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Wildfire Consumes 4,100 Acres in Ventura County; Rumsfeld's Memo; Dangerous Life on Both Sides of Border

Aired December 03, 2006 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAROL LIN, CNN ANCHOR: A live look right now at raging fires tonight as hundreds of residents run for cover in southern California.
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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We've lost all our personal belongings. My mom's and dad's wedding pictures.

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LIN: That is one of the big stories tonight.

Plus he is young, popular, a commander of a forceful militia and one of the America's biggest threats. Can the U.S. reckon with the force as powerful as Muqtada al-Sadr?

And later.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People look at the building sometimes and then they look real closely and go, that's plant material?

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LIN: Yell, buildings made out of the plants. An amazing look at how this foundation of foliage came to be.

It's 7:00 p.m. in Atlanta, 4:00 p.m. in Ventura County, California, where that fire is raging. You're in the NEWSROOM and I'm Carol Lin. Let's catch you up on the headlines.

Let's go back to that huge wildfire there. Live pictures of a factory on fire, that's just a fraction of the damage. The 4,000 acres of blaze right now in Ventura County, California. Several homes have been destroyed and scores of residents have evacuated the area. More on that story in just a moment.

In the meantime, two days before Donald Rumsfeld resigns, as the secretary of defense, he wrote a memo calling for changes in Iraq saying U.S. forces were not working well enough or fast enough.

And Saddam Hussein's lawyers have formally appealed his death sentence. He's been sentenced to hang for his role in the killings of nearly 150 Shiite villagers in 1982. And the son of Augusto Pinochet says his father is in the hands of God and the doctors. The former Chilean dictator had emergency angioplasty today after suffering a heart attack. He's 91.

Now in Venezuela, voters turned out in huge numbers at an election that will decide if President Hugo Chavez wins another six- year term. Chavez is expected to win handily over political veteran Manuel Rosales.

Our top story now, a dangerous wildfire in southern California. Flames fanned by the Santa Ana winds whipping up uncertainty and anxiety for home owners. Nearly a dozen houses were damaged or destroyed in Ventura County and a firefighter was injured. Earlier we spoke with Barry Parker with the Ventura County fire department.

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BARRY PARKER, CAPTAIN, VENTURA COUNTY FIRE DEPT: The vegetation in these areas is very dry, very susceptible to burn. So that's exactly what happened. Once we had the ignition source, these fires just took off and ran. So we have got fire engines strategically located throughout these neighborhoods, doing structure protection. We're doing all that we can. But you know, this is Mother Nature that we're dealing with and we're at the mercy of the wind right now.

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LIN: And the wind is picking up. Firefighters have been going at this blaze all day. Our Ted Rowlands live in Moorpark, California in Ventura County. Ted, it looks like the winds have died down, but the fire seems to be picking up behind you.

TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, we are in one of many areas that's burning in this area of southern California. This is a manufacturing plant. We're told that they manufactured dried flowers. It used to be a place called the Egg Factory, where it was an egg processing plan, but apparently over the last year or two it's changed hands.

This is indicative of what is happening around this region. And the winds are dying down maybe a bit. They're swirling, and they're going up and down, but in excess of 70 miles-per-hour at some point. And this is just one fire.

In fact, we were just driving up here within the last half hour, and we passed three to four huge small fires ravaging this area. And because of the winds, they are moving at a very high pace. Hundreds of residents in this region have been evacuated and remain evacuated this hour.

You talked about homes and businesses being burnt down. At this point it's about a dozen, but we're getting updates every couple hours. I can guarantee you that there's going to be more structures, at least a few more, because of just the sheer amount of fires burning in this region. This is tough to watch, I'm sure for the people that own this business, but we also have talked to some homeowners and heard some heartbreaking stories of people that have lost it all.

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DORANN LAPERCH, HOMEOWNER: My house caught on fire, and then subsequently my mother's house caught on fire.

ROWLANDS: What have you lost in the fire?

LAPERCH: We've lost all our personal belongings, my mom's and dad's wedding pictures. My dad's ashes were in mom's house. I lost all my silver saddles, my show equipment, computers, and every photo.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROWLANDS: And the fire continues to burn around this area. The hope is that with nightfall, cooler temperatures, and diminished winds will help firefighters out. A lot of people have evacuated, just hoping that their homes will be spared.

