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Russia Giving Iran Advice; Iran Laying Minds in Strait of Hormuz; Inflation Held Firm in February; Kevin O'Leary is Interviewed about Inflation, Oil and the Strait of Hormuz; Robert Pape is Interviewed about Iran; U.S. Intel Warns of Retaliation from Iran. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired March 11, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: That have been hit. Thailand's ministry of transport says 20 crew members have been rescued but three at this point remain unaccounted for.

We can show you the rough location of these three vessels inside the gulf. You can see right there, the area where we believe that Thai vessel is on fire.

This stretch of waterway is just 20 miles wide. The shipping lane itself is only two miles wide. This is one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world. About 20 million barrels a day pass through that in normal times. Now, of course, is not normal times. It has ground to a near halt with almost no oil getting through.

This morning, we also have a CNN exclusive. According to a western intelligence official, Russia is providing Iran with advanced drone tactics it has learned from its war with Ukraine. That's to provide Tehran with intelligence to attack U.S. assets and gulf nation's targets.

Let's get to CNN's Nick Paton Walsh.

Nick, this is your exclusive reporting. What have you learned?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it is an extraordinary and troubling development here. Now, I understand from a western intelligence official that the skills, the targeting strategies that Russia has learned in its many years of using these one-way attack Shahed drones against Ukraine, that that information is being passed to Iran to assist the attacks you've been talking about, there were two injured, four injured in Dubai. Drones suggested as being the issue there. This official telling me what was more general support is now getting more concerning, including these targeting strategies.

Now, that is obviously key because, as I said, that's three years' worth of battlefield experience. Now, the official didn't go into the detail of the strategies, but we know, I've seen it myself, these Shahed drones often come in waves, of dozens sometimes. Ukraine can be subjected to 1,000 in one night. They come together. They change direction. They move in groups. They appear to be heading one way then do something else. They change altitude. They're learning every single week new ways to defeat Ukraine's increasingly sophisticated and inventive air defenses.

They say there's an innovation cycle on the Ukrainian battlefield of just six weeks. That's how fast it is for something to become ultimately out of date or be put into play. So, this is a key sign, firstly, that we -- maybe the reason why we are seeing these drone attacks against the gulf nations here and in the Hormuz strait as well, becoming unexpectedly successful of getting through and also to the commitment clearly that Vladimir Putin has if, according to this western official, his forces have to assist Iran in this fight. This is real time expertise, real knowledge being transferred to the Iranians, this official tells me.

I was also told, though, about the increased change of nature of the threat in the Strait of Hormuz. They are particularly concerned about the use of mines, and also potentially about the use of low technology fishing boats, dhows (ph), to potentially target the carrier strike groups that are there. A lot fast moving here.

But this Russian tactical knowledge, so key probably to Iran and the limited success, troubling as it has been, they've seen against gulf nations with their drones.

John.

BERMAN: Yes, extraordinary that Russian specific help could help Iranians target Americans in that region at a very time where the president is talking to Vladimir Putin and may be considering easing sanctions on Russian oil.

Nick Paton Walsh, thank you for sharing that exclusive reporting.

Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Really extraordinary.

All right, sources telling CNN, Iran, as you just heard there, laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. And this morning, President Trump is telling them to remove those mines or immediately, as he put it, face the consequences. The U.S. military has already destroyed several Iranian naval ships, including 16 minelayers.

Let's go right to CNN's senior national security reporter Zach Cohen.

This is concerning. We were just hearing the report there from Nick Paton Walsh that involves this. What are you learning?

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yes, Sara, maintain control of the Strait of Hormuz is clearly a defensive strategy and a core part of it for Iran. And U.S. intelligence suggests that they've already started deploying some of its arsenal of mines in that strategic waterway to effectively make it as dangerous as possible for any oil tanker or cargo ship that tries to pass through.

And as we've been saying, the Strait of Hormuz currently is effectively shut down. Tankers are taking on great risk if they do try to pass through the strait. We're told that, as of now, Iran has not taken extensive steps to deploy its arsenal of mines, of which it has around 5,000. They've started laying about a dozen or so in the last few days according to U.S. intelligence assessments. But they still maintain 80 to 90 percent of their mine laying vessels, according to the same U.S. intelligence estimates.

[08:35:00]

That means that they could deploy hundreds of mines if they choose to go that route.

