Return to Transcripts main page
CNN Newsroom
Swine Flu Numbers Grow, Concerns Spread; Positive Effects in Afghanistan; Swine Flu and Twitter
Aired April 28, 2009 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
HEIDI COLLINS, CNN ANCHOR: And violent wake-up call. A tornado rips through a Texas town.
It is Tuesday, April 28th. Hi, everybody. I'm Heidi Collins. You are in the CNN NEWSROOM.
The swine flu outbreak. We are covering all angles of this developing story. CNN's chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta is in Mexico City, the area hardest hit by all of this. And Jeanne Meserve is in Washington this morning. She is monitoring the government's response to this threat.
And Tom Foreman asks the question that many of us are wondering. Is the United States prepared for a full-blown health emergency?
Let's first bring you up to the minute now. Since this time yesterday, the number of confirmed cases in the United States has more than doubled. The latest figure, according to state and federal officials, 50.
In the United States, there have been no deaths, though, blamed on swine flu. The illnesses have been relatively mild but in Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, the death toll is growing. The nation's health minister says 152 fatalities are suspected of swine flu.
Besides the U.S. and Mexico, swine flu is confirmed in five other countries now. The World Health Organization has raised its alert to four on a scale of six. That means the disease spreads easily but is not pandemic.
In the United States the confirmed cases are limited to five states. That's California, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and New York. In fact, more than half of the nation's cases are from one single place, a prep school in Queens, New York.
In addition to the U.S. and Mexico, here are the other countries now with confirmed cases. Canada and the United Kingdom, Spain, Israel and New Zealand. At least 11 other countries have suspected cases at this point.
So let's begin this hour in Mexico City with Dr. Sanjay Gupta, CNN's chief medical correspondent.
Sanjay, you are trying to trace the source of the outbreak. Have you been able to nail anything down yet? DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we know some of the earliest cases were treated here in Mexico City. The first case probably came outside Mexico City, maybe a place called Vera Cruz. That's what the health minister has been talking about.
But the real question is, how do you take care of these patients? What goes on in the hospitals? That's what we really wanted to learn.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA (voice-over): It started off like any other flu -- springtime in one of the world's largest cities. But within a week, Mexico City would look like this.
(on camera): It's hard to believe this but what you're looking at is a uniformed officer carrying a rifle outside a public hospital. We are here outside one of the largest public hospitals in Mexico City. You can't get inside. They're very concerned about crowds gathering in the wake of the swine flu.
There are lots of patients inside. Many of them waiting to see doctors. Many of them have been here for several hours. They have their masks on, but this is what the situation has become here in Mexico City.
(voice-over): Chaos, and yet patients need care. They continue to flood in all day, all night. The question is, how do you treat what you don't understand?
(on camera): They came in. They were in their 20s, 30s, and 40s. They weren't the elderly or the very young that you typically associate with the flu, but these are people in the prime of their lives. They were getting sick, they were dying, and the doctors here were mystified.
Over the next couple of weeks, they had a medical mystery to solve. And a lot of that solving took place right behind these gates.
We also spoke with Mexico City's mayor.
How worried are you?
MAYOR MARCELO EBRARD, MEXICO CITY: Very worried.
GUPTA: Very worried.
(voice-over): The hospitals are overwhelmed not only with patients but also with press. But we were able to get in.
(on camera): I'll tell you what? It's next to impossible to get into a hospital like this one. Finally, I told them I was a doctor. They let me in with a small camera so we can try and figure out how they're taking care of these patients with the swine flu. Let's take a look. (voice-over): We now know over the last two weeks nearly 2,000 people came to hospitals like this one in Mexico and around 150 died.
(on camera): As you can see, this is one of the hallways where they're taking care of a lot of the patients with the swine flu. As you can notice here, there are no patients in the hallway. They're trying to keep all the patients sequestered in the room.
(voice-over): But the key to all of this is figuring out who exactly needs treatment.
(on camera): One of the things that's so critical in an outbreak like this is trying to identify patients early. For patients at hospitals like this for two weeks before anyone could figure out what was going on, finally, someone realized that there was probably a virus the world has never seen before. And they went to laboratories like this one to try and sort that out.
(voice-over): The hospital management did not want us to see these hospital workers, upset because they weren't given masks or meds. They came out anyway and told us. Under all the pressure, Mexico City in springtime is starting to show cracks and everyone is hoping the swine flu can be controlled -- and soon.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GUPTA: You know, the statistics are that anybody who is watching your program right now, Heidi, is probably never going to get swine flu. The concern has been here for some time because this is a virus that we haven't seen before and we don't have any natural immunity to it.
We don't know what the fatality rates are going to be but here in Mexico City today, I can tell you the fatality rate seems to be going down and there seems to be less concern from the administration officials as well, Heidi.
