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IDF Checking to Confirm Hamas Leader Killed. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired October 17, 2024 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[09:33:00]

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: And we are continuing to follow this major breaking news potentially out of Israel. Right now the IDF, the Israeli Defense Force, has put out a statement saying that they have taken out three terrorists, Hamas terrorists, in Gaza. And what they are investigating right now in trying to do an identification on is to see if one of them is the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar.

A lot - a lot going into this and this will have seismic impact in the region and in this war.

Let's continue with our breaking news coverage.

CNN military analyst, Colonel Cedric Leighton, is back with us.

I want to ask you - I want to just read to you some of the reporting we heard from Barak Ravid, CNN contributor and "Axios" reporter with deep - deeply and well-sourced in Israel. He reported, in how this played out, Cedric, which is surprising, is that the IDF and Shin Bet said the incident took place Wednesday night, but also happened during a routine patrol by the IDF, that soldiers encountered three armed men, they exchanged fire and killed them. That this wasn't a huge intelligence operation that had a lot of buildup, lead up, and planning. That this was basically coincidence that this happened. What's your reaction to that?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, Kate, well, war is sometimes full of coincidences like this. Now, you know, putting this in context a bit, we have to remember that a lot of the reasons for Yahya Sinwar to be at that location, if he indeed was at that location and was indeed killed, was the result of what they call shaping operations. So, they've moved the - the Israelis were able to move the Hamas leadership cadre into different areas, kind of box them in.

Now, they were able to escape in certain areas at certain times. They were able to survive, obviously, for a very, very long time.

[09:35:04]

But sometimes these - these moments where a patrol actually finds the guy and takes him out, that is very much, you know, a distinct - a distinct possibility here. And especially given the fact that the Israelis, you know, are a - in this area, they are constantly moving around, trying to find not only the hostages, but also trying to find other Hamas fighters, I - it - you know, if Yahya Sinwar was moving, let's say, from one tunnel to another or one hideout to another of whatever type, I - it was at some point going to be likely that he would encounter in Israeli patrol.

And that, you know, based on Barak's reporting, appears to have happened in this case. So, it's - you know, it's quite astonishing, you know, from one perspective. But we have to remember that it is the result of some of the shaping operations that took place in order to - for the Israelis to potentially get at this - to this point.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, let's go ahead, stay with us, Cedric.

Let's go ahead and speak with Aaron David Miller.

When you hear this news, what are the things that will happen next? Because there are a lot of questions, if it is true that the Israeli military has taken out the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, then what happens next and what needs to be worried about? For example, the hostages and the war itself.

AARON DAVID MILLER, FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR: Yes. Thanks for having me.

You know, this is the Middle East. I don't usually believe in game- changers or inflection points. They have a way of being ground up in the daily grind of this conflict. But this is a big rock dropped in a lake and the ripples are quite extraordinary.

If - if - and Secretary Blinken, I think, is right, Yahya Sinwar was the preeminent Palestinian decision maker responsible for the terrorist surge of October 7th, inflicting a degree of cruelty and pain on Israeli civilians, unprecedent in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Then the question becomes, if he is the pre-eminent decision maker, who - who ultimately will make decisions on so many issues? Who is going to essentially plan Hamas' military strategy. The Israelis killed Hassan Nasrallah. He's dead. Hezbollah survives. What impact will this have on command and control with respect to Hamas' continued insurgency and military campaign?

Second is the issue of hostages. We know from the tragedy, the willful execution of six hostages, that the standing orders were, if Israeli patrols approach, kill your hostages. Does this enhance the prospects of negotiations leading to a deal, or does it injected the kind of uncertainty that is going to jeopardize and fundamentally mean that the 101 hostages, half of whom the Israelis believe are no longer alive, what - what are the prospects now for their release?

Sinwar does have a deputy, at least on paper, Halila Hiya (ph). He's in Qatar. He's been sort of subbing when negotiations, brokered by the Qataris and the Egyptians, were ongoing. Does he matter in this sense? And then to Barak Ravid's point, the reality is, you're not talking a

year of this confrontation. Hamas as a military organization and has been more or less decimated. It could survive as an - as an insurgency, but will this provide the kind of political explanation and justification for Benjamin Netanyahu to begin to seriously consider, to cooperate in a way to try to de-escalate and ultimately end the war in Gaza. These questions, I think, are unanswerable right now. But the ripples are quite clear.

One additional point. You know this - how they found him. I mean this is an example perhaps of hiding in plain sight. You have a tunnel system half the - half the length of the New York - New York subway system. Sinwar may well have been moving from tunnel to tunnel. They killed Mohammed Deif because he's surfaced at a team meeting. And the Israelis were able to target and eliminate him.

So, again, there's a lot of TikTok on this backstory that has yet to be revealed. But it is, I think, a transformative moment in - in the war in Gaza.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Just very quickly, Aaron, you did mention Benjamin Netanyahu in this and the possibility that this gives Netanyahu a chance to declare a victory. And you said you don't know what that would lead to. What might it lead to? I mean, what are the possibilities here?

