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Bond Market Warning Sign; Texas Tipping Point; Georgia Races Headed for Runoffs; Trump Takes Out GOP Rival; Mark Mazzetti is Interviewed about Ahmadinejad Plan; Dr. Deb Houry is Interviewed about the Ebola Outbreak. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired May 20, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:31:51]

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: You know what -- you know what is exciting? The bond market. And you know who makes it more exciting? Dave does. Just bear with me. The bond market is once again flashing warning signs about the U.S. economy. Yesterday, the 30-year treasury yield hit its highest level in 19 years.

What does this all mean? What am I talking about? Why am I talking about it? It's because of this guy. David Goldman is here.

Make it interesting, my friend.

DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR REPORTER: All right. Well, we got props. I'm like the carrot top of CNN. So, we have --

BOLDUAN: And so much more.

GOLDMAN: And so much more. We have the bond market. And, you know, we don't think about this a lot. We talk about the stock market.

BOLDUAN: Yes.

GOLDMAN: But actually, the bond market is really important. I'm going to explain why.

So, there is a loan that basically you give to the government and you get an interest rate back after the maturity rate. So, what is happening in the bond market right now? Well, there's a lot that's going on because we've got, you know, the cost of the war and you've got all the debt that you need to finance and you've got, you know, oil prices and, you know, maybe a rate hike. And then you've got the amazing amount of borrowing for A.I. And then you have all of that consumer spending, thank you for helping me, that's weighing down all of this. And so, prices are falling like a rock right now. And that sends the yield higher. And this is a problem because the government needs to finance its debt with that yield. Companies need to pay more. That eats into their profits. And that weighs on stock prices, which has fallen the last three days. And the consumer loans that we pay, they're all pegged to this yield. And so, you have mortgage rates, auto loans, you have credit card rates, all of those are higher because of all the stuff that's happening in the economy.

BOLDUAN: That's why people say when the bond market reacts, that's when change really happens.

GOLDMAN: Well, this is right. I mean, so we saw this last year when President Trump said the bond market was getting kind of yippy was his word. That was because tariffs were on this side of the scale, weighing down the prices. Those yields started going higher. He understood that that could be really bad, not just for the government, but also for you and me.

BOLDUAN: So, when you hit, what was it, a 19-year high, is that what I just said?

GOLDMAN: The 30-year yield hit a 19-year high. What happened 19 years ago? The great recession. That's not a great comparison.

BOLDUAN: Never is. You can start moving some of that onto the other side.

GOLDMAN: Yes, we'll move --

BOLDUAN: If it could only be that easy. And today -- and this concludes today's Dave talk.

GOLDMAN: Yes, with props.

BOLDUAN: Thank you so much.

J.B.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I feel like we're going to have to have an abacus here now to like match that. I mean, if we're doing old- fashioned-y props, come on. No one told me that.

BOLDUAN: And Harry Enten probably owns an abacus. You'd be the one man that does.

GOLDMAN: A hundred percent.

BOLDUAN: Right?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Maybe.

BERMAN: All right, we will use this abacus to explain what's happening in Texas, where President Trump just endorsed Attorney General Ken Paxton in the hotly contested Senate runoff against Republican incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Ken Paxton now seen as the favorite, the favorite to win the primary, but not the favorite among some of the Republican establishment who think this actually reduces Republicans' chances to hang on to the seat.

[08:35:08]

With us now, the aforementioned chief abacus analyst, Harry Enten. All right, Harry, so look, President Trump has enormous -- a really

successful record at picking Republicans to win in Republican primaries.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: After that, it's a little bit of a different story. Why are some Republicans concerned about Attorney General ken Paxton, if he is the Republican nominee?

ENTEN: It's, simply put, they're looking at the numbers. They are looking at the numbers. And the idea that Democrats can't win in Texas. I want to put that to rest. They could very well do it. James Talarico could very well win in Texas.

And I want to use a comparison point with 2018, because there was all this talk about Beto O'Rourke, right? Oh, could he beat Ted Cruz? He could beat Ted Cruz. The numbers at this point in that campaign, simply put, did not support that conclusion. But the numbers at this point absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win.

So, take a look, Texas Senate polls in May of the election year. When you matched up O'Rourke, Beto O'Rourke versus Ted Cruz, Ted Cruz was up by seven points. He was clearly ahead. But look at the polling average now when you max up Ken Paxton versus James Talarico, it's actually Talarico that's ahead by four points.