Again, the problem, Carol, is this is not just one fire that they can really attack. It has splintered off or what they call its fingered off into many different regions, and they're having to attack these by the air, each fire one by one.

Assess it, come out, they're letting this basically burn. Right now they are sending some sending choppers behind it to hope that it doesn't spread, but by no means do they have this under control. This is going to be a long night for firefighters.

LIN: Ted, there's something, it looks like it's igniting behind you. I'm seeing smoke coming from the shrubs behind you. What's going on?

ROWLANDS: Yes, well, this hillside along the side to the left of us has already burned out, before the fire obviously got to this building.

You can just see where it screamed -- still a little bit of flame up top there, and along this ridge and got to this manufacturing plant. And because you see the wind right now, it's just picking up the way its been all day long. That's been the way it's been all day long. The fire is moving so quickly that it difficult to get a handle on it.

Typically the firefighters can get a better feel for where a fire is going, and position their resources accordingly, stake it out and build a perimeter. When you have a situation like this where it is splintered off in so many small fires, it is very difficult and it is a continual asset management.

They have to basically just pick their battles and protect homes. That's what their mission is, protect homes, property, and most importantly lives. And thus far, there has been no loss of life that we've heard of. No injuries in fact have been reported, just structures. And the hope is that they can get some help from Mother Nature as nightfall hits here in California later, in the next few hours.

LIN: So good to hear no injuries, but a lot of heartaches still out there there, Ted. You're on the front lines, we're going to be checking back with you.

Let's go to meteorologist Jacqui Jeras. Jacqui, we've been talking about these Santa Ana wind conditions. There are the hot dry desert winds that reverse and blow toward the coast, but bringing that hot air inland.

JACQUI JERAS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Absolutely. And they go down those mountains, they go down those hills and that air speeds up, it goes faster and it gets hotter at the same time.

So imagine that coming at you at 70 miles-per-hour. I don't know if we're still in touch with Ted or not, to get a better idea of what it feels like to be out there. I mean Ted, are you getting hit in the face with dust and dirt? Is it painful? What is it like to be out in winds that strong?

ROWLANDS: Yes, definitely. You know, earlier we were actually commenting this is more like covering a hurricane than it is a wildfire because of all the debris in the air. Our photographer has goggles on, and I've had glasses on for most of the day, because when the wind does pick up, it brings all the debris.

And it's very different for firefighters, as you can imagine and for those chopper pilots that are negotiating the winds as well. But they're up there, and that really is the main line of defense for the firefighters.

JERAS: And are winds pretty steady or are you getting a lot of gust? Are they coming from all different directions?

ROWLANDS: A lot of gusts. In the last half hour or so, it's become more gusty. Earlier today it was steady and it was very, very strong, in excess of 70 miles-an hour. And sustained at times. I mean, we literally -- it was difficult to keep the equipment up and, you know, the camera up and all the rest of it. You could feel it on your body, much like covering a hurricane, it was that stiff in a lot of areas of where the fires are burning.

JERAS: All right, thanks very much, Ted. Stay safe out there.

And one thing to keep in mind, Carol, too, is why these fires are becoming so sporadic and popping up all over the place. Those winds are blowing some of the timbers and that's what can help to drive new fires and these fires to start.

LIN: That's right. Some of these fires, especially in wind conditions that you've been describing, they can move like a mile every minute. So this thing can move very quickly, and this is the worst time of day, Jacqui, as the sun begins to set and wind begins to pick up.

JERAS: Right. As the sun continues to goes down, we'll watch for those winds to die down. So they should be calmer through the overnight, but Carol, we expect the winds to pick up again unfortunately tomorrow.

It should be a little bit weaker as we approach Tuesday, and we think by Thursday we think we'll get that onshore flow, the wind that comes from the ocean and moves on shore and brings that humidity up. You know, relative humidity at lowest points today, and tomorrow both, both expected to be in the single digits for percentage. That's so low.

LIN: That's cinder-dry. You bet. All right, thanks very much Jacqui. I know Jacqui you're going to be watching for some of the I- reporter pictures that are going to be coming into the CNN Center.

