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Sen. Arlen Specter Switches Parties; Economic Hope; "The Help Desk"; Mexico City Shuts Businesses; Arlen Specter to Switch Parties
Aired April 28, 2009 - 12:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: And happening now at the Capitol, First Lady Michelle Obama, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and -- I'm sorry, I just wanted to see who was there -- there is the first lady, right there, and Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. This couldn't have worked out better.
Among those honoring former slave and abolitionists, Soujourner Truth, with a statue. It is the first bust of a black woman that will reside in the Capitol. Truth, who fought to end slavery, was also an early crusader for women's rights. In fact, she tried to vote twice in the mid-1800s but was turned away.
This is going to be one fabulous event.
New developments on our top story to tell you about. Leaders in Mexico City are taking major steps today in their fight against the swine flu virus.
They have shut down restaurants except for carry out food. Movie theaters, sports centers, gyms, swimming pools, zoos, convention halls all ordered closed last hour.
Our Dr. Sanjay Gupta is in Mexico City. He is on the line with us.
And Sanjay, obviously this is an attempt by the city government there to control the spaces where people gather.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. This is all about containment, Tony. That's one of the best prevention strategies towards trying to control the spread of the swine flu.
Now, I will tell you, having been here for a couple days, some of the things that are now being ordered were recommended to several of these restaurants and bars and pools, and a lot of places were abiding by that. In fact, we had a hard time simply finding a restaurant to get some food yesterday. But I can tell you now, they've been ordered only to serve meals to go.
The idea that customers might congregate in restaurants. They've also ordered the closing of bars, clubs, movie theaters, pool hall theaters, gyms, sports centers and convention halls. Again, a lot of that was recommended a few days ago, but now this is an actual order coming down from the government.
So the numbers have been heading in the right direction, but containment, again, Tony, very much the key.
HARRIS: All right, Sanjay. Appreciate it so much. Thanks for the update.
Let's get to our Senior Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash.
Dana, in our world there is breaking news and then there is huge breaking news. You have the latter.
DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. We do have big news here on Capitol Hill. Senator Arlen Specter, now a Republican from Pennsylvania, has announced that he is going to switch parties. He is going to become a Democrat. This is seismic political news here in Washington for so many reasons.
First and foremost, Arlen Specter -- actually, this has been rumored all morning, but he did just confirm it. He put up a statement on a political Web site in his home state of Pennsylvania basically saying that his Republican Party, he no longer feels that it defines who he is. And he has said he has taken issue one at a time over various issues, but basically, bottom line is he says he doesn't feel comfortable as a Republican right now, so he is going to switch to become a Democrat.
So, it's big news. There are a lot of political reasons why he is doing this, Tony.
First and foremost, he's going to have or would have had a huge Republican primary run in the state of Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey, who is a conservative, was already running against him, already doing quite well in the polls. So that is another reason for this.
But it is a huge, huge breaking news story that's happening right now here on the Hill.
HARRIS: Dana, Dana, Dana, balance of power in the Senate, please.
BASH: Right. That's the next question. Thank you for asking that, because there's so many different facets of this story, and that is another one.
Right now, Tony, we have 58 Democratic senators. If Norm Coleman loses and the Democrat from the state of Minnesota actually wins, that would be 59 seats. We're still waiting for that to be formalized, but we do think that is going to happen.
Arlen Specter would give Democrats the 60th seat. What does that mean? We talk all the time here about how Democrats have a big majority in the House, a big majority in the Senate, but not a filibuster-proof majority. Sixty votes would give Democrats that majority. That is another reason why this is such an enormous story for Democrats, an enormous story when it comes to the future of the Obama agenda here on Capitol Hill.
HARRIS: Exactly. Well, and you led me right to the next question.
With a filibuster-proof majority, what would Republicans be able to do effectively to block anything in that agenda?
BASH: Not very much. But I think the one thing that I do have to say, though, is that it gives Democrats a filibuster-proof majority on paper in terms of the hard numbers. But what we have learned is that you have conservative Democrats, so to speak, who already don't necessarily agree with their majority party, who, depending on the issue, have not voted with them.
And Arlen Specter, as a new conservative Democrat -- because there's no question as a former Republican, that's what he would be on many issues -- he would not necessarily be a given in terms of a vote for the Democrats depending on the issue that is before them.
However, having said that, it certainly gives to the gist of the votes on any given vote going into any big issue: health care -- you know, even the nomination of people for the Obama cabinet, or for underneath the key agencies, it gives Democrats some breathing room that they simply did not have until now.
So, again, there's so many different facets to this breaking story.
(CROSSTALK)
HARRIS: Well, I want to talk about as many of them as we possibly can before I lose you.
You mentioned that he was in line for a tough campaign.
BASH: That's right.
HARRIS: But tell us why. Why was he so vulnerable to a Republican challenger?
BASH: I'm glad you asked that question. It's very important.
Arlen Specter, you remember, was one of three Republicans. He, in addition to two Republican senators from Maine, who broke ranks and voted with Democrats on the president's stimulus bill. That infuriated Republicans, particularly in his home state of Pennsylvania, where already, as a Republican, he was kind of an endangered species.
