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Countdown to Election Day; Taxes and Spending on the Ballot; Tropical Storm Thomas Could Hit Haiti; Arizona's Immigration Law Goes to Appeals Court Today

Aired November 01, 2010 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KYRA PHILLIPS, CNN ANCHOR: Ten a.m., top of the hour. 7:00 a.m. out West. Good morning, everyone. I'm Kyra Phillips. Here are the stories we're talking about right now. You know about those explosives found on two cargo planes. Well, now we're hearing that one of those devices may have also been on a passenger plane.

Remember, a judge overturning key parts of Arizona's immigration law this summer? Well, today's the day, lawyers will take arguments to the appeals court.

And tropical storm Tomas could re-strengthen into a hurricane. Forecasters say it could hit a very vulnerable Haiti.

Just one day until the biggest midterm election in years. Most experts predict the Republicans will take control of the House, but the Senate is still in play. So besides watching the races, we'll be looking ahead to happens if the GOP takes the Senate or the Democrats maintain the majority.

Now, the Republicans need 39 seats to take the House. GOP chair Michael Steele believes that they have it, but he wouldn't go out on a limb just yet to say that they have the 10 Senate seats to put them over the top there. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL STEELE, GOP CHAIRMAN: The Senate, again, has always been a tougher road for us. Simply by virtue of the numbers that we have in play there and the number of seats we have up versus the Democrats, but I still feel that, you know, we're looking at least a seven or eight-seat night. Again, there could be some surprises, particularly as you head further west, but we'll see.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Well, we asked voters who they thought will control Congress. Here's what they told our CNN opinion research poll. 51 percent said Republicans, 36 percent said Democrats. So we ask if the GOP wins control of Congress, what would the future of the country be? Only about a third of our respondents said better off.

Now the best political team on television is covering the races that will determine that all important balance of power. We want to check in with three of our correspondents. First, Drew Griffin in Alaska.

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: There is a real Republican drama playing out in this state now between the two would-be Republicans who are leading in this Senate race, and that is Joe Miller, the Tea Party candidate who is on the ballot, and Lisa Murkowski, the sitting Republican senator from Alaska who is staging this massive write-in campaign trying to get back, basically, into this Senate race, and she seems to be doing just that, but, interestingly enough, I caught up with Lisa Murkowski, and she said when she gets back to Washington -- when she gets back to Washington - that she is not going to be beholdened to any Republican Party.

Now that is coming at the same time that Joe Miller insists he is going to pull this out, despite a bunch of missteps late in this campaign. I did run into him as well. He seemed to be confident but, again, he's got the Republican Party backing him, putting on a lot of ads and trying to attack Lisa Murkowski in this race.

PHILLIPS: And next, Dana Bash in New York.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Congressman John Hall knows all about election year waves. Four years ago, he rode one into office unseating a Republican in this suburban New York district. Now he's fighting a GOP tide.

REP. JOHN HALL (D), NEW YORK: People are not happy because we're not out of the recession yet, and my answer to that is that we shouldn't give the keys to the car back to the people who drove us into the ditch.

BASH: Hall is neck and neck with a political novice, an ophthalmologist who preaches Republican doctrine.

NAN HEYWORTH (R), NEW YORK CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: We are becoming, we, as citizens are becoming the servants of our government. They are taking far too much.

BASH: This Westchester congressional district is one of half a dozen Democratic House seats in New York Republicans are trying to snatch. A huge number in one state, and crucial to a GOP House takeover.

(on camera): Can the Republicans win the majority without winning these six seats?

JOHN MCLAUGHLIN, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: I think it's possible. But this makes it extremely probable. (END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: And finally, our Jessica Yellin, in Las Vegas.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): In one of the nation's most closely watched Senate races, a new Republican group is conducting and experiment.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I just want to remind you about November 2nd and also check and see if Sharron Angle can count on your vote.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She already got it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Wonderful.

YELLIN: CNN got an exclusive look at this test by American Crossroads, the Republican third party organization advised by Karl Rove. They've armed volunteers in Nevada with iPads preloaded with data about voters and lists of questions.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: And you can just pull up people and ask them questions, which is really nice.

YELLIN (on camera): It is all fed back?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It all gets fed back.

YELLIN: Real time?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Real time.

YELLIN (voice-over): The goal, to gather as much information as possible about these voters and what issues interest them. To turn them out on election day. If the software works, they say they'll deploy it nationwide. Traditional get out the vote operations are also on overdrive across the state because the race for Senate majority leader Harry Reid's seat is so tight.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We have the best get out the vote operation probably in the history of the country except for the presidential election.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Do you need any help getting to the polls?

