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GOP Looks for Landslide; Airplane Bomb Plot; #1 Issue: Economy
Aired November 01, 2010 - 13:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ALI VELSHI, CNN ANCHOR: Absolutely. Anything you can show that compares numbers and cross-tabulate, you know the stuff I that love, just taking data --
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
VELSHI: -- and parsing it different ways, this technology will help us. So, hopefully, we'll have some fun with it in the future. But we'll see a lot of it on Election Day.
Good to see you, Tony.
HARRIS: Have a great show, sir.
VELSHI: Thank you. You too, Tony Harris.
And I'm Ali Velshi, with you for the next couple of hours. Here's what I've got on the "Rundown."
Yemen is on the alert and on the lookout for terrorists at the airport after bombs were intercepted on flights headed to the United States. We'll find out what investigators did right and what could have gone terribly wrong.
As Americans get ready to head to the polls, Brazil takes the political spotlight, electing the first female president to lead Latin America's biggest nation.
And in Washington, a funny thing happened on the way to the election. Stewart and Colbert take the stage in D.C. to give voters a little break from the mudslinging and the attack ads.
But there is really a serious election going on. We've been counting down the days until the midterm elections. And now, we can count down the hours -- and from every indication, it's going to be a good day for the Republicans and a bad day for Democrats.
Look at these numbers from a new CNN/Opinion Research poll. People were asked whether they would vote for a Republican or a Democrat for Congress. They chose Republican by a 10-point margin. Now, 52 percent said Republican, 42 percent said Democrat.
Compare that with the results of exactly the same question asked on exactly the same day, two days before the 1994 election. In that poll, they also chose Republicans over Democrats by a seven-point margin. But that 7-point margin in 1994 resulted in the Republican revolution. The Republicans picked up 52 seats in the House and seven seats in the Senate, taking control of both chambers.
Thirty-seven incumbent Democrats lost their bids for reelection, including Representative Tom Foley, Speaker Tom Foley. Republican Newt Gingrich replaced Foley as speaker of the House. In the Senate, George Mitchell was replaced as majority leader by Republican Bob Dole.
1994 was the year George W. Bush was first elected the governor of Texas. It's also the year Sonny Bono became a Republican congressman.
Publicly at least, Democratic leaders insist it's not the same thing. No Republican revolution this year. But some Republicans predict the GOP will do even better than expected.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)
TIM KAINE, DEMOCRATIC PARTY CHAIRMAN: Well, right now, you know, they're saying they're going to get both, and we're saying we'll hold on to both and it's going to be a nail-biter. And I expect there's going to be some real close races. But my belief now is we're going to hold the Senate and I think if we just play our cards right in the next two days, we'll surprise folks and hold the House as well.
MICHAEL STEELE, REPUBLICAN PARTY CHAIRMAN: I think that the Republican leadership across the country is going to emerge in a lot of races that people don't expect right now. There are going to be a number of surprises in races that folks haven't paid attention to.
(END VIDEO CLIPS)
VELSHI: OK. Let's make sense of all of this.
Senior political editor Mark Preston and deputy political director Paul Steinhauser join me. We're both -- we're all in New York to break this down. They're just upstairs in the fantastic new studio you're going to be seeing a lot of in the next few days.
First of all, guys, let me ask you this -- Paul, let me start with you. With all the stuff about it's not going to be that bad or it's going to be worse, how accurate do these polls end up being this close to the election?
PAUL STEINHAUSER, CNN DEPUTY POLITICAL DIRECTOR: Oh, we'd like to consider our polls pretty accurate at CNN. You know, back in 2008, we actually got the popular vote in the presidential contest spot on.
Ali, we always say, listen, polls are a snapshot of how people are feeling right now. Well, right now is just, what, a day from the election. So, we're pretty close.
Hey, you just showed that overall generic ballot question.
VELSHI: Yes.
STEINHAUSER: And that's probably the best barometer -- not the only one, but the best one. You saw a 10-point advantage here. But let's break it down a little bit more.
Check this out. Let's talk about independent voters. Those not registered as Democrats or Republicans. When we asked the generic ballot, and that's standard question, would you both Democratic or Republican, generic? Look at this -- 55 percent for Republicans, 32 percent for Democrats.
Why is that troubling? Because, remember, independents went for the Democrats in '06 and '08, and the Democrats won pretty big -- Mark.
MARK PRESTON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL EDITOR: You know, Ali, is this election about Republicans and the ideas that they have put forward? You know, we asked the question, if the GOP wins control of Congress, the country will be better off, worse off or no difference. Split three ways, Ali. Only 34 percent of Americans say that would be better off, 28 percent say it would be worse off.
This is a disturbing number, I think -- just disturbing in regards to talk about politics.
Thirty-six percent say there would be no difference.
What's this is about? This is not necessarily an election to try to get Republicans into power. It's about punishing the party that is currently in power. Of course, that's Democrats -- Paul.
