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Hurricane Earl Threatens East Coast; Military Transfer in Iraq; Obama Speech Goes Beyond Iraq; San Francisco Implementing New Program to Help Kindergartners Begin to Save for College; Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski Concedes GOP Primary to Tea Party Favorite Joe Miller; Powder Keg of the Middle East; Growing Up Amid War; Hurricane Earl Threatens East Coast

Aired September 01, 2010 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

T.J. HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: We are going to pick up on what they were talking about there at the end. This hurricane, this massive hurricane. Hurricane Earl. It's making its way. There it is. It's big, it's powerful. It's going to be a menace. We don't know how big of a menace just yet.

But the East Coast, literally from the Carolinas to Maine. You just heard from Kyra there a moment ago -- Kiran, that yes, in fact, some evacuations are getting under way. More could be coming.

We are your hurricane headquarters. We will be live for you along the coast. Have the very latest for you with our Jacqui Jeras who's here for us as well.

Also, it's never too early, is it, to start saving for college. It's getting more and more expensive these days. But look at these guys. These little guys. Kindergartners. They're already putting money into the bank for their college tuition that they're going to use in about 13 years or so.

We'll explain that.

Again, we are your hurricane headquarters. Important for us now to talk about this hurricane. Hurricane Earl right now. . It's a category 3. It went from a category 4 to a category 3.

Do not let that fool you. That means absolutely nothing if you will because it's still churning up 125-mile-per-hour winds. It is threatening the East Coast. You see that track. It's on right now. And it could gain strength.

So, again, category 3, 4, doesn't make a difference right now. This is a powerful, powerful monster. Now even though it is still on its way, it's already having some effects, dangerous rip currents out there for swimmers.

Also expected to be North Carolina's -- near North Carolina's outer banks by sometime this Friday.

We do have some evacuations going on. Ocracoke Island, we just heard them talking about a moment ago. It's being evacuated but we're talking about tourists being evacuated right now. You can only get to this particular island by ferry. So that could cause some issues so they're trying to make sure all the tourists get out there.

There are people that live there as well, about 800 people that live there year round. Some of them hunkering down. They're going to try to ride this thing out no matter what. But they are being warned they need to stock up on food, water and other supplies.

Also, the Virginia coast, also on hurricane watch right now. The Navy as well getting ready. They are moving a destroyer out to calmer waters right now, just trying to get out of Earl's way.

Our Rob Marciano is there for us in Virginia Beach for us right now.

Rob, tell us the best you can tell us about when it might get to where you are and other people are along the coast and are we talking about a direct hit just yet?

ROB MARCIANO, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Well, that's a possibility. It's been a possibility the whole time, T.J. But what we've been hoping for really hasn't happened. We've been hoping for a more easterly progression of the forecast track. But it keeps getting shifted to the west.

And that means that North Carolina, Virginia, the Delmarva, and the northeast haven't been taken out of that forecasting margin of error, that cone of uncertainty. So it is a possibility to get a direct hit.

But even if that major hurricane gets within 50 miles of the coastline, or even 100 miles of the coastline, that's going to put some hurt on Virginia and Chesapeake Bay area and certainly the outer banks which you mentioned has some -- has some evacuations under way.

Hurricane watches are posted. Warnings likely to be posted later on today. Regardless of how close this storm gets, the water out there, although it's beautiful and calm right now, dangerous rip currents.

You know Hurricane Danielle was hundreds of miles away. Much, much smaller. And hundreds of water rescues had to be -- happened over the weekend from that storm. Can you imagine, as Labor Day weekend approaches over the next several days, as this storm comes up and churns up the water here, how many lives are going to be in danger of all those people in the water as we wrap up summer? That's a huge concern.

And the other thing, T.J., is that this area, at least in the Delmarva and Chesapeake Bay area, they really haven't seen a big storm in here since Hurricane Isabelle. So there haven't been many people that I've talked that are worried. And that's a little bit troublesome for sure.

We'll be tracking it live both here and across North Carolina over the next couple of days -- T.J.

HOLMES: Just on that point, if you can wrap up for me there, Rob, people just don't remember. It's not on their minds how bad these things can be. Is that affecting their behavior and maybe some people might not heed the warnings to get out of there because they just forget? It's been so long.

