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Don Lemon Tonight

Election Countdown; Key Races to Watch; FOX Personalities Take Stage with Trump at Rally; CNN Poll: Trump Approval 39 Percent, Women Favor Dems over GOP; Trump's Approval at 39 percent; Women Favors Dems over GOP; Aides Say Trump Plans to Watch Election Returns. Aired 1-2a ET

Aired November 06, 2018 - 01:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[01:00:00]

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: What insecurity is he trying to hide, that he can't allow himself to be a human being?

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN HOST: Well, I'll tell you what, though, he's in the right place and the right business for not wanting to reveal any insecurities because in politics, you don't get a lot of rewards for revealing flaws. You usually get beaten over the head with them as a gotcha. He is well aware of that. He has a great gut for how things will be covered and what they are.

But 2016 to me was a battle of people and personality. It was Clinton versus Trump. Who people wanted more or less -- less in the election.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: On favorability --

CUOMO: -- and now it's about ideas.

It's about how do you want this to be?

The president is all in on the fear and loathing. If he loses the House -- if he wins then it's really galvanizing that the way he discusses things works and his party will have to capitulate completely. Right now they're clearly at odds.

But if he loses, it will be a real window of opportunity within his own party and within the Democrats to charter a different course in terms of how they deal with each other. They will have a window of opportunity.

LEMON: This is -- I jumped the gun earlier.

(CROSSTALK)

But Ryan goes through all those different scenarios and we'll have him come -- CUOMO: if the Democrats --

LEMON: -- if the Democrats, lose, what does that mean?

Is this a complete -- the president just has a complete hold on power, on all branches of the government and is it saying that, yes, the way you have been governing is fine?

Truth doesn't matter. Reality doesn't matter. Tone doesn't matter.

CUOMO: Or is it that it all does matter and people are validating how he's been using the different dynamics?

However, there is a burden with that. If he keeps control of both, it's going to put pressure on him in 2020 to show what he has gotten done with it because that will be an unprecedented time of uniformity within the party ranks, within Congress and the White House; whereas, if the Democrats win, it actually gives him a bogeyman to play against for whatever does or doesn't happen.

LEMON: I couldn't get this done because of the Democrats, who were obstructionist. But then Republicans and the president will own everything if do they take over.

But you and I were talking on the break. We really don't know.

CUOMO: I really don't know.

(CROSSTALK)

CUOMO: -- Democrats have an advantage.

LEMON: You don't really -- you can't really say that at this point.

CUOMO: I think -- Whether you look at the weather or whatever, it should be a fine day for people to come out and exercise the franchise. This is officially Election Day. So this is it. This is the big day. We're on the clock. But you just don't know.

This country is so divided. It's so hard to pick up who's a likely voter in polls these days because they get triggered by something almost spontaneously. And that's what happens when you're playing on passions as opposed to how I feel about the infrastructure bill.

LEMON: Well, I still think it will be like 2016 where people -- some Trump voters didn't want to tell pollsters that. They just didn't want to. And I think there are a lot of people who are underrepresented or undercounted in the registration of new voters, particularly young voters. So again.

CUOMO: It could. And we're all hyped about the early voting. And that's good. It's good that the early voting numbers are robust. But remember, early voters are really passionate voters. They're people who will vote anyway. They're just voting early because they can.

It doesn't necessarily suggest more new voters because they're probably not new.

LEMON: Some of us vote early because we actually won't be in our own city.

(LAUGHTER)

LEMON: My ballot came. I never just looked at a ballot so much -- like I never just look at it and studied it so much. It was interesting. When you go into the booth, you're moving along because there are people are behind you.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: Well, that's my job. I'm a reporter.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: You wouldn't know anything about that.

(LAUGHTER)

CUOMO: How do I leave?

LEMON: It's that way. To the left, to the left.

Thank you, Chris. Get some sleep.

CUOMO: I will.

LEMON: It's going to be me and you tomorrow.

CUOMO: Yes, it is.

LEMON: Late night.

CUOMO: Time with you is time well spent.

LEMON: I know. You'll love it. You'll like it. You'll learn a lot.

This is CNN TONIGHT. I'm Don Lemon. This is Election Day. And we're now in the early hours of the day that we have all been waiting for. Let me take you back to 1:00 am. This is 1:00 am on election morning two years ago. Then, candidate Donald Trump was closing out five campaign rallies in five states.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRESIDENT TRUMP: I said there's no place I would rather be for my last rally. Right here in Michigan. Late at night. And full of energy and life. Boy, do we have energy and life. Wow.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Remember that?

