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Polls on Democrats Chances of Retaking the Senate; Rep. Greg Landsman (D-OH) is Interviewed about Control of the Senate and June Jobs Report; U.S. Economy Added 57,000 Jobs in June; Axios Reporter Madison Mills is Interviewed about the Jobs Report; Wells Fargo Agri- Food Institute Head Robin Winzel is Interviewed about Food Prices. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired July 02, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[08:32:13]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, this morning, an update on the race for the Senate. As we have reported, Democrats need to pick up four seats if they want to take control of that chamber. And we've seen in polling this week how steep of a climb that will be.

But there is some new data that might give them reason for hope. What is that data? CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten is here.

So, what are you seeing sort of under the hood here, Harold?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: What are we seeing under the hood? If Democrats are going to take back control of the United States Senate, it will be in large part because of one man and one man alone. And it is this man right here, Donald John Trump, because he is an anchor -- he is an anchor on Republicans running for the United States Senate.

Take a look at the six key Senate races, the six key Senate states, and take a look at how much more unpopular Donald Trump is and the average of those compared to where he was back in 2024. We're talking Alaska, Maine, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas. Look at this. In 2024, on average, he won those states by eight points. In most of them, he won by double digits.

But look where he is now on his net approval rating. Down, down he goes into the Ohio River. Look at this, he's at minus 11 points. It's a nearly 20-points switcheroo in the negative direction. Donald Trump now underwater by double digits in the six key Senate races. The six key Senate states that Democrats need to win four of in order to win control of the United States Senate.

BERMAN: Let's break them down, as they say, Harry.

ENTEN: Let's break them down. In any of the states, is Donald Trump on the positive side of the ledger? No. He is underwater in all of them. He is underwater in all of them. Look at this, Trump's net approval rating in the key Senate states. Look at this, in Alaska he's one point, Texas, nine, Iowa, ten, Ohio, ten, North Carolina, 14, and in Maine, where you have that tight Senate race, he's 21 points underwater. So, in these three -- if you look at Ohio, you look at Iowa, Trump won those both by double digits. Same with Texas. And now he's somewhere between minus nine and minus ten points underwater.

So, Donald Trump, across the board, across the board, in each of the six key Senate states, is now underwater in all of them despite winning in five of six of them all on this side of the screen back in 2024.

BERMAN: I just want to circle Ohio for a minute, which will become clear in about, oh, 90 seconds from now. But ten points underwater in Ohio. Remember that when Kate comes on in a second here.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: OK, the big issues include affordability, cost of living. How's the president doing in these states there?

ENTEN: Yes, OK, why? Why have the people in these states so turned against the president of the United States in five of the six of these that he won?

[08:35:02]

It comes down to the cost of living. Look at these numbers on your screen. Trump's net approval rating on the cost of living. The same states. Look at this, minus 22 points, minus 21, minus 24, minus 26 in Ohio, minus 29 in North Carolina, and minus 36 in Maine. In each of the six key Senate races where the cost of living is the number one issue, the number one issue across the board, he is no better than minus 21 points. His net approval rating underwater by greater than minus 20 points in all of the six key Senate races.

This is why I say that Donald John Trump is an anchor dragging down these Republican candidates across the board. If they lose the Senate, it will be because of Donald Trump becoming so unpopular, especially on the cost of living.

BERMAN: Yes, look, if affordability is still the same issue in November that it is now, these numbers, oh, they're bad.

ENTEN: It will drag those Republicans down and boost the Democrats to a Senate majority.

BERMAN: Harold Enten, thank you very much.

ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.

Kate.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Thank you, boys.

Joining us right now, Democratic Congressman Greg Landsman of Ohio. Thank you for the setup, gentlemen. Let me ask you, I want to -- I want to start with what we're -- what they were just going through and what Harry was kind of highlighting in terms of a look at the effect on some of these -- some of these key states. The polling in Ohio, just in summary, to remind, Trump has a net approval of negative ten. On cost of living, Trump's net approval is negative 26. The Senate race in Ohio is still seen as a toss-up, though, and I kind of wonder why it isn't more in Dems favor when Trump has numbers like that.