COLLINS: All right. Well, that sounds like a very good sign. But, Sanjay, I want to get back to you being able to get into that hospital. You were very clear saying that the only reason I got in here was because I'm a physician.
Tell me a little bit more personally what that was like to walk down the hallway knowing what was going on inside?
GUPTA: Well, you know, this is a hospital that took care of a lot of patients with swine flu...
COLLINS: Yes.
GUPTA: ... and I wanted to understand how they basically were able to do this. You know, I wore my mask as you can see when I was walking down the corridors and that, you know, it's one of the best protections they have.
I thought the doctors in there and the nurses were pretty calm. The patients were all sequestered in their rooms as you saw. That's the mainstay of taking care of those patients. It's like an infectious disease protocol probably in most hospitals around the world.
COLLINS: Wow. All right. Dr. Sanjay Gupta for us live from Mexico City. Sanjay, we'll stay in touch with you. Thanks so much.
Across the United States a handful of schools are closed today. The reason? Some students have returned from spring break in Mexico and transmitted the virus to students who stayed here in the United States.
Last night, CNN's Anderson Cooper spoke to one teenager. She goes to high school in Queens, New York, and apparently fell victim to the virus last week.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ARIANNA ANASTOS, LIKELY HAS SWINE FLU: I'm feeling a lot better now.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: When did you first start to feel sick? And what did you feel like?
ANASTOS: I felt sick on Thursday. I was really dizzy. And I started having a fever and a cough and I had trouble breathing.
COOPER: How bad did the fever get?
ANASTOS: About 103 by Saturday.
COOPER: So then what do you do about it?
ANASTOS: I went to the hospital with my mom. And we waited for about an hour and I got tested by the strep throat test and the nose swab.
COOPER: You haven't been to Mexico. How do you think you got it?
ANASTOS: Probably from someone else. I mean, like, you know, people touch the railing on the school, like then I touch them. So any possible way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COLLINS: Arianna says hospital workers gave masks to her family and they also used gloves when caring for her at home. So far, no one else inside her house has gotten sick.
So how is the government responding to the swine flu outbreak? CNN's Jeanne Meserve is in Washington for us this morning to talk more about that.
Jeanne, good morning to you. JEANNE MESERVE, CNN HOMELAND SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Heidi, the administration is carefully calibrating its response to swine flu trying to react aggressively to the latest data without triggering panic.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MESERVE (voice-over): Flights are still arriving in the U.S. from Mexico, although Customs and Border Protection is watching passengers for signs of illness and some travelers are wearing masks. But travel in the other direction is about to plunge. Travel advisories now warn Americans not to go to Mexico if they don't have to.
JANET NAPOLITANO, U.S. SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY: They encourage individuals to avoid any nonessential travel to Mexico for the time being. You may ask how long the alerts be operative? The answer is we don't know.
MESERVE: With their frequent briefings and decision to distribute anti-viral medications to the state, experts give the government generally good marks for its swine flu response. There is concern, however, that if the outbreak explodes into a pandemic, public health laboratories will be overwhelmed.
A recent report says budget cuts have resulted in the loss of 11,000 state and local public health jobs and another 10,000 are in jeopardy.
JEFF LEVI, TRUST FOR AMERICA'S HEALTH: That could really be a threat because it would delay our ability to identify what's going on. And that's critical to a rapid response to a pandemic.
MESERVE: Experts say hospitals don't have enough beds, masks, gloves, or breathing machines called ventilators.
IRWIN REDLENER, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: I think the country needs on the order of 100,000 additional ventilators over what we have now.
MESERVE: Officials say it could take months to get a vaccine in production and then we may not be able to make enough.
MIKE OSTERHOLM, CENTER FOR INFECTIOUS DISEASE RESEARCH POLICY: The worldwide capacity to make the vaccine right now, John, is about 450 million doses of influenza virus for the year for the world, that's far short of 6.5 billion people.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MESERVE: Experts say there has been tremendous progress in pandemic preparedness that just hasn't been enough if this grows into a big problem and it hasn't yet.
COLLINS: Yes. That's the trick, too, isn't it, trying to make sure we stay vigilant but not panicking.
All right, Jeanne Meserve, thanks so much, our Homeland Security correspondent.
Still on the topic now of the government's response. Later today, the Senate is expected to approve President Obama's nominee for Health and Human Services secretary. Kathleen Sebelius would assume control of the agency immediately but the Senate has not yet confirmed the key members of her team.
President Obama on the eve of a milestone. Tomorrow marks his 100th day in office, a timeframe often used to measure the early effectiveness of an administration.
Now our political team has been looking into that. White House correspondent Suzanne Malveaux is joining us this morning from New York.
Hi there, Suzanne. Ninety-nine days, huh?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Ninety-nine days...
COLLINS: Seems like just yesterday he got into office.