Nearly every single poll showed Clinton beating Trump. On that very morning of Election Day 2016 --

[01:05:00]

LEMON: -- internal Clinton campaign numbers had her winning Michigan by 5 points. We all remember how that turned out.

Trump was in the Oval Office. Two years later, nearly every major poll projecting Democrats will take control of the House. We have no idea what will happen later today.

Here's what we know tonight. Or this morning, depending on which part of the country you're in. The numbers for early voting in some states are record breaking. Over 31 million people nationwide have voted early. That's more than the 22 million early votes cast in the entire 2014 election.

Also voting at record levels people under age 30. Not typically reliable voters, they are turning out in droves. Anything is possible. Anything is possible. Anything can happen. So stay tuned. Make sure you vote.

Phil Mattingly at the magic wall for us to break down all the key races.

Phil, what a morning. What a night it will be.

What will you be watching early on to get a sense of who will take the House?

PHIL MATTINGLY, CNN U.S. CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: You make a great point. Throw out the polls. It's time for the results to come in. This is why keying on some of the races will be important.

There's going to be races to pay attention to in Virginia and Florida, no question, and one in Kentucky to keep a close eye on.

But I'm really focused early on in the night about two states in particular, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. Here's why. This could become the cornerstone of a Democratic effort to overtake the House or it could serve as a big warning sign.

This is two states that, because of redistricting and new lines and Republican retirements, presents ample opportunities for Democrats for pickups. Take New Jersey alone. You essentially here have four Republican seats that are very much within the realm of possibility for Democrats, you have two that the Democrats have already essentially banked.

If two others go, you see the two yellows here, these are tossup races. If these races flip into the Democratic column, when you talk to Democrats and Republicans, they say that could be a sign of a very big night in the House.

Go back over to Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania, because of the judge required new maps, you have plus retirements, you have at least four seats the Democrats feel like they have already banked. What happens later in the night in a race like this, Pennsylvania's

1st District. This is considered a firewall for House Republicans. If that goes towards the Democrats, the Democrats are feeling pretty good about where they are.

If it doesn't and Democrats -- Republicans hold onto that seat and they hold one or two in New Jersey, that might be a sign there's definitely a nail biter ahead.

LEMON: All right, well, take us to the Senate now.

What are the early races to watch there?

MATTINGLY: There' two to keep a keen focus on. Keep in mind the Senate map compared to the House map, it's extraordinarily different. It's almost an entirely different map.

Part of that is because Democrats are defending so many seats and so many seats in Trump country. Let's key in on one of those right now. A pure tossup race between incumbent Joe Donnelly and Mike Braun (ph). How Joe Donnelly does in this race will be a good barometer for some of the other key Democrats who are up in difficult seats, people like Claire McCaskill in Missouri, like Heidi Heitkamp or Jon Tester in North Dakota and Montana.

What you want to watch for here is what comes in, in the urban vote. What does Joe Donnelly do in Indianapolis. What does he do in Gary and down in Bloomington. That's going to tell you what you need to know. And obviously everybody because it's Election Night, we'll be focused here on Florida. You have a crucial governor's race.

You also have a key senator's race. Bill Nelson is starting to open a little bit of a polling lead. But as you noted, nothing matters until the votes actually come in. We have seen a lot of early vote. Might mean a lot of different things about a different coalition. If that early vote comes in how Democrats think it is right now, they feel good. But nothing is set until the votes are actually called.

LEMON: I want to talk about one of the races in Florida. We talk a lot about the House and the Senate races. But there's another important storyline today. That's the governors' races.

What are you focused on there?

MATTINGLY: This is the United States map. If you're looking at governors' races, it's blank right now. Let's flip it back to 2016 and the presidential race. Two key governors' races that obviously everybody is focused on, Florida and Georgia, some of the hottest, most contested, most malicious races that you have seen.

I want to point to a couple other red states, two very flippable states for Democrats. Move to the Midwest, the Rust Belt. This is where President Trump shocked the nation in 2016 just about two years ago.

Take a look at some of the states that Democrats now believe are firmly in play. Pennsylvania: Democrats believe they already hold that seat. Ohio: a tossup race right now, where Democrats feel like they have an opportunity. Michigan: another state President Trump stunned everybody in. They feel like that's clearly going into their category.

Wisconsin: Scott Walker going for his third term. Democrats feeling good about that race as well.

And Iowa.

What do all these races mean?