However, the conservatives still have an entrenched feeling that that stimulus package was the wrong way to go philosophically because it spent too much money. So, after he made that decision and made that vote, Tony, a conservative candidate by the name of Pat Toomey, who gave Specter a run for his money -- it was a neck-and-neck race -- six years ago, during a primary run, he said that he was going to challenge Arlen Specter once again.
The polls right now show that Pat Toomey is doing incredibly well and that he likely would have beaten Senator Specter in this primary. So that would have put Senator Specter basically out on the curb, or it would have forced him to potentially run as an Independent.
By switching, and becoming a Democrat, he can run again, and likely will run again, for his seat in 2010, but will do it in a much more comfortable position, particularly in his home state of Pennsylvania, because Pennsylvania has more and more become not a purple state, but a blue state on the presidential level and on the state level. It's become much more Democratic.
HARRIS: Can he -- sorry, Dana. Can he win as a Democrat in Pennsylvania?
BASH: Well, look, I mean, now he is going to have something that he would not have had at all before. In fact, I was talking to one of Senator Specter's longtime confidants, a former aide of Senator Specter this morning, who said if Senator Specter would have run, even as an Independent, he wouldn't have had the backing of President Obama. He wouldn't have the backing of Democrats, who right now, they have the campaign coffers that Republicans or even an Independent wouldn't have had.
So, the chances of him winning in Pennsylvania with the full support of the Obama White House are exponentially higher than him running -- first of all, ,he wouldn't probably have the opportunity to run as a Republican because he likely would have lost that Republican primary, but even if he would have decided to go as an Independent, it would have been hard. Now he has this huge organization that would almost certainly back him as a Democratic candidate in the state of Pennsylvania.
HARRIS: Wow. All right.
I want to continue to talk about this. I want to bring in our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, on this as well.
First of all, Bill, your thoughts on this report from Dana Bash?
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it is a very big piece of news because this provides Democrats with what is likely to be their 60th vote in the United States Senate if Al Franken is seated from Minnesota. And the courts have said he should be seated, although that decision is being appealed.
If Franken is seated, Specter becoming a Democrat, that means there will be 60 Democratic votes in the Senate. Sixty is exactly the number you need to control the agenda, to stop a filibuster. And that is the last Republican holdout for stopping President Obama's agenda.
This is a big breakthrough for Democrats. You'll remember last year in the election, they were desperately trying to get their number up to 60 in the Senate. They fell just short of that with 58, 59 with Franken.
Specter would make it 60. So this is very big news indeed, and very welcome news for President Obama.
HARRIS: Yes. We're going to bring in our Ed Henry.
Is Ed ready right now?
Until he is, let's get back.
Dana, are you still there?
Our Senior Congressional Correspondent Dana Bash.
BASH: I am, Tony.
HARRIS: Dana, here's my question for you. I'm wondering if -- OK, we'll get to Ed in just a second.
Let me ask this question of Dana.
Dana, if you were a Democrat and you're hearing this news, maybe one of the questions you're asking is, to what extent can we rely on Democratic Senator Arlen Specter? He doesn't agree with every Democratic position.
BASH: Exactly, and that was the point I was trying to get to before, is just because they on paper and mathematically would likely have a 60-vote majority, if, in fact, Minnesota goes the way we've been talking about, that doesn't necessarily mean anything. You know, it is true for any conservative Democrat.
HARRIS: He could be a Democrat in name only.
BASH: Well, right. I mean, that is true for any conservative Democrat. That's where Arlen Specter would be. But let's just also talk about Arlen Specter the person.
I mean, Arlen Specter takes pride in being unpredictable and kind of -- you know, I think this is probably case in point, what we're reporting right now. But even through the years as a Republican, and just the way he has worked as a legislator, he likes to be unpredictable. So that is certainly a telltale thing for Democrats to realize.
HARRIS: OK. So let's do this. You know how I like to do these things, Dana.
I'm going to bring in our senior White House correspondent, Ed Henry. Our senior political analyst, Bill Schneider, is with us as well, and our senior congressional correspondent -- all right, all the seniors are here.
So why don't we do this -- I'm going to tee this up, and then I would love for you to talk amongst yourselves about what you think this really means and the implications of this.
But Ed, I understand you have some news.
ED HENRY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Tony. We have some new information, the first that the president learned of this information about Senator Specter switching.
From a senior administration official, we have now confirmed that at 10:25 a.m. this morning, the president was in the Oval Office getting his daily economic brief. All of a sudden, he was handed a note. I was told this by an aide who was in the room.
The note said, "Specter is announcing he's changing parties." That's all the note said. Then a few minutes later, the president wrapped up his economic daily briefing. He reached Senator Specter by telephone. I'm told by this aide in the room that the president said, "You have my full support and we're thrilled to have you."
What's also significant is that in this Oval Office meeting, we're told that this was the very first time that the president or any of his senior staff really knew this was going on. They're insisting, at least in these early few minutes, that the White House was not locked in any significant negotiations, as we've seen with other party switches. That this was a surprise to the president this morning, and that the first the president heard of it, according to this early account, was at 10:25 a.m. this morning.
