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Israeli Security Cabinet Meeting To Vote On Hezbollah Ceasefire Deal; Fighting Intensifies Ahead Of Potential Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired November 26, 2024 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[13:00:39]

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is CNN breaking news.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN ANCHOR: We are starting with developments in the Middle East. Right now the Israeli security cabinet is weighing a potential ceasefire deal with Hezbollah and we are expecting to hear from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at any moment.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN ANCHOR: This vote is happening as the fighting intensifies on both sides. Israel unleashing a punishing barrage this morning on the greater Beirut area, striking with about 20 bombs in just two minutes. CNN's Nic Robertson is monitoring the situation live in Jerusalem for us.

Nic, a lot of major developments. What more are you hearing?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLAMATIC EDITOR: Yes, right now the security cabinet is meeting. There are 11 people in that cabinet. It is a simple majority that will carry the vote. The prime minister's office says he is confident. He met with his party members before going into the cabinet.

There are six of them. And the prime minister's office says the prime minister has all that support that would indicate already he has enough votes to carry this to agree to the ceasefire. The country here is waiting for the prime minister to speak to the nation. Through the day, however, the IDF has been keeping up a very strong, one of its strongest barrages of strikes in many areas in Lebanon, but in particular the capital. Twenty targets struck in the space of 120 seconds, according to the IDF, 180 targets struck throughout the day.

And at one point, targets struck in the center of Beirut where none have been hit before. So really taking this right down to the wire. And I have to say, speaking to sources in Lebanon, absolute laser focused scrutiny on what the Israeli cabinet is going to decide and the belief on their side that once Israel goes along with this, once the cabinet votes in favor, if they do for this cease fire, then Hezbollah is going to fall into line pretty quickly.

KEILAR: Nic Robertson, thank you very much. We'll continue to watch this. And let's turn now to CNN Chief National Security Correspondent Alex Marquardt. A lot of pressure, Alex, here to get this deal done coming from the U.S. coming from others who are involved here. How was this able to come together?

ALEX MARQUARDT, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: This has been something that has been in the works for a very long time. There's a senior White House official named Amos Hochstein who has been leading the charge for the Biden administration. He's been going back and forth to the region for more than a year between Tel Aviv and Beirut, trying to get this deal done. And it has been close for quite some time.

The reason that it has not gotten across the finish line before this is because Hezbollah has always tied their fight against Israel to what's going on in Gaza. And since there has been no end to the war in Gaza, they have continued to fight with Israel. Israel, of course, at some point in the past few weeks, said, enough is enough, we're going to go in on the ground, we're going to start pummeling them. And that eventually got Hezbollah to agree to basically back off and say, OK, no matter what's happening in Gaza, even if that war is continuing, we want a ceasefire.

So, I think the big question is, why now? Because Hezbollah has really been decimated, but not completely dismantled. They will survive this. They will be injured. They lost their longtime leader.

They've lost the top echelons of the different parts of the organization. They've lost a huge part of their arsenal. But they will rebuild. I think certainly Israel has bombed Hezbollah into submission to a place where they will agree to a ceasefire.

If this deal goes through, Israel will have achieved its goals in that Hezbollah will pull back from the border. They will no longer have a presence there in southern Lebanon. Hopefully, those Israeli citizens in the northern part of the country will be able to go back to their homes.

Israel is certainly bending to American pressure because there is more that Israel could do, back to my point about further dismantling of Hezbollah. And that's why we are seeing some anger in Israel right now. Protests as we speak outside the Defense Ministry. There are a number of Israeli cabinet members who don't want this war to end. Israeli citizens from the north, according to our Jeremy Diamond. He' reporting that those civilians don't feel like enough has been done.

But certainly Prime Minister Netanyahu has felt that pressure from the Biden administration. I think a very important point to make also is that we understand that this is not something that Donald Trump wants to deal with early on in his administration. So he is content for the Biden administration to get this done. And we believe that there -- certainly Netanyahu is feeling that it would be in his interest for his relationship with Trump if he were to get this done now. So everybody has an interest in getting this cease fire deal done.

[13:05:28] SANCHEZ: And again, we are set to hear from Benjamin Netanyahu in just moments. We will bring that to you as he speaks. Alex Marquardt, thank you so much for the update.

Let's dig deeper now with CNN Global Affairs Analyst, former Defense Secretary under President Trump, Mark Esper. He also serves on the board or as a strategic adviser for a handful of aerospace and defense related companies.

Secretary, thank you so much for being with us. What do you think would be the practical implications of both sides agreeing to a cease fire at this time? How do you think these sides would use those 60 days?

