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Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) is Interviewed about Iran; Texas Senate Primary Numbers; Frustration at OpenAI. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired March 04, 2026 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[09:32:39]

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Opening bell on Wall Street ringing just moments ago. Investors buckling up for another wild day for sure with all eyes and all markets really looking and watching the widening conflict in the Middle East to see what happens and where this goes.

Oil markets have been surging since the U.S. and Israel launched the operation over the weekend. And the White House is also now saying that it's going to make moves to try and limit the impact of the war on oil markets and the trickledown effect on gas prices.

President Trump announced that he is ordering the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to provide insurance and guarantees for ships traveling through the Persian Gulf, and he said that he would direct the U.S. Navy to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz if necessary. And to say that that strait is critical is an understatement. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most vital shipping lanes. And we're going to show you here on the map. At its most narrow point, it's about 21 miles wide, a pinch point that's been effectively reduced to a trickle in terms of the traffic. About one- fifth of daily global oil production passes through the strait every day. That's about 20 million barrels of oil.

We're going to show you how that oil then makes its way to the rest of the world. Estimates are that 84 percent of crude oil, 83 percent of liquefied natural gas that moved through the strait in 2024, that went to Asian markets. And of that, about 38 percent of crude went to China alone. Just showing how critical this piece of -- piece of the world is.

Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, thank you, Kate.

Just this morning, Joint Chiefs Chairman General Dan Caine says the U.S. war effort is going to expand deeper into Iranian territory now. And Defense Secretary Hegseth says the U.S. and Israel, the two most powerful air forces in the world, he says, will have, quote, "complete control of Iranian airspace."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: The Iranian air force is no more. Built for 1996. Destroyed in 2026. The Iranian navy rests at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. For days in, we have only just begun to fight.

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[09:35:02]

SIDNER: Joining me now, Congressman Eric Swalwell, member of the House Judiciary and Homeland Security Committees.

Thank you for being here.

You just heard from Hegseth. On the one hand he says that the Iranian navy is at the bottom of the sea, that the Iranian air force has been destroyed. Two of the objectives he laid out yesterday. But then he says this war has only just begun four days in. Is this a contradiction to you?

REP. ERIC SWALWELL (D-CA): It is. And, Sara, you've covered California for a long time. You know, in the Iranian diaspora, we've got the largest one in California. Of course, they have big hopes and dreams for their homeland, where women never could drive freely or dress the way that they wanted or vote or participate. So, to see a brutal regime taken down, of course that brings them hope.

My job in Congress is to make sure that there is a plan. And it looks like right now there's not a plan. And if you look at Donald Trump and anything he's ever worked on, like health care, where he said there was a concept of a plan, we don't even have a concept of a plan here. And he was asked, the president, the other day about his plan for Iran, and he referenced his ballroom and the golden drapes that he was going to be bringing for it.

So, if you just think about that for a second, the president of the United States has more planning put in place for drapes and a new ballroom in the East Wing than he does for a war in the Middle East.

SIDNER: Let me ask you about something Hegseth also said and what retired Brigadier General Steve Anderson responded to. He talked about the fact that they have all the weapons, Hegseth, that they need and can sustain this as long as they need to. Here is what Brigadier General Anderson said about that.

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BRIG. GEN. STEVE ANDERSON, U.S. ARMY (RET.): That's what he's saying, that we're going to take advantage of our air superiority, our ability to loiter over targets and use other type of munitions. In fact, the secretary of defense even talked about using dumb bombs, gravity-based bombs, and not laser guided bombs. But we're running out of -- and it was very clear to me when he made some reference to using gravity bombs like that.

(END VIDEO CLIP) SIDNER: So, he talked about running out of precision munitions. What is your big concern, knowing that we still don't know the answer to this, but knowing that there have been -- there was an attack on a school that that killed schoolchildren. And now he's saying that it appears that the U.S. is running out of precision munitions. What does that mean to you?

SWALWELL: So, of course, well, to me, it means that we risk the lives of American soldiers who are in the region if we cannot defend them from Iranian drones that continue to fly into our bases all over the region. Two, of course, I worry about innocent Iranians, and I worry about other partners of ours, you know, like Israel in the region who could be affected.

And this is what I mean when I say, when you don't have a plan, the Strait of Hormuz is closed and oil prices go up for everyone, including Californians. When you don't have a plan, the slain leaders son in Iran makes his own plans to take over. And so you would see just the continuation of a brutal regime. When you don't have a plan, you have Americans stranded in the region. And I'm fielding phone calls from Californians who are stuck in Dubai, who are stuck in Doha, who have no plan or no government response that would get them home. And so, this is why you have to have some planning in place, because we have a long history, a long history, Sara, 75 plus years of being in the region trying to change regimes and always failing.