You see they're red in 2016. The majority of them, except for Pennsylvania, are Republican governors now. If Democrats flip those states, it has deep meaning not just for tonight but also for 2020.

[]

President Trump's going to be keying on very much what happens in those states statewide but also keep in mind what happened during the Obama years. This is extremely important.

Wipeouts in state houses, wipeouts in governors' mansions across the country. In 2010, that meant Republicans had control over redistricting for the most part in a lot of places. This starts a change in 2020.

If Democrats are flipping all of these seats or at least a bunch of them, that's where Democratic governors will have veto power over those new maps and could mean a world of difference over the course of the next decade.

If Democrats can get it done; nothing matters until everybody comes in.

LEMON: Legislatures are important there because then you have control of that. Thank you very much, Phil. Get some sleep.

(LAUGHTER)

LEMON: We have long hours ahead here on CNN.

With me this hour, we are live. We are live. This is not a repeat. Doug Heye, Tara Setmayer, Ryan Lizza, Alice Stewart and Joe Trippi -- Alice is looking at me like, yes. We're live.

ALICE STEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: We're live --

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: Wait a minute.

How many cups of coffee have I had today?

I don't think I've ever had this much.

Welcome, everyone.

Doug, we'll start with you because we've got 45 House seats, 35 Senate seats, 36 governors' races -- 435. What I'd say?

Sorry, I was talking about the House seats. Many of those races are up in the air. As we say, things really could go either way. Some people say, oh, it's breaking for Democrats. But you don't know.

DOUG HEYE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: You don't really know. This is the gut check moment, where both committees, the RNC and the DNC and certainly the congressional versions of that are at a really tense point right now.

It is not a happy time for them. Even if they think they'll do well, it is nervewracking. Why I think it's going to be a good night for Democrats, by and large tomorrow, when I worked at the Republican National Committee in 2010, when Republicans took over the House, our magic number for Barack Obama was 46 percent.

Certainly this year and that year aren't apples to apples but President Trump's numbers are way below that. That's why we're seeing so many races where Republican incumbents right now are at 44 percent or 46 percent when they're running for reelection in their House districts. That's a bad place for them to be.

And the president has been a real albatross for them. That will play a role.

LEMON: Let's talk about this. You're scaring a lot of Democrats.

(LAUGHTER)

LEMON: Every Democrat is like, I'm so nervous. I haven't slept. I'm going for a drink. And they don't know what to do.

RYAN LIZZA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: My Twitter feed is just people yelling at me about that.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: You wrote a great piece in "Esquire," and it says, "What If They Blow It? Democrats Contemplate a Red Wave Abyss."

You talk about a dozen or so Democrats, including Dan Pfeiffer, former top official with the Obama White House.

And he predicts, "Mueller is fired, Sessions is gone, ObamaCare is repealed, democracy is threatened and the Republicans will spend a generation believing that dishonest racist fear-stoking is a way to win elections."

A nightmare scenario for Democrats. But is that --

LIZZA: Yes. These conversations were like therapy, asking Democrats to contemplate the worse case scenario tomorrow. They wake up on Wednesday morning -- and Joe is looking at me, like getting PTSD here --

(CROSSTALK)

JOE TRIPPI, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: -- "SNL" skit that they showed this weekend is now -- been put there by Ryan Lizza --

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: -- and wine and flower --

LIZZA: -- everyone, like you did earlier in the show, setting this up, is everyone went into 2016 so confident about what they thought was going to happen on Tuesday. And it's really -- I think it's important for us as pundits and journalists to give viewers and readers the possibility that we're wrong.

And that -- being wrong this time, I think, has major consequences for the country.

What happens if there's no backlash against Trumpism the way that everyone has predicted, the way there usually is after two years?

STEWART: I think, in reading that, I felt for a lot of Democrats who -- there was a sense of waking up in the fetal position for several weeks after the election just because it was such a shock to the system.

And a couple of the points in your piece -- it was an excellent piece -- but it was described as if Democrats were to lose and Republicans did very well, it would be like an apocalypse, apocalyptic --

(CROSSTALK)

LIZZA: -- catastrophic and apocalyptic were the two words I heard the most.

STEWART: I think it would be that case for the Democratic Party, not necessarily -- I think the country will move forward and people will continue to embrace this president. And it was also an existential crisis, I think, for the Democratic Party, who is struggling to, in my view, find its identity.

And I think that's the key. If Democrats were to not do well, they would really have to take look at themselves.

What's their message, what's their identity?

