Return to Transcripts main page

CNN News Central

Trump Trade War; Federal Reserve Set to Announce Decision on Interest Rates; Papal Conclave Continues. Aired 1-1:30p ET

Aired May 07, 2025 - 13:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[13:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:00:28]

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN HOST: Welcome to CNN's special coverage of the papal conclave.

Right now, the highly secretive process to choose Pope Francis' successor is under way; 133 cardinals from all around the world are locked behind sealed doors inside the Vatican's Sistine Chapel taking part in a centuries-old ritual known as the conclave to elect the 267th leader of the Catholic Church.

Today is the first round of voting. And, at any moment, we could see some smoke rising from that chimney there above the Sistine Chapel.

ERICA HILL, CNN HOST: If any cardinal receives a two-thirds majority, white smoke will rise. The black smoke, of course, signals no decision has been made and that the voting will continue.

The cardinal electors have been completely sequestered. They had to hand over their phones. And they can't leave, they can't communicate with the outside world until a new pope has been chosen.

CNN anchor Erin Burnett is live in Rome.

So, Erin, set the scene for us there as we are waiting for these first plumes of smoke.

ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: Well, Erica, here's what I will tell you.

First and foremost -- and I know you all are going to be going to various parts of the square, but it is packed. It is standing room only, and everyone now -- you have got phones up, but everybody is standing and trying to stare for the little angle that they can get at that chimney.

And the chimney is on the -- obviously, the top of the Sistine Chapel, which is right over my left shoulder. Right behind the building there is the Sistine Chapel. So you can't see the chapel itself from here, but from St. Peter's Square, where we are here at the Vatican, you can see the chimney. And so it is packed. Throughout the day, people have been gathered,

but it is very clear that everyone is now aware that we are in what we call a smoke window, that those doors shut, as you said, a resounding bang, bang for each of the wooden doors of the Sistine Chapel.

And they had made everybody who is not a cardinal leave that room. So now they're in the process. There's prayer. There's meditation. There is, at some point, going to be voting. They also had to randomly pick nine cardinals to serve in crucial roles, like counting the votes and recounting the votes to make sure.

But there will be one vote tonight, so we know that. There will be smoke tonight. It will be one color or another. Highly expected, of course, Erica and Brianna, that it will be black, there will not be a pope. That would need to have a two-thirds majority on the first vote, which is not expected at all.

And we will see. But, right now, there are thousands of people here in St. Peter's Square. It is packed. All of the streets that I can see leading into the square where we are also packed with people body to body just waiting. And it is a good feeling. It is a crowd with a good feeling, which is, in and of itself, a pretty special thing to witness.

KEILAR: These conclaves, Erin, are known for surprises. But I do wonder if we have a sense of maybe who some front-runners might be and if there is a dark horse candidate or two?

BURNETT: Yes, so, obviously, there is the question of whether the pope will be more liberal and progressive and follow in the footsteps of Francis, who named the majority of the cardinals who are in the Sistine Chapel now voting, or whether the church will return to more tradition and conservatism.

And, specifically, that would refer to perhaps some social issues such as LGBTQ and women. That is, of course, the big question. However, front-runners -- I mean, the person who is leading today, the secretary of state, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, he is Italian.

He is the secretary of state of the Holy See, 70 years old. Experts have been saying, look, if it is him, it could happen very quickly. But there are many others. I mean, our -- quote, unquote -- "short list" has at least 18 cardinals on it.

And we are in a setting, again, where the majority of these cardinals have never been in a conclave before. The majority of them were appointed by Francis, at the same time that he ended the regular meetings that cardinals would have had. So they don't have a lot of familiarity with each other, even in the sense that you would have meeting in Rome at meetings.

So they don't know each other. So that could mean this goes longer. Cardinals have made comments, have said they anticipate it being short. That may be based on conversations and -- that they have already had. Or it could be based on something as simple as, for a lot of cardinals, it is hard, as it would be for anybody watching, to not have your phone or your iPad or television or any communication with the outside world.

And all of those things have been taken away from them now. They cannot have their phones, iPads, iPhones, anything until the end of the conclave.

HILL: It is fascinating to think about that in this moment, right? What would any of us do without that device for so long? Might be kind of nice on a number of levels.

(LAUGHTER)

[13:05:01]

BURNETT: Yes.

HILL: You mentioned there's a sense that it could perhaps move quickly. When there is a decision, there will be that white smoke, but then how will this new pope be introduced to the world, Erin?

BURNETT: So there will be the white smoke, and then it may be hard for us all to tell whether it's white, like, whether it's gray. Is that black or white?

