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New CNN Poll: Race Virtually Tied With 6 Weeks Until Election Day; "Shame On Her": Sen. Manchin Says He Won't Endorse Harris; Israel: Hezbollah Missile Unit Chief Killed In Beirut Suburb Strike. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired September 24, 2024 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: Razor tight race. New CNN polling shows that the contest for the White House is neck and neck. We'll be looking at where the voters are on the issues and which candidate has the advantage heading into the last six weeks of this election.

And waves of strikes, Israel and Hezbollah exchanging fire after one of the deadliest days in Lebanon in nearly two decades as Israel's Prime Minister warns people to evacuate areas that the IDF is targeting, while not ruling out a ground invasion.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN HOST: And how did a workout with the Navy SEAL leave three Tufts University lacrosse players in the hospital? The answer lies with a rare condition that can be life threatening. We are following these major developing stories and many more all coming in right here to CNN News Central.

KEILAR: There is brand new CNN polling out today, giving us a fresh look at where the race for the White House stands with just six weeks to go until Election Day, and the numbers show it is yes, neck and neck, with 48 percent of likely voters nationwide supporting Vice President Harris and 47 percent backing former President Trump.

Among independent voters, the polling shows Harris and Trump roughly even 45 to 41 percent but this is a race that will come down to these battleground states. And today, Trump is in Georgia, where he is set to speak on the economy. Any minute now, Harris will be heading to Arizona later this week, where a source tells us she is planning to visit the U.S.-Mexico border. CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten is with us live now with a closer look on this new polling. What are the main takeaways here, Harry?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Yes, I think there are a few main takeaways, besides the fact that it is just such a razor, tight, thin race here. Look, I want to point out what I think is very interesting little nugget that I've seen not just in CNN's polling, but in other polling as well. You look among likely voters, again, no clear leader, Harris up by a point, but again, no clear leader. Among registered voters, it's a tie. And this is something that we've been seeing in a lot of the polling this year. That is when you sort of go down, limit yourself to those who are most likely to turn out and vote, or probabilistically, the people who are most likely to turn out and vote, or wait a little bit more. You see that Harris does a little bit better. That might forecast that maybe the Democrats might have a turnout advantage come November.

That's not the only thing that sort of snuck out or struck out to me about this particular poll, stuck out. What we see here, take a look at this trend line. This is the type of trend line I think Democrats love to see, all right. This is the Trump versus the Democrat. This is among registered voters. This is the margin. You go back to June, when it was Joe Biden is the presumptive Democrat nominee. Donald Trump had a six point advantage.

You go to July, when we're versus Harris, it's a three point advantage for Donald Trump. And today we stand at a tie. So the bottom line is this, yes, we have a razor tight matchup going on at this particular point, but the momentum over the last few months has certainly be heading in the Democrats direction.

KEILAR: And put this into context of other national surveys that we've seen this week.

ENTEN: Yes. So this is one particular poll, and you know, me, I like to look at a bunch of polls. And what we get here is essentially a smorgasbord of different results. The average lead for Harris across these polls is three points. But you can see they sort of, you know, go all the way from plus six for Harris in the "ABC News" poll, plus five in "NBC," plus four in "CBS," two in "Fox." We're right down here plus one, "The New York Times" had a tie. But the bottom line here is, Brianna, you see a lot more blue on your screen. You only see a little bit of red right here with Donald Trump in a tie.

But the bottom line is, it does seem, at least when you average the national polls, it is a small advantage for Kamala Harris, something that certainly welcome given where the national polls were just a few months ago.

KEILAR: And what does this mean for the Electoral College?

ENTEN: Yes. I mean, that's the big question, right? We talk about these national polls, but the bottom line is, it's a race to 270. So look, I think one way you can kind of get at this is Harris's chance is given a popular vote margin right, and what's the chance he wins the Electoral College?

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Look, the bottom line is, if you model it out, and we sort of get where that CNN poll is right, a plus one. In fact, I think Donald Trump would be favored in the Electoral College, right? Harris would just have a 33 percent chance of winning. But if you get closer to where the average poll is right, a plus two to plus three margin, then Harris is a slight favorite in the Electoral College. And indeed, if you model it out further, what I think you essentially will find is that at this particular point, Kamala Harris is the clear favorite to win the national popular vote at about a 73 percent chance of winning, but to win the electoral college, it's basically dead even at about a 53 percent chance.

