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Number of Americans Identifying as Democrats Rises Sharply; Interview with Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN): EU Invites Canada to be First Associate Member Amid U.S. Tensions; Three New Republicans Vote with Democrats to Limit Trump Iran War Powers; Federal Reserve Expected to Hike Interest Rates; Russian Spy Satellites Likely Helping Iran Against U.S.; Critical Oil Pipeline Shut Down After Drone Attacks. Aired 8:30-9:00a ET

Aired September 16, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, brand new numbers from Marquette Law School overnight showing Democrats with a 13 point lead in the congressional ballot test right now. Basically lead over Republicans heading into the midterm.

The New York Times was out yesterday with an 8 to 9 point lead. Both are pretty big. So what's driving this?

With us this morning, CNN Chief Data Analyst Harry Enten. A look behind the numbers and one thing jumped out at you.

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: One thing absolutely jumped out to me, to borrow from President Trump's language, big league. Big league. That is a big shift that we are seeing, and you can see it right here.

It is the party ID margin. That is you identify as a Democrat or Republican. If you're independent, push them to one side or the other.

And what you see here is a fundamental shift going on here. You know, back in 2024 in early September, this foreshadowed Donald Trump's victory. Republicans led on party ID by two points.

Last year at this point, it was just a one point lead for the Democrats. Look at where we are now. That Democratic advantage up like a rocket.

These are very good numbers for Democrats now up by eight points in terms of party ID. We are not just talking about the top line here in terms of the generic ballot moving. We are talking about fundamentally underneath.

The fundamentals are shifting in the Democrats direction on this very key metric.

BERMAN: More people are saying they're Democrats.

ENTEN: Democrats than they are Republicans. And of course, in this day and age, when you say you belong to one party, chances are very, very high, very much near 100 percent. You're going to vote for that party.

BERMAN: What about some of the groups that had been seen as crucial to President Trump?

ENTEN: Yes, exactly right. Why? Why has this number shifted from plus two Republican in early September 2024 to now plus eight Democrat in early September of 2026?

Well, it all comes down to this split, non-college-college. Look, in 2024, Democrats had the college vote, right, on party ID. That is those who had graduated college were 14 points more likely to identify as Democrats and Republicans.

But the non-college vote is a larger portion of the electorate, and they were 13 points more likely to identify as Republicans than Democrats. Come over to here. What has happened?

Johnny B, whoa, again, a big league shift. We are talking about a 14 point shift in the Democrats direction. Now they lead on party ID among those who did not graduate college by a point.

You combine that with this 16 point advantage. It really didn't move among college.

[08:35:00]

The reason why Democrats are doing so well on the fundamental question of whether or not you identify as a Democrat or Republican at this point, at least according to The Times, is because those who didn't graduate college have shifted tremendously into the Democratic column.

They now lead by a point on this metric, and that has allowed their lead to balloon to eight points overall when it comes to party identification.

BERMAN: That's a big shift among a big group for President Trump.

ENTEN: That's exactly right. A group that backed President Trump, big league, has been backing Republicans. They are abandoning the Republican Party, going into the Democratic camp.

BERMAN: All right, so how much does party ID really matter if we look back at the midterms this century?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. So you see, right, two, one, and then the eighth lead for the Democrats, right? Why does this matter?

Why does this matter? Because in midterms this century, take a look here. The Dems win the House, 2000 midterms.

Led in party ID, they won the House in the two of the two times that that happened. When they didn't lead, that is, they were tied or trailing Republicans. They never won the House.

So what we see here is because Democrats leading on party ID, that says that they're going to win the House. BERMAN: When they're ahead, they win. When they're behind, they lose. And now they're ahead.

ENTEN: Exactly right.

BERMAN: So, Harry, this was a fulsome discussion.

ENTEN: Yes.

BERMAN: But say it wasn't enough for you. Say someone wanted to ask us more questions about the midterms. Say tonight at 7 p.m., what could they do?

ENTEN: Well, I could tell you, you know, you can go to cnn.com/OfficeHours, because we're going to have a midterm elections Q&A. Here's a very good looking gentleman right here. That's myself.

