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ICE Arrests Palestinian Campus Protest Leader; Recession Fears, Tariff Uncertainty Rattle Wall Street; X Hit by Waves of Outages, Musk Blames Cyber Attack; Rubio Arrives in Saudi Arabia Ahead of Ukraine War Talks. Aired 2-2:30p ET

Aired March 10, 2025 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN CO-ANCHOR OF "CNN NEWS CENTRAL": Tariff turmoil. China ups the ante, hitting U.S. agricultural products as it retaliates against President Trump's tariffs. That's also rattling investors already anxious after the president's comments about a possible recession.

BORIS SANCHEZ, CNN CO-ANCHOR OF "CNN NEWS CENTRAL": Plus, can the U.S. broker a deal to end the war between Ukraine and Russia? Saudi Arabia is hosting peace talks this week. Ukraine's president arriving there just a few hours ago. And there is a crackdown on campus, a Palestinian activist who helped lead protests at Columbia is now arrested by immigration authorities. What the president just said about this arrest. We're following these major developing stories and many more, all coming in right here to "CNN News Central."

KEILAR: Today, the Wall Street slump deepens as President Trump's global trade war fuels economic uncertainty and after he declined to rule out the possibility of a recession this year.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARIA BARTIROMO, HOST OF "SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES," FOX NEWS: Are you expecting a recession this year?

DONALD TRUMP, (R) PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I hate to predict things like that. There is a period of transition because what we're doing is very big.

Of course, you hesitate, who knows? All I know is this. We're going to take in hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs and we're going to become so rich, you're not going to know where to spend all that money. I'm telling you, you just watch.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Meanwhile, China has begun imposing broad tariffs on U.S. farm products, retaliating after President Trump doubled the tariffs on all Chinese imports last week. CNN's Jeff Zeleny is at the White House. Jeff, tell us what you're learning. JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Brianna, a new week and a new wave of uncertainty in the markets. We've really seen it all day long following the president's comments over the weekend about the possibility of a recession, not ruling out that possibility, which of course is a question hanging over every administration. But we've certainly heard the President talk about a short-term disruption, some small turn (ph) of pain, but recession is a whole another matter entirely.

But, really looking at the economic policy as a whole, as Beijing is imposing new tariffs today on things like soybeans and wheat and chicken, other products, some members of Congress and some Republican allies wish the president would talk more and focus more on those tariffs, not on Mexico and Canada.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. DON BACON, (R-NE): I hear all the time, as a Republican or a Congressman from Omaha, where our stakes, Omaha beef or Nebraska beef is being blocked out of Chinese ports. They put so many barriers in front of our products. So I would say to the president, or my advice would be, if we're going to do tariffs, focus on our adversaries and China is our adversary, so is Russia. But when it comes to our allies, I think we should be a little more diplomatic and work behind this -- behind closed doors more, and get these problems fixed.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ZELENY: And that of course is Congressman Don Bacon, Republican from Nebraska, talking about how he wishes the administration would focus more on China in terms of tariffs rather than on Canada. But it's clear that on the mind of the President and the White House, still more tariffs on Canada and Mexico, of course, with the new leader in Canada, this is one central question, what that relationship will be like between the president and the new Canadian prime minister.

But again, Brianna, it's only Monday, but those markets certainly still jittery and uncertain over this trade policy.

KEILAR: Yeah, we are definitely seeing that. Jeff Zeleny, thank you. Boris?

SANCHEZ: Let's discuss all this with Chief Economist for KPMG, Diane Swonk. Diane, thank you so much for being with us. The president talks about a period of disturbance, a period of transition. What do you make of that?

DIANE SWONK, CHIEF ECONOMIST, KPMG: Well, clearly they understand that there is going to be pain and there's going to be inflation related to tariffs.

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What I don't think most people understand is, and frankly, it's very difficult to map it out, is what that transition is. And I think they think they're going to get to a period where we actually onshore and we see all this production coming home. But the economics on tariffs and trade wars is pretty unequivocal. The cost they impose on consumers and on manufacturers is greater than any increase we get in protected industries. Great example was the 2018-2019 trade war. Yes, we gained steel worker jobs, that was great for steelworkers, but it was at the expense of a decline in overall manufacturing employment because the cost of inputs went up so much.

The tariffs on dry -- on washers went up in the 2018-2019 trade war, but so did the cost of dryers that were sold with them. So in that way, consumers paid for tariffs and then some because of just the fact they were sold together. And those are the things that I don't think we're getting all of the readout on in terms of what is the end game of all this. There's obviously negotiation tariffs. There are strategic tariffs because of security issues. There are unfair trade policies.

But then, there's also this sort of sense of why are we not dealing with some of these larger issues with our closest trading partners and our most integrated economic relationships behind closed doors. This is a little bit too much of the sausage being made and us all being a part of it.