So the bottom line is there -- Kamala Harris's chance of winning the popular vote is 20 percentage points higher, 20 points higher to win the popular vote than the Electoral College. So this national poll that we just got from CNN to me is very consistent with a tight race, not just nationally, but in the swing states and the Electoral College as well.

KEILAR: All right, Harry, thank you for taking us through that. We appreciate it. Very close indeed.

ENTEN: Thank you.

KEILAR: Jim?

SCIUTTO: Happening right now, these are live pictures in fact, former President Trump speaking in the critical swing state of Georgia as he turns his attention to a key perhaps the biggest issue for many voters, the economy. CNN national correspondent, Kristen Holmes, live on the trail with the Trump campaign in Savannah. And Kristen an economic message planned today. What do we expect the substance of that message to be? And do we expect him to stick to that message?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim, the question, of course, always is whether or not he's going to stick to the message. But when it comes to the economy, as you noted, one probably the most important issue for voters, but also one of the key issues for the Trump campaign, they believe if he can double down on this messaging, and actually stick to the messaging talking about the economy, it could help propel him to the White House in November.

Now, one of the things you can see, I'm not sure if you can see it on the sign behind me, this is 15 percent corporate taxes. One of the things Donald Trump has promised is that, if he is reelected, he would lower corporate taxes to 15 percent just for companies who produce only in the United States, very different from what we have seen on the Harris side, which says they will actually raise corporate taxes.

Again, all of this is what Donald Trump is planning to say. He also is going to, or at least planning to talk about outsourcing jobs, bringing outsourced jobs back into America, bringing other companies back into America. And will we see whether or not he can focus on that.

Now I do want to quickly talk about Georgia, because it's the first time he's been in this state since early August, and a lot has changed since then. One of the things you'll remember is that during a rally in Atlanta just a few weeks ago, he was bashing Governor Brian Kemp, a Republican, a popular Republican in the state, much to the chagrin of not only campaign advisers, but also allies and Republicans as a whole, who believed they needed Kemp's help to win this state. Since then, Trump has really capitulated to the Georgia Governor and enlisted his help in the state. It is a critical battleground state, and one that Republicans were far more sure of when Biden was at the top of the ticket. So we'll see if any of his messaging is specifically centered around, as you said, this critical battleground state. Jim?

SCIUTTO: Kristen Holmes, thanks so much.

Let's speak about all this more with Marc Lotter, former Special Assistant to President Trump and Megan Hayes, former Biden White House Director of Message Planning.

KEILAR: And Mark, you have former President Trump casting himself as a, quote, protector of women at the rally that we saw him out in Pennsylvania last night. Let's listen to that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Because I am your protector. I want to be your protector as President. I have to be your protector. I hope you don't make too much of it.

The country is falling apart. We're going to end up in World War III, and all they can talk about is abortion. That's all they talk about, and it really no longer pertains, because we've done something on abortion that nobody thought was possible.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: I am curious, curious about what both you think. Marc, do you think that's a -- a winning message, as he's framing that?

MARC LOTTER, FORMER SPECIAL ASSISTANT TO PRESIDENT TRUMP FORMER: Well, I think for many women who worry about grocery prices, who worry about crime, who worry about the wide open southern border, he does view himself as the protector on those interests. And I know a lot of folks think that women all think just one thing on one issue, but when we look at a lot the broad issues, the economy, immigration, crime, overall, safety, Donald Trump is going to win that argument. I think that's what he's reminding people of.

SCIUTTO: Megan, I have to wonder, though, that phrase -- phraseology he used, he's going to protect women. I -- I wonder how you think, and if you have any data showing how women voters view him as a protector, whether on those issues or other issues?

MEGHAN HAYS, FORMER BIDEN WHITE HOUSE DIRECTOR OF MESSAGE PLANNING: Yes. I mean, I don't -- I don't have any data per se. I just don't think that that's what women are going to be voting on, that Donald Trump is our protector. I think a lot of women these -- in this election don't just view this as abortion. They view this as women's healthcare. And I think it's a reproductive freedom. So it's not just abortion, it's making choices about your healthcare that are being taken away.