Immediately, we're hitting the White House, obviously, with the question of, what does this mean for the president's agenda? If now, all of a sudden, he has a 60th vote to break all filibusters, that will obviously help him. They're not getting into it because they're still in a bit of a state of shock here. But the one aide I spoke to had a big smile and basically said that tells it all -- Tony.
HARRIS: Well -- and Ed, before you were our senior White House correspondent, you were running things over there for CNN on Capitol Hill. Give me your take. We're going to get back to Dana in a moment, but give us your take on what this means for the president, his agenda, and working it through Congress, and then I'll loop Dana back in on this conversation.
HENRY: Well, sure. And Dana knows the agenda and how important this will be for the president, first of all, in the short term.
The timing of this obviously could not be any better for this president. We're on day 99. There were questions about what he's been able to accomplish.
Now, tomorrow, when he goes to this town hall meeting in St. Louis, and then has his third primetime news conference here in the East Room of the White House, he's going to be able to say, look, in the days ahead, the next 100 days and beyond, some of these Republican roadblocks may be pulled aside.
And so what I think it means - big picture - is all of a sudden, some of things like health care, some of these things like his energy reform, some more economic fixes. For example, his broader budget plan, what he wants to do with taxes, all of that could be that much easier if he's able to push aside Republican roadblocks.
Because that's been one of the big stories about the first 100 days. Is how this president, who said he was going to change the tone, who said he could work with Republicans, has not been able to bring many Republicans on board? In part -- it's partly the president's responsibility, but partly Republicans on the Hill have not wanted to work with him. If he can eliminate some of those roadblocks, this could smooth the passage of big pieces of his agenda -- Tony.
HARRIS: Boy.
Dana, any additional thoughts on this? I'm thinking if you're -- no, go ahead.
BASH: Well, I just want to actually read parts of Senator Specter's statement which we haven't been able to talk about, because it's pretty lengthy and quite interesting in detail. Let me just read you a couple of parts, Tony.
He said since -- first of all, he talked about the fact that he's been a Republican since 1966. But he says, "Since my election in 1980, as part of the Reagan big tent, the Republican Party has moved far to the right. Last year, more than 200,000 Republicans in Pennsylvania changed their registration to become Democrats." He goes on to say, "I now find my political philosophy more in line with Democrats than Republicans."
So there you see that he not only feels that he's disappointed with his party, but he is also moving with his state.
One other thing, we were talking about this critical issue that happened that really changed the dynamic for Arlen Specter, and that is his vote for President Obama's $787 billion stimulus package. He says, "When I supported the stimulus package, I knew that it would not be popular with the Republican Party, but I saw the stimulus as necessary to lessen the risk of a far more serious recession than we are in now."
And he goes on to say, "Since then, I've traveled the state, Pennsylvania, talked to Republican leaders and office holders, and my supporters, and I've carefully examined public opinion." He said it's become clear to him that "... the stimulus vote caused a schism which makes our differences irreconcilable."
So there you go. He says that he's unwilling to have his 29-year Senate record judged in Pennsylvania by the primary electorate, basically saying here that he is pretty clear that he probably would not have won a Republican primary, particularly because of this. And he decided to make this huge decision. And point blank, he says he's going to run in 2010, in the next election, as a Democrat for re- election to represent Pennsylvania in the United states Senate.
You know, it's interesting, Tony. I interviewed Senator Specter during that intense debate in his office specifically about the political ramifications. And even before he took that vote, he told me point blank, "I get it. This is going to be hard. This is going to potentially make this the toughest campaign of my life because Republicans are so against what I'm going to do." He said, "But I have to do it because it is something that I feel is right in my conscience and it's something that I feel is right for the country right now."
So that's why he went ahead and did it. But he went on without blinders on. He knew exactly the political ramifications. Now, I can tell you, ,back then, there's no way anybody thought he would take this step of switching parties.
HARRIS: Yes. Let me piggyback, because there are two questions that come to mind. The second one is probably the most important one. But let me take this one first.
I'm just thinking as the political right here this news today -- and Dana, you can take this on. And Bill, I want your thoughts.
As a matter of fact, let me start with you on this, Bill.
And then the rest of you, please feel free to jump in on this.
As the political right gets this news, the GOP gets this news, what is likely to be the public reaction and then the private reaction? And I'm wondering if the public reaction is, look, he's been a Republican in name only for years now, and tried to dismiss this decision, or, privately, is this something that is really going to impact this party in a meaningful way?
SCHNEIDER: Well, look, privately and publicly, I think they're going to be very worried, because this signifies something that's been happening for quite a number of years -- the disappearance of the Republican Party in the Northeast of the United States. Pennsylvania is a northeastern state.
Chris Shays was the only Republican member of the House from New England. He was defeated last year.
What happens to Republicans in the Northeast? Either they get defeated in primaries by conservatives who can't win in a general election, or they get defeated by Democrats in the general election.