MALVEAUX: You know it feels like a year already, to tell you the truth. On the very first day when his staff didn't even know how to use the White House computers or answer the phone...
COLLINS: Right.
MALVEAUX: ... President Obama, he was signing his first executive order to reverse Bush policy. Now covering a year on the campaign it has really become clear that he sees his pledge for change as really a mandate for governing during the first 100 days.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX (voice-over): The people voted for change -- and change is what they're getting.
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: You sent us there to change things.
MALVEAUX: It's the driving force behind President Barack Obama's first 100 days.
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: The heart and soul of Barack Obama's campaign for the presidency was that he was the candidate of change.
MALVEAUX: Early, swift, and bold, the first actions were aimed at undoing eight years of Bush. With a stroke of a pen, he committed to closing Guantanamo Bay, expanding stem cell research, opening government documents, supporting women's equal pay and funding controversial family planning programs.
But as Mr. Obama then tried to assemble his cabinet, crisis quickly followed. Six of his picks for the top posts ran into trouble, four for failing to pay taxes.
OBAMA: You know, I think this was a mistake. I think I screwed up.
MALVEAUX: Facing a market meltdown, housing prices and a startling jump in unemployment. Mr. Obama turned to Congress for billions to bailout the banks, and even more to jump start the economy.
But he failed to get Republican support for his mammoth economic stimulus plan.
OBAMA: Change doesn't happen overnight.
MALVEAUX: The insurance giant, AIG, presented his next big challenge. The company they've got billions of taxpayer dollars to stay afloat ended up giving out large bonuses to its top execs, enraging the general public. But as it turns out, it was the White House that gave AIG the OK.
The president explained he was in a legal pickle, and the press moved on. But the question that continued to hound him was, where's the White House dog?
OBAMA: That's a good-looking pup dog, though. Let's face it.
MALVEAUX: Bo, as well as the Easter bunny at the egg roll...
(VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: ... gave the president a rare moment to let loose.
OBAMA: Thank you so much for having us.
MALVEAUX: Change would also come overseas.
Mr. Obama's trips to the Middle East, Europe, and Latin America were aimed at repairing damaged relations. He even shook the hand of Mr. Bush's arch enemy -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. And signaled he wanted talks with Cuba and Iran.
In Baghdad, the president promised that the war that tore U.S. alliances apart would end.
So how does this president's first 100 days compare to his predecessors?
ALLAN LICHTMAN, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: He's achieved more in a briefer period of time than any newly-elected president since Franklin Roosevelt.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: Covering President Obama over the first hundred days, we have traveled three continents. He has held 15 press conferences. Tomorrow is going to be his third in prime time and that is after a town hall meeting where the president is going to take questions about his own performance, his agenda.
This really is a White House, Heidi, very media savvy in how it presents itself so, obviously, they've been preparing for this 100-day hallmark as well. Heidi?
COLLINS: For sure. Sure, before he came into office, I'm sure. But now listen. You know, obviously, this is just the beginning. The first 100 days OK but there will be many more 100 days in these four years. What's next? A lot of these policies that he has put into place certainly haven't -- you know we haven't seen them in action, if you will.
MALVEAUX: You know and it's far from certain whether or not this economic stimulus package is actually going to work. You know his own aides are saying, look, this is an experiment that's happening. We're going to see the president at the headquarters of the FBI.
We know that there's a real challenge there. A question whether or not the attorney general is going to press or prosecute some of those who had engaged in interrogation tactics considered torture. And we know, too, with this whole swine flu, this potential epidemic here how is he going to handle that crisis?
Obviously, they've responded but he still has a lot of vacancies in his administration when it comes to dealing with that.
COLLINS: That's right.
MALVEAUX: So there is a lot on his plate still, Heidi.
COLLINS: All right. Very good. And you are going to be very busy as we well know.
CNN's White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux. Thanks, Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: OK.
COLLINS: Real people breaking down the first 100 days. Next hour, we'll get their take on the president's handling of the economy, health care and foreign policy.
Also this. Tomorrow night at 7:00 Eastern, a CNN primetime special, "100 DAYS OF THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY." Our "NATIONAL REPORT CARD" will give you a chance to grade the president and Congress on how they've done so far.
Then, at 8:00 Eastern, President Obama holds a news conference. He will assess how well he is doing himself.
A day of tornadoes. Now many days of cleanup. We will take you to Texas. Look at that. Damaged homes and even a school. Trees are down everywhere.
ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: And now those storms are moving off to the east and then will refire again back to the west. It's that time of year, very busy severe weather wise, and weather is coming up when the CNN NEWSROOM comes right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Rob Marciano joining us now live from the severe weather center because, Rob, we have an awful lot to talk about. In Texas, nasty weather there.
(WEATHER REPORT)
COLLINS: I think we're looking at KPRC and massive traffic is what we're looking at. I know you can't see from where you are.
