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'Ballot Bowl '08'

Aired March 03, 2008 - 12:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

MARY SNOW, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, and welcome to a new edition of CNN's "Ballot Bowl."
I'm Mary Snow, coming to you live today from Houston, Texas.

Over the next hour, you're going to have a chance to hear directly from the presidential candidates. They're either live, on tape, always unfiltered, as they campaign for crucial primary contests tomorrow in four states, including the big contests in Iowa -- Ohio, that is, and Texas.

And Candy Crowley is going to be covering the Democratic side. She's going to be joining us momentarily in these critical tests for senators Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton on what -- on this eve of what some are calling Super Tuesday Two.

But first, we're going to kick it off on the Republican side. If you're wondering why we're standing inside a basketball court, this is the site where Mike Huckabee is going to be having a rally later here today. He's still fighting in this campaign.

He kicked off the day in Dallas this morning. We just got some tape of that rally coming in. This is at Southern Methodist University.

So, for "Ballot Bowl" right now, let's kick it off with Mike Huckabee, earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHUCK NORRIS, ACTOR: Get all of your friends and neighbors and everybody out there to -- you know, to vote on Tuesday, tomorrow. And I should mention also, I have a nephew here that goes to SMU, Tyler Norris (ph). I don't know if you know him, but Tyler Norris (ph), he goes here. And you know, actually, I've done a lot of filming out here at SMU on the "Walker" series.

(CHEERING)

But anyway, I'd just like to encourage you to get out there, and let's make him win that. Because the thing is, if he wins Texas, you know, John McCain can't get his 1,191 votes -- delegates, right?

(APPLAUSE)

Now, if he done get the 1,191 delegates, that means it goes to the convention. And now they get up there and they talk. Well, you know who's going to out-debate all of them.

(APPLAUSE)

Exactly. You know, unfortunately, the rumors are out there that Mike Huckabee bowed out of the race, you know. I mean, all this negative thing here. Well, we know he doesn't.

He's not a quitter. He doesn't quit.

So, anyway, folks, just let's make this thing happen for him. Let's get out there and get those...

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're not quitting.

NORRIS: Yes, exactly. That's how I feel, too. And so let's get out there and get those votes tomorrow morning for him, and let's make him win the state of Texas, and then go to convention. And he'll wind up winning that and he'll wind up becoming our next president of the United States -- Mike Huckabee!

(APPLAUSE)

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you very much, Chuck.

Now, tomorrow is voting day. You hear some politicians say things like, now it doesn't matter who you vote for, as long as you go vote. Well, let me just make sure you understand.

(LAUGHTER)

It matters who you vote for. So, if you're going to vote for me, I don't care if it rains another 12 inches, you get out there and vote if you have to borrow a boat to get to the polls. You say, well, I'm not registered here in Dallas. Vote for somebody who is not going. That's fine.

Now, if you're not going to vote for me or you know someone who says, "I will not vote for Huckabee," do not let them out of their house tomorrow. Let the air out of their tires, tell them the election's been moved to April. Those are dangerous people. We cannot afford to have them ruining the future of our country.

In all seriousness, we need you to vote. And don't go alone. Get friends and relatives, the people you work with, and neighbors to go vote with you.

Over the last few weeks, there are a lot of folks who really want to say, well, why even bother letting Texans vote? I mean, after all, it looked like this thing is pretty well settled. And why bother?

And there are those who really think that we shouldn't even carry out this election. There have been folks who say we ought to just step aside. Even though the game hasn't ended, even though nobody has won yet, let's just go ahead and call it a day. Wouldn't have that been the smart thing had the New York Giants, during the Super Bowl, at two minutes, been told, hey, you know, guys, everybody says the Patriots are going to win. They've already got the T-shirts and the hats printed up. And there's really no point.

All of the odds makers say that the Patriots are going to win. All the sportswriters and the pundits say the Patriots are going to -- so, guys, let's just forget the last two minutes of play, let's go ahead and turn the showers on and call it a day.

Boy, that would have messed up the ending of that one, wouldn't it? But we want to mess up the ending that a lot of people have already written for tomorrow.

