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Polls on House Elections; Sen. Raphael Warnock Test-Drives 2028 Message; Rep. Grace Meng (D-NY) is Interviewed about Mus Donating to GOP Groups; More Families Falling Behind on Debts; Saudi Airport Hit by Houthis; Southwest Braces for Flooding. Aired 8:30-9a ET

Aired October 12, 2026 - 08:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[08:30:00]

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: The mood. It's midterm time. It's election time.

But, no, it is not. It's not just Talarico in which we are seeing a very unusual pattern occurring in the great state of Texas.

Let's talk about lower down the ballot. Let's talk about the House elections. OK, Democrats versus Republicans. U.S. House elections in Texas. You can go back to 2024. The 2024 result, the statewide popular vote for the U.S. House was Republicans plus 18. Oh, let's get some pen here. There we go.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Oh, there we go.

ENTEN: We got some pen. Plus 18 for Republicans. Look at it now. Look at it now. No clear leader in the statewide polls in the generic congressional ballot, but Democrats actually are polling slightly better than Republicans at plus two. That is a 20-point movement. That is a 20-point movement to the left.

And I was looking up through the history books. This would, in fact, if this were the final result, would be the best Democratic showing this century in the state of Texas. You have to go all the way back to 1992 to find the last time that Texas Democrats won the statewide vote when it came to the U.S. House of Representatives.

So, this is truly historic polling. It is not just at the top. But we're seeing it in the U.S. House of Representatives polling as well. Unusual Democratic strength.

BOLDUAN: Where are you seeing, in terms of the biggest shift here, what's driving this?

ENTEN: What is driving this? What is driving this 18 to two, this 20- point shift going on? It's Hispanic voters. It's Hispanic voters. OK, Hispanic voters in the great state of Texas. You know, you go back to the 2024 election. Look at this. Donald Trump won Hispanic voters by ten points. Look at where the U.S. House polling is right now. It's Democrats leading among Hispanic voters in the great state of Texas by 31 points. That Republican brand, that Donald Trump brand is in the garbage with Hispanic voters in the great state of Texas.

And this is -- what is this, Kate? This is a 41-point shift to the left. Democrats doing historically well with Hispanic voters, at least compared to where they were two years ago in the great state of Texas. And of course, I will note, in all of this, Texas is the fastest growing state per USA facts. So, what we're essentially seeing right here is Democrats picking up strength among the number one group that is growing the fastest in Texas. This is a very ugly picture of Republicans, not just now, but long term as well.

BOLDUAN: Texas is also -- was also kind of the first big, major driver when it came to -- came to the mid-decade redistricting efforts --

ENTEN: Yes.

BOLDUAN: That Republicans led, especially in Texas, to try to gain more advantage and gain more seats. What does this mean for them?

ENTEN: Yes. OK. So, one of the reasons why Texas Republicans thought they could pick up a lot of seats with that mid-decade redistricting was the idea that Donald Trump put up historic strength among Hispanic voters, right. But now all of a sudden you see this. You go, wait a minute, wait a minute, wait a minute. Maybe it's more of a dummymander (ph) than a gerrymander to actually pick up seats. Ergo, it might not work out so well for them.

Well, take a look at this. OK, the redistricting seat gains. Remember, Texas redistricting, GOP House seat gain, their initial hopes were that they could pick up, up to five seats. Up to five seats. But now the most likely outcome, as I look at sort of an aggregate of different measures, is they may pick up zero, zero, zero seats and upwards of two.

But the bottom line is this. if Texas was this idea, Kate, that they could pick up a ton of seats and sort of hold back, hold back, that, you know, almost a dam against a Democratic wave, what Texas is showing is that dam is breaking, the water is seeping through, and it is actually even going over the wall. And so, Texas Republicans, this may turn out to be not anything what they imagine. It may be more of a waterloo than a victory parade.

BOLDUAN: That would be an interesting thing to see how this one turns out for sure.

ENTEN: This will be very, very interesting. But as we said --

BOLDUAN: Just after all the money that was spent on this --

ENTEN: All, all --

BOLDUAN: It would just -- yes.

ENTEN: All this money. And it may end up being zero, zero, zero. As I said, it's not just at the top of the ballot you're seeing that Democratic strength in Texas. It's also lower on the ballot as well.

BOLDUAN: Much more to come.

ENTEN: Much more.