See, it's twins, twins, twins. Johnny B is going to be part of it. Abby Phillips is going to be part of it.

And you can go to cnn.com/OfficeHours tonight, 7 p.m. Eastern time, streaming live with an ALL ACCESS CNN subscription. And you know what? You can actually see right here.

Look, you can leave a question for us. Look at that.

BERMAN: Leave your questions. Leave your comments. Join us live 7 p.m. cnn.com.

ENTEN: There we go.

BERMAN: /Office

ENTEN: cnn.com/OfficeHours.

BERMAN: Thank you for saying that correctly, appreciate it -- Kate.

BOLDUAN: I'm not sure if I should be excited or just afraid.

BERMAN AND ENTEN: Both, both, both.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: I just don't know what my feelings are yet, though. I will tune in and be so pumped. Thanks, guys.

This is also breaking overnight. Canada could become the first ever associate member to the European Union. That invitation comes as the Trump administration has been escalating its trade war with Canada, as well as European allies.

Here now, the European Commission's president just this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

URSULA VON DER LEYEN, PRESIDENT OF THE EUROPEAN COMMISSION: This is not a partnership against anyone else, but for our common strength. In short, we want to bring the relationship with Canada to the highest level possible. And dear Mark, I said we must urgently reimagine our partnerships.

So I would like to work with you on opening the door for Canada to being the first associate member of the European Union.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney, as you saw him there, he also got a standing ovation during his meeting with the European Union today. So what does this mean for the United States currently? Canada's largest trading partner.

Let's talk about this. Joining me right now is Republican Congressman Marlin Stutzman from Indiana. Canada is one of the largest export markets for your state, my home state.

If Canada starts buying less of what you're selling, is that going to be -- is that going to hurt your constituents?

REP. MARLIN STUTZMAN (R-IN): Good morning, Kate. Great to be with you. You know, I think it's a terrible decision by Canada to appearances look like they're trying to walk away.

And I think that if they want to join the European Union, nothing wrong with them trying to develop trade partnerships with the European Union. But during this context with negotiations with the United States, I think it's a bad decision. The European Union, I mean, Europe, especially Western Europe, has been on the decline.

And so why Canada wants to attach themselves to that, I don't understand it. I think that, you know, for Indiana, we are a heavy manufacturing state. There is a lot of trade between Indiana and Canada.

But we have other markets. We have other countries that are coming to Indiana and saying, we want to do business here. Israel is one of those.

They just announced a big announcement a couple of weeks ago with the governor of Indiana related to agriculture, a project there. So there's new opportunities for Indiana. I'd much rather be in our shoes on trade than in Canada's.

BOLDUAN: But you heard the European Commission president there saying that the decision to join forces with Canada is not a partnership against anyone else. Do you see it that way?

STUTZMAN: Well, I think she had to say that to qualify what there, you know, what is really happening here, and that Canada and the European Union are working more closely together. If that's what they want to decide to do, they can. I think it's a terrible decision.

The United States is the hottest economy in the world. There's more investment dollars coming here. The activity is high.

[08:40:00] While we have challenges right now in the energy space and in other new technology spaces, we'll tackle those and we'll fix those. But if Canada thinks that they have a better partner in the European Union than the United States, I think that they're going to make a terrible decision.

We can all be friends. But at the same time, we're not going to let people take advantage of the United States. And President Trump has been very clear on that, that he's going to start looking out for the American consumer, the American manufacturer.

And I hear that from businesses in Indiana, where some of these companies are seeing some tremendous growth right now because business is coming back to the United States.

BOLDUAN: What they're also seeing is price increases, those businesses, especially in the agriculture sector, especially for farmers in Indiana, because diesel prices are through the roof. I was just looking at new reporting coming out of Indiana of just how painful it is for farmers in what they're having to pay in diesel just to even cover like an acre of land. And that comes back to the Iran war.

The House just voted a third time yesterday to try and force the president to end the war or come to get approval to continue it. Seven Republicans backed the measure. That's three more GOP votes than prior votes.

One of them, Zach Nunn out of Iowa, he's one of the new votes, if you will. He explained his change in vote this way, Congressman.

