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Brianne Pfannenstiel is Interviewed about Iowa Polls; Sen. Eric Schmitt (D-MO) is Interviewed about the Presidential Election; Harris Spends Day Crisscrossing Pennsylvania; One Day from Election Day; Brands Tone Down Election Campaigns. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired November 04, 2024 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:33:57]

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Stunning new polling out of Iowa has former President Trump fuming according to campaign insider. "The Des Moines Registers" poll shows Harris up three points among likely voters. Surprising because this is a seven-point swing towards the vice president compared to September. Still, the polling numbers are well within the margin of error. So, there is no clear leader there.

The same poll, by the way, correctly predicted Trump's victories in Iowa in the last two elections, within 2.5 points of the final margin of victory.

Joining me now is Brianne Pfannenstiel, chief politics reporter for "The Des Moines Register" and senior national campaign correspondent for "USA Today."

All right, we're going to get into this poll a bit. What did you see in the details of this poll that surprise you?

BRIANNE PFANNENSTIEL, CHIEF POLITICS REPORTER, "THE DES MOINES REGISTER": Well, I think everything about this poll surprised us. You know, we got the numbers back and this is a state that voted for Donald Trump twice in 2016 and 2020 by really healthy margins, eight points and nine points in both of those years. And so to see Harris really even close, let alone leading, it's a jaw-dropper.

And so that - that top line really struck us.

[08:35:01]

But certainly, when you dig into it, there's a lot happening below the surface that kind of explains her rise.

You know, in September, when we polled, we had her within four points of Donald Trump. And even - even that was quite shocking. But between September and now, we've seen independents swing away from Donald Trump and toward Kamala Harris. This is a group that had been supporting Donald Trump the entirety of this year through our polling. And so to see them shift is really notable. And that's driven not - not just by independents, but particularly independent women. Independent women now favor Kamala Harris by a 28- point margin. And so that's really interesting to see. And something that I think we'll be looking at kind of across the country in states that look like Iowa. What are these independent white women doing?

SIDNER: The famed pollster, Jan Selzer (ph), said it - it was not just voters switching candidates, but really new people deciding to come off the couch and get out there and vote.

Is there any sense that Iowa could be a harbinger for other states?

PFANNENSTIEL: I think that's what Democrats are hoping, you know. And to put this all in context, in June, when Joe Biden was the presumed nominee, this same poll had Donald Trump winning by 18 percentage points over Joe Biden. And so that - that growth in the electorate that she's talking about is - is what happened after we saw the nominee - the nomination switch over to Kamala Harris. We saw people come out. We saw more people indicating to us through our polling that they planned to vote. And so I think you're looking - if you're a Democrat, you're really looking at this and hoping that it means something for states like Michigan and Wisconsin, that are - you know, appear to be deadlocked battleground states, that in this final week some of these - these voters could be breaking for Kamala Harris in the same way that we're seeing reflected in this Iowa poll.

SIDNER: I was in your town, and I was in Detroit in 2020 where people were outside the count. Trump supporters banging on the windows, yelling, trying to disrupt what was happening, accusing election workers of cheating, which they were not.

Do you see some of that same sentiment bubbling up around there this time?

PFANNENSTIEL: Well, here in Des Moines, you know, the vote went really well for Donald Trump last time and so we did not see some of that - that anger and that - those protests that we saw in some other states. But certainly, if this does end up being close, we'll be watching very carefully how it's counted and how people react.

We saw Donald Trump already on the campaign trail kind of cast out over this poll, say that - that it was manufactured to suppress votes. And so his rhetoric around elections in other states. We've seen what that's - what that's looked like. And so we'll wait and we'll see how that looks in Iowa.

SIDNER: His rhetoric has been proven false time and again, but still affecting a lot of voters.

Brianne Pfannenstiel, thank you so much for breaking that down for us. A really interesting poll from "The Des Moines Register." Appreciate it.

Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: And joining us right now is Republican senator from Missouri, also a Trump campaign surrogate, Senator Eric Schmitt.

Senator, thank you for coming in.

Does this poll out of Iowa concern you about the direction of the race more broadly?

