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CNN's Battleground Road Trip Kicks Off; Trump Touts Oil Profits While Campaigning; Polls on Democrats and the Midterms; A.I. Giant Anthropic Files for IPO. Aired 9:30-10a ET

Aired October 26, 2026 - 09:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:30:00]

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: And voters. Today there is new polling data out on four critical districts that could determine control of the House. All in Pennsylvania. This is coming from "The New York Times"/Siena poll which shows Democrats have a slight lead in three of the four key districts in Pennsylvania. But it is all quite close. The last one, a dead heat.

Omar Jimenez joining us live in Philadelphia with much more. And a beautiful day to boot.

Omar, what's happening there?

OMA JIMENEZ, CNN ANCHOR AND CORRESPONDENT: OK, so what we are doing is we're getting ready to go on this road trip. We're going to live stream all of it all through Pennsylvania, Ohio and Michigan. You were talking about some of those Pennsylvania districts that are really critical. We're going to be going to two of them a little bit later this afternoon. So that's PA district one and district seven. Some really, really close races there as you were just showing some of the polling.

And what we're trying to do is, look, we're at Independence Hall in Philadelphia. For those who don't know, arguably one of the most important buildings in terms of American independence. And we're trying to showcase some of what voters think, but also some of what makes these places really unique. And you're talking about a beautiful fall day. That's why I did it in the fall. Yes, it's less -- it's close to the midterms. But if you're going to go on a road trip through this part of the country, you want to do it wearing sweaters, you want to do it with the leaves falling down.

And we're hoping that by talking to these voters and also exploring some of what makes these places unique, that we capture some of what's actually behind all of this polling that we've been seeing, caring about the economy. We're going to some farms to talk about diesel prices being high. To a factory later today in one of those critical Pennsylvania districts that's been dealing with tariffs as well.

So, the hope is we get you what you need so you can help understand what's happening in the lead up to these very critical midterms.

BOLDUAN: And you want to go about it and trying to get past kind of -- just -- and get past the rhetoric. What are you hoping and how are you hoping to speak with voters this time, Omar?

JIMENEZ: Yes. Well, one, it's going to be live streamed the entire time. We are going to be streaming at least seven hours a day, Monday through Friday. So, every time I go up to someone and ask them if they want to do an interview, you get to see me get rejected eight out of ten times, usually just the two are what make it to TV. So, you get to see some of those authentic interactions.

But also, I think the real main thing with this is to just get behind, not just the headlines, but to show people that it's not always just about the horse race of politics. Who's going to win this. Who's going to win that. There are people just trying to figure out how to get to the next day. In terms of some of these farms, it's not just one issue they're dealing with, whether it's diesel prices or tariffs, it's multifaceted. And so, some of their interests and what they care about in this election aren't as black and white as you might think. And that's our hypothesis in this. And we are hoping to prove that out as we go to some of these very unique places. And just stop on the side of the road. And, you know, all those places you see on the -- on the highway that you might just keep going past on your way to the next town. We're going to stop in and see what some of those places look like.

So, hopefully, some fun stuff. Off to a great start here in Philadelphia. But fun stuff ahead as well, Kate. And we'll be headed to Michigan later on too. So, send us your suggestions. Where should we go?

BOLDUAN: Ive got -- I have -- I have a plenty.

JIMENEZ: Hey, send them my way.

BOLDUAN: Omar Jimenez, streaming for hours and hours every day. I am here for this. It's going to be, I'm sure, fun. It's involving you and your crew. And also it's going to be some really interesting conversations.

It's great to see you, buddy. Thank you.

John.

BERMAN: Yes, and I'm not sure Omar has to deal with much rejection. Let's just -- let's just throw that out there.

All right, with us now, Democratic strategist, former White House deputy assistant to President Clinton, Matt Bennett, and former presidential campaign manager for Marco Rubio, Terry Sullivan.

And I want to talk about closing messages here, because we're kind of in the closing messages phase. And the president has been out campaigning. In one case, he was out campaigning in Georgia, in the Senate and the gubernatorial race there. And this is what he had to say over the weekend about gas prices.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: What we've done for this country, we're making money like this country has never made before.

