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U.S.-Iran Talks Continue; Trump's Numbers in Two Swing States; Emily Glazer is Interviewed about Bill Gates. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired February 26, 2026 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:30:00]

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Said that he believes that a conflict with Iran would be easily won by the U.S. We know from sources, though, that that is not really consistent with the view of his top general, who has also recently, in the Situation Room, acknowledged that if the U.S. was able to successfully facilitate regime change in Iran, he can't predict what would come next. So, that really does underscore not only the risks of a military campaign, but also the uncertainty.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, and the high costs associated with all of this in many different ways.

Great reporting, Zach. Thanks so much for jumping on.

John.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, with us now, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen and CNN global affairs analyst Kim Dozier.

We do have an update on the negotiations with Iran right now. But first, I want to get both your takes on this reporting that Zach just had on General Caine and sort of the delicate walk he's doing to provide the advice that the chair of the Joint Chiefs is supposed to provide.

Kim, first to you.

KIM DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I -- you know, Dan Caine knows that he's got President Trump's respect. So I -- I'm sure he feels the responsibility of trying to use that path to Donald Trump's mind, to put some reality out there, that an attack on Iran is something that could unleash a terrible conflagration and that, you know, we had troops on the ground in Afghanistan for 20 years and couldn't defeat the Taliban. Iran is a much tougher adversary. And a single strike or some strikes off the coast of Iran, they're not going to produce the kind of change that Trump has signaled he wants.

BERMAN: And, Peter, to you. Is General Caine right in our reporting that hitting Iran, getting the results you want, not so easy?

PETER BERGEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, he's, of course, just doing his job, which is to point out all the downside possibilities of the multiple possible operations that might happen. And, you know, during Vietnam, Lyndon Johnson was poorly served by his top generals. H.R. McMaster, Trump's national security advisor in the first term, wrote a whole book about it, essentially saying that it was a dereliction of duty.

So, you know, the Pentagon is keenly aware that they have a responsibility to offer all the possible downsides of any military operation. And I think it is an important point. Look, the day after regime change, or even decapitation, which may not get everybody in the regime, what comes next. Reza Pahlavi, who's a sort of -- you know, the son of the shah, has not been in Iran for almost half a century. And the United States has had a pretty poor record of picking the next person after a regime has been changed.

BERMAN: Yes, going back to the 1950s, in this case, with the Pahlavi family.

I do want to read to you the new reporting from CNN here. We're getting some statements from Iranian officials. A spokesperson for the foreign ministry on the status of these investigations. Sorry, the status of these discussions, negotiations. The spokesperson said they're being carried out with great seriousness and that they're conducted in a very intense and serious matter. "What I can tell you, in both the nuclear field and the issue of sanctions relief, very important and practical proposals and initiatives were presented in both delegations pursued the discussions with great seriousness."

So, great seriousness, Kim. I don't know if there's a translation that you can give us what that actually means. Do the Iranians think they actually have anything to offer that could keep them from getting attacked right now?

DOZIER: The Iranians are following their age old playbook of continuing to talk for as long as they can talk, to push off any sort of military action. You also had the Omani foreign minister tweeting that they exchanged creative and positive ideas. None of this sounds like serious concessions on the points that the U.S. is asking for, apparently including giving up all of its refined nuclear material, which is something that Iran is just not likely to do in any imagined situation.

So, they are going to keep trying to draw this out. And I think eventually President Trump is going to lose patience with that.

BERMAN: More reporting, this from Paula Hancocks, Peter, "American negotiators insisted on limiting Iran's enrichment of uranium and maintaining long-term verification of nuclear program." That's during the talks that happened today.

If Iran agreed to both of those things, would that be enough, do you think, to prevent a U.S. attack?