SANCHEZ: Trump said he didn't want to predict what markets were going to do. He essentially argued that it wasn't worthwhile to think about things in terms of a potential recession or not. His Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said there would not be one. Do you think the way that things are headed, if this tariff war continues, we could end up in a recession this year?

SWONK: We currently don't have a recession, but we do have stagflation. We have a slowdown in economic growth with a rise in the unemployment rate and a rise in inflation. Nothing like the 1970s, but that is a very different scenario than we've been in, and we're in different context of where we were in 2018 and 2019. The breadth and depth of these tariffs are much larger. The ember of inflation are still smoldering and could very easily be reignited. A stagflationary scenario would be the hardest for the Federal Reserve because it would force them to postpone cutting rates even as the economy gets to very weak growth.

SANCHEZ: I want to ask you about a broader perspective. This argument from Trump and some of his allies that it is a national security concern, not only an economic concern, to bring American manufacturing home. Is that the case? Don't consumers benefit from a more globalized economy?

SWONK: Consumers do benefit from a more globalized economy, but yes, there are certain things that are clearly strategically important and that side of it is one aspect of tariffs we should be thinking about. And in fact, the emergency powers that the president has harnessed are usually only used to penalize countries that are considered rogue states, to use as sanctions on countries that have done things that we think are not good for the globe -- for global geopolitical stability and things we're concerned about on a security basis.

So yes, there's a component of that, but these are being used for so many goals and to try to achieve things sort of to turn back the hands of time in a way that just isn't possible out there. You're not going to bring back the kinds of jobs that were once dominant in the industrial Midwest I grew up in. Those jobs are no longer the same as they were even a few years ago, let alone five decades ago. And I think that's an important thing to remember as well.

And if you bring them back, yes, those few people will get jobs, but at what price? And how many fewer people will not be able to work because of the fact that manufacturers can't pass all of those prices on? It actually ends up both stoking inflation and stemming economic growth at the same time when you talk about the kinds of things they're doing. This is a very odd way to go about industrial policy for the United States, knowing full well that there are people who were unfairly left behind by trade. We need to deal with that issue. There's other ways to deal with it than this way.

SANCHEZ: Diane Swonk, thank you so much for sharing your analysis with us.

SWONK: Thank you.

SANCHEZ: Bianna?

KEILAR: Here with us now to talk about the political implications of all of this is Marc Short, Former Chief of Staff to Vice President Mike Pence. Thank you so much for being with us.

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MARC SHORT, FORMER CHIEF OF STAFF TO VICE PRESIDENT MIKE PENCE: Thanks for having me.

KEILAR: And look, we've long known you, especially how President Trump feels about tariffs, but this time around, the governor's cap (ph) is really off. I wonder if you think this is all playing out as he expected it to, as he planned?

SHORT: I think probably not for a couple reasons. I don't think for the markets either. I think the markets anticipated that this would be used kind of for negotiation purposes. And I think the first foray into this with Canada, Mexico and seeing them put, you know, more security troops at the border, and then the present point back (ph) was exactly what they thought would happen.

But now, you're seeing the breadth and scope of these where it's not just targeted toward China as it was really during the first Trump administration. But you see a broad scale, a number of tariffs that he promises are coming on April 2nd from the E.U. to aluminum, to copper, to steel, to reciprocity tariffs, which nobody has seen before. And so, the breadth and scope of this is much more significant than anything that happened during the first administration.

KEILAR: So when you hear him saying that there is a period of transition, which is kind of (inaudible) very big, that's how he put it. And he wouldn't rule out a recession. How are you reading that? SHORT: I read that as expectation setting. I think that again, I think that you saw markets rally between inauguration -- I mean between election day and inauguration, because they were expecting to see return of the deregulatory agenda and believing that this would be a better chance for extending the tax relief, having a Republican president, Republican Congress. They did not anticipate the breadth of these tariffs. And so, I think he's setting expectations that, hey, maybe this is going to take a while. But he's also very responsive to markets. And so I think for some, there's a hope that as he continues to watch markets react to his tariff agenda, that that'll change where he's headed.

KEILAR: He's been trying to downplay that.

SHORT: Sure. Yes.

KEILAR: But we know -- we know in the past how much he watches the market. So when we see, I've been looking at it saying, it looks like the elevator scene out of "The Shining," right? Day after day, we see what the markets look like, it's bad. And he sees that. And how motivating is that?

SHORT: I think it's -- I think it's very motivating because I think one of the parts of his first administration was how successful the economy was and to see the markets rally is something he wants. And so, I think he believes that his tariff policy will actually generate growth for the economy long term. But I don't think he wants to endure the short-term pain of it.

KEILAR: So, right now, we're looking at layoffs up, hiring is slowing, consumer confidence is down, inflation is up. And there's always, I think there's always this lag time from a last administration where a president can say, hey, this is kind of a hangover effect and it hasn't been that long, right?