MARCIANO: I finally found a monitor...
COLLINS: There you go.
MARCIANO: Of the 105 TVs that we here in the studio, I finally found one that's actually dialed into our air.
COLLINS: There you go.
MARCIANO: And that's partially my fault. I shouldn't be some smarty pants.
All right, that's the latest from here, Heidi. We'll see you in about half an hour.
COLLINS: Hey, what do you now, your time is up. All right.
MARCIANO: That's how it works.
COLLINS: Rob Marciano, we'll check back later. Thank you.
MARCIANO: Yes. See you.
COLLINS: Don't start looking for Cuban cigars in American stores just yet. The U.S. may have made the first made the first move to improve relations with Cuban leaders but now some say it's time for a little give-back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: For the second time since President Obama took office, a state -- a top State Department official met with Cuba's chief diplomat but as Jim Acosta reports, for relations between the countries to improve, American officials are now looking for a sign of good faith.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ACOSTA (voice-over): Now that the U.S. has lifted restrictions making it easier for Cuban Americans to travel to Cuba and send more money to relatives on the island, the Obama administration says it's Havana's turn.
ROBERT WOOD, SPOKESMAN, U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT: What we'd like to see are some steps to give some of the Cuban people that are enjoyed by other people in the hemisphere. We just have to see how the Cuban government decides to respond.
ACOSTA: For the second time in about two weeks, Cuba's chief diplomat in Washington and a top state department official have had rare face to face talks.
To figure out how to warm up this cold war relationship. The White House is looking for some kind of response to its initiative. So far, the discussions are sticking to areas of common interest such as Cuban migration and cultural exchanges.
WAYNE SMITH, FORMER CHIEF U.S. DIPLOMAT TO CUBA: It does show that the ice is at least breaking a crack.
ACOSTA: You have to start somewhere?
SMITH: You have to start somewhere, exactly.
ACOSTA: Wayne Smith, a former chief U.S. diplomat in Havana says it's a welcome sign after former Cuban leader Fidel Castro downplayed comments made by his brother and current president, Raul.
RAUL CASTRO, PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF CUBA (through translator): We are ready when they want to discuss everything.
ACOSTA: Within days, President Obama had called for the release of Cuba's federal prisoners. Then Fidel weighed in saying Raul's comments had been misinterpreted.
SMITH: The best way to make certain that no political prisoners are ever released is to say release your political prisoners and then we'll begin a dialogue. There won't be any dialogue. There won't be any release of prisoners. You need to engage, begin a dialogue.
ACOSTA: Recent polls not only show American approve of Mr. Obama's new approach on Cuba. So did Cuban Americans.
FERNAND AMANDI, CUBAN-AMERICAN POLLSTER: But for the Obama administration, the surprising and the good news, you might even say about this poll is that the Cuban community which has historically been seen as being loyal and sympathetic to the republican party has given President Obama 67 percent favorability rating.
ACOSTA: Advocates for improved relations say keep going and end the ban on travel to Cuba but Cuban-American leaders in Washington say no mas.
REP. LINCOLN DIAZ-BALART (R), FLORIDA: The goal of the advocates, mass American tourism with its billions of dollars a year in U.S. trade financing so that the U.S. taxpayer ultimately bails out and bank rolls Fidel Castro.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COLLINS: Jim Acosta joining us now live from Washington. So, Jim, all of those changes that the Obama administration made were right before the Summit of the Americas. How serious now are these talks now with the Cubans?
ACOSTA: Well, I think you can characterize this as a safe lunch that was held yesterday here in Washington. And the Obama administration and the State Department are concerned that people are taking this a little too seriously.
They are insisting that the Cuban government make some changes first. And despite the polls out there that will show a vast number of Americans want to see the travel ban to Cuba lifted, for example.
COLLINS: Right.
ACOSTA: And despite the fact that business groups are lobbying Congress to end the trade embargo, the White House says it is not moving that fast. They want to see some changes in Cuba first, Heidi.
COLLINS: All right. Very good. We know you'll stay on top of it. Thanks so much, Jim Acosta, for us from Washington this morning.
ACOSTA: You bet.
COLLINS: Are we ready for a possible pandemic of swine flu or any flu for that matter? Right now vaccine production might protect only 1 in 5 Americans.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANNOUNCER: Live in the CNN NEWSROOM, Heidi Collins.
COLLINS: There have been swine flu symptoms on Wall Street, not literally of course, but investors are seriously concerned about how the outbreak will affect the global economy.
That is the hoping bell ringing this Tuesday morning. Those fears hit stocks yesterday and (INAUDIBLE) in sight of relief this morning.
Susan Lisovicz is at the New York Stock Exchange now with a preview of the trading day.
Hi there, Susan.
SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Heidi.
Yes, that's right.
We're gearing up for another lower open. Fears about the impact of swine flu are growing as the number of cases rise. And, of course, the impact on the travel industry, which is already taken a beating.