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So you know where the former president should stick to talking about the economy and should stick to talking about immigration, because I do think that that would help him and win some of these independent voters saying he's a protector of women is -- is not something that's going to fall flat. As we all saw, he was convicted and has 34 felony counts. So I mean that -- that message, I think, falls flat with women.

KEILAR: All right, if you guys stay with us for just a moment, we do need to go to the Hill, because we have some new information coming in. And our Manu Raju, is there. A key vote -- a key voice, I should say, not going to endorse Vice President Harris, Manu?

MANU RAJU, CNN CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right. That Senator Joe Manchin, who had long been, of course, a moderate Democrat from West Virginia, recently became an independent, but someone who is still caucuses with Democrats, and had been signaling just a couple weeks ago, told me that he was getting ready, getting closer to endorse Kamala Harris, as he heard a lot of her proposals going forward.

But now that she has said that she would gut the Senate filibuster rules in order to pass a measure to preserve abortion rights, Manchin tells us this morning that he -- she -- he will not endorse Harris for president. He is one of the staunchest supporters of -- of the filibuster in the Senate. He -- Manchin argues that it is essential to forcing bipartisan consensus and compromise in the Senate. He's in the minority of Democrats in particular, who are pushing to gut this altogether, because it would lower the threshold for advancing legislation from 60 votes to 51 if Kamala Harris had her way.

But just moments ago, Manchin told our colleague, Ted Barrett, he said -- he said, quote, shame on her, referring to Harris. He says that she knows the filibuster is the holy grail of democracy. And Manchin went on to say, it's the only thing that keeps us talking and working together. If she gets rid of that, then this would be the house on steroids. And then Ted went on to ask him whether she would consider endorsing her, and he said, quote, that ain't going to happen.

So he could have given her some effort -- as the Harris is trying to move to the middle, guys, perhaps she could have touted a Manchin endorsement, which seemed to be coming to her side, but now that she has said this, he says, no way, that is not going to happen, as she tries to promise her voters she can get abortion rights passed and if she wins the presidency in November. Guys?

SCIUTTO: Notable, no question. Bring the panel back here. I mean, we should acknowledge some hyperbole, given the filibuster did already die for Supreme Court appointments, which, as we both know, Marc and Meghan created a different threshold to -- to get Supreme Court under the control that it is right now. But Meghan, there are, I think you can say, complicated views of Joe Manchin among some Democrats, though I imagine more popular among independent voters here, which is the -- which is the -- the winning issue there for Harris? Is it to say, hey, I'm going to go this far to protect abortion rights, I would support ending the -- the filibuster for abortion rights, or trying to keep that endorsement to perhaps win over some independents?

HAYS: I mean, I think that the abortion issue is the number one issue for Democrats. So I think that her protecting that is the way to go here. I think when you talk about some of the folks in the battleground states who aren't paying attention right now, who are still undecided, they probably don't know who Senator Manchin is, and probably his endorsements not going to mean a whole lot to them. So I think that her -- she's taking a firm stance on abortion, it is a top polling issue for Democrats. So it makes sense to me that she's going to stick firm to that.

KEILAR: Marc, what do you think?

LOTTER: Well, I agree with Meghan. I don't think these endorsements mean one thing or another as much these days as maybe they did in decades gone by. But I do think the one thing it does reinforce is the Trump narrative that Kamala Harris is a radical when she talks about ditching the filibuster to push through her agenda, Joe Manchin, independent, says, no, that's too far for me. So I think a lot of folks might be sensing what Joe Manchin has said in the past. What he's saying today is that I'm not leaving the Democrat Party. The Democrat Party is leaving me.

SCIUTTO: Marc, just I want to ask a question about economics, given that's Trump's message today. He's talking today about reducing, not just extending corporate tax rate cuts, but reducing them to 15 percent. We've heard that he wants to suspend taxes on tips. He's also raised the prospect of suspending taxes on overtime pay. You do the math on that, that's, of course, going to add up, and we know the effect on the budget deficit of the 2017 tax cuts. What is the plan if debt is an issue for Republicans to correct the other side of that equation? How -- how are you going to do both? That would seem to presume massive spending cuts. And I haven't seen any CBO estimate that seems to say you could pay for those kinds of tax cuts and somehow balance the budget?