VELSHI: OK.
STEINHAUSER: Ali, we'll talk about Barack Obama. Listen, Ali, I put this one more here, there's two more real quick, I promise.
VELSHI: Yes.
STEINHAUSER: We talk about this election. The president is not on the ballot, but look at this number right here, brand-new from our poll as well. Would you be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports or opposes the president? Thirty-nine percent say support. Fifty percent, they say oppose. That's very different than it was a year ago.
Mark, you got one more number.
PRESTON: And quickly, Ali, a very disturbing number right now. Things are going well in the country. Only 25 percent of Americans say that right now. Well, you know that better than anybody, you follow the economy. You know what the unemployment rate is -- 25 percent. That's the lowest number since the mid-'70s.
So, pretty disturbing numbers right now.
VELSHI: All right. Let me ask you this, guys. Go back to that original number that we had that showed -- the spread right now versus what it was exactly at the same time before the 1994 election. A seven-percentage-point spread in 1994 gave the Republicans this big win, 52 seats in the House. Does a 10-point spread necessarily mean they get the same type of win? Or do these numbers play out differently when it comes to actual number of seats that they result in?
STEINHAUSER: It could play out differently because, also, if you go back just four years to 2006, the Democrats actually in our last poll had an 11-point advantage. They picked up 30 seats. So, it's not an exact science. But we will say, some of the top nonpartisan political handicappers predict anywhere from 50 to 60-plus seats for the Republicans.
VELSHI: Wow. OK, guys, we'll check in with you in a little while.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: This is -- I know we've got a lot of evolving stuff, we lot of those numbers. We'll talk again in an hour. You give me some other stuff.
Guys, good to see you. Mark Preston and Paul Steinhauser, I mean, they're becoming interchangeable to us. They're not really. They're two separate guys.
Rising concern at airports around the world -- we've been following this story, too. Could there be more bombs in cargo or passenger planes? The latest on the airplane bomb plot right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: There's a high level of concern at airports around the world this hour. The key question for security officials: could there be more bombs hidden in air cargo on the ground or on commercial flights? All of this in question now.
President Obama's top counterterrorism advisor says the two package bombs discovered on Friday were intended to detonate in flight. Here's what John Brennan told CNN:
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN BRENNAN, WHITE HOUSE COUNTERTERRORISM ADVISER: It is my understanding that these devices did not need someone to actually physically detonate them, that they could have been detonated in the location where they were on the plane, or they could have been detonated when they reached their destination.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Unlike several previous terrorist plots, this time, the intelligence worked, setting off an international alert before the attack could be carried out.
As you see on this map, one bomb was discovered in Dubai after being sent from Yemen. The device consisted of a cell phone circuit board and a computer printer. The other bomb was found on a cargo plane that had landed in England. Both packages were addressed the synagogues in Chicago.
U.S. officials say an alert from Saudi Arabia led to the interception of the two bombs. Now American officials believe the two bombs were the work of al Qaeda bomb maker Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri. He's also believed to have made the so-called "underwear bomb" that failed to explode on a Detroit-bound jetliner on Christmas Day last year.
Paul Cruickshank joins me live now. He's CNN's terrorism analyst.
Paul, you were on top of this story right from the beginning. First of all, there is an update. This is a multi-country effort. There's an update from the -- from Britain.
PAUL CRUICKSHANK, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Yes, Ali. Just in the last few minutes, the British authorities said that these were viable devices. They probably would have worked -- they probably would have blown these aircrafts -- these cargo planes out of the sky as they approached the United States. They also said -- and this is important -- that they don't consider that to be an imminent threat right now. In other words, one could read into that that there are no more parcels that they believe are in the mail.
But they're still very concerned that this group, al Qaeda in Yemen, they're going to launch follow-up attacks in the same mold.
VELSHI: OK. When we first started covering this, there were questions asked about whether this was a test, whether this was a way to see whether they could send devices to different places. So, when you say it was viable, does that mean that we think that there was an intent to detonate these devices? Or there was an intent to detonate the ones that go to their destination? What -- tell me what that sounds like.
CRUICKSHANK: It means that these were real bombs on real aircrafts and on their way to the United States. If they had not been found, they would have found a way perhaps, it's believed, to detonate them. It's being treated very seriously. It means this is one of the most serious terrorism plots we've seen in this country since 9/11.
VELSHI: Right. OK. We knew that there were -- there were circuit boards, there were parts of telephones, parts of printers and a known explosive. Do we know how they would have detonated that?
CRUICKSHANK: Well, the working assumption right now is maybe through a cell phone, that you could call these things out from Yemen, maybe send a text message -- as they're on their final descent into America.
VELSHI: Right.
CRUICKSHANK: The coverage, the cell phone coverage comes back up. VELSHI: Right.
CRUICKSHANK: And then they could detonate. That's a working assumption right now of authorities. They're investigating many possibilities.
VELSHI: Another question that's coming up from people is why cargo planes?