SEN. ERIC SCHMITT (R-MO): It doesn't. and I actually hope you have that former guest, or that - that most recent guest on after the election so she can explain why that poll was off by so much.

President Trump - look, I'm in Missouri. Iowa is our neighbor to the north. President Trump is going to win by a huge margin in Missouri, and in places like Iowa. And I think he's doing particularly well in those battleground states, Michigan, Wisconsin. I was up there this weekend. Because people feel like this economy has left them behind. And that's really what this race is all about. It's the center of gravity, it always has been, is how people's lives have been affected. Are they better off now than they were four years ago? And so I think when people go vote, with the only poll that actually matters, is tomorrow, that President Trump's going to win.

And I also think, Kate, that this coalition that's been broadening under President Trump, whether it's rank and file labor leaders, independent-minded voters, black men, young voters, are all coming behind this movement because they've had enough of what they've seen over the last four years.

BOLDUAN: That message of a change from the last four years, or the message of focusing on the economy is definitely something I have heard you focusing on. It's definitely something that we have seen in polls as working with voters in terms of a message from Donald Trump. It's definitely something that the Trump campaign is trying - wants to be the message in the forefront.

The campaigning yesterday, the former president said, as part of his message, when he was speaking to voters, was that he did not mind if someone would shoot at news crews and reporters covering the event.

Let me play this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news, right? And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news.

[08:40:02]

And I don't mind that so much because - I don't mind.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Senator, are you OK with that aspect of the messages in this final - in these final days? SCHMITT: Well, I just think it's - it's interesting that the focus you

guys - every day you try to create some sort of faux outrage. And I understand why, because Kamala Harris has caused - has called President Trump a fascist. Joe Biden has called half of America garbage, and they have nothing to run on. And so every day we find something you guys try to blow up into something that, quite frankly, no one takes literally. I can't believe you spend this much time on it on the air. But I know why, because President Trump has the momentum in this race.

It's a change election cycle. President Trump, by a two to one margin, is viewed as the change candidate. That's a hard reality for some people to accept, but that's what people are focused on, not these clips that you seem to air every day.

BOLDUAN: Well, this - this is - but I - I haven't aired this every day because this is a new something he just said yesterday.

Did - but you - you don't - you don't - you think he was joking? That's what - that's what you think on that?

SCHMITT: I mean, what do you think? Actually, what do you think?

BOLDUAN: I'll tell you - no, I will tell you what Scott Jennings, a long-time -

SCHMITT: Do you really -

BOLDUAN: Wait, one second, senator. Scott Jennings, a long-time Republican, was just sitting right next to me and he says he is not happy with - he does not want to hear that rhetoric. He does not like that rhetoric. And he doesn't want to hear the president - the former president say that because -

SCHMITT: Listen - sure.

BOLDUAN: So many people - Donald Trump is - was the - was the target of two attempted assassinations.

SCHMITT: Yes.

BOLDUAN: If anyone should understand that, you know, words matter, Donald Trump should, especially when it comes to heated rhetoric.

SCHMITT: Well, it - I'm trying to tell you the -

BOLDUAN: And so that's why I'm just asking you, regardless -

SCHMITT: Yes.

BOLDUAN: Regardless of whether you - and we talked about what the priority and the - the messaging priority for the campaign is the economy, as we just discussed, as part of a message that the former president is putting out there. I'm just asking you, if you are OK - are you OK with him saying that - would you like him to continue to repeat that today as part of his final message? SCHMITT: It's really interesting. So, President Trump's - he's had two

attempts on his life and you don't really talk about that anymore. And if it were Kamala Harris, NBC nightly -

BOLDUAN: We talk about it all the time.

SCHMITT: NBC - NBC "Nightly News" would be camped out in Butler. But it's not convenient to humanize President Trump. I've spent a lot of time with him this weekend. His message is very clear. Kamala Harris broke it. He's going to fix it.

So, again, you can pull up all the clips - and - and this has been over four years, or eight years now, the idea to try to marginalize him and his supporters has been ongoing. But I'm telling you, what has happened.

And, by the way, to try to throw him in jail for the rest of his life and to censor Americans, that is the record of the Democrats in this cycle, that they're running away from.