(APPLAUSE)

You see, my experience about Texans is this -- and Janet and I lived in Texas for four years back in the mid 1970s, 30-something years ago. And here's what we always found: Texans are a stubbornly independent people. And you don't tell them what they're going to do, because they'll turn around and show you, no, we're not.

And I think it would be a real shame to have the people of New York and New Jersey and Delaware and Connecticut and California tell you who you're going to vote for, and in essence say, don't even bother go voting because we've already made the decision for you. Now, think about what would happen in November if early on election night, after New York has voted and they voted over there in New Jersey, and some of the East Coast cities, television comes on and just says, well, folks, it really doesn't matter, it look likes the trends are established, so all of you west of the Carolinas, if you will, just don't even bother voting because we're going to go ahead and call the election.

Now, would anybody say, oh, that's fine, saved me a trip to the polls? I don't think so. In fact, I have a feeling that there would be an enormous outcry of anger in Texas alone to be told that.

Folks, here's what I want you to understand. The reason that this election is important, the reason that we want you to go and help us to provide the greatest upset on tomorrow is because we need to show the world it ain't over until Texas says it's over.

(APPLAUSE)

Now, I believe Texas voters are conservative. They are people who believe in the sanctity of human life and believe that it is the responsibility of us to protect and preserve every single human life, that that's a part of who we are. That Texas voters are conservative and believe the traditional family is the most basic unit of government, and without that basic unit of government, where we first learn right and wrong, that all the other forms of government are going to collapse on top of it because if the foundation's broken, everything built upon it will be broken as well.

Conservative Texas voters understand that. I believe conservative Texas voters also believe that we need a strong national defense we need the kind of military that is the best prepared, best trained, best equipped, best financed, so that anybody who even thinks about what -- and messing with us realizes they don't want to engage us because they know what the outcome would be before they ever started the conflict.

(APPLAUSE)

I believe Texas voters believe that lower taxes are better than higher taxes, and the last thing government needs is more of our money so they can figure out how to waste more of it and put us even in a greater debt than the $9 trillion they've already put us in. You know, as I listen to some of the other candidates, I get the idea that they really do believe that it's the purpose of the government to fix us. I tend to think quite the opposite, it is the purpose of us to fix the government. Not the other way around.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SNOW: And that was Mike Huckabee earlier this morning in Dallas, Texas, speaking at Southern Methodist University, getting a very early start on the campaign trail and this eve of Texas primary on what many are really referring to Mike Huckabee's last stand in Texas.

He is vowing to fight. When asked about what he will do after tomorrow, he says he is planning on winning in Texas, and he is not going to get out of the race until someone gets 1,191 delegates.

Now, of course, Senator John McCain is hoping that will happen very quickly. Let's take a look at the latest delegate count.

By our estimates here at CNN, Senator McCain has 1,033 delegates to Mike Huckabee's 247 delegates going into tomorrow's races in four states. Now, Senator John McCain is going to be campaigning here in Texas later today. He spent the weekend in Arizona.

He had a meeting with friends and supporters on Saturday, and then yesterday he even had a barbecue for members of the press, hosting the press at his home. Clearly, he is looking forward to the general election.

Our Dana Bash is with Senator McCain, and she reported earlier today that he was picking up two more endorsements, two from southern governors -- the governor of Mississippi, Haley Barbour, also the governor of Georgia, Sonny Perdue. This, as Senator McCain moves forward trying to rally the Republican Party around him.

We're going to take a quick break. And when we come back, we're going to take a look at the crucial Democratic fight. This, as Senator Obama and Senator Clinton battle it out, particularly in Ohio and Texas, and what is really being called Super Tuesday, Part II.

Stay with us. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) SNOW: Welcome back to CNN's edition of "Ballot Bowl," a chance for you to hear directly from the presidential candidates live, sometimes on tape, but always unfiltered.

We are hearing from the presidential candidates ahead of crucial tests tomorrow, particularly here in Texas, where I am right now, Ohio, also contests in Rhode Island and Vermont. A number of events are scheduled for the candidates today.