BERGEN: Well, the Trump administration has said a variety of different things on this point. But there would be certainly irony here if we kind of got back to the 2015 Obama deal, where enrichment was limited to around 3.5 percent. You need 90 percent for a nuclear weapon. You know, we've heard from the Trump administration there will be no

sunset clauses, won't (ph) be one part of this agreement potentially. Weve heard from them no enrichment at all. Not clear. The Iranians seem to want to keep some kind of enrichment for so-called medical purposes.

So, you know, I'm -- anyway, the bottom line is, we might be back to something that looks a little bit like the 2015 agreement that the Trump administration pulled out of in 2018, which would be enormously ironic.

[09:35:10]

The one -- one of -- the big thing here, I think, is the ballistic missile issue, which goes back to General Cohen's warnings. Iranian ballistic missiles could hit anywhere in the Middle East, including Israel. They, you know, attacked al-Udeid Air Force Base in June after the nuclear missile -- nuclear attacks against Iran. So, you know, I think the ballistic missiles are another big sticking point, which Iran is very reluctant to give up because they see it as their -- really their last ability to deter attacks against them.

BERMAN: Yes, it's unclear how much the United States is asking for that in this discussion, pushing the idea of the missile program. But maybe. I mean Secretary of State Marco Rubio was talking about it openly last night. You know, Kim, you talk about the Iranian methods of trying to delay these discussions or prolong them as much as possible. Do you think they feel at this point that a strike is inevitable?

DOZIER: Well, just one thing on the ballistic missiles. Limiting the range and the number is something that's definitely on the U.S. negotiators' list of must dos.

You see the Iranian regime taking steps to prepare militarily, but also there's reporting out of the Middle East that the ayatollah has worked on a succession plan so that if he gets attacked there will be someone to step into the breach. The problem is, you know, it is one thing attacking Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders and Iranian police, security forces, et cetera. If the U.S. chooses to go after a religious leader who's also a political leader, then you risk declaring war on Shiite Islam. That is how many Iranians will see it, certainly enough to kick off the kind of insurgency that would plague any government that the U.S. would like to take power.

BERMAN: Peter Bergen, Kim Dozier, thank you so much for being with us. This is the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since 2002, 2003. A lot of assets there. So, we'll see how and if they are used. Appreciate it.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Ahead, Bill Gates is apologizing. His new message to the staff at his foundation about his ties with Jeffrey Epstein. The reporter who broke this -- broke this news joins us.

And a wild heist caught on camera. An 18-wheeler in the middle of the street, boxed in, and then robbed. What were the thieves after?

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[09:42:04]

BERMAN: Today, Vice President J.D. Vance heads to Wisconsin, one of the swingiest of swing states. And on the occasion a gift from the polling gods, polls not just from Wisconsin, a key swing state, but Pennsylvania as well.

With us chief data analyst and prophet of the polling gods, Harry Enten.

Thank you very much.

So, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, we have brand new numbers. Let's talk about what they're saying about the president.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: You know, as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go, so go the nation. And right now the president is going down, going down like Sonny Liston. What are we talking about here? OK, Trump's net approval rating. Key swing states. In Wisconsin, down, down, negative ten points. Of course he won that state by about a point back in 2024.

How about Pennsylvania? Down, down to negative 15 points on the net approval rating in Pennsylvania, a state he won in 2016 and 2024. Lost in 2020.

As I said, as go Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, so goes the nation. In this case, Donald Trump is going down in both of them.

BERMAN: The last three elections, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were basically 50/50 states.

ENTEN: You got it.

BERMAN: So, when you see numbers like this, that's actually a fairly big deficit for the president there.

What are these states saying about the president on the economy?

ENTEN: Yes, OK, what is driving these numbers? What is driving President Trump down? It's his handling of the economy. It's this thing that we're seeing nationally impacting in the key swing states. Because just take a look here. OK, Trump and the economy, swing state voters. Pennsylvania, Trump's economic disapproval rating, 56 percent. That doesn't work for Republicans. That doesn't work for Donald Trump either. How about in Wisconsin, say Trump's policies raise inflation. Again, you got the majority, 53 percent. These numbers tracking very closely with how those voters feel overall in those two key swing states. And again, Donald Trump underwater. His economic disapproval, well more than a majority at this point. And, you know, look at this, say Trump's policies raise inflation, 53

percent. How do you work with that if you're Donald Trump or Republican?