No, I could just see the fake headlines. President Trump is talking about all the money they're making while people are suffering at the pump. That will be the headline. But I said, I don't give a damn. I'm going to say it. We're making a freaking fortune. Our country is getting stronger and stronger all the time. And those pump prices are going to come down.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So, Terry, one of Donald Trump's true political gifts, and I mean this, and you saw it in the 2016 campaign, was his ability to frame an election the way he wants to. Now my question is, is he framing this election the way he wants to, or are the issues framing him?

TERRY SULLIVAN, FORMER MARCO RUBIO PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Well, look, I think he's doing his best to frame it the way he wants to. You know, a lot of us political experts would say this is not what you should say. I think that was what he was saying. What he -- what he said. I don't give a damn. It was in reference to his political consultants telling him not to talk about gas prices. He has had a long career of ignoring the advice of political experts and done pretty well doing it.

[09:35:05]

So, I think he's going on his gut. His goal is to go out and turn out the base right now. He's not going to -- he's not going to, you know, persuade swing voters or folks who don't like him. He's got to energize the base and the Republican base is deflated right now. It is traditional with midterms, and he's trying to do that.

BERMAN: How much do you want him talking about gas prices, Matt Bennett?

MATT BENNETT, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: I mean, John, we don't have a better surrogate out there right now than Donald Trump for Democrats. He's doing our business every single day. And while I agree with Terry, that Trump has been very effective at making the case for himself and -- when he's been on the ballot, he's been really ineffective at making the case for other Republicans. I mean he got blown out pretty bad in 2018. And I think if you talk off the record to pretty much any Republican running a race right now, they are very unhappy with the messages they're getting from Trump. Not only is he conceding races like he did in North Carolina last week where he basically said that Democrats were going to win the Senate race there, but he's talking about things in ways that are extremely unhelpful for Republicans and very helpful for us.

BERMAN: All right, you saw me shifting to Michigan here in the campaign where president -- former President Obama and President Trump were over the weekend in this Senate race with Abdul El-Sayed against Mike Rogers.

I want to play, again, in terms of closing messages, how the president chose to talk about this race and how Abdul El-Sayed responded.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm here to keep a jihadist Muslim Brotherhood member from becoming a United States senator.

ABDUL EL-SAYED (D), MICHIGAN SENATE CANDIDATE: I don't even care that he remembers my whole name, because he can just go on and call me senator after November. I'll be Senator Muhammad to you, bro.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: Abdul El-Sayed is neither a jihadist nor a member of the Muslim Brotherhood.

But, Matt, I wanted to put this to you first, and then, Terry, I want to have you weigh in because I'm not sure Abdul El-Sayed, Matt, was the candidate you preferred in the Michigan Democratic primary, but he is now the candidate you have.

So, when you see that dueling messaging there, which, to a certain extent, I think was inevitable with President Trump, how successful do you think it might be?

BENNETT: I don't think that Trump, using kind of this racist undertone directed at Dr. El-Sayed is going to be all that successful. I think it's a very tight race. It's a race that might not have been tight, for example, if Gary Peters had run for re-election, but it's tight because El-Sayed has taken some positions that are a little bit farther left. And Michigan is, of course, a very purple state that Trump won two years ago. So, it's a tough race. But El-Sayed is running a pretty good one. And I think if he can keep the focus on the things that are working for Democrats, like affordability, he will win. But if it is a referendum on him, that makes it tougher. So, I think that's what Trump's trying to do. But in his inimitable style, he's kind of bringing it back to himself. And that's probably helpful for El-Sayed.

BERMAN: I will say, what is notable to me, Terry, is that President Trump is taking the message about Abdul El-Sayed to other states. He's carrying Abdul El-Sayed to other states besides Michigan. So, clearly, he thinks it's an effective attack, not just there, but elsewhere as well.

SULLIVAN: Look, El-Sayed is an extreme candidate with extreme views. Even the Democrats didn't work very hard. The Democrat establishment worked very hard to try to beat him. And he doesn't fit in with Michigan values. I've done races in Michigan. He doesn't fit in with Michigan values. It's shocking that in this environment it's even a close race. I think Matt would have to agree with that.