And Johnny B., I was looking back at every single Texas Senate race that I could find. And at this point in the campaign, James Talarico is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years. You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now. Texas, Democrats have dreamt about turning it blue. This time the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it.

BERMAN: I have to say, this is a difference that I have not seen before and I was not aware of. And a lot of people are making the comparison to 2018. One of the reasons is that Ken Paxton, if he's the nominee, not a super popular nominee, and people are like, oh, well, Ted Cruz, as an incumbent senator, he wasn't that popular either. So, what's the difference between Cruz and Ken Paxton?

ENTEN: Yes, the idea that Ted Cruz was not that popular, that's a falsehood. That is, simply put, a falsehood. You go back, again, just look at these differences right here, OK? Texas GOP candidate net favorability. Ted Cruz's net favorability was actually plus seven points in my average polls. Look were Ken Paxton is. The complete inverse of that. He was seven -- he's seven points under water. So, look -- again, you just look at the numbers. In 2018, Democrats had this dream of turning Texas blue. The numbers didn't support it, in large part because Ted Cruz was actually decently popular. But Ken Paxton is anything but. In poll after poll after poll, he is underwater. No wonder Republican senators are running scared, especially after that Trump endorsement of Paxton yesterday.

BERMAN: How's the president doing in Texas? ENTEN: OK, that's the other part of this equation, right? All politics

at this point funnel down from up top and then drop down to the state level. And you can just see it right here. OK, back in May, 2018, Trumps' net popularity in Texas, he was at plus four points. He was above water. Again, we're looking at the inverse of that. Trump is considerably less popular in Texas, which, of course, matches what we're seeing nationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now than he was at this point in term one.

You put it all together. You look at the general election polls. You look at the popularity of the potential Republican candidates that will be running for Texas Senate. You look at Donald Trump's popularity as well, and you go, OK, Texas is absolutely in play. Does that mean that Democrats will finally win their first Senate race since 1980 and Lloyd Bentsen? I'm not saying that. But it is a real possibility.

BERMAN: What you are saying is 2026 is different than 2018.

ENTEN: It is different than every campaign that I have been around for.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much for that.

ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Let's turn to Georgia. Two key Republican primaries going into overtime. In the Republican Senate primary, Trump's ally, Mike Collins, and Derek Dooley, who was endorsed by the state's Republican governor, Brian Kemp, who's also very popular, are headed for a runoff next month. And in the governor's race there, also going to a runoff after neither Trump-backed Burt Jones nor Rick Jackson cleared the 50 percent threshold at they needed.

CNN's Arlette Saenz live in Atlanta with much more.

What does it look like this morning in Atlanta?

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Republicans were unable to coalesce around a candidate in both the Senate and the governor's race, meaning that this will now head to a runoff, extending these GOP brawls in these important races for another four weeks.

Starting on the Senate side, there is Congressman Mike Collins, who is a very ardent supporter of President Donald Trump's MAGA agenda, going up against Derek Dooley, a former college football coach whose father is a famous name here in the state as the former legendary Georgia Bulldogs football coach. Dooley has been running with the endorsement of Georgia Governor Brian Kemp, who is incredibly popular, has spent a lot of his own political capital to try to get him into this runoff. The question is whether that will make a difference once they are in this two-person matchup.

Another outstanding question is whether President Donald Trump decides to get involved in this race. He had withheld an endorsement going into this contest, but that could potentially change now that we're in this runoff.

[08:40:01]

But both candidates last night, as they spoke to supporters, previewed some of their messages.

Take a listen.

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DEREK DOOLEY (R), GEORGIA SENATE CANDIDATE: A vote for Mike Collins is a vote for Jon Ossoff for the next six years. But a vote for me is new leadership in the U.S. Senate, because we're going on offense.

REP. MIKE COLLINS (R), GEORGIA SENATE CANDIDATE: Everybody knows that I do best with the MAGA base. It's because they know I've always been with President Trump. Even when it wasn't popular, I was still out there on the trail fighting.

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SAENZ: Now, whoever wins this runoff will face off against Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff in November. Ossoff is the only Senate Democrat who is running in a state President Donald Trump won back in 2024, but he is a prolific fundraiser. He has amassed a war chest of about $32 million, leaving the Republicans to play catch up over the next few months.