I've been keeping tabs on the Republican side. Mike Huckabee has stacked his schedule today, making his last stand, hoping to make a dent in the Republican race, as he is the last major Republican contender to challenge Senator John McCain. Mike Huckabee held a rally earlier today in Dallas. Let's take a little bit of a portion of that of what he had to say earlier this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HUCKABEE: People who were given the commission of design, if you will, true taxes that would stimulate the economy rather than it would destroy the economy. And everyone thought they'd come out with a flat income tax, but what they came out with was the fair tax proposal. And it made perfect sense because what happened was, when you don't tax people's productivity, (INAUDIBLE). And when you don't reward irresponsibility, you get less irresponsibility.

Today, one of the reasons that so many jobs disappear in China or somewhere else is because when the Chinese make a product, the same product that we make here, it comes here tax-free. The product that we make here has an embedded 22 percent tax in it because corporate tax is not paid to the company, it's ultimately built up in the price of the product and passed on to the consumer. And we wonder why it is that American manufacturers are struggling.

The reason is, is because if you have an economic system with excessive taxation, regulation, and the threat of litigation, you have job migration. And we lose the very jobs that we ought to be keeping. We can change that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SNOW: And that's Mike Huckabee earlier this morning in Dallas, Texas, trying to make his case for becoming president.

Now, the reason we're not hearing from Senator John McCain is because he hasn't had an appearance yet today in Texas. He certainly has a full day ahead of him though, but he spent the weekend in Arizona, where he really didn't have any public events.

He did host a barbecue yesterday for reporters, but it was off the record. It was not a real working situation. So we haven't really heard from Senator John McCain in the past couple of days on the campaign trail. But we certainly will be hearing from him later today.

But we want to bring in, and also want to remind you that, Candy Crowley has all that we need to know about the Democratic side. We're going to be hearing from her momentarily from Ohio.

But we want to bring in Bill Schneider, who has been poring over the poll of polls, a big look at where the candidates stand.

And on the GOP side, Bill, I mean, there really doesn't seem to be any question that Senator John McCain is clearly the front-runner.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SR. POLITICAL ANALYST: No, it's not even close.

Take a look at our poll of polls for Texas. These are the three most recent polls of Republican voters in Texas.

As you can see here, a pretty solid lead, over 25 points for John McCain. Huckabee is still getting a respectable vote. He's getting nearly a third of vote, 30 percent, but McCain has a solid majority, 57, which means there's still a faction of Republicans that stands behind Mike Huckabee -- conservatives, some born-again Christians. He's particularly strong in southern states like Texas, and they are continuing to support him.

Ohio, how come he doesn't do quite as well, he gets about a quarter of the vote? We did a poll of polls, the three latest polls in Ohio, and they show McCain leading by more than 30 points.

Again, Ohio's not a southern state, so Huckabee doesn't do quite as well. But he's still getting about a quarter of the vote in Ohio. But McCain clearly has a solid lead.

I think the point here is that Huckabee is hanging in there, and so are a lot of his supporters, continuing to support him despite the strong lead from -- for Senator McCain.

SNOW: And, Bill, you know, Mike Huckabee will make the case that, because he even has a quarter of the -- 25 percent at least of the vote, he'll make the case that that's a reason for him to keep on fighting, saying that at one point he was just an asterisk. Particularly here in Texas, he feels like he has a shot.

But is John McCain making headway with conservatives? We were talking so much about John McCain having to really heal and unite the Republican Party. Has there been a shift for him among conservatives?

SCHNEIDER: The answer is yes. It's not a rapid shift.

He carries conservatives in some states. I recall that he carried conservatives in Maryland when he ran in the Republican primary there a couple of weeks ago.

Southern states it's been a little bit more difficult because Mike Huckabee does have a base in the South. He's a southern Baptist preacher. He was a governor of Arkansas.

So he has a bit more following in the South. But slowly and surely, conservatives seem to be coming around to supporting John McCain. But still, Mike Huckabee manages to get a very strong share of them.

So, what you're seeing is a slow accommodation to McCain among conservatives, but still not overwhelming.

SNOW: All right. Bill Schneider, we're going to be checking back with you.

