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A Look at Polling Sources; Michigan Trail Deaths Raise Questions about Serial Killer; Search Carried out at Ilhan Omar's Home. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired October 12, 2026 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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[09:32:53]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, this morning, an important look at different types of polling. You know about public polls, like from CNN, "The New York Times," other news organizations. Those are public polls. Impartial organizations that go in to take a temperature of a state or a district.

But there are also internal polls. Those are polls from the campaigns themselves or the parties or interest groups that support one campaign or another. Those having bias, yes, maybe, but they also can be very revealing in their own way.

With us this morning, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.

I love this look --

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Thank you.

BERMAN: Because, if you're online, on social media, you see all kinds of internal polling that people put out there. And sometimes you say, oh, it doesn't mean anything. But it can.

First of all, what are we seeing this time in terms of internal polling?

ENTEN: Yes, OK, Johnny B. You know, we're not going to look at what those polls particularly say. What we're talking about, who is actually putting out that information into the public.

And there's a very clear story to be told here. I mean, just take a look at here.

OK, the 2026 election, published internal House polls. Look at this, 74 percent. Seventy-four percent of the published internal House polling has come from those who backed Democratic causes, compared to just 26 percent of those polls that come from those who backed GOP candidates, right? And so what we're seeing here is that the Democrats, for some reason, are saying, hey, we are the ones who want to actually put that information out into the public to a much greater extent than the Republicans at just 26 percent. BERMAN: I will tell you, in my 30 years of covering politics, there is

one reason why an organization puts out an internal poll. And that one reason is because you're winning.

ENTEN: Correct.

BERMAN: That is why you put it out. So, what has history told us about when Democrats released this much internal polling?

ENTEN: This is exactly right, Johnny B. The reason you put the polling out much more so than the other side is the numbers look good for you and you want to push it on the public. Clearly Democrats think the numbers are looking pretty gosh darn good for them. And you know what? When you get stuff like this, when you get 70 percent plus of the internal polls coming from the Democratic side, look at this, look at this, what were the years?

[09:35:02]

Well, it was 2006. Hey, that was a pretty big Democratic wave. How about 2018? They picked up 40 seats in the House of Representatives. And now we're seeing it in 2026. So, the last few times that Democrats were putting out this large of a share of the internal polling, it was indicative of a blue wave. That is why we're saying these inside voices. It is a blue wave. The inside -- the calls from inside the House are saying, Democrats are going to do extremely well, at least when we look back at history to comparable years such as 2026.

BERMAN: It's the call coming from inside the house? You never use your inside voice.

Harry Enten only has -- only has his outside voice.

ENTEN: I -- hello! Hello!

BERMAN: All right, what are the prediction markets right now saying about the House chances?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. I would just tell you, it matches. It matches what we're seeing in the internal polling. I mean just take a look here. OK, the chance that Democrats win the House. You know, you go back a month ago, it was an 85 percent chance. Now it's a 90 percent chance. I mean, it's nine in ten. Is it 100 percent? No. But you would definitely want to take those odds if you were the Democrats at this particular point, at least according to the Kalshi prediction market.

BERMAN: And in terms of the number of seats that Democrats, or in this case Republicans, might end up with, what are the prediction markets saying?

ENTEN: Remember, you want to be at 218. That is a majority. But at this point it looks like, at least according to the Kalshi prediction market, Republicans are not going to be anywhere near, near 218. The chance that the Republicans win at least 206 House seats is all the way down to just 23 percent. It's likely to convert that into another way, that Democrats will end up, at least according to the Kalshi prediction markets, at 230 plus House seats. In other words, this isn't just barely getting across the finish line. What we're seeing right now in the data is Democrats will go way past the finish line. As I said, maybe not using my inside voice, but using my internal sources, that Democrats are heading for that blue wave that Republicans might, in fact, find that blue water just weighing them down.

BERMAN: And this would be a substantially bigger margin than Republicans enjoy now.