And we've obviously -- this has gotten the attention of President Donald Trump, who issued a warning to Iran that any mines that they have put into the Strait of Hormuz need to be removed immediately, or threatening to -- that they would have to pay the consequences.

It remains unclear, though, what the U.S. strategy and plan to address this current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is, though. As we've been saying it -- sources have been telling me that the situation now is currently too risky for a U.S. Naval escort operation to escort those oil tankers and cargo ships through the strait. We heard chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Caine, acknowledged yesterday that those operations have not yet started. I think there's a lot of oil industry leaders. There are U.S. officials who are questioning why not and are really pushing the administration to do something to break up the logjam.

SIDNER: Yes. Zach, this is just extraordinary, what is happening here. And there are questions as to how this will all shake out. But the markets are volatile and the gas prices are going up and a lot of people in America are really worrying about that as well as the war at large.

Thank you so much for your reporting on that. I do appreciate it.

Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, breaking moments ago, there's new data in showing that inflation held steady last month as consumers are now bracing for more higher prices as the war with Iran continues.

Let's bring in CNN's Vanessa Yurkevich for much more on this.

And again, this is a bit -- this is backward looking, so not including some of the prices we've --

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Right.

BOLDUAN: Especially when it comes to gas, they've just seen jump this week.

YURKEVICH: Right. Unfortunately, this report signals some good news as inflation held

steady. It did not rise. But it almost doesn't matter because we sort of know what's coming with these higher energy prices in March.

But let's just take a look at what happened in February.

BOLDUAN: Yes.

YURKEVICH: So, inflation holding steady on an annual basis, rising 2.4 percent. That's also what we saw in January. Ticking up slightly on the month, 0.3 percent. That was a little bit because we saw some additional pass through from businesses of tariffs to consumers.

BOLDUAN: OK.

YURKEVICH: So, you're talking about home furnishings, things like that. But if you look at inflation over time, obviously we have come down dramatically in the last couple years from those incredibly, incredibly high inflation rates that we saw over the pandemic. But we've kind of been teetering in this 2.4, 2.5, in between two and three percent, trying to get to that two percent target level.

BOLDUAN: Yes.

YURKEVICH: Not quite getting there yet.

In terms of what we're seeing, broad scope, we always look at food, energy and shelter. Food did rise on a monthly basis, up 0.4 percent. We saw prices rise at the grocery store and for takeout.

Also, energy prices, after falling by 1.5 percent in January, rising in February 0.6 percent. But as you mentioned, that's not even taking into account what we're seeing with the war with Iran and increasing oil prices and gas prices.

Shelter, the biggest share of what we pay every single month, again, up 0.2 percent.

Now, what does this mean essentially for the Federal Reserve, which is going to meet next week? Not a lot.

BOLDUAN: OK.

YURKEVICH: Most investors believe that they will hold rates steady at this meeting. Of course, it's good news that inflation did not increased because there was a chance that maybe there would be some discussion about raising rates. But ultimately, this report is in the rear view mirror.

BOLDUAN: Right.

YURKEVICH: March is here. And March is where we're seeing significant increases in energy prices. If you look at the price of gas, just this morning, new numbers out, gas prices up almost 50 percent, up $0.50 or more, $3.58 a gallon for people who are filling up their pump on average. That's up $0.04 from yesterday. And that's up more than $0.60 from a month ago when prices were below $3.

So, good news, we're not seeing that runaway inflation that we're always nervous about.

BOLDUAN: Right.

YURKEVICH: However, looking forward is really where we need to pay our attention just to see what that does for gas prices, energy prices at home, plastics. Think about all the things that oil is used to make. Those are the things we're going to be watching in March.

So, a little bit of a calm before the storm in this report.

BOLDUAN: I think that's a great way of putting it, because so much is changing so quickly.

YURKEVICH: Yes.

BOLDUAN: And we're going to see where we are next month.

It's great to see you, Vanessa. Thank you so much for coming on with that breaking news.

Sara.

SIDNER: All right, thank you to you both.

Joining me now is Kevin O'Leary, chairman of O'Leary Ventures.

First just to this new report. What do you make of this new report? And, of course, it does not factor in what is happening right now in the world with the war in Iran.

