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National Polls in Trump's First 100 Days; U.S. Economic Growth Declines; Jim Farley is Interviewed about the Economy and Business; Overnight Russian Attack on Ukraine. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired April 30, 2025 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:30:42]

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: President Trump celebrating his first 100 days in office with a rally in Michigan, just as national polls showing dropping approval numbers across a number of issues.

CNN's chief data analyst Harry Enten joining me now.

So, the national polls, we all remember, underestimated Trump in 2024. What if they are doing so in a similar fashion now? Is that what you're seeing?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes. OK. So, you know, a lot of Trump advocates, including Trump himself, has argued that because the polls were off in 2024, quote/unquote, you can't trust the polls now. That is a line of BS. That is a (INAUDIBLE) talking about here. Well, let's just talk about Trump's average net approval rating. I average across five recent national polls among registered voters. So, we're talking voters here, not adults. Currently he's averaging, get this, minus 12 points. Way underwater.

But OK, let's say the polls are off like they were in 2024. What would his net approval rating be? Well, it's pretty gosh darn similar. It's minus ten points. He's still way underwater. Historically low for a president. Only basically matching himself last time around. Way below where Joe Biden was. Way below where Barack Obama was. Way below where George W. Bush was at this point in their presidency. And that is because the national polls, although they underestimated Trump in 2024, they only underestimated his margin by about two points.

So, we give him the two points here, and he's still swimming with the fishes, way underwater, no matter what way you put it. At least if we apply the polls being off like they were in 2024.

SIDNER: So, those are presidential races. But we are now going towards a midterm in 2026. What if the polls are currently off like they were in 2018?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. So, let's take it a different way, right? Let's just say the polls are off like they were in 2018 because we're heading into a midterm election. All the House Republicans, some Senate Republicans, wondering how popular is Donald Trump?

Well, if the polls are off like they were in 2018, get this, his net approval rating, we apply that same error, would be minus 13 points, which is actually a point worse than it currently is according to the average of the national polls at minus 12 points. That is because in 2018 the national polls actually underestimated Democrats when it came to the national House vote.

So, if the polls are off like they were in 2018, that does Donald Trump no favors in terms of his popularity. It's actually slightly worse.

And one last thing I will point out, Sara Sidner, it is this, Trump's net approval rating. We take a look at all the five national polls, underwater, underwater, underwater, underwater, underwater, all by double digits at this particular point. There is just no good signs for Donald Trump when it comes to his popularity, at least when it comes to his net approval rating. It is historically low, no matter how you slice it.

SIDNER: All right, Harry Enten giving us the business. Really appreciate it. Thank you.

John.

ENTEN: Thank you.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, we do have breaking news. GDP numbers. Basically economic growth for the first quarter of this year. Our first chance to get a glimpse of how the Trump economic agenda is affecting the economy. And if I'm reading them correctly, GDP came in at minus 0.3 percent, which would be the first quarterly contraction, I believe, since 2022.

With us now, we're lucky to have CNN anchor and chief business and economics correspondent Erin Burnett with us.

Am I reading this correctly, down 0.3 percent in the first quarter?

ERIN BURNETT, CNN ANCHOR AND CHIEF BUSINESS AND ECONOMIC CORRESPONDENT: Yes, you are. That's the numbers that we have coming in here, John, this this early number for GDP. So that's January, February and March. So, that's coming in with a shrinking, contracting 0.3 percent.

OK, that's bad. You say the first time since 2022. Two reasons to just emphasize that point. First, it was expected to expand. Not by a lot, but it was expected to expand. So, this is weaker than expected. That's the first thing to take away from it.

And secondly, compare it to the fourth quarter. There was growth of about 2.4 percent. So, you're going from growing 2.4 percent to actually contracting. That's a major move.

And the reason for it, John, is quite simply basically companies building up their inventories, stockpiling, an increase in the trade deficit. They did that in the first quarter because they were expecting Trump's tariffs.

But I'll say one other thing. Those tariffs - what was liberation day, John, April 2nd, right? So - and that is 145 percent tariffs. Nobody expected that announcement or what happened and the magnitude of it. So, what you're seeing in that inventory building that made this number so weak actually underestimates what companies then subsequently did, right?

[08:35:00]

So, GDP is inherently a backward looking number. But all that context I think is important when we - when we look into this.

So -

BERMAN: So, this number -

BURNETT: All right, so -

BERMAN: Go ahead. I'm sorry, go ahead.

BURNETT: John and Sara - yes.

BERMAN: Go ahead, I'm sorry.

BURNETT: Yes, no, I was just going to say, yes, OK, we've got the CEO of Ford with us right now, right on the back of this, John, Sara and Kate, joining us, Jim Farley.

