Miller had three children, died in bed with her three- year-old with her. Amber Thurman has a three-year-old son that now family members are raising. The mortality rate in Georgia is highest in the nation, three times higher for women of color.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: How many other stories like this do you think are out there?

BRANSTETTER: We don't really know. All we have to go by are the days before Roe there were hundreds of deaths from what was then called septic abortion. ProPublica is very interested in hearing from family members of loved ones we have died while pregnant, maybe unable to access care. They may have had chronic conditions, like Candi Miller who had lupus. We're very interested in looking at these cases, doing what we can to uncover the real causes. We think there needs to be more transparency among state maternal mortality boards which operate two years behind. So who knows how many cases are out there? We would like to know.

BOLDUAN: No matter the decision, the political decisions made at those -- at the state level, the transparency of what is happening within the state is important for everyone when they're making decisions on this. Thank you so much, Ziva, and your teams great reporting. It is deserving for everyone to read both of these articles. And I'm sure there will be more to come to get a feel of this. Thank you very much.

A new hour of CNN NEWS CENTRAL starts right now.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: So what Harry Enten just called the best polling for Kamala Harris arguably of the entire campaign, not the national polling you're seeing right there, but pages and pages of new battleground polls breaking overnight.

Check your car loans and credit cards, what you pay is going down.

And then a sharp drop in fatal drug overdoses hitting their lowest levels in three years. What is behind this promising trend?

Sarah Sidner is out. I'm John Berman with Kate Bolduan. This is CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

As I said, breaking overnight, we got tons of new polling from battleground states. Let me get right to it because these are the states that everyone is watching the most closely. Let's talk about Pennsylvania here. We have three polls up here. They're actually five out. They all showed directionally mostly the same thing. You see "The New York Times"-Sienna poll shows Harris with a four point lead in Pennsylvania. Marist shows it tied. Quinnipiac, a six-point lead. There was a Franklin and Marhsall poll out that showed Harris three points, a "Washington Post" poll with one point.

Take away from this the average, Harris slightly up, maybe, according to this new polling in Pennsylvania. This isn't moving.

Other important states I want you to look at here. You have Wisconsin and Michigan. Marist shows a one-point edge in Wisconsin, Quinnipiac, a one-point edge. That's basically tied in Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris up five, in Marist, up five, in Quinnipiac -- again in these three polls and polls we've seen what you basically see is a very slight edge for Harris maybe in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Why is that important? Well, it may be, frankly, everything. This is the race to 270, the race to 270 electoral votes. These yellow states are the states right now that are, frankly, too close to call, toss-up states. If you look at this new polling which may show a slight edge for Harris in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, look at that, those states and just those states give her 270 electoral votes and would give her the election no matter what, even if Donald Trump won in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. That would be enough. Still, these three states alone for Harris.

Now, of course you could say, if Trump wins any one of these states, even Wisconsin, which has the fewest electoral votes among them, he would then win the election. But again, the story here right now is these states in and of themselves would be enough, a clear path to 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris. Kate?

BOLDUAN: Let's use this as a jumping off point and talk about these polls were senior editor for "The Atlantic," CNN senior political analyst Ron Brownstein, and national political correspondent at "Politico" political Meridith McGraw. Thanks guys. Meredith, polls galore, John lays it out perfectly so we don't have to sum it up one more time. What are the campaigns likely to do with this data today?

MEREDITH MCGRAW, "POLITICO": Well, polls galore. We've been waiting to see what would happen after the debate, if Harris was going to get some sort of bump after the square off between Trump and Harris. But both of these campaigns are going to be engaged in a kind of the trench warfare, politically speaking, in these battleground states as they spend a lot of time, a lot of capital visiting the states, getting more voter data to figure out exactly who they need to be tailoring their message to with just seven weeks left until the November election.

[08:05:15] BOLDUAN: Ron, one piece that you're looking closer at is this trend among college and non-college white women in each state. What do you see?

BROWNSTEIN: Yes. You know, as Mitt Romney would put it, we have cross tabs full of women jumping out on the polls.

BOLDUAN: An oldie, but a goodie.

BEVAN: An oldie but goodie.

Look, these are states in which there is a significant pro-choice majority that support abortion rights -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. And in 2022, the Democratic gubernatorial candidates in the first race post Dobbs, ran better than Biden did just two years earlier, both among college and non-college white women in those states. And of course, all three Democratic governor candidates won.