LOTTER: Well, of course, I don't speak for the former president or his campaign, but what I can tell you is that if we remember following the 2017 Trump tax cuts, federal revenue went up. It didn't go down, it increased. So government does have a spending problem. And my recommendation would be to cut. Cut non-defense, non-critical spending and non, obviously, the discretionary, the non-discretionary spending on Social Security and Medicare, things like that. And everything else, should tighten their budgets, like American households have had to for so long.

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But I would leave it to the President and his team to actually outline what their plan would be. But I know there's a lot of conservatives that would say, great, cut it.

KEILAR: And Meghan, as you see the vice president heading to the border, this is an issue that is Donald Trump's territory. The polls show that. The new polls obviously reinforce that. He outperforms her significantly on this issue. What does she need to do, and can she really move the needle on it?

HAYS: You know, I think she just needs to lay out her plan for the American people to see it's part of the process of folks getting to know her. You know, she -- she does want a -- a more secure border. She wants more funding for that, and also, you know, a pathway for citizenship. That makes sense. So I think that there's just a lot that she can do to lay out. I think it's smart for her to go to the border. I think it's smart for her to just own these issues that are coming at her from the other side. And I think that's part of her leadership style is just dive in head first and get to the bottom of it and try to be able to fix the problem.

SCIUTTO: Yes. Still showing deficits, though, certainly on immigration, the latest CNN poll. Marc Lotter, Meghan Hays, thanks so much to both of you.

Still to come this hour, Israel launches another barrage of deadly air strikes deep inside Lebanon, reaching as far as the suburbs of the capital Beirut. We are following the latest from the region.

Also ahead, Department of Justice, prosecutors are preparing to indict the man accused of trying to assassinate former President Trump. Why it may be or may not be a clear cut case to prove?

KEILAR: And later, how a workout with a Navy SEAL landed nine Tufts University lacrosse players in the hospital. You're watching CNN News Central. We'll be right back.

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KEILAR: Chaotic moments just outside of Lebanon's capital, smoke and debris after Israel launched what it calls a targeted strike today in Beirut's southern suburbs. This attack is part of what the IDF describes as a second wave against Hezbollah targets, which allegedly included command centers and buildings where weapons were stored. At least six people were killed and more than a dozen wounded, according to Lebanon. Hezbollah also launching a barrage of strikes into Israel today. These attacks raising fears around the region. President Joe Biden addressing concerns today at the U.N. General Assembly.

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JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Since October 7th, we've also been determined to prevent a wider war than engulfs the entire region. Hezbollah, unprovoked, joined the October 7th attack launching rockets in Israel. Almost a year later, too many on each side of the Israeli-Lebanon border remain displaced. Full scale war is not in anyone's interest. Even a situation has escalated. A diplomatic solution is still possible. In fact, it remains the only path to lasting security.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: CNN's Nic Robertson is live for us in Tel Aviv. And Nic, Israel's military strikes today, they're saying that these strikes on Beirut killed another Hezbollah commander. What are you learning?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, they've named him as Ibrahim Qubaisi, the commander of the aerial rockets and other missile systems. Now Hezbollah yesterday, when the IDF said that they killed another command and later said that that other commander yesterday had in fact survived and was in full health.

We're yet to hear from Hezbollah about this particular commander that the IDF say was killed. We do know from the -- the Ministry of Health in Lebanon that six people did die on the strike in Beirut and 15 other people were injured. But we're also getting new details that I think begin to give a better sense, and are designed to signal a better sense to Hezbollah about what may be -- what may be coming their way.

The defense minister were visiting -- was visiting troops on an exercise today along the northern border, simulating what a ground offensive into Lebanon may look like, and he told those troops that the Hezbollah that they face now is entirely different to one that they face the week away that the blows and strikes Israel has landed, he said, has struck deeply into their command and control and their ability to fight.

And he said, I am confident that any Hezbollah force you face will be dealt with. It appears to be potentially here, either indicating, or very clearly signaling to the troops that they may be going across the border. Certainly, it carries that sort of visual weight to it. But we've heard as well from the Army Chief of Staff today who said there should be no reprieve for Hezbollah, that the IDF actions must continue at full force, that they're going to speed up operations, and that they must take on all these tasks and action -- actions vigorously across all areas.