So, about 30 to 40 seconds after a pope is chosen, there will be bells. Bells will go up and resound across this square. You will have the roar of the crowd, and then they will know there is a pope. But then it could be up to a half-an-hour, Erica, before we know who that pope is, because there's no announcement.

We don't know until we see -- and I think you can see behind me the balcony, the balcony with the red velvet curtains. That is where the pope will come out. The pope will be announced. So the only way that you would know who is the pope is if the cardinal who is supposed to introduce the pope isn't the person who comes out. Then you would know it's that person.

Otherwise, no one is going to know until the actual pope comes out and we see who it is, which is a pretty incredible thing in this day and age of social media to have something being carried out according to tradition that goes back essentially nearly 800 years, and that the first time we will know who the cardinal is, that cardinal is in the room right now, will be when the pope walks up to those curtains behind me here at St. Peter's Square.

KEILAR: And that seagull taking the prime spot by that papal chimney above the Sistine Chapel.

HILL: Right.

(LAUGHTER)

BURNETT: Yes. Yes.

KEILAR: Hey, can't blame him or her.

Erin, thank you so much for that. And we are going to continue to follow this from Vatican City with you

throughout the hour.

Let's see how people are responding to this monumental event.

CNN's David Culver is in St. Peter's Square there.

David, what are you hearing?

DAVID CULVER, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Brianna and Erica, your view of the chimney is far better than this crowd's view. It's so small from here, but folks are gathering. They're filling (AUDIO GAP)

She's back there on that (AUDIO GAP) and she's referencing this part. (AUDIO GAP) and then there's a little barrier. We can't even walk that direction now because it's becoming so crowded. That starts Vatican City.

And then you're within St. Peter's (AUDIO GAP) now who have just been incredibly lively and pleasant. In fact, I was speaking to a group of nuns earlier, and they said they have never seen the streets of Rome so pleasant and people so willing to engage, and they said even start to talk about their faith.

And I noticed a young group of guys coming through here, young professionals, and they said that this is a moment for them to actually reconnect with their Catholic faith.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CULVER: Are you Catholic?

DAN SVIZENY, PENNSYLVANIA RESIDENT: Yes, I am.

CULVER: You hesitated there a little bit.

(LAUGHTER)

SVIZENY: I mean, yes, I think...

CULVER: Today?

SVIZENY: If I'm -- if my mom's going to see this, yes.

CULVER: Your mom might see this.

(LAUGHTER)

SVIZENY: Yes. Yes, then I am.

CULVER: You're very Catholic.

SVIZENY: Yes.

CULVER: And what does it mean? I assume you were raised Catholic. Did you go to Catholic school? SVIZENY: I did for a little bit. It means a lot. I think that, for me

right now, a journey where I'm starting a new family with some new kids, it's a good time to find some spirituality again, right?

So I think it means a lot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CULVER: They're here for work, but like most folks who are in this city right now, they're waiting for any sort of sign that perhaps there's a pope that's been elected here.

And we're told that, once that happens, folks who live in this city will drop everything and rush here to fill it up even more than it is now.

KEILAR: All right, David Culver, thank you for that report.

What a scene there in St. Peter's Square. Of course, we are watching for that smoke and to try to discern what color it is when it does come out...

(LAUGHTER)

KEILAR: ... which can always be the tricky part, with the conclave now formally under way inside the Sistine Chapel.

CNN's live special coverage from Vatican City continues right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:13:40]

KEILAR: Welcome back to our special coverage of the papal conclave.

Any moment, we could see that smoke begin to rise from the chimney above the Sistine Chapel. You're looking at the chimney right there. We will be looking carefully to discern whether that smoke is white or black.

HILL: Yes, tough to tell, especially sometimes with the sky and the clouds.

Of course, if it is white, it means the 133 cardinals locked who are behind closed doors inside the chapel have elected a new pope. If that smoke is black, well, they're going back to the drawing table. That means that no candidate has secured that two-thirds majority needed, and the conclave, of course, will continue.

Bishop Robert Barron joins us now. He's the founder of Word on Fire. And Father Sam Sawyer is also with us. He's a Jesuit priest and the president and editor in chief at America Media.

It's nice to have both of you with us. Father Sawyer, well, you're both there live in Rome. Just set the

scene for us today. We have been working up to this moment. It was so dramatic. We were watching earlier as those doors were closed. What is it like there as this conclave gets under way and now it is a waiting game for the smoke?

REV. SAM SAWYER, EDITOR IN CHIEF, AMERICA MEDIA: Sure.