YELLIN: On Sunday morning, phone banks were full with volunteers trying to find voters who haven't cast early ballots and pressing them to go to the polls on Tuesday.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS: Join the best political team on television as the final numbers come in, our "Election Night in America" coverage starts 7:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night.

Now let's get you up to speed on what's going on between the U.S. and Yemen this morning. Six TSA investigators headed there to check how mail bombs slipped past airline security and ended up on cargo planes in the United Arab Emirates and the U.K.. Those bombs might have been on passenger planes, too. They were addressed to synagogues in Chicago. Investigators believe that the man who designed Al Qaeda's underwear bomb last year could be behind this plot.

Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri is a Saudi native believed to be in Yemen. He is an expert with explosives and poisons and is one of the most wanted men in Saudi Arabia. Security officials in Yemen say every piece of cargo and luggage will go through extensive searches from now on. But that country is struggling with terror. And aide to the prime minister says his country needs a lot of help to fight Al Qaeda. Let's bring in our Paul Cruickshank. He's a CNN terror analyst.

Now, Paul, they say they need a lot of help, but the problem is at the same time, the U.S. refuses to get real aggressive particularly with military action. Does that need to change?

PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, one of the things they are looking at right now in Washington, D.C., is expanding drone strikes in Yemen. The same sort of strategy that they have been doing in the tribal areas of Pakistan to go after these key leaders, after the bomb makers. Now the Yemeni government has been resisting this - they feel that the local tribes, there might be a backlash there because of this, (INAUDIBLE) anti-American, and also some of the allies of the president there in Yemen are very anti-American and sympathetic to the jihadists. There is some resistance from the Yemeni government in terms of expanding drone strikes there in that country. Kyra.

PHILLIPS: So Paul, at what point do you just say, OK, there's the resistance, talks, negotiating, trying to build a relationship here, U.S. and Yemen, just isn't going to work. We are talking about guys that are getting closer and closer to hurting us. So at what point do we just move forward as a military and strike more aggressively?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, if there is a successful attack, there will be very great pressure to do exactly that sort of thing, to expand drone strikes over there, but it's a very careful balancing act obviously. They don't want to do things that will lead to more recruitment and more terrorists out there. They are trying to persuade the Yemeni government to really focus in on this threat at the moment and try to build up (INAUDIBLE).

It's a very poor country and they have limited capabilities of going after the terrorists. They don't control the whole country. There are parts of Yemen which are really strongholds now for Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda are plotting attacks against the United States from these areas as we are seeing playing out right at the moment, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: So Paul, why not increase those drone attacks or other types of attacks against those strongholds that the U.S. military is very much aware of?

CRUICKSHANK: Well, it's the Yemeni government resistance, as I was saying, to that, the fear that this may create a backlash that some of these tribes which control large swaths of the country may actually then join forces with Al Qaeda, so you have a worse problem than you started with and a worse threat to western security than when you started.

There are no easy options in Yemen unfortunately, but they are now considering potentially increasing drone strikes, bringing them more under the control of the CIA. That is one option on the table at the moment, Kyra, we understand.

PHILLIPS: Got it. Paul Cruickshank, thank you so much.

All right. Let's talk about weather. Rob Marciano is keeping an eye on tropical Tomas, and it could become a hurricane again, right?

ROB MARCIANO, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes. That's what we're thinking at his point but there has been a lot of changes just in the last few hours. Take a look at the satellite picture. It was a hurricane. It hit the Winward Islands earlier this weekend and had winds of over 90 miles an hour and now it has got tropical storm force winds of over 50 miles an hour.

Look at how this thing is diving down to the south. So with any sort of luck, it slams into Venezuela and we're done with this. But that is not forecast at least right now. I think this will be adjusted here in the next hour as we get our next update from the National Hurricane Center.

But, you know, the forecast (INAUDIBLE) turn towards the Hispaniola later in the week. Obviously, this is a very much influx. We got a wide margin of error here. We'll continue to monitor Tomas as we go through time.

Meanwhile, a pretty decent storm that's going to be driving south to Texas. It doesn't look like much right now but it will tap into Gulf of Mexico moisture and you will see a fair amount of thunder and lightning and heavy rain across southeast Texas and Louisiana. And this will hang around and slowly make its way towards the rest of the southeast, which is actually be kind of gift because we're in a severe drought spot.