We want to ask you, if you are in the fire zone at a safe distance, but you want to share what that experience has been like, we're looking for your pictures from the southern California wildfires. And you can send them to us by going to CNN.com/ireport. We're going to share them tonight in the 10:00 p.m. Eastern program.

To the situation in Iraq, and we want to explore that days before resigning, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld sends a memo to the White House that calls for a major adjustment in Iraq. Kathleen Koch has been working this story for the last 24 hours and she filed a report a short time ago from the White House.

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KATHLEEN KOCH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The White House was busy downplaying the Rumsfeld memo today. National Security Adviser Stephen Hadley insisting that President Bush has said publicly what Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said in the memo, that things in Iraq are not proceeding well enough or fast enough and the United States does need to make some changes.

And Hadley denied that the memo was a master plan for Iraq.

STEPHEN HADLEY, NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISER: One I think that Rumsfeld memo represents is kind of a laundry list of ideas that have been considered. Some he put, as he said, above the line. Some of them he put below the line, but it was the effort I think to broaden the aperture of the debate. It was a useful memo and we used it in that way to trigger discussions. But this was not a game plan or an effort to try to set out the way forward in Iraq.

KOCH: Hadley says that President Bush will be considering the contents of the Rumsfeld memo as he works over the next few weeks to come up with that new strategy in Iraq.

The president will also, of course, be looking at the final report from the Iraq Study Group. That's due out Wednesday, also the results of an internal government review. And Hadley insisted the president would certainly be consulting with members of Congress in both parties up on Capitol Hill, as well as Iraqi leaders. And to that end, one of them, Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, a senior Shiite leader, will be meeting with President Bush at the White House tomorrow afternoon. And it's a very safe bet that certainly one of the topics that will come up will be the leaked Rumsfeld memo. Kathleen Koch, CNN, the White House.

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LIN: Well you can imagine the surprise when the architect of the war plan is suddenly a critic. Senators from both sides of the aisle talked about the memo on the Sunday morning talk shows.

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SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: And the Rumsfeld memo makes it quite clear that one of the greatest concerns is the political fallout from changing course in the United States. Politically and how to deal with that, but the bottom line is there is no one, including the former secretary, who thought the policy the president continues to pursue makes any sense.

SEN. JOHN WARNER (D), VIRGINIA: It would have been helpful if some of those ideas were brought on earlier in the fall, but history will have to record why he did what he did when he did it.

SEN. JOE LIEBERMAN (I/D), CONNECTICUT: It's such a laundry list of suggestions by Secretary Rumsfeld, some of which he never spoke in favor of in public, so it makes the memo puzzling. I will say that, again, the surprising omission in the Rumsfeld memo is a recommendation for more troops in Iraq.

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LIN: In the meantime, a bipartisan report on what to do about the Iraq war comes out on Wednesday, just as the president meets with a powerful Shiite leader. Nic Robertson tells us more about this man who at least acts like a friend to the U.S.

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NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, the powerful leader of Iraq's largest Shia party, the supreme council for Islamic revolution in Iran, is friendly to the United States.

How much of that warmth is political maneuvering is hard to fathom. Hakim, a quietly spoken Shia cleric spent decades in exile in Iran, only returning after Saddam was overthrown. He wants Iran to help out in Iraq.

ABDUL AZIZ AL-HAKIM, SCIRI LEADER (through translator): They can help Iraq and the Iraqis a lot. They can participate in solving security and economic problems.

ROBERTSON: Hakim still has strong ties with Tehran. His party has an Iranian-trained militia, the 25,000 strong banner brigade.

Many have joined Iraq's national police service. Others pledge to disarm, but the militia, whose commanders got top jobs in the police force, have yet to shake well-founded accusations they're running death squads, killing Sunnis.

Hakim came to leadership by default. His elder brother Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim was blown up by Sunni insurgents. Since then, Hakim has publicly at least preached against retaliation, and steered the Shia towards unity, maximizing their political clout.

But divisions are opening up. Hakim opposed fellow Shia Nuri al- Maliki for prime minister, preferring a candidate from his own party. Now the prime minister is on the political ropes, under intense American pressure to disarm his most powerful backer, firebrand Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's militia. Hakim could benefit if the prime minister fails.