And moving into 2020, recognizing that presidential campaigns --

[01:15:00]

STEWART: -- are won by electoral college and not by popular vote. And they need to campaign as such. LEMON: Joe, I want to talk about this because Ryan writes in the article, some found the premise too painful to discuss. "Can't happen," said Simon Rosenberg (ph), head of NDN, a Democratic think tank, declined to even contemplate the possibility.

He said, I can't even think about it.

How are you feeling about today?

It's not tomorrow, about today.

Are you worried about this nightmare scenario or are you pretty confident?

TRIPPI: Not much. I do want to mention --

LEMON: You're not worried?

TRIPPI: No.

LEMON: OK. All right.

TRIPPI: Coming off the experience of the Alabama special election, I don't think the country -- the country wants to come together. They want to find common ground. I don't see them -- if Democrats do lose, yes, it will be horrible for the Democratic Party. It will be horrible for the country.

LEMON: Where do you see people wanting to come together?

I don't see much of that. I just don't.

(CROSSTALK)

TRIPPI: Yes, they absolutely do. The problem is, the president keeps pushing the dividing -- the bigotry, the whole thing, division. When he does that, it does excite his base. But it drives particularly women away from the Republican Party.

That's why you had this huge gender gap. That's why, in the last days I think we're seeing a move away from the Republicans right now. They are really not doing well.

And as Doug points out, when you have the president at 44 or down at 39 now in the CNN poll, for approval, one of the things I'm seeing is the Republican incumbents have a hard time getting their vote above his approval rating. In other words, they're all hovering in the mid- 40s. And that's a horrible place to be.

In the end, that will move against --

LEMON: We've got a lot to talk about but I have to get to the break. The latest CNN poll, you were speaking about women, shows that women are saying they'll vote for Democrats in much higher numbers than men.

So will the gender gap make the difference in this election? We'll talk about that.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[01:20:00]

(MUSIC PLAYING)

LEMON: And we're back with Doug, Tara, Ryan, Alice and Joe.

Guess who was on the campaign trail with Trump a few hours ago?

Sean Hannity and Jeannine Pirro of FOX News.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEAN HANNITY, FOX HOST: The one thing that has made and defined your presidency more than anything else, promises made, promises kept.

JEANNINE PIRRO, FOX HOST: If you like the America that he is making now, you've got to make sure you get out there tomorrow. If you haven't voted yet. Everyone you know. Your grandmother your cousin. Your kids. Even your next door neighbor you don't like them. Get them out to vote for Donald Trump. All the people who are running for the Republican Party.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: I mean, Tara. Can you imagine if --

TARA SETMAYER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, if this happened under a different administration and it was a different network, what would Republicans be doing?

We would be having a fit. It's about the bias in the media and how this is inappropriate and everyone is in bed with everybody else and how can we expect any kind of fair coverage.

But now we have an entire major news network that has become state propaganda for this administration. It's completely inappropriate. Sean Hannity was being advertised as showing up as the campaign special guest. He said no, I'm just doing an interview.

Give me a break. I watched part of it. He got called up on stage by the president. It was completely inappropriate. And they're living in another world over there. It was like a college homecoming. They -- talking about how owning the Libs and how the faces of the left wing media. We'll look like on Wednesday morning when Republicans maintain control of the House and the Senate.

LEMON: Sometimes I watch it in my office. And I'll see something -- I forget which one it is. The real collusion is between the media --

(CROSSTALK) SETMAYER: -- the FBI and the --

LEMON: Isn't that collusion?

(CROSSTALK)

HEYE: It's almost too open and transparent to be collusion because we can see it so clearly.

I remember --

LEMON: I just -- how do they consider themselves a news network when they are actively involved in the -- ?

(CROSSTALK)

HEYE: -- they will tell you that their evening people are opinion. Their afternoon people are more FOX News. Most people know but that's --

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: -- Sean Hannity and all the other people that are actually telling them the truth and have to abide by the rules of journalism and they absolutely do not. You're an opinion host. But the people watching that channel have no idea.

It should be above it, if they want to do it, other that says "These are opinions. We don't necessarily have to stick by that."

Go on. I'm sorry.

HEYE: That's the reality of how this has been a very slow creep over the past few years. I can tell you; Tara can, too, working -- and Alice as well, working on Republican campaigns, sometimes FOX was very seamless in how they would work with you. Sometimes not as seamless as you would like, which would surprise you.

I remember being in a meeting with Roger Ailes when he said you guys need to do something about immigration.

And my boss at the time said, do you know what this network would do to us?

Oh, don't worry about that. Things have changed.