77 in Dallas. It will be 51, kind of chilly in the northeast after a chilly Halloween. Temperatures tomorrow morning will once again be close to freezing. It's November 1st. The time of year, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: Yes and I stand corrected, Tomas.

MARCIANO: We're very sophisticated. We try to be international here.

PHILLIPS: Yes exactly. (INAUDIBLE) All right. Tomas. I got it. Thank you very much, Rob.

All right. Mel Gibson and his ex, Oksana may face off for the first time since their split. The Oscar winner is schedule to dish on what led to their breakup during this deposition today. That's next on entertainment report.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(MUSIC PLAYING) PHILLIPS: Mel Gibson and his ex and their bitter court battle creating a whole lot of buzz as is Courtney Cox and "The Walking Dead." Katie Caperton, entertainment editor for CNN.com here with all the scoop. So, Mel can't seem to stay out of the news, can he?

KATIE CAPERTON, ENTERTAINMENT EDITOR, CNN.COM: Mel, Mel, Mel. Well, it's not on tape this time.

PHILLIPS: No screaming or yelling or abusive language?

CAPERTON: Not yet.

PHILLIPS: Well, who knows what can happen in court, right.

CAPERTON: Exactly. He's expected to give a deposition today, according to TMZ. They're saying that he is going to be sitting face to face for the first time with Oksana Grigorieva, his ex. It's the first time they have sat down and may have talked about their rather interesting split.

PHILLIPS: You think?

CAPERTON: There are on-line reports that - yes, a little interesting. Radaronline reports that she gave her on deposition, her fourth, in fact, last Friday and it went well. So she's expected to be there, he's going to be there. It's a closed proceeding. Only time will tell to see what happens with this one.

PHILLIPS: You'll bring us the scoop.

CAPERTON: I will tell you.

PHILLIPS: Courtney Cox, David Arquette. So are they together or not? What is going on with these two?

CAPERTON: Another interesting split. Number two for today.

PHILLIPS: So much pressure on these Hollywood couples.

CAPERTON: Yes. So they announced recently that they have split for sometime and she gave an interview to TV Week saying, "Hey, you know, it's not like we're getting divorced. What's all the buzz and the drama about? It's not like we're getting divorced. We're really just separated and you know, you never know what's going to happen with this one, and she actually had some kind words for his recent interview with Howard Stern. He called into the Howard Stern show right after they split up and gave some intimate details of their relationship. We'll keep it at that. She said, you know, he's an entertainer and he's a bit of a kook. So people like carrying swords.

PHILLIPS: Who is a kook, her husband or Howard Stern?

CAPERTON: Her ex-husband.

PHILLIPS: The two of them go well together. CAPERTON: She said, she's a Howard Stern fan and she thought, her husband is an entertainer. So I think most women would be so kind to their husband calling into the Howard Stern show and talk about their relationship.

PHILLIPS: That wouldn't make me feel so good.

CAPERTON: No, no, no.

PHILLIPS: What's the fixation with zombies? Now there's this new show "Walking Dead"? All the buzz.

CAPERTON: Yes, zombies are the new vampires. It's not about vampires until the next "Twilight" comes out. For the time being, our obsession with the undead still rages on. There's a new it show that premiered last night on AMC. It's the network that brought you "Mad Men" and "Breaking Bad" has all of the Emmy darling shows. So "Walking Dead" is just the most buzzed about show that's on air right now. IT debuted last night on Halloween, very appropriate. And everybody's talking about it. Did you see it?

PHILLIPS: No.

CAPERTON: Are you screamish?

PHILLIPS: Yes, I am.

CAPERTON: Then don't watch it.

PHILLIPS: (INAUDIBLE) these zombies and the vampire. I can't do horror flicks in any way.

CAPERTON: If you haven't seen the show yet, if you watch it within the first 10 minutes something happens, and you will know whether or not you can stomach this series. It's great but I had to watch it sort of with one eye opened. So it's a little much, but, again, like a lot of the AMC shows, it's well written, it's really great. And everybody's talking - it's your new Sunday might sort of must-see.

PHILLIPS: OK. Katie, thank you so much.

CAPERTON: Thank you.

PHILLIPS: All right. Well, six years ago, New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey resigned in scandal. Well, today he's back and his old secret is actually his new cause, Justice for the Gay Community. You're going to hear from him.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: (INAUDIBLE) happening across the country. Not exactly your typical wedding. Get a white wedding dress. Carrie Carnes and her husband actually ditch the traditional getups. Black capes and orange accents, the two (INAUDIBLE) got married during the ultimate Halloween tailgate just before the team kicked off against the Bills. Friday night-lights in Texas burned well past the usual game time. These two high school teams may have set a national record, playing a staggering 12 overtimes. Yes, 12 overtimes. More than 5 1/2 hours. Jacksonville beat Nacogdoches, by the way, by a field goal.