BERMAN: Now in Pennsylvania, more than Wisconsin, there are some competitive House races. Pennsylvania could be really key in determining control of the House nationally. What are we seeing there?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. So, you know, we talk about Donald Trump, but the question is always, does that make its way down ballot. Does that, in fact, impact the House races? In Pennsylvania, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, just take a look here. OK, U.S. House margins in Pennsylvania. 2024 results look very similar to how they voted for president. Republicans won it by two points. But look at this, it's a different world. It's a different world. Look at this, the 2026 polling, Democrats ahead by six points on the generic ballot in the great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. So, what we're seeing up top is funneling its way down ballot. And these are the types of numbers that have to make Democrats jump for joy, because these are the types of numbers that suggest that they are, in fact, going to take back the House come November.

BERMAN: Have you ever pulled a muscle talking about polling?

ENTEN: I have never pulled a muscle. This is the most exercise I ever get.

BERMAN: OK. Let's talk about what the prediction markets are saying about these two states. There are governors races in both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

[09:45:02]

What are some of the predictions?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. The prediction markets, the Kalshi prediction markets, what do they say? They say Democrats are more than likely not to win both of them. Wisconsin looks like they'll retain it there, 70 percent chance. Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, of course, very likely going to be a 2028 Democratic candidate for president. Looks like he's going to win there as well, 91 percent chance. These are the types of numbers that you want to launch off for if you're going to run for president.

BERMAN: Yes. In Wisconsin it's more about winning period. In Pennsylvania, for Josh Shapiro, he very much wants to run up the score.

ENTEN: You got it exactly right.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much for that.

A lot of news this morning. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:50:06] BOLDUAN: There are new details from "The Wall Street Journal" on the growing fallout from Jeffrey Epstein. "The Journal" is now reporting that Bill Gates is apologizing over his ties to the convicted sex trafficker. According to a recording of a town hall reviewed by "The Journal," the Microsoft co-founder told staffers at the Gates Foundation his relationship with Epstein was a, quote, "huge mistake." He also admitted to having two affairs. The apology comes after you might recall this interview where Gates said that he was foolish for spending time with Epstein.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL GATES, CO-FOUNDER, MICROSOFT: It just reminds me, you know, every minute I spent with him, I regret, and I, you know, apologize that I did that. It's factually true that I was only at dinners. You know, I never went to the island. I never met any women. And so, you know, the more that comes out, the more clear it will be that, although the time was a mistake, it had nothing to do with that kind of behavior.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Let's talk more about this new reporting. Joining us right now is Emily Glazer with "The Wall Street Journal," who broke this story.

Thanks for joining us, Emily.

Your reporting -- and the articles is well -- great to -- important to read. You're reporting that bill Gates, he apologized to the staff, and this was in this town hall. And in his apology, he admitted that he made mistakes. Is it clear what mistakes that he's admitting to?

EMILY GLAZER, "THE WALL STREET JOURNAL": Indeed. Kate. We have been reporting on this for about five years at "The Wall Street Journal." He acknowledged having two affairs with Russian women that Epstein later learned of and tried to use to Epstein's advantage. Bill Gates gave a full timeline of starting with meeting Epstein in 2011, and he said that he stopped contact in 2014. And then, of course, involving Gates Foundation employees. They had worked on a donor advised fund for years, and a number of executives at the Gates Foundation had gone and met with Epstein multiple times. So, he apologized to them and even acknowledged that his now ex-wife, Melinda French Gates, was right when she said that Epstein was no good back in 2013. So, there was quite a bit he got into in this town hall.