(on camera): Hakim also has a deep history of rivalry with Sadr. Their respective fathers competed for followers among the Shia faithful. If Hakim could marginalize Sadr and Maliki, he could realize twin goals. But that's unlikely to be his message to President Bush. Far more likely, he'll be trying to building support for Iraq's whole Shia community. Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.

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LIN: Now in our next half hour, Nic Robertson's profile of another Shiite powerful leader in Iraq, radical cleric Muqtada al- Sadr. He leads an army of thousands and millions of Iraqis look up to him. So can the U.S. neutralize his power?

Also American citizens snatched across the border by criminals.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We are urgently asking them to call us.

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LIN: Family members of several Texas men kidnapped last week try to contact the kidnapper, not an isolated incident. Investigators say these types of kidnappings are becoming a trend.

And he controlled a militia that fought U.S. troops to a standstill and millions of Iraqis turned to him for guidance. This is the man that I was talking about: the troubling case of Muqtada al- Sadr.

And Christiane Amanpour puts the focus on a growing problem in AIDS-ravaged Africa. When parents die early, what happens to the children?

Also, a fire burning out of the control right now in Ventura County, California, just north of Los Angeles. We are carrying coverage live, we are watching the situation on the ground as hurricane-force winds continue to blow this fire out of control. You're watching CNN, the most trusted name in news.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) LIN: All right. Right now live pictures of a factory on fire in Ventura County, California. This is the area of Moorpark. This is just one sample of the damage that's going on because of a wildfire out of control.

It started at 2:30 in the morning. Firefighters still don't know what the cause is, but that frankly right now they don't care. They're just trying to get this 4,000-acre wildfire under control. Winds blowing up to 70 miles-per-hour and beyond. It is a hot, dangerous situation on the ground, and we are having continuous live coverage. We'll be bringing you the pictures as we get them.

Right now, we also have some other news across America. Someone in an SUV shot and killed a 14-year-old boy who threw eggs at the car. Police are still searching for the shooter.

And just a few hours ago, Florida police held a news conference, but didn't seem to have any clues in the kidnapping of a newborn boy. They simply repeated the woman who allegedly took the baby is driving a dark two-door SUV with peeling, tinted windows and that the FBI is now involved.

And along the Texas border, federal agents are trying to locate two Laredo businessmen kidnapped last week by a gang of armed men. A third man was also kidnapped, but has since been released. The suspects in the crime, warring drug cartels. CNN's Ed Lavandera shows us just how dangerous living has become for those living on both sides of the border.

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ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): When Nuevo Laredo bleeds and it often does, newspaper headlines tell the gory details. For several years, rival drug cartels have waged a deadly war to control this border town. Violence has brought tourism to a stand still.

SHERIFF RICK FLORES, WEBB COUNTY, TEXAS: I have never seen any of that. I thought it was only in the movies.

LAVANDERA: Last year the murder rate almost tripled in Nuevo Laredo and there have already been some 60 murders this year. This man was appointed chief of police last year. Eight hours later, he was dead.

In February, drug cartel members launched grenades and gunfire into the offices of "La Manana" Newspaper. Raymundo Ramos has spent the last five years, covering "La Nota Roja." For the paper, that's what reporters here call the bloody crime beat.

It looks like this is a city out of control.

RAYMUNDO RAMOS, JOURNALIST: (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE).

LAVANDERA: He says we're living like prisoners in our own city because not even the police can make us feel secure. Everyone here is living with insecurity about what could happen.

LAVANDERA: After the attack, Ramos left the paper. Now he is working with a human rights group and selling Tequila gift packages on the side to make ends meet. There have been isolated incidents of drug cartel violence spilling into Laredo. There have been several dozen kidnappings of American citizens but something else worries the mayor of Laredo.

MAYOR BETTY FLORES, LAREDO, TEXAS: A lot of the people that are involved in the business if you will already live here and perhaps have lived here and in other parts of the country for many years. Why? Because they feel safer. So in that respect, I think we have had some spillover.