And so, the American people have had enough. They want peace and prosperity around the world. They want a secure border. And they want an economy that works for them. That is what people are going to vote on. So, again, every time you try to pull up a clip like this to create outrage, people see through it right now. They really do.

BOLDUAN: It's - it's not creating outrage, it's just asking you if you agree with it. That's all I'm asking.

SCHMITT: Yes. I think what this election - of course not. I mean, good - I mean, this is insane. Like, you - you continue to try to get people -

BOLDUAN: No!

SCHMITT: That - that President Trump is talking about things that matter to real people.

BOLDUAN: It's a simple question that if you -

SCHMITT: So, again, you're going to do this for another 24 hours and the American people are going to have a say here, which is -

BOLDUAN: (INAUDIBLE).

SCHMITT: They want a better life for their family. That's what this election's about. Not, sort of, your news of the day to try to create outrage.

BOLDUAN: And people also want safety and security, which could also include journalists.

SCHMITT: Yes. Well, guess what, people aren't safe in their own communities because we have 15 million people here illegally. Fentanyl streaming across our border. You have gangs, Venezuelan gangs, controlling apartment complexes in the United States of America. This country is less safe. The FBI crime statistics indicate that too. Violent crime is way up.

So, again, as people actually reflect on what's happened over the last four years, as compared to what happened when President Trump was in office, the choice is very clear.

BOLDUAN: Definitely a choice.

Senator Eric Schmitt, thanks for coming on.

John.

SCHMITT: Anytime.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, so with one day left to submit endorsements, we have new reporting on why businesses have largely chosen to stay quiet this election cycle.

And remembering music icon Quincy Jones. His unbelievable life and library of work, from Count Basie to Michael Jackson, from "The Fresh Prince" to Frank Sinatra.

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[08:48:41]

BERMAN: All right, this morning, just one day left, and Vice President Harris getting ready to make five stops in Pennsylvania. That gives you a sense of just how important she thinks the commonwealth is. The final stop will be in Philadelphia, surrounded by a bunch of celebrity supporters.

We're going to go kind of in the middle of the itinerary. CNN's Eva McKend is in Allentown.

Eva, what do you expect today? What signs could you see from what she did over the weekend?

EVA MCKEND, CNN NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, John, what we're seeing from the vice president is her consolidating coalition as she lands on this closing message of unity, bringing the country together.

She begins today with some good old-fashioned door knocking over in Scranton, Pennsylvania. That, of course, is the hometown of President Joe Biden.

She then heads here to Allentown. Meulenberg College, where we are right now, it is the home to a heavy Latino population. The campaign noting more than 30,000 Puerto Rican in Allentown.

She then goes to Reading, Pennsylvania, where she will be joined by Governor Josh Shapiro, as well as Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez.

She then goes to Pittsburgh. And then ends the day with a star-studded rally in Philadelphia with the likes of The Roots, Jazmine Sullivan, Oprah Winfrey.

And what she's telling her supporters is that this is not the time to sit on the sidelines.

[08:50:03]

They don't want to look back and feel like they could have done more, that they want to leave it all on the table.

So, a heavy emphasis on that. She didn't even mention the former president by name yesterday when she was campaigning because at this point his comments, his history has been well litigated. And she, instead, is making an affirmative case for herself and talking about all of the people across the country that she's trying to bring together in these closing hours.

John.

BERMAN: All right, Eva McKend in Allentown.

Eva, thank you very much.

Sara.

SIDNER: We've got plenty to discuss.

Joining me now, CNN political commentator and Republican strategist Shermichael Singleton, and CNN political commentator and Democratic strategist Maria Cardona.

Thank you both for being here.

I'm going, not to Philadelphia, not to Pennsylvania right now, I'm going to Iowa, if you don't mind. Come on with me. Let's Jump in the car. Going to Iowa where this new poll came out. This poll has Donald Trump hot. It's got Harris hopeful.

I do want to break down a little bit. Three points is within the margin of error, clearly.

MARIA CARDONA, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes. Right.

SHERMICHAEL SINGLETON, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes.

SIDNER: But, according to the poll, the support among independents and particularly independent women in Iowa is a big number. Harris beating Trump by 28 percentage points. How worried are you about Iowa and that this may tell you something about other states?