There's been a spirit of prayer here in the square. So, even just before those doors closed, there were people gathered in the square watching on the big screens as each of the cardinals took an oath, laid his hands on the Bible.

[13:15:03]

And there was a real sense of praying with the cardinals as they were doing that. A little bit before that, we had the litany of the saints sung, people in the square singing and praying along, so really a sense of prayer, and now, I think, a real sense of excitement as the crowds have filled in and are waiting for the first smoke of this conclave.

KEILAR: No doubt they are there with so much anticipation.

And, Bishop Barron, this -- we should note, this group of cardinals is one of the most diverse in the church's history. Pope Francis appointed more than 20 cardinals from nations that had never previously had one, nearly all of them from developing countries. How could that impact who they are going to select as their next leader?

BISHOP ROBERT BARRON, DIOCESE OF WINONA-ROCHESTER, MINNESOTA: I think it has a big impact.

I mean, first of all, as many have said, they don't know each other as well. And they have now spent several days, I think, getting to know each other better. But, also, you have got representation from places that never had cardinals. And who knows. The pope may come from Asia, may come from Africa for the first time, which I would find very exciting.

So I think it sets up a very interesting conclave.

KEILAR: We're watching people excited. They're praying the rosary. They're waving at cameras as they are getting ready for some kind of show. They're not sure what it'll be.

But, Father Sawyer, we heard Cardinal Re in his homily this morning stressing this need for unity in the church and also fostering communion. How do you take those messages? How do you think the cardinals may have received those words?

SAWYER: I think unity, communion, those have been words that have been in conversation a lot for the last week-and-a-half here in Rome.

The little bit we have heard about what the cardinals have been speaking about in general congregation, those themes have been strong. One of the things last -- actually, last October, Pope Francis gave a Wednesday audience, where he talked about how the church is moved to unity by the Spirit in two ways, both going out to embrace everyone and also being gathered back in to become one.

And so I think, in the interplay between those two, that's really where the cardinals are trying to discern as they're voting in conclave.

HILL: Bishop Barron, in terms of the general congregation, the meetings leading up to this moment, each of those conversations is going to have an influence on the decisions that are made, on what is happening in the conclave there.

Give us a better sense of what some of those themes, what some of those priorities may be. What we know about that?

BARRON: I think those conversations -- yes, I think those conversations will have a big impact. And that's where in some ways the action takes place.

As Father was saying, the conclave itself is more like a liturgy. It's a very prayerful exercise. There's not debate going on. But all that happened now in the days leading up to this moment. And the impression I got from talking to some folks, they're pretty frank, pretty direct.

Some of the issues, I think evangelization, especially in the West, where there's so much disaffiliation from the churches. But go to the African continent, where the church is burgeoning, but is also under great persecution.

Go to Asia, and you have a lot of questions around the interreligious dialogue. So, the church is such a global reality that we have to look at it through multiple lenses. And I think that's what was happening during those general congregations.

KEILAR: And, Bishop, is there any chance that we could actually see a pope selected with this vote coming up here, or would you say absolutely not?

BARRON: I would say it's close to no chance. It's possible.

But the first ballot actually is a very important moment, because we have talked about names. They have talked about themes. For the first time, they're going to sense, exactly who are the candidates? Maybe some people that we have all been talking about are not really going to get votes.

And then they will see, OK, probably someone a little more left, someone a little more right. So this vote will be an important one, almost certainly indecisive. But it will give a good indication of where the conclave is.

HILL: Father, so much of this, the mystery too, is because it is so secretive. And in this day and age, no phones are allowed in there, the fact that the information cannot come out.

Why is that secrecy so important in this moment?

SAWYER: Well I think the secrecy, really, it's meant to help the cardinals discern in freedom. So it gives them the freedom to vote within their own conscience for the man they think is best suited to be the pope.

So, right now, we would talk about that in the contemporary age in terms of freedom of conscience, their ability to be really frank with each other, and then also to vote according to how the Spirit moves them. But, certainly, in the past, one of the reasons to protect the conclave this way is because it would come under political pressure or come under sometimes pressure from people who would basically try to hand the papacy down within families.

So, protecting the conclave this way really gives the church the freedom to select the pope it really needs.

[13:20:05]

KEILAR: Yes, thank you so much to both of you. Really appreciate it.

This is a fascinating moment.

HILL: It is.

KEILAR: Bishop and Father, we appreciate your time this afternoon.

BARRON: Thanks. God bless you.

SAWYER: Thank you very much. God bless.