BOLDUAN: Thank you, sir.

ENTEN: Thank you.

BOLDUAN: Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, y'all. Thank you.

The midterm, as you know, 22 days away. That is where the big focus is for Republicans and Democrats alike. But there is another race being considered in the background. The race to the White House in 2028. And Georgia's senator, Raphael Warnock, who's also a pastor, was in New Hampshire last week campaigning for Democrats there. It is one of at least three early presidential primary states he's visiting before the midterms. And it's clear he's test driving a message for 2028.

CNN's Isaac Dovere has this reporting for us and joins me now.

You know, oftentimes when, you know, people are asked when they're a senator or a congressman, hey, are you thinking about running, they kind of demure. They kind of -- kind of avoid it, say, look, I'm concentrating this now. That's not what's happening with Senator Warnock, is it?

EDWARD-ISAAC DOVERE, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Yes. I was in New Hampshire last week with senator, Sara, and we were talking about all of the work that he's doing for 2026. He was there to campaign for the Democrat who's running for Senate in New Hampshire. He has since been to several other places and will be doing more this week.

[08:35:04]

But I said to him, and what about you and running in 2028? That's, as you know, when politicians go to New Hampshire, that's usually what this is about. And he said to me, not no, we're on it. He said we've got to keep the focus on 2026. But he also said to me that he has, since he was a boy, been praying a prayer that he just wants God to direct his steps and direct his path.

And, obviously, that path took him to New Hampshire. But when he talked about what that means about how he's thinking about the future, he said, it's not a hocus pocus spirituality, but that he really wants to think about a data driven focus of how to approach this with the idea that he feels like America really does need a spiritual renewal, and that maybe this guy, who, every Sunday, in addition to being a senator, is back at the pulpit at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, of course that's Martin Luther King's former church, he's there thinking about this, thinking about what he's seeing in his congregation, thinking about what he's seeing on the Senate floor. He talks about how he thinks that Jesus is the victim of identity theft. And his part of his job is trying to help get -- bring that back. And where that maybe puts him when he thinks about what 2028 could hold. SIDNER: Yes, I mean there -- it's really interesting to watch this

occurring as -- in the lead up to the, to the midterms as well. Lots of things for people to think about and lots of names kind of being thrown about, but they will see how people fare in the midterms as well. That will be a big decider as well.

Isaac Dovere, great reporting from you. Thank you so much. I do appreciate it.

John.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, there's new reporting this morning about Elon Musk and his efforts to boost Republicans in the midterm elections. "The New York Times" reports that "Musk has quietly funneled more than $276 million into Republican groups and his super PAC since the start of July, building a huge turnout operation to help the party battle headwinds in the midterm elections."

With us now is Congresswoman Grace Meng, a Democrat from New York.

Congresswoman, good to see you this morning.

$276 million since July is a lot of money. How much of a disadvantage does that put Democrats in?

REP. GRACE MENG (D-NY): Well, we have seen this playbook before. He's tried it with previous races. He's tried it with our own government. And the results have only benefited himself, but also been very detrimental to our government with what they did with DOGE and USAID. We are going to stay focused. Democrats in the House are expanding our battleground map every single week. And in 22 days, we hope to see speaker Hakeem Jeffries, who will help lead Democrats in restoring democracy in this country.

BERMAN: The Democrats have the money they need for the rest of the election?

MENG: We do. We have seen that we are not just focused on our red to blue candidates and our front liners, but we are expanding the map. We are adding seats week by week because we are seeing, as we have seen in the past year and a half since this administration took over, polls continue to move in our favor as Democrats are focusing on affordability issues, and Republicans continue to enrich themselves and their friends at the expense of the American people. So, we are confident that in 22 days we will win the House.

BERMAN: So, Congresswoman, there continue to be questions about the ICE shooting of a man in his car, an immigrant in his car. He had a five-year-old in with him. The secretary of Homeland Security, Markwayne Mullin, was on with Jake, and Jake asked about the fact that there was a five-year-old in the car and whether that was appropriate to carry out the shooting at that point.

Listen to the answer.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) MARKWAYNE MULLIN, HOMELAND SECURITY SECRETARY: The last thing I would have done is put my son or one of my kids in danger. He chose to accelerate at a -- at a rate of speed, hit the vehicle in front, flee -- flare off and accelerate towards officers into another vehicle. He was a selfish individual. Why would you ever put your child into situations like that?