SINGLETON: Well, that's the biggest worry. Maria and I were talking about that backstage. I mean you're looking at independent-leaning women. You're also looking at women 65 and older, where Donald Trump did pretty well in '16. Pretty strong with that group in 2020. And there appears to be maybe a one or two percentage deference there.

Now, people may say, well, Shermichael, what in the heck is the difference from 1 to 2 percent? Well, when you're looking at a margin of races within the margin of error, that 1 to 2 percent makes a big difference.

There's been this argument from a lot of Republicans, including myself, that the vice president has a deficiency with men. But I think the calculation from the Harris campaign is, well, we can increase our turnout marginally with younger women, independent-leaning women, maybe even - independent right-leaning women that will make up for that deficit. And I think that is an argument worth entertaining.

So, the question becomes from the Trump campaign's perspective, I would argue here, Sara, is, can you turn out those low propensity voters with those outside grouping that have essentially been tasked with doing that job? It worries me how effectively they're doing that job.

SIDNER: Maria, I'm curious if you think that some of this isn't just about, you know, the reproductive rights issue but about the words that have been coming out of Donald Trump's mouth over this past week.

CARDONA: Absolutely. I think it's both, Sara. And what's so interesting about this poll is that it demonstrates something that I have been saying for a very long time. Ever since the Dobbs decision, and that is that the polls that we have seen are - that we've been seeing are not measuring correctly, the energy, the emotion behind the fact that women are now in a position where many of them are raising their daughters in a country that has - where their daughters have less rights than they did. That is just not something that can be taken lightly. And so many people have missed it as like, oh, well, yes, but, you know, the economy is so much more important to women.

And I have talked to so many women who say, yes, Maria, the economy is important to me, but the economy's coming back, gas prices are going down, prices at the grocery store are going down. My rights, when I go into that ballot box, I need to vote for my rights. I need to vote for a country where my daughter is going to be able to make decisions about her own body. And what this poll signifies to me is that that is an emotion that is going to be relevant I think across the country.

SINGLETON: It's a compelling message.

CARDONA: Now, I will say that the Harris campaign is not paying attention to this poll. And I think that's really smart because they have to still have their eye on the prize. It's all about the battleground states. That's why you see the vice president in Pennsylvania.

But just one last thing. You talked about the gender gap.

SINGLETON: Yes.

CARDONA: And it is massive. But while the Harris campaign has been from the very beginning making a big issue about reproductive rights and rights and freedoms in general, they are not taking for granted the male vote, which is why you have seen the vice president put out an agenda for black men, an agenda for Latino men. SINGLETON: Black men. I saw that.

SIDNER: Yes.

CARDONA: She is focused - and this is, I think, the closing argument, which is really smart, on the contrast between somebody who works for himself and focuses on an enemy list - an enemies list, versus somebody who wants to be the president for everyone, who wants to bring everyone together.

SIDNER: I am curious what you think, Shermichael, about Trump's final message, because we saw it sort of unfolded with a lot of different things.

SINGLETON: Yes.

SIDNER: Where he's talking about, you know, shooting through the, you know, fake media and he's still sowing those seeds of, this election is going to be stolen.

[08:55:05]

What do you make of that? What does that do to potential voters and what are your concerns there?

SINGLETON: There are still people out there who have yet to vote, who will vote on Election Day.

SIDNER: Right.

SINGLETON: A significant number of them. And perhaps you have some who are sort of sitting on the fence. Maybe they like Donald Trump because of the economy - his stance on the economy, I should say, or perhaps they like his stance on immigration, but they're a bit worried about some of his statements, or behavior, characteristics. You don't want to run the risk of those voters staying home because you want to grow your potential voter pool. You also don't want to run the risk of them buying into a message of your opponent, that being the Harris campaign, as Maria just stated, the difference between - that contrasting difference. It's not good.

He's really, really strong on the economy and immigration. "The Times"/Siena poll that came out I think yesterday, or a day or two, 25 percent of battleground state voters say it's a top issue for them. It was the number one issue. Followed by abortion, which the vice president has done an effective drive articulating that message. Fifteen percent say immigration.