And batter up, in Arlington, it was a presidential doubleheader. Game four of the World Series. Father and son team, George Bush and George W.. The younger Bush threw a high pitch to Rangers president and Hall of Famer Nolan Ryan. This is the first time two former presidents attended a World Series game together.

Our talker today was a huge talker back in 2004. Governor Jim McGreevey of New Jersey, a married father admitted that he was gay and that he had an affair with a man. He left his office a few months later. Today, McGreevey's back in the public eye, tackling what he sees as religion-based bigotry against the LGBT community and calling out candidates he thinks use their religious belief as an excuse to discriminate.

I had a chance to ask him earlier about "don't ask, don't tell" and the White

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIM MCGREEVEY, FMR. NEW JERSEY GOVERNOR: My frustration is that when you look at other nations, whether it's Israel, all throughout Europe, we have all gotten past this question of "don't ask, don't tell." You know, there's something basically disingenuous about saying to a member of the armed forces, you know, where America, from the time we tell our children the importance of telling the truth, we're telling our service people, you know, you can be gay, but you have to be closeted, which, to me, cuts against a core American value.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Well, McGreevey is now a board member of the group, "Faith in America."

So, what are you doing to prepare for the midterm elections? Brush up on your candidates, the issues, maybe smoke a joint? Well, no need to ask "Hangover" star Zach Galifianakis about his view on California's Prop 19 that would legalize marijuana. On Friday's "Real Time with Bill Maher," Zach just reached into this pocket and lit up, and as he offers to this next panelist, she actually declines but confirmed that his dobby is the real thing. Well, that got us wondering, can you really do this on TV and will it have an impact on Prop 19? Here's what viewers had to say.

Taylor said "I watched and was surprised but cheered Zach's act of defiance. The simple fact is many professional, responsible people smoke pot but fear prosecution if they speak out." This from Southgate Joe. "The network that displayed this needs to be disciplined as well as the individual who declined to act like a child. Until this is deemed legal, it is still a violation of the law in most states." Noah said, "how do you know that Zach doesn't have a prescription from a doctor?" Good point. Remember, we want to hear from you. Just log into cnn.com/kyra and share your comments. By the way, Bill Maher and HBO could face being sued.

Well, the Tea Party phenomenon has been building since 2008. Could the momentum carry candidates to Capitol Hill? Our Shannon Travis is all over this. He joins us live.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: All right. Stock market opening bell, just rang about an hour ago. Let's check at those numbers real quickly. It looks like Dow industrials up about 105 points right now. The economy is issue number one in tomorrow's election too but it's not just playing out in individual races, right, Stephanie Elam?

STEPHANIE ELAM, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: That is true, Kyra. You know, you got some hefty ballot issues on a lot of people's mind. You got abortion, you got immigration, gay rights but a lot of those are taking back seats to initiatives that directly affect Americans' wallet. And this year, there are nearly 100 statewide ballot questions on taxing and spending plus more than 450 local tax questions in 33 states. So it's a big deal.

Let's take a look at Colorado, for example here, three measures would slash property taxes, prohibit the state from borrowing and cut fees on everything from car registration to telephones. Opponents say these cuts are just too extreme but the Colorado Fiscal Policy Institute says if the measures were fully implemented today they would cut the state's general fund in half, slashing revenue by $3.4 billion and supporters say it's necessary because belt tightening needs to occur right now and that will ultimately expand Colorado's economy and create jobs. So far the polls in the state are running against the measures.

Now, Massachusetts is also considering hefty tax cuts. Voters there will decide whether to slash the sales tax to three percent from 6.25 percent. That would cut state revenues by $2.5 billion a year and supporters say it would save the average family 900 bucks a year. Now polls in Massachusetts show voters are pretty evenly divided on this one. So again, another one we are watching. Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right. So we know that state budgets have been badly hit by the recession. Any states looking to make up the gap by raising taxes?