They are disappearing, and they're becoming virtually a trace element all over the Northeast, and increasingly in the West Coast as well. Republicans have got to be worried about this, because it means their party is being decimated in some important parts of the country.
HARRIS: And quickly -- Bill, appreciate it.
Quickly, let me get to CNN Radio's congressional correspondent, Lisa Desjardins.
And Lisa, I understand you've been on the phone with Arlen Specter's office.
LISA DESJARDINS, CNN RADIO CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Actually, I'm standing outside Arlen Specter's office. He just minutes ago came out and announced impromptu to some, I'd say, 30 constituents who are here to meet with him that he's switching parties.
None of these folks expected this, and they burst out into immediate applause. An amazing scene.
People still have, literally, their jaws dropped as they were waiting to talk about health care. Now, this is a group that is here to talk about poverty and health care, so perhaps not the most conservative group, though I know some of the folks in this crowd are anti-abortion, and they love this decision, at least the group standing outside Arlen Specter's office right now.
HARRIS: Wow. Lisa, appreciate that. Thank you.
And our White House correspondent, Ed Henry.
And Ed, I'll pose this question to you, and then back to Dana Bash.
The Republican Party gets this news, and what's likely to be the public reaction? And then, do you suspect that the private reaction in the caucuses will be different?
HENRY: Well, in public, you'll hear a lot of trying to come together. And there won't be retribution, et cetera, from at least some of the leaders.
I suspect a lot of conservative activists who, for many years, have not been big fans of Arlen Specter since he's always been a moderate Republican, as Dana has been reporting about, on various positions that he's taken, are going to be frustrated. And they're going to lash out at him and be particularly upset that groups like the Republican Campaign Committee, the leadership, they have supported Arlen Specter with campaign money in recent months, recent years, and stood behind him even when he broke with the party.
They're going to be very frustrated. But I think this is going to be more, if you take a step back, another important moment as Republicans try to rebuild and come out of two big election losses, and figure out who they really are.
When someone like Arlen Specter, who, again, has been against this party leadership on many, many issues over the years, but has still found a home in the Republican Party, to now finally say, look, I'm out and I'm switching, this is obviously a dramatic moment and is going to add to a lot of the confusion and hand-wringing about what's next for the Republican Party -- Tony.
HARRIS: Ed, appreciate that.
Dana, when we take a step back and look at this, this is not going to be a decision that was made because he wanted to extend his political future. I mean, there's going to be something at his core that led him to make this decision. And maybe that goes back to the statement.
BASH: It does. I mean, look, I think that bottom line political raw reality here is that he did realize that the way to extend his political future is to become a Democrat. And he pretty much says it in his statement, laying out the facts and figures that we all know about, that we reported about during the 2008 election, that his home state of Pennsylvania became much more Democratic. That the Democrats switched, 200,000 voters, from the Republican to Democratic Party. That, combined with the fact that he was in big political trouble because of his vote on the stimulus with his own Republican Party.
So, I think that there is no question -- I mean, nobody can say that this is not a raw political move on Arlen Specter's point of view.
HARRIS: Wow. OK.
BASH: However, having said that, I will tell just tell you just to give you the other side of that, that he also, as Ed was saying, as we've all been saying, he is somebody who has always been kind of a fish out of water with his leadership here in particular.
I mean, there have been times, Tony, where the Republicans and the leadership, at least in years past, have been trying to reach out to so-called moderates in his party. And they actually, for a while, gave Arlen Specter a seat at the leadership table just to show that they're reaching out to moderates.
But as you can tell from the events today, those kinds of moves internally didn't seem to make much difference when you look at the big picture of where things stand with this.
HARRIS: And Bill, I'm sorry, I kind of want to wrap this, but I kind of want to keep talking about this. Bill, I'm thinking Susan Collins. I'm thinking...
SCHNEIDER: Olympia Snowe.
HARRIS: Olympia Snowe.
What are your thoughts? Could we see more of these defections?
SCHNEIDER: Tony, this has been going on for years. Republicans in the Northeast have been defeated, they've been defeated in primaries by conservative opponents who can't win. They've been losing general elections.
The Republican Party, there's a big message here, which is that the Republican Party has moved so far to the right, that it is making itself uncompetitive in significant parts of the country like the Northeast. This is really a cannon shot at them, saying this party is no longer competitive in lots of the country.
Maine, they still have two Republican senators. They're both moderates. They're hanging on, but it's going to be tougher and tougher for those Republicans to hang on. It's got to worry the Republicans just because they're just not competitive anymore.
HARRIS: That is so interesting. Bill, hang on just a second.
And let's get back to CNN Radio's Lisa Desjardins.
And Lisa, what do you have for us?
DESJARDINS: Hey. A few more things, Tony.
We know that Arlen Specter, as Dana's been reporting, is getting ready for a news conference, but his staff is still planning that. They're still kind of juggling all of the press attention that they're suddenly getting.
The other thing, talking more to these constituents who are waiting to just meet Arlen Specter's staff, who were there for the announcement, they say they weren't altogether sure they were going to vote for him for Senate this year. And all of them say, absolutely, he has our support now. We like that he's a Democrat. We think that that is better for him, better for our state.