LAVANDERA: Getting the violence under control here is the top mission. More than 10,000 trucks cross the border every day. This is one of the most crucial commercial entry points into the U.S. The fear is that drug violence will slow the trucks down.

Ed Lavandera, CNN, Laredo, Texas.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: In the meantime, a fuzzy Iraq policy, a growing insurgency, and then there is this man. His anti-American rhetoric sways million of Iraqis, so what is being done about Muqtada al-Sadr? Also, we are tracking a developing story out in Ventura County, California, a wildfire out of control, temperatures rising, the wind continues to blow. Our Ted Rowlands on the front lines. We're going to be checking in with him throughout this hour as well.

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LIN: Live pictures now of this wildfire in Moorpark, California. It's Ventura County, about an hour's drive from Los Angeles. And the situation is still out of control. More than 4,000 acres have burned, no serious injuries to report. But Jacqui Jeras at the CNN Weather Center is saying that some of these wind speeds right now, hurricane- force winds, as firefighters try to get a handle on this, and residents who have lost everything are mourning all that this fire consumed.

We talked earlier with Dorann LaPerch, who told us about her loss.

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LAPERCH: This morning at about 6:30, I saw a lot of smoke north of us, which would be the happy camp park area. There were a lot of moments where the fire looked like it was going the complete other direction, and all of a sudden before I had all the dogs out, I saw the fire coming, called the fire department, because nobody was here.

I grabbed the last of my dogs, and ran, as my motor home which is near my house caught on fire. After that, my house caught on fire, and then subsequently my mother's house caught on fire. My mom and I are essentially homeless. We're going to have to figure out, I have parrots, I have to get cages and get them situated, and get our animals situated here.

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LIN: This is truly a human story there as this wildfire continues to burn out of control. You're looking at what used to be a dried flower factory, once an egg factory, now virtually gone.

A firefighter out at the scene has told the "Associated Press" -- actually CNN, that this is Mother Nature we're dealing with right now and we're at the mercy of the wind. Staying on top that story throughout this hour and throughout the night.

In the meantime, on a weekend set aside to remember the victims and survivors of AIDS, we are going to look at some of the youngest people affected in Africa. More than a million children are struggling to survive. CNN's chief international correspondent Christiane Amanpour hosts a special "CNN PRESENTS: Where Have All the Parents Gone?" Here is a preview.

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CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INT'L CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As AIDS continues its relentless march across Africa this, will soon become a continent of AIDS orphans. There are 12 million today, but in four short years, there will be 18 million.

STEPHEN LEWIS, U.N. AFRICA, AIDS ENVOY: There are some countries where by 2010, 10 or 15 percent of the entire population, not the child population, but the entire population will be orphans.

AMANPOUR: Stephen Lewis is the U.N. Special AIDS envoy.

LEWIS: They're like kids everywhere. They're so bewildered by what's happened to them, that they stand in the hut, and they watch their parents die and then their lives fall apart, and it is inexplicable.

AMANPOUR: Anthony and Gabriel's parents both died of AIDS and left them alone in this wilderness.

(On camera): What do you remember about your mother and father?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): They were people who loved me.

AMANPOUR: Without that love and care, they have to fend entirely for themselves. Walking to school every morning, and doing all of their chores when they come home every evening. Trekking an hour to collect water and firewood, which they need to cook their one meal of the day.

(On camera): Do you remember the last time you had some meat or vegetables or fruit? UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): Yes, I remember. It was when my parents were still alive. Back then we lived well and we had food to eat. Now we go to sleep hungry. We don't even have clothes to wear, and we don't go out anymore.

AMANPOUR (voice over): So much loss and deprivation makes them determined to work for their future. Every night they read by the dying light of the fire. Ironically, this lesson is about African diseases.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: An example of this for which a vaccine is not yet able is malaria.

AMANPOUR: Anthony wants to be a doctor, Gabriel a teacher.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): If I do well in my exams, I will become a teacher, so I can help myself.

AMANPOUR (on camera): Do you think your parents would be proud of you to see how you're coping in such a difficult circumstance?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): I think they would be very happy.