ELAM: Yes. You have to head out to the west coast for this one, Kyra. Washington state is one of only seven states with no personal income tax. It must be nice but that could be about to change, at least for some folks who are pulling in some big cash out there. The state's first-ever income tax is on the ballot. It would be five percent on individuals making more than $200,000 and nine percent on those making more than $500,000. The measure would raise more than $11 billion over the next five years to make it more palatable to voters out there. I guess to some voters, they also went ahead to cut property and business taxes, and a recent poll found that 51 percent of voters are opposed. So, again, Kyra, it will be another close one, and a lot of people will be up very late watching what's happening out there in Washington state. We will be watching all of the states to see what happens, and we'll talk about them later on this week, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: We will be up late for a number of days. Thanks, Steph.

ELAM: Yes, right? Exactly.

(LAUGHTER)

PHILLIPS: Here's some other stories we're talking about right now.

You know about the explosives found on those two cargo planes. We're now hearing that one of the devices may have also been on a passenger plane.

Eight years after she disappeared, Elizabeth Smart's alleged kidnapper stands trial starting today. Smart, her mother and younger sister expected to testify.

Alcohol ranks as the most harmful drug overall, actually beating out crack and heroin, according to a new British study. Experts say it's almost three times as harmful as cocaine and tobacco. Elizabeth Cohen joins me in just about 10 minutes to talk more about it.

Well, he chased players, knocked on the today's and he even stopped elevators. Our CNN politcal producer, Shannon Travis, went to extremes to show all of us the impact of the Tea Party craze.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SHANNON TRAVIS, CNN POLITICAL PRODUCER: Governor, what if the Tea Party movement winds up splitting the Republican party in two?

SARAH PALIN, (R) FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: You know, I don't think it will, because I think more of the machine within the GOP is going to understand that the "we the people" message is rising and resonating throughout with independents, with hardcore conservatives, with moderates, because it's just so full of commonsense and time- tested truths that could put the economy on the right track, that heaven forbid that the GOP machine strays from this message. If so, GOP is through.

SEN. BOB BENNETT (R), UTAH: There are people in the Tea Party movement who simply say the slogans and don't want to pay attention to government.

TRAVIS: So, what do you think about their impact on the Republican party in general?

BENNETT: We'll have to wait and see. They've had an impact clearly on the primaries.

TRAVIS: What do you think about this idea that there's no room for moderate Republicans in the Republican party?

SEN. ARLEN SPECTER (D), PENNSYLVANIA: I think it is really a problem for democracy when the fringes of the parties gain control.

TRAVIS: So it is your sense that the Tea Party movement is the extreme of the Republican party?

SPECTER: I don't think there's any doubt that the Tea Party is going very, very far to the right.

TRAVIS: And last question --

SPECTER: I have to leave.

TRAVIS: OK. Thanks, Senator.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

PHILLIPS; Well, the Tea Party campaigns and their surprise candidates flooded and many times won the primaries. So, today, a day before one of the most talked-about midterm elections, we're asking Shannon what could this big anti-big government party mean for the GOP? He actually traveled the country, followed the rallies and its cause and as you saw, chased down every player he could. His documentary has been airing all weekend. Shannon, you did such an awesome job.

TRAVIS: I seemed like such a stalker in some of those clips.

PHILLIPS: Exactly. Boy, and we didn't show you banging on the door at Christine O'Donnell's campaign headquarters, and the guy telling you to leave.

But no, really -- you really went after it. You gave us a great inside look, Shannon. Terrific work. So, let's talk about the campaign managers and sources that you have been on the phone with, even up until today. What are they doing in these final hours?

TRAVIS: The reason why I went after a lot of those lawmakers and making the phone calls this morning is because these are critical questions. As you just said, I have been on the phone with some of the campaigns to say, hey, you have a few hours left to actually try and win these races in a lot of these Tea Party-backed candidates. And their message is they're trying to seal the deal.

I spoke with the campaign for Sharron Angle, and they're saying she's going to shake as many hands as possible. She's going to be in Reno today and shake as many hands as possible. But they're really going to focus on the undecideds, the people who are yet - who have yet to decide between her and Harry Reid.

The same with Rand Paul. His campaign tells me that they're making eight campaign stops throughout Kentucky, so they're blazing across the state to try to seal the deal there. Again, a tight race with Jack Conway. So, they are trying to get their message out, get voters to the polls and seal the deal.

PHILLIPS: Got it. All right, and something that you pointed out to me this morning -- you made a great point this morning that no one has put their neck out there supporting the Tea Party Express like Sarah Palin. So --

TRAVIS: That's right.

PHILLIPS: If Tea Party candidates bomb, what does that tell us about Sarah Palin's power? And, Shannon, if they win, is that telling us about some sort of momentum that she could actually, maybe, have a chance at being our next president?