CRUICKSHANK: Well, it may be an easiest way to attack air transport again. The passenger jets are more difficult to target. That could be an explanation. But these bombs did go on some passenger jets at the beginning of their journey, Ali.
VELSHI: Right. And one of the issues, of course, is because they used -- they looked like components of either cell phones or printers, they didn't look like something else. I mean, that's kind of tricky, because if we're looking for a bomb, if you're sending something through a machine and you're looking for wiring that looks like a bomb, if the wiring happens to look like a cell phone or a printer, that becomes less likely to capture attention because we do ship both cell phones and printers.
CRUICKSHANK: That's absolutely right. These were very, very well-hidden within these printers. It took British police try to find exactly what they were looking for several hours to go after them. So, imagine how difficult it would have been to discover these things just by chance, just by normal screening. Even if there was 100 percent screening, these would have been very, very difficult to find, Ali.
VELSHI: Right. Let's talk about the bomb maker who we think might be connected to the underwear bomber on that Delta plane that went into Detroit on Christmas Day. That, to the non-sophisticated eye, seemed unsophisticated. The explosive in the guy's underpants, he didn't seem sufficiently capable of putting it off. This seems more sophisticated.
CRUICKSHANK: They seem to be learning that the working assumption is the same bomb maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, who is involved in both these attacks. The forensics they've done, the tests they've run, suggest this facts. And there was much more explosive this time around, we're led to understand, than in that Christmas Day attack.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: The thinking on the Christmas Day attack was that he was positioned in a particular place in the plane where they needed a certain amount of explosive to do a certain amount of damage. These things had enough explosive that they kind of could have been anywhere on a plane and taken a plane down.
CRUICKSHANK: Yes, let me give you some numbers. You know, the Christmas Day, 80 grams of PETN was involved, we believe. This time around, multiple times more explosives, multiple times more -- and more likely to bring down this aircraft. This is a very serious plot. They're learning these bomb making skills. PETN is a substance which is very stable, so you can transport it long distances.
VELSHI: Right.
CRUICKSHANK: If you get the detonating right and the chemistry right, it's going to go off.
Now, Christmas Day, they had some faults in how they put this thing together. It didn't work. You'd think they'd learned from their mistakes.
The British have just announced that this was probably going to be a viable device. They've just been saying, Ali.
VELSHI: All right. Paul, good to see you. Thanks very much and thanks for all the work that you've done on this. Paul Cruickshank, CNN's terrorism analyst.
We'll, of course, continue to cover this story very closely and let you know of any implications that we learn about.
Elections are tomorrow. What is the biggest concern? I don't think you'd have to guess too hard on this one. It's economy, money.
We've got the economic issues that voters care most about -- coming up next, right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Jobs are the talk of the town for tomorrow's elections. Jobs are the talk of the town for many discussions. Money in general is.
How do these issues stack up for voters? Well, a brand-new CNN/Opinion Research poll out shows that an overwhelming 52 percent of people polled put the economy as issue number one. Those are all the red people on the screen, 52 red people. That's the largest group of all those polled, think the economy is number one.
Let's see how the other ones stack up. The deficit -- by the way, nothing else hits 10 percent. Fifty-two percent think it's the economy. Deficit at 8 percent, although you could almost -- I mean, deficit is the economy.
Education and health care, while they're both highly money- related, the fact is there are other components of that war, 8 percent. So, deficit, education, health care, war, immigration -- all 8 percent. Isn't that remarkable?
Now, take a look at this one -- the most important problem facing the country. When asked -- the first one was the most important issue facing the country. This is the most important economic problem facing the country. Unemployment, 58 percent, say unemployment. Then 20 percent say deficit; taxes, 8 percent; mortgage -- the mortgage issues, 8 percent; inflation, 4 percent -- there's virtually no inflation right now, but we have fears of it; and the stock market, 1 percent. I'm really glad that the stock market is 1 percent because anybody who is complaining about the stock market after the run that we had up in 2009 and the beginning of this year, that's a little ridiculous.
Christine Romans, my good friend, my co-anchor on "YOUR $$$$$," is here with me now.
What do you make of this?
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CO-HOST, "YOUR $$$$$": Well, I think that number 58 is really fascinating because look, there's no question that anybody going to the voting booth this week, talked -- know somebody who's lost a job, that's worried about their own job.
VELSHI: Right.
ROMANS: Maybe they're doing their job and they're not satisfied in the job because we know that the polls show that people -- less than half the people are satisfied in the job they're doing right now.
VELSHI: Yes.
ROMANS: I think another interesting number that I just don't know what to -- how to make sense of it, found that people -- a majority of people think that the country is not going in the right direction.
VELSHI: Right.
ROMANS: Seventy-five percent think the economy is -- the country is not going in the right direction. But asked if personally if things are going well -- oh, yes, 78 percent of people think that things are going fine.
VELSHI: Interesting. But the same number, roughly the same number of people think their life is going OK, but the country isn't.