MARCIANO: Yes. That's -- you know, hurricane amnesia or storm amnesia, it's a real thing. And yes, that's -- that's going to be a concern for local authorities if the word does come down that they're going to have to start to evacuate people.

That has already happened down across North Carolina. If this thing keeps on its track, and maybe even just a little farther to the west, that means places here in Virginia Beach where it's just jammed with people.

I mean, last week of summer, this place is loaded up. And you've got a lot of people who aren't -- aren't very hurricane savvy either. We may not leave just because they're on vacation. And I -- whatever, I've never seen a hurricane. It's not a big deal. So it's going to be tenuous for sure over the next 48 hours.

HOLMES: Rob, we appreciate you, as always.

We'll be talking to Rob throughout the day. He'll be doing his reporting there on Hurricane Earl.

Rob, we appreciate you. Thanks so much, buddy.

Well, also this morning, something we're keeping a very close eye on. The official ceremony to show us the changing of the guard in Iraq. We still have this live picture, I will show it to you. That man there, that is Lieutenant General Lloyd Austin.

You see him in the crowd there. But he is standing at the podium. This is the official ceremony that is marking the changing of the guard. Marking a changing of the command in Iraq.

This ceremony happening there. That is Lloyd Austin, lieutenant general, who is now the commander of "Operation New Dawn" which officially begins on this day, September 1st.

So this ceremony showing us the official handover of that military command from the United States to the Iraqis.

Now we heard from during this ceremony also the -- Robert Gates, defense secretary. He is there as well as the vice president Joe Biden. Listen to some of the words he shared with the crowd just a short time ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: We kept a promise -- a promise made to the American people and to the people of Iraq -- by drawing down our forces to roughly 50,000.

And we're on track to remove all of our troops by the end of next year according to the agreement signed by President Bush made with the Iraqi government. (END OF VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Well, it seems like you have been seeing a lot of milestones for the past couple of weeks. It was just a couple of weeks ago we saw the milestone of the last U.S. combat brigade rolling out of Iraq.

Then we saw another milestone which was yesterday in the official day when Iraq took over. Then you saw the president speak last night on that milestone and then today, another milestone, you are seeing it happen officially. That ceremony which officially hands over command to the Iraqis.

Iraq prime minister has put all local governments and security forces as well on high alert, says he expects terrorists to stage symbolic attacks.

Our guest now is an expert on Iraq, both from a political and military perspective. Marissa Cochrane Sullivan is the deputy director of the Institute for the Study of War. She's also a former command historian for the Multinational Force in Iraq.

Ma'am, thank you so much for being here. You study war. So in studying this one, I don't know want to take anything away from the symbolism of what we have been seeing over the past 24 hours and the past couple of weeks.

But is what we're seeing -- is it more symbolic than it is substantive change in Iraq right now?

MARISA COCHRANE SULLIVAN, DEPUTY DIRECTOR, INSTITUTE FOR THE STUDY OF WAR: Well, good morning. Thanks so much for having me. There's several important changes that are taking place yesterday and today. The first is the change of mission of U.S. forces in Iraq and that's something that President Obama talked about last night in his speech and the vice president today.

And the end of combat mission in Iraq and the change to one of stability, of advising and assisting the Iraqis. The second important change that you've seen is the change of command of the U.S. military headquarters in Iraq.

General Odierno, who's less well known than General Petraeus, but made an equally significant contribution in Iraq, who's been there on the ground for over 4 1/2 -- almost 4 1/2 years, made a tremendous sacrifice.

He is changing command and relinquishing command to General Austin who likewise has served in Iraq under General Odierno. So that's the second transition.

The third transition is the U.S. lead will now go from a military lead to a civilian lead. So now the U.S. is still engaged in Iraq. There are still very important work to be done. But the lead on that work is the State Department, are U.S. civilians on the ground, and the military is now supporting that role.

HOLMES: And again we talked --

SULLIVAN: And --

HOLMES: And you explained there -- excuse me -- so much about, yes, so much of the symbolism. That is important to note. And yes, there is a change technically in the mission. But we still have combat brigades there that are ready to go at a moment's notice.

All this symbolism we have been seeing in the ceremony that we are watching, explain or describe how two different publics are taking this. The U.S. public might be doing it one day, happy to see it winding down.