Now I get --

(END VIDEO CLIP).

BERMAN: So, the secretary says it's on the man for having the five- year-old child in the car at the time. Your reaction?

MENG: He's just trying to cover up what the ICE agents did, which. They acted recklessly. They acted illegally. His agents didn't even know that there was a five-year-old kid in the back of the car when they shot multiple rounds, and then this kid had to watch his father get shot.

The ICE agents acted recklessly. They don't even follow the laws of their own handbook. I'm working on legislation to codify what's in their own handbook because they need consequences for their actions.

BERMAN: What consequences?

[08:40:00]

MENG: Well, they have been using excessive force, not just in Queens -- in parts of New York City, but across the country. We have seen their reckless actions using excessive force caused people to literally die. And because it's their guidelines that they're not following, it's just in their handbook, there are no legal consequences that we can follow through in the courts, for example. So, I do have legislation that would codify what's in their own handbook to follow the law, just like other law enforcement issues -- officers.

BERMAN: Quickly, the president wants to suspend sanctions or is suspending sanctions on diesel fuel from Russia, buying diesel. He wants to bring down the cost of diesel by buying Russian product. How do you feel about that?

MENG: He is just attempting this last-ditch effort to pretend he cares about lowering costs for American families. We know that he has just always been in it to enrich himself, his family, and his billionaire friends. And even a bipartisan group of senators advised against this from the safety and interest of national security.

BERMAN: Congresswoman Grace Meng from New York. Thank you for being with us this morning.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: This morning, the economy, of course, is the top issue for voters pretty much everywhere this midterm election. And there's also now new data out showing the number of families falling behind on debt is hitting a 16-year high.

CNN's Matt Egan is joining us now. He's got more information on all of this.

What are you learning here?

MATT EGAN, CNN SENIOR REPORTER: Well, Kate, more and more families are feeling financial stress right now. Even though unemployment is low and stock prices are high, there are some pockets of weakness. And this makes sense to me because of the cost of living, right? I mean inflation hasn't been elevated for a few months or a few years. Now we're looking at a half a decade of elevated inflation.

So, this new survey from the Federal Reserve shows that the share of U.S. families who are behind on debt payments has increased to almost 20 percent, right? So, one in five families have, at some point, fallen behind on their debt payments. And when you look at the trend going back for the last dozen years or so, it was hovering around 12 percent. But look at this big spike between 2022 and 2025. That, of course, occurred during a time of very high inflation.

And there's some other signs of financial stress out there as well. The share of families who are seriously behind on their payments, that's defined as two months or more late. That has nearly doubled. Also, we've got the highest share of families who have elevated leverage. That's debt to income. The highest share since 2010. Of course, that was back when the U.S. economy was just coming out of the Great Recession and the 2008 financial crisis. And more and more people, they're turning to expensive credit card debt to try to get by. The average credit card debt is up by 19 percent since 2022 to $8,000. So, you put this together, and this does paint a picture of some financial stress.

Now, this report from the Fed, overall it wasn't terribly negative, right? It showed that some people are doing better. They're making more money. They're worth more. People have money in the market, or people who own real estate, they're certainly feeling better. They're doing better. They have more financial options right now in case they run into trouble.

But when you look at things at a high level, the median net worth, right, since 2022, up by two percent for all families. So, moving in the right direction. But that's just all families. When you really dig into some of the different demographic groups, paints a different story, right? Under 35, their net worth since 2022 is down by 23 percent. Black families down by 25 percent. Think about that. Those are pretty steep declines over a three-year time frame.

And keep in mind, this only goes up to the end of last year. That means this does not account for the spike in energy prices, surging borrowing costs. So, these numbers could actually get worse once you take into effect the situation for this year.

So, bottom line, Kate, I think this just shows that behind some of these positive numbers on unemployment, on stock prices, some families are struggling. And this also really underscores the importance of getting inflation back under control.

BOLDUAN: Well, you can see, I mean when this is weighing on you, something like this, it colors how you feel about every issue.

EGAN: Absolutely.

BOLDUAN: And that is what you are seeing bear out in how people are feeling right now.

EGAN: It is.

BOLDUAN: It's good to see you. Thank you for this.

EGAN: Thank you, Kate.

BOLDUAN: John.

