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Larry Sabato is Interviewed about the Midterm Elections; Huge Swings in New York Voting; Breast Cancer Recovery Doesn't End with Treatment. Aired 9:30-10a ET
Aired October 14, 2026 - 09:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:30:00]
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Kate, good morning.
I mean the fact that this race here in Texas is at the center of the fight for control of the Senate really is a metaphor for this entire year for Republicans as they are scrambling to hold seats in deep red states, like here in Texas. But this town hall meeting this evening here in the Fort Worth area is going to be quite extraordinary because James Talarico, who, of course, is a state lawmaker, who's really captured so much attention in this political cycle by Democrats really giving them hope and optimism for the perhaps -- the chance of winning this seat, and for Republicans going after him. It's going to be interesting tonight because he will hear and take questions directly from voters.
This is no ordinary town hall that we've seen so many times. Yes, he'll be asked questions about the news of the day, but also voters will directly be able to ask him questions in a segment that's called "Change my Mind." So, he is going to hear directly from voters, undecided voters, as well as Democrats and Republicans. And that is really the strategy here that he's trying to build this coalition of Democrats, of course, but also some Republicans who are frustrated with what's going on in the economy, the direction of the country, but also disappointed in the Republican nominee, the state attorney general here, Ken Paxton, who Republicans are trying to prop up and rescue to the tune of $232 million has been spent on this race from September 1st through Election Day. That's almost three and a half times more than Democrats are spending.
So, Kate, the bottom line for this Texas Senate race, it is a half a billion dollars has been spent here by both sides. We've never seen anything like it. And the town hall tonight certainly will be interesting hearing from voters directly asking questions of their candidate.
Kate.
KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Yes, it really is an unbelievable amount of money that is flowing in there.
It's great to see you, Jeff. Thank you so much. And a reminder, as you can see an image of it right here, tonight,
Senate candidate James Talarico facing Texas voter's questions and those from Erin Burnett. She'll be moderating the CNN and Jubilee town hall at 8 p.m., followed by post-show coverage with Kaitlan Collins and "The Source" at 9:30 on CNN and streaming live with all -- an All Access subscription.
Sara.
SARA SIDNER, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Thank you so much, Kate.
Joining me now to discuss is Larry Sabato, the director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia and the mind behind "Sabato's Crystal Ball," the election forecast that political junkies really enjoy and use.
All right, let me ask you about this. We just got this brand-new Consumer Price Index report out. It shows that inflation actually is hot. It went up faster than expected. Could this be the final blow to Republicans who are in really close races? Or since people are already feeling this, they don't need the report to tell them that they are having trouble with high prices. Is it already kind of factored in?
LARRY SABATO, DIRECTOR, CENTER FOR POLITICS, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: Well, it's partly factored in, Sara, but you put your finger on it. This is why I got up early. Usually, I get up early to find out what the latest polls are. I got up early to make sure I found out what this report showed. I think this could be the final blow to the Republican hopes of maintaining Congress.
Now, almost everybody in this field thinks that the House is going Democratic. We argue about how many seats. At the "Crystal Ball," we believe there will be at least 230 Democratic House seats. Remember, 218 is a majority. So, 230 is comfortable. And it's important because it gives the leadership in the House, Hakeem Jeffries and others, the flexibility perhaps to alienate a few on the left or in the middle about something and still prevail, at least in the House.
As for the Senate, what is -- what's fascinating about this year, Sara, is that there are so many incredibly close races in Republican states. And the reason you haven't seen houses like mine call them is because they tend Republican. The fundamentals are Republican. But reports like this one tell you that some of those people who vote Republican or are trying to decide whether to vote are instead going to either vote Democratic or not show up for the Republicans. And that's what will switch seats.
SIDNER: Yes, I mean, we're seeing these margins of errors in places like, you know, Georgia -- places like Texas that are so, so, so tight within a couple of points. So, it's very hard to sort of predict who is going to come out the victor.