This is just one group of constituents, but that's clearly the reaction that Arlen Specter wants, and he got it from the group that he saw today.
HARRIS: OK. Lisa, appreciate that.
Let's roll this.
Did we just get this?
All right. Video from just outside Arlen Specter's Senate office as I go back -- we'll roll this as I go back to Dana.
And Dana, again, let's -- we've been sort of in the weeds a little bit on this, but let's do a bit of a reset. And if you would, give us the big-picture view of this news today.
The same thing for you, Bill.
The same thing for Ed as we roll in these pictures from just outside of Arlen Specter's Senate office.
Dana, you first.
BASH: Well, big picture, that you can feel the earth trembling still here on Capitol Hill.
HARRIS: And Dana, let me stop you. I think we've got -- let's listen in to the senator.
(APPLAUSE)
SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (R), PENNSYLVANIA: I'm going to have a news conference this afternoon, and I would be glad to tell you all about it.
TED BARRETT, CNN PRODUCER: Are you going to do that here on the Hill?
SPECTER: On the Hill in the regular spot.
BARRETT: What was the reaction from your staff, sir, when you told them?
SPECTER: I'll be glad to answer all your questions.
BARRETT: These are your constituents right here. What do you say to them?
(APPLAUSE)
SPECTER: I don't have to say anything to them. They've said it to me.
HARRIS: OK. That was CNN producer Ted Barrett asking the questions of the senator.
And Dana, as we continue to take a look at these pictures of Senator Specter, take that step back that I asked you just a moment ago and give us the big picture on this.
BASH: Big picture is that Democrats are jumping for joy, higher than you ever thought that they could here on Capitol Hill, and Certainly down at the White House, because if things go as they think that they will in the state of Minnesota, Arlen Specter will give them, at least mathematically, a filibuster-proof majority in the United States Senate. And that could, depending on the issue, could have a huge impact on President Obama's agenda and its ability to get through Capitol Hill, and the ability that he has to do what he has to do.
And in terms of the big picture for Arlen Specter, you really heard his answer to Ted Barrett there, saying that he thinks that he's doing what is in the will, and with the desire of the people of Pennsylvania, a state that has increasingly gone Democrat. He is saying that he is doing the same thing, but we know the political reality is that a big issue for him is that he was going to have a Republican primary. That if the numbers would have continued the way they are now, he likely would have lost and potentially lost his Senate seat.
HARRIS: And one more quick one before I get to Bill and to Ed. How is the senator's health? We know he's a cancer survivor.
BASH: Yes. That's right.
He had been in treatment for cancer. He seems to be doing well. Every time -- or at least every other time or so I see him, I ask how he's feeling and he always says that he's doing well.
He seems to be certainly in remission, if nothing less. But he's definitely -- his health and his charisma and his energy is pretty remarkable to watch him, considering what he's gone through on a couple of occasions with cancer. HARRIS: Dana, great work breaking this news for us at the top of the hour. And let's do this -- Dana, thank you.
Ed Henry, our senior White House correspondent, and Bill Schneider, our senior political analyst, let's have you come back on the other side of the break, and we will get your big-picture view of this news.
And just another reminder while we have a moment. Don't miss our special primetime event tomorrow night. Boy, talk about things to talk about -- 100 days of the Obama presidency. We are grading president and the Congress on the job they've done so far.
That's at 7:00 p.m. Eastern Time.
And then at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, President Obama holds a live news conference. It is all right here on CNN with the best political team on television.
We're back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SPECTER: I'm going to have a news conference this afternoon, and I would be glad to tell you all about it.
TED BARRETT, CNN PRODUCER: Are you going to do that here on the Hill?
SPECTER: On the Hill in the regular spot.
BARRETT: What was the reaction from your staff, sir, when you told them?
SPECTER: I'll be glad to answer all your questions.
BARRETT: These are your constituents right here. What do you say to them?
(APPLAUSE)
SPECTER: I don't have to say anything to them. They've said it to me.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Boy, let me just read it to you.
Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter will announce today that he is switching from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. This switch gives Democrats 59 seats in the U.S. Senate. And if Al Franken wins the Minnesota Senate seat, Democrats will have a filibuster proof 60-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Reaction to this news from Senator Specter just moments ago from Senator Patrick Leahy, who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee. Senator Specter is the ranking member.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. PATRICK LEAHY (D), VERMONT: Specter will be just as independent as ever. He's not -- just like, you know, in our caucus, we don't have any automatic points for anything.
But I've worked for Arlen ever since he came here. We've done numerous pieces of bipartisan legislation, just as Senator Grassley and I have, Senator Hatch and I have. And I think having watched Jim Jeffords agonize over it, I know from some of the things that Senator Specter said to me over the weeks, I know how hard he's agonized. I believe he's going to be happier.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARRIS: OK. Big breaking news. Let's welcome back members of the best political team on television. Our senior congressional correspondent Dana Bash, our senior White House correspondent Ed Henry and our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.