AMANPOUR: And Anthony and Gabriel have a message for all the other AIDS orphans.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): First I want to say to those who have lost their parents is that they should be strong and never give up.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: "CNN Presents: Where have all the Parents Gone?", tonight at 8 Eastern, and again at 11 Eastern.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He looks like not only is he on the ascendancy, but could well by the strong man in wait.

LIN: He worries U.S. lawmakers and causes major headaches for the troops on the ground, but just who is Muqtada al Sadr? And what does he have in mind for Iraq? You're in the CNN NEWSROOM.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: A 4,100-acre wildfire in Moorpark, California, has damaged nearly a dozen homes and scores of others have been evacuated. The flames are being fanned by Santa Ana winds gusting up to 70 miles an hour. Let's go live, actually, on the telephone now, to Ted Rowlands in Moorpark, California, for the latest. He joins us by telephone.

Ted, we're looking at your previous live shot location of this factory that's on fire, but I know you had to hit the road. You wanted to look for some fresh stories out there. What do are you seeing? ROWLANDS: Yes, Carol, we've actually -- I'm just on the other side of that fire, of the picture you see right now. There was a house behind the fire that you see, that they're trying to save, and we wanted to investigate that. Apparently they're giving up that fight and they are just resigned to the fact that they'll probably lose that house along with the other houses that have been lost.

The winds continue, just to blow. We've had gusts up to 70 miles per hour. It's just amazing, when you look across the valley here, you see a number of different fires burning. There are all sorts of homes in the area. Choppers are everywhere and they're doing their best to try and save as many houses as they can, but it's an uphill battle, because of amount of fire -- and because these winds.

(INAUDIBLE, WIND INTERFERENCE)

LIN: Ted, you've been in fire zones, and sometimes even if there's a mandatory evacuation, people still refuse to leave their properties. Trying to save what they can or protect their animals. What are you seeing of residents out there? Are they obeying the mandatory evacuation or do you see people trying to save their own homes right now?

ROWLANDS: Well, we just talked to a guy that actually has his hose out, in a home right next to the fire that you can see right now in your picture. And he is staying here, and the fire crews are with him, and he's being allowed to stay here, watching it, hoping there isn't a significant change in the direction of the wind.

For the most part, people have been getting as much as they can gather, because in this -- it's semi-rural. There's developments, but there's a lot of livestock, people trying to get their pets and animals out, if possible, to safety. The firefighters, they've been through these things before and have seen people that have not evacuated when they were supposed to, and they know it's devastating. Most residents get out when they know their lives are in danger.

LIN: All right, Ted Rowlands, on the road there covering an out-of-control wildfire, in Ventura County, just north of L.A. County. Ted will be looking for fresh stories out there and talking to people on the scene. He's on the front lines of this wildfire, 4,100 acres. And people's lives being consumed, people's memories being consumed by those flames.

We won't leave the fire story for long, but we want to bring you a fascinating look at a man who is -- well, perhaps the most powerful man in Iraq right now. Definitely one of the most vocal critics of U.S. military involvement. But beyond the boyish face and turban, what do we know about Iraqi powerbroker Muqtada al Sadr? Well, CNN's Senior International Correspondent Nic Robertson finds out for us.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ROBERTSON (voice over): When this man, firebrand Shia Cleric Muqtada al Sadr speaks, everyone listens. He has the biggest, most volatile private army in Iraq, the Mehdi militia. In fact, if you go on the streets of Baghdad's sprawling slum, Sadr City, home to more than 2 million impoverished Shia, Sadr's gunmen control the tight grid of garbage-strewn streets. When U.S. troops arrive, they melt away warned lookouts, often kids.

The U.S. military estimates Sadr's army at 7,000, but intelligence experts in the region say it's probably double that, 14,000. The Mehdi militia is the sharp tip of Sadr's power. His supports comes from the slums, millions of Shias poorly educated, mainly young, look to him to lead them. When he calls, they all come out.

He has more of the populous following than Iraq's other Shia leader, the reclusive Ayatollah Ali Sistani, though Nuri al-Maliki is prime minister, you can say Sadr is king-maker; 30 of Iraq's parliamentarians and six of its government ministers are loyal to Sadr. Without him, al-Maliki would have little, if any, power.