And we thought it might be seamless and a good story here or there. This is a whole level of that, a whole new level.

LEMON: Are you surprised by that as a Republican and a Trump supporter?

Are you surprised by it?

STEWART: By what we saw tonight?

Not at all simply because --

LEMON: -- concern you?

STEWART: Well, here's the thing. It's important to make the distinction. Sean Hannity will be the first one to say he's more of an opinion host and a radio host. And Judge Pirro the same way.

On every presidential campaign I've been on, you always go for the highest name, the most popular person, the person that your crowd and voters connect with. You bring them in and put them on stage. You let them rally the people, especially the night before the election.

You want that. We would do that -- Glenn Beck came with us. Every state you go in, you have the top Republican conservative radio host. That's what you do. And that's exactly what --

[01:25:00]

(CROSSTALK)

STEWART: -- but the clear distinction is they will be the first ones to tell you, Sean and Judge Pirro, they are opinion people. But the average person thinks, Sean Hannity, FOX News.

(CROSSTALK)

HEYE: I've worked with stories with Carl Cameron (ph) when he was with FOX, Bret Baier and now Chris -- these are not people who are going to work hand in glove with you to make your boss --

(CROSSTALK)

TRIPPI: But this clouds it. This obliterates any of the good journalism that they're doing because of how the opinion folks are out there, just projecting this kind of stuff.

LEMON: How can they say the news media is fake media but he's working in lockstep with the news media?

SETMAYER: Because he says what he --

(CROSSTALK)

LIZZA: The line's been disappearing slowly and slowly between the prime time lineup at FOX and the administration. This is more just putting a exclamation mark on what we've already noticed. Hannity has already -- he's been widely reported as an adviser to President Trump.

Hannity is a very good friend of Bill Schein, people here know is the communications director at the White House. So there's just a sort of mind meld right now between this White House and FOX News and I think this is the sort of final -- it's all out in the open --

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: Nobody is pretending anymore. LIZZA: -- that's what's good about this.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: -- but it's called the FOX News channel. It's not called the FOX Opinion channel.

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: Why would they stop?

They're winning in the ratings. They're not paying a price for it. So obviously what they're doing is working from their perspective. It's horrible for journalism because it does not differentiate between opinion and fact, which is why we get into the problems we're in now with people not believing facts when they're played out them because Sean Hannity and Laura Ingraham and the rest of them are telling people a whole bunch of B.S. all night from 8:00 until 11:00.

And then when -- Shepard Smith has a show that's fact-based news based at 3 o'clock. And the Trump folks want him thrown off the network. Because he doesn't -- he's a liberal. He doesn't tell them what they want to hear. So it's a very interesting dynamic there.

STEWART: It's a two-way street as well. As you know, when FOX does do this favorable coverage for them, they gain access and they get interviews. They get these one-on-one exclusive interviews with the president.

And in turn, the president gets prime time, non-stop coverage of his events to his core voters and he gets his message out there. So it's mutually beneficial to both of them.

SETMAYER: The flip side to this was MSNBC during Obama, where we used to complain about that relationship being too cozy. But it was never --

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: -- this is just beyond. And it's --

SETMAYER: It's propaganda, I'll say it.

LIZZA: Most news organizations, you're not allowed to go up to that line of giving money to a candidate, of outright endorsing it. And that line is being erased.

LEMON: If people knew the hoops that we had to jump through even at this network, just to do a speaking engagement, it is just unbelievable because it's actually a legitimate news organization.

And then you have people who are just brazenly out on the campaign trail.

OK. Anyway. Stand by.

If Republicans win this election, could that could cement the GOP as a party of Trump?

But if they lose what happens to the party?

Doug Brinkley weighs in next.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DON LEMON, CNN HOST: Here we are, finally Election Day. CNN's latest poll is showing that the Democrats have a double digit lead over Republicans. So why are Democrats so nervous?

"Saturday Night Live" had some fun with that. OK, well, maybe not.

Let's bring in historian Douglas Brinkley. Maybe next time we'll get it in. Hello, Douglas -- good to see you. How are you doing?

DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: This is what happens -- this is what happens -- Don. It's the graveyard shift we're working on and things start going awry.

LEMON: No, we're the early shift. We're the late evening or early morning show. We get everybody teed up, get them revved up.

Douglas, hello -- good morning to you. And you're in Connecticut and so it's morning to you as well.

I want to just check out the first midterms for the recent presidents. This is for recent presidents. 1994 Bill Clinton Had an approval rating of 46 percent. GOP, 54 seats to regain the House. In 2010 President Obama had a 46 percent approval rating and the GOP picked up 63 seats regaining the House majority.