And, Ed, let me come to you and let me ask the question I asked of Dana before the break. Big picture this decision for us with respect to the White House, this president and his agenda moving forward.
HENRY: It can certainly help. It's not going to hurt this president, obviously, to get one more vote.
As you and Dana have been talking about, if Al Franken is certified as the next senator, a Democratic from Minnesota, with Arlen Specter, you'd have 60 Democratic votes.
But let's be clear that that doesn't mean every single issue there will be 60 votes to break a filibuster. You have people like Joe Lieberman, as an independent, who can break away. You have conservative Democrats like Ben Nelson of Nebraska, who's not on board with everything this president wants. And so there will be some give and take. This does not guarantee that Barack Obama is going to ram through everything in his agenda.
But let's point out something else that could be down the road. If, for example, there's a supreme court vacancy in the days ahead, there will be a big battle between the left and the right about who's going to be on the court in that seat for the next 20, 30 years. All of a sudden the path for a Barack Obama nominee to the high court could have been smooth and that is a big, big deal - Tony.
HARRIS: Boy. And to our senior political analyst Bill Schneider.
Bill, take a moment here and walk -- from your perspective, walk us through all the ramifications of this decision. SCHNEIDER: Yes. Well, first of all, like many Republicans in the Northeast, he was facing a conservative primary opponent. He was clearly worried about his own survival.
But there is a much bigger message here. Is there an Obama realignment beginning? It's been going on for some time that Republicans have become more and more desperate in the Northeast. But President Obama's election, the conversion of Arlen Specter means that there's an indication President Obama is reaching out to the middle of the electorate, which the Republicans have increasingly abandoned with their move to the right. Particularly in the Northeast and on the West Coast, there are a lot of voters who do not feel comfortable with the Republican Party.
The reverse happened when Ronald Reagan was president. He brought -- reached out to a lot of conservative Democrats and brought them into the Republican Party, particularly in the South. Well, there may be an Obama realignment that is parallel to the Reagan realignment where Northeastern and Western Republicans are moving more and more to the Democratic Party and Republicans in those parts of the country are really becoming a trace element.
HARRIS: Boy, that's so interesting.
And let's get back to our senior congressional correspondent Dana Bash for us.
And Dana, just listening to Bill a second ago, it leads me to the question, what are you going to ask Susan Collins, Olympia Snow the next time you run in to them in those halls?
BASH: Well, I think the question is obvious, whether or not, you know, they feel -- still feel comfortable in their party.
But you know what? The reality is, they get asked that question all the time. And I think that they ask themselves that question all of the time considering the dynamic -- the recent dynamic and demographic shift that Bill was just talking about, particularly when you're talking about Republicans in the Northeast becoming, you know, an endangered species. Really an endangered species. And that is something that Republicans big picture have been talking about.
But let me just get back to a couple of tidbits that we have been learning as my colleagues have been talking.
HARRIS: Terrific.
BASH: First of all, I just got a call from an aide to the Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who said, you know, remember, we haven't been talking much about this, but there has -- there is recent history for a Republican becoming a Democrat, and that is Jim Jeffords from the state of Vermont. Well, Harry Reid was then the number two Democrat. And he was very heavily involved in wooing Jim Jeffords. We're just getting the beginning of the story and I think it's going to unravel as the day goes on. But apparently Harry Reid has been at least trying to talk to Arlen Specter about this for about five years. Five years trying to get him to switch. And I'm told that those conversations definitely picked up in the last couple of months in a big way.
So we're just getting a little bit more information about that. Again, I assume as people feel more comfortable talking about their very private, very hush-hush conversations about this, that we'll get more information. But again, Arlen Specter is going to have a press conference at some point this afternoon. We'll probably hear more about it from him.
And just a little bit of the dynamic of the atmospheric here. Right now, as they do every Tuesday, senators are having their lunches in the Democrat and Republican caucuses. And Republicans are shell shocked. They already had an emergency leadership meeting at noon. Now they're having their regular lunch. And I'm already getting some messages from Republicans saying that they are just shell shocked and stunned that this has occurred.
HARRIS: Wow. All right, Dana, I know we have to let you go. Appreciate it so much. Thank you for breaking that news. Dana Bash, our senior congressional correspondent.
Bill Schneider and Ed Henry still with us.
And, Bill, let me come to you with something we just received a short time ago. One of the comments -- we played a portion of the comments from Senator Patrick Leahy. But apparently he went on to say that in his conversation with Senator Specter, Senator Specter said to him, the party left him, referring to the Republican Party. The party left him. He didn't leave the party. Shed some more light on what you think may be behind that statement?
SCHNEIDER: What's behind that statement is the view of Senator Specter that the Republican Party has moved to far to the right under George Bush and since then. Since then they lost the 2006 election, they lost the 2008 election, but the Republicans show no sign of trying to recapture the center.
In fact, they've hardened their line on the right. They have adamantly opposed everything for President Obama. Not everything but most of the economic policies that President Obama is trying to implement.