REP. GREG LANDSMAN (D-OH): Well, I mean, it's still early, but, you know, in my district, which Trump won by three points, I'm one of, you know, a few Democrats in Trump districts. He's very much underwater. But it's because of the economy, his handling of, well, just about everything. There just, you know, people are frustrated with the chaos, the corruption. There's a level of cruelty that we haven't seen. It's not really, you know, our values here in Ohio.

And, you know, the most unpopular thing, and this is what's going to be tough for Jon Husted, who's running against Sherrod Brown, is the, you know, massive spending bill where they spent $4.5 trillion, most of that went to tax cuts for the super wealthy. And they cut health care by $1 trillion. I mean people are going to lose their health care, and many already have. That is incredibly unpopular and people want somebody else.

BOLDUAN: Also, this just in, I'm just looking down and getting it and we'll have more with Vanessa Yurkevich coming up. But we do have the June jobs report that also just came in, Congressman. And the way it looks is hiring slowed in June, 57 -- just 57,000 jobs added in June. That's lower than expectations. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent. This is a cool down for sure from May's gains of -- which was closer to like 130,000.

Just, you know, we just learned this. You're just seeing this. What do you think?

LANDSMAN: I mean, I feel terrible for the country. I mean this is that -- that means that people are hurting even more. And, you know, it's -- we desperately need, you know, really serious leadership at the White House, at, you know, in Congress. You know, the speaker sent us home again. Can't pass anything, you know, because they're so, you know, focused on fighting with each other. And the American people have lost out.

So, I -- you know, look, you know, unemployment numbers aren't good. The inflation rates are bad. But the economy is just structurally broken. And it's been like this for, you know, a good chunk of my lifetime in the sense that you have this extreme concentration of wealth and power. The people at the top are doing incredibly well, and they get all the benefits, particularly tax benefits. And then everyone else is just struggling. And it's getting worse and worse and worse. And you need, you know, big time reformers to fix it. And we don't have that right now.

BOLDUAN: Well, this actually speaks to what we are seeing in Democratic primaries in certain places right now, which is, people, as you say, we need reformers, but it seems there are -- there is the Democratic base that in a surge -- a surgent -- an insurgent and surging Democratic base from the left -- from the left flank, who is just mad at incumbents. As "Punchbowl" put it this morning, "the stunning defeats of Senator Michael Bennet and Diana DeGette in high- profile primaries," obviously out in Colorado this week, "are just the latest examples of the anti-incumbent fervor dominating the Democratic Party."

And really the success of the Democratic socialist candidates that we've seen in Democratic primaries so far is a very real thing. I mean as a more moderate, more centrist member yourself of the party, does this worry you?

LANDSMAN: A little bit. I mean, you know, I'm -- I think I'm different in the sense that I'm very progressive when it comes to economic change, which is where most, I think, voters are.

[08:40:04]

They want to see real economic change. I don't take corporate PAC money. I, you know, I think we've got to take on the corporate consolidation and the price gouging and fix the -- fix the tax code. And, you know, I've been leading on that. And then, you know, more moderate and, I think, pragmatic on public safety, national security.

But I won my primary by 70 points. So, I think it does require, you know, a reform-minded leader who's going to go take on the system, but is also very pragmatic. I mean, I did better than they are doing. So, I don't -- I don't think it's just, you know, this far left position. I do think it's, you know, being willing to take on the economic status quo and the political status quo. I don't have their radical ideas, you know, and I think voters reward me for that. So, I think they will struggle too unless they, you know, sort of moderate what is very radical ideas.

BOLDUAN: You're -- and the comparison kind of you -- of like your primary and the way you position yourself is quite an interesting one when it comes to some of these candidates because one thing that was central with each of these, these campaigns that I'm kind of noting here, was a clear and loud anti-Israel sentiment. We've already seen from the reporting that the Democratic Party in the House is struggling on how to respond to this. I mean "Axios" is reporting on this internal Democratic discussion about a measure being pushed to pare back U.S. aid to Israel, and one Democratic lawmaker alluded to kind of the political pressure that Dems are facing to support anti- Israel measures, telling "Axios," "we know it's crap," meaning the measure, "but..." What does this mean for the Democratic Party?