BERMAN: All right, this morning, a string of deaths along a river trail sparks concerns that a serial killer could be on the loose.

And then a tractor trailer smashes right into a brewery. The question we all have this morning is, what happened to the beer?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[08:49:18]

SIDNER: This morning, the international airport in Saudi Arabia's capital is closed after deadly strikes from Iran-backed Houthi rebels. The latest attack occurred just yesterday, killing one and wounding 11 others, according to Saudi officials. The day before that, a missile strike killed 13 at the same airport and wounded hundreds of people. New video shows the disturbing moment of the attack.

Dozens of people, you see them just waiting to board a flight, and then suddenly you will see the results of a blast there that then caused part of the ceiling to collapse. That attack is the deadliest in Saudi Arabia in more than a decade.

Now, this has led President Trump to consider potentially getting involved in the conflict there.

Joining me now is Admiral James Stavridis.

[08:50:01]

Thank you so much for being here.

Look, Saudi-led forces, of course, are vowing retaliation. The president, though, is weighing in, getting involved here in this conflict between the Houthis and the Saudis. How complicated might this be? What does this mean for the greater Iran War?

ADM. JAMES STAVRIDIS (RET.), CNN SENIOR MILITARY ANALYST: Let's start with our current efforts over in the Strait of Hormuz, Sara. As you and I have discussed many times, the U.S. Navy is stretched pretty thin right now, keeping a blockade on Iran, getting oil out of the Gulf, escorting it out. Both of those are going pretty well. So, the problem, this is the complication you mentioned, is that in order to conduct these strikes, you'd have to divert assets away from your primary effort, your center of gravity, which is the Strait of Hormuz, over to this new western front. President Trump, obviously, doesn't want to do that because of the resource challenges. So, he will work with the crown prince of the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, and try and find other assets that can be helpful to the kingdom, say, from the Europeans, who have pretty good maritime capability, or from the members of the new mecca alliance, which is the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey.

So, there are alternatives. I suspect the president will push for them to step up and help. But I think, ultimately, the U.S. is going to be involved in some way in this new front in the larger war.

SIDNER: There will be potential political consequences to that as well as we are ramping up to the midterms.

I do want to ask you about President Trump announcing a new energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. And we just showed you the numbers of how high the oil has gone up. Brent crude up to, I think, $106 a barrel now. Ukraine seemed to be caught off guard by this. And there's really been no confirmation from -- of any agreement from Moscow. Does it appear that the president is just trying to manifest this without actually having made a deal?

STAVRIDIS: That's certainly possible. But I would say more likely he's actually talked to Putin. He or some of his subordinates have spoken to the Ukrainians. There's probably the shape of some kind of a deal. But as you're showing with the images, it's certainly not occurring.

Let me put it this way. I'm all in favor of any level of ceasefire. Let's start wherever we can. Be it ceasefire for prisoner exchanges. Ceasefire on energy facilities. Build some confidence and move toward a larger negotiation.

But the way to get there is going to be steady, sure-footed diplomacy, working with both sides. And by the way, suddenly lifting sanctions on Russian sales to the United States I think is a bad idea. It's going to encourage Putin to continue the conflict, not discourage him.

The thing we need to do, final thoughts, Sara, is, we need to stand with the Europeans in the face of Putin's aggression. That means working with our allies and finding ways to put pressure on Putin to get to a real ceasefire.

SIDNER: I mean, look, there is now a threat by the president to stop intelligence sharing with Ukraine if it doesn't stop hitting Russian energy resources. And -- but you're not seeing the same thing for Russia, which right after the president put out that missive, that there was an energy deal done between the two, Russia hit some of Ukraine's energy resources. I mean what does this all tell you in this scenario here?

STAVRIDIS: That Putin, at the moment, is not serious about moving toward talks or moving toward a ceasefire. And I think the only way that we get Putin there is to continue the economic pressure on him. And the way to do that is to maintain these sanctions, point one. And point two is, work with the Europeans in providing weapons. And above all, intelligence to the Ukrainians so they can continue to stand up to Putin. Anything that we do that allows Putin to get off the hook diminishes the chances of ultimately solving this through negotiation, which is what we all want.

SIDNER: We will see where this goes from here. Admiral James Stavridis, thank you so much for walking us through all that this morning. I do appreciate your time.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: Several states across the southwest are bracing now for potentially dangerous flash flooding that could hit as what's left of Tropical Storm Rachel heads their way from California.

