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Strait of Hormuz Open; Oil Prices Drop on News; Michigan's Senate Race. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired April 17, 2026 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:30:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, Brett McGurk on the phone with us.

We do have a new Trump Truth Social post here, yes.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes. So, I'm just going to read this to you. This literally just happened a few seconds ago.

Donald Trump posting this. "The Strat of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100 percent complete. This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated. Thank you for your attention to this matter, President Donald Trump."

So, to you, Alex Plitsas, the CNN national security analyst and director who's here with us, when you see this statement, he's saying that the naval blockade remains in place just for Iran. What does that mean?

ALEX PLITSAS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: So, I think the president is trying to make it clear that he believes the pressure from the naval blockade is kind of what led to this, as well as ensuring that they're not going to get any money coming back from this because they're not going to be able to export any goods. And that's in direct counter to the statement released by the Iranian foreign minister, which began with -- in accordance with the ceasefire in Lebanon. You know, I think there's two ways to look at this. I do think that this is actually a pretty big win for the Iranians if we are actually going to tie this to the Lebanon ceasefire, because they've been asking for that as part of the deal, which was the reason there was a lot of back and forth over the course of a week or two between the mediators and the United States. And that's because they see Hezbollah as one of their elements of national power. All of these proxy forces they have across the region, after the drones, the missiles have been severely degraded as a result of the U.S. military action. So, it's a tacit admission that what these non-state actors they claim are not under their control are actually under their control.

It's also concerning in the sense that the Iranians made the decision to open it up. So, it does demonstrate that they still retain some ability to do so. What I do think is worrisome is if, in fact, this is really tied to

Lebanon, and I know Brett just mentioned he wasn't so sure that was the case, but assuming that it is, right, and that they're serious about that, that ceasefire is tied to Israeli negotiations with the Lebanese governments to disarm Hezbollah, which they have been unable to do for decades. If that process breaks down, does that mean that Iran is going to attempt to close the Straits again in the future as a means of a pressure point to get that process to start, and also to get Israel to stop attacking Hezbollah, which means they would have to live with whatever remnants of Hezbollah are on their border. This is still a very precarious situation.

And last, I think, the question Sara asked was so, you know, important, the previous segment about the oil prices coming down so quickly, because it's largely tied to sentiment, because nothing has moved to date. So, if the president is due some credit on something, it's definitely been his rhetoric to date because the brokers have been largely trading on sentiment. And that's the reason that prices have been kept fairly low.

I'm not sure that that's going to be able to be sustained in the future if the Straits are continued to be held at risk. So, hopefully this leads to a -- to an outcome here, but there is still a lot of risk associated with this potential deal.

SIDNER: I'm just lastly curious about the fact that this is the foreign minister from Iran who has been making the statements. And we haven't heard from the ayatollah. It begs to ask whether or not this is truly exactly what Iran means, including the ayatollah.

PLITSAS: So, I think the foreign minister, you know, he didn't really have a lot of power prior to the previous supreme leader being killed. He was largely seen as a mouthpiece. And that's why Ali Larijani led some of those discussions before he was killed in a targeted strike. And now we see the speaker of the parliament coming in. Ghalibaf is the one who's been the main interlocutor.

So, what he does put out is usually representative of the views inside of Iran. And as Brett has, you know, made clear from his own experience and also just, you know, interpreting the situation here and also what I'm hearing from mediators is there are a number of parties in the background that have to be consulted inside of Iran. There was a lot of communication, security issues, and the new supreme leader, at least according to information that's been released recently, was severely disfigured, potentially wounds to his legs in his face. And that's why he hasn't appeared on camera.

So, not unsurprising that the message came from the foreign minister. It would be, at this point, just based on demonstrated history since the conflict started, as well as past precedent, would be unusual for him to release a statement like that if it hadn't been completely coordinated in the background. So, I do believe the statement is valid.

SIDNER: All right. BERMAN: Yeah. Alex Plitsas, our thanks to you. Our thanks to Brett McGurk, who is also with us by phone watching this all so closely. So many developments just over the last few minutes, Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Absolutely. And while we were talking, markets have now opened on Wall Street just moments ago. And, of course, we're watching, as we were just discussing, oil prices and the reaction in real time after this news.

Let me bring back in David Goldman. He's here with me now.

So, what do you -- what do you see in this? What is the market saying at this moment?

DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: It's not a huge reaction.

BOLDUAN: Right.