TRAVIS: I mean, look at it this way. It's a bit of a gamble, almost a political experiment. Can you take what they call constitutional conservatives, very hard-line Republicans, and have them win in a general election? We've seen them have success in primaries, but can they win in a general election?

Sarah Palin says, yes. She put it all on the line: her popularity, he political capital. She put it all on the line, you heard her last week - or was it two weeks ago, calling establishment Republicans chickens, saying man up and support these Tea Party candidates.

So, it's a bit of a gamble. If they win, then she may be a bit of a queen maker. She may be the one saying, hey, I handpicked or endorsed a lot of these candidates, they won. So, that sets her up nicely. If they don't win, the other hand, Kyra, as you know, you could see the air come out of the Tea Party movement's balloon, but you could also see maybe Sarah Palin relegated to the sidelines. So, it's a bit of a gamble. We won't know until a few hours from now.

PHILLIPS: Yes, wow. So, Shannon, final question. After working on the documentary and spending so much time talking to all of the players. Do you think this party helps or hurts the GOP?

TRAVIS: Well, that's for Republicans to decide. There may be some navel gazing after tomorrow.

I put that question to a lot of the people on the dock. Steve Wokowski (ph), who's the spokesman for senator Lisa Murkowski. Some people say that it helps the GOP, that it helps them because they're fired up. They have the Republicans who are fired up going to the polls whereas maybe there might have been a lack of enthusiasm if it weren't for the Tea Party.

Others say, like you heard Senator Specter say, this is pulling the Republican party so far to the right that there's no way they will be able to come back from this. So, it depends on who is talking, who is answering that question. But we won't be able to gauge the true impact of what it does to the Republican party probably until beyond this election.

PHILLIPS: Shannon Travis, great work. Really enjoyed watching the doc. TRAVIS: Appreciate it, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: You bet.

It beats out crack, heroin, even ecstasy. And it's legal. A study by a British medical journal names the most harmful drug, and you have probably tried it at least once.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Sounds counterintuitive with Mexico's drug wars claiming thousands of lives every year, but a new British study vilifies alcohol as the most harmful drug. Actually beating out substances like cocaine, even heroin. Senior medical correspondent Elizabeth Cohen joins us for today's "Daily Dose."

Well, I guess in some ways it's surprising, and in some ways it isn't. There's been all kind of debate about what is more dangerous.

ELIZABETH COHEN, CNN SENIOR MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT: Right, exactly. When you look at -- let's say you looked in this country, and all of the damage that was done by alcohol versus harmful drugs. What you would find is that alcohol actually - what you might find is that alcohol causes more problems because more people use alcohol.

So, when you look at the damage that's done to the liver, the damage that's done to other parts of your body. When you look at car crashes. When you look at relationships that are ruined. Alcohol is responsible for more of that than any given drug. More than heroin, more than crack, more than methamphetamines, more than or anything you can think of.

And so, what they found here is that that's true in England. The doctors I spoke to in this country said they think it would be true also in this country, simply because more people use alcohol, and a lot of people don't realize the damage it can cause.

PHILLIPS: If you are given the choice, drink a glass of wine or do heroin, I mean, come on, you don't say do heroin.

COHEN: Right. I asked an addiction specialist that, and I said if I have a syringe of heroin in front of me and a glass of wine in front of me, are you telling me I should do that heroin? He said, no. That's not what I'm saying.

What he's saying that in a group, in a community, when you look at a mass of people, more damage is done from alcohol. He said, yes, something like heroin is more immediately addictive and is more immediately harmful, but, still, people sometimes underestimate. They see the illegal substance, the heroin, and they think that's going to be absolutely sort of worse in the big picture whereas alcohol can really have some terrible effects, especially to people who are genetically predisposed to becoming addictive.

PHILLIPS: What's our main takeaway from this study? COHEN: The main takeaway, according to the experts that I talked to, was that people need to recognize the damage that alcohol can do. They said, are there people that can have a glass of wine for dinner every night? Of course there are, and they can do it without becoming addicted and it doesn't affect their life and they function perfectly fine.

But there are many people for whom a little bit of alcohol leads them down a terrible pathway. They get into car accidents, they can ruin their relationships, they can ruin their professional life. They can ruin their liver, their heart, their everything. And people don't see that because when you can buy something at the supermarket, it must be okay, right? Well, for a lot of people it's not okay.

PHILLIPS: Got it. All right, Elizabeth, thanks.