SHORT: Right.

KEILAR: That he's been in office. But at the same time, he's making a lot of moves. And even as he's trying to blame President Biden and you hear his supporters do that, is that something that politically stands up?

SHORT: I don't think it does. I think the reality again is that -- is that there has been an extraordinary amount of fiscal stimulus ever since COVID in the economy. And as you wind that down and you're saying, we're going a new direction, naturally there's going to be some impact to the economy. But again, if you look at the way markets reacted between election day and inauguration, there is an excitement for it. And so, I think they have already turned the corner on that. What you're seeing now is really a reaction to his trade policy.

KEILAR: So, how are you watching Friday, this shutdown deadline?

SHORT: Yeah, I think actually the president has done a good job there in pulling Republicans onto the position of supporting the CR. I think that it has fascinating that so many Republicans who said they would never support CRs, have now fallen in line with the president. And the only chance of us not extending would be Democrats in the Senate stopping it, which I think is unlikely as well. So, I think actually that potential crisis is going to be averted and the President I think did help avert that.

I think what would be interesting to see though is down the road, I think it's clear that the current team at OMB really believes they have empowerment power. And I think they're setting up a constitutional or I should say, at least a judicial challenge there between the legislative branch and executive branch about what sort of power they have to impound funds. Because if there's not an appropriations bill that specifically specifies where the money's going, they think they have a lot more authority to impound the dollars.

KEILAR: And how does that happen when there's a different party in power?

SHORT: It's a great question, Brianna, because I think that for those who think it's exciting that this administration (inaudible) to withhold those funds, suppose there's a Democrat administration, now you've granted this extraordinary power to the executive branch. And again, if we are -- it's important to remember that because the Nixon administration impounded funds, Congress specifically passed legislation in 1977 to stop that. And so, I'm not so sure they have the legal grounds to stand on, but I think they believe a CR helps them make that case.

KEILAR: All right, we'll see how this continuing resolution works out that way. Marc Short, great to have you. Thank you so much.

SHORT: Thanks, Brianna. Thanks for having me.

KEILAR: Just into CNN, Elon Musk's ex has been hit by three waves of outages since this morning. The billionaire is blaming it on a cyber attack. According to outage tracking site Downdetector, the problems began around 6:00 a.m. Eastern with over 20,000 users reporting problems.

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Then a few hours later, that number reportedly doubled before easing somewhat this afternoon. We'll be updating this story as we do learn more.

And still to come, a new round of high-stakes talks to end Russia's war on Ukraine. Top Trump administration officials will be meeting separately with Russian and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia. Plus, Air Traffic Control audio revealing what a pilot said right before crashing into a parking lot in Pennsylvania. And then later, immigration agents arrest a Palestinian activist linked to the student protest at Columbia University. We'll have that and much more coming up on "CNN News Central."

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SANCHEZ: Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expressing optimism as he arrives in Saudi Arabia today. He and other top White House officials are meeting with Ukrainians tomorrow, working out details for a potential peace deal in the war with Russia Today, Rubio says he's hopeful for a good meeting.

KEILAR: Last month, it was a disastrous Oval Office meeting that we all witnessed between President Trump and President Zelenskyy. That ultimately led to a pause in U.S. military aid and also U.S. intelligence sharing. Here with us now, CNN Contributor and Former CNN Moscow Bureau Chief Jill Dougherty, and Former Spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, Michael Bociurkiw with us now.

So Jill, we should note and you don't have to read too far between the lines here, but going into the talks, Rubio is saying the U.S. wants to hear what concessions Ukraine may be willing to make, not exactly setting Ukraine up in a power position going into this.

JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, that's true. There's no question. I think so far, all of the negotiating that President Trump is and his administration are doing with Russia and Ukraine is concessions on the Ukrainian side. And really to -- at this meeting in Saudi Arabia, you have to say that the critical thing that they have to do, the Ukrainians, is to turn around the relationship with the U.S. That's critical.

Because those steps that the Trump administration has taken, halting military aid, halting intelligence sharing, those are already having an effect reportedly on the battlefield, and they are too (ph) detrimental to Ukraine, especially in that part of Russia called Kursk where the Ukrainians took territory, have held it for months, and now they're losing territory. They're backtracking. So this is having an effect. So timing is critical and concessions, I think they're just going to have to make whatever concessions they can in the hope that President Trump will restore that help.

KEILAR: Michael, what do those concessions look like?

MICHAEL BOCIURKIW, FORMER SPOKESPERSON, ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY AND COOPERATION IN EUROPE: Well, not very good for Ukraine. You know, I actually think we're coming to a point in the not too distant future where the United States may be running out of rope as a useful interlocutor for Ukraine, because on the one hand, they're giving Russia a lot of concessions, and on the other hand, they're trying to extract out of Ukraine a heck of a lot. Let's see if that minerals deal is signed, but also withholding the military aid, the intelligence, before that, the USAID aid. It's very, very painful for Ukraine.