I do want to ask you about something that you all have on your side. You said Democrats, of course, need to gain four Senate seats to control the Senate. Of the red states where the Senate is in play, you've argued that Alaska could be the most promising for Democrats. Why do you think that?
SABATO: Well, we have some very good sources in Alaska, and we have private polls that suggest, and you never want to rely just on one poll.
[09:35:06]
You want to get as many as you can. And soundings from people who've worked in Alaska politics for decades. You know, they actually know a lot. It's not all about numbers. And there is a movement in Alaska, which we're now seeing in other states. I mean, Kansas, for God's sakes, Nebraska, and certainly Ohio and Iowa and other states. You know, there can be sleepers. We always forget this time of the year. There's a sleeper or two out there that's going to develop between now and November 3rd.
And they're all moving in the same direction. They don't move at the same pace. Some may reverse. You can reverse course depending on the updraft or downdraft and the key issues at the end. And we now have prices. We -- that's over with, you know. And the war, I suppose we could have an ending to the war. Doubtful. Corruption. We see pretty much a corruption story every day. It all fits together, and it's all bad for Republicans.
SIDNER: Larry Sabato, thank you for walking us through all that. Everybody is watching, reading what you've got there, looking at the predictions. But as you said, a lot of them are just too close to call. We're just going to have to wait for the next 20 days to see what the voters actually do.
Thank you so much for joining us this morning. It's great to have you.
John.
JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right, more and more cases of breast cancer being diagnosed. But there is a silver lining, more people are surviving.
And then the battle to save a town from a runaway inflatable pumpkin.
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[09:41:09]
BERMAN: This morning we're seeing some huge swings among a voting bloc in a certain state that we are residing in right now. I'm talking about Jewish voters. No state has more Jewish voters than the state of New York.
With us now, CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten.
So, talk to me about what you're seeing among Jewish voters here.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: Yes, you know, as Johnny B. said, there is no state in which Jewish voters make up a larger share of the vote than they do in New York. Republicans have made a real play for them. On the issue of Israel, we have seen Democrats sort of shift away, become more pro-Palestinian in the polling. And you can see it right here. I mean these are -- this is a trend. I mean this is a huge trend. And this is averaged across the -- this is Siena polling. New York governor races, this is Jewish voters. You know, Andrew Cuomo was leading amongst them by 55 points back in 2018. In 2022, look at this, Kathy Hochul by 51.
Look at this lead now. Look at this lead now. Yes. Kathy Hochul is ahead. But she's only ahead by 13 points. We're talking about a swing here, Johnny B., of what, 38 points downward towards the Republicans when it comes to Jewish voters. So, it definitely seems to me that the developments over the past few years, at least in New York state, have had a tremendous impact on how Jewish voters say that they're going to vote in the governor's race here in New York.
BERMAN: And it's not just the governor's race, is it?
ENTEN: It is not just the governor's race. I mean take a look. OK, take a look at your generic ballot, right. State of New York. U.S. House polling among Jewish voters. Look at this. In 2018, Democrats were ahead by 40 points. In 2022, 49 points. Look at this, the average of polls this year, its just 13 points. It's just 13 points. That is a shift of, what, 36 points Thirty-six points away from the Democrats. Their lead is absolutely tumbled into the Hudson River among Jewish voters. Yes, they are still ahead. But we are talking about historically strong numbers for Republicans among Jewish voters. It definitely seems to me that the developments over the past few years, at least in New York, at least in this polling, has had a huge impact on how Jewish voters say they are going to vote, not just for governor, but for Congress as well.
BERMAN: What are the views of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani?
ENTEN: Yes, I mean, what role is Zohran Mamdani playing on this, right? Obviously, him and his views on Bibi Netanyahu and the state of Israel don't line up necessarily with many Jewish New Yorkers.
