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Polls on Senate Seats for Democrats; Venezuelans Mark One Week After Twin Earthquakes; World's Oceans Break Heat Record; Pressure on U.S. to Face Bosnia in World Cup. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired July 01, 2026 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[09:30:40]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, that sound you hear this morning, the buzz in the political world. Why a whole bunch of new Senate polls released just this morning by "The New York Times" paints a picture of whether or how likely it might be for the Democrats to retake control of the Senate.

With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.

This is a lot of data.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: It's a lot of data.

BERMAN: That we're getting a first look at this morning. What story does it tell?

ENTEN: OK, so what's the simple math here? Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to regain control of the upper chamber in Congress. And right now, the math, simply put, isn't there for them. That is the picture.

And I want you -- it's just -- you know, it's a -- it's a math problem. It is a math problem. 2026 Senate poll margins. OK, Democrats need a net gain of four. OK, you get one in North Carolina. But then you got a bunch of red on the screen. Now these are close races, but you got a tie in Texas. Then it's plus two in Iowa for the Republicans, plus two in Alaska, and then plus three, if we can make the circle there, in Ohio. So, that gets you one seat. But, of course, you need four seats. And on this board, red, red, red, close races and a tie. You're at one. You're not yet to four.

BERMAN: I mean the good news for Democrats might be they're close in Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Ohio. But again, it needs to be four of these that are blue in order for them to retake it.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: Now, there's one state that you did not put up here.

ENTEN: No.

BERMAN: That's Maine.

ENTEN: That is Maine. Maine, which we've had a few Senate polls the last couple of days. And what do you see here? Even in Maine, a state that Kamala Harris easily won back in 2024. Look, "The New York Times" has Platner ahead by two. But that, of course, is well within the margin of error. That is among likely voters. Fox News, on the other hand, has Susan Collins, the incumbent, up by three among all voters. So, even in Maine you have a race that, simply put, is way too close to call. So really, on the mathematical march to four seats, there's really only one seat at this point that Democrats can look like they can count on. They'll probably win one of these other seats. But again, that gets you only to two and you need four.

BERMAN: Yes, you might think the Democrats were hoping to be -- look better given the war in Iraq, given inflationary concerns. The question is, is this their high-water mark or can they grow from here? They will need to grow.

What are some of the reasons why they might be having a little bit of a harder time?

ENTEN: The real reason why they're having a little bit of a harder time is these are red states, right, with the exception of North -- with the exception of Maine, right, these were all states that Donald Trump won back in 2024. And look at this, the median in the six key Senate races. Look at this. The generic Senate ballot lead for Republicans. Look at that. In the median state is six points. And, of course, the median right down the middle is, what, three, three and a half, right? So, you need to win states in which the generic Senate ballot lead is Republican plus six.

And then say the Dem Party is too far left. Look at this, 53 percent. So, these are states that are just very hard to win because the bottom line is, what is holding them back, what is holding them back is the fundamentals.

And when you put it all together, Johnny B., and you look at the prediction markets, which I think really can sort of put this all together, chance to win the Senate, the Republican chances, as you noted, John, the environment is getting a little bit better for Republicans. On May 1, Republicans had a 51 percent chance to take back the Senate. Now it's a 59 percent chance.

Look, Democrats have a shot here. There are seats on the table. But the fundamentals are against them. And that, right now, there are only one of the seats where they need to be. The mathematical problem is there for Democrats at this point. They, simply put, have a statistical math problem.

BERMAN: All right, we will see what happens in the days to come.

Harry Enten, thank you very much.

ENTEN: Thank you, my friend. BERMAN: A lot of news. We'll be right back.

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[09:38:26]

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: In Venezuela this morning there is now mounting anger and frustration amid the grief. Survivors are now beginning to remove debris by hand as they are facing fuel shortages that have left a lot of heavy machinery sitting idle. We're showing you one father that CNN spoke to. He's looking for his young daughters, who are presumed dead. And he told CNN that he can't think about crying because tears won't move a single stone.