"With the negotiating window closed, sustained combat operations now require congressional authorization. Having deployed multiple times and flown over 700 combat hours in the Middle East, I will not support another open-ended war. We can defend Americans, pressure Iran and pursue peace while ensuring Congress fulfills its constitutional responsibility."

You did not vote the way that he did. What do you say to him?

STUTZMAN: Well, obviously, I respect all of their votes and understand their position. But I think that we're so close to the Revolutionary Guard failing and falling.

BOLDUAN: Where do you see evidence of that?

STUTZMAN: Well, you know, look at their attacks. I mean, any of their attacks back on us in that region is very, you know, it's one at a time. And, you know, they may get lucky and strike a ship here and there.

Their response to us is much more subdued than what it was at the beginning. And also some of the reports that I've heard, the Iranian people are ready and willing to activate when they know that they have support in the region. And I think that's coming, you know, the economic activity or the economic squeeze that Secretary of the Treasury Bessent has put onto Iran is having a huge impact.

We knew that this was going to go on a little bit longer. I don't think this is an open ended war at all. I mean, we're still within a nine month window here.

And the fact that President Trump has taken out their nuclear capability, that was the objective from the very beginning to keep --

BOLDUAN: That's not what that is not what the focus is right now, as you know, as you know, the sole focus right now is getting the Strait of Hormuz open. Now the worry is Bab al-Mandab.

STUTZMAN: Oh, yes.

BOLDUAN: Now the worry is the east-west pipeline from Saudi Arabia. That is the nuclear capabilities is nowhere near the focus right now, despite any press releases.

STUTZMAN: But that's what that was the objective. The objective was to keep Iran and the IRGC from having nuclear capability. There's obviously going to be effects from those attacks on any sort of nuclear sites.

And the IRGC is not going to just lay over. I mean, they're obviously much more sophisticated than what Maduro was in Venezuela. But the fact that President Trump has reset the energy table with Venezuela now on our side, Alaska's expansion.

I'm super optimistic about energy production for the Western Hemisphere. You know, you mentioned diesel prices. A lot of that goes back to Russia and to the Ukraine war.

And that's why the sanctions that we're debating today in Congress on Russia is an important piece to all of that. You know, if we're not going to put boots on the ground -- which I totally understand that -- we have to have other tools to be able to bring them to the table and to negotiate. So I'm very optimistic that this can be settled soon.

I understand, you know, Indiana farmers are seeing high fuel prices. But I hear from a lot of constituents as well that they understand the IRGC has to be eliminated and that we need to finish the job if we've come this far.

BOLDUAN: And then the question becomes, should Congress be involved in it or not? Congressman, thank you very much. I appreciate your time -- Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, thank you, Kate.

New this morning. President Trump has repeatedly called on the Federal Reserve to slash interest rates. But today, the man he handpicked to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh, is expected to announce the first rate increase in three years. It's to battle stubbornly high inflation.

[08:45:00] Wall Street expects the Fed to hike rates perhaps twice this year. But it's unclear if that will be enough to rein in prices, especially if energy costs and President Trump's trade war continue pushing inflation higher.

Joining me now is Justin Wolfers, Professor of Economic and Public Policy at the University of Michigan. It is good to have you to talk through this.

First of all, do you sort of see this as a test of the Fed's independence? Because for so long, the president has been saying, bring the rates down, bring the rates down, bring the rates down. And the market is expecting the rates to lift.

JUSTIN WOLFERS, PROFESSOR OF ECONOMICS AND PUBLIC POLICY, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN: Yes, I think it matters less whether how I see it and more how the rest of the world and particularly the market sees it. And the market is absolutely convinced that the current state of the economy calls for a rate hike. Right now, the market rates at a 92 percent chance of happening.

And one way of thinking about that is not that they're uncertain about the state of the economy. They're uncertain about who Kevin Warsh is. There's an 8 percent chance that he is the president's sock puppet and a 92 percent chance he's a serious guy trying to do his job.