When you go down and ask, if the election were today who would you vote for, 39 percent of battleground state voters said Harris, 44 percent said Trump. That's a 16-point difference. So, if I'm looking at that data, I'm saying to the former president, these are your strengths. We shouldn't be talking about anything else but where you're strong, because you do not want to run the risk of giving the vice president an opportunity to point to the things that people say, I just don't like. Talk about the things I do like. A more disciplined candidates would do those things.

And so my message to the former president with, what, 30 hours - 31 hours remaining would be, stick to the message. Listen to Chris LaCivita, listen to Susie. They're talented people. They're experienced. They have won campaigns. They know what they're talking about. Anytime you spend talking about anything else, you run the risk of voters sitting out, or, even worse, going over to the other side.

SIDNER: I just - I just want to quickly do this, just because we need a little bit of levity.

SINGLETON: Please. Please.

SIDNER: Although it has made Donald Trump mad. He said he hates "SNL." He put that out on Twitter.

But I wanted to show this clip of Kamala Harris on "SNL" on Saturday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MAYA RUDOLPH, COMEDIAN, "SNL": Kamala, take my palm-ala. The American people want to stop the chaos.

KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S. (D) AND U.S. PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And end the dram-ala.

RUDOLPH: With a cool new step-mamala. Kick back in our pajam-alas and watch a rom-kamala (ph).

HARRIS: Like Legally Blonde-ala.

RUDOLPH: And start decorating for Christmas. Fa-la-la-la-la. Because what do we always say -

RUDOLPH AND HARRIS: Keep calm-ala and carry-on-ala.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: OK.

CARDONA: Yes.

SIDNER: It - you're - it was funny.

SINGLETON: It was funny. I mean a lot - partisanship aside, it was funny.

CARDONA: Yes.

SIDNER: Just quickly, one word answer, fair or not, yes or no, because that's what they're going after her for and "SNL."

SINGLETON: It's a joke. This process has been stressful as hell, Sara. Let's all just laugh a little bit. Let's just laugh a little bit.

CARDONA: No, that's - that's - that's more than one word. That's more than one word.

But I think what this represents is what you were saying before. People are sick of the drama. People are sick of trying - of waking up and having their stomach in knots wondering if the republic is still standing. And that is, I think, a very smart message from the Kamala Harris campaign about turning the page, about finding a new way forward. Because that really speaks to people angst.

SIDNER: What you're saying is no more dram-ala? Is that what -

CARDONA: No more dram-ala. And keep calm-ala.

SINGLETON: But, you know what, what, Maria, here - but, Maria, quickly here, they're also sick of a terrible economy.

SIDNER: Sure.

SINGLETON: They're also sick of not having a secure border. Which goes to my point, the former president needs to be driving on that message.

CARDONA: But the -

SIDNER: I'm stopping it here. I said one word and now we're eighteen words.

SINGLETON: Sorry, Sara.

CARDONA: We'll keep going.

SIDNER: John's les hurt because he's been waiting for us.

Maria Cardona, Shermichael Singleton, it is always such a pleasure to have you here.

CARDONA: Thank you, Sara.

SINGLETON: Thanks, Sara.

SIDNER: At least we got to have one laugh before this (INAUDIBLE).

CARDONA: You got to.

SINGLETON: From (ph) my favorite Maria here.

SIDNER: John.

BERMAN: Maria-la and Shermichael-la, thank you.

So, this morning as both Vice President Harris and Donald Trump hold their final campaign events, corporate America remains pretty quite. This is a shift from 2020 when they were a lot more public about their stances, at least on voting.

With us now, CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich.

So, what's going on here, Vanessa? VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Yes,

there's really no incentive for big brands to get involved in politics these days, no matter how non-partisan it is. In 2020 you had brands like Nike, Absolute Vodka, Under Armour putting out really splashy star-studded campaigns with Lebron James, Naomi Osaka, promoting get out the vote. But as one marketing expert told me, there's really no upside in this divisive election because you're probably going to piss off some of your consumer base. And right now about 54 percent of Americans believe that they have boycotted brands because of the brand's stance on politics.

[09:00:00]

Even if it's not even voting - endorsing a candidate, whether it's just getting out and talking about politics in general.

Now, Nike, for their part, says that they are giving their