Another big concern today, the health of two of the nation's biggest banks. According to "The Wall Street Journal" government regulators have told Bank of America and Citigroup that they may need to raise more capital. The shortfall could amount to billions of dollars. This based on the preliminary results of the government's stress test, and both of those stocks are under a lot of pressure in the first few seconds of trading.
On the economic front, a widely watched housing report. It shows prices on the nation's biggest cities fell more than 18.5 percent in February compared to the year before. Not a single city spared from price declines. However, for the first time in 16 months, the decline was not a record.
Finally, the Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day policy meeting today. The Central Bank has already lowered interest rates to near zero. So not a lot of wiggle room there. So, Wall Street will be waiting to hear what other actions the Fed might take to stimulate the economy.
The Bulls aren't stimulated in any case in the first minute of trading. The Dow is off 0.75 percent. Ditto for the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 - Heidi.
We'll be back.
COLLINS: All right. Susan, we are watching. We'll talk to you shortly.
Thank you.
LISOVICZ: You're welcome.
COLLINS: Swine flu numbers climbing globally now. Here's the very latest for you.
At least 90 cases have been confirmed by health officials, mostly in the U.S. and Mexico. Hundreds of other cases are suspected of being swine flu, though. And Mexican authorities believe the flu is linked to 152 deaths.
The 50 confirmed cases in the United States, according to state and federal health officials, are in California, Texas, Kansas, Ohio, and New York.
You see the map there.
The median age of the U.S. cases is 16 years old.
So what exactly is swine flu?
It's a strain of the influenza virus that originates in pigs. Normally, that's where it begins and ends. But in rare cases, it can also spread to humans. That happens when the virus genes mutate. That's a scary part. And that's what we've seen in this case.
In fact, the current strain we've been talking about also has some genes in common with bird flu. This strain can be worse for humans, because we haven't built up immunities for any strains of swine or bird flu. The symptoms are similar to the regular flu bug. High fever, fatigue, chills and body aches. Also, nausea and vomiting. Now, other symptoms include coughing, headaches and a sore throat.
And here are some tips to keep the flu from spreading. Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze, and then, of course, throw that tissue away.
Wash your hands often with soap and water. We can't say it enough. Alcohol-based cleaners work as well. And avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. That is exactly how the germs spread.
As we see new swine flu cases pop up all over the map, we are all asking where will it end, how bad will this get, and what could be done to stop it?
Our chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta is joining us once again from Mexico City now to talk about one tool, the CDC and others, are using now to tackle this challenge.
So, Sanjay, we're talking about computer models.
What exactly can they tell us here?
GUPTA: Well, these models can be very helpful in certain situations. Keep in mind, that these were developed back in 2006, and they are just models. And they are also making a big assumption here. They're making the assumption that this virus was spreading from human-to-human much in the same way that the 1918 flu did. We don't know if that's to be the case.
But take a look at the model here. You see ten isolated cases in California, and get an idea of how that's going to spread. Within a few weeks, it starts to spread and eight weeks, even more. Within three months, about half of the people are infected. So you get a sense of how quickly something like this occurs.
Again, just a model here, but it shows you, even with a few isolated cases what can happen, Heidi.
COLLINS: Yes. And that's without doing anything. What if they use something like Tamiflu?
We've heard an awful lot about that in this case, of course, to try and stop the spread.
GUPTA: I think this is some good news here. And a lot of people...
COLLINS: Yes.
GUPTA: ...have known much about Tamiflu in this past.
Pay attention to this one. The top of your screen is what the pandemic is without any kind of action. Below that, add Tamiflu to people who have symptoms and their direct contacts, and look at the impact that makes. It's so important. About two-thirds less cases -- fewer cases. That buys you time as well. And time is important, Heidi, as you and I have been talking because that may give you time to build a vaccine. Something else that can help.
Incidentally, if you want to look at the vaccine, specifically, you can put that screen up and see what a vaccine does. It acts about the same as Tamiflu does. So the vaccine and the Tamiflu both have significant impact that's pretty similar.
COLLINS: Yes.
Now, what about shutting the borders, Sanjay? And stopping travel altogether?
I imagine that could be pretty effective?
GUPTA: Well, you know, it's interesting, because the World Health Organization officials were asked about that this morning. And they say they really don't have many plans to do that.
COLLINS: Sure.
GUPTA: And if you take a look at this last model, you may get some idea as to why that is. Shutting down the borders the way that people have been talking about really from a public health standpoint doesn't seem to make a huge difference.
COLLINS: Really?
GUPTA: Take a look at the mapping there and the modeling there. There you see. It really doesn't seem to make a huge difference, in part, because if you have infected people in a community, it hardly makes much of a difference of keeping other infected people out.