ENTEN: Correct. They -- their -- Republicans have only been at 220. And this is Democrats at least being at two-thirds.

BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much.

ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.

BERMAN: We have a lot of news this morning. We'll be right back.

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[09:41:31]

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: This morning, police in Michigan are investigating whether they have a possible serial killer on their hands after a string of reported deaths along a popular river trail.

CNN's Randi Kaye has been looking into this and has more on this for us.

Randi, what is happening here?

RANDI KAYE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, it's really disturbing, Kate. Five men found dead. It's all happening in Lansing, Michigan. And authorities believe that these men might have been targeted. They're not going so far as to say there is a serial killer, but it's certainly something that they are looking into.

All of the victims have in common the fact that they are unhoused. So, they're sleeping along the riverbanks. They don't have anywhere else to go to. So, the investigators say they do see a pattern, possibly, of someone targeting white, unhoused men and possibly a serial killer.

This 20-mile stretch of riverbank is paved. It's a place where these men have been sleeping. So, it's -- they were all found along the same trail. And three out of five of these cases have been ruled a homicide.

So, let me just tell you what some of the injuries are. This is pretty serious. One was found unconscious with a head trauma and a crushed skull. Others had stab wounds, broken ribs, facial lacerations and other broken bones.

And the mayor is saying that the area is safe, but the police chief has said that these attacks happened likely overnight and that they happened while these men were certainly laying down and maybe even sleeping.

Here's a little bit more of what the police chief had to say about the idea of this possible serial killer.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Outside of these five events, we have no other assaultive-related deaths on the river trail. One question that we are being asked is, do we have a serial killer in Lansing? What we need the public to know is that we are investigating all of these cases. They are all active investigations. And we are looking at the idea or the possibility that these may be related cases.

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KAYE: And what's really interesting, Kate, is that the first attack happened in October last year. And then something like 268 days passed, and now these other four attacks.

BOLDUAN: Oh, really.

KAYE: So, they're not sure exactly what's going on. There aren't any cameras -- there weren't any cameras in that area. Certainly no witnesses. Now they've put in more cameras. They have patrols going on at night.

They do have one suspect in custody who they think might be related to one of the attacks, but they're not sure if that person could be related to the others. That person is under evaluation and still in custody. And they have added, as I said, some cameras to the area, and they're certainly talking to anybody who might have seen anything.

BOLDUAN: Yes, absolutely. But a lot of questions. Clearly a lot of concern. You can even hear from the police there about how this could possibly all be connected.

KAYE: Yes.

BOLDUAN: Thanks so much, Randi.

KAYE: Sure.

BOLDUAN: Sara.

SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right, thank you, Kate.

Coming up, an ultramarathon becomes an ultra mess. Dozens of runners stranded in some pretty wild weather in Utah. How they made it out.

And who won? No one. One team's mistake leading to a coach's sideline meltdown in the Washington Commanders versus New York Giants game.

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[09:49:20] BOLDUAN: So, some breaking news coming in as we speak. Learning that federal officers have conducted a search and did so early today at the home of Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar.

CNN's Katelyn Polantz is gathering the details on this for us and joins us now.

Katelyn, what are you learning?

KATELYN POLANTZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Kate, we're learning bits and pieces of what's happening here. But there is a search that was going on this morning, or is going on still, at the home of Ilhan Omar, the Democratic representative from Minnesota, who is also running again for Congress in the middle of this election season. This would be her D.C. area home.

[09:50:01]

And the confirmation we've gotten of this is from the Justice Department itself. Them saying that the Justice Department secured a court authorized search warrant and that Homeland Security investigators would be the agency that is conducting this search this morning.

We don't have much more indication on exactly what this is, but it appears to be some level of an immigration investigation, given that it's Homeland Security doing this and also some of the statements that are coming out, out of the White House, specifically by White House border czar Tom Homan.