And we're going to be switching over to the Democratic side, take a look at what's going on today.

Stay with us. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SNOW: Welcome back to CNN's "Ballot Bowl," a chance for you to hear directly from the presidential candidates.

We're going to be joining CNN's Candy Crowley in just a short time. She is in Columbus, Ohio, keeping tabs on the crucial race between Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton. Tuesday such a big day for the Democratic side.

And before we get to Candy, we want to bring back Bill Schneider.

Because, Bill, in terms of what's going to happen tomorrow here in Texas, it's a little bit complicated. And we're hoping that you can sort it all out for us.

SCHNEIDER: Well, I'll try.

SNOW: Isn't it true that you can vote twice -- if anybody can, you can, Bill. We're counting on you.

SCHNEIDER: OK.

SNOW: So is it really true that you can vote twice in Texas?

SCHNEIDER: It certainly is. They have a unique system in Texas. You could call it the Tex-Mex plan.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER (voice over): Tex-Mex restaurants have these things called combination plates where you get a little of this and a little of that. The same way Democrats pick delegates in Texas.

PAUL BURKA, TEXAS MONTHLY: We have 126 by election, 67 by caucus, and 35 more are what they call PLEOs, which are party leaders and elected officials.

SCHNEIDER: The 37 page menu, officially called "The Texas Delegate Selection Plan," explains how it works. First, there is a primary. The results are determined by state senate district.

Simple? Not so much. BURKA: The senatorial districts do not all have the same number of delegates chosen. The ones with big Democratic turnouts get up to eight and the small ones can be as low as two.

SCHNEIDER: Hillary Clinton is expected to do well in low-turnout Latino districts. Those districts elect fewer delegates than high- turnout African-American districts where Barack Obama is likely to be strong. But the primary is only the first step.

WILLIAM JEFFERSON CLINTON (D), FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Texas is the only place in American where you can vote twice in the same election without going to jail.

SCHNEIDER: On primary night, voters are supposed to go to precinct caucuses where they can vote again to select more delegates.

BURKE: You vote in the primary, but then you have to have the motivation to go back at 7:15 to the site of the primary where your precinct election was held and vote for your candidate and it may be a long evening...

SCHNEIDER: Who runs the caucuses? The guide say if no precinct captain shows up, it's whoever gets there first. Imagine Clinton and Obama voters rushing to grab control. It's enough to give you the same thing you could get from a combination plate - heartburn.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: And one more wrinkle. In Section 1, Part B, Paragraph 3, Item A of the Texas Delegate Selection Plan it says, "Participation in Texas' delegate selection process is open to all voters who wish to participate as Democrats."

Now, that would include Independents, who tend to like Obama, and even some Republicans who may want to participate to stop Hillary Clinton -- Mary.

SNOW: See, I knew we needed you to explain it to us. You know, and we talk to Texans, they say, why do we have to be so different from the rest of the country?

But, Bill, do you see any potential problems tomorrow night when it comes down to it?

SCHNEIDER: Oh, yes. I mean, look how close it is in Texas. The race is very close. Just about two points difference between the two contenders, Clinton and Obama.

You could have one candidate who wins more primary votes than the other, and another candidate who wins more delegates. And each one of them will claim, "I won Texas," and then what do you do? You fight a lot is what you do.

SNOW: Yes. And that's why everybody has to keep watching CNN tomorrow night with our special coverage of all four contests -- Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont. Bill Schneider, thank you very much.

SCHNEIDER: Sure.

SNOW: And when we come back, we promise, we're going to be taking you to hear directly from the candidates on the Democratic side.

You're watching CNN's "Ballot Bowl."

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SNOW: You're watching CNN's "Ballot Bowl," a chance for you to hear directly from the presidential candidates. And we want to go live right now to Phoenix, Arizona, because that is where Senator John McCain is right now. He's live answering questions from reporters.

Let's go to Phoenix.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: As we all knew, the protege of Vladimir Putin was selected, the new President Medvedev. He is obviously an election that would not pass the smell test in any functioning democracy.