[08:55:01]

Some areas could get hit with an entire year's worth of rain over the next few days.

Let's get over to CNN's Allison Chinchar. She's got much more on what to expect.

What are you seeing, Allison?

ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes, we're still seeing a lot of rain moving into a lot of these areas. You've still got some rain bands heading into southern California, Arizona. And just to the east of Las Vegas, we've got a pretty heavy rain band that's sliding up through there.

Keep in mind, for a lot of these areas in the southwest, several locations, maybe as much as a dozen, had record rainfall in the last 24 hours. Looking at some of these totals, areas of Arizona, California, picking up roughly half a foot of rain. Even some of the other places I want to note that maybe say only got two inches. Keep in mind, that's more than a lot of these areas get in an entire month. So, it's still a tremendous amount of rain for these locations.

The other thing, too, it's not just the southwest that's being impacted. We have a trough that's well off to the north. And what it's doing is it's pulling all of that remnant moisture from Rachel well far to the north. So, even states like Idaho, Wyoming, Utah, and Montana, that are well away from the West Coast, they are still being able to see some of that excess moisture being pulled in. So, you've got very heavy rainfall right now across Idaho. And yes, even some snow showers in some of those higher elevations up through those regions.

So, this is going to be the case as we go through the rest of the day today. This means there is still the potential for flooding for numerous states. Basically, everywhere you see this green color has the potential for that flooding. That's why the flood watch exists for much of the day today.

Here you can see going through the rest of Monday, and even into Tuesday, you're still looking at pretty good rain and even snow chances for the higher elevations. Once we get to Wednesday, we start to see more of that energy shift off to the east. You'll actually start to see some of the rain showers begin to develop across the central portion of the country, but still at the same time you've still got plenty of moisture feeding into Arizona, Utah, areas of Colorado. So, this is going to be a multi-day situation for not only the folks that are out to the west, but then we have to start watching the areas off to the east and the potential there.

When we talk about excessive rainfall, this is going to be the areas that have the higher risk for that flooding as we go through the day today. This does include Las Vegas. This includes Flagstaff. This includes Phoenix, L.A., San Diego. You're talking numerous big cities that have the potential to see that flooding.

The key thing to note, too, is in a lot of these instances, it could be very fast flooding. So, flash flooding, meaning it could be raining one minute and then the next minute you start to see standing water on these streets. So, do be careful because a lot of times it's just some of these heavier downpours, guys, that can come back and it can end up causing some big flooding concerns in these areas.

BOLDUAN: Yes, sure thing.

Allison, thank you very much for that update.

John.

BERMAN: All right, in Michigan, concerns there might be a serial killer after five people have been found dead along a popular river trail in Lansing over the last several months. Now, police say the similarities among the victims, they were all white and they were all unhoused. They also appeared to have been attacked while they were sleeping. Police do have a suspect they arrested allegedly linked to at least one of the deaths, but they are working to determine if all five cases are connected.

So, in Braintree, Massachusetts, an unoccupied runaway tractor trailer slammed into the side of a brewery. You can see it left the truck like wedged in to said building. Surveillance video showed the driverless truck rolling across the street before crashing into the building. Take my word for it, that's what the surveillance video showed.

The queen of Thailand just took her first solo flight in a fighter jet. A Swedish made aircraft. Queen Suthida is an experienced pilot, which is a good thing if she's taking a solo flight. She's been flying since 2010 and has logged nearly 1,200 hours in a variety of aircraft, including Boeing 737s. A good person to know if you need to be near royalty and catch a flight.

A brand-new hour of CNN NEWS CENTRAL starts right now.

BOLDUAN: Twenty-two days out, early voting already in, and the hints that it's offering that November could be big for Democrats. The signs coming in from there as the president is heading to Ohio today, and Republican candidates, though, making clear that he's hurting, not helping, their chances.

And growing outrage at ICE after a man was struck this weekend by one of their vehicles in Houston. What has happened there?

And rain, mud and pitch-black conditions strand some 70 people taking part in an ultramarathon. How they got out.

I'm Kate Bolduan, with John Berman and Sara Sidner. This is CNN NEWS CENTRAL.

[09:00:01]

SIDNER: In the march toward the midterms, Democrats are seeing great signs of enthusiasm in early voting. Republicans are now in hand- wringing mode.