LANDSMAN: I mean, look, I don't -- I don't know yet. There's this, you know, rising anti-Israel, anti-Semitic, you know, you know, thing happening on both sides. It's happening in particular online. And, you know, there's no question that the Netanyahu government has made, you know, real mistakes. And to be frustrated and angry with Netanyahu and this far right government is, you know, is where a lot of us are. Then the question becomes, like, do you abandon an ally? You know,

what does that mean in terms of our own national security and our own safety, our own reliability? What about the intelligence sharing and the technology? I mean there are a lot of things that are in play here. And so, I think it does require, you know, pretty smart, thoughtful people.

Ultimately, though, the American people don't have this at the top of their list. They're focused on us fixing the economy, keeping them safe, getting rid of the corruption in government, all of the things that impact their lives. And so, I think those of us who have stayed focused on the cost of living and fixing the economy and the work to improve the lives of our constituents and, you know, and that does mean, you know, for me, and I think this is true for those others who do well, is like, you've got to be deeply rooted in the lives and work of the people you represent. So, be home all the time. Do town halls. Be super engaged. That's what ultimately people care about.

BOLDUAN: Yes. Let us see how it all shakes out.

Congressman, thanks for your time. I appreciate it. Happy Fourth.

John.

BERMAN: All right, that breaking news that Kate mentioned. We have the new data on the state of the labor market. The June jobs report coming in a little bit lower than expected.

CNN business and politics correspondent Vanessa Yurkevich is with me now.

So, give me the numbers here.

VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: All right, so a weaker than expected jobs report, but still holding steady. The number is 57,000 jobs added in the month of June. The expectation was closer to 100,000. But 100,000 was already a slowdown from what we've seen in March, April and May.

The unemployment rate, though, ticking down. It was expected to hold steady at 4.3 percent, coming in at 4.2 percent because the labor force participation rate. So, fewer people in the workforce looking for a job right now.

If you look over the last few months or so, it's been robust hiring. It's really been sort of a difference from what we saw last year when there was this no hire, no fire mentality from employers. What we've seen in the last couple months is a pickup in hiring.

However, there were some downward revisions. April's monthly number was revised down by 31,000, and May had 43,000 fewer jobs added. So, still a good labor market, but not as strong as we initially thought over the last couple months.

Where we are seeing jobs added in the month of June, health care, that's been a leading driver for almost a year now, 22,000 jobs added there.

[08:45:05]

That is because we're seeing an aging population. We need people in the health care industry to take care of older Americans. We also saw an increase in business services, 36,000 jobs added there. That's white collar workers.

A little bit of a surprise. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs in the month of June.

BERMAN: With the World Cup?

YURKEVICH: Exactly. So, a lot of questions there. There was an expectation that hiring would ramp up for all of these games that were being played across 16 cities across North America. What this report says about that is just weaker than expected hiring or weaker than usual hiring. It could be because some of those stronger numbers we saw leading into the summer. So, maybe people did a lot of hiring in anticipation of the World Cup. So, June's number was lower. In fact, shedding 61,000 jobs.

One thing to note, though, is wages. We've been looking at this very closely. Last month, the annual wage growth was 3.4 percent. This month, ticking up slightly higher, 3.5 percent. But, of course, the gap for where inflation is on an annual basis is widening, 4.2 percent is the annual inflation rate. So, good news that we're seeing wages tick up. But still that gap between what Americans are having to pay for and the price -- prices people are having to pay every single day, that number is becoming more pricey.

BERMAN: Yes, the gap is the problem, right?

YURKEVICH: Yes.

BERMAN: If inflation is going up more quickly than your wages are --

YURKEVICH: Right.

BERMAN: You're kind of losing the capacity to spend.