KEVIN O'LEARY, CHAIRMAN, O'LEARY VENTURES: Largely irrelevant. This was obviously, as you pointed out, done before the conflict spiked energy prices. So, it's not a good index of where we're at right now. It's helpful in the sense it's backward looking and it shows that during that period, when we didn't have the conflict, inflation stayed steady, which is encouraging. It doesn't give you confidence that the Fed will cut rates, whoever's running it.

[08:40:01]

We're all going to wait for the next data set, and we're all going to wait for how long oil prices are north of $78.

SIDNER: Yes. It's quite a jump.

I want you to listen to Republican Senator Rick Scott, who spoke to our Kate Bolduan just a few minutes ago. He talked about the Strait of Hormuz and what he's learned about it. This is what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. RICK SCOTT (R-FL): I think, right now, it's still a dangerous situation. We have -- with -- there -- it's going to take a while for us to get control over the Strait of Hormuz.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SIDNER: So, about 20 percent, as you know, of the world's oil goes through the strait. If tanker traffic stays disrupted for even a few weeks, what will that mean to everyday citizens and what will that mean to the markets?

O'LEARY: If you -- if you go back in history and look at, you know, when does it really impact. And Rick Scott's a huge advocate of small business. So, he's always concerned about the baseline of entrepreneurs in America that provide over half the jobs. I'm -- the same focus I have. And I talk to the CEOs every day.

We're not going to have an impact on input costs. So, think about energy. It impacts every sector of the economy. All 11. It's the only commodity like that. And so, before it really has an impact, you need gas prices, gasoline prices, north of $3 for at least three months. And so, that's why the market is very volatile now. It's not yet thinking that we're going to have oil prices between -- the danger zone is $90 to $100. You have $90 to $100 oil for three months, you're going to have huge inflation problems, huge input cost increases and, politically, not great for the midterms.

So, that's why the market's looking at this, as I am, saying, OK, how long is this going to go on for and when is the focus going to be on opening up the straits. Because you're right, you have to have those open.

But right now, I would say, and, you know, I'm not for war. I hate it. And everybody should. But this still looks like an excursion as they're calling it. It's going to have to drag out a long time before that situation develops, when we're going to have $100 oil again for an extended period of time.

And so, let's see how the next 14 days play out. Mining the strait. I'm -- even -- whoever is leading, you know, Iran right now is probably thinking that's not a great idea if we want to stop the pounding that we're getting hit with. So, it's a very -- as everybody's pointed out, a fluid situation, but not yet hurting input costs domestically.

SIDNER: Yes. I mean too many of us who have covered war, this certainly looks like war to us.

Some oil industry analysts are skeptical that the strait could fully reopen and production sort of in the region come back online for at least a month. Do -- the White House has, you know, been worried about, as are Americans, higher gas prices, which have gone up and up and up, up $0.50 on the gallon. I mean what could solve the gas price hike in the short term?

O'LEARY: Well, more release of the strategic reserves, but they're not -- they're not -- when oil was very inexpensive, sort of sub $60, we didn't take advantage of that and fill up the reserves. Right now globally, as we speak, we've got basically about 60 to 80 days. If you just shut down oil at -- for everywhere, the world has, on the water and in reserves, about two months of oil. So, every day that we have the strait, 20, 22 percent going through there, shut down, it's drawing down slowly all strategic reserves and the oil that's on the water in tankers. That's part of the reserve, its floating to going somewhere.

So, yes, if this is going to be a prolonged situation, it'll be -- it'll be bad outcome. But 'ill tell you policy wise, what's interesting about this, and most investors have been talking about it in the last 48 hours, all the money we spent globally on alternative energy sources, as a form of insurance in a situation like this, looks like it was wasted. It doesn't -- it hasn't affect -- everything we've done in solar and wind cannot offset a spigot closing on oil. That's number one.

Number two, coming out of this, for the North American administration, or U.S. administration, energy security, energy supply and energy focus on hydrocarbons is going to be extreme because nobody wants to see this again. And I think this is kind of interesting.

And lastly, in talking just again with investors, as a result of this, nobody likes war, we're going to be spending a whole ton of money on new, inexpensive drone technology because the Iranians have proven they can cause a lot of havoc with low cost ordnance, and a ton of money on A.I., because this war is no -- I know we're talking about boots on the ground, but we don't have them yet, it's all been done using technology. Missiles from space or coordinates in space. All kinds of drone technology that's used, and geo locked, and everything else is tech.