Many Republicans confident while many Democrats are holding their breath. The latest polls in the battle for Congress are out. We're going to tell you what mood of America is on this election eve.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SETH MEYERS, SNL CAST MEMBER: Here to comment, political strategist Mr. James Carville.

(APPLAUSE)

BILL HADER, SNL CAST MEMBER (acting as James Carville): Hello there!

MEYERS: So you're not threatened to see Tea Party members take office?

HADER: No, let 'em. I mean, the Tea Party are like fun, kooky parents your friend had when you were kids. You know, they let them stay up all night and watch Cinemax. And then one night, you sleep over there and they don't have any food. There's just expired peanut butter. They fight and listen to weird records, and their dog's, like, 30 years old and he's just staring at you. And you like, man, this is kind of creepy. I kind of want to go home, you know?

All I'm saying is, if you elect these Tea Party kook-a-looks, you are going to be calling Harry Reid in two months saying, Dad, can you come pick me up?

(LAUGHTER)

MEYERS: James Carville, everybody!

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Well, just one more day for voters to make up their minds in a make-or-break midterm election. From the look of our CNN polls, well, a lot of people have made up their minds and they're talking about it.

CNN deputy political director Paul Steinhauser at the CNN Election Center in New York. So, tell us about the polls, Paul.

PAUL STEINHAUER, CNN DEPUTY POLITICAL DIRECTOR: You know, Kyra, you always put the funny stuff before me, and I'm just not that funny, so it's always a hard act to follow.

PHILLIPS: If people knew you, they would know how funny you are.

STEINHAUSER: Let's keep that quiet.

Let's talk about the mood of the country right now. This is a brand-new CNN/ Opinion Research Corporation national poll number we just put out a few hours ago. And troubling. Only 1 in 4 say things are going well in the country today. Three out of 4, that's 75 percent of the people we questioned across the country, say things are going poorly right now. And if you compare that to 1994, when the Republicans won back Congress and in 2006 when the Democrats won back Congress, that's a lot more people saying things are going poorly in the country right.

What about specifically the battle for Congress? Check this out. It's on the CNN Ticker as well. It's our generic ballot, the standard question we and other polling organizations ask, would you vote for the generic Democrat or Republican in your congressional district?

Look at that. The Republican with a 10-point advantage, 52 percent to 42 percent. That's comparable to what the Democrats had four years ago when they won Congress and comparable what the Republicans had back in '94 when they stormed back into control of Congress.

And Kyra, let's do one more thing. Let's break down that number by independents. Remember, in 2006 and '08, independents went big- time for the Democrats. But look at this. Independents right now. Our polls suggest 55 percent say they would go for the generic Republicans in their congressional district. Thirty-two percent say they would vote for the generic Democrat. That's a troubling number. Big-time trouble for the Democrats, Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right. So, does this mean Americans love the Republicans?

STEINHAUSER: You know, no. And that's funny. You think those numbers are very pro-Republican, right? But no, look at this. We asked, do you have a favorable opinion of the Republican or Democratic party? Well, not so much. Forty-four percent say they have a favorable opinion of the Republican party. That's pretty much where the Democrats are. So, it's not like people are in love with the Republicans right now and hate the Democrats. So, that is the one number that gives the Democrats some hope right now going into tomorrow's midterm elections. Kyra.

PHILLIPS: All right. Thanks so much, Paul.

We're going to have your next political update in just about an hour. And a reminder, for all of the latest political news, you can always go to our Web site CNNpolitics.com.

PHILLIPS: Well, CNN's newest primetime program, "PARKER/SPITZER," of course, covering politics as well. New Mexico governor bill Richardson spoke to the hosts about what the president needs to do to communicate better.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL RICHARDSON (D), NEW MEXICO GOVERNOR: The White House has done a lot. They have done so much that they can't communicate everything. Financial regulation. They have restored our image internationally. We've got a strong foreign policy. We have health care reform. The stimulus package.

I'm a governor, Kathleen. That's helped us. That's helped us create jobs. That's helped us keep our budgets at bay in state capitals. And what I'm trying to convey is voters don't want to hear about all of the bills you passed. They want to hear what you are going to do for them about the economy, about jobs, about foreclosures, about helping families advance economically. That's what we have to concentrate on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Check out CNN's newest primetime program, "PARKER/SPITZER," every night 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