So he's in a very difficult spot, because if he raises rates, he's going to get a very angry call from the President. And you can expect some rage tweeting this afternoon. But if he doesn't, he's going to get an economically consequential tantrum, because the bond market would be deeply upset if he were a political tool rather than someone trying to steer the economy to the right place.

SIDNER: What is the bond market warning all of us right now?

WOLFERS: That the U.S. is borrowing so much money that we're pushing up interest rates. And to be clear, when I say the U.S., I mean the U.S. government, that our national debt is absolutely enormous. But more than that, we knew that was true a day, a week, a month, a year ago.

It's that we're running an enormous budget deficit. This year, our budget deficit is larger than at any point through the post-war period, except during a recession or a war. So we have a sort of emergency type deficit during a non-emergency period.

And worse than that, we have absolutely no plan, no action, and actually not even any real conversations about how do we bring this deficit down to something more sustainable. So they're saying that the U.S. government is borrowing a lot, he's borrowing a lot, and is likely to continue to borrow a lot. And they're worried about us.

SIDNER: We will wait to see what happens. Consumers will be affected either way. We will see what happens and what the Fed does today.

Justin Wolfers, it is a pleasure to have you on. Appreciate it -- John.

BERMAN: All right, a new CNN investigation reveals how Russian spy satellites orbiting over the Persian Gulf likely helped Iran hit U.S. assets with devastating precision, injuring personnel and destroying key resources such as AWACS surveillance craft. Those are planes that the Pentagon uses to spy, basically, or to overlook the region.

With us now, CNN military analyst, retired Colonel Cedric Leighton. Cedric, great to see you this morning. How surprising is it that the Russians are providing information from their spy satellites?

And how does that change the situation in this region?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, good morning, John. It's not surprising at all, actually. You know, these satellite constellations are basically the modern version of what the Russians had during the Cold War.

And one of the things that's really key about this is that these satellites are able to provide information, usually imagery intelligence, sometimes signals intelligence, that give the Iranians precise coordinates as to where they can strike. So what you're seeing is when the satellites go over a certain area, you know, if they're in lower Earth orbit or even in other types of orbits, what they can do is they can look at certain areas. And because of advances in technology, they can home in on specific areas.

And those specific areas, of course, come with coordinates. And that then provides the impetus to go after places like Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and other places such as the facility in Bahrain, the naval facility that was destroyed. So the Iranians have, through the Russians, have gotten this capability and they're using it quite effectively.

BERMAN: And Colonel, the situation in the region has sort of shifted over the last couple of weeks. And a lot of it has to do with the Iranian-supported Houthi rebels in Yemen here. We can see the Houthis have now spread their control, actually it does include this town right here.

And it also includes a very key island in the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb right here. So effectively, the Houthis have much more control over this strait. And that can be key because oil, really, from Saudi Arabia only has three ways out, right?

It can go out the Strait of Hormuz, which we know is constricted.

[08:50:00]

It can go out the Strait of Bab al-Mandeb, which right now is constricted and under Houthi control. And the third possible way, they've been running oil out of this pipeline here into the Red Sea, but there have been strikes now here as well. And now they're constricting even there. So from a strategic perspective, how could the United States shift this back? LEIGHTON: Yes, that's going to be a real big challenge because if you've ever looked at the terrain surrounding the Bab al-Mandeb or the Strait of Hormuz, it's pretty forbidding. It's very dry. There's hardly any water on that Perim island that you showed that the Houthis have now taken control of.

And of course, the city of Mocha is also an area that is a pretty significant place when it comes to actually constricting the flow of trade through the Bab al-Mandeb. So then when you couple those two straits with the East-West pipeline, as you pointed out, what that does is it really limits Saudi Arabia's capacity to export its oil. And what does the United States do in a case like this?

Well, one of the things that they are trying to do is to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. So there are those escort operations that CENTCOM has mounted that basically get about at best a third or so of the pre-war volume and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The Bab al-Mandeb, that hasn't been worked yet.

So that's something where they may have to do something in that particular area. You know, that is one area where when you look at the volumes of traffic and everything, that could really constrict global trade flows. And then when it comes to the East-West pipeline, with that being cut off and potentially even the Suez Canal being targeted, then you run into a situation where in essence, Saudi Arabia is surrounded.