BOLDUAN: And add to that your reporting is that Gates also spoke about some of the photos that we have all seen where he is linked -- that are linked -- that he -- that Gates is in that are linked to Jeffrey Epstein. What did he say about those?

GLAZER: Indeed. This was the first time that I've heard him speak really candidly and go into a lot of detail about his -- the nature of his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. He spoke with a number of Gates Foundation employees at their headquarters and was asked about this. It turns -- what he says is that these were Epstein's assistants that were not involved in meetings he had with Epstein, but Epstein would ask him to take photographs afterwards with the women. So, that is what he is saying. He said he didn't associate with them. He didn't really talk to them.

I will add that in the past Bill Gates said there were no women present at any of his meetings. So, you know, some people walked away from this feeling like he was genuine and honest. Others that I talked to said they feel like he's lied about his ties to Epstein over the years and now the DOJ's Epstein files are forcing him to talk about a lot of these matters that have become public.

BOLDUAN: Yes. And Gates also, you spoke a little bit about it. I want to dive a little deeper into this aspect of it. That he said he -- he himself, Gates, said he failed to properly check Epstein's background in 2011, only that he was aware of some 18-month thing that had -- that had limited Epstein's travel. And that he continued to meet with Epstein even after, as you mentioned, his then wife voiced concerns about Epstein. Does he -- has he further explained why he continued hanging out with Epstein?

GLAZER: It isn't totally clear. And that 18-month thing is that Jeffrey Epstein was a registered sex offender starting in 2008. Bill Gates has many businesses, troves of people, and he kind of got caught in Epstein's web. There's no doubt about it. He's acknowledging that and his bad judgment. He said that Epstein had access to Wall Street billionaires, and that was really enticing for him if they set up this big fund and could get more people, you know, giving money and geared toward philanthropy. Bill Gates is one of the biggest philanthropists in the world. He's one of the wealthiest people in the world.

But there were a lot of signs that he's now saying should have been clear in retrospect. And I think that these DOJ Epstein files are really pushing him to speak out. I will add that we learned in our reporting that the Gates Foundation had had a town hall with their CEO a couple weeks prior, and it did get emotional and intense when there were questions about Jeffrey Epstein asked. And Bill Gates says in this town hall on Tuesday that it has cast a cloud over the philanthropy and that it has had a reputational impact.

BOLDUAN: Yes, that's -- and that's what lingers here is big questions about what it means for Bill Gates, his foundation and his involvement in that foundation.

[09:55:08]

Emily, thank you for bringing your reporting to us.

Emily Glazer of "The Wall Street Journal."

John.

BERMAN: In Arizona, investigators return to Nancy Guthrie's home nearly a month after the 84-year-old disappeared. At least six FBI agents combed the property for clues. This is the most visible activity in the case in days, and comes after "Today" show host Savannah Guthrie announced a $1 million reward for information leading to her mother's whereabouts. That led to a surge of what officials are calling credible new tips in the case.

This morning, two men are in custody after police say they robbed a truck stopped on a busy Los Angeles intersection. The two vehicles blocked the truck as it approached a stoplight. You can really see the intrigue wafting over the crime scene there. One suspect cut the lock on the trailer and grabbed thousands of dollars' worth of computer equipment. The men were arrested a short time later while trying to get on the freeway.

And cow on the lam. Now, this happened on a Florida highway. And the cow, as you can see, was captured, or perhaps we should say wrangled, lassoed by its owner and a well-known cowboy, apparently. The Collier County Sheriff's Office posted the video with the unfortunate caption, "keep things mooo-ving."

BOLDUAN: I'm just so excited you had to read that.

BERMAN: Yes, I wasn't. I wasn't. I braced myself. I grated (ph) my loins for that (INAUDIBLE) right there.

BOLDUAN: I saw that. I saw the pain. I saw the pain.

Oh, this just made my day.

BERMAN: Thank you for joining us. This has been CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

BOLDUAN: "THE SITUATION ROOM," it's up next.

BERMAN: Yes, it is.

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