But what about the Iraqis, how are they viewing this moment of essentially the Americans getting technically out of the fight?

SULLIVAN: Sure. Well, in Iraq this has actually been a transition that's been under way for months now. And the Iraqis -- though today is important in its symbolism, the Iraqis have actually had the lead in security since the security agreement went into effect in early 2009.

So this has been a transition that's been planned for months and years, that's been in the works. And so in terms of what you've seen on the ground, you're not going to see a dramatic change between what the Iraqis are doing and what U.S. forces are doing because the Iraqis have been in the lead. U.S. forces have been providing important advice and assistance.

But it's an important day for the United States in terms of what it signifies for the mission in Iraq.

HOLMES: How do you think this will affect the war in Afghanistan now? Not just a matter of so many troops are leaving Iraq so now we have more resources to go towards Afghanistan, but in how this war has been wound down and how it's been handled. How will that affect us moving forward in Afghanistan?

SULLIVAN: Well, I think there's certainly going to be increased attention on Afghanistan and the decision to add more resources has, again, come -- came earlier this year, late last year, when the president made his announcement.

So you've started to see that shift in resources as U.S. forces have come out of Iraq. You're seeing more forces go into Afghanistan. So there has been a shift in the weight of the efforts.

But there's still important work to be done in Iraq. And I think that we can't lose sight of the opportunity that we have in Iraq, the partner that we've gained in the Iraqi state and the Iraqi security forces.

And Iraq has transformed from a pariah state to a very important U.S. partner. And so I think that there's certainly -- you know, tremendous progress. But there's also a lot of opportunity and a lot of challenges ahead. HOLMES: All right. Well, it's important to note this symbolic day and the president did so last night as well. We will see what happens moving forward.

Marisa Cochrane Sullivan, deputy director of the Institute for the Study of War -- ma'am, we appreciate your time here. Enjoy the rest of your day.

SULLIVAN: Thanks so much.

HOLMES: And with the end of the U.S. combat mission, President Obama says that the Iraqis are in position to shape their own future.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The belief we share with the Iraqi people. A belief that out of the ashes of war, a new beginning could be born in this cradle of civilization.

Through this remarkable chapter and the history of the United States and Iraq, we have met our responsibilities. Now it's time to turn the page.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Well, the president's Oval Office speech was billed as a major address talking about the symbolism of what's happening in Iraq right now. He talked, yes, about Iraq but he also veered away from Iraq.

We want to bring in our White House correspondent, Suzanne Malveaux.

Suzanne, good morning to you. And I printed out that speech. It was about five pages. But the first two of the speech were dedicated to Iraq. Then he took a turn to other things, first of all, Afghanistan.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, one of the interesting things, T.J., I went to Fort Bliss, Texas, with the president yesterday where he met with the troops.

It is very clear that he cares a great deal about the service men and women. But, you know, let's face it. This is a war-weary country. People don't want to think about going to war again. They don't want to think about escalation in Afghanistan.

And so what was notable about what the president said last night, one of the things is that he did give a nod to President Bush's troop surge in Iraq by acknowledging it. By saying that this is the one thing that is going to be important and necessary in Afghanistan to end this war quickly.

I want to you take a listen to how he put this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: As with the surge in Iraq, these forces will be in place for a limited time to provide space for the Afghans to build their capacity and secure their own future. But, as was the case in Iraq, we can't do for Afghans what they must ultimately do for themselves.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

MALVEAUX: So, T.J., the president is already calling for the Afghans essentially to do for themselves. What did he talk about? Well, he talked about a July date -- at least a target date, if you will -- to start reassessing U.S. troops inside of Afghanistan.

So it's very clear here, while on the one hand he is pitching forward, saying look, we're going to escalate. This is going to be really important, this war in Afghanistan. At the same time, he's trying to reassure folks that this is not going to be an open-ended war. And just bear with me, stick with me here. We're going to get through this other war now that Iraq has ended.

HOLMES: And no matter how much war is on the minds of Americans, the president and his staff know full well the thing people care most about right now is the economy. He was able to weave that into the speech as well.

Let's take a listen and I'll ask you about it on the other side.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: Our most urgent task is to restore our economy and put the millions of Americans who've lost their jobs back to work. To strengthen our middle class who must give all of our children the education they deserve. And all our workers the skills that they need to compete in a global economy.