If the infected people are there in any way, it's going to probably spread around. So containment within family units, containment by individuals, probably much more key on shutting down borders.
COLLINS: Yes. OK. Well, interesting.
It's, also, obviously, pretty extreme measure when you need to do that. It sounds like it would have to be something that would be really, really devastating.
What's the big take-away message, though, here, when we look at these computer models?
GUPTA: I think there is a big take-away. And that is that none of these strategies and isolation seem to do as much as all of them combined together.
If you start looking at the things that work and add them together in a safe way, in a reasonable way like you suggested, Heidi, you can have a pretty significant impact on pandemics. When we compare this to other pandemics of the years past, we didn't have some of the strategies that we have now, particularly, these antivirals such as Tamiflu. They can make a big difference as that modeling suggests.
COLLINS: Yes, very good.
All right. Our chief medical correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta, right there in Mexico City.
Thank you, Sanjay.
Concerns over swine flu possibly becoming widespread in the United States. It may be heightened by a vaccine production lag.
CNN's Tom Foreman looks at why we may not be prepared for a possible outbreak.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Joe brought it home from the office. He gave it to betty and one of his kids.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Back in 1976, a swine flu scare spurred announcements on TV and calls for nationwide vaccinations.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Get a shot of protection. The swine flu shots.
FOREMAN: But a congressional report last fall says more than 30 years later we're still not ready.
The government wants enough vaccine developed and available to inoculate all 300 million citizens in six months for any kind of flu. But at best, current American production might protect one in five.
At the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, Dr. Michael Osterholm.
DR. MICHAEL OSTERHOLM, UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA: We have made investments in this country. In fact, the United States has made more investments in influenza vaccine work than any other country in the world. But, at the same time, it's still a long way from having a modern, efficient and really very effective influenza manufacturing infrastructure available.
FOREMAN: The report finds multiple problems. Vaccine production techniques are old and slow. With little profit in developing new ones, American industry shows little interest. And while foreign producers could help, in a pandemic, they'd likely keep their vaccine at home.
The U.S. government could spend more money developing drugs called adjuvants that stretch vaccine supplies. Europe is ahead of us on that. And in times like this, everyone likes such ideas.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We want to be aggressive.
FOREMAN (on camera): But when the crisis passes, governments, industry and the public lose interest quickly.
In 2006, an avian flu scare had governments worldwide vowing to stockpile enough Tamiflu, a drug that treats flu symptoms. Not even a vaccine. And yet shortages remain.
OSTERHOLM: If this virus does result in a human pandemic in the next weeks and months, we are going to be in a world that is going to need a lot of vaccine that it's not going to have.
FOREMAN (voice-over): Keeping them honest, we were warned.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Swine flu? Man, I'm too fast for that to catch me.
Tom Foreman, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
COLLINS: Ready or not, let's talk more about whether the U.S. is prepared to deal with a massive swine flu outbreak.
Dr. Louis Sullivan, a former secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, is joining us now to do just that.
Thanks for being with us, Dr. Sullivan.
DR. LOUIS SULLIVAN, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH & HUMAN SERVICES: My pleasure.
COLLINS: I want to refer back to April 15th. There was an article that you wrote that appeared in occupational health and safety magazine.
This is why, you say, disaster planning, disaster drills are so very important for this type of scenario that we're going through right now with the swine flu outbreak.
Look at what you say here. We'll put it on the screen for everybody.
"Pandemic planning should be viewed as an insurance policy against the economic damage that would result from widespread sickness, absenteeism and death."
How well-prepared are we right now in this country for a pandemic?
SULLIVAN: I'd say our preparation is moderate. It is not excellent, because you never have every eventuality really in mind. But, over the last several years, our federal officials, along with our state and public health offices, have worked for disaster preparedness -- to things such as flu, bio-terrorism and other activities. So there have been a number of interactions between Department of Health & Human Services, State Health Departments, businesses with large numbers of employees to be prepared for this kind of situation we're now confronting.
COLLINS: Yes, it's scary, though. Because, obviously, as human beings, you know, we feel like we're very much out of control of something like this.
In fact, I'm going to put a couple of other things from the article that you wrote on the screen now. Look at this.
"Experts contend we are closer to the next pandemic than at any time since 1968."
Is this outbreak of swine flu that next pandemic, in your opinion?
I mean, what is your biggest concern in this one in particular?
SULLIVAN: Our biggest concern is containing the spread of this virus. It's very clear that this virus really has reached a point of a point where it is spreading. It's not...
COLLINS: Because it's human-to-human now?
SULLIVAN: Exactly.
It's not yet an epidemic, but we do see every day new areas where it has cropped up. The number of people infected is greater. Fortunately, in the United States, those people who are infected seem to have a relatively mild infection, compared to what we've seen in Mexico. But we don't yet know what the full pattern will be in the United States.