GOLDMAN: Look at this. It's less than 0.7 percent for the S&P 500, which is the best way to measure the market. Stocks are doing a little bit better for tech stocks. That's the Nasdaq.

But, look, I mean we've priced this in. The market was already at an all-time high before any of this happened, right, because they had moved on since Trump decided not to go with the full force attack in Iran and started ceasefire talks.

[09:35:03]

So, they've moved on from this.

BOLDUAN: So, this is -- this is -- it's element one.

GOLDMAN: Yes.

BOLDUAN: But then talk about -- then talk about oil prices for us.

GOLDMAN: That's what I was getting to. Right. Look at that, more than 10 percent. So, we haven't seen $80 a barrel oil for weeks and weeks on end. And so, this could be really good news if this holds.

And I think the point that Alex was making earlier is really, really important, that nothing has changed yet, right?

BOLDUAN: Right.

GOLDMAN: Oil hasn't gotten out of the Strait yet. It just opened. And so, a lot is left to be seen about what actually happens. If the president says that Iranian oil isn't going to get out. Well, OK, so how does that work exactly? And, you know, that's a military effort. We still have forces in place to make sure that that blockade holds. And so, this is a sentiment reaction.

BOLDUAN: OK.

GOLDMAN: This is -- this is folks saying we think that this is what's going to happen, but we need to see it actually moving out.

BOLDUAN: And what have -- and everyone's become kind of a shipping expert in the last -- in the last month. What have you learned in terms of how long, if this would remain and the strait would remain completely open, as the foreign minister says, how long it takes for the backlog, how long it really takes for things to get flowing when you take into account the infrastructure damage that has been done to the region.

GOLDMAN: Yes. There's -- this is not turning on a light switch, right? So, the reason why oil has been at a standstill is because the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. OK, so now, if that's open, those tankers can start to move out. Now you got to move tankers in to collect the oil. But there's been no place to put it. So, turning on those production facilities is a small engineering feat that takes weeks to do.

So, yes, they can start to produce oil again. Then it's got to get on the tankers. And then they need to get out. And then they need to go and deliver their oil. And they move as slow as oil tankers. And so, it takes a long time for that to get to its destination.

So, this is a sentiment reaction. This is investors saying, we feel good about this. But notice where it's not. It's not back down to $60, which is where we were before.

BOLDUAN: Before the war.

GOLDMAN: Exactly. It's going to take a while for it to get back down there.

BOLDUAN: And remind everyone what this means -- if this is today, what this means for gas prices tomorrow in the United States.

GOLDMAN: Yes. I mean, OK, so we've already started to see gas prices fall a little bit.

BOLDUAN: Right.

GOLDMAN: From like $4.15 to around $4.08 today. So, gas prices don't fall like a rock. They fall like a feather, OK. And the reason is twofold. First of all, all that gas, all that stuff that we were just talking about, that needs to happen first before the refineries get the gas to refine, and then they ship it off to warehouses, and then it goes on a tanker, and then it goes to your gas station. They are going to take some time to get those prices down.

And the other thing is that if you're a gas station, you make very little profit. So, you're not in a rush to go from $4 to $3. That's why it's going to take a little while.

BOLDUAN: That's really interesting. OK.

We've got a lot more coming in.

David, thank you for jumping back on. Really appreciate it. GOLDMAN: I live here now.

BOLDUAN: You do. Just get comfortable.

Clearly we are tracking all of this breaking news, getting more context, getting more information coming in. We'll be right back.

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[09:42:43]

BERMAN: All right, the breaking news. We just heard from the foreign minister of Iran that the Strait of Hormuz, he says, will be open because of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. Obviously, this is one crisis in the Middle East that's been playing out for seven weeks, but it is a region very much that has been in crisis for years now, especially since the Hamas attack on Israel of October 7th.

How is that having an impact on some of the key congressional races we are seeing around the country?

With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.

And one of the places where we can see this most clearly is in Michigan --

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes.

BERMAN: Where there is an open Senate seat and a very competitive Democratic primary. What are we seeing in that primary right now in terms of the predictions?

ENTEN: Yes. OK. You know, what we're seeing here right now is that the most anti-Israel Democratic candidate, potential nominee, is gaining ground over the last month. Just take a look here, chance to be the Michigan Democratic Senate nominee according to the Kalshi prediction markets. If you look right here, McMorrow is kind of the goldilocks in here in terms of the pro or anti-Israel candidate. Stevens mostly being seen as the most pro-Israel candidate. She's down there at 20 percent a month ago. McMorrow was at 61.