And the way it looks like, tomorrow and the day after is Mr. Rubio and his team may even put forth some Russian demands for Ukraine, which could be very, very difficult territorial concessions. It could, I believe the Russians are really pressing the U.S. to get the remainder of unoccupied Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblast, and that is a red line which President Zelenskyy could never agree to.

SANCHEZ: Jill, at this point, it's unclear if Russia is going to be a part of these talks. And after the White House announced meetings, Russian officials said they would not be involved. Do you think Russia actually wants a peaceful resolution to this war, or are they simply trying to get some kind of temporary ceasefire to restart Putin's goal of obtaining all of Ukraine?

DOUGHERTY: You know, on these discussions in Saudi Arabia, I think it's the United States and Ukraine. Russia, as far as I know, is not going to participate because it's premature. I mean, right now, President Putin will sit there and wait as the Trump Administration tries to maneuver and pressure the Ukrainians to make these concessions. But they're not -- the Russians are not ready to come to the table per se.

I mean, there's no need for them to do it. I think everything is moving in their direction. And I would add one thing to what Michael just said, another really important thing to watch, is for Zelenskyy himself. I mean, it's not only the survival of Ukraine, it's the political survival of Zelenskyy himself, because it's very clear the administration, the American Administration already has talked about possibly removing Zelenskyy or having new elections that might remove Zelenskyy as president.

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The Russians would love that. That is what they want to do. That's what they call de-Nazification, even though the president is Jewish. But, that's, I think, you know, there are two dramas, Ukraine and Zelenskyy himself.

SANCHEZ: Michael, I wonder what you think the mineral deal might ultimately wind up looking like as a result of these talks? Is it likely it's going to come out of this conversation?

BOCIURKIW: The -- Mr. Rubio was tamping down expectations on the flight over that it would be signed. And by the way, I wanted to make clear the Russians will not be in Saudi Arabia, but of course, they do have back channels going on. The prob -- there are many, many problems with that mineral deal, one of them being it is written in such a way where it almost turns Ukraine into the -- what Papua no Guinea is to China, in other words, an economic colony of the United States.

Number two, it's very flawed because the idea is for Mr. Trump to push American contractors to Ukraine, use them almost as a human shield and that doesn't work very well. And thirdly, and the most important point, of course, is that the security guarantees just aren't there. It isn't in a state right now where it can be sold back to the Ukrainian people. And just quickly, if I may, on Mr. Zelenskyy, I think he also has to make some moves now, not later, because he is pressing the E.U. for quicker ascension into that bloc. He tweeted that the other day.

So I think it would benefit him if he moved ahead on the anti- corruption stuff that was very much suspended at the start of the war. But also, things like leaving political, major political opponents alone, not banning them from leaving the country. And then the third one, of course, important to all of us is hands off the media. Let them, try to survive and thrive and get part of those reconstruction funds because that's what business people need to invest in Ukraine in the long term as well, a free and vibrant media sector.

KEILAR: Yeah, a very -- very interesting point there. Jill, as we look at this moment in big picture, what it means and how the U.S. is approaching it, what does the U.S. need to be thinking so that this doesn't go down in history as the U.S. negotiating Ukraine's surrender rather than negotiating a peace deal?

DOUGHERTY: Boy, that's a big question, but I think, you know what, if you put yourself in the place of President Trump, I mean, I think the way he's looking at this is Ukraine is a separate deal. You know, Ukraine is this country, or maybe even, you know, Vladimir Putin does not consider it a country. But we'll leave that alone. But I think, you know, the focus that President Trump has is on the future of restoring the relationship with Russia. And so if you look at it big picture, that gives Russia a lot of power and the power that it wants is to continue to control the area around Russia. You know, like the former Soviet Union, including, you know, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, that whole belt going around the former -- around Russia itself.

And if that's the case, then I think the United States has to look at this in terms of what could happen next. What if Putin decides that that belt isn't wide enough? What if the belt has to go out to Poland? What if it has to go to the Baltics? Will American troops, you know, have to go back into Europe to fight? There are all sorts of implications. Not to mention, this is another subject, but China, you know, if the idea is let's pull Russia closer, so that we can kind of, you know, have them on our side against China, that sets kind of sophisticated chess that may not work because Russia and China at this point are allies.

And so, this is the implications of Ukraine, even though it's one, you know, country in the middle of Europe are huge and it's going to have effect all over the world.

KEILAR: Yeah, such a good point there. Jill, thank you so much. Michael Bociurkiw as well, we appreciate you.

An investigation underway after a small plane with five people on board crashed near a retirement community in Pennsylvania. We'll have details ahead.

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