All right, Vanessa Yurkevich, thank you for explaining those all so well. Really appreciate it.

All right, with us now, Madison Mills, reporter with "Axios," who covers A.I. but has spent a lot of years covering the Fed and jobs in the market here.

What jumps out to you most, Madison, about this report?

MADISON MILLS, SENIOR A.I. REPORTER, "AXIOS": What's interesting is the reaction I'm getting from economists in my inbox this morning is that this is not indicative of an emergency labor market, which is surprising given that the headline number missed so much.

The question here is whether or not this is going to put the Federal Reserve in a state of urgency. And specifically what I'm hearing from Stephanie Roth (ph) this morning, no urgency from the Federal Reserve. This buys them a little bit more time.

Why is that? The labor market, that number is a downside surprise this morning, but it's not necessarily in freefall. You have certain numbers within the report that you all just went through that indicate that there are pockets of strength within this report and within this labor market that's not in emergency mode, but it's not necessarily giving the Federal Reserve the all clear on the health of the labor market. So, potentially just gives them a little bit more time to focus on inflation, which they've already indicated in recent statements that they're very keen to try and tackle first before the labor market. So, just giving the Fed a little bit of that flexibility there, John.

BERMAN: Yes, I've been reading the same things. Jobs market not in crisis, but also just not booming, right? An economy that's been resilient and resilience is great, but resilience isn't booming either.

MILLS: That's exactly right. And it's interesting because you can see so many similarities with how the A.I.-ification of our economy is impacting things. We're sort of in this low hire, low fire environment where CEOs don't want to rush to hire more people because they might be able to replace them soon. Oh, and by the way, if you look at the tech sector in particular, the level of payrolls there is at a ten year low as of this June. So, seeing a lot of the impact of A.I. over there.

And then there's also just this broader question about the over hiring of jobs coming out of the pandemic, the impact of immigration on the labor market, all of these varied factors coming together to create a moment of sort of pause for the labor market, which is certainly not going to be a good feeling if you're somebody who is looking for a job or looking to leave your job right now.

BERMAN: And just to remind people, keep that chart up for a second, the very end of that chart, where the red line is on top of the blue line, that's the problem. That's inflation going up at a higher rate than wages are. Wages are decreasing basically, or not rising fast enough. Inflation is going up. That's a problem. It means you have less money basically to spend on a daily basis.

Madison Mills, great to see you. Thank you for explaining all that so well.

All right, a hiker rescued after falling more than 1,000 feet down a mountain. That seems hard to survive.

And rapper Lil Wayne apologizing to his fans this morning after he didn't show up to his own concert.

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[08:53:30] BERMAN: In Bibb County, Georgia, a police chase ended with a car flipping over there. Police chased a stalking suspect who lost control of the truck he was driving. You can see that happening right there. After it crashed, he proceeded to pull a gun on the officers. He eventually surrendered and now faces multiple felony charges.

A 31-year-old woman is recovering this morning after falling 1,500 feet while climbing California's Mount Shasta. It took crews nearly five hours to rescue her. They say that she had a fractured right ankle and other injuries, but all things considered, falling 1,000 feet and being safe afterwards, lucky this morning.

All right, this morning, rapper Lil Wayne is apologizing to fans after he didn't show up for the opening night of his own tour. Thousands of fans in Bangor, Maine, waited for hours for the concert to start Tuesday night, only to be told to go home just past 11.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It was the most terrible experience. We drove over six hours to be here. Never mind the money. It's like moments in life. And that was going to be a moment. She left her six-month baby for the first time. Like, it's people's time. Just don't waste people's time.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So, on social media, Lil Wayne apologized to fans and announced the show would be rescheduled. No word yet on why he didn't show up, Kate, which seems to be a big part of the job.

BOLDUAN: Yes. We'll find out. Maybe. Possibly. Together.

OK, the July 4th weekend means fire up the grill, amongst many other things.