MARK ESPER, FORMER DEFENSE SECRETARY UNDER PRESIDENT TRUMP: Sure, Boris, good afternoon. Look, it's a good question. Go back to why we are in this position. Hezbollah has been attacking Israel nearly daily since October 7th of last year, shooting in rockets and missiles into northern Israel. And that is what has displaced around 70,000 or so Israelis from their homes and communities.

And so the push has been to get them back to the north, get those civilians -- get peace, get those civilians back to north. So under this deal, they would be able to do that to return those Israelis back to northern Israel. Of course, they were able to do this because they've decimated Hezbollah's leadership over the past couple months. They've dismantled a good chunk of their missile and rocket capacity. And so Hezbollah is on the ropes out.

Now, what do they get out of this? Why is this happening now? Alex talked a little bit about it, but I think it's important to note that after the last conflict a few years ago between Israel and Hezbollah, Hezbollah came out of that losing the support of the Lebanese population. And so that's another factor once again because now you have over 1 million Lebanese displaced across the country and Hezbollah cannot afford to lose their support.

On the other hand, Iran fears losing its biggest, most capable or what used to be its most capable proxy in the Middle East, Hezbollah. So they want to cease fire as well so that Hezbollah can rebuild itself, repair itself and be ready to go at the future sometime. So there's benefits from Hezbollah for taking a 60-day ceasefire. There's benefits for Israel for doing the same. We just got to see how this plays out.

Last thing, it's important to note that again, if this ceasefire happens today, it expires in 60 days, which is just a few days after President Trump will be confirmed once again or inaugurated as President of the United States.

SANCHEZ: A significant point there. How do you imagine the incoming Trump administration might see this deal through if it expires and there are still hostilities between these two sides?

ESPER: Well, I do think President Trump wants to see a reduction in conflict around the world, beginning with Ukraine and the Middle East as well. But he's going to be a big supporter of the Israelis. And I think he rightly recognizes at the end of the day, you have to deal with Iran. And he's already come in, or at least some of his surrogates have talked about returning to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran, beginning with economic sanctions on their oil exports. And that would have a debilitating effect on the Iranian economy that's already suffering right now.

And of course, strategically, Iran is very vulnerable after the October strikes by Israel in which they took down Iran's air defense system. So, Iran is in a very vulnerable position right now, and I think it should tread carefully, which is why I'm kind of a little stunned by the recent comments coming out of Tehran about a possible counterattack going back to Israel's attacks last month.

SANCHEZ: Yes, were still waiting to see what kind of response Tehran would have to that. I do wonder, as were watching video a moment ago of this morning in Beirut, what do you think the strategy was behind the IDF bombing that area 20 times in a span of two minutes, just before the cabinet, the Security Cabinet, was meeting to vote on this potential cease fire deal.

ESPER: You know, part of that is to punctuate the point that they could continue to and are willing to devastate Israel, particularly Beirut, as much as they want to if Hezbollah does not sign on to this deal. So that's just a statement of their commitment, a statement of their capability.

But look, Boris, the tough thing here is going to be really the enforcement, the implementation of the agreement. If you go back to U.N. Resolution 1701, that was signed in 2006 after the end of the last major conflict, that's the basis of this current one. But what happened back then was it was never implemented. Hezbollah never withdrew from southern Lebanon. Israel withdrew from Lebanon, but Hezbollah did not.

So, the key part here, if this happens, will be the implementation is will Hezbollah stay north of Litani River, about 18 miles north of the Israel Lebanon border, and will U.N. peacekeepers and Lebanese armed forces be able to keep them out. That's why there's been these murmurings of Israel wanting to have the right to strike into Lebanon if they see Hezbollah returning, which is not a reasonable request given what they've experienced.

[13:10:20]

SANCHEZ: And Secretary, more broadly, do you think that this imminent ceasefire deal means anything for a potential ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas?

ESPER: Well, I think if Hamas had any expectation that Hezbollah at some point was going to enter the conflict more forcefully to put pressure on Israel's northern flank to encourage an agreement in the south, in Gaza, then I think that's certainly out the window. And of course, Hamas faces the same challenge that Hezbollah does, and that is a weakened Iran, which is less able to weigh its influence, weigh its -- push itself around the region. So they're facing that. At the same time, they've lost a good chunk of their leadership as well.

So the question will be is what happens? What's the answer? How --

SANCHEZ: Secretary, I'm sorry, I have to interrupt you because Benjamin Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, is now addressing the nation. Let's listen.