And his view is, the party has moved so far to the right it's abandoned the center where he is and therefore he feels that he'd be more comfortable as a Democrat. It's a signal that the Democrats, under President Obama, are really moving to claim the center of American politics.
HARRIS: Wow. All right. Thank you guys so much. Our senior White House correspondent Ed Henry and our senior political analyst Bill Schneider. Thank you both so much.
Boy, what a morning, what a day and what breaking news at the top of this hour. Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter to announce later today that he is switching from the Republican to the Democratic Party. The Senate is, right now, in recess until 2:15 p.m.
More on this breaking news story here in the CNN NEWSROOM. We're back in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: On Wall Street, investors have had a lot to worry about in recent weeks, including swine flu and corporate earnings. But today investors are applauding new signs of life in the economy. Susan Lisovicz at the New York Stock Exchange with details on, OK, consumer confidence and home price - Susan.
SUSAN LISOVICZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Tony.
And consumer confidence is so important. Well, I guess it's the lack thereof that we've been dealing with for some time. But no question about it, big headline about two hours ago, Americans are feeling better about the economy. Consumer confidence jumped much higher than expected. In fact, now it's at its highest level since November. The conference board says the numbers suggest consumers believe the economy is nearing a bottom.
We should also say, though, the index still remains well below levels associated with strong economic growth. But economist Robert Bruska (ph) put out a note right after that saying that the report today adds more historically reliable recession ending signals to that of peaking weekly jobless claims. Those jobless claims still really, really high, but they've been going down.
Also today, home prices in 20 big cities fell 18.5 percent in February, compared to a year ago. That's not good. But the rate of decline is slowing. And it breaks the streak of record drops that began way back in October of '07. In fact, 16 of the 20 cities, Tony, show slower decline than in January. And that's really, you know, that's really how things are probably going to improve. It's not going to be a sudden about-face. It's going to be things are going to be less bad, if you will. And that sparks a little bit of a rally. As soon as we got the consumer confidence also, you know, of course, the housing numbers.
HARRIS: Yes, but look at this. Susan, look at this. That's not a big rally. Come on. I mean, are investors sort of taking this news with a bit of a grain of salt here?
LISOVICZ: Well, Tony, I know you like the silver lining.
HARRIS: Yes, I do, thank you.
LISOVICZ: And you know I'm happy to give it to you. We're dealing with a prolonged recession here. The worst -- the longest since World War II. So, you know, we're seeing stabilization perhaps. That's not quite recovery just yet. I mean the housing market is still a mess. When you see the declines, like Vegas, the housing prices declines, double digit declines, Phoenix and so on, we have the stress tests that are coming out early next week. A lot of questions as to what the fate of Citi and Bank of America.
Also the automakers. The Treasury Department, we got word, reached a deal to get Chrysler's creditors to reduce the company's debt. But Chrysler's not out of the woods yet. It's still got to reach a deal. It's got to finalize a deal with Fiat and that deadline is fast approaching.
So, you know, we're happy to give you the good news. The market's responding a little bit. And, you know, we still have the swine flu. So there's a lot out there, Tony.
HARRIS: Yes, yes, there is.
LISOVICZ: The bulls are nibbling though.
HARRIS: Feasting -- not full on feasting but nibbling.
All right, Susan, appreciate it. Thank you.
LISOVICZ: Grazing.
HARRIS: Grazing, yes. That's perfect.
And the big news this hour, Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter will announce today that he is switching from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. More reaction in just a couple of minutes right here in the CNN NEWSROOM.
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HARRIS: All right. Still getting reaction to the breaking news this hour that Senator Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania will announce this afternoon that he is switching from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party. I promised reaction. We have some from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid who writes, "I welcome Senator Specter and his moderate voice to our diverse caucus, and to continuing our open and honest debate about the best way to make life better for the American people."
All right. I want to bring in the host of "Roll Call TV." That is Robert Traynham. He is on the phone with us.
And, Robert, you certainly are aware of the breaking news this hour. What's your reaction?
ROBERT TRAYNHAM, HOST, "ROLL CALL TV" (via telephone): Mild surprise. I'm surprised . . .
HARRIS: You're not surprised?
TRAYNHAM: Well, no. And the reason why is because, you know, there's been rumors going around for quite some time that Senator Specter was going to switch parties. Although we thought perhaps he was going to switch from a Republican to an Independent and still caucus with the Republican. But this is a pretty big surprise and obviously he's switching to be a Democrats to be sure. HARRIS: And what about the timing? What do you make of the timing of this? And I guess the first question is, why?
TRAYNHAM: Well, there's two reasons. First and foremost, he's up for a very tough reelection next year in Pennsylvania. Pat Toomey, a former Republican congressman from the Allentown area of Pennsylvania, very conservative. He ran against Senator Specter in the primary five years ago and almost won. He lost the primary only by about 10,000 votes.
Senator Specter, as you know, voted for the stimulus package earlier this year, which really riled up a lot of conservatives in the state. The latest polling shows that if Senator Specter was to run as a Republican, he would probably lose to Congressman Toomey by about 12 point. So if you take a look at the sheer numbers, Senator Specter sat down I'm sure with himself and with his conscience and said, you know what, it's either switching to a Democrat now or it's losing my re-election seat.