(END OF VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Now, Suzanne, just listening to that, if you only listen to that bit you wouldn't have realized that it was an actual speech on Iraq.

What do they feel -- yes, it's important on people's minds but still why in this moment did they still think it was important to get in something about the economy?

MALVEAUX: Well, T.J., I thought it was kind of an awkward transition, really, when you listen to how he did this. But he did make that transition. It's really important because, obviously, midterm elections around the corner, but what are people thinking about, what are they focusing on?

All the latest polls show us that the number one issue is the economy. Jobs is second. The deficit is third. And terrorism and the war is way down on the bottom. So people are not necessarily thinking about Iraq and Afghanistan. He had to make that turn. He had to turn the corner there.

One of the things he's trying to convince folks is that if we spend less money in Iraq, we can use that money to really invest here at home. I think that's the kind of message a lot of people are hoping for, that they wanted to hear. He tried to do kind of a two-for. I'm not sure if it really worked. But he is trying at least, the very least, to reassure Americans that he does get it, and he knows what they care about.

HOLMES: Yes. Like you said, there are a lot of people talking about that, kind of a different and even an odd transition to kind of make last night in the speech about Iraq and about Afghanistan and about war.

But getting away from the speech now, if he didn't have enough on the plate, the president trying to do what all of his predecessors weren't able to do. Trying to negotiate, trying to help with the Mideast peace initiative. Got a big couple of days coming up.

MALVEAUX: Absolutely. You know, all of the best of luck to him on this one. I covered President Bush, also covered President Clinton, watched those two leaders attempt and fail essentially to try to get those final talks and the Middle East peace process going.

What the president is going to do today, he's going to be meeting with four critical leaders. Obviously the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu; the Palestinian leader, Mahmoud Abbas. Also Jordan -- King Jordan -- King Abdullah, rather, of Jordan, as well as other leaders, who are going to be placing a premium here on whether or not they can get forward on final status talks.

Some really serious issues between Palestinians and Israelis within a year or so. So we're going to see if they are really serious about that. But T.J., this is just the beginning of a rather long process.

HOLMES: All right, Suzanne Malveaux at the White House for us. Suzanne, always appreciate you. Thank you so much.

Coming up, you're going to meet the high school graduating class of 2023.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GAVIN NEWSOM, MAYOR OF SAN FRANCISCO: How much money is this?

UNIDENTIFIED CHILDREN: Ten.

NEWSOM: Ten dollars? Do you think that if you go to college, do you think it costs more than $10? Probably. So you need a lot of these to go to college.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Yes. It costs more than ten bucks. That is San Francisco's mayor, Gavin Newsom. He says the kindergartners you're looking at here are seven times more likely to go to college because they're already banking away money for higher education, and it's all courtesy of the taxpayers. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) HOLMES: Fix Our Schools. That's a pretty big task. But those are three words that are going to drive much of what you see on CNN this week. Because as America's children return to school, CNN has a mission. Right here.

We've sent reporting teams across the country to document the education crisis in America. Most importantly, we're going to shine a light on success stories that could empower us to offer our children so much more than they're getting right now.

Today, a look at higher education and what it takes not just to get into college, but to actually pay for it. The federal government says 70 percent of high school graduates head off to college and university campuses, headed off last year. That's a record high. But higher education comes with a pretty hefty price tag. Those costs are going up as you can imagine.

Let's go back to 1977. Students could pay their tuition and fees, buy food, and pay rent, all for about $4,000 at a private college or university. It was about half of that if you win to a public university. But look at how much that budget ballooned in just over 30 years. You have to shell out about $40,000 a year at a private university.

So we wondered how much college is going to cost in 13 years when today's kindergartners enroll. The College Board predicting that by 2023, private school will cost more than $73,000 a year.

Nobody can afford that, essentially. That's a big financial burden for the parents. Possibly for the students. Whoever's going to be paying for it. But kindergartners in San Francisco's public school system starting to save for college right now. Those five-year-olds can thank the taxpayers for the investment. Our Dan Simon talked to the city's mayor about it.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NEWSOM: What would college be? Is it a sport?

UNIDENTIFIED CHILDREN: It's a kind of school.

NEWSOM: It's a school. Well done.

DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): San Francisco's mayor, Gavin Newsom, doing a classroom show and tell with five-year-olds.

NEWSOM: How much money is this?

UNIDENTIFIED CHILDREN: Ten.

NEWSOM: $10. And do you think if you go to college, do you think it costs more than $10? Probably. So you need a lot of these to go to college.

SIMON (voice-over): The mayor has come to Sarah Elementary School because starting this year, every kindergartner here will get a college savings account, courtesy of city taxpayers.

SIMON (on camera): We've never heard of anything like this before.

NEWSOM: No, to our knowledge, it hasn't been done in the United States. And what a nice backdrop, in the midst of everybody talking about budget cuts and constraints.

SMON (voice-over): The program, which will take a couple of years to fully implement, is fairly modest. Children will get $50 to start. $100 for lower income children. One of the goals is to get families to save. As an added incentive, a private foundation will contribute $100 for every child whose family saves $100, at least for the first few years.

JOSE CISNEROS, CITY TREASURER, SAN FRANCISCO: We know that $50, $100 even after 12 years of interest and compounding, it's still not going to be enough money. We know that what really needs to happen is the families need to step in. Families, relatives rs friends. They really need to help and augment those savings so they grow year after year. That's what gives a child enough money to go to college.

SIMON (on camera): One of the main ideas behind this program is just to get children thinking about college at a very young age. City officials like to point to a study from Washington University in St. Louis that found that children who just had some money set aside for college were seven times more likely to go.

SIMON (voice-over): This Latino father says he wants to send his two children to college but, like many parents, hasn't saved for it and is intimidated by the costs.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE SPEAKER: When you're unemployed and not working for five months, it's kind of hard to think about saving.

NEWSOM: One-half of the Hispanic community in San Francisco doesn't even have access to a checking account or savings account. But their child has that? And now it's being matched by the private sector? And Stanford University, and the Gates Foundation are going to do an independent analysis to see if this works.

And other members of the community are going to say, "Hey, you know what, I'd love to contribute." You watch. This thing will take off. All of a sudden, we'll deal with that one limiting belief. That is, "I can't afford college."

SIMON (voice-over): The program would have to survive budget negotiations each year, but at a cost of $200,000 this year out of the $6 billion budget, the dollars seem minuscule. Especially if it works. That, of course, we won't know for many years until these children reach college age. Dan Simon, CNN, San Francisco

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HOLMES: All of this week, we're looking at the problems facing our schools. Today, we want to know, should school be year round? Students, don't bother answering. We're going to be debating it among your parents at least in the next hour.

But we want to hear from all of you out there. Send us your thoughts, cnn.com. And then our digital producer, there he is, Derek Dodge, he's sifting through all of your e-mails, going to be reading some of your thoughts along in our next hour. Again, do you think we should switch -- we should all switch to year-round schools? Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: In Alaska, Senator Lisa Murkowski has conceded the Republican primary race to Tea Party favorite Joe Miller. And as CNN's Shannon Travis reports, he's not the only winner.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN POLITICAL PRODUCER: Here in Anchorage, Alaska, there's been a seismic shift in the political landscape. Republican senator Lisa Murkowski has conceded the Senate GOP primary to her challenger, Joe Miller.

SENATOR LISA MURKOWSKI (R), ALASKA: For the good of the state of Alaska, which is -- this is what this is all about, it's for the good of the state of Alaska. I am now conceding the race for the Republican nomination. I shared that information with Mr. Miller just a few moments ago.

TRAVIS: Joe Miller, you'll remember, is the Tea Party Express candidate who, back in June, when the Tea Party Express endorsed him, was a virtual unknown in this state. Many people had not heard of him. But the Tea Party Express took a candidate who had very low name ID, they poured in money, they poured in time, they poured in resources, and helped push him towards the finish line. This will also be seen as a political victory for none other than Sarah Palin. Sarah Palin endorsed Joe Miller back again when he had very little name I.D. That earned a lot of local and national attention. So, this will also be seen as Sarah Palin flexing her muscle yet again.