Here he is speaking to Fox News when asked about Representative Ilhan Omar.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TOM HOMAN, WHITE HOUSE BORDER CZAR: Well, I'm not going to get ahead of Todd Blanche on this or Secretary Mullin. But we know this investigation was ongoing for a while. There was a warrant executed this morning. And so, I'll leave it at that. The specifics of the investigation, I think I need to get -- turn that over to Todd Blanche or Markwayne Mullin. I don't want to get ahead of them in commenting on an ongoing investigation.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Got it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

POLANTZ: Now, there have been allegations from Republicans and including from homar -- from Tom Homan, the White House border czar, that there could be some level of immigration fraud. We don't have any of that substantiated at this time. And there haven't been any criminal charges or other immigration enforcement actions against Representative Omar.

So, this is an ongoing situation, and we're still seeing exactly what would come. But it is quite notable. It's in the middle of an election season. And that this is a sitting member of Congress running for re- election.

BOLDUAN: I was going to ask more about that, Katelyn, because it being so close to an election, there are -- there are, generally speaking, we've seen this discussed and very much highlighted in terms of past investigations and what does or should happen within a certain number of days of an election. What is the Justice Department saying about this?

POLANTZ: Right. Well, Kate, there's a long standing policy at the Department of Justice. It's not a hard and fast rule, but it is a policy that the Department of Justice needs to take a lot of precautions in the 60 days before an election. We are well into that. We are not even a month away, and there is early voting happening across the country at this time for this election. Primary season is largely over.

It is unusual for the Justice Department to make such a -- what they would call an overt investigative step. And the Justice Department has all kinds of checks internally to make sure that there's sign off if there is going to be a step taken, like a search or like charges filed in a moment when it could influence an election so close to an election.

On top of that, there's also special Department of Justice policies around searching or charging or investigating sitting members of Congress -- members of Congress. That would certainly apply here. We don't know where the sign off was within the Justice Department, but this is a really interesting situation, politically charged, and also something that the Trump administration has been touting that they wanted to see for a long time.

BOLDUAN: Yes, many -- lots of questions here and lots more detail to learn of what happened -- what happened this morning, and what -- and what even may be still unfolding as we speak.

Katelyn, thank you very much for that.

Katelyn Polantz all over this breaking news for us.

John.

BERMAN: All right, so Pope Leo says he needs surgery to remove a lung nodule. It was found during recent health checks and was caught at a very early stage, he says. The 71-year-old is expected to undergo the procedure early next week and spend a week in the hospital recovering. The Vatican says it will operate as normal during that recovery.

And the Utah backcountry. A powerful storm stranded dozens of ultramarathon runners and volunteers. Organizers say about 70 people taking part in a 240-mile race near Moab got stuck when severe weather washed out roads and cut off access to the course. Eventually, everyone was able to be brought to safety, but organizers called off the rest of the race because of the dangerous weather. Probably a good idea.

Wild end to an NFL rivalry game. The Washington Commanders were positioned to kick a game winning field goal in overtime against the Giants, but quarterback Jayden Daniels was tackled with just eight -- seven seconds left. And then with no time outs, Washington couldn't stop the clock. Was it Jayden Daniels' fault? Was it the Commanders' coach? They're all to blame. It's bad football. The game ended in a 27-27 tie. Daniels says, quote, ultimately, it's on me.

SIDNER: Brutal.

BOLDUAN: I still don't really understand what just -- what just happened in that game.

BERMAN: So, there were no time-outs left.

BOLDUAN: Yes.

BERMAN: And the quarterback, if you throw an incomplete pass, it stops the clock, right?

BOLDUAN: Yes. Yes.

BERMAN: But if you get tackled on the field without going out of bounds, the clock still runs.

[09:55:02]

BOLDUAN: I -- but my point is, they should know the rules.

BERMAN: Exactly. Well said.

BOLDUAN: OK.

SIDNER: And that's why there was a meltdown on the sideline.

BERMAN: That's what happened.

SIDNER: All right, this has been CNN NEWS CENTRAL. "THE SITUATION ROOM" is up next.

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