The death toll is climbing, now at more than 1,900, one week after those back-to-back intense, devastating earthquakes.

Journalist Mary Triny Mena is in Caracas this morning for us with much more.

What's your view? What are you hearing about the continued search efforts, but also this frustration that our reporters on the ground have now begun to hear?

MARY TRINY MENA, JOURNALIST: Good morning. Kate.

This is a country that is in mourning and in silence in many places because there are many family members that are affected or relatives that are affected, that even every Venezuelan is touched by these events that struck Venezuela, these two earthquakes that struck Venezuela last week.

Today, at 6 p.m., there will be one week exactly since the earthquakes took place and the country is still trying to find some hope, some glimpse of hope indicated that there's still the possibility to find more people alive.

[09:40:05]

But the reality is that the crisis is in several fronts.

For example, these shortages of gasoline, when it comes to the rescue teams. But right now they are trying to keep up working without thinking about this limitation. They are trying to keep going and finding their resources, even though they are difficult to find.

And also, there's other crises like the displaced people. More than 50,000 people displaced. And also the amount of people that has resulted injured that are coming to hospitals, hospitals that were broken.

We need to remember that this was a country that was severely impacted by an economic crisis and a political crisis even before the earthquakes.

BOLDUAN: Yes, that's absolutely right. Well, thank you so much. Really appreciate your reporting on this, continued reporting on the ground. So many stories to tell and they are so far from being able to really -- to recover.

Sara.

SIDNER: It's awful over there. Thank you so much, Kate.

We're going to see triple digit temperatures day after day after day. For three days at least in several places this week. The dangerous heat already here and it's spreading across the eastern half of the U.S., just in time for the July 4th weekend. Now, new evidence there is that heat is building somewhere else as well. In our oceans. The world seas just broke an all-time heat record for June, supercharged by the onset of El Nino.

CNN's Bill Weir knows this like the back of his hand.

What are you learning from this new data which, you know, a lot of people go, oh, warmer seas, it will be nice. It will be like taking a -- no, it's dangerous to us all.

BILL WEIR, CNN CHIEF CLIMATE CORRESPONDENT: Yes. That's right. This is not your comfort on vacation. But if you just -- just for perspective, Peterson Key, down in Florida bay, water temperature is about 92 degrees, right. So, this is the average of the entire globe. Amass all the oceans, planet earth, now just shy of 70 degrees Fahrenheit. And that is off the charts hot compared to the 30-year average of just recent generations as well. That's just shy of 21 degrees Celsius.

And this is the opening attractions, Sara, because El Nino, what may be a super El Nino, this is a natural warming cycle in the Pacific, that's just kicking off. We're going to feel the real wrath of that come August or so.

But the oceans really cover a multitude of humanity's sins when it comes to climate change. Ninety percent of the extra heat is absorbed by the oceans, but now they are getting warm enough for us to notice. And the effects of these, of course, it fuels heat waves on land, fiercer storms on land, extreme rainfall and flooding. The rain bombs that usually come with El Ninos headed for California and the west this summer. Mass bleaching of coral reefs. Of course, at a certain temperature, the symbiosis between these little critters that create coral, the nurseries of the sea, that breaks down. And then there's sea level rise. Comes both from melting glaciers on land, but also water expands as it heats up. So, just the oceans themselves are getting higher and bigger as the earth overheats under a blanket of fossil fuel pollution.

SIDNER: Yes, it's truly disturbing. And anyone that loves our oceans, you know, the creatures in there can't handle this. It's like having the same kind of heat wave there in the ocean to them as it is to us on land.