Sadr is also part feudal lord. He is accused of assassinating his religious rivals and stirring his militia to rampage. His violence did not begin until July 2003 when the U.S.'s chief in Iraq, Paul Bremmer appointed Iraq's first governing council. Sadr didn't make the cut, and since then has demanded America must get out.

When U.S. troops were preoccupied with fighting in Falluja two years ago, Sadr saw an opportunity and unleashed his militiamen in the south. They took control of several cities, eventually they backed off. But soon after, Sadr was back at it. A year into the war, his militia took over a holy shrine. U.S. special forces were deployed to kill him. The operation was called off when Sadr backed down. That's been his tactic, ratchet up attention, and then let it cool off.

Now he's going after his biggest target yet. A power play, with his deputies threatening to bring down the prime minister's government, what holds U.S. forces back from taking Sadr down now is concern that wouldn't stop the bloodshed and chaos, because some of Sadr's commanders are running renegade operations.

Sadr's father, a powerful Ayatollah, was murdered by Saddam Hussein. Recently, the son's supporters reenacted the assassination of the father. The goal was to raise Sadr's standing even higher, compare him to his beloved and martyred father.

(On camera): Sadr has always been a spoiler in Iraq's politics. His end game appears to be to have him as Iraq's top Shia cleric, with the country run on an Iranian style theocracy. The risks he takes to achieve it define his leadership, often appearing reckless, always with a veiled threat of violence not far away. Nic Robertson, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

LIN: So how does al Sadr and his obvious influence impact U.S. military's plan in Iraq? Nora Bensahel is a senior political scientist with the Rand Corporation, and she joins me live tonight from our Washington bureau. Nora, Good to have you.

NORA BENSAHEL, SR. POLITICAL SCIENTIST, RAND CORP.: Thanks.

LIN: Let me pose the obvious question, that perhaps many Americans might be wondering after watching this profile. What would happen if this man were assassinated?

BENSAHEL: Well, it's not clear who would succeed him, but the problem is by now he's built a very strong following in the particular segments of the Shia community in which he's been active. So it's not clear if he were taken out, himself, how much power would remain as part of his organization and how much they would still be able to achieve.

LIN: And there would be other ramifications, right? For to have a Shiite leader assassinated, and, it would not end the problem. And, in fact, it may even raise his profile in the afterlife, true?

BENSAHEL: That's right. That's why I don't think anybody is seriously considering this as part of a strategy. What the U.S. and the Iraqi forces are contemplating is ways to make him less powerful, and in particular, trying to figure out ways to disband his militia, in addition to all the other militias in Iraq. It's important to note that Sadr's is not the only militia that exists, although, it is the most powerful on.

LIN: So, how do you neutralize him, then?

BENSAHEL: Part of the goal in the long term is to bring the militia leaders into some political process. That hasn't worked very successfully and it's not clear how to pursue that in the future. It leaves the U.S. and Iraqi governments in a very difficult position. Because short of that, al Sadr is able to keep great amounts of power through his influence in the Shia community.

LIN: Well, and some might say in this region of the world, all politics is tribal. He has loyalists already serving in the parliament, so in effect, al Sadr is participating in the political process.

BENSAHEL: In a way he is, his sources of power are even more pronounced in the Shia communities. One of the things which he has done is created a network of people and of services that help those who are loyal to him, and in those areas that he controls.

So, for example, when we saw a very bloody attack on our Thanksgiving Day in the United States, it was al Sadr's people who responded to that, who provided first aid, who ensured the corpses were treated in accordance with Islamic tradition. And that gives him a great deal of political support, not just for his military activities, but for what he's doing for the people in the area.

LIN: It seems like he sits on the fence. Just as Nic was saying, that he triggers a series of violent attacks, and then he pulls back, and he watches and he waits. The Iraq study group report is coming out this week, on Wednesday. If it comes to be true that part of that report, let's say the Bush administration then has some form of a drawback plan, where U.S. forces assume more of a support role, does that satisfy Sadr's need to have the United States pull back? And does that, then, give him more incentive to not cause violence, to take on perhaps a more statesman-like role?

BENSAHEL: I don't think it will have a great deal effect on al Sadr, whatever the study group says. He's involved in a very high- stakes game of gambling for the future of his political party in some sort of future Iraqi government and some sort of future Iraq political situation.