Look what's happened over the last month. McMorrow has fallen to 49 percent. Abdullah al-Sayed, look at this, from 23 percent, who is seen as the most anti-Israel candidate, up to 39 percent.

Now, this is a legitimate race here, folks. This is a legitimate race. And Abdul el-Sayed, who I think at the start of this campaign, a lot of folks weren't quite sure if he would have the muscle to go all the way, at this point is a true competitor with McMorrow ahead, at least according to the Kalshi prediction markets, but below 50 percent. And el-Sayed really closing over the last month since the Iran war has worn on.

BERMAN: As we said, this is a Democratic primary. How might this be emblematic of Democratic positions on Israel writ large? ENTEN: OK. So, you see el-Sayed going up and there's all this

discussion, oh, there's this divide on Israel within the Democratic Party. I'd make the argument there was a divide four years ago. I'm not quite sure there's a divide anymore.

Because just take a look here. OK, Democrats net favorability of Israel, not liberal. Those who are moderate conservative versus those who are liberal. You go back to 2022, those who are not liberal, slightly more likely to hold a net favorable view of Israel than not.

[09:45:02]

Liberals were against Israel by that point, minus 26 points.

Come over to this side of the screen. That divide is, simply put, gone. There is no divide within the Democratic Party when it comes to views towards Israel. The net favorable rating amongst those who are moderate, conservative, not liberal. Look at this, minus 55 points. That's a shift of 58 points in just four years time. Those who are liberal, it's nearly a 50 point shift, minus 74 points. But now moderates and conservatives, as well as liberals, those within the Democratic electorate are united on their views towards Israel. It is unfavorable at this point.

BERMAN: Does age factor into this?

ENTEN: Does age factor into it? OK, age was another divide that we saw. But that age divide is breaking down. Look at this. Democrats net favorability towards Israel. Age 50 plus, back in 2022, it was plus ten points. Those under the age of 50, age 18 to 49, minus 25 points. Come over to this side of the screen. Again, these are just dramatic, dramatic shifts. Look at this, age 50 plus now, minus 54 points. That's a shift of what, Johnny B., that's a shift of 64 points.

BERMAN: Sixty-four points.

ENTEN: Sixty-four points in the negative direction. Age -- under age 50, it's a shift. And normally this would be a huge shift, but it's 45 points as compared to, what, 64 points.

But the bottom line is this, the age divide that there was on Israel within the Democratic Party, that is gone again. Basically, uniformly, negative views towards Israel among Democrats. And that, in my mind, is playing out in Michigan right now as el-Sayed's chances are going up.

BERMAN: Major, major shifts. Harry Enten, thank you very much.

ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.

BERMAN: We've got a lot of breaking news this morning. We'll be right back.

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[09:51:09] BOLDUAN: We do continue to follow this major breaking news.

President Trump is now responding to the announcement from Iran. Iran's foreign minister declaring that the Strait of Hormuz is, quote/unquote, "completely open." President Trump posting this just moments ago. "The Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage. But the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only, until such time as our transaction with Iran is 100 percent complete. This process should go very quickly in that most points are already negotiated."

This moment is a big moment as the Strait of Hormuz, of course, being effectively paralyzed has been a central issue in this war and, well, around the globe.

Look at what we're looking at oil prices right now, down more than 10 percent.

BERMAN: That's a huge drop.

BOLDUAN: Joining us right now is CNN's senior military analyst, Admiral James Stavridis, on the phone. He is the former supreme allied commander of NATO. Also with us is CNN national security analyst Alex Plitsas.

Admiral, your reaction to this announcement and, yes, what do you -- what do you hear?

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS (RET.), CNN SENIOR MILITARY ANALYST (via telephone): Well, certainly it's good. But I'm going to say, a lot of questions are going to still hang out there. And I'll put on my hat as a mariner, a former ship captain. Number one is, well, what about those mines that might or maybe might not be in the water? Where are they? Number two, Iran says its open. Does that mean the normal traffic separation scheme that goes right down the middle of the street, they won't harass traffic there, or do they mean it's open as long as you use our new Iranian track up to the north around Larak Island. Number three, how long is this opening going to unfold in front of us? If U.S. and Iran do get to a deal quickly, all good news. But if you're thinking about reinstating shipping in and out of the gulf, you've got uncertainty about, will this last as long as the original two week U.S. Iran ceasefire, or is this tied to the ten day new Israeli Lebanese ceasefire?