And if the U.S. doesn't help Saudi Arabia, the Saudis are either going to have to achieve an accommodation with the Iranians or they're going to establish some other kind of relationship where they go through these areas and do it without the U.S.

BERMAN: And the reports are the Saudis have been asking for help, which hasn't been coming quite as much or as quickly as they wanted. Colonel Cedric Leighton, good to see you this morning. Thank you very much -- Kate.

BOLDUAN: Coming up, a dangerous drive on a California boardwalk. A stolen car hits a pedestrian, then the suspect gets chased down by bystanders. Got much more ahead.

[08:55:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BOLDUAN: OK, in San Diego, a wild situation. A suspect leads police on a chase. Ends up driving on a boardwalk and hurting a pedestrian in the process.

The suspect eventually gets out of the car. Look how fast it's going. Out of the car and starts to run.

Someone on the street/boardwalk sees him, chases after him. The witness, who is actually the person who shot this video, said it would have been easier if he hadn't been wearing Birkenstocks. He tossed the Birkenstocks, caught up with him. And then says he held him down for a few minutes until police could arrive. I mean, I know.

European Union is moving to ban now all social media for children under the age of 13 and impose new restrictions on interactions and screen time for older children. The proposal would also require tech companies to prove that their platforms are safe for minors. It could take years for the EU to approve this.

But some member nations like France have already gone about it unilaterally and acted their own social media bans.

The Obama family, the Obama family dog, Sonny, has died. Former first dogs Sonny and Bo, remember this when they got the dogs?

They were just staples of the Obama White House and their cuteness. They were so fun. They were like the happiest dogs.

Former President Obama released a statement about this. Saying that about the quote, cherished member of our family, saying, "For 13 years she would be by our side -- always loyal, always sweet, always ready for adventure, still fiery and gorgeous till the very end of her days. We will miss her terribly and imagine she's with her big brother now making sure he's OK." Former first dog Bo died in 2021. Sweet nuggets -- Sara.

SIDNER: They are sweet, bless them. All right, thank you so much, Kate.

All right, we're taking you on a road trip to highlight tasty hometown places to eat across America. CNN's new original series, "THE DETOUR WITH DAVID CHANG," premieres this weekend with back-to-back episodes.

The show follows a celebrity chef as he asks us to get off our phones, ignore the algorithm and get to good local eats that you might not have heard of all across America. I got a chance to sit down with David Chang to talk about the most memorable moments from his journey.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SIDNER: David Chang, your new show, "THE DETOUR," it takes us along with you as you're going on road trips across the United States. Did you plan this out very specifically?

DAVID CHANG, CELEBRITY CHEF: I told them we want to do a road trip. We're going to have an itinerary, but we're really going to do our best not to use it. My intention was to not do any homework whatsoever.

Not look at the phone, not look at any websites, talk to people. It had to be friends or getting recommendations from total strangers.

SIDNER: You start talking about influencers. You're like, I don't want to be influenced. What's wrong with doing that?

CHANG: Nothing's wrong with it. But I think if that's the only way of discovering things, that's not necessarily the best thing. There's a lack of discovery, a lack of personalization, of sort of interacting with the world. And I think that's a growing movement of people that want to go back to a time and place where it wasn't fed to you, and it wasn't a consensus.

You know, that's what community was to me, was having different viewpoints about something that wasn't as polarizing as politics. There's nothing wrong with using your phone. I do it all the time, too.

But maybe there's a time and place to not use it. And maybe we could make a TV show on that.

SIDNER: You end up in Tennessee. What did you discover that lit you up?

CHANG: The state of Tennessee has always weirdly been a second home to Momofuku because of the things that happened in that area. In Madisonville, Tennessee, we go visit Alan Benton and Benton's Smoky Country Hams.

SIDNER: What is your connection with Alan Benton's hams?

CHANG: The flavors of Tennessee, the flavors of that smokehouse from Alan Benton allowed Momofuku to be Momofuku. It was like a huge unlock. It was so critical to our early success because I just wanted to do things that weren't necessarily Asian ...

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