So it -- it -- it feels tonight that Israel is on the front foot. It's not clear where that next step is going to be. Certainly, airstrikes are going to be part of the package. But the question, obviously, is being asked, is there going to be a ground incursion as well into Lebanon? We can't answer that question tonight. We do know that the Prime Minister has gone -- has had a briefing with the Army Chief of Staff this evening as well.

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KEILAR: All right. Nic Robertson, live for us from Tel Aviv, thank you so much for that. Jim?

SCIUTTO: All right. Let's speak more about this with CNN political and national security analyst, David Sanger. He also happens to be White House and national security correspondent for The New York Times. David, always good to have you.

DAVID SANGER, CNN POLITCAL & NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Great to be with you, Jim.

SCIUTTO: The President addressed a number of issues in a speech at the U.N. today, one of which is, of course, the widening conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. You -- you write in your most recent piece that this escalation represents not only a widening of the war, but also a widening of the breach between Biden and Netanyahu. I wonder, is Israel escalating on its northern border over the objections of the U.S. President?

SANGER: Well, he didn't say so, and he didn't say actually, in the course of his speech at the U.N. today. In fact, he just sympathized with those on both sides who have been displaced. I think this is less of a problem for them than the attacks inside Gaza, because Gaza was such a densely populated area and we saw so many civilians killed, but of the 500 and some odd people who have been killed in the past 24 hours, certainly a good number of those we assume, are civilians as well.

What struck me, Jim, is just the absence of communication between Netanyahu and Biden in recent times. You know, at the beginning of the conflict last October 7th, regularly through the winter, you would hear the White House give readouts of conversations, phone conversations between the two leaders. The past week, this intense time that has started with the pager and walkie-talkie attacks, the raid in Syria to get at -- at rockets that they believe may have been feeding Hezbollah, now this, we haven't heard of a single conversation.

SCIUTTO: I mean that indicates not just a cooling, but even a breaking of that. I'm not saying that the national relationship Israel and the U.S., but of that personal relationship, and it's interesting, given the series of instances of daylight between the U.S. and Israel over the last year, you think us pushed to give greater care to civilian deaths in Gaza. U.S. pushed to get more humanitarian aid into Gaza. U.S. pushed to avoid adding new demands to the ceasefire and hostage release negotiations, which, as you know, there's even criticism from inside Israel as -- as to Netanyahu position and now the expansion of this war. I mean, is -- is that a short term loss of U.S. influence over Israel, lame duck session, et cetera, election coming? Or is there something longer term going on here?

SANGER: Well, certainly there is a short term element. There may be a longer term difference of calculus in how one goes about defending a country. The Israelis have made a very different calculation than the U.S. would with its own military lawyers about what would be an acceptable number of civilian casualties in return for going after terrorists. Nobody is doubting that the Israelis are trying to go after Hamas or Hezbollah leaders.

But, you know, remember back in the early days of the drone wars, seen long ago, where a drone couldn't fire because target was too close to a playground where there might be kids. That's a very different calculus than saying we're going to go ahead and drop a weapon on this apartment building or on this hospital, because we believe there are several terrorist --

SCIUTTO: It seems that Israel shifted the entire responsibility on the target in effect and with frequent which is not untrue.

SANGER: Sure. SCIUTTO: But the idea hiding behind civilians, et cetera, but that the -- the threshold, the tolerance for civilian deaths, has risen enormously.

SANGER: Dramatically.

SCIUTTO: And that -- that seems to be part of the substance here. Just briefly before we go, what is the level of concern among sources you talk to that this escalation on the northern border breaks out into a full scale war?

SANGER: It's about 50-50. The good news is, so far, Hezbollah has not fired directly at Tel Aviv, for example, they have the weaponry that could go do that. They haven't used it. That's a good sign of restraint. That makes you think that in the next few days, they might be able to negotiate something. The flip side of that is, as you just heard in that report from Nic Robertson, the Israelis make it clear they think this is more a beginning than a middle or an end, and that does suggest it could expand quite dramatically.

SCIUTTO: For that phrase before multi-phase operation.

SANGER: That's right.

SCIUTTO: David Sanger, thanks so much.

And coming up, Florida's charges against the man suspected of attempting to assassinate former President Trump are likely just the beginning. What we know about the potential federal charges against Ryan Routh, that's coming up.

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And we're watching the Caribbean, where a storm is expected to go from this to a major hurricane threatening the Florida Gulf Coast, the latest on the track just ahead.