SIDNER: The Israelis have been clear that they will continue to go after and kill, eliminate, as they put it, anyone who tries to take the role of supreme leader. And I'd like to get your thoughts on that if you -- when you hear that from the Israelis, whether or not you think that is a legal tactic, whether it follows international law or not, and if you think the United States should be a part of that as well.

SWALWELL: Well, what I can say is, what we know about true regime change and democracy being brought to any country in the world is it doesn't come from bombs being dropped from the sky. Whether it's from Israel or the United States. It comes brick by brick within Iran. And that has to come from the Iranian people. And there's not enough bombs that we can drop to change what the sentiment is on the ground and their own ability to build their own democracy. And so that's why I'm just wondering, like, what are we doing here? What was the justification and the imminent threat to the United States that warranted us putting so much of an effort and declaring war on Iran? And what is the long-term plan here?

[09:40:00]

Americans, you know, we are optimistic people. We, of course, will support, you know, our military. But we want to know, are you just putting them in harm's way and are we repeating mistakes that we've made over the past 75 years?

SIDNER: Representative Eric Swalwell, thank you for joining us on this day.

SWALWELL: My pleasure. Thank you.

SIDNER: John.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, the one number out of the Texas primary overnight that has the Democrats most excited this morning.

And they just want a big new artificial intelligence deal with the Pentagon, so why aren't some people at OpenAI smiling?

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[09:45:00]

BERMAN: All right, just in from Texas, this is interesting, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett conceded to James Talarico in the Democratic Senate primary there. Notable because it was a hotly contested race, and there were some questions about voting there. But she has now conceded, meaning he has a clear path all the way to November.

Not so clear on the Republican side, where there is a runoff between Attorney General Ken Paxton and the incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn. So, we'll see over the next three months who wins there.

With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.

But we're not focused on who's running.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: No. No.

BERMAN: That might not be the most important thing here. The most important thing here might be who's voting.

ENTEN: Who is voting. And I would say the word to describe it for Democrats, tremendous. Tremendous turnout. I mean, woof. Texas Democratic Senate primary turnout, the highest ever. The highest ever was this primary. We're already up to 2.3 million. And that's only with 92 percent of the estimated vote. And that will climb ever higher. The 2000's average was less than a million. They've more than doubled the average turnout for Texas Senate Democratic primaries that Democrats came out and voted. This beats the old record, which was 2.2 million, and that was in a presidential primary year between Obama and Clinton. And this beat it. Democrats really enthusiastic. As I said, the word to describe this is tremendous.

BERMAN: I can't even believe it beat 2008. People, if you can remember back that far, that was such an important race in Texas. There's so much focus. And there was still more people voting in this one than that one in 2008. How about as a share of the people who voted overall?

ENTEN: It's not just that this 2.3 million is such a large portion, the largest ever for a Texas Senate Democratic primary, it's that more people voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican primary. Look at this, share of Texas midterm primary ballots. Look at this, the 2000's average. If you look at the 2000s, on average you see this, Republicans outvote Democrats. More people choose the Republican ballot than the Democratic ballot in midterm primaries by 60 percent to 40 percent. A margin of three to two.

But look, so far, Democrats, more people are actually choosing the Democratic ballot. This is extremely, extremely unusual. 51 percent to 49 percent. And so far there have actually been more of the Republican ballots estimated to be counted than Democrats. So, this margin may climb ever higher.

And I will note that this was the last -- this is the first time, the first time Democrats outvoted Republicans in a midterm primary season in Texas since 2002. So, a lot of Democrats voting, and more Democrats voting than Republicans. As I said, tremendous for Democrats.

BERMAN: And you said that has potential national implications, because when something like this happens, it usually means the party that benefits.

ENTEN: Every single midterm since 2006, the party that votes more in primaries goes on to win the House of Representatives. And right now, in Texas, a traditionally red state, more Democrats are voting. You transition that nationally, it's very likely that more Democrats will be voting than Republicans in primaries.