LIN: So, you're saying he's going to fight to the end?

BENSAHEL: I'm not sure that it will be to the end. But even if the U.S. troops withdraw, that won't solve the problem of the fact that the Iraqi government is fairly weak, and he will become an increased power player there, as well.

LIN: Yes, some one to be dealt with, then?

BENSAHEL: Absolutely.

LIN: All right, a player in the region. Nora Bensahel, thank you very much.

Now, Iraq, Rumsfeld, Bush, and beyond. The best of Sunday's political talk shows. We'll have the highlights in case you missed it.

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LIN: One of the big stories tonight, this wildfire burning out of control in Ventura County, California. This is just north of Los Angeles. It started in Ranchland. What you're looking at is what used to be a dried flower factory, that is virtually consumed by that blaze.

Hurricane-force winds blowing in that part of the state right now; hot, dry desert winds fueling these flames. Our Ted Rowlands is on the road, right behind that fire, he's finding stories, talking to people. And we'll bring you all of this coverage and developments throughout the night.

In the meantime, earlier, in case you missed it, let's check some of the highlights from the Sunday morning talk shows. There was a lot of reaction from congressional leaders to Donald Rumsfeld's memo about a major military adjustment in Iraq.

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SEN. CARL LEVIN, (D-MI): I sure wish Rumsfeld had spoken up a lot earlier and not waited until he was walking out the door. It's very important suggestion, one of many, that the president consider that we change the course in Iraq in a serious way. What we heard during the election was that if you suggested a change of course, that somehow or another you were a cut-and-runner, that you were less than patriotic, you were a defeatist. That's what we heard from the president during the campaign. Now it turns out his secretary of Defense has apparently, at least for some period of time, thought that we got to change things in Iraq.

SEN. CHUCK HAGEL, (R-NE): I think it's a little late for the secretary of Defense to be sending a memo, at least when it's purported he sent, after almost four years to finally acknowledged that maybe we should change strategy, change policy and acknowledge, for the first time I'm aware of, our policy in Iraq is not working.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: And more concerns about Iraq from Senator Dianne Feinstein. The California Democrat says President Bush seems inflexible to the extreme.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN, (D-CA): He doesn't listen. That's just a fact. I don't think he listens to Republicans. He doesn't listen to Democrats. He listens only to the selected few around him, who essentially cater to this stay the course theory. And the American people have now spoken, and I think the White House should listen to that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: And the countdown to the 2008 presidential election continues. Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack is already in the race. He formally announced his bid last week, and today he revealed some campaign strategy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. TOM VILSACK (D-IW), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm just going to focus on what I have to do today. And what I have to do today is meet as many people as I possibly can, and convince them that I'm authentic, that I'm genuine, that I'm passionate. And that I have a vision for the future of this country, which is compelling, and I intend to do that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIN: The best political team in television covering the presidential election in 2008.

In the meantime, you know about that big fire burning in Southern California? We are going to check on the weather conditions with Jacqui Jeras next.

At the top of the hour, a special "CNN Presents", Christiane Amanpour reports from the villages of Kenya, where AIDS has orphaned millions of children. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)

LIN: Once again, following a wildfire burning out of control in Ventura County, California, where hot, dry desert winds are fueling and fanning those flames. You're watching as a factory, a dried flower factory is simply being disintegrated by these flames. Our Ted Rowlands is on the road right now taking a look at what other fires are burning there. What firefighters are doing. So far, no major injuries to report. Evacuation orders are in effect.

Let's check with Jacqui Jeras for a quick check on what the weather will be like.

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LIN: I'm Carol Lin at the CNN Center. Stay with us, next on CNN, "CNN Presents" Christiane Amanpour explores the problem of AIDS orphans in Africa.

And then at 9 p.m. Eastern, reality TV star Dwayne "Dog" Chapman talks about the legal problem he's in, all for catching a fugitive rapist.

And at 10:00 p.m., right here in the NEWSROOM, a movie about the nativity gets a cold shoulder from city hall in Chicago. That movie, being shown at a Christmas festival. All that in the coming hours. Headlines when I come back and then "CNN Presents".

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