I did want to ask you about what we heard from the Trump administration recently. I think they were trying to shut down an ocean monitoring system. What happened there? And why? WEIR: Right. Well, they got enough Republican pushback in places that

depend on fisheries. Lisa Murkowski up in Alaska, big -- very much opposed to this as the Trump's plan to shut down an ocean monitoring system, hundreds of instruments that float, that glide under the ocean. They're in the process of really taking them out of the sea until there was this huge pushback from Republicans saying, no, we need these monitors to tell us what's happening, the health of the ocean. You got acidification. This all happens as it gets warmer as well. So, this is one rare loss for the Trump administration as they just assail all things climate science related.

SIDNER: Yes, you got to wonder. You think you'd want to know. The equipment's already there.

Bill Weir, thank you for keeping an eye on all of it. Stay safe out there. It's going to be hot.

John.

BERMAN: All right, it is win or go home for the U.S. men's national team. We're going to give you a watch guide, what to look for in the big maybe historic game tonight.

And then the epic battle, coyote versus cactus. Who came out on top.

[09:44:56]

You can kind of see.

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[09:50:17]

BERMAN: All right, tonight, win or go home for the U.S. men's national team just hours away from the U.S. against Bosnia and Herzegovina, going for their first win in a World Cup knockout match since 2002.

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SERGINO DEST, U.S. MEN'S NATIONAL TEAM: It's a knockout round. And if you want to win this trophy, the World Cup, you got to beat everyone, you know, and be able to beat everyone. So, if it's from Europe or Africa, it doesn't matter, we just -- we just want to win.

FOLARIN BALOGUN, U.S. MEN'S NATIONAL TEAM: We know we're going to need to be creative. We know we're going to need to be intense, like we have been, you know, so far. And, you know, there's no doubts we can go out there and win.

GIO REYNA, U.S. MEN'S NATIONAL TEAM: We have very high expectations for ourselves for the rest of the -- this tournament. And, yes, we don't want this to be over.

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BERMAN: With us now, Paul Tenorio, senior writer for "The Athletic," and Joe Lowery, founder and editor of "Backheeled." He's also the co- host of "The Total Soccer Show" podcast, which has just been doing incredible work all throughout this World Cup.

Gentlemen, you are my two favorite soccer journalists. Thanks for being with us.

Paul, let me start with you.

I mean, obviously, it's win or go home. So, set the stakes. How much pressure is on the U.S. team?

PAUL TENORIO, SENIOR WRITER, "THE ATHLETIC": Well, I think the pressure even went up again last night when Mexico beat Ecuador in its knockout round. That means both other co-hosts of this World Cup, Canada and Mexico, have gone through to the round of 16. And the expectation around this group, this U.S. group, was that it could do something special. It could do something different. Well, in order to do that, it needs to advance deeper into the tournament, needs to get to a quarterfinal or somewhere in that area. And so, there's an immense amount of pressure to make what they did in the group stage worthwhile, to make the country continue to believe to tune in and against an opponent, Bosnia, that they should beat.

BERMAN: Yes, talk to me more about that, Joe. What are your reasonable expectations for tonight given the quality of the U.S. team and the quality of Bosnia?

JOSEPH LOWERY, FOUNDER AND EDITOR, "BACKHEELED": Yes, the U.S. should be expecting to create chances. And that needs to be the key for them in this game. In a lot of ways, this matchup against Bosnia and Herzegovina will set up like a lot of the games that the U.S. played in the group stage.

I think about the opener against Paraguay, where the U.S. had a lot of the ball and found ways to get in behind and to create chances, even against a Paraguayan team that we've seen has the quality and the ability to muck things up defensively. Think about the Australia game and how deep Australia were in that five-four-one block. This is going to feel like a similar type of game, where Bosnia and Herzegovina are going to allow the U.S. to be the protagonist.

The pressure will absolutely be on the United States as the hosts, as the favorites, according to the markets heading into this game. Does the U.S. have the ability yet again to create chances against a deep, compact block? That's going to be the thing that decides the game tonight.