ROMANS: Right.
VELSHI: What does that mean?
(CROSSTALK)
ROMANS: And they're going to go to the polling place and they're going to know somebody who's just not living the American Dream to its fullest and that's really bothering them. And I think that's what we're seeing in these other polls, this proximity issue. That people -- everyone knows somebody who's really hurting right now, even if they think that they have managed to turn the tide here and move on.
VELSHI: Well, let me take this a little further. Let's go back to that second graphic that we have -- the most important economic problem facing the country where the unemployment was at 58 percent. That one -- that one makes a lot of sense to me. Maybe we can pull that up yet. Take a look at that.
All right. So, 58 percent, we get the -- the job thing, right? Because we all know, you ask anybody in a room, anybody who lost a job.
(CROSSTALK)
ROMANS: -- personal economy.
VELSHI: Right.
ROMANS: That's how the money comes in.
VELSHI: But tell me the second one, deficit. We don't feel the deficit. If I -- we had this discussion on the weekend, on "YOUR $$$$$." If you told me -- if they announced today that they were all lying and we don't actually have a deficit, it would make no difference, no material difference to my life.
Unemployment makes a difference to my life. I know unemployed people. I feel that. I don't feel -- I feel mortgage rates. I feel home prices. I feel the stock market.
ROMANS: Sure.
VELSHI: I do not feel the deficit. I'm not making an argument that it's not important, but we don't feel it.
ROMANS: We are a sensible country of sensible people who have had to tighten their own belts, right, Ali? And they've had to make some sacrifices and changes in their own life over the past few years.
They don't see the same thing happening in Washington. They see a lot of spending that maybe they don't understand, even if it is necessary and the right thing to do to save the economy. Maybe it hasn't been sold properly. And they're concerned.
These deficits as a size of economy are huge. Many people have never seen this in their lifetime. So, they're -- that concern, you're right. It's number two.
VELSHI: Number two. Yes.
ROMANS: It's interesting that it's up there.
VELSHI: The second biggest issue to people in the economy is something that you -- we can -- I think we went out and asked 10 people to articulate what it means. You know what they say? We're mortgaging our grandchildren's future or something of that nature.
ROMANS: Right.
VELSHI: Which has no -- we have no understanding, or maybe we're part of the problem, but we have no real understanding of why the deficit is that big of a problem. Yet, it's the second biggest issue with voters.
ROMANS: I will not admit to being part of the problem, Ali. We're part of the solution.
VELSHI: Right. Well, you and I have done a lot of it. It falls under the category of boring but important.
ROMANS: Oh, I love that category. You can say under our names --
VELSHI: Right?
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: You're right. When I say we, I mean, the larger media. But yes, we -- you and I both enjoy talking about deficits and debts.
ROMANS: But they're talking a lot about deficits and debts out on the campaign trail.
VELSHI: Yes, that's right.
ROMANS: That's a favorite of the Tea Party candidates, people who were talking about who want less government and less spending, and who are concerned about that longer-term and who are concerned mortgaging.
VELSHI: Yes.
ROMANS: So, you're hearing more about that out there in the mainstream than you've heard in some time.
VELSHI: Yes.
ROMANS: Because it's bigger than it has been --
VELSHI: OK. Over the next 48 hours, you and I are going t o be studiously involved in exit polling. We're going to be parsing all these numbers. We're going to be cross-tabulating. We're going to tell you how people in Wisconsin under the age of 6 who's name that starts with "W," how they voted.
ROMANS: Yes.
VELSHI: Whether they vote Democratic or --
ROMANS: Compare to the same cohort in 1964.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: We're going to be having a lot fun. There's some great new technology. So, Christine and I are going to do that.
If you love these geeky, boring, but important conversations, check in with more of it. Christine and I do it every weekend on "YOUR $$$$$," Saturdays at 1:00 p.m. Eastern, Sundays at 3:00. Christine is also the author of a great new book, which by the way is important and not boring, "Smart is the New Rich," available on bookshelves now, filled with lots of anecdotes and examples of how you can actually get smart and capitalize on a recovering economy. Although some people will say it's not recovering.
Christine, thanks a million.
I'll be bringing you up to speed on some of the top stories we're following.
Insurer AIG, remember them, says it's raised a chunk of money that will go toward paying back its share of the TARP bailout funds. At one time, AIG was on the hook for over $180 billion. The $37 billion it scraped together right now -- well, that will repay credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
In Baghdad, the death toll from a hostage stand-off at a Catholic church is now 58, 75 people were wounded. The crisis ended when Iraqi security forces stormed the church yesterday. Officials say most of the victims were killed when kidnappers set off explosives. Eight suspects are under arrest.
In Utah, Brian David Mitchell goes on trial today for the kidnapping of Elizabeth Smart. Smart was 14 years old when she was abducted eight years ago from her home. About nine months later, Smart was found on a Salt Lake City street in the company of Mitchell and his wife. Mitchell faces charges of kidnapping, sexual assault and burglary.