[08:45:02]

This is a tech war. And it gives you a kind of an idea of what it would look like if China acted up and they wanted to take out Taiwan. We better get ready. We've got to get ready with more A.I.

SIDNER: Well, they're certainly spending a lot of money on this war, $890 million a day. That is what analysts say.

We will have to see how this all shakes out.

Kevin O'Leary, I do thank you. Appreciate it.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Still ahead for us, a man is pinned under his car in the middle of trying to fix it, and there's video now coming in of the rescue to help him.

And Tilly Norwood, remember the A.I. generated actress and singer, has now -- well, that A.I. has now released a new song about her human side.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BOLDUAN: So, is regime change in Iran an end goal for the Trump administration? As of this morning, that still remains an open question. That is because President Trump has indicated both things at various points, that he is not trying for regime change, but also that he must have personal sign off on whoever is Iran's leader.

[08:50:07]

And messaging from the White House on this still has not gotten any more clear.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REPORTER: Is the ending of this war also contingent on Iran selecting a leader that the president finds acceptable? And if so, how is that not the definition of a regime change war?

KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Look, as President Trump has blatantly and frankly stated, it's obviously within the best interest of the United States and the west to no longer have a radical terrorist in charge of Iran.

We have objectives that we have laid out that the commander in chief wants to see achieved. When they are achieved, then it will ultimately be up to the president to end this operation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Democratic Senator Chris Murphy, after a classified briefing yesterday, came out and said many things, including, though, this, posting to social media that they, the briefers, "confirmed regime change is also not on the list." He means of end goals here.

This brings us to the so-called smart bomb trap. Kind of an illusion in a series of history-based facts looking forward, coming from political scientist Robert Pape on this. Professor Pape joins us now to talk more about this.

Thanks for coming in.

Your take on this has been very, very interesting, but let's start here. You say that the United States is now entering the most dangerous phase in this military campaign so far. Explain why.

ROBERT PAPE, "THE ESCALATION TRAP" SUBSTACK: Thanks for having me on, Kate. For 30 years I have studied air power and escalation. I've taught for the U.S. Air Force for 20 years. I've modeled the bombing of Iran, taking out Fordow, Natanz and regime change. President Trump is up against the weight of history. For over 100 years states have been trying to topple governments with air power alone. And, and I'm choosing my words carefully, it has never worked.

We are now about to enter the most dangerous phase of the escalation trap, as I call it, where initial success with precision weapons, which are tactically effective, and you see, we killed the supreme leader, lead to strategic failure, which then suck us deeper and deeper into a conflict we didn't plan to go deeper and deeper in, and we kept saying we would not. And we are about to enter that phase in the next week or two. This will be the most dangerous moment of the crisis.

BOLDUAN: I had Republican Senator Rick Scott on a short time ago, and I asked him about some more of what the Democratic senators were saying after they left their classified briefing yesterday. And as it was said by Richard Blumenthal, that -- the way he sees it and what he took from the briefing was it seems that the president is on a path toward deploying U.S. troops on the ground in Iran.

Let me play what Rick Scott then, how he responded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Senator, do you think the administration is on a path to sending in ground troops?

SEN. RICK SCOTT (R-FL): That is -- no. I mean this president hates forever wars. This president has no interest in troops on the ground. So, these Democrats who say this, they're being disingenuous.

There is nothing in this briefing that said that we are going to put troops on the ground. There was nothing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: But now getting back to exactly your point and what you've studied and what you've written about, history has shown that an air campaign alone will likely not topple a regime. So, what does that mean the reality is that you think that the Trump administration, the Congress and the public are going to need to face?

PAPE: Well, I -- on Sunday I did a 25 minute video briefing of how this could easily lead to boots on the ground in limited ways at first. You can go to my Substack and they can find it and watch it for free.

The bottom line here is Senator Blumenthal is right, and the issue is, we know that nuclear material, this highly enriched uranium, is dispersing. And as it disperses, it could be going anywhere in Iran and it could also start to go outside of Iran. And this is why it is so terrifying.

So, you don't have to have -- here's the president's decision. Here's the go order for boots. Once you see the dispersal -- and we already have satellite -- civilian satellite imagery of this that I show. Once you see the dispersal, this is getting scary fast. And what are we going to do? Are we just going to let that nuclear material disperse and say, oh, yes, shoot, we couldn't stop it from getting into Israel or Tel Aviv. We're not going to do anything to stop it? No, this is the reality.