HARRIS: And can he beat, what's the view at least at this point, could he beat Congressman Toomey in a general?
TRAYNHAM: Probably. There's no question about it that Senator Specter will probably win re-election. And it all depends on who the Democrats nominate in the primary. I assume it's going to be Senator Specter now. I guess the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania is now scrambling. Right now.
Look, Senator Specter has been on the state ballot running for governor, running for Senate and so forth ever since the 1970s. So many Pennsylvanians, including myself, being from Pennsylvania, know that name very, very well. They know that Senator Specter is a pretty honorary boy. A voice that goes back and forth. That's pretty much the curmudgeon (ph). And, look, he does deliver from a state, although he's a big prickly. There's no question about that.
HARRIS: Robert Traynham is the host of "Roll Call TV."
Robert, appreciate it. Thanks for your time and your thoughts on this news today.
TRAYNHAM: Thank you, sir.
HARRIS: All right. You've got questions during this economic crisis. Personal finance editor Gerri Willis is manning "The Help Desk."
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: Got a huge credit card problem or maybe you just want to raise your credit score. CNN's Gerri Willis is at the CNN Help Desk.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
GERRI WILLIS, CNN PERSONAL FINANCE EDITOR: Want to get you answers to your financial questions. Let's get straight to "The Help Desk." Allison Brower is the executive editor of "Redbook," and Jack Otter is a financial journalist.
Let's get right to the e-mails, guys.
Sarah asks, "I just turned 21 and because I enjoyed 18 a little too much, I went credit card crazy. Since then, two credit cards have been closed and I just got a letter from the third credit card saying they are going to close it. I have one card in good standing. I want to reestablish my credit because I am so young. I am also a student with loans. What advice would you give?"
Jack, how often does this happen? You know, those credit card companies, they give those college students so many cards. They get in trouble. This is a real problem for a lot of people.
JACK OTTER, FINANCIAL JOURNALIST: Spring break. Sure. Well, first of all, she's used that one card really judiciously. Make sure she doesn't overextend herself.
WILLIS: Which means not using it.
OTTER: Yes, exactly.
Number two, pay off those student loans. Never miss a payment. You know the good news here is, she's 21. A lot of people don't learn this until they're 50. I mean that's really good that she's gone through this. I think she'll be a good steward of her money from now on.
WILLIS: Pay it down, pay it down, pay it down.
All right. Bob asks, "we have a credit card we use only when we want to purchase something that we can pay off at the end of the month." Love that. "We pay no charges. Is this smart?"
Hey, Allison, there's like a little -- an interesting problem here I think.
ALLISON BROWER EXECUTIVE EDITOR, REDBOOK: Well, I think it's a very smart way to use your credit card. And some people feel like they're supposed to keep a balance over time and that's how you up your credit score. No. Making -- paying off your balances, making all your payments on time, that's how you keep a good credit score. And as long as he's not using more than half of his available credit on this big purchase, it's absolutely not going to be a problem.
WILLIS: All right. You heard it from the pros.
"The Help Desk" is all about getting you answers. Send me an e- mail to gerri@cnn.com or log on to cnn.com/helpdesk to see more of our financial solutions.
And "The Help Desk" is everywhere. Make sure to check out the latest issue of "Money" magazine on newsstands now.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARRIS: Let's get to some business very quickly here before we push forward to Kyra Phillips. Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter, it is the breaking news this hour, will announce later today that he is switching from the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.
And take a look at this. CNN's Ed Henry just obtained this photo of President Obama on the phone with Senator Specter just minutes ago.
And, Josh Levs, a lot of online chatter on this story already.
JOSH LEVS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No shocker here, Tony. Take a look at this. It's already jumped to be the number one topic on all of Twitter. People are weighing in like crazy. Lots of people have a lot to say about it.
If we can zoom in, I'll show you the (INAUDIBLE) topic here. It's at the very top right here. It's now beating swine flu. It hasn't been like that for days. Arlen Specter, right there, number one topic that people are talking about.
I'll show you quickly some things people are saying. Imagardener writes here, "Senator Arlen Specter switches parties. It's amazing how fighting cancer can change your perspective on life. I know it did for me.
On the flip side, joelgaines, "bye bye Arlen Specter. I congratulate you for finally showing your true colors. You won't be missed. You pal, Joel Gaines."
You can weigh in here on my Twitter page, joshlevscnn. Also just started a discussion here at the Facebook page if you do that, joshlevscnn. Plus, we've got a brand new CNN NEWSROOM blog. You can't miss it. Just go to cnn.com.
HARRIS: Awesome, awesome.
LEVS: Tony, we're hearing from a lot of people today and we can expect that to be the big talker, obviously, for the rest of the day.
HARRIS: And time for us to go. We are pushing forward now with the next hour of CNN NEWSROOM with Kyra Phillips in Washington D.C., the place to be this hour.
KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: It definitely is. I tell you, the karma follows me. Tony, thanks.