It's unfortunate that the people of Russia are now -- seem to be going back to days where they did not have the right to protect -- to have the right to a free election and even a free society. These elections were clearly rigged. The opposition was repressed. And it's unfortunate.

In the case of the attacks on Israel that continue from Gaza into the state of Israel, that have now increased, have increased tensions dramatically, we -- I believe that any nation has the right to respond to attacks. We obviously want a cease-fire, we want negotiations, but I continue to be disappointed in the United Nations Security Council and their failure to condemn the attacks from Gaza orchestrated by Hamas, a terrorist organization, into Israel. This weakens, obviously, the position of Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah, and the situation becomes more and more dangerous, as we speak.

All countries in the world should do whatever's necessary to prevent an escalation of this violence and the needless loss of innocent civilians. And first, I would condemn Hamas and call on them to stop their attacks on Israel which are killing and wounding innocent civilians.

There's increased tensions between Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia. As President Chavez has now sent troops to the border of Colombia. We also know that Ecuador is taking similar moves. I want to reiterate our partnership and friendship with President Uribe and the government of Colombia, their efforts in working with us in Plane (ph), Colombia, in trying to reduce and eliminate the flow of drugs across from Colombia into the United States of America. They are a vital ally.

I believe it's absolutely necessary that we complete a free trade agreement between ourselves and Colombia, which is being held up in the United States House of Representatives. If we turn down that free trade agreement, it sends a signal throughout the region that it's not very beneficial to be a friend of the United States of America. I hope that the tensions will be relaxed, that President Chavez will remove those troops from the border, as well as Ecuadorians, and relations continue to improve between the two.

I have no doubt that FARC is one of the premier terrorist organizations in the world who have engaged in widespread kidnapping, murder and drug trade for many, many years. I have made trips to Colombia and met the family members and even individuals who were kidnapped by FARC and had to payee enormous fines and there were many who were actually killed while in their captivity. They are a terrorist organization and one that I believe we must assist the Colombian government in repressing.

Finally, could I reiterate again my support of the -- of NAFTA. I believe that there have been millions of jobs created. I believe that billions of dollars in increased trade between our countries has resulted. And I believe that a unilateral renegotiation would have severest consequences for ourselves and our -- and relations between ourselves and our Canadian friends.

It has already been said that the Canadians may enter negotiations with China for sale of their oil. But it also sends a signal, if we unilaterally renegotiate, then the validity of other international agreements is -- would be obviously brought into question and those agreements we have would -- of whatever nature with other nations throughout the world. If there's a desire for both nations, either Mexico and the United States or the United States and Canada or any combination of that, to renegotiate in a mutually acceptable fashion that happens with treaties, but for . . .

MARY SNOW, CNN ANCHOR: That's Senator John McCain speaking live in Phoenix, Arizona, taking questions from reporters as Senator McCain gets back on the campaign trail after having a weekend off the trail. He spent the weekend in Arizona. He will be heading next to Texas.

And you hear him there talking about a number of global issues, as Senator McCain really trying to show his foreign policy credentials. Also, he's been playing up national security. Clearly a big issue going forth as he looks forward toward the general election.

And now we want to switch over to the Democratic side. Candy Crowley has been crisscrossing the nation with the candidates following them. Certainly such crucial contests tomorrow.

Candy, set the stage for us in Columbus.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN ANCHOR: Well, as you know, Mary, between Ohio and Texas, the stakes couldn't be higher for both these candidates. I can tell you that the Clinton campaign right now is feeling pretty good about taking both of these states. They believe, as one put it, that come Wednesday morning it will be very clear who won these states and they, of course, believe it will be Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Here in Ohio, nothing has touched a chord so much as the issue of jobs and the North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, that has been a major issue here as both candidates, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, have tried to be the one that is the most against NAFTA. They have crisscrossed the state. They did it in a debate, always talking about jobs and saying that they would look at NAFTA. That they, perhaps, would reopen NAFTA to renegotiate some parts of it. So the economy, the economy, the economy, at least for today.