Well, CNN equals politics, you know that. And with just one day until Election Day, we are off to Nevada to check on one of the most closely watched and important races in the country. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: With dust just a day from the elections, all eyes are on the big races.
Stakes are very high in Nevada where the Tea Party darling, Sharron Angle, and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid are battling it out literally.
Jessica Yellin, our national political correspondent, is in Las Vegas.
Boy, when we talk about high-stakes races, this is one of the highest stakes races, not just politically. Not just for balance of power issues, but it's the speaker of the -- of the -- the majority leader of the Senate, a Senate that has attracted a lot of anger.
What's the potential outcome of this vote, Jessica?
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: You know what? This one -- they've spent more than $30 million here, the two sides together, Ali, and nobody knows is the bottom line. The polls show that they're neck and neck. Sharron Angle, the Republican Tea Party darling, edging slightly ahead in some early polls, but the Harry Reid folks insist that they have such a sophisticated, aggressive get-out-the-vote operation that they are confident that more of their voters will turn out on Election Day and in early voting.
Really, this is going to be a late, long night tomorrow night, Ali. No one knows. And all eyes really are on this state.
VELSHI: All right. A lot of people in Nevada have already voted. I mean, as crazy a campaign as this is, I've heard the focus talking about the number of hours of ads that are running on TV. But a lot of people have already made their decision.
YELLIN: Yes. It's remarkable. About -- according to election officials here, about 65 percent of everyone who will vote has already voted. They have an interesting system where you could -- for weeks past, you could have gone to your local mall, to area supermarkets and voted anywhere you were in the state.
So, the -- the slightly more Democrats have voted than Republicans, 8,000 to 10,000 more Democrats. But there are more Democrats in the state.
And both campaigns are spinning the numbers saying that it all looks good for them. The truth is: more often, Republicans turn out in bigger numbers on Election Day here.
So, the question is how many Sharron Angle Republicans turn out on Election Day? That is the number we're all be looking for to determine who wins here, Ali. And the math whizzes are crunching the numbers already.
VELSHI: Jessica, we're hearing a lot of cheering and booing. I've got -- I'm assuming it's got nothing to do with the report that you're making right now.
Where are you and what's going on?
YELLIN: It's a Michelle Obama rally for Harry Reid, a get-out- the-vote effort. Mrs. Obama has not yet shown up, but they have speakers, elected officials behind me urging people to use their cell phones to call undecided voters, to call voters who haven't yet gone to the polls.
And they're also obviously sending messages about the Republican opponent, which is why they're booing. I certainly hope they're not booing our report.
VELSHI: I'm sure that's what it is.
And, Jessica, that's an interesting point that you live on. And that is that the get-out-the-vote will make the big difference in many of these contests. A lot of it could turn out differently, but it depends on who gets out there and who votes. Jessica, good to see you. We will be seeing much of you over the course of the next 48 hours. Thanks so much -- Jessica Yellin in Nevada
Now, could Republicans take over both the House and the Senate tomorrow? We've been -- a lot of people have been predicting that it will mean the House goes Republican. We're yet not sure about the Senate. A lot of people don't think so.
But if it does, does this mix mean gridlock or does it mean cooperation? We're going to look into that with Gloria Borger on the other side.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Okay. If you like politics, get yourself an intravenous bag and just park yourself in front of CNN for the next 48 hours. Because we are going to have this -- we'll talk about politics everywhere we go. It's really best that you go in armed with as much information as you can.
Almost everybody agrees that the Republicans will make big gains in the House of Representatives and some gains in the Senate. The question is how big? You'll be seeing this a lot. There are 255 Democrats and 178 Republicans in the House right now. 435 seats total. A total of 218 seats are needed to win a majority. That means Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to gain control of the House.
In the Senate, there are 100 seats. There are now 57 Democrats, two independents who vote as Democrats, and 41 Republicans. So, Republicans need to pick up ten seats to gain control there.
Republican National chairman Michael Steele expects the GOP to pick up the 39 seats it needs in the House. He didn't sound so confident about the Senate. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL STEELE, RNC CHAIRMAN: I don't know how far beyond 39 we'll go. You know, that's going to be left up to the voters tomorrow. The Senate, again, there's always been a tough -- a tougher road for us simply by virtue of the numbers that we have in play there and the number of seats we have up versus the Democrats.
But I still feel that we're looking at at least a seven or eight-seat night. Again, there could be surprises, particularly as you heard -- you head further West. But we'll see.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Okay. So he said there that's going to be up to the voters. Gloria Borger, our senior political analyst, joins me now. Gloria, all of it is going to be about the voters, but you must get --
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: He was low-balling. He was low-balling, by the way.
VELSHI: Yes. Thirty-nine seats in the House. Lots of people are saying, it could be 50. If it's more than 52, they beat what happened in 1994.