In this new Quinnipiac polling, and even in the Marist polling, which I was just scribbling on right before we came on the air, Harris is largely holding that improvement that we saw in 2022 for Democrats, both among the college and the non-college white women, which makes it very difficult for Trump to have the math add up, especially because she's even improving among the college white men.

The only place where he's running very strongly in these polls is among the non-college white men, and improving, interestingly, among black men. But those college white women, there are much bigger share of the electorate in these three states than the black men, and the non-college white women are even bigger yet.

One last point, Kate, it's really important to remember that since 1980 these three states have voted together in every presidential election except one. They even voted the same way for governor in every election since 1994, except one. And if you look just at Michigan and Pennsylvania, they voted the same way in the presidential election every time except once for the last 80 years. And that that was when Michigan had their native son, Gerald Ford, on the ballot. They tend to move together. They're very similar demographically, economically, culturally. And that's why they are the principal areas of focus for the campaigns, both in time and money once again, in 2024.

BOLDUAN: Ron, really quick on that, because I've been reading and enjoying your analysis when it comes to this. If they don't this time, what does that tell us about where these states are going?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, Pennsylvania has become a little bit harder for Democrats than the other two. If you look since 2000, Michigan, every election since 2000 has been the best for the Democrats out of the three of these. And once again, in this polling, it looks like Michigan is the best once again. She has kind of opened up a little bit of a lead there.

But you know, in 2020, Biden is showing among blue collar white voters was weaker in Pennsylvania than the other two, his showing in midsize cities was weaker in Pennsylvania than the other two. I don't think I fully understand all the reasons for that, but one I think would be that the deindustrialization has been even more profound and Pennsylvania than in Michigan and Wisconsin. I mean, there is still a functioning auto industry. There's billions of dollars being invested in transitioning to the E.V. revolution. There is not a really functioning steel industry or coal industry in western Pennsylvania. So the loss might even be greater and thus their receptivity to Trump's kind of message of both cultural and economic grievance even more profound.

BOLDUAN: Definitely a conversation for us to have now and after the election, Meredith. I want to read one quote from Tim Malloy. He's the Quinnipiac University of polling analyst. He wrote "Three crucial swing states, we have a red flag at the Trump campaign. The GOP's most go-to attack strategies against Democrats on immigration and the economy maybe losing momentum. Likely voters now see little daylight in most cases between Harris and Trump on who can best handle those key issues."

If she is gaining on the economy, let's just say, and that remains, what does that mean for strategies and the shifting nature of the strategies that are needed for where Harris and Trump are defending and attacking, like the blocking and tackling of this election?

MCGRAW: We've seen consistently that Trump has fared better in polls on those two key issues. But you're right, Harris is starting to get closer to Trump on them and in some cases has edged him out. And for Trump in his campaign, they keep pushing him with these policy events where they set him up to talk about the economy. But sometimes he goes off the rails in what he talks about. And having some sort of message discipline is something that I keep hearing from Trump allies about his campaign.

[08:10:00]

But the Quinnipiac poll especially should have some red blinking lights for them in terms of how they should be communicating with these voters on the ground.

I will say, too, with Harris, something we keep hearing though, is that she too needs to articulate her policies a little bit more clearly and what she stands for in terms of her economic policies versus the Biden administration. But I think we're going to I continue to see that play out in the next several weeks as both these campaigns try to make their case on both the economy, on immigration.

BOLDUAN: I am starting to, I'm starting to wonder how detailed the Harris campaign thinks they really need to be to go when it comes to policy for the remainder of this election, but we'll see. It's great to see you guys. Thank you so much. John?

BERMAN: All right, Iranian hackers infiltrated the Trump campaign's emails and sent them unsolicited to President Biden's team. We've got new reporting on this this morning.

How soon could you feel the impacts of the first interest rate cut by the Fed in four years?

And homes literally melted. Look at that -- I'm melting -- after a pipeline burst into flames.

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[08:15:34]

BERMAN: All right, what does the first interest rate cut since 2020 mean for you? The half-point cut big shows the Fed is shifting its targets from inflation to employment.

With us now, Jean Chatzky, CEO of HerMoney and host of the "HerMoney" Podcast. Thank you so much for being with us.

Look, I know economists, Wall Street, everyone watching this Fed move so closely yesterday, they're them. What about regular people? What does this mean for you today?

JEAN CHATZKY, CEO, HERMONEY: It means that overall borrowers are going to start to get a bit of a break and savers are going to start to lose the edge that we've been enjoying for the past couple of years with interest rates over five percent. But we can break it down category by category.

BERMAN: When? I mean, you have a car loan, you have a credit card, you saving money today, tomorrow, your next bill?