Shannon Travis, CNN, Anchorage, Alaska.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

T.J. HOLMES, CNN ANCHOR: Kicking off the election season, that means the CNN election express is going to be hitting the road. I will be on that bus along with John King and other members of the best political team on television. Travelling through battle ground states, catch our first reports on Monday, stay right here with CNN, as always, the best political team on TV. Quick break. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Earl is a category 3 right now, and it has people on edge all up the coast. People right now, some of them even have mandatory evacuations. That's for some tourists at least along parts of North Carolina along the coast there, but again, the warnings, the watches, and the stretch goes all way up the coast. Take a listen. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE COSTELLO. KENT COUNTY, DELAWARE RESIDENT: Very stressful. I mean, on a day like today, you can't imagine what it's going to be like on Friday if we get 50, 60-mile an hour winds. The water will probably be at high tide, be up over our chest right where their standing probably five, six, seven-foot waves in here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Even though it's on the way, some rip currents, waves, already causing a danger. Jacqui Jeras, you know, first of all, you had to set me straight a little earlier. No, this is very important, because, yes, it went from a category 4 to category 3. Anyone out there just hearing that might go OK, things are getting better, it's getting weaker.

JACQUI JERAS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Right.

HOLMES: Slow down, that's not the case.

JERAS: Really. Yes, I mean, you don't want to say downgrading, so to speak, because it's a major storm. 3, 4, 5, we're talking about a major danger. And if this thing deviates from the track at all, this is a huge problem for the outer banks. I mean, to see a major hurricane making landfall there, it's a good thing that they're starting to put those evacuations into effect.

HOLMES: But again, no matter, even if it doesn't make landfall, it's still going to do some damage quite possibly because it's going to pass by pretty closely no matter what.

JERAS: Yes. I mean, I think it's probably going to be within less than 100 miles. The tropical storm force wind field on this, look at how big this storm is. This is a big storm, T.J. Those winds extend 200 miles from the center of the storm. So, that tells you that we're likely going to those see tropical storm force winds. And this is probably about a 50 percent chance that you're going to see hurricane force wind gusts in the outer banks, and this is going to start really kicking in.

We think those waves are going to start to kick in a little bit today, throughout the day tomorrow, and then Thursday night and into Friday as when the worst of the conditions can be expected. All right. Here is the latest on Earl. Category 3 storm. That makes it a major hurricane. Maximum winds, 125 miles per hour. We got gusts higher than that. We've been seeing some structural changes here with Earl in the last couple of hours.

I want to show you this satellite picture because it's just so cool. This is showing -- if you look right in this little hole right there in the eye of the hurricane, do you see that second little spin? Looks to me like we have a second little vortex (ph) in here and that happens sometimes with systems. The other thing that I want to point out here, take a look at what's going on right here. We got some dry air which has been in trading into the system, and so we also got a little bit of wind shear with it and that's why we've gone down to a 3 instead of a 4.

We could see some additional weakening but very little is expected. So, while those things are working against the hurricane, we got very good what we call outflow. So, in the upper levels here, the air is just flowing out of the storm. It's very light in that area. And then the other thing, the water temperatures are crazy warm. We're talking upper 80s. And so, those are all things that can intensify a hurricane.

So, overall, we think we're going to balance out and stay kind of status quo when it comes to intensity with this storm. All right. Let's go ahead and show you the track and talk a little bit about that and what we can expect in the next 24 to 48 hours. We got hurricane watches which are in effect from surf city and extending up to the Parramore Island. That means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours or less. Likely going to be upgraded to warnings, we think, later on tonight.

Here's that track and this will show you this is 2:00 a.m. Friday. You can see just off the cape as a category 3 storm. And look, here's that cone of uncertainty. And look at all of the people that that includes. That includes all the way up towards Atlantic City, New York, into Boston. We think it'll get closest here to Nantucket as a strong hurricane as we head into Friday and Saturday morning.

Any way you slice this, T.J., this is going to be impacting the coast in particular. Millions of people trying to head to the beach this weekend, and unfortunately, it's going to be a weekend for the cool as opposed to the ocean. Look at that nice picture.

HOLMES: It is. It is now.

JERAS: don't be fooled.

HOLMES: It is now. Jacqui, we appreciate you. You'll be here keeping an eye on things. Rob Marciano doing the same as well. He is out in Virginia Beach. We appreciate you. Thank you so much.