BERMAN: It's an interesting way to put it. I mean, for most huge games the U.S. has had in knockout rounds, the U.S. has been the underdog. The U.S. has been the one that was sitting back being attacked by the other team, just trying to hold on for dear life. It's going to kind of be the opposite, one would think, tonight. But, Joe, just back to you, if we do win, and I can say we because I am a member of the U.S. men's national team, which players, which players, Joe, will be the ones, do you think, to put the U.S. over the top? LOWERY: I mean, the easy answer is, Christian Pulisic, because he has

been so impactful for this U.S. team whenever he's been on the field. Pulisic said earlier this week that he's ready to go 90 even 120 minutes if needed coming off of that calf injury. And he will be important.

I think about Sergino Dest as well. A lot of the quality that the U.S. has in the wings to attack one v one I think will be essential in this game because of how Bosnia and Herzegovina defend. They are quite man oriented along the back line, which means they're trying to make lots of one v one matchups all the way across their defense. That means that the U.S.' is best dribblers are going to have to be on their game today to eliminate their man and go and create chances.

I'll also add one more player, Weston McKennie. We've seen Weston McKennie dominate games, not necessarily on the ball, but off the ball at this World Cup with how well he moves, how well he can see and exploit spaces. There's going to be opportunities for the Juventus midfielder to drift around and create that way (ph).

BERMAN: So, Paul, what makes me nervous is the two shootout defeats we've seen for Germany, who definitely lost to an underdog in Paraguay, and then the Netherlands losing to Morocco. Morocco's a very strong team. But to see it go to kicks to end the games, is that something where you think that, you know, you could Bosnia take the U.S. to kicks, and is the U.S. well suited to get through if it goes to that?

TENORIO: Well, I think certainly Bosnia would not mind if it got to penalty kicks for a multitude of reasons. First of all being that playing in the United States with a huge home ground, they're -- a huge home crowd, they're going to be up against it tonight for sure. And they also have a goalkeeper who has saved 70 percent of his penalties at the club level and saving above the normal rate for goalkeepers and penalties across his career. So, they have a good shot stopper.

The United States has been ready for this too, though. Since Mauricio Pochettino took over, we've reported in "The Athletic," they've been using brainwave technology to try to improve penalty kick taking for the U.S. team.

[09:55:05]

Basically, the players strap this equipment on and take penalties, and it measures how they handle pressure. And so, they're ready for this moment too. They hope that it gets them ready for the big moments.

BERMAN: Yes, I'm not sure I'm ready. I need some of the brainwave technology. I'm terrified. I'm terrified. I have to somehow get through the next ten hours before this game. I'll have to occupy myself somehow.

Paul Tenorio, Joe Lowery, thank you both for being with us. Again, thank you for everything you both have done this entire World Cup, helping us understand what we're seeing. BOLDUAN: Brainwave technology.

SIDNER: We need it.

BOLDUAN: I shall take it. I mean, sounds like every day we just plug in.

"The Late Show with Stephen Colbert" wrapped in May, and now the famous sign for the show has found a new home out in California. It is now in west Hollywood atop a local restaurant. The owner of the WeHo Bistro said that he won it an auction. He also said it will spend about two weeks on the rooftop before he moves it to a permanent spot inside the restaurant.

SIDNER: That's mine and Greg Christiansen -- you guys remember Greg Christiansen? That's our favorite restaurant. Every time I go home to L.A., I go there.

BOLDUAN: Really?

SIDNER: Yes, I love that little bistro.

BERMAN: It's going to have a new sign up, just to tell (INAUDIBLE).

BOLDUAN: Now it's got a new sign out front.

SIDNER: I might not recognize it. That's so cool. OK.

BOLDUAN: All good things.

SIDNER: Also, brainwave technology. Can we discuss getting that? Management, get on it.

BERMAN: We need that. We need it.

BOLDUAN: We need that and a little -- we need that and a lot more help.

BERMAN: Thank you all for joining us. "SITUATION ROOM" up next.

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