BENAJAMIN NETANYAHU, PRIME MINISTER OF ISRAEL (through translator): All of its goals, including until we bring all of the residents of the north home. I'd like to tell you it will happen exactly as it happened in the south.

My friends, residents of the north, I'm proud of you. I'm proud of your way you stand. And I'm responsible to your future, to your recovery of your settlements. Till now, due to the heroic of IDF, the police, the Shin Bet and the Mossad, we reached huge achievements in all fronts. And it causes the world to be in awe of our power.

And in the Middle East, first and foremost in Iran, we destroyed most a lot of their aerial abilities, the capability of her missiles and her nuclear program. I'm determined to do anything we need in order to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear weapon. This threat is always at top of my priorities. And moreover, today, when you hear the declarations of Iran's leaders in order to be equipped with nuclear power, removing this threat is the most important task in order to promise our future. We dismantle Hamas battalions, we destroyed Sinwar death (ph) and other seniors, and we brought back 194 of our hostages.

And we are determined to bring the rest, 101 hostages, to bring back the torture of their families. And we are assured to complete the destruction of Hamas. In Judah and Samaria, we are killing hundreds of terrorists and infrastructure of terrorists. And we are acting in all fronts of terror. In Yemen, we attacked the Houthis, something that the international community didn't do.

In Iraq, we prevented many attacks of UAVs. In Syria, we're breaking the trials, the attempts of arming Lebanon from Iran and Hezbollah. Assad needs to know that he's playing with fire. And now in Lebanon, Hezbollah chose to attack us on the 8th of October. It's been a year.

It's no longer the same Hezbollah. We brought it back dozens of years. We destroyed Nasrallah, the rest of the senior personnel, its missiles and rockets, thousands of terrorists, and destroyed the underground infrastructure of terror that's been built there for years. We attacked strategic goals around Lebanon. And we make dozens of buildings falling in Beirut and the ground is trembling there.

[13:15:03]

Citizens of Israel, three months ago it would have been sound science fiction, but it isn't. We did it. And I'd like to say to you in any given moment that this war, I'm looking at all fronts. This is how I acted in the beginning of the war to focus on Gaza and not opening a new front in Lebanon. This is how I acted a few months ago where conditions were right to focus on Hezbollah. This is how I acted when the Iran missiles attack happened when we chose specifically when to retaliate and how. And this is how I act today. I look at all fronts and I see the full picture. And I'm determined to give our soldiers, our hero soldiers, all measurements, all measures to keep save their lives and bring back victory. This is why I will bring an agreement for the cabinet.

The duration of it will depend on what happens in Lebanon. We keep a whole freedom for military freedom. And if Hezbollah will rearm itself, we will attack. And if it'll fire missiles, if he puts tracks with missiles, we will attack. And I know it's been said that once we agree on ceasefire, we won't be able to do it.

But I remind you, this is exactly what we've been told when we have a ceasefire with Gaza in order to bring back hostages, our hostages. We -- they said we will not be back fighting. And we did. Big time. They tell me Hezbollah will keep quiet for a year or two and then they will attack. But Hezbollah will finish the ceasefire in order to shoot at us in the future.

And we will react for any such thing. I know that many do not believe we will do it, but many didn't believe we will go on the ground in Gaza and Shifa and Khan Younis, and we did. And in front of all the international pressure to enter Rafah in Philadelphia axis, not only we entered, we attacked. And many didn't believe we attacked in Lebanon and we attacked there as well in huge power and sophistication that the world that surprised the world. And after all of that, maybe it's better to believe in our way, in our determination and our committee to victory.

So why doing ceasefire now? There are three main reasons. First, focusing on the Iranian threat, and I will not expand on that. Two, refreshing the military forces and our equipment. And I'm telling you as it's not a secret, there's been delays in bringing more weapons and arms. And this delay will finish soon.

We will have advance weaponry that will give us more power to finish our goals. And the third reason for ceasefire, detaching the front of the war from Hamas, from the second war that Hamas pressured Hezbollah to act with him. And now Hezbollah is no longer and it will help us with the task of bringing our hostages back. We were attacked in seven fronts and we retaliated. We are changing the face of the Middle East.

All of this we are doing due to our heroic soldiers and your stand in managing this war. Mindfully, I said many times, a good agreement is such that you can make it a reality. And with God's help, we will make the north flourish again until the victory.

[13:20:25]

KEILAR: All right, we're hearing there from Ben -- from Prime - we're hearing there from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He started by reviewing some of the achievements of Israel when it comes to the war in Gaza, dismantling Hamas battalions, he said, and also taking out Yahya Sinwar and then with Hezbollah, taking out Hassan Nasrallah. And bringing back Hezbollah, he said, dozens of years, destroying their missiles, underground infrastructure of terror. And then he made the case for why they're agreeing to a ceasefire, really to, he said, focus on the Iranian threat, and I will not expand on that, but really to focus as well on the war in Gaza and dismantling Hamas now.