And, Jim, I really appreciate your time. So here - we just got these numbers, as you're hearing John and I talk about them. You're, of course, at your Ford Expedition plant in Louisville, Kentucky. The U.S. economy is shrinking three-tenths of a percent in the first quarter, significantly weaker than expected. A dramatic turnaround from the fourth quarter of last year. And all of that ahead of the tariff announcement.

So, you know, we're in a world right now, consumer confidence expectations of the future are their lowest in 13 years. Where you're standing right now, is that fear showing up in the dealer lots?

JIM FARLEY, PRESIDENT AND CEO, FORD MOTOR COMPANY: Well, not - not for us in auto.

Thank you very much for having me on the show.

I'm - I'm in our most profitable auto company. And Ford is the most American auto company. And we make 80 plus percent of our vehicles here.

And to your point, you know, it's tough to tell right now. The reason is because we're seeing double digit sales increases since March and April. But we ran this employee pricing. I don't know if that's unique to us. There may be a lot of customers going out and buying cars, you know, before what they fear is the imports increasing prices. That may be a dynamic. We're certainly seeing our inventories are shrinking at the dealership.

BURNETT: All right, and that's - and so you're saying what some of this might be is people rushing to buy ahead. So, you can't - I guess is what you're saying, you can't tell if there's going to be weakness because you're taking from the future right now. That's - that's the unknown.

FARLEY: Well, we're just seeing - we're seeing a lot of people respond to our employee pricing. And - and Ford is an American company. I - I think, you know, for many years, people - you know, half of the vehicles sold in the U.S. were imported. Maybe not everyone knew that. So, it's hard for me to tell.

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: I think we're in the first or second inning here of a nine inning game. But so far for us in the auto, you know, the revenue has been pretty strong. We'll report earnings next week. And you'll - you'll see that as a trend.

But as you said, there are a lot of ins and outs when it comes to tariffs.

BURNETT: So, you - all right, I want to ask you that, but you just said something really important there, Jim. You said that you're going to report earnings next week.

Stellantis, your rival here, they just came out hours ago and said they can't forecast anything from this point on. They suspended all guidance for the future because they said tariff related uncertainties.

General Motors, I mean, General Motors, your colleague Mary Barra came out and said they could not release earnings yesterday. They could not release forecasts. They had to put the whole thing on hold for a few days because they just couldn't get clarity on what the numbers are.

Are you telling us that you're just not seeing that at all? That - do you feel that, you know, you've got the clarity for your own numbers, the clarity for guidance, the, you're just in a completely different world than they are right now?

FARLEY: No, I would say, I - first, I don't want to preview our earnings, but - but I will say some basic things. We know exactly what the tariff bill would look like, you know, in terms of cost for the company. We know the offsets. What we don't know is how competitors are going to respond. You know, we're the most American company. So, if there's any company that can manage through these tariffs, it's Ford. We make 80 percent here. So - and our competitors are different. Even the - even the domestic competitors are some of the biggest importers into our industry. So, you know, they will have a totally different tariff bill.

You - don't think of all the three domestic companies as the same. We're not. We're really different.

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: But as I said, you know, next week I think we'll be able to tell people kind of what the tariff bills for Ford would look like, the most American company. What - what kind of offsets. What we don't know, Erin, is what are the import competitors going to do?

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: Are they going to build ten factories? Are they going to take pricing and pass it on to the customers this summer? You know, the stuff we built now is priced. If we announce a price increase now, it will go into play in July and August. So, we have to wait until then to see what our competitors do. I hope that makes sense.

BURNETT: OK. No, it does on some level, but you keep emphasizing the most American company. You've now said it, I haven't counted exactly how many times, Jim, but obviously you're making that point loud and clear.

Does that prevent you from any pricing increases? I mean are you confident at this point saying that there's not going to be any price increases coming from Ford trucks or cars this summer?

FARLEY: No, I'm not saying that. I'm - I'm saying - I'm saying that I'm not going to be specific about our pricing. But I will say one thing, we're announcing today that we're going to extend our employee pricing through July 4th.

[08:40:06]

That's a big commitment. I don't - I don't know if the other competitors are going to be able to do that, but we want to keep our prices competitive and - and low. We sell some of the highest volume vehicles in America, like the - like the F-150. And we think this is an opportunity for Ford having a different footprint. We have a different exposure to tariffs. And - and that, to us, is an - an advantage.

BURNETT: Yes. All right, so I understand what you're saying. Employee pricing through July 4th. Obviously, you're announcing that right now. But not - not commenting on - on prices beyond that and whether there'll be increases.

You also said that you understand the - the tariffs. And I want to ask you more about that because so many people don't - the markets, not just others in your industry, of course, but across in other industries where there's been suspension of forecasts, whether it's from just economic uncertainty or the tariffs themselves.