And take a look here. Net favorability in New York state. You got all voters here and you got Jewish voters here. Look, Mamdani, among all voters, is at plus eight. You see Kathy Hochul at just plus one. But look, among Jewish voters. She's actually slightly more popular among Jewish voters than she is among all voters at plus eight points. But look at this. Look at this difference. Zohran Mamdani at negative 23 points. He is, what, 31 points lower among Jewish voters than he is among all voters in the state of New York. There is, when you look at this data, really little doubt in my mind that views towards Zohran Mamdani, a Democratic mayor of New York City, are definitely, in my mind, shifting views among Jewish voters on how they're going to say to vote. What share of that it is, you can't say, but.
BERMAN: Very interesting contrast there. Very interesting contrast.
OK, there is one congressional district. A very swing district, very swingy district, in the state of New York, New York 17. Mike Lawler, the Republican incumbent. There are a lot of Jewish voters in that district. What are the prediction markets saying there? ENTEN: Yes, I mean, look, it's a very close race in a district that
Kamala Harris actually won by a little less than a percentage point. Take a look here. Chance to win New York 17, a very Jewish district. Look, it's pretty tight according to the Kalshi prediction markets. Mike Lawler here with a 39 percent chance. A slight underdog here. But the fact that he has a chance in a district that Kamala Harris slightly won despite all the national polling showing and the statewide polling showing that Democrats are going to win statewide, to me is an indication that Jewish voters, if in fact they vote the way that the polls say, they may just save Mike Lawler's seat in Congress for him.
BERMAN: Harry Enten, thank you very much.
ENTEN: Thank you, my friend.
BERMAN: There is a lot of news this morning. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:49:29]
BOLDUAN: Moments ago we received a health update on Pope Leo. He underwent surgery and doctors removed, as you know, part of his right lung in the procedure and has now confirmed that he has lung cancer. Doctors just said that he has underwent blood tests today and his recovery is proceeding as expected. He has begun walking around his hospital room, according to the reports, and resumed a regular diet, eating breakfast and lunch. His public engagements, we do know, have been canceled for at least the next week.
And the so-called pharma bro, Martin Shkreli, is back on the radar of federal authorities.
[09:50:05]
The FTC and attorneys general from seven states now accuse him of repeatedly violating a court order that had barred him from the pharmaceutical industry following his release from prison. He's apparently been livestreaming his trades on YouTube and showing off his gains. The A.G.'s now want a judge to hold him in contempt, find the profits he's made on the trades and even potentially send him back to prison if he doesn't stop.
Sara.
SIDNER: All right, thank you, Kate.
This morning, breast cancer rates are increasing by about a percent per year in the United States. But some encouraging news, survival rates way up. The overall five-year relative survival rate for all stages of breast cancer in the U.S. is now at 92 percent according to the American Cancer Society.
But there is an issue for many survivors. There can be so many hurdles in aftercare due to side effects from things like medication, radiation, surgeries and the overall mental toll of treatment. From medically induced menopause, to brain fog, fatigue, joint pain, breast cancer survivors quickly learned that their journey does not simply end with treatment.
Joining me now is Lorraine Frazier. She is the dean of the School of Nursing at Columbia University and a breast cancer survivor herself.
First, let's talk about your diagnosis because it is a lesson for other people.
LORRAINE FRAZIER, DEAN, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF NURSING: Yes.
SIDNER: You got your mammograms regularly, as I did.
FRAZIER: Yes.
SIDNER: But they didn't, as in mine as well, detect cancer.
FRAZIER: Right.
SIDNER: So, you found it on your own. I also found mine. What is the advice to women right now?
FRAZIER: You know, self breast exam. Do it. It was very disappointing that they didn't find it. They do a much better job today. In 2024, they changed the requirements and guidelines. If you have dense breasts, that they must do further diagnostics on you. That would have helped me and probably you. So, today, fortunately, that is not going to happen. But it was -- yes.
SIDNER: Yes, really surprising when you get the test and you think you're OK.
FRAZIER: Yes, you do.
SIDNER: And then you feel something, you're like, this isn't right. But you knew to go to the doctor.
FRAZIER: Yes.