Generally, in midterm elections, the president's party loses seats. I mean, Matt probably remembers the '96, Bill Clinton lost 54 seats.

BERMAN: '94.

SULLIVAN: Barack Obama lost 63 seats. Historically, it's 26 seats the number of, you know. So, it's one of those things where he's taken the message to the voters to try to mitigate the losses that are historically normal.

BERMAN: Yes. No, absolutely. Almost every midterm election a president does lose seats. It was '94 for President Clinton.

SULLIVAN: '94, correct.

BERMAN: And which Matt can tell you, I'm sure.

Matt Bennett, Terry Sullivan, great to see you. Thank you very much.

All right, the breaking news, A.I. giant Anthropic files for an IPO. How will questions about A.I. safety affect what could be one of the largest stock market debuts in history?

And that a car slams into the door of a stopped patrol cruiser, just as the deputy was about to step out.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:44:10]

BOLDUAN: Eight days out. Eight days out and all the smart money is saying that Democrats are poised for big wins in the House and possibly the Senate. And then you have the Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson, saying, don't believe the polls.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. MIKE JOHNSON (R-LA): I've been in 21 states, 39 districts, just in the last three weeks. I'm going to the swing districts, the places where we're going to flip blue seats to red, and we're having hundreds of people turn out for these events. It's excitement level like 2024.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: CNN's Harry Enten is looking at that. So, when it comes down to it, Harry, do the polls underestimate Republicans?

HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: You know, I think there's this whole idea out there. You know what, the polling, it always underestimates the Republicans. You know what I actually decided to do? I decided to go into the spreadsheets and see, is that actually true?

[09:45:01]

And I'm going to look at Senate races, because that's ultimately where I think most of our eyes will be on election night. And I want you to take a look right here. Which party beat their final

Senate poll averages, close races since 1998. You know what the party that more frequently actually beat their final polling averages in the United States Senate? Fifty-four percent of the time it was Democrats who beat their final poll averages versus 46 percent of the time it was Republicans. So, there's, in fact, over the long term, no real sign that there is a systematic bias against Republicans in the polling. Democrats, Kate Bolduan, have actually beat their final numbers in the polling more often than Republicans have.

BOLDUAN: How does that apply or look when you talk specifically about midterm elections since Trump has been around?

ENTEN: OK, there's the question. There's the question, Kate Bolduan, right there asking it. Because what are we talking about? We're talking about a 2026 election, right? We're talking about a midterm. We're talking about in the Trump era. So, what happens in the Trump era? Well, why don't we take a look at this? Dems beat their final Senate poll averages. The final ten day average in close races.

Look at this. In 2018, in 57 percent of the races Democrats actually beat the final polling averages. That's more than Republicans. What about in 2022? One hundred percent of the races Democrats beat their final Senate poll averages. So, in midterms, during the Trump era, in fact what we see in those close Senate races, Democrats are actually more likely to beat their final poll averages than Republicans are.

BOLDUAN: You're talking Senate races here, but what about in statewide races, governors races, since, you know, in this era?

ENTEN: Yes, OK. So, why don't we talk about, you know, since Trump was re-elected, right, back in 2024, we had those gubernatorial elections last year, right? Virginia. New Jersey. Well, what happened in them? Well, actually, the Democrats, they not only beat their polling averages in those gubernatorial races, in fact, for off year gubernatorial elections, the most that they have ever beat their polling averages was last year in New Jersey, in Virginia, by an average, a little nugget, coming to Kate's side of the screen, by an average of 7.5 points. So, what we've actually seen since Trump was re-elected back in 2024, the two major statewide elections, Democrats didn't just very much beat their polling averages, they did so to a historic degree.

BOLDUAN: OK, so there seems to be a bit of a disconnect between the narratives and what the spreadsheets say.

ENTEN: Yes.

BOLDUAN: But what are the prediction markets saying about this?