In CNN's latest poll Trump has just 39 percent approval rating. What do you read into that? What does that say for this president?

BRINKLEY: Well, I never thought I'd live to see the day when a president is sinking like Donald Trump is the last few weeks down to 39 percent. I mean you're dealing with 70 percent of the American people essentially disapproving of him.

He started hemorrhaging the last couple of weeks when he picked up, you know, going out on the border and the caravan, making immigration the mainstay instead of the economy. It's very hard to move people when you're just not very liked or you just have one base, one small group of people.

Donald Trump should be uniting the country and expanding his base. Ronald Reagan used to say never operate without 50 percent of the American people -- Don. And 39 percent is nowhere near that.

And there's a myth also that somehow these midterms, you know, sitting presidents are cursed. I mean FDR won in 1932 and killed it in 1934. Jack Kennedy won in 1960 and did well in '62. George W. Bush won in 2000, did well in 2002. What we're seeing here is that the Trump machine has run out of gas because it didn't expand its voter base.

George W. Bush called his loss -- he called it a thumping. Obama -- I remember this, Obama said he took a shellacking, right. So how will the President spin it if he loses the House?

[01:35:04] BRINKLEY: I don't think he'll use words like Obama did like shellacking. I think he's going to, you know, start scapegoating people like he does. It'll be the media, and the new villain if the Democrats take Congress will be Nancy Pelosi.

The problem Donald Trump has is that Mueller investigation is ongoing. You know, we may get two reports -- one by the end of this year, one in early 2019. And so how does he escape that kind of scrutiny? And Democrats demanding his tax returns.

He is going to be in a defensive crouch if he loses Congress. He has had a great offense with the Senate, with Congress, able to get two Supreme Court justices in. Has been a substantive president in that regard.

But boy, , you lose Congress in this kind of environment that we're in right now and the investigations are just going to be nonstop because he's become a bit of a pariah president to a Democrat. You don't really want to be in a photo-op with him if you're a Democratic politics and that's pretty hard to cut a deal even if you're marketing yourself as a deal maker like Trump does.

LEMON: I'm sure you've been listening to him out the campaign trail, even at the rallies where he says, you know, a vote for whoever the candidate is a vote for me. so he's really stuck himself right in the middle of this telling voters that, you know, he's on the ballot.

He goes I'm not really -- I'm not on the ballot but I'm really on the ballot. So if he loses the House, right, if Democrats win the House, can he avoid taking responsibility? I'm sure he will try but do you think he really can?

BRINKLEY: He'll try. He set up Paul Ryan as a straw man a few weeks ago. It'll be that loser Ryan and the loser Jeff Flake and Bob Corker, not real Trumpians that are, you know, leaving the scene.

The problem Donald Trump has marketed himself as a revolution. That this is the Trump revolution redefining American politics. He promised the American people you're going to get so tired of winning with me. Well, here's the first big political test and you lose Congress, that's not winning.

He may be watching too much Fox News, listening to too much right wing radio, Breitbart and the like; meaning he's believing the BS on the right, not recognizing that he's a presidency in peril. I mean he's operating at 39 percent with the Mueller investigation, with Congress about to get subpoena power. So there is a lot at stake for Donald Trump to have the Republicans hold Congress.

Instead he's taken, Don -- the default position of can I hold the Senate? Because if Congress moved to impeach Donald Trump the Senate very well might back Trump, and there his presidency can survive. That's what happened to Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal. Congress moved to impeach but Senate said no way.

LEMON: All right. Douglas Brinkley -- always appreciate it. We'll see you soon. We're here. This is what we've been talking about forever.

BRINKLEY: All right.

LEMON: All right. Thank you.

BRINKLEY: Good morning -- Don.

LEMON: Good morning.

Will women be the key to the midterms? Well, we're going to talk about that next.

[01:38:08] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: It is Election Day in America, and a new poll shows that Democrats could benefit from a major gender gap. 62 percent of female voters say that they favor Democratic candidates, just 35 percent favor Republicans.

Doug, Tara, Ryan, Alice and Joe all back with me. So the polls show Alice that the Democrats have a big edge with women. Obviously there's lot of conservative women, but this gender gap is -- you know, this is an issue.

ALICESTEWART, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR; It sure. And I think there's a couple of factors that play into those numbers. One being that we're seeing more women get involved since President Trump has taken office. We're seeing more women certainly voting, organizing campaigns, running for office. That's going to turn more women out.