BORGER: Which was 54.
VELSHI: So, what -- what are we -
BORGER: You know, if you look at -- if you talk to people and you look at what they're predicting, it's somewhere between 50 and 60.
VELSHI: Right.
BORGER: When you talk to Republicans privately, they will look at their -- at all their stats and they go, oh, we could actually be really having a wave here and the seats that we think are close, when there's a wave, they usually go your way.
So, it's really, you know, somewhere they're saying 50 to 60. And as I said, Michael Steele really doesn't want to say that. Because, you know, they don't want to play that game right now. They want to be surprised. And if they win, they want to be humbled.
VELSHI: We heard some Democrats saying, oh, they might keep the House. Is there anybody who deals with these numbers that thinks that's even a possibility?
BORGER: Some Democrats are keeping their fingers crossed. They're in many ways a victim of their own success because in 2006, 2008, they won 55 seats. Those are all -- those are all toss-up races because, you know, they're just battleground states --
VELSHI: Right.
BORGER: Battleground districts. And they also have 45 seats that John McCain won when he ran for president. So, they've got some rough terrain to defend. So, they're keeping their fingers crossed. They're trying to do hand-to-hand combat. That's why we see so many negative ads. They're trying to discredit their opponents. But they understand they don't have the issues set that they --
VELSHI: So this one -- if there are upsets or surprises by the Democrats, it's going to be something that happened locally most likely?
BORGER: Yes. And it's also going to be races that narrow that just tend their way because people are voting straight Republican because you've got independents so angry at the Democratic party right now. And they're just going to say, you know -- it's not that they love Republicans, but they're voting yes or no, and they're going to vote no.
VELSHI: And as Jessica was saying, if the get-out-the-vote campaign works in certain places with the Democrats, that may be the -- the only trick they've got left. BORGER: Very important. As Jess was saying, in a state like Nevada where Harry Reid has got labor working for him, labor can get out the vote. He can maybe get out Hispanic voters, he can get out minority voters. That's going to make a difference.
Midterm elections are always about turnout. When there's nobody at the top of the ticket. In the end, though, what we've seen in the polls, these enthusiasm polls, that the Republicans really have enthusiasm on their side because who -- who votes? The people who were angry or --
VELSHI: Who want change. The same people that write comments on Amazon. They're mad.
BORGER: And they feel they have a stake in this election. That's why you see Barack Obama is saying, yes, you do have a stake in this election, Democratic voters, even though I'm not on the ticket. It's a difficult line that he's walking because he doesn't want to make this election about him, but the election is about him.
VELSHI: Here's my question. The largest number of people affected outside of the economy, which affected almost all of us over the last two years, have been those people who were not insured who will be insured under the government's health care.
BORGER: Right.
VELSHI: Why is that not a get-out-the-vote movement? Why are those people who are saying, oh, my God, if the Republicans take over, they have said very clearly they'll want to repeal or change some of my ability to get health care.
BORGER: They're not talking about the T.A.R.P being repaid, right?
VELSHI: Right.
BORGER: Because two things, people didn't like T.A.R.P. And they don't like health care reform.
VELSHI: Right, but T.A.R.P -- and that's a good point. Mostly repaid.
BORGER: And is anybody bragging about that, including Barack Obama? We're not talking about bailouts.
VELSHI: Right. They don't want to go down that road of talking.
BORGER: So health care reform, right?
VELSHI: Right.
BORGER: Sixty-two percent of the voters don't like health care reform.
VELSHI: Wow. BORGER: And they're not seeing the impact of it yet because it's such a huge deal. It doesn't really kick in until 2014.
VELSHI: Right. Right. Only a couple of provisions have kicked in already.
BORGER: So, they're not seeing differences in their insurance. Their insurance premiums are continuing to go up. They're not insured yet. So, they are seeing some little --
VELSHI: It's like Ronald Reagan says. Do you feel better than you did -- you know, is your life better than it was four years ago? For a lot of people, that's not the case.
BORGER: Right. It isn't the case. That's what really the Democrats are so worried about. If they lose the House and maybe the Senate - who knows? They've got to come back and deal with this economy. Because they don't want that to be two more years.
VELSHI: Story in 2012. All right. Gloria, we'll be talking a lot of the course of the next couple of days. Gloria Borger, our senior political analyst.
Other big story today. Terror grips Istanbul's largest entertainment district. Officials aren't saying who may have carried out a bomb attack there. A live report is coming up in Globe Trekking, right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Time now for Globe Trekking. First stop, Istanbul, Turkey. A city in fear after a bomb ripped through the largest entertainment district in the city. The key question right now is who carried out the attack? Terrorists or Kurdish separatists?
CNN's Ivan Watson is following the story. He joins us live. Ivan?
IVAN WATSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Ali, that's right. I'm coming to you from Istanbul's Taksim Square. It's where we've talked to you for Globe Trekking before.