And President Trump himself yesterday explained, you can find video of him explaining that we have information of this leaking out, dispersing. This is the key to the whole crisis. It's always been for 25 years, the key.

[08:55:02] And this is the problem of the escalation trap. We are now trapped. And the Iranians are not just lashing back, they're dispersing that material. Lots of bad things could happen here, Kate. And I don't want to go through all those scenarios, but my goodness gracious, once you know that material is dispersing and its real, this is what I think the senators are coming out with ashen faces.

BOLDUAN: Very interesting.

Professor, thank you so much for coming in.

John.

BERMAN: So, in Massachusetts, officers and firefighters rushed to help a man pinned under his car in a parking lot. He'd apparently tried to jack his car up to take a look underneath, but the jack gave way. That's terrifying. They found him trapped and unconscious, but they managed to pull him out. He was taken to the hospital where he was treated for only minor injuries.

A new video featuring A.I. generated actress Tilly Norwood, just in time for the Oscars, seemingly in response to concerns about the rise of A.I. in the entertainment industry.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TILLY NORWOOD, A.I. GENERATED ACTRESS (singing): They say it's not real, that it's fake. But I am still human. Make no mistake. My soul's in every move I take. And you can own the path you make.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Obviously, a lot of controversy when her creators released her, put her out there in the world. And there were reports she might even sign with a talent agency.

Sara.

SIDNER: OK, that was -- all right, the U.S. intelligence community is warning of retaliation on U.S. soil after the killing of Iran's supreme leader. Sources tell CNN a flurry of warnings have gone out to American companies and government agencies in the past week. Authorities are concerned about several things, a, the security around U.S. energy infrastructure, also protecting government targets from cyber threats, and securing the border.

Joining me now is Andrew McCabe, a CNN senior law enforcement analyst and former deputy director of the FBI.

Thank you so much for being here.

Let's start with this. Does the U.S. have what it needs as far as personnel after the DOGE cuts and other firings? Do they have the personnel to deal with this -- what they are calling an increased potential threat? ANDREW MCCABE, CNN SENIOR LAW ENFORCEMENT ANALYST: That's a really

good question, Sara. And I don't know that anybody could answer that. Maybe other than the director of the FBI. We know that Director Patel fired somewhere in the neighborhood of about a dozen experts on the Iranian threat picture in literally the days leading up to the outset of this war with Iran. So, that's a great question.

Typically, those experts are people who have been in the -- in the bureau for years, for decades, and who track this threat picture, this set of actors exclusively. They periodically update bureau leadership with the state of the threat, the Iranian threat, and we are at an absolute peak right now of concern with that threat because of the hostility. So, do we have the right people working that that issue? That's a good question.

SIDNER: Yes, maybe not quantity, but quality. Those who know this like the back of their hand.

One of the biggest concerns mentioned in the bulletins is cyber- attacks. What kind of cyber capabilities do we know that Iran has? And, obviously, it doesn't have to just be Iran right now. It's sort of the, kick them when you're down thing. Other countries that would like to meddle could certainly ramp their attacks up too, correct?

MCCABE: No question. So, when -- so, there -- we have four major adversaries in the cyber sphere, right? We have Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. And Iran is probably the actor that's shown the most development in its cyber capacity in the last ten years. What started with what we call denial of service attacks, where they just basically target a specific website and bury it in traffic, nonsensical traffic that takes the site off the web, that's kind of a low tech rudimentary version of cyber harassment, if you will. But they have gone all the way through that cycle. They are known to be targeting U.S. critical infrastructure, energy structures, the transportation industry, all those things that are crucial for us to protect on any given day, but particularly when our troops are at war.

There is also the fact that once our other adversaries, Russia, China and North Korea, see us having to focus more intently on Iran, it essentially opens up the door of possibility for them. So, you can expect opportunistic attacks from other actors during this heightened threat climate with Iran.

SIDNER: I do want to ask you about this, and this just came in to us. So, I hope I don't throw you here.

[08:59:56]

But Nick Paton Walsh, our reporter who's on the ground in -- near Lebanon, in Israel, he says that he's gotten sources, western intelligence sources, telling him that Russia is now giving Iran