And a lot of women are put off by the tone and tenor of this presidency. It's insulting to a lot of women so they're turning away from him.

But also what we're also seeing in some of these numbers is that some of class trumps gender. We're seeing -- some of these numbers show that college-educated women are more leaning towards Democrats and uncollege-educated women are more for Republicans. So that is a big cross-path (ph) in a lot of these polls.

But more than anything, I think the tenor and the tone of this presidency is off putting for women.

LEMON: I want to take a look and this is a moment in the campaign trail when the President introduced his daughter, Ivanka. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Now, I don't know, they'll say this is nepotism. But the truth is she's a very, very -- you're not allowed to use the word beautiful anymore when you talk about women, you're not allowed. No, no, it's politically incorrect. No, no. It's politically -- I will never call a woman beautiful again. And every man here -- every man here, raise your hand, you will never, ever say your wife, your girlfriend, anybody is beautiful, right?

So I'm not allowed to say it because -- because it's my daughter Ivanka, but she's really smart. And she's here. Should I bring her up?

IVANKA TRUMP, PRESIDENTIAL DAUGHTER: Wow. Ohio, Ohio -- That was some introduction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: I have a new term that say, Tara. You know, I know it's hyperbole but something like that is called hyperbowl because you know it -- I mean obviously it's not. And you can say you're very beautiful Tara Setmayer. Are you offended by that?

TARA SETMAYER, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: No.

LEMON: Ok.

SETMAYER: I am --

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: I was just posing the question to her.

SETMAYER: She does have another daughter that we never hear about. Look, Donald Trump is obsessed with his daughter and it's creepy the way he talks about her, the way he's done it in the past. He sexualizes his daughter all the time, and I'm sorry it's creepy.

[01:45:00] But besides that. This whole thing about being too politically correct to compliment women and all that. He is just feeding the beast of the culture war that his base believes that political correctness is what's ruined this country. It's going to be the death of our culture.

So he just picks these things like that, that are rather benign normally. Who said that you can't say, you know, a woman is beautiful anymore? That's not true.

Where we have a problem is when you're talking about grabbing women by their whatever or the other things that he's been accused of doing and saying over the years. So he does that so it inoculates him from any scrutiny from his base because he tries to make it seem like it's just political correctness but instead it's just him being crass and rude and a misogynist.

LEMON: I'm also glad that we now say "Merry Christmas" again.

SETMAYER: Yes. He, all of a sudden now given --

(CROSSTALK)

SETMAYER: "Merry Christmas".

I know and it's not Thanksgiving yet but according to the stores it was like Christmas already before Halloween. It's ridiculous.

LEMON: Ok, so we talked about Fox News and we talked about Ivanka. It wasn't just Ivanka. He also brought in press secretary Sarah Sanders and Kellyanne Conway on stage with him. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: That's why I work for this president because I care about my kid's future and I care about the future of our country.

KELLYANNE CONWAY, COUNSELOR TO THE PRESIDENT: This president's policy has helped the job creators, the job holders and the job seekers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEMON: Ok. Crossing so many lines.

SETMAYER: What happened to the Hatch Act? It's called the Hatch Act.

RYAN LIZZA, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: And there was a time when you didn't bring journalists up on stage or even opinion hosts. And there was a time when you didn't bring the White House staff up behind the podium to make explicit political appeals.

Now there are certain -- I didn't listen to the whole thing. I don't know exactly what they say, but there are rules separating White House staffers, administration staffers from making overt political --

SETMAYER: There are laws. There's a law. It's called the Hatch Act. But here's the thing, Doug and I were staffers, too. You can go on your personal time. So when I worked on Capitol Hill, I would take like the last weekend off sometimes and I would go on campaign on my personal time for other candidates in the country. So you can get away with that.

But this is -- I mean this is really blurring the line.

LEMON: Yes. Joe -- what do you think?

JOE TRIPPI, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: It's like -- it's like more than blurring lines. It's like blowing right through it. It's just amazing to me that this is going on, but they're going to do it.

And it's all because he knows -- he clearly knows that women are moving away from him. And so this is Donald Trump's way of trying to like, hey, you know, I didn't mean -- I'd really like at some point to unify people because like he's shown so much ability to do that and then like trot up every woman he can on his staff. Because why -- he can't get other people to go up there and do that?

I mean that's pretty amazing to me.

LIZZA: Yes.