Coming up, new round of Middle East peace talks is coming up today. Getting under way this morning, and it will do so under the cloud of new violence. Palestinian officials are stemming drive-by attack near the West Bank town of Hebron. Four Israelis were killed, including a pregnant woman. The Israel said it's searching for the killers, but Palestinian security officials say suspects are already in custody. Gave no other details (INAUDIBLE) in Palestinian territory were Jewish settlers have moved in.

Here's now a look at the key players in the Mideast peace talks which gets under way next hour. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, will be joined by his counterpart, Palestinian authority president, Mahmoud Abbas. Hamas is just one Palestinian refusing to take part in any meetings.

Representing the U.S. to the table, President Obama, also former U.S. Senator George Mitchell who serves as the envoy for President Obama, also, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton taking part. Other major players will include Jordan's king Abdullah II and also the Egyptian president, Hosni Mubarak, also the former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, who now serves as key envoy in the peace process.

Also, coming your way, the powder keg of the Middle East. We're going to show you the challenges of the peace process by reminding you just how volatile that region is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN ROBERTS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It would appear that in this conflict, neither side will be able to claim victory in the classic sense of military versus military, state versus state. The overarching question in the Middle East, can there ever be peace?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: That is our John Roberts there. And he will share his experiences and insights in covering war in the region. That's coming your way right after the break. Stay here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: In recent years, one of the most bloody conflicts in the region is the 2006 fighting along the Israel/Lebanon border. The war lasted just over a month, but the toll was large. Some 1300 people were killed. More than a million people were chased from their homes. And our John Roberts was embedded with Israeli troops as part of CNN's award winning coverage.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: We're pulling back to Israel now after two days in the field. And after spending 48 hours with this unit, we get a greater appreciation for just how difficult this battle really is. It would appear that in this conflict, neither side will be able to claim victory in the classic sense of military versus military, state versus state. The overarching question in the Middle East, can there ever be a peace?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: John, this conflict shows just what a powder keg the region is. And we all tend to wonder if these negotiations will ever make a difference like the ones happening this week.

ROBERTS: Yes. Certainly, the idea that the Palestinian president is going to sit down one-on-one and potentially repeatedly with the Israeli prime minister could be seen as a very positive sign. But even if they could work something out, Kyra, there's the question of what do you do about Hamas and the Gaza strip? What do you do about Syria? What do you do about Hezbollah in Lebanon?

There are so many players in the Middle East that it's difficult to see that any one road will bear fruit. You got to get everybody -- everybody sort of on the same page at the same time. PHILLIPS: And it's interesting, you witnessed talks before from your perch at the White House. And you also were the first western reporter to embed with Israeli troops during that war. Let's take a look a little bit of that and then I want to follow up with a question.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: We've been walking for a couple of miles now. We're going to stop to drink a little bit of water. It has been hard. Up one hill, down another. Very, very dusty, but it's an amazingly clear night here in South Lebanon. Moon was up little while ago. Now, the moon is down. It's much darker than it was before, but it's just a sky full of stars, somewhat at odds with the action on the ground this peaceful night.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Now one thing that I noticed, John, you weren't in tanks. There were no APCs. Everything was on foot.

ROBERTS: When they tell you that you're embedding with the Israeli infantry, they really mean infantry. We walked about ten miles into Lebanon on that hot night. Up and down tank roads that were carved into the Lebanese hillside, very, very soft dirt.

It was one of the most difficult things that I've -- I've ever done just physically carrying all of that gear and then you are under the constant threat of attack as well.

But it was -- it was amazing to be able to see that operation from the inside and to be one of the first people to ever embed with Israeli military. That -- that was a really interesting opportunity for a journalist to be able to see it from -- from that close up and from that side.

PHILLIPS: And John, I remember during this war, it's when you first came to CNN and you were doing all these live shots and one of the most memorable moments was when you talked about these Katusha (ph) rockets that were constantly coming at you guys.

As a matter of fact, I remember there's one moment when you guys had to dash for a shelter. Let's take a look. And I want to ask you about this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: We were just leaving here at Shimoto (ph) when the area siren went off again. So we thought that it would be best to take cover. In this area, so many rockets have come in that it's just not worth taking a chance. They can land literally anywhere.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Ok, so we see you during the war like this and these intense moments and once again, we ask the question, will talks work? Will -- will negotiations actually make an impact this time? Or will you be covering another war in the next year?