I'm going to get out of the way. You can compare this to the Times Square of Turkey's largest city. It's an important nexus for trade, for transport, for tourism. You've got hundreds of bars and hotels and restaurants in the streets around here.
Hard to believe as you look out there -- you see the flower vendors out there, Ali -- that less than 36 hours ago, an apparent suicide bomber detonated explosives right at the edge of this square, wounding at least 32 people. That bomb going off in broad daylight.
And it could have been much worse because Turkish authorities say the bomber had some explosives that apparently did not go off. They say the target, Ali, were police that were usually set up at one end of the square to control frequent political protests that gather here. The Turkish police have put forward this photo - you may be able to take a look at it -- of what they say is the bomber who was killed in the blast.
They are not naming the bomber. They also are holding back right now on accusing any groups of being behind this attack. Ali?
VELSHI: They're holding back on accusing any groups. They're actually offering, I've heard, very little information about their investigation. Is that typical?
WATSON: Well, this is pretty -- it's a pretty delicate moment right now. The chief suspect would be Kurdish separatists, known as the PKK, the Kurdistan Workers Party. They've been fighting for nearly 30 years against the Turkish state. There have been a lot of reports about - behind-closed-door talks taking place between the Turkish government and the jailed PKK leader, Abdullah Ocalan, who's in an island in Turkey's Marmara Sea right now.
The PKK -- I spoke to one of the rebel spokesman from northern Iraq where much of the leadership is based. He denied any links whatsoever to this explosion. And he announced that the PKK would extend its unilateral cease-fire until at least summer. That cease-fire was supposed to end yesterday, which is why a lot of the suspicion arose that it could have been a PKK bomb.
Right now, with the Turkish government not accusing anyone and the PKK denying responsibility, it's anyone's guess who was behind this very disturbing blast, Ali.
VELSHI: All right. Ivan, good to see you. Thanks very much. Ivan Watson in Istanbul. We'll continue to follow that story.
WATSON: Let's go to Brazil right now. Dilma Rousseff has been elected the country's first female president. Millions of voters turned out for what was a run-off election. Rousseff has never before held office. She succeeds Luis Ignacio Lula DeSilva, who we know as Lula. Thousands of supporters of her governing Workers Party took to the streets to celebrate her victory. She says a top priority is to make sure that equality between men and women becomes the norm at every level of life.
OK. You know those tiny little smart cars on the road? God, it seems like you could pick them up with one hand. Imagine driving something almost half the weight of a Smart car. Put yourself in park and stay tuned. I'm going to tell you about this on the other side.
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VELSHI: In today's Big I we're talking about the cars of the future. We do that a lot in Big I but this one has a twist. They are super light, and I mean super light. A few guys could pick these up.
Every year, Design Los Angeles holds a design challenge for auto designers. This year, they challenged them to create a car that weighed no more than 1,000 pounds. The average car weighs about 4,000 pounds. We're talking about a major car designers like Toyota, Nissan, Mercedes-Benz and Honda. Let's start with this concept car from Cadillac. It's called the Aera. I think that's how you say it -- A-E-R-A. It's a touring coupe with a lattice design that has a range of about 1,000 miles before refueling. Remember, a light car has the advantage of being more fuel efficient.
This next car, it's from Honda. It's called the Air. Are you sensing a theme here? It was inspired by the modern roller coaster and sky diving wing suits.
OK, let me show you this next one. It is the Maybach DRS from Mercedes-Benz Research and Development in Japan. Check this out. It's powered by a self-balancing electric drive unit and controlled by an onboard computer.
And this next one is also from Mercedes. It's called the Biome, B-I- O-M-E. It's an ultra-light car that collects energy from the sun and uses it as power. Mercedes has developed technology to pull excess solar energy from trees. Who knew that there was excess solar energy in trees?
Now let's look at Nissan's thousand pound concept car. It's called the IV. The frame is derived from fast-growing ivy and reinforced with spider silk composite.
And Toyota's concept car of the future is called the Nori. The body of the car will be made from bioplastic technology derived from seaweed and combined with a carbon fiber weave, which will give it more strength. This car utilizes four electric wheel motors.
Last, but definitely not least, the Volvo air Motion. It's designed like a clam shell and sculpted from ultra-light carbon fiber.
The top design will be picked later this month and presented at the L.A. Auto Show. I have to say, I like this topic so much, I think this is so interesting that let's visit this again when the L.A. Auto Show is on and we'll tell you what was up for competition and which one actually won. That could evolve into some kind of a model for a car in the future.
OK, the president went trick-or-treating on Air Force One over the weekend. We'll show you how well he did when we check in with the next installment of the political ticker. Dana Bash is standing by.
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VELSHI: Time now for a political update. Senior Congressional correspondent Dana Bash is part of the Best Political Team on Television. And for a moment there, seemed to have her own theme music. She joins me now from Washington.
How'd you get to Washington? Weren't you in New York? You are in New York.