Hillary Clinton was down in Toledo, staying right on message.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What I want to ask you to consider, as you move toward this important primary election choice tomorrow, is, who would you hire for this job? You know, in elections you can vote for or against a person based on anything. And that's our right. You know, in our system, nobody's vote is more valuable than anybody else's, which is why it was so important that you threw out the Republicans in '06 so we can be sure your votes count in '08 here in Ohio.

But, as you think about this election, I want you to imagine that when the next president is inaugurated on January 20, 2009, less than a year from now, waiting in that Oval Office is going to be a stack of problems. You know, we are going to have to go in and clean up after George Bush. And I don't know about you, but it took a Clinton to clean up after the first bush. It's going to take a Clinton to clean up after the second Bush. Because President Bush is going to just leave this big mess for his successor.

You know we got two wars going on. We got to end the war in Iraq and win the war in Afghanistan and go after the people and bring them to justice who attacked us.

We've got an economy that is not working for most Americans. It works fine if you're wealthy and well connected, but not if you're a hard-working Ohioan who's wondering, what are you doing? You're working as hard as you can.

Health care costs are up. Energy costs are up. Gas prices are up. And you're looking at your paycheck getting smaller and smaller by the time you pay for all the necessities. And you're wondering whether anybody in the White House even knows what's going on, aren't you?

Does anybody really care about the hard working people of Ohio? I do. That's exactly right, I do, because I know -- I know that it's the American middle class that built our country. It's not rich people. It's hard-working Ohioans every single year.

So what we've got to do is start making the economy work for you. And so who would you hire? Well, I've laid out an economic blueprint. Here's what I would do. Number one, we're going to change the tax code so it doesn't have one penny of help for anybody moving a job from Ohio to a foreign country. Those days are over.

Secondly, we are going after these trade agreements. I've said there should be a time-out on trade agreements. Every one of them should be examined to see whether or not they're working the way they were intended. This is not supposed to be a race to the bottom. We're supposed to be lifting up other people around the world to have a better life.

And specifically on NAFTA, I don't just criticize it, and I don't have my campaign go tell a foreign government behind closed doors, that's just politics, don't pay any attention, I tell you what I mean. I think we've got to renegotiate NAFTA.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CROWLEY: Now you heard that last sentence from Hillary Clinton. There is a big story today, a memo, that was obtained by the Associated Press, indicating that a top official in the Obama campaign met with someone in the Canadian consulate in Chicago and suggested that some of the anti-NAFTA talk that Barack Obama has had on this campaign trail should be looked at more in a political context than a policy context.

Now I will tell you that the Obama campaign says that memo, written by a Canadian official, does not bear any resemblance to what actually went on in that meeting. That they never suggested such a thing.

Nonetheless, 24 hours before a primary that is critical in this campaign, you don't want this kind of story surfacing. The Clinton campaign, through conference calls, through press releases, is really going hard on this issue, as is the candidate, on the stump.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: After days of denial, the Obama campaign has been confronted with the memo of a meet, is my understanding, in which there was a discussion of NAFTA. And it raises questions about Senator Obama coming to Ohio and giving speeches against NAFTA and having his chief economic adviser tell the Canadian government that it was just political rhetoric.

You know, I don't think people should come to Ohio and tell the people of Ohio one thing and then have your campaign tell a foreign government something else behind closed doors. So that's the kind of difference between talk and action that I've been pointing out throughout this campaign.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CROWLEY: In the Obama campaign, a spokesman for the Obama campaign says that, in fact, in that meeting, nothing of the sort happened. That nobody indicated that what Barack Obama is saying about NAFTA, his negative comments, is political and that he feels differently on a policy level. Nonetheless, there have been days of denial that that actually took place, including one official who said there was no such meeting. Now there is the memo that a top Obama official did, in fact, meet with a Canadian official at the consulate in Chicago.

This is an ongoing story. We will probably hear more from both campaigns today. So far, Barack Obama himself, campaigning through Texas, has not said anything about today's developments. Of course, he has been campaigning through Ohio and we'll take a look at some of that right after this break when BALLOT BOWL continues.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CROWLEY: Hi and welcome back to CNN's BALLOT BOWL '08, the Monday edition. I'm Candy Crowley in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio, of course, being the center of the political universe. Sharing the spotlight, however, with Texas as the two Democratic candidates really face the most critical primary day of this very long primary season.