STEWART: They were pretty clear to make sure that their comments -- what I saw of what Sarah and Kellyanne said -- they were promoting the President and touting the President and saying the President's great. And that's -- they were pretty clear about that.

But with regard to --

LIZZA: You don't think they triggered any -- they didn't -- you don't think they crossed the line?

STEWART: Who's going to blow the whistle?

LIZZA: Well, that's the question.

(CROSSTALK)

STEWART: No one will blow the whistle.

LIZZA: This is why tomorrow matters so much, right? There's nobody in the House of Representatives. There's no committee that's going subpoena the White House and say, you know, we want to see who paid for this and did anyone violate the Hatch Act, right. That's why these lines can be crossed because there's no check.

LEMON: I've got to get to the break, Doug -- but for people who are -- who just want a check on the White House, right, we're supposed to -- not any one branch of government is supposed to have too much power. The executive branch is not supposed to have too much. That's why the checks and balances. Shouldn't this be like --

DOUG HEYE, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Sure, but I refer you to what Paul Kane from the "Washington Post" wrote today that Congress -- both parties haven't been doing their fundamental job as being a check and balance, doing the job of having committee hearings and so forth not just for two years or four years or six years but going back for over a generation now.

This is a systemic problem. It's not a Republican problem or Democratic problem. It's a congressional problem.

LEMON: And the Trump administration is taking advantage of that.

All right. Stick around, everyone. Everyone stay with me.

The President has absolutely nothing on his schedule today -- nothing. So what's he's doing all day on Election Day? Lots of executive time.

[01:49:16] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LEMON: It looks like President Trump will do what millions of Americans will do later today, watch the election returns. He has nothing on his schedule all day.

Back with me now -- everybody.

LIZZA: He must be so excited when he got that schedule. It's just completely blank.

SETMAYER: How is this different than most days.

LEMON: I'm not mad at him. That would be great to get a schedule that was like -- nothing is on it.

Joe -- after the campaign blitz in the past two weeks, sometimes multiple rallies a day. He has been on the campaign trail. He has nothing to do on his schedule. Executive time all day. Is that a good day, a good thing for him?

TRIPPI: I think it's going to be interesting to see the Twitter feed because if he's getting exit polls from anybody, not saying there might be a network that might get him the exit polls, but --

LEMON: That would never happen.

TRIPPI: No, never. It would be interesting to see early on in his -- if he starts tweeting sort of --

LIZZA: Anyone --

TRIPPI: -- Republicans --

LIZZA: -- in American politics who would be unrestrained about tweeting early exit polls, it is Donald Trump.

TRIPPI: That's what I'm saying. He might be the earliest indicator we've got.

STEWART: Well here -- like we know that he's coming in late tonight. I think he gets back to the White House around midnight. So I'm sure he's still watching.

So if you're watching tonight, please don't do anything mean until -- oh, the polls close.

(CROSSTALK)

LEMON: Wow. Alice --

STEWART: He will be effective in reminding people to get out the vote tomorrow and encouraging people in the key states to get out and vote. That's an effective use of his executive time to encourage people to get out and vote and reminding people that a vote for the Democrat is a vote for more Pelosi and Schumer. That is an effective use of his Twitter tomorrow.

SETMAYER: You think he's --

But if it goes kind of sideways, you're going to see the ballot -- you know, hurry up and vote. Oh, my God, the canvas (ph) is coming. The caravan is coming. The caravan is coming. [01:54:58] He's going to start tweeting crazy things tomorrow if he sees that, you know, people are -- the exit polls aren't what he wants them to be.

LEMON: They're 800 miles away, by the way.

SETMAYER: I know. I mean I'm being --

LEMON: Or 600. Real quickly here. Ok pipe bombs went off, you know -- the President talked about this. Here's what he's tweeted though after all of that happened. It is very interesting.

"Republicans are doing so well in early voting at the polls and now the bomb stuff happens and the momentum greatly slows."

You know what happened. Does that have any effect on this? I have literally 30 seconds left.

HEYE: Ultimately, no. You know, we focused so much on the tactics of Trump's tweets and the outrageous language. They've made a strategic decision here. This is about motivating the base voters. It's not about persuading anybody.

So we'll focus on the tactics. A lot of them, I would agree, are awful. But this is a strategic decision, motivating their base.

SETMAYER: And we'll see how it goes.

LEMON: All right -- guys. Thanks for watching. I've got to throw it to Don Lemon who's on line next. Oh, wait -- that's me. It's been on 24 hours.

Thanks for watching, everyone. Our coverage continues.

[01:56:00] (COMMERCIAL BREAK)