Now, in the governor's race, the Trump endorsed candidate, Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones, who was among those who had signed up for the fake electors back when President Biden had won in 2020, he advanced to this runoff, and he will face off against Rick Jackson, a health care executive billionaire who has poured more than $80 million into this race. More than all of the GOP candidates combined. That is another marquee matchup heading into November. The state of Georgia is one of those swing states in the presidential and it will have two very hotly contested races come this fall.

BOLDUAN: Absolutely. Which is why when this goes into extra innings, it gets interesting. It's good to see you, Arlette. Thank you.

John.

BERMAN: With us now, CNN political commentator Alyssa Farah Griffin, the former White House communications director during President Trump's first term.

And Alyssa, first off, I think we can dispense fairly quickly with the obvious headline, President Trump, enormous power within his own party when he endorses, yes?

ALYSSA FARAH GRIFFIN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, he's absolutely the dominant force when it comes to the Republican base and Republican primaries. He has a much shakier record, though, when it comes to picking primary candidates who can go on to win a general election.

I want to remind you of a few names we may be too old to -- are too old to remember. Kari Lake, Doug Mastriano, Blake Masters, Mehmet Oz, Herschel Walker, Adam Laxalt, Tudor Dixon. I worry Ken Paxton might be the next name on that list. This is not who the party wanted. It's not who Senate leadership wanted. It's not who Texas Republicans, I think, wanted.

BERMAN: All right, we'll come back to Ken Paxton in a second. "Politico" has a quote, Dasha Burns in the playbook this morning has some reporting, speaking to a Republican Senate campaign official who said "those so-called victories over the last couple weeks are just a mirage. They are self-owns. We're not actually beating Democrats, and we're not actually advancing legislation. Instead, gas is up 45 percent due to our actions and the president's decision to go to war with Iran. He's focused on the ballroom. He's announced a $1.8 billion restitution fund with zero details or congressional authority to do so. It's just crazy."

And that's from a Republican.

GRIFFIN: Yes, it might be Bill Cassidy under a different name right now, who seems unleashed. But listen, it is a bad moment for Republicans heading into the midterms. And the president, while he can claim objective victory in defeating Thomas Massie, the party's in much shakier footing. Because think of this Texas race. So, now you have Ken Paxton, who's much harder to beat Talarico. Now, I'm still a little skeptical that Dems can turn Texas blue. But think of the places that Republicans want to be spending money, North Carolina, Maine, Georgia, races that are really must win for Republicans. Now, resources are going to have to be diverted to Texas because this is way more competitive than John Cornyn, the like number two in the Senate, one of the most beloved Republicans whose loved statewide. That would have been the obvious place to go. But Donald Trump likes to Donald Trump.

BERMAN: Oh, by the way, John Cornyn can raise a fortune also.

GRIFFIN: Yes.

BERMAN: All right, let's do some political role play here. You, of course, were White House communications director. You know the president well. I want you to play the role of the president, right? So, I'm an adviser. I come in and say, hey, Mr. President, if you endorse Ken Paxton, he's going to have a worse chance to win in November. The president says.

GRIFFIN: Yes, but he was -- he was with me after January 6th. Cornyn wasn't really with me after January 6th. And then I would add, he might actually tell that advisor, OK, I'll probably endorse Cornyn. And then later he's going to find out over a tweet that it's Ken Paxton. I experienced that many times.

So, listen, this comes down to loyalty. It comes down to who was truly with me. He feels like he's been betrayed in the past by people who were shaky. That's why he went after people like Bill Cassidy. But he just made the midterms a lot harder for the party, but also for himself. He's going to have to face oversight.

BERMAN: More role play here. An advisor comes in and says, hey, Mr. President, gas prices are up to a wartime high, or near war-time high of 456. You shouldn't call it peanuts.

GRIFFIN: Fake news. The gas prices aren't up. I think this is an information gap with the president. I'm not convinced that he's getting real economic data about how much this war is hurting Americans. I'm not convinced that he's seeing Harry Enten's data about how unpopular the Iran War is. There is just -- he would be trying to sell this war harder if he really had the information of how unpopular it is.

BERMAN: He doesn't -- he's not aware of the gas prices.

GRIFFIN: I -- listen, I think that you -- you know, he watches his Fox News.