MILLER: Well, you have a plan on the table, a three-phase negotiating plan. The first phase was a limited release of hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire and a surging of humanitarian assistance into Gaza.

[09:40:06]

Second phase to be negotiated, which would presumably have meant a withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and a release of the remaining hostages. I mean, I suspect if, in fact, you are now talking about a negotiation. If there is a Palestinian decision maker on the Hamas side, now understand that negotiations is the - is the only way out of this if the organization is going to survive in some form you may have an opening. But again, you have inertia and you have the need to continue to look for hostages rather than negotiate.

I - I don't think the Israeli government position is going to immediately default into, let stop shooting and now let's start talking

BOLDUAN: Absolutely. Aaron David Miller, thank you so much for being with us.

If you could stick, please - stick around, please, we are waiting to hear more, if anything, more detail coming from the IDF, coming from - we still - we've heard nothing from the Israeli prime minister. We continue to ask about that as well.

In the meantime, let's bring in chief national security correspondent Alex Marquardt. Alex, you've been working your sources as well. What are you hearing

about this and the significance truly if Sinwar is dead?

ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kate, no doubt massively significant. And just to follow on what Aaron was saying there, I think the real question that not only we are asking, but U.S. officials are asking this morning, because they don't know the answer to it is, to what extent would the death of Sinwar be an off ramp for Netanyahu? You have an organization, a military organization, and a governmental organization in Gaza, that has been severely crippled. Around half of their fighters, according to IDF estimates, have been killed. The senior most echelon, many of them also taken out. Mohammed Deif, the head of the military wing, his deputy Marwan Issa, now possibly the head of the entire organization, Yahya Sinwar. So, does this provide a moment for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to declare victory?

It was hard for U.S. officials to see how Israel could say that they had won the war with Hamas without killing Sinwar. So, they have looked at this potential moment for months as that tipping point, as that moment where Netanyahu would be able to say, look, we have taken them out militarily. And the U.S. agrees with that, that they would not be able to carry out another massacre, another attack like October 7th. They have taken them out in terms of their political and governance structure. They're not the organization they once were. So, can Netanyahu now say the war is over?

And what are the ramifications after that? What are the other dominos after that? Because you have other militant organizations, terrorist organizations, like Hezbollah, the Houthis, who have all said that we are attacking Israel because of what Israel is doing in Gaza. And once that war ends, so too will our efforts against Israel.

Now, the horse is already out of the barn when it comes to Lebanon. Israel is fully - has dived in headfirst into a conflict there. Those operations are fully underway.

But this is a real moment that U.S. officials will look at as a possibility where they will be able to, yet again, tell the Israelis, your war in Gaza is won. It needs to end. We need to come to some kind of ceasefire agreement.

Of course, you know, Aaron and the other guests have been saying that that - those conversations have been dead in the water for quite some time now. This will be a time when U.S. officials will say we can perhaps revive that. Major questions, of course, about the hostages. It's not like with the death of Sinwar that suddenly Hamas is up - going to up and release those hostages. There will certainly still need to be negotiations.

But the Biden administration and, of course, they have not confirmed this yet because they are waiting for the Israeli confirmation, but they will look at this as a real opportunity to end, not just the war in Gaza, but the rapidly expanding conflicts across the region.

SIDNER: All right, thank you so much to you there, Alex Marquardt. And just to wrap up, as we are going to continue to talk about this

big breaking news, the IDF, at this point, is checking to see, as we are speaking, whether or not that one of the three terrorists, they said that they have killed in Gaza is the head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, who was the mastermind of the October 7th attacks.

We will be right back.

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[09:49:10]

BOLDUAN: We are continuing to follow the major - potentially - I keep having to say potentially, but it is breaking news right now.

The IDF saying that they are - they have taken out in - they have taken out three Hamas terrorists. But in doing so, they are now working to identify and using both fingerprint and DNA to try to confirm if one of those people is the leader of Hamas, the decision- maker, Yahya Sinwar, who the IDF - who Israel - who the United States has been looking for, for years, especially since the October 7th terror attack. This would be seismic in the region.

Let's continue our coverage as we wait to hear more from the Israeli government.

CNN's Arlette Saenz is at the White House.

Ripple effects - huge ripple effects, all the way from Israel and Gaza to the United States and the White House.

[09:50:00]

Arlette, have you - what have you heard, if anything, from White House officials so far?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Kate, U.S. officials officially has been quite quiet so far as the IDF has said that they are investigating whether an operation did, in fact, kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar a bit earlier today, but it - or at some point. But if this is confirmed that he has been killed, it would have major implications and ramifications for the Biden administration and their push to try to end this war.

U.S. officials have repeatedly said that they believe Sinwar is one of the main obstacles in place to try to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal. As recently as Tuesday, the White House - a spokesperson, John Kirby, has said that there were no fresh negotiations to end this war, and that part of that is because Sinwar had no interest in having serious discussions at this matter.