SANCHEZ: Earlier in his remarks, he did sort of expand on the Iranian threat, saying that he would do anything necessary to keep Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. He said that is the most important task for the promise of Israel's future. He also said something notable, talking about his eyes being on all fronts at all times since October 7th. He not only listed Lebanon, but also Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and again Iran and talking about the achievements that Israel has made on multiple fronts. He also made clear that if Hezbollah restarts hostilities, that Israel would be prepared, saying we will attack.

He said that he's been told that Hezbollah is simply going to bide time to attack in the future. And he said, we will respond this as we're learning that the Israeli security cabinet has approved that cease fire deal in Lebanon.

Let's get some perspective now. Alex Marquardt is still with us. Alex, what did you make of his remarks that we should note ended very abruptly?

MARQUARDT: Yes, I think the sort of conditionality of this deal was quite interesting. He's obviously facing a fair amount of criticism from inside his cabinet, from inside his own population about agreeing to this, despite the fact that Hezbollah has not been completely dismantled. That's why he's emphasizing the damage that they did inflict on Hezbollah. And he's making it clear that the duration, as he said, of this deal depends on what happens and is contingent upon Israeli military freedom.

Guys, this deal that will be going into place is basically premised on what is known as U.N. Resolution 1701, which is Hezbollah pulling back and not being able to be close to that border with Israel. What is different here is Israel is demanding a lot more freedom of movement, of military movement, primarily in the sky. So, overflights, surveillance, and the ability to take out Hezbollah targets if they deem necessary.

Long before this war started, you would see Israeli strikes in Syria, for example. We never saw them in Lebanon. That could change. If they see, as Netanyahu just said, that Hezbollah is moving back towards the south, is bringing more weaponry in from various borders or in from the water, for example, I expect that we will start to see more often those Israeli strikes, not just in a country like Syria, but inside the Lebanese border. So he is trying to comfort his population in saying, yes, we're agreeing to this deal for the reasons that he laid out.

But fear not, we will continue to respond if need be.

KEILAR: And we're just learning that President Biden will be speaking in the Rose Garden here in the next hour at 2:30 p.m. is the expected time Eastern. What do you expect to hear from him as he talks about this deal that has been struck?

MARQUARDT: I think he is going to hail this as a triumph of U.S. diplomacy, that American diplomats have been working on this for a long time and they have finally succeeded. It wasn't too long ago that I was speaking to the both of you just a couple of weeks ago at the end of September, when the White House had also come out then saying Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a 21-day truce. And then immediately Israel said, whoa, whoa, whoa, we're not agreeing to anything. And there was a lot of egg on there on the U.S. face. There was a lot of embarrassment, a lot of frustration with Israel.

Now it does appear that this deal is in place. One thing I would say is that, yes, while American diplomacy has worked here in bringing the two sides together, the French also playing a role with Hezbollah, because the U.S. does not speak directly with Hezbollah. It is not a guarantee that we had to be here in the first place. The deal was largely in place before this war started. And I think that if you had seen an end to the war in Gaza, that we probably would not have seen a war in Lebanon, that one was sort of contingent on the other, and the U.S. was frankly unable to get the war in Gaza to end.

[13:25:12]

Israel has long considered those two issues to be separate. And because they wanted to continue the war in Gaza and end the rockets coming from the north, they decided to go in. So, it is -- we are seeing a U.S. diplomatic solution driven by the White House. But at the same time, it's not clear that this had to happen the first place.

SANCHEZ: Yes, it was months ago that we heard that this potential cease fire deal between Hamas and Israel was on the one yard line or the 10 yard line.

MARQUARDT: Ten yard line, right.

SANCHEZ: I think it was never quite cross over.

MARQUARDT: Exactly.

SANCHEZ: Alex, thank you so much for that reporting.

We have plenty of news still to come on CNN News Central, including the holiday travel rush. It is on a record number of travelers expected to hit the roads and skies for Thanksgiving, but stormy weather could complicate things. We're following the latest.

KEILAR: Plus more on those punishing tariffs on day one. President- elect Trump vowing massive hikes on goods from Mexico, Canada and China that could sharply increase costs for Americans. We'll be digging into the numbers.

And a family tragedy gets worse. Two weeks after a Hawaii woman goes missing, her father is found dead. What investigators are saying?

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