[08:55:01]

This year that is going to cost you some more. A new report from Wells Fargo finds that the average cost of a backyard barbecue for ten people is up 2.4 percent from last year. That works out to be about $16 a person. The report also found that meat prices are driving much of that increase. Hamburger beef up 14 percent. Hot dogs are up five percent. Chicken breasts about -- up about three percent. And as for the sides and drinks, Wells Fargo says that potato salad is up this year about five percent. Beer and ice cream, which, of course, always go hand in hand, they've rose slightly. Fruit prices reportedly stayed the same. So, now we know where we've got to really be spending our money. Everyone's eating fruit for the Fourth of July.

Joining me right now to talk more about this and what more they have found is Robin Wenzel of Wells Fargo.

Thank you so much for being here.

Tell me more about what you and your team are finding here, what these price increases mean and what choices people are making because of that.

ROBIN WENZEL, HEAD OF WELLS FARGO AGRI-FOOD INSTITUTE: Hi, Kate. Good to see you.

And now I've learned that beer and ice cream go together. So, thanks for that.

What we are seeing is that we have a mixed bag in terms of opportunities. So, as you said, you know, with the proteins, the grill is always the star of the show. We are seeing hamburger up quite a bit. And this is a function of the U.S. cattle herd really being at its lowest level in over 70 years. We don't expect this to turn around anytime soon. It is a multiyear process to get those herds back up, but we see some relief and options with chicken or even pork ribs to have a little bit of savings on the grill.

BOLDUAN: I did see, Robin, I was looking -- beer and wine prices are up about one percent, I think I saw, which is essentially flat. Sparkling water up about 4.6 percent. I mean, what are what are you seeing around the buying habits around people when it comes to beverages?

WENZEL: Yes. So, consumers are drinking differently. We are seeing more and more consumers opting for no sugar, low to no alcohol options. And sparkling wines have been a huge category winner for this group of people. Functional beverages as well. So, we see those up about four percent. As you said, beer and wine are pretty flat at about one percent, but they do constitute a pretty sizable portion of the budget. So, that can add up.

BOLDUAN: Yes, that's a good point. Talk -- you said that relief -- there isn't really any relief coming in sight anytime soon. I saw that the Agriculture Department reported this was the smallest -- we've been looking at the smallest U.S. cattle herd since 1951. The whole conversation around beef, around cattle farmers, I mean, this goes back to Trump and tariffs and has continued. It's a real long term when you look at the U.S. food supply. It's a real long-term issue.

WENZEL: It is. And I will attribute it more to the drought conditions that we had and high feed costs. So, it just became uneconomical in many cases, you know, to grow the herds. And so, they really diminished. And now supplies are down and beef remains a very popular protein. So, the demand is there.

BOLDUAN: One other thing I'm fascinated by and have been tracking is this big debate when it comes to the nation's food supply over -- around pesticides. Because just last week the White House made a move on agricultural products and farming. But it's one that seems to be making supporters of like Health Secretary John Kennedy not happy at all. The president issued an executive order that's aimed at reducing pesticides in the food supply and studying the health risks that they pose. But supporters of the MAHA movement seem to think this is something of a toothless measure -- gesture.

Agriculture, big AG is big business. And not weighing in on yay or nay on pesticides, I'm curious if your group has seen research on just what a change toward more regulation and more restriction when it looks at pesticides and foods, the case studies we've seen of what that could mean about the business and supply to the -- when it comes to the business of the food supply and the impact that it could have for farmers across the country.

WENZEL: You know, I think if we take a step back and we look at agriculture in the United States, you know, our farmers and ranchers have really done a tremendous job of supporting the food supply, not only to feed our country, but others as well. And that's really a management of good farming practices, as well as utilizing tools out there to help against disease, pest, all of that. So, it is a balancing game. And I think we learn as we go. And we've seen that certainly over decades of agriculture.

So, I think we need to consider, you know, all of the variables at play. Certainly, we want healthy options. We want to make sure that we retain our food supply.

[09:00:00]

We want to make sure that we can continue feeding our people, as well as other parts of the world.

So, it's a -- it's a complex issue and one that gets a lot of attention.