HILL: And, of course, we will continue to keep an eye on that on that chimney and everything else that is happening in Vatican City, where there are folks there on the ground.

We are also, though, following a number of important stories here at home, including the Fed. We are now waiting on the Fed, the Central Bank, which faces a tough decision in this moment over whether to lower interest rates or maybe keep them steady. Of course, that pressure comes amid increasing pressure from the president himself.

KEILAR: And the president and his aides, as we mentioned, under pressure to reach trade deals as well before new tariffs lead to empty -- empty shelves and frustrated Americans.

We will have that ahead on CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[13:25:35]

KEILAR: Decision day.

Minutes from now, the Fed will announce the outcome of its closely watched two-day meeting on interest rates. And despite some serious pressure from the president, the expectation is that he won't get the cut that he wants.

CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich is monitoring all of the developments from New York.

Vanessa, what are we expecting the Fed to do today?

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: We are expecting the Fed to do nothing today in terms of moving rates in either direction. We're expecting them to hold rates steady.

And this is what investors are pricing in. There's a Fed watch tool that we keep track of, and about 2 percent now of investors think a cut is coming, but 98 percent believe that the Fed is going to hold rates steady. And that is very much because the Federal Reserve is in wait-and-see mode, really wait and see what happens with this trade war.

All of the data that the Federal Reserve has looking backwards indicates that the economy is on stable footing, but looking forward is where the questions lie. And so the Fed wants more data in order to understand what to do in the future.

But look at that line chart on your screen right now. You can see, over the pandemic, when the Fed dropped rates to zero percent. And, since then, they have had to increase rates in order to bring down inflation. But in the last two years, look at your screen there.

Between about 4.25 percent and 5 percent, you can see that rates have kind of hovered in that area, so still remaining high. And that is why President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve, an independent institution, to cut rates. He has also aired his displeasure with the head of the Federal Reserve, Chair Jerome Powell.

Listen to what he just said on "Meet the Press" a few days ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He should lower them. And I wish the people that are on that board would get him to lower, because we are at a perfect time. It's already late, but he should lower interest rates.

KRISTEN WELKER, MODERATOR, "MEET THE PRESS": Do you rule out removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell?

TRUMP: I'm not -- you know, I get to change him very quickly anyway. It's in a very short period of time.

WELKER: In 2026. You're not going to remove -- you don't have plans to remove him before 2026, when his time is up?

TRUMP: No, no, no, that was a total -- why would I do that? I get to replace the person in another short period of time.

(END VIDEO CLIP) YURKEVICH: So Jerome Powell does have another year at the Federal Reserve, but this next year is going to be tricky, because cutting rates could fuel more inflation. Raising rates could point to a recession.

So the Federal Reserve is going to have to wait for more data to come in about just how the president's trade war is affecting the economy. Currently, inflation, the inflation measure that the Federal Reserve likes to look at, PCE, stands at 2.3 percent, so significantly down from those highs of 9 percent over the pandemic, however not quite at that 2 percent target rate.

That is also why the Federal Reserve is looking to hold and assess exactly what is going on. One thing that we have heard from economists that could be formulating because of this trade war, something called stagflation, that is a very, very bad word for the Federal Reserve. That means high prices, high unemployment, and not a lot of economic growth.

It'll be interesting, Brianna, at 2:30, after the Fed makes their call at 2:00, 2:30, to hear from the Federal Reserve chair. I am sure he will be asked about all of this. He often keeps a tight lip, but he will be asked about all of these things, including the president's pressure on him.

KEILAR: All right, we will be looking for that.

Vanessa, thank you for the update -- Erica.

HILL: Well, top Trump officials are set to meet with their Chinese counterparts this weekend in Switzerland. For now, the talks center on de-escalating the trade tensions between the world's two largest economies, rather than focusing on a big trade deal. That's according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

CNN's Alayna Treene joins us now from the White House.

So, Alayna, Secretary Bessent testifying this morning to Congress for a second day. What more did we learn from that testimony?

ALAYNA TREENE, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Well, what we heard from Bessent today, Erica, is kind of in line with what we have really been hearing from top economic officials regarding these trade plans.

What they're trying to do is downplay the overall impact of tariffs, particularly as we're seeing all of the economic turmoil in light of them. And Bessent tried to describe the president's economic agenda as being three-pronged, not just focused on tariffs. He said you can't view them in isolation. I want you to listen to how he put it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SCOTT BESSENT, TREASURY SECRETARY: We believe the -- over the long term, that it will drive growth in the economy. And, as I have said many times, it is a mistake to look at trade in isolation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)