SIDNER: Now people know to say, hey, if I have dense breasts, ask for that ultrasound if it is not offered to you.
FRAZIER: That's right. That's right.
SIDNER: What did you struggle with after treatment? And what are some things that you have learned as a nurse and as a breast cancer survivor that are key to really helping you thrive and not just survive afterwards? A lot of people think, OK, great, cancer free, you're done .But you're not done.
FRAZIER: No. I struggled with understanding my risk. You know, I was high risk initially, but the treatment changed that. And to really accept that my risk had decreased, that's a journey because we all think cancer is the end, right? And it is not the end. And I think it's a journey of really managing risk as a survivor. Risk for recurrence, of course. There are things that we can do. So, I focus on what I could do. And you know what? I feel so much better. And for survivors, it may be bone health.
SIDNER: Yes.
FRAZIER: Exercising is the most important thing. But before that is following medical advice. Taking those medicines that make you feel maybe not as good as you want to. If you're struggling with that, talk to your physician. Talk to your oncologist. They may be able to change it.
The good news is that on the horizon is another type of medicine that will really lower estrogen in another way, that will not maybe have those same side effects. So, you know, I think about, don't expect issues. Go into them. You've never had this medicine before. Other people may have the side effects. You may not. I think we focus a lot on side effects, but there are many people that are able to take these medications very well.
SIDNER: And as you said, there are new medications coming.
FRAZIER: Yes, that's right.
SIDNER: Because a lot of people suffer with things like --
FRAZIER: Joint pain.
SIDNER: Joint pain is a big one.
FRAZIER: Yes. Yes.
SIDNER: And fatigue and brain fog is another big one.
FRAZIER: Yes. Yes.
SIDNER: And sometimes there are -- there are very many patients who will get off the medicine, but then that heightens your risk, right?
FRAZIER: No, do not do that.
SIDNER: And so that's what you're advising not to do.
FRAZIER: No.
SIDNER: What does the body of research tell you about physical activity and survival rates?
FRAZIER: You know, that's so exciting. If there were a pill that affected survival rates, like exercise, we would take it every day.
SIDNER: Should be prescribed is what you're saying.
FRAZIER: Yes. Yes. Yes.
SIDNER: Yes. FRAZIER: And so we know the challenge study from colon cancer was a randomized trial that really saw the decrease -- increased survival with exercise. What we need to do for breast cancer is we know, from many, many observational studies, exercise increases survival and decreases recurrence.
[09:55:01]
So, that doesn't mean that if I exercise I will never have recurrence.
SIDNER: Right.
FRAZIER: But it means you can help manage your risk.
SIDNER: I do want to read from the World Cancer Research Fund here. It said the most physically active breast cancer survivors had an estimated 44 percent lower risk of dying from any cause, and a 42 percent lower risk of dying from breast cancer, compared with the least active women. I mean, that is a huge, huge number.
FRAZIER: It is.
SIDNER: And, you know, as you said, maybe this should be prescribed.
FRAZIER: Absolutely.
SIDNER: Exercise should be a basic prescription to say, hey, if you do this, you have a much better chance of survival and feeling better.
FRAZIER: Yes. Oh, and we feel so much better.
SIDNER: I know that for sure. Yes.
FRAZIER: I've never been in better shape.
SIDNER: Yes.
FRAZIER: And don't think you have to join a gym. It can be walking in your neighborhood. It can be initially just moving around your home.
SIDNER: Yes.
FRAZIER: Doing your own housework. Do not -- the most important thing about exercise is consistency. So, it's something you do continually.
SIDNER: Regularly, yes.
FRAZIER: Not thinking about it or not just joining a gym. But do something.
SIDNER: Just go for a walk.
FRAZIER: Yes.
SIDNER: Yes.
FRAZIER: That you can continue.
SIDNER: Dr. Lorraine Frazier, it is such a pleasure to have you. Thank you so much.
FRAZIER: Thank you.
SIDNER: "SIT ROOM" is up next.
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