CHATZKY: Rates are going to start to come down pretty quickly. On credit cards, specifically, the average interest rate right now is 23 percent, half a point is not going to make a difference.

You want to do better on your credit card. You need just shop around for a credit card that has a lower interest rate and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau actually alerted people that the 25 largest credit card issuers have rates that are eight to ten points higher than you can typically get at a credit union or a community bank.

So, if you're suffering under those interest rates, this half a percentage point is not going to mean that much for you. Similarly, on an auto loan, the best deals are not found by financing through a manufacturer at today's rates.

The best deals are found either by refinancing, again at a credit union or somebody making a better rate or by going with a deal that is offering some sort of a break on manufacturer's financing.

Similarly, with those savings rates, they're going to start to fall pretty quickly. And so, if you've had your money locked up in a five percent high-yield savings account, that's going to come down to four- and-a-half percent. And with each successive rate cut, come down again.

And so, if you want to maintain those rates, now's the time to start looking at perhaps locking your money up in a CD for a year or two or however long it is until you need that money.

BERMAN: Yes, some of those easy savings decisions will be changing, five percent was a pretty easy decision for a lot of people in terms of how to save. But man, when you say that credit card interest rate, 23 percent, it takes your breath away. Credit card debt is just so insidious for so many people.

How about Jerome Powell, the way he spoke about the economy and how the Fed is going to approach it the next several months or even a year. How will that impact people in their everyday lives?

CHATZKY: Look, he was very frank about the fact that they are going to go meeting by meeting. But if you look at the progression, what were expecting is that by the end of the year, interest rates will come down to about 4.4 percent; next year, were looking at 3.6 percent, in 2026, at 2.9 percent.

The big thing that everybody is watching here is the housing market. The housing market has just been locked up because 89 percent of people have mortgage rates under six percent, it makes it very, very difficult for them to move and get themselves into a new thing 30-year loan that's going to cost them more money than that.

Though as rates start to fall, we expect to see the housing market start to ease up a little bit. People will start to move around. They'll be able to unlock some of that value that they've got in those homes that have appreciated, that should spur some spending as people take out, HILOCs and start to use some of that money. So that should benefit the consumer overall.

BERMAN: All right, Jean Chatzky, always great to speak with you. Thanks so much for being with us this morning.

[08:20:02]

All right, never back down, never admit fault. Never apologize. New reporting this morning on what Axios is calling the zero-shame a strategy of JD Vance.

And then, staggering statistic shows just how many golf balls get lost each and every year . I was going to surprise you, but I just gave away the surprise. It's billions, like billions and billions of golf balls, which is lot of golf balls.

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BOLDUAN: Tonight, Kamala Harris is holding what the campaign hopes will be a huge virtual rally with Oprah Winfrey. They will be in Detroit, but more than more than 90,000 people are expected to tune in on line with a group known as Win With Black Women, as for making the case for White men, the Harris campaign strategy to build that coalition is taking new shape. Here's Jeff Zeleny.

[08:25:16]

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN), VICE PRESIDENT CANDIDATE: Cracks in the glass

ceiling aren't enough. We need to make sure that that glass ceiling is shattered and Kamala Harris steps through.

JEFF ZELENY, CNN SENIOR WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT (voice over): Tim Walz is hard at work on one of his most important assignments.

WALZ: You saw Kamala Harris can take care of herself. Our job is to do the blocking and tackling and cover her back.

ZELENY (voice over): He and his running mate rarely discussed gender, yet to gender gap may help decide the election.

Strong support from women has put Kamala Harris within reach of defeating Donald Trump.

KAMALA HARRIS (D) VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When we fight, we win.

ZELENY (voice over): Her campaign is racing to win over another critical set of voters, men.

ANTHONY HERNANDEZ, UNDECIDED NORTH CAROLINA VOTER: It will be phenomenal to have the first female president. And that's exciting. Also, Donald Trump is a strong president, you know, he gets things done.

ZELENY (voice over): Anthony Hernandez a 36-year-old North Carolina voter is among those at the center of an intense tug of war. His ultimate decision holds clues for November.

ZELENY (on camera): So, are you undecided?

HERNANDEZ: Definitely undecided, yes, I didn't know Kamala was so well-spoken, you know, that was a change from Biden.

ZELENY (voice over): The Trump campaign is working to widen its advantage with male voters overall, particularly young men with the former president deploying old school muscle.

HULK HOGAN, AMERICAN PROFESSIONAL WRESTLER: Trumpamania, run wild brother.