ENTEN: So, OK. So, I think what's so important here is Republicans, of course, they are the ones who need to beat their polling averages because you can see it right here in the prediction markets, what do the prediction markets say? They say the Democrats are favored. The chance that Democrats will win the Senate in 2026, according to the Kalshi prediction market, a year ago it was 28 percent. Up like a rocket. We're talking about a two in three possibility right in there right now, 64 percent chance.

So, Republicans are the ones who have to beat their polling averages. And history says, you know what, you shouldn't count on that because Democrats have actually been the ones more likely to do so in midterms during the Trump era.

BOLDUAN: Fascinating. Thank you, Harry.

ENTEN: Thank you, Kate.

BOLDUAN: We'll be right back. A lot of news to come.

ENTEN: Woo.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:52:36]

BERMAN: Police in California say they arrested a man suspected of stealing Hot Wheels cars worth an estimated $54,000. The man allegedly stole 350 boxes of them from a freight train. He's now facing charges, including grand theft, although not "Grand Theft Auto," even though they were Hot Wheels. Police say a 911 call tipped them off.

In Texas, a vehicle sideswiped a police cruiser just as a deputy was about to get out. That deputy pulled over to the side of the road with his emergency lights on to help another investigating a suspected drunk driver. Deputies say the driver that hit the patrol car kept going but was later arrested.

In Maryland, a hunter was rescued after falling out of a tree stand and getting stuck upside down. Crews used a helicopter and specialized ladder to get him down. I guess that's the guy. The man was taken to a hospital for treatment.

Kate.

BOLDUAN: So, just out this morning, A.I. giant Anthropic has now filed for its initial public offering and is moving forward with it. This could become one of the biggest stock market debuts in history.

CNN's Clare Duffy joins us now for more on this.

This has been much talked about, and now they're moving forward with it.

CLARE DUFFY, CNN TECH REPORTER: Yes, this is huge, Kate, because this is the first major A.I. lab that will be going public. And so, it really is going to test the market's appetite for artificial intelligence in this time when there is a lot of question about how much these big A.I. companies are spending on compute infrastructure and whether the business could really keep up with that. And also at a time when many people are asking serious questions about the risks from artificial intelligence, including researchers and executives from within Anthropic. And as you said, this could become one of the biggest stock market

debuts in history. Anthropic did not say exactly how many shares it plans to list or for what price, but there are reports out there that this could raise as much -- this could value the company at as much as $2 trillion, which would instantly make Anthropic one of the biggest companies in the world.

What investors will be looking very closely at here is the business numbers, of course. The company posted revenue in the first six months of this year up 13,000 percent to $16.3 billion. So, revenue growing very quickly.

[09:55:00]

At the same time, the company is shelling out a ton of money. The company posted an $80 billion net loss in the first six months of the year. Now, not all of that is spending on A.I. infrastructure. A lot of that is sort of accounting adjustments they're having to make ahead of going public. But still, the company losing a lot more money than it is bringing in.

The other thing that makes this sort of a unique S-1 filing, IPO filing, is the risk factors. Now, most companies talk about risk factors like competition. Anthropic does that here. It has competition from other A.I. labs. But the risk factors in this S-1 are 93 pages. And they include everything from, as I said, that competition, to, quote, "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity from this technology." They talk about the risks, like bioweapons, economic destruction, authoritarian governments using A.I. to create surveillance states. And they also say that if Anthropic's models cause extreme harm, the company could face liability that exceeds what its insurance can cover, which, of course, would be a really significant risk to the company's business.

So, it is going to be really interesting to see how investors weigh, obviously the huge growth and the potential for this company, but also those very serious risks that it warns about.

BOLDUAN: Yes, putting in -- go ahead.

BERMAN: I was just going to say, I mean, how can insurance cover the end of humanity? Who do you pay, right?

BOLDUAN: I was going to say, which other company put in their risk -- in their risk pages, existential threat to humanity?

DUFFY: Right.

BOLDUAN: That's a -- that's a keeper. Well, let us see all together.

Good to see you. Thank you, Clare.

DUFFY: Thank you.

BERMAN: That's all for us this morning. "THE SITUATION ROOM," up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)