COLLINS: Yes, which, again, is another scary part. Looking at the five states that are affected right there on our map.
All right. So you brought some props. You brought some blocks here, talking a little bit about how this mutated, if you will.
Talk us through it a bit.
SULLIVAN: Yes.
The problem with the flu virus it that it is always mutating. And this particular virus has incorporated not only elements of the swine flu virus, but also bird flu, as well as human flu. So if you think of the virus as something that's constantly changing, what we have here...
COLLINS: Let's point from this side because our camera guy is back there. There you go.
SULLIVAN: Right.
What we have here is one component gets coupled with another, and then a third. So you then have a new virus.
COLLINS: Right.
SULLIVAN: Now, fortunately, most of these times, the virus is not that contagious, but this particular virus seems to have bridged that animal to human transmission, and then the human-to-human transmission. So that is what we are concerned about. And that's why we need to enact those measures that have been talked about.
You're avoiding large crowds. If you have someone who is infected, that person should be isolated from others. If you're coughing or sneezing, you should cover your mouth. Wash your hands, et cetera. Common public health measures. They will have a major impact.
That, along with use of antiviral drugs like Tamiflu, that's indeed going to make a significant difference.
COLLINS: Yes.
And so this is all a list of things that public health officials can do.
SULLIVAN: Yes.
COLLINS: Quickly before we let you go, if you had to grade the Obama administration right now. Obviously, tomorrow is a 100 days that Obama has been in office, on pandemic planning, what would that grade be?
SULLIVAN: I would give it a "B."
COLLINS: A "B," OK.
SULLIVAN: The reason I wouldn't give it an "A" is we need -- and this is not the Obama administration alone, but the Congress. We need to have our public health officials in place. That's been taken a long time to get our secretary of Health & Human Services, other senior officials in the public health service.
COLLINS: Surgeon general?
SULLIVAN: Yes. Surgeon general, CDC director.
COLLINS: Right.
SULLIVAN: FDA commissioner. Those individuals need to be there so they can be in charge of managing this effort. So we need to have more action from the Congress and the administration for that.
COLLINS: Understood.
What a pleasure talking to you, Dr. Louis Sullivan. We sure do appreciate it.
Former secretary of Department of Health & Human Services. Thank you very much.
The World Health Organization raising the flu alert level to four. What does that number mean to you? We'll explain in just a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Tomorrow, as you well know, marks 100 days in office for President Barack Obama. One of the biggest foreign policy issues he's tackled so far is the escalation in Afghanistan.
The president has ordered more troops to the area, but as CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr tells us in this "Memo to the President," Afghan police are already making headway in at least one area.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Mr. President, the Kabul central market may never be safe enough for you to walk its streets, but it is here, a key Afghanistan strategy of yours is being put to the test. Unless Afghans believe their own government can protect them, the plan to send another 21,000 U.S. troops won't be enough to win this war.
Here in Police District Number One, the police chief, Colonel Abdul Rahman Rahimi, runs a tight security net.
(on camera): He and his men do this by being out on the streets, talking to shopkeepers. They know what's going on here. They know the people who belong in this neighborhood. They know the people who don't belong here. And as a result, things are going pretty good here.
The shops are busy. Women are comfortable coming out in this neighborhood. Children are out. You can see around me business is very brisk.
(voice-over): About one-fifth of the U.S. forces coming here will train Afghan forces, including the police who need training, equipment, and the confidence to challenge militants. Your commanders across the country say it's critical because the police are increasingly being attacked by the Taliban for trying to undermine the government.
BRIG. GEN. JOHN NICHOLSON, U.S. ARMY: They're attempting to reduce the capacity of the government to secure and govern the people.
STARR: Afghans say they want the Taliban gone but differ on whether the police provide enough security.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Usually the security is very good.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think security is not very good here and the security not as good as we're expecting. (END VIDEOTAPE)
COLLINS: CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr joining us now.
So, Barbara, you just returned from Afghanistan. What was your sense of the security situation when you were there?
STARR: Well, you know, there we were, walking through one of the oldest areas of Kabul with the Afghan National Police and everything seemed fine. It was really a very interesting experience to be able to, through the interpreter, to talk to the police, to talk to the shopkeepers. It all seemed pretty good.
But at the end of all of that, the police chief himself said to us, look, it's really time to get off the streets. You're Americans. You've been seen here, and there have been problems. Threats of suicide attacks just a couple of blocks from where we were.
So what it really demonstrates, Heidi, is there's an awful long way to go in Afghanistan, and a lot of it will depend on the Afghans potential as being able to look after it themselves - Heidi.
COLLINS: Absolutely.
All right, our Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr for us this morning.
Thank you.
And that little piece of information you just saw on the bottom of your screen, we want to tell you what that was.
Tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, a CNN primetime special, "100 DAYS OF THE OBAMA PRESIDENCY." "OUR NATIONAL REPORT CARD" will give you a chance to grade the president and Congress on how they've done so far.