[08:45:01]

He gets an idea of how things are. But I think he really thinks the country's with him on Iran and he thinks that he's going to be able to fix this by summertime. I think the rest of us are a lot more skeptical.

BERMAN: It's a 30 percent approval.

GRIFFIN: It's -- yes. And you're talking about $5 and $6 a gallon going into summer travel. I mean it's the worst place that Republicans want to be heading into the midterms.

BERMAN: Alyssa Farah Griffin, thank you very much. Appreciate your help and your role playing there.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: It is good to see you, Alyssa, in all the roles that she plays.

There is also brand-new reporting from "The New York Times" this morning about the early days of the Iran War. And it can really only be described as a shocking revelation. Here is how "The Times" puts it. Let me just read this. "Days after Israeli strikes killed Iran's supreme leader and other top officials in the opening salvos of the war, President Trump mused publicly that it would be best if someone from within Iran took over the country. It turns out that the United States and Israel went into the conflict with a particular and very surprising someone in mind. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former Iranian president, known for his hard-line anti-Israel and anti-American views." Yes, that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The president of Iran from 2005 to 2013. The man who infamously called to wipe Israel off the map, strongly supported Iran's nuclear program and more.

This U.S.-Israeli plan, though, allegedly fell apart quickly. But the question is, why? And this is really where the reporting gets interesting. Joining me right now is one of the reporters who broke this story,

Mark Mazzetti of "The New York Times."

Mark, when I read this, I just kept saying, what? How is this possible? From house arrest to plans to make Ahmadinejad like the next Delcy Rodriguez, the man that could not hate Israel and the United States more is going to be the moderate voice that they want to see lead the country. I mean how is this possible? What have you learned?

MARK MAZZETTI, WASHINGTON INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT, "NEW YORK TIMES": Yes. And you left out that he famously denied that the Holocaust ever existed. So, this was not the person that you naturally would have thought would be the person that the Israelis and the Americans thought could lead Iran after the war.

It's been one of the mysteries since the war began, who they had designated or had in mind to take over. And what our story says was that there was a plan and that Ahmadinejad was basically on board with this idea that he would be freed from house arrest early in the war and then be part of a plan once the regime was toppled to sort of take over. And then Israel and the United States would have this kind of pliable leadership.

But then, as we remember, the first day of the war, after the supreme leader was killed, there was a strike on Ahmadinejad's house. And there were reports that he had died. It actually had been an Israeli strike to kill the guards who were guarding him and spring Ahmadinejad. But unfortunately, according to the plan, he was injured and then became disillusioned. And so the plan went badly awry and they went on to whatever the next plan was in terms of the leadership.

BOLDUAN: John and I were talking about this backstage. It really -- when you see what you have revealed in the reporting, and you think about it in the context of, things that have been said by President Trump from before the beginning and then in -- and then kind of in the middle, towards where we are now of the war, it really ties these threads together and makes so much sense, even though it shouldn't make any sense at all that Ahmadinejad was the guy that they chose. Where is he now?

MAZZETTI: It's a good question. And we don't know. He has made very few public statements through his advisors since the war began. And it is still something we're endeavoring to find out, where he is at the moment.

As you said, it ties things together that many people said at the beginning of the war, including the president, recall in the days after the war, he was saying, well, we had people in mind, but many of them have been killed. And again, remember, there were reports that Ahmadinejad himself had died. And so, it was -- it'd been this question of, who was the designated leader after the supreme leader was killed. And, of course, remember, in the context of, this was not long after the Venezuela operation that installed Delcy Rodriguez, an internal regime figure who was the, quote, pro-American person that they installed. So, there were elements of the Venezuela plan in what they were envisioning in Iran. BOLDUAN: And did not go as planned at all, it seems now, which leads

to the big question of, which is, you know, let's wait for part two of your reporting as you continue to work of, what is the plan now? It seems they're working on it as we speak.

Mark, great reporting to you and the team. It's quite a read. Thank you so much for coming in.

[08:50:03]

Still ahead for us, did a shipwrecked man sending out an SOS flair start the biggest wildfire burning in California right now?

And, come on, Barbie, let's go party, taken to a whole new level. A Georgia man makes a functioning gas-powered car out of, yes, a pink Barbie dream camper.