One of the things that has come up over the past couple of days, brought up first by the Clinton campaign in an ad called "The Red Phone Ad," talking about who is it that you want to have answer the phone at 3:00 a.m. in the morning, that red phone in the White House, that alerts a president that there is a crisis somewhere in the world? The Clinton campaign believes that the more they can focus voters on the stakes at this election, and obviously nothing more at stake than national security, the better off she is.

Now, the Obama campaign responded with their own red phone ad saying, well, probably what you want at the end of that line is someone with good judgment. Barack Obama was the only one, of course, between the two of them, to oppose the Iraq War from the beginning. This was something they put on the air and also something that Barack Obama drove home on the ground. Here he is in Westerville, Ohio, yesterday.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA, (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: She didn't give diplomacy a chance. To this day, she won't even admit that her vote was a mistake or that it was even a vote for war. So besides the decision to invade Iraq, we're still waiting to hear Senator Clinton tell us what precise foreign policy experience that she is claiming that makes her prepared to make that -- to answer that phone call at 3:00 in the morning.

But I do know -- I do know what our campaign is based on. Yes, it's based on the fact that we should have never authorized the war that's costing us thousands of lives and hundreds of billions of dollars and distracted us from al Qaeda in Afghanistan and made us less state and fan anti-American sentiment around the world and frayed our alliances. Yes, that's one of the bases on which this campaign has been run. Our campaign is also based on the idea that we need to turn the page on Bush/Cheney diplomacy, where we don't talk to our enemies because John F. Kennedy -- because I remember what John F. Kennedy once said. He said, we should never negotiate out of fear, but we should never fear to negotiate.

That's what strong presidents and strong countries do. We talk to our adversaries and tell them that what we stand for and what we believe in and try to resolve differences without resort to war. That's part of what this campaign is based on.

Our campaign is based on the fact that I'm the only candidate who hasn't taken a dime of money from Washington lobbyists, who's actually worked to reduce the power of lobbyists in Washington. Our campaign is based on the fact that I'm the only candidate who didn't vote for a bankruptcy bill that made it hard for working families to climb out of the debt we were just talking about because I intend to reform our bankruptcy laws.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CROWLEY: Barack Obama in Westerville, Ohio, yesterday on both economic and foreign policy issues. I think you can hear the intensity that you've heard both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama over the past couple of days, that this is not only a critical race, but a very close race.

To show you just how close, I want to bring in our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider. He is up in New York crunching numbers, as he always does.

Bill, let me talk to you first about Ohio. What's the state of play?

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The state of play in Ohio is very close. Hillary Clinton, in the last six polls taken in Ohio, these are all public polls that are non-partisan, not associated with the campaign, using widely accepted polling methods, they show, on the average, Clinton ahead by five points. Hillary Clinton, 48, Obama, 43. But notice, first of all, that that margin is in single digits. It's within the standard of -- the margin of error of every one of those polls. So it's really too close to call. And there is still nine percent of the voters who are unsure how they're going to vote, even as close as the day before the election. So they are more unsure voters than the margin of difference by which Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in Ohio. It's very, very close.

CROWLEY: And, particularly, Bill, I think you have I have seen enough campaigns that we know if there is bad news that comes out in the last 24 hours, you begin to look at those undecideds and wonder, is this news pushing the undecided one way or the other? And we have, of course, this NAFTA story. Not a comfortable story for the Obama campaign at this point. Do you think that that's where the undecideds are going or is this simply that they're leaning one direction and they just don't want to tell pollsters at this point who they're going to vote for? SCHNEIDER: We don't know. There is no way to tell. All they tell us is, they don't know how they're going to vote. And there is still that residual close to 10 percent who simply haven't made up their minds, at least at the time of these polls, which were done over the last few days.

They can be moved by last-minute information. And they often are. But the question is, which way will they go? Will they respond to the negative information in Ohio. It's about charges against Obama and his position on NAFTA. In Texas it's the red phone ads. Will that move voters in one direction or will they respond against the attacks and say they don't want that kind of politics? We just don't know.