There was a line on a CNBC article trying to summarize the changes in the auto tariffs yesterday. I just wanted to read it to you really also for everyone to understand out there what we're dealing with, see if anyone can follow along. It says, "parts-related reimbursements include potential offsets of an amount equal to 3.75 percent of the value of a U.S.-made car that's assembled before May 1st. After that, the reimbursement cap is lowered to 2.5 percent of the car's value until April 2027. The administration calculated those rates by applying a 25 percent duty to 15 percent of the value of a U.S. assembled vehicle in the first year, 25 percent duty to 10 percent of that value in the second year."

Now you can just go ahead and speed up my voice like a drug disclaimer. Does that all make sense? And do you actually think that will last more than 24 or 48 hours, when all the rules could change again?

FARLEY: We'll see. But here, let me take you through the math. You know, a $40,000 or $50,000 F-150, you know, 75 to 80 percent of the parts are made in America. But to keep it competitive and affordable compared to companies that import from overseas, like Mexico or South Korea or Japan, you know, we - we have to import certain parts. And a lot of parts, like fasteners, washers, carpet, wiring looms are just not available. We can't even buy those parts here. So, for affordability and available in the supply chain, what the president did is say, OK, for 15 percent of your parts, if you make a vehicle in the U.S., and you make 75 percent of the parts in the vehicle from the U.S. -

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: There's 15 percent exemption from the tariffs. And also the second thing he said is compounding. We have a lot of parts that come from overseas that have multiple tariffs. We had the fentanyl tariffs. We have the China tariffs. We have the reciprocal tariffs.

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: Some of our parts went from zero tariff to 140 percent tariff. So, they decided to say, you get one tariff, it's 25 percent. You know, that - that clarifies things. But, boy, do we have a lot of work to do with the administration on exports. You know, and these parts - affordability of parts is a really important thing for America because we got to keep the vehicles affordable. Yes, we want to make them like Ford does in the U.S., but we also want to make the vehicles affordable that are built in the U.S.

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: And the parts are critical for that.

BURNET: So, a crucial - and I - you say, boy, a lot of work we need to do with this administration. But, you know, again, as you stand there in an Expedition plant, it - you know, you were saying, 75 to 80 percent of the parts come from the U.S. And I know that's a general number. I'm not saying the plant you're standing at necessarily specifically. But - so that means 20 to 25 percent aren't.

Are you going to - are you willing to actually put real billions of dollars of capital expenditure on the line to change that number, to make a long term decision that Ford is going to bring more plant activity, parts and beyond, to the U.S.? Are you at that point or not yet? FARLEY: We are. We're building a new plant in Ohio and Tennessee.

We're - we're number two to Tesla in electric. We're number three to hybrid to - to both the Japanese competitors. We're investing across these different kinds of powertrains. We're kind of the only one who offers all of it. You can get electric F-150, a hybrid F-150 -

BURNETT: Yes.

FARLEY: A V-8 F-150, an ecoboost F-150. And we don't really care. We just want people to be - have the choice.

So, we're building two brand new factories in the U.S. And - and we're the most American already.

As far as parts are concerned, that's a good question. Now, we have a lot more work to do to, you know, can we even do this, that 15 or 20 percent? And that's what we have to work through.

Look, we're expecting our competitors to do what Ford has already done, which is to localize more production, like this plant here in Kentucky.

BURNETT: So, let me just, before you go, and I know you have to go, but have your conversations with the president been productive and have you back - do you have a direct line to him to talk to him about this?

FARLEY: We have worked with his team, like, every day for the last couple months.

[08:45:03]

And - so, a very high level of engagement.

Look, the administration knows Ford's a bit different. And - and - and we've also been working with Mary and - and Stellantis too as a group, because we recognize how important this moment is to get this all right and kind of figure it out together. And I - I have - have to say that the engagement has been very high. Bill Ford has talked to the president a couple times. I know that's, you know, typical.

But, look, we're all trying to figure this out to do the right thing for the - for the country. And it's going to take a little time. That's - but we never left the U.S. I guess that's my point. We just never left. So, we're in a different situation than the other companies. And - and we also want to do the right thing, like we're building two new plants. But we have to figure out this affordability part of this.

BURNETT: All right. Well, Jim, I appreciate your time, and thank you very much. We all appreciate your time. Thank you.

And CNN NEWS CENTRAL will be back, of course, with John, Kate and Sara right after the break.

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KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Overnight, a deadly Russian drone attack on Ukraine. At least three people were killed, 60 others injured in this attack across the country. This happened just hours after President Trump had said that there - that progress must be made towards peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. Leaving a big question mark more, even a bigger question mark around all of it.

CNN's Clare Sebastian has much more on this for us.

And, Clare, I mean Russia is ramping up its attacks on Ukraine in the face of this, while it also is promising a unilateral ceasefire to come next week. What is the impact, do you think, on these efforts of the Trump administration towards peace?