DANA BASH, CNN SENIOR CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm in New York. I'm one floor down. VELSHI: You're upstairs.
BASH: I'll be in Washington tomorrow. I'll be in Washington tomorrow. But, Ali, you know, I'm in New York, and when you and I think about -- in fact, most people think about the state of New York they don't think of it as a big political battleground, right? They think of it as a true, blue Democratic state, right?
VELSHI: Yes.
BASH: Well, guess what, that's not the case this particular year when it comes to the House of Representatives. It is a huge battleground. About half a dozen seats are at play. In fact, we have a story on the ticker right here about the fact that this could -- the state could help House Republicans make up the majority if they get there tomorrow night.
This guy right here, this is one of the Democrats we talked to, John Hall. Here's a teaser for you, Ali. He was a lead singer in the '70s band Orleans. He sang us a little tune. If you go in there you'll see that.
Next on the ticker is a pair of really good stories from our intrepid congressional producers Ted Darrett (ph) and Deidra Walsh (ph). They look ahead at what's at stake in the House and Senate after the election. I'll give you a little teaser. Deidra got a quote from a GOP insider who said it would be hostility on nitroglycerin.
And in the Senate, you guessed it, even more legislative gridlock if Republicans as expected, at least, increase their numbers and there's more parity with regard to the Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, Ali.
VELSHI: Here's something that got my attention on the ticker. The president went into the area on Air Force One -- I've never been on it but I heard this -- where the press hang out. That's not usually something he does. Doesn't do it on a regular basis at least.
BASH: He doesn't. In fact, this is just the third time that he's gone back to talk to the press corps since he's been in office. I remember a White House reporter and I covered George Bush. He didn't come back for several years. And it was a big deal -- I remember once, when we were on an international trip, getting called up to the front.
But he came back, President Obama, at the end of his four-state campaign swing this weekend. He stayed for about one minute and he did talk about Halloween and he came back just to say Happy Halloween.
I'll tell you a little something. A reporter asked what his daughters are going to dress as and he said that Sasha was going to dress as a turkey. He was asked if he was going to pardon the turkey. He said, yes, maybe I'll pardon Sasha. So, there was a one minute little back and forth with the press corps and then he was off. Poof.
VELSHI: You can't collect a lot of candy in a minute. BASH: Or, for the press, more importantly, can't collect a lot of information. But it actually is interesting because I remember being on the McCain plane -- yes, real quickly, I remember being on the John McCain plane back in 2008. And that was like the one time when Cindy McCain and Megan McCain came back to talk to the press corps to handout candy.
So, maybe, I don't know, it's just that towards getting closer to Election Day, maybe it's that they're hyped up on sugar. I don't know what it is about these politicians finally giving us a little bit of time on Halloween.
VELSHI: Speaking of hyped on sugar or caffeine, whatever it is. That's what all of us are going to be over the course of the next 24 hours as we get ready for some fantastic election coverage.
I'm glad to hear that you're here because I think I saw you here a little while ago and read you're in Washington, and said, that didn't make sense.
All right, Dana. We'll check in later a little later on.
Dana Bash, part of the Best Political Team on Television, right upstairs from where I am, which is the headquarters. That's where our election coverage is going to be coming from. We will keep you very well informed.
More than 200,000 people poured into D.C. in support of sanity this weekend. And no, it wasn't a shrink's convention. I've got some Odds and Ends coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
VELSHI: Time for some odds and ends now. The biggest and maybe oddest event of the weekend was the much-hyped Rally to Restore Sanity and/or Fear. Hosted by Comedy Central stars Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert, the event filled the Washington Mall, but for what exactly?
MC Stewart tried his best to spell it out.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOHN STEWART, HOST, "THE DAILY SHOW": I can't control what people think this was. I can only tell you my intentions. This was not a rally to ridicule people of faith or people of activism, or to look down our noses at the heartland or passionate argument, or to suggest that times are not difficult and that we have nothing to fear. They are and we do. But we live now in hard times, not end times.
(APPLAUSE)
STEWART: And we can have animus and not be enemies.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Sounding feeling a lot more like a political guy than a comedian there. One particular line from his speech summed up a lot of folks' frustration with political discourse lately. Quote, "If we amplify everything, we hear nothing." That I like, Jon.
Another actor and comic got fired up about a political issue this weekend. Zach Galifianakas sparked cheers and laughter when he sparked up something else on Bill Maher's HBO show.
ZACH GALIFIANAKAS, ACTOR: I think I have to agree, it's a tricky thing politically to jump on that bandwagon because I think that maybe people see it as taboo still. So I --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's why it's a ballot measure, because no politician even if they thought it was a good idea -- as I was saying --
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP) VELSHI: Galifianakas and the rest of the panel were talking about California's Proposition 19, which aims to legalize marijuana use in the Golden State. He was trying to make the point that a lot of people maybe equate pot with harder drugs, which in his opinion is a mistake.
Guess we'll see tomorrow when Californians head to the polls.