But we've seen last-minute changes in New Hampshire, which helped Hillary Clinton. And in some other states it's helped Barack Obama. And it often makes the difference.

There's a reason why. A lot of Democrats say, they could vote for either one. They like them both. So they can change back and forth.

CROWLEY: Bill, you disappoint me. I didn't think there was anything you didn't know. But let me move you on to Texas and how it's looking there. My sense is, at least what we've seen over the past couple of days, that this might be closer than Ohio or about the same?

SCHNEIDER: Believe it or not, it is closer than Ohio. We have six polls taken in Texas. Actually, five. There was six in Ohio, five in Texas. We average them. We get Obama leading by just two. How about that for a squeaker? Forty-seven percent is the average for Obama, 45 percent for Clinton with still 8 percent who say they're unsure how they're going to vote.

So, you know, clearly how those unsure voters are make up their minds in the next day or so can make all of the difference there in Texas where it's really, really a squeaker. And, don't forget, they have a very complicated system in Texas. So voting in the primary is only one step. There are also caucuses that can determine how many delegates each candidate gets coming out of Texas.

CROWLEY: Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, up in New York. We love these close races, don't we, Bill?

SCHNEIDER: Yes, we do.

CROWLEY: Makes for a very exciting night.

So coming up after the break, we are going to have a forecast, but not of the political sort. Of the climate sort, right after this. BALLOT BOWL continues.

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CROWLEY: Welcome back to CNN's BALLOT BOWL, the Monday edition. I'm Candy Crowley in Columbus, Ohio. A beautiful, but windy day here. Less than 24 hours before a critical primary here and one in Texas as well. Lots of delegates at stake. Some say Hillary Clinton's campaign at stake. Her own husband has said if she doesn't win Texas and Ohio, she won't win the nomination. So, a crucial, crucial test. We're always telling you that something critical is coming up. This time we really mean it.

There aren't any number of things that can influence the last 24 hours of a campaign. There can be late-breaking news. There can be momentum, which candidate looks like the winner rolling into the primary. And then there is the weather. As I say, beautiful but windy here in Columbus.

But we want to bring in our Chad Myers, our meteorologist, in Atlanta, because we want to know actually, Chad, about election day, which is tomorrow, in both Ohio and Texas. Anything there that might influence turnout?

CHAD MYERS, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Absolutely. We will talk about this event for a long time. Even on Friday, I thought this ice event in Ohio may be large enough to actually cancel or postpone the event tomorrow. It is going to be a devastating ice event from Canton, Akron, right through Cleveland and all the way across these northern towns. These northern industrial towns that lost a lot of jobs here.

These towns all the way from Sandusky, to Cleveland, to Ashtabula, and back down even into Youngstown, an ice event starts out as sleet, changes over to freezing rain and people will not able to move around in this area, this entire white area here tomorrow in northern Ohio.

Here's how it happens. A storm now in parts of eastern Texas and Arkansas will make severe weather today. Lots of tornadoes. We'll be here all night long. Also some snow will be here through Dallas until about 9:00 in the morning and then it's gone. So if you don't have to go to the polls at 7:00, you're going to be OK.

So of all there will be some light snow and any snow in Dallas is a bad thing, but we are going to see that snow and that ice move right up this cold front and right up into Ohio and it is going to be probably the worst voting conditions I've seen in Ohio. And even by late tomorrow night into Vermont. So get out there and vote early in Vermont because it's going to be an ice event for you there as well.

Candy.

CROWLEY: Thanks so much, Chad Myers.

Bad weather, of course, generally makes older people stay home. The very passionate only come out in weather the type of which Chad Myer is talking about.

So we are in the waning moments, of course, of BALLOT BOWL, least for today. And I want to throw it back to my colleague, Mary Snow, who is in Houston. SNOW: And, Candy, I just want to remain our viewers that, of course, CNN will have full coverage beginning tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern with a special edition of CNN's "Election Center."

CNN "NEWSROOM" is right after this. Stay with us.

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