BERMAN: All right, let's talk about the Republican runoff between the incumbent senator, John Cornyn, and Ken Paxton. They are headed to a runoff three months from now. Right now, as we're still counting, Cornyn has most votes. But what are the prediction markets saying?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. You know, the two of them are going to a runoff, Paxton, Cornyn. What do the prediction markets say, Kalshi prediction market, in terms of who is going to actually win that runoff. And this is just such a mess. A phrase I often use, what a dumpster fire. I mean this is as close as you basically can get, 54 percent chance for Ken Paxton despite, at this point, having fewer votes in the initial round than John Cornyn, the incumbent, a 44 percent chance. But really, this is as close as it can be. This is as close as can be. It's going to be a knock out, drag out fight over the next few months that ultimately may come down to --

BERMAN: One man.

ENTEN: One man.

BERMAN: Donald Trump.

ENTEN: Right, Donald John Trump. Who he gets behind, that can make the difference. But at this point, I mean, these two are going to be going together like old boxers. And it could very much help the Democrats' chance in the fall if, in fact, there's some really bad blood left over.

BERMAN: OK, talk to me about that. If it helps the Democratic chances, what does that do to the overall odds in the U.S. Senate?

ENTEN: Yes, overall odds of the U.S. Senate. This is just a segment which is just great news for Democrats. And what are we talking about here? I mean, this is, I think, the biggest change that we have seen in the national picture, which was, all along we thought that the Democrats would win back the House of Representatives. That was the most likely possibility. But at this point, look at this. Look at the change in odds from a year ago, the chance of winning in the Senate. Republicans had an 81 percent chance a year ago. Look at this. It has fallen through the floor. Fallen through the floor. Now it's just a 56 percent chance. Democrats chances, way up to a 44 percent chance. There is a real fight on their hands, Republicans have, not just for the House, which they're likely to lose, but for the Senate as well.

BERMAN: That is a big change. Harry Enten, great to have you back. Thank you very much.

ENTEN: And you're tremendous.

BERMAN: A lot of news. We'll be right back.

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[09:54:24]

SIDNER: New this morning, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said several semi-autonomous systems with artificial intelligence aspects have been used on the battlefield in Iran this week. Those comments coming just as we are learning about frustration growing inside of OpenAI after the company struck a deal with the Pentagon to use its A.I. models in classified systems.

CNN's Hadas Gold joining me now with new reporting on this.

What have you learned?

HADAS GOLD, CNN MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Yes, so, the same day the Pentagon blacklisted the A.I. company Anthropic for refusing to bend on its safety guardrails, OpenAI swooped in and signed its own deal with the Pentagon. OpenAI believes that this contract does adhere to those same safety guardrails, but there's a lot of debate about this.

[09:55:03]

And OpenAI employees, both privately and publicly, have been expressing a lot of frustration over how OpenAI handled this.

I spoke to current employees, many of them who said they really respect Anthropic for standing up to the Pentagon. They are frustrated, though, that Anthropic is being seen as a hero in all of this, while OpenAI is being so heavily criticized.

I spoke to one employee who said they're frustrated with how it was perceived, how it was communicated with -- and what the narrative has become. Some have even posted publicly on social media. One research scientist writing, "I personally don't think that this deal was worth it."

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has acknowledged some of what he says were kind of -- they failed in terms of how they communicated on this. He posted on X that "these issues are super complex, demand clear communication. We were genuinely trying to de-escalate things and avoid a much worse outcome, but I think it just looked opportunistic and sloppy."

Yesterday, Sam Altman held a big meeting, an all hands meeting, at OpenAI with all employees, where he fielded questions on this, and he said that the whole, you know, public discourse about it has been really painful.

One, though, interesting thing he said is he said he felt a responsibility that OpenAI would be willing to work with the Pentagon, in part because hopefully, he says, "we will have the best models that will encourage the government to be willing to work with us, even if our safety stack annoys them, or put some limits or something else. But there will be at least one other actor, which I assume will be Elon Musk's xAI, which effectively will say, we'll do whatever you want." Essentially saying, you at least want us who believe in safety to work with the Pentagon, otherwise somebody else, who's not going to have any safety guardrails, will swoop in.

SIDNER: It's interesting, though, because they must be doing something that Anthropic is not doing in order for them to get this deal.

GOLD: It's possible. Or it's also just possibly an issue of politics and personalities. Dario Amodei, the CEO of Anthropic, has long sort of clashed with the administration. The administration has called Anthropic "woke." It's also possible that it's just about personality.

SIDNER: We will have to wait and see how this all shakes out. Always interesting when you come on. Thank you so much, Hadas. Appreciate it.

BOLDUAN: And thank you all so much for joining us today. Another very busy day. This is CNN NEWS CENTRAL. "THE SITUATION ROOM" is up next.

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