So, Kate, just as usual, a lot of uncertainties here. If I'm a mariner, I'm not exactly firing up my engines. There may be, however, a number of shippers who decide, I'm getting out of the gulf while the getting is good. So, we'll watch over the next 48 hours.

Final thought. Two things to watch. Mines, mine clearance, mine sweeping. Is the U.S. Navy going to go in there and sweep a channel? Watch for that. And number two, how many ships will, if you will, take advantage of this. Watch that big map, that big chart and see if the shipping ramps up.

SIDNER: Thank you so much. We are going to just bring in Alex Plitsas, who has been with us since

the breaking news happened, watching all this.

I'm curious what questions you have when you -- when you listen to what you're hearing there from the admiral about the mining, about the difficulty getting in and out of there, where this is going to be, and just how long this is going to be open. They're saying they're fully open, but then you have President Trump saying, except for Iranian ships.

ALEX PLITSAS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: So, I think, you know, Admiral Stavridis is one of the great strategic thinkers of our time and our generation. So, as usual, he's spot on when it comes to all of this.

The questions I have are related more to strategy and how this plays out in the longer term, as he mentioned, for things to watch. So, in speaking to a number of the shipping executives, some of the bigger carriers are likely going to sit back and watch to see how the transition goes for some of the smaller, more risk-prone shippers.

[09:55:02]

We saw a few Greek carriers who were known to take a little bit more risk, get some boats out. And we'll see what actually ends up happening over the next couple of days, because there's about 60 million barrels that are backed up.

What's also largely, you know, gone unnoticed is, there's a humanitarian crisis with the number of mariners who have been trapped on these boats, have been unable to reach the shorelines. There is, you know, merchant mariner cadets that are trapped on one of these. So, getting those people out in addition to the oil is incredibly important.

The big risk factor I'm hearing from the shipping owners is really lives. They're really worried about crew safety and making sure that's OK. And when we discussed, you know, the insurance program that the U.S. government laid out, as well as potential even military escorts, they said, look, that's all well and good, but that's not going to be enough to guarantee that there's no attacks on the ships, that really is going to require a political settlement.

So, again, the big concern here is the fact that the Iranians at least believe that this is tied to the ceasefire in Lebanon. And if that's the case, again, Israel and Hezbollah have been unable to sort of work this out through the Lebanese government and to disarm Hezbollah, which is what Iran has been trying to protect against. They see that as an instrument of national power.

So, I still don't know that we're completely out of this in the long run.

BERMAN: Admiral Stavridis, if you're still with us. The president's initial social media post on this, which was much shorter than the second one, is interesting. He said, "Iran has just announced that the Strait of Iran is fully open and ready for full passage. Thank you." Now, I don't know if it was a typo or maybe a Freudian slip. But if you step back -- the reason I'm asking it this way, because if you step back, you know, a mile here and look at this last seven weeks, there are those who suggest one of the impacts here long term might be that Iran does have now full control of that Strait, that it has become the Strait of Iran. What do you think of that?

STAVRIDIS: Well, at least he didn't say it's the Strait of Trump. But, look, John, let's face it, you're exactly right, that the concern is, hey, if we allow Iran to kind of open and close the switch and decide whether it's open or not, are we willing sovereignty over to them? That's why I am encouraged by the second posting made, which is that the blockade remains in effect. That's sort of your stopper in a hand (ph) of bridge, if you will.

So, I think probably your point, not the most elegant language in the first post. Second post, hey, we're still on top of this. We're watching it.

But before we get off this conversation, and I know we're just on the hour, it is good news. It is -- it is a step by Iran that could help close the big deal, the negotiation, perhaps as soon as this weekend. As Alex said quite correctly, there's a humanitarian side to this, but there's also a big, strategic play here. Let's hope both sides are indicating they've come a little bit closer as a result of this statement.

BERMAN: Admiral James Stavridis, Alex Plitsas, the big news, both the United States and Iran say the Strait of Hormuz is open. That is a major development progress. Now, watch the airports to see if U.S. negotiators are on the way to Islamabad if talks face to face are about to resume.

SIDNER: All right, thank you so much for joining us. This is CNN NEWS CENTRAL. "THE SITUATION ROOM" is up next.

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