And then at 8:00 Eastern, President Obama holds a news conference where he will assess how well he's doing.
Twittering about a serious topic. Is Twitter helping or hurting your knowledge about the swine flu outbreak?
Our Josh Levs reads your e-mails, and tells you what's hype and what's the truth.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: There is a whole lot going on this morning, and we have crews working to bring you everything you need to know.
Let's check in now with some of our correspondents beginning with you.
Hi, Elizabeth. ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Eliz -- Hi, Heidi. Why am I calling you Elizabeth?
What I'm going to be talking about today is, should the United States begin mass vaccinations against the swine flu? Lessons learned from experiences in 1976. I'll have that at the top of the hour.
ROMANS: I'm Christine Romans in New York. Remember those green shoots in the economy we have been talking over the past few weeks?
Well, what does the swine flu mean for consumer confidence? It comes at a very difficult time for the global economy. We'll talk about some of the risks.
I'll have that at the top of the hour.
MARCIANO: And I'm Rob Marciano in the Severe Weather Center, here. We've got flooding in Dallas -- or Houston, I should say, and severe storms will fire across western parts of Texas. Plus, another day of record-breaking heat on the east side of the U.S.
That's all coming up at the top of the hour - Heidi.
COLLINS: All right. Very good. Thanks, guys.
And another story that you won't want to miss certainly this morning.
We take a ride on the packed subways of Mexico City, a breeding ground for the swine flu.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLLINS: Swine flu and Twitter, a growing controversy over whether the social networking site is helping or serving as a hot bed of hype and misinformation.
Our Josh Levs is hearing from you about that very topic this morning.
Hey, Josh.
JOSH LEVS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Heidi.
You can see the headline for one of the most popular stories we have this morning. Swine flu creates controversy on Twitter.
And I'll show you the basic idea right here about what it's about. There are some people who are saying this. That what you were just saying, that's creating some unnecessary hype and misinformation. Others said, you know what, it's a great way to get information out there. Not everyone twitter. A lot of people don't.
So I'm going to use this screen to tell you the basic on why it affects all of us. Trending topics. This shows the most popular topics on Twitter at any give time. You can both of the top two are people writing about swine flu right there. And these are just some examples of the latest things going around. If you click on them you see anyone out there on Twitter writing things.
This one, someone saying, Brown, "The UK is one of the best prepared countries to deal with Swine flu."
Then you got another one here. "Outbreak of a new swine flu virus transmitted from human-to-human."
You see that very minute, there's another one of these. Some people are feeling overwhelmed. So what I want to do is tell you three major places that you can go to online that will help you get information you actually can trust. Relevant information from authorities. And they're right here.
You got CDC emergency, one of the key places. DHS Journal. Again, you see information from U.S. government. And down here, WHO -- the World Health Organization, the CDC, and basically the U.S.
Now, I don't expect you to memorize all of this. You can get links to all of it in my page, Josh Levs CNN.
But what you find as we take a look around, we're having this conversation today -- we're asking people, is it going too far? Is it too much? Is it not enough? How are you feeling?
Here's an example of something someone has write. BrownLovelyLady, calling herself. She says, "Leave the doctoring to the doctors, people. Don't listen to the Twitternuts. Come on! Let's get together, people."
So, Heidi, this is the conversation we're having on Twitter right now. My page, Josh Levs CNN.
I'm wondering what people are thinking? Are you getting great information or just getting overwhelmed? That's the question.
COLLINS: Yes. And Josh, our iReporters are having this debate as well.
LEVS: Yes.
COLLINS: As you can imagine.
What are you hearing from them?
LEVS: Yes. You know, it's interesting. The same debate is happening on iReport.
COLLINS: Yes.
LEVS: I was actually just taking a look at that. Let's take a look first at what David Seaman says. He sees this as a major story. He wants information about it nonstop.
COLLINS: Sure.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DAVID SEAMAN, CNN IREPORTER: This is the most pressing thing the government has to deal with right now. I hope everyone in power, in the federal government is working on this around the clock on containing this problem because this could be an all-out pandemic. And that means -- the recession is still a big deal, but that now is the number two until this is resolved.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEVS: On the flipside, we got Melissa Fazl, who is in an area where she thinks that might get hit, but she says we all need to calm down a bit. Just take certain steps.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MELISSA FAZL, CNN IREPORTER: There is no reason for alarm, just some concern. And to take some easy precautions such as just using a little bit of hand sanitizer. Just make sure that you put a little dab right there in your hands, get it all around, interlace it in your fingers and make sure that you do get your fingertips like this.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEVS: See? She said we should follow some simple steps.
Heidi, we're hearing from people this morning. We will be back next hour with more of that.
COLLINS: All right. Very good.
Josh, appreciate it very much.