ZELENY (voice over): As Democrats take a far different approach to chip away at Trump's edge with Walz speaking directly to husbands and fathers.

WALZ: Do you want JD Vance deciding about your wife and daughter's health?

ZELENY (voice over): His frequent rhetoric on abortion rights.

WALZ: Mind your own damn business.

ZELENY (voice over): Struck a chord with Tobey Pierce, who saw Walz Tuesday night in Asheville. TOBEY PIERCE, NORTH CAROLINA VOTER, SUPPORTS HARRIS: It's none of your

damn business, it is my motto now, I think that's a wonderful way to talk about the whole abortion and reproductive rights.

ZELENY (voice over): At a rain-soaked rally, Alex Vigil and Kevin Miller, said they believe Trump exhaustion could help Democrats make inroads with men and women alike.

ALEX VIGIL, NORTH CAROLINA VOTER, SUPPORTS HARRIS: I'm seeing a lot less Trump flags in our parking lot. I'm seeing a lot more for my staff who used to for Trump, a little more excited or a little pushing Trump away.

KEVIN MILLER, NORTH CAROLINA VOTER, SUPPORTS HARRIS: I'm hoping that it's going to be a surprise to be a lot more men than we think.

ZELENY (voice over): This t-shirt was a gift to Bruce Sergeant (ph) from his daughter after Trump was first elected. He knows he's in the minority when it comes to how many men vote.

BRUCE SERGEANT, NORTH CAROLINA VOTER, SUPPORTS HARRIS:: We are going to rely on a lot of the women showing now. The men just need you to stand behind those women and come out with them.

ZELENY (voice over): It's an open question just how many men will do that, even those here, like Stanley Benedict, not fully enamoured with Trump plan to vote for him.

STANLEY BENEDICT, NORTH CAROLINA VOTER, SUPPORTS TRUMP: He's got a big ego and sometimes it's a little too big. He seemed to this horror a lot, but I support him because he proved himself.

ZELENY (voice over): While the outcome of the Trump-Harris duel may turn on the gender gap or the balance of who men and women support. In this election, gender itself is far less a part of the discussion.

WALZ: Kamala Harris isn't talking about the historic nature of this. She just put your nose down and does the work.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BOLDUAN: And Jeff Zeleny is with us. Jeff, that's a great look and we always love hearing from voters. But talk to me about -- there's a slew of new polling that's come out and some of it shows -- it is showing just how wide the gender gap is and the challenges that it presents for both.

ZELENY: Kate, it is so interesting, in a race that could be won or lost on the margins, men are at the center of those margins. Take a look at those new polls you just mentioned, the New York Times-Siena College poll nationally looking at women versus men, Harris versus Trump, you can see the difference there.

For Harris, 14-point split for Trump, a 12-point split that is why the Harris campaign is trying to eke out just a bit more support among men. They know they are not going to win men overall. They're trying to drive a turn up among women of course, but even if percentage or two could change the equation here.

The Trump campaign of course, also trying to do the same thing. So as we near the closing chapter of this race, women of course, are powering this campaign but it could be men who'll help decided it -- Kate.

BOLDUAN: Great to see you, Jeff. Thank you.

BERMAN: Hey, Jeff, is in Asheville, North Carolina, not far from the Smoky Mountains. I've done this live shot before and we've talked about this. I mean, it's so foggy, we are lucky we can see what all right there this morning.

ZELENY: But it's still beautiful, John.

BERMAN: Well, you are beautiful.

Jeff Zeleny, thank you so much.

BOLDUAN: Wait, I think we need to just to hit on -- there is an obsession of John Berman when it comes to the weather at certain live shot locations over the course of campaigns. What is it?

BERMAN: It's just because I have like this memory this painful memory of like GMA control room producers yelling at me, "We can't see you. It's so foggy."

But obviously, much nicer here at CNN. Thank you very much for being with us, Jeff.

All right, with us now, Republican strategist, former senior adviser to Tim Scott's presidential campaign, Matt Gorman; also with us Democratic strategist, Julie Roginsky.

I want to shift gears if I can here because Axios wrote something overnight that really raised my attention. It talks about JD Vance's zero-shame strategy. And this has to do with the fact that Donald Trump announced he's going to go to Springfield, Ohio, he claims the next two weeks.

Axios says of Vance and it has to do, I think, also with these claims about pets in Springfield.

Axios has backed into a corner over his baseless claims of Haitian pet eating in Ohio. Senator JD Vance is taking a page from Donald Trump's playbook: Never back down, never admit fault and never apologize.

What do you think about that?

[08:30:51]