Join The Best Political Team on Television as the final numbers come in. Our Election Night in America coverage starts 7:00 p.m. Eastern tomorrow night.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: One military widow is turning every step, every mile to a memory. Selena Jimenez ran the Marine Corps Marathon for her husband. 26.2 miles in honor of him. Army Sergeant David Jimenez Almazan, 27-year-old combat medic, was killed by a roadside bomb in Iraq. That was four years ago, but his memory still very much alive.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SELENA JIMENEZ, WIDOW OF SGT. DVID JIMENEZ ALMAZAN: I have been running in his honor. Every mile is a memory, and he once said life was about the memories. So, every mile creates that mileage; a new memory every mile that we're able to share and experience with other runners.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Well, security was tight for Sunday's race after a series of shootings at several Marine Corps sites. But, the marathon did go off without a hitch. Now, every day at this time, we honor the men and women in uniform who have given their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan for us. We call it "Home and Away." Today, we are lifting up Sergeant Bradley Wayne Marshall from Little Rock, Arkansas. He was killed in Iraq in July 2007.

His mom, Fran Marshall, wrote into you us. She said, "Brad served in the Army in the 1990s, and when the war started, Brad said he couldn't stand by and watch his fellow soldiers give their lives and do nothing. So, at 35, he rejoined the military and became a mentor to the younger soldiers. Now, one of Brad's sons is fighting in Afghanistan, and the other getting a college education his dad earned for him." Fran says, "I want Brad to be remembered for his generosity with his time and helping others and being a good friend to so many."

Well, if you have a loved one you would like to honor, here's all you have to do. Go to CNN.com/homeandaway. Type in your service member's name in the upper right-hand search field, pull up the profile. Send us your thoughts, your pictures. We promise to keep their memory alive.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PHILLIPS: Mailboxes stuffed with campaign messages, phone calls, the accusations, the responses. One of the most-watched midterm election cycles comes to a head tomorrow. Here's a look at some of the comments, predictions, fears and fun on the campaign's last weekend.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. HALEY BARBOUR (R), MISSISSIPPI: I think Tuesday's election, like most midterm elections will be a referendum on Obama's policies. You can see the president is out campaigning like it's a referendum on his policies. The problem for him is a lot of Democrats are running from Barack Obama like a scalded dog.

TIM KAINE, DNC CHAIRMAN: Well, right now, they are saying they will get both, and we're saying we will hold onto both. And it's going to be a nail-biter, and I suspect there will be some real close races. But my belief now is we're going to hold the Senate, and I think if we just play our cards right over the next two days, we will are going to surprise folks and hold the House as well.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The only way to fight that kind of politics, the only way to match the millions of dollars of negative ads that have been pouring down using these phony front groups -- millions of dollars of ads, the only way to fight that is millions of voices.

SHARRON ANGLE (R), NEVADA SENATE CANDIDATE: We know there's going to be shock and awe in Washington, D.C.

(APPLAUSE)

ANGLE: And we're going to have a teachable moment. And the message that we want to send is -- in your lame duck session, we want you to do two things. Repeal Obama-care, and make the tax cuts permanent.

MARCO RUBIO (R), FLORIDA SENATE CANDIDATE: Republicans share some of these blame. Republicans had majorities in Washington. Republicans had majorities, and they failed to do what they need to do.

One of the most compelling speeches I ever heard on that topic was from Adam Putnam, who witnessed this. Who was there when this happened.

But we have never seen anything like the last 18 months. We have never seen anything like the last 18 months. And the reality of it is that where we stand in this election is the proverbial crossroads. But it's no different than the crossroads that all the Americans that came before us have stood at.

You see, every generation of American was asked to make the choice we have to make because our greatness has never been an accident. Our greatness has always been because the people that were here before us were willing to do whatever it took to ensure that the things that made America exceptional and unique remain that way.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is really about making a statement in -- by body count for me. I felt it important to be here, to show my son it's important to be here for something that's not evil, fearful, critical. Something that doesn't have to be - it could be for fun but still make a statement at the same time. And hat was an important point for me to show my son.

CARLY FIORINA (R), CALIFORNIA SENATE CANDIDATE: This campaign is about jobs and how jobs are created. This campaign is about holding Washington accountable for how they spend our money and the policies they put in place.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Let's just say I know-- I know very well who will have returned me to Washington, D.C. To the United States Senate, and it will be these people in this state and nobody else.

JON STEWART, HOST, "THE DAILY SHOW": Hey! Steve Colbert!

Woo! Woo!

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PHILLIPS: Tony says what is that? That's Evil Knievel! He's back!

TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Without the motorcycle. And the casts.

PHILLIPS: What the heck? Might as well come up from the mine. There you go.

HARRIS: That's right. Kyra, you have a great day. Ooh, let me get my mark here.

(LAUGHTER)