ROBERTS: You know, it is impossible to know Kyra, because even if the talks between the Palestinian president and the Israeli Prime Minister bear fruit, what do you do about Nasrallah (ph) and Hezbollah north of the border in Lebanon? Nasrallah bragged last year that he has some 30,000 rockets that can be used against Israel in a war. Israel recently upped that number to say no, it's probably more like 40,000.

And a Kuwaiti newspaper recently ran an article suggesting that the Israeli Defense Forces were planning an attack in southern Lebanon to hit some of those depots where Hezbollah has stored some of those missiles and other weapons.

So these lingering tensions and all of the armaments, all of the weapons in the area, it really makes you wonder if there ever will be peace in the Middle East because so many players have so much motivated self-interest in keeping tensions high there that they may not want to put those weapons down.

PHILLIPS: Well, we'll be following the outcome of those talks that's for sure. John Roberts thanks so much.

ROBERTS: You bet.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

T.J. HOLMES, CN ANCHOR: All right, we'll turn back to the war in Iraq now. It's been going on so long now, that for many Iraqi children it's all that they have known in their lives. Just ahead, they tell their stories of growing up amid the bloodshed and heartbreak.

Stay here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: As always, a busy day here in the CNN NEWSROOM. Checking in with our team of reporters that's out there to see what they're working on.

And we begin with our meteorologist Rob Marciano in Virginia Beach. Hello again, Rob.

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Hi T.J., hurricane watches posted for the East Coast through Virginia and North Carolina. Some evacuation is under way as Hurricane Earl now a Category 3 storm takes aim at the southeast. I'll have a live report from Virginia Beach at the top of the hour.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: I'm Suzanne Malveaux at the White House. President Obama is trying to jump start the Middle East peace process. In those talks he's going to have one-on- one meetings with the leaders of Israel, the Palestinian authority, Jordan as well as Egypt.

The big question, whether or not the President can succeed where so many previously failed. President Obama is at least going to give it a shot. I'll have more at the top of the hour.

HOLMES: Rob, Suzanne, we appreciate you both. See you both here shortly.

Also ahead, veterans returning home from Iraq could face a hostile job market. Our Tony Harris will breakdown the unemployment numbers among that. And he'll have some tips on where they can go for help finding a job.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HOLMES: Well, it is an historic milestone, but, still by no means does it mean an end to the violence in Iraq. The U.S. troops marking the formal end of the combat mission but unfortunately we are still bringing you reports on bombings and deaths of U.S. service members as well as Iraqi civilians.

All this week here on CNN we are reflecting on the last seven years and what withdrawing troops means to both U.S. and Iraq. But the end of the U.S. combat mission comes after seven years of bloodshed and heartbreak. And for many of Iraq's children it's all they have ever known -- war.

CNN's Arwa Damon in Baghdad for us and has their story in their own words.

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ARWA DAMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: This is one of Baghdad's more popular ice cream parlors and we are here to speak with children. A child psychologist recently told us that he believed the majority of Iraq's children are suffering from some sort of trauma as a result of this war.

Abdul Rahman (ph) and Rahmi (ph) are 11-year-old cousins. They are outgoing and love to talk. Abdul Rahman wants to be a doctor. Rahmi doesn't know, but they have nightmares of war. It's the first memory they have.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

DAMON: Now that the boys are on summer vacation, they say they miss school. At least it provided them with an alternate reality.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

DAMON: Their familiarity with violence is troubling.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE)

DAMON: Kids' conversations mimic those of adults, their childhood clouded with talk of assassinations, bombings and violence. Ten-year- old (INAUDIBLE) first memory is also of war. UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE): My mother was telling me not to go out because of bombs. I would go to my grandmother's house and I would hear the bombs.

DAMON: There are few centers to go to for psychiatric help. (INAUDIBLE) says she's still scared even as we sit here but at least the nightmares stopped.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE (SPEAKING IN FOREIGN LANGUAGE): My uncle game me a small Koran and told me when I want to sleep to put it under my head and sleep. So after I started putting it under the pillow, I stopped remembering scary things.

DAMON: Dreams here are rarely sweet, and sleep offers little escape.

Arwa Damon, CNN, Baghdad.

(END VIDEOTAPE)