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BOLDUAN: The World Health Organization gave an update just this morning warning the Ebola outbreak in central Africa is getting worse, and they are concerned about both the scale and speed of the spread of the virus. The new numbers that are in, nearly 600 suspected cases, more than 130 suspected deaths in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda. The WHO officially declared the outbreak a global health emergency, saying that a vaccine is likely still months away.

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TEDROS ADHANOM GHEBREYESUS, WHO DIRECTOR GENERAL: There are several factors that warrant serious concern about the potential for further spread and further deaths. First, beyond the confirmed cases, there are almost 600 suspected cases and 139 suspected deaths.

[08:55:04]

We expect those numbers to keep increasing, given the amount of time the virus was circulating before the outbreak was detected.

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BOLDUAN: That from the World Health Organization today.

Joining us right now, Dr. Deb Houry. She's a senior fellow at the Yale School of Public Health. She's also a former CDC chief medical officer, resigned from that role in the midst of all of the changes at the CDC brought on by HHS Secretary Robert Kennedy Jr.

Doctor, thank you for being here.

What is just your level of concern and focus with regard to this outbreak right now?

DR. DEB HOURY, SENIOR FELLOW, YALE SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH: I think it's a very serious outbreak abroad. I think given a lot of the changes that happened with USAID and CDC, and with the World Health Organization withdrawal, there just haven't been the boots on the ground to provide that support to really flag when this outbreak was starting. So, we're several weeks behind. And when the virus takes two to 21 days, you know, to incubate, what it means is people have already been exposed. So, we're going to continue to see more cases before it can get under control.

BOLDUAN: And I think that gets to one of the big questions is, this -- we talk -- we have the World Health Organization. We have the pullback from the United States, from the World Health Organization. And the question of what is the role of the United States when looking at a -- this -- an outbreak that, as we know so many times, you go -- you don't even need to say it anymore, virus know no borders, of course.

Do you think the CDC, HHS, the Trump administration is prepared and responding appropriately to this outbreak right now?

HOURY: They are not responding appropriately. Just yesterday, the World Health Organization talked about not closing borders. That when you do those artificial travel restrictions, that actually can make things worse because then people will go through other countries, spread travel or spread disease through travel to other countries. And it can really give countries a reason not to report. And so, it really is counter to what you want to do. And so, the CDC is not aligning with the World Health Organization guidance. And they should be. They should be following the science and the data.

And given that just a week ago the Department of State changed the funding model for a lot of these countries, beginning in the fall, we're going to see even less support to the DRC and South Sudan. Meaning, that there's less capacity, less boots on the ground, less ability to protect Americans from these threats abroad.

BOLDUAN: Just in general, the fact -- what would you like to see or, I mean, at the most basic level hear first, but then see from the administration that to you, from being inside really right -- and, you know, at the forefront of this, of efforts like this and trying to respond to things like this before, what would you like to hear or see from this administration to indicate that they are making changes that you think are appropriate in responding to this global threat and thus protecting the United States?

HOURY: Yes, I would love to see them really working in partnership with World Health Organization, deploying extra support from CDC scientists, bringing back USAID support following WHO guidance, and really looking at the science itself. You know, recently we've even seen with hantavirus, they've changed the quarantine guidance. They're keeping people there versus letting them quarantine at home, which goes against CDC's own guidance from 2018 when there was a case of the Andes virus. So, CDC and HHS need to follow their own guidance and the World Health Organization guidance versus making up their own rules.

BOLDUAN: Confusion and conflicting approach seems dangerous in times like this, when you're facing threats like this.

Dr. Deb Houry, thank you very much for your time. Appreciate it.

John.

BERMAN: So, this morning, officials say a shipwrecked sailor may have sparked one of California's wildfires. Let's keep this picture up. This is a picture the Coast Guard shared of this shipwreck man alongside an SOS signal written in what appears to be charred vegetation. He reportedly fired off several emergency flares to signal to rescuers that he was there on Santa Rosa Island. There is still an investigation to see what exactly sparked the fire, if it was the flares. The fire has now burned about a third of the island. The Coast Guard did ultimately rescue him from there.

In Milwaukee, police say a driver led officers on an eight mile chase, winding through tight streets and around a shopping mall. After three tries, they were able to stop the driver. She is now under arrest. But it's not clear at this point what charges she will face.

[08:59:59]

This morning, Barbie to the rescue on gas prices. Sort of. So, this Georgia man transformed a pink Power Wheels Barbie dream