CLARE SEBASTIAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Kate, it's definitely true that Russia has been ramping up attacks. It's now almost more notable in Ukraine when we don't get one of these very large overnight drone barrages. And we heard today from Ukraine's top general that Russia is also increasing, he said. significantly the intensity of hostilities on the front lines, especially in the east around Pokrovsk (ph).

And we've seen over the last week especially how this has increased the frustration of President Trump has led to an unusual level of criticism directed at the Russian president, most notably after that very notable meeting between him and Zelenskyy at the Vatican. He then went on Truth Social and promised more sanctions against Russia, saying that perhaps they needed to deal with Putin in a different way and that he didn't want peace after all.

So, I think the critical question now is, will the U.S. do more than just talk about this? And in this interview that President Trump did on Tuesday with ABC, it was interesting that he did seem to slightly moderate this rhetoric.

Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He could be tapping me along a little bit. I would say that he would like to stop the war.

TERRY MORAN, ABC ANCHOR: You believe that?

TRUMP: I think that if - if it weren't for me, I think he'd want to take over the whole country personally.

MORAN: And you think Vladimir Putin wants peace?

TRUMP: I think he does, yes. I think he does.

MORAN: Still?

TRUMP: I think because of me.

MORAN: Even with the raining missiles on -

TRUMP: I think he really - his - his - his dream was to take over the whole country. I think, because of me, he's not going to do that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SEBASTIAN: So, it seems, like I said, that this is - the criticism is now somewhat couched. He says, you know, I think he wants peace. By the way, the suggestion that Russia isn't taking over the whole of Ukraine because of Trump, I think, gives the Russian army too much credit and ignores the fact that Ukraine thwarted its attempt to march on Kyiv three years ago.

But look, Ukraine is now pushing very hard for the U.S. to ramp up pressure on Russia. The threat from the Trump administration to walk away, if this peace deal doesn't work out, is still sort of hanging in the air, but we did hear over the weekend, Kate, from Marco Rubio, the secretary of state, who said that they haven't done anything like sanctions on Russia yet because they still calculate that the best way to end this is to keep Russia at the table.

But as you see, Russia, meanwhile, is significantly ramping up attacks, and there's no sign yet of its willingness or any willingness from Russia to sign on to a ceasefire that's more meaningful than the three days they've announced next week.

BOLDUAN: Yes, that's exactly right.

Clare, thank you so much for your reporting.

Sara.

SIDNER: All right, this morning, a judge has ruling that the Palestinian activist Khalil Muhammad can - sorry, Mahmoud, can fight his wrongful detention case in federal court after he was detained for deportation. We'll have more on that story.

Plus, a runaway kangaroo named, appropriately, Sheila, temporarily shuts down the highway in Alabama. What we know about where she came from.

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[08:57:23]

SIDNER: On our radar this morning, the central and eastern U.S. are under threat of more potentially catastrophic flooding and severe weather after severe weather struck more than a dozen states yesterday. The powerful winds and rain tore through communities, leaving debris and damage in their path. In Pennsylvania alone, nearly half a million people are without power, and two school districts outside Pittsburgh had to be closed.

All right, a federal judge ruled on Tuesday that Palestinian activist Khalil Mahmoud can move forward with a lawsuit claiming he was unlawfully detained for his political views, according to the court documents. Mahmoud is a permanent U.S. resident and recent Columbia graduate who took part in the protest against Israel's and its bombing campaign in Gaza after Hamas' October 7th terrorist attacks on Israel. The judge also ruled in his favor, and that he would keep jurisdiction over the case in New Jersey federal court. The ACLU praising the ruling, calling it a huge step forward. Mahmoud remains at an ICE detention facility in Louisiana.

A petting zoo's runaway kangaroo temporarily shutting down part of an Alabama highway on Tuesday. No, that is not Australia. State troopers and the animal's owner tried to steer it out of harms' way. You can see all the cars slowing down, sort of stopping. Officials say parts of I-85 in Tuskegee closed after the kangaroo named Sheila interrupted traffic for a bit and caused two vehicles to actually crash into each other. The kangaroo was not injured the agency said in a Facebook post. It is unclear if any of the drivers, though, were. Officials were able to recapture Sheila and the roadway was later opened.

A new hour of CNN NEWS CENTRAL starts right now.

BOLDUAN: Breaking this morning, significantly weaker economic growth. GDP showing a sharp decline in the first three months of the year. The U.S. economy just had its worst quarter since 2022.

College students labeled as criminals without evidence. It's a new CNN analysis of how the Trump administration's designated international students as criminals without checking to see if it's true.

Plus, how the Trump administration's policies are impacting children's health. What it means for vaccines and protecting infants amid an outbreak of measles.

I'm Kate Bolduan, with John Berman and Sara Sidner. This is CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

[09:00:02]

SIDNER: Breaking this morning, brand new numbers just out on the state of the economy.