But U.S. officials have long viewed the potential death of Sinwar as a major game changer in this conflict. Officials have clung to hope that this could maybe serve as an - if - if he were to be confirmed dead, that this could potentially serve as a path the trying to find an end to this war. One thing that officials and people have been talking about on our air believe is that if Sinwar were to die, perhaps this would be enough of a catalyst for Israel to decide that many of its objectives in this war have been achieved.

Now, of course, even as they are seen arguing that this could potentially be an off-ramp to this war, it's still unclear exactly how all of this will pan out.

I will note, President Biden is currently on a plane to Germany. He is traveling with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, as well as his national security advisor, Jake Sullivan. They were sent to have meetings there relating to Ukraine. But certainly they will be watching these developments in the coming hours very closely as this could have a major effect on the way that this war has been proceeding at this time.

SIDNER: All right, thank you so much, Arlette Saenz.

Let's go now to Barak Ravid, who's been giving us real insight into how this happened from his sources.

Barak, for the Palestinians who have been caught in the middle of this horrific war, you have said that if Sinwar has indeed been killed, if that has what has been determined by the Israeli military, that it could give Prime Minister Netanyahu and off-ramp to get out of this war.

But there is something that is a sticking point here. The 101 hostages who are still in Gaza, whose families have been begging Netanyahu to get them out safely. What might this mean for them?

BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: So, first, about the Palestinians in Gaza. You know, one of the amazing things I saw on social media by Palestinians who are in Gaza right now, on October - on the one year anniversary of October 7th, the amount of curses and, you know, harsh criticism against Sinwar for, you know, leading Gaza to where it is right now was pretty astonishing to watch.

On the hostage deal, two things. First, Prime Minister Netanyahu asked the IDF to inform all the hostage families that no hostages were harmed in this incident. Second, I think that this really can be on the one hand an opportunity get to a hostage deal. On the other hand, there's also a big risk here because Sinwar was the leader that was a centrally - centralist leader. He was in control. Without him, you now have several Hamas commanders and warlords who are holding hostages. And it might be even more complicated now to get a deal.

SIDNER: Can I just quickly follow just about the hostages. Was there, from your sources, any - any kind of evidence that there were hostages somewhere nearby or around this area?

RAVID: No.

SIDNER: OK.

RAVID: No.

BERMAN: Barak, standby, if you - OK.

RAVID: That - what I hear from -

BERMAN: I'm so sorry. I didn't mean to interrupt you.

Barak Ravid, we'll come back to you in just a second.

I want to bring in retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling, who's also with us now.

General, thank you.

There's a war between Israel and Hamas still raging in Gaza. What do you think this would do to that war if this were to be true, that the leader of Hamas were to be dead?

LT. GEN. MARK HERTLING (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, listening to some of the commentary, John, that's a - that's a perfect question to ask because there's already, you know, a lot of heavy breathing about the potential for this bringing the war to an end, the United States seeing that potential for Israel to doing certain things because of the killing - the potential killing of Sinwar.

But here's what I would suggest. You know, it's great if the leader of an organization is killed. It's great when the command and control structure is dismantled. But that doesn't mean the end of the terrorist organization. If - if I can say, if anyone has learned that, the United States has.

[09:55:05]

The whack-a-mole of getting terrorist out of the network is important because it disrupts the organization and causes dysfunction, which this may will. But I can't tell you the number of times, John, how many times, when I was in combat and we would strike a headquarters and kill a terrorist leader and we'd say, hey, that's the beginning of the end, and then the next day there'd be a car bomb or more missile strikes. So, I'm suggesting that, yes, this is a big deal, it's significant if Sinwar was killed, but it's not - it may not be the end.

And the other thing, you know, the United States may see this as a next step in terms of a peace deal or getting this - the hostages out. The opposite may be seen by Israel. Hey, we've got our feet on the throat. We've killed a lot of tourist leaders. We've destroyed much of Hamas within the Gaza Strip. Let's continue the fight so they are no longer in existence. So you have those kind of competing questions going on whenever some - a major leader like this, or Osama bin Laden, or someone like that is killed. But the organization lives on. And I think we'll see some of that within Gaza.

BERMAN: All right, General Hertling, thank you very much.

BOLDUAN: All right, just to recap the breaking news we've been following all throughout this hour, we are waiting to hear from the IDF, waiting to hear from the Israeli government as the IDF announced earlier, just about one hour ago, that they have taken out two, three terrorists, Hamas terrorists, in Gaza, and are working now to, through DNA and fingerprint identification, to see - to confirm whether or not one of those killed was the leader - the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar. Standing by this - as we continue to say, and as we just heard from Mark Hertling, would have a seismic impact in the region, but would also bring about so many questions of what does this mean for the war that Israel is between - Israel and Hamas. What does this mean for the hostage families who are waiting to hear about the lives of their loved ones. And what does this mean for the people in - people of Gaza? So many questions.

We continue to follow this major breaking good news on CNN after this.

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