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Uprising in Libya; Gadhafi Clings to Power; U.N. Slaps Libya with Sanctions; What Led to Libya Turmoil
Aired February 26, 2011 - 22:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
DON LEMON, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, Libya, a country in turmoil. Gadhafi's people rise up against him. His allies back away.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The president is obviously concerned about the safety of American citizens.
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LEMON: Is the erratic strong man losing his grip?
CNN is now inside the middle of this unprecedented upheaval, a country that suppressed journalists and its people with an iron fist until now. How will the fate of a dictator impact your world?
Hello and welcome to our viewers from around the world to CNN special report on the uprising in Libya. I'm Don Lemon.
JOHN VAUSE, CNN ANCHOR: And hello, I'm John Vause from CNN International. Right now, it is early Sunday morning in Libya in the capital of Tripoli and ominous silence. One man tells CNN, he senses something big is going to happen.
LEMON: Yes, Moammar Gadhafi's son proclaimed the protests have subsided and all Libyan people are now united behind the Gadhafi regime. Time will tell, the rest of the world isn't waiting, though.
VAUSE: The U.N. Security Council approved a draft resolution to impose new sanctions against Gadhafi's government. U.S. President Barack Obama said Gadhafi has lost the right to lead Libya and needs to step down.
LEMON: And Gadhafi has defiantly stood his ground since mass protest erupted two weeks ago vowing to stay in power by force if necessary. And true to his word, armed mercenaries gunned down countless demonstrators. The U.N. believes more than 1,000 people have died.
VAUSE: Much of the country is no longer under Gadhafi's control, and a former justice minister has emerged as a key opposition leader to lead an interim government.
LEMON: And CNN senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is in Tripoli, where it is now Sunday morning.
Nic, so the opposition has picked a leader. But is there a real sense that anyone is in charge?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There's certainly a sense here in Tripoli that they are talking about talking with the opposition, and when I asked what have you agreed on and what have you said so far? They said they have agreed on one point and that is that Libya should just be one country. That it shouldn't be divided. But we have also heard that the opposition has said that they're not aware of these talks so there's some confusion about it at this time.
But certainly the leadership here, and I just a little while ago, I met Saif-al Gadhafi, Moammar Gadhafi's son, I met him here in the hotel. And in the conversation, he made it very clear, he thought the regime can survive and can go on and can unify the country. That this can be done. And he also said that he thought it could be done without violence, or rather he wanted it done without violence. He didn't say how it was going to be achieved, however.
VAUSE: Does Tripoli seem like it's a capital city about to fall?
ROBERTSON: No. That's what makes it strange. It absolutely doesn't seem like a capital city that's about to fall. We have heard gunshots off in the distance here, but when you measure the whole country against the capital and see how the east has fallen and other cities we hear have fallen, it makes you wonder how long the capital can last.
When I asked Saif-al Gadhafi this question, he said that he thought that they can hold on. They can continue. He said look at the situations in Sudan, for example, look at the situation in Algeria. He made it sound as if they believe firmly that they can continue to hold on, they can build some kind of bridges, that somehow they can make all this better. But no.
The strange thing about Tripoli right now is it's much quieter than it would be normally, but it's not a city that's -- that you can see it seething with anger, and the answer for that is probably because beyond where we are right now and the police check points and the young men on the streets, there are more check points around this city, much stronger check points keeping the population in check. Have we been able to see all of that so far? No. These are the reports that we get from people who are living here in Tripoli, who are able to communicate with us occasionally on Skype and by other means. This is -- this is what they're telling us.
LEMON: All right. Thanks to Nic Robertson.
After two weeks of revolt, John, who controls what areas in Libya?
VAUSE: Yes, for more than 40 years, the nation is 6.4 million people are being under the control of Moammar Gadhafi. We know now that two cities, the capital of Tripoli and Sirt remained under his control. But three cities, the coastal cities of Benghazi, Misrata and Tobruk, all of those are in the east, they're now under the control of the protesters.
So if you combine these two maps, you'll see that there's one major city which is actually up in the air. It has traded places a couple of times. The protesters had it once, Zawiya. It was thought to be a bastion of support for Gadhafi, and when the protesters erupted there, it was of particular pain to Gadhafi, who singled out that city in a number of his addresses on state-run television.
LEMON: And it looks like the way things are going, then we will see other cities possibly added to that map.
VAUSE: Absolutely.
And we have 4 million people in the west. We have 1.6 million people in the east.
LEMON: And we've been talking a lot about what's happening at the United Nations. As we mentioned, the United Nations tonight is sending a strong message to Gadhafi, the U.N. Security Council unanimously approved a resolution to slap Libya with sanctions for its crackdown on protesters.
VAUSE: Yes, let's go to foreign affairs correspondent, Jill Dougherty. She's been following all of this for us live in Washington.
And, Jill, we're talking about some sanctions here that actually have teeth, not just gesture and politics here. Actual sanctions that say there are consequences for those associated with this regime.
JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Right. I mean, that's based on the fact that people hope that this will work, but what it includes is arms embargo, asset freezes, travel bans on Moammar Gadhafi and on his associates. And as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Susan Rice said that this will send a message directly to the Libyan leader.
Here's what she said.
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SUSAN RICE, U.S. AMBASSADOR TO THE U.N.: Tonight, acting under Chapter 7, the security council has come together to condemn the violence, pursue accountability, and adopt biting sanctions targeting Libya's unrepentant leadership. This is a clear warning to the Libyan government that it must stop the killing. Those who slaughter civilians will be held personally accountable. The international community will not tolerate violence of any sort against the Libyan people by their government or security forces.
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DOUGHERTY: And Secretary of State Hillary Clinton signed an order revoking the U.S. visas of Libyan officials, others who have been involved in human rights violations and also their immediate families.
And then, finally, Secretary of State Clinton issued a statement, a written statement and in that she used and the president now is using the actual name of Moammar Gadhafi which they hadn't before. She said, "Moammar Gadhafi has lost the confidence of his people and he should go without further bloodshed and violence. The Libyan people deserve a government that is responsive to their aspirations and that protects their universally recognized human rights."
Now, Secretary Clinton leaves Sunday and she is going to Geneva, Switzerland. She will be taking part in a meeting of the U.N. human rights council. And they already have voted to suspend the membership of Libya in that body.
She'll also have a good chance to meet with other foreign ministers and coordinate on next steps. One thing that she did stress, Don and John, is that they are looking for ways of providing humanitarian assistance and that is very important obviously right now.
LEMON: And Jill, the Obama administration was criticized for not really having a clear message when it came to Egypt. Let's talk about that now, because it is not mincing words over Libya, it looks like.
DOUGHERTY: It isn't. And it really was striking that as soon as the Americans were out of there, remember the ferry, the planes, et cetera, they really toughened the rhetoric. And now it's not just general statements about human rights violations. It's really personal directives to the leader Moammar Gadhafi.
They're toughening it, but the question is whether even these economic sanctions will have any effect because Gadhafi apparently has a lot of money. There has been a very large amount of money that has come from the oil revenues. And remember the president last night signed an order of freezing some of those assets. So the jury is still out on this whether we'll have a direct effect, but that is what some of what they are doing. They stress, however, that really, everything is on the table and there's a wide range of options that they now have presented to the president.
VAUSE: OK, Jill, thank you very much. Jill Dougherty live for us in Washington. And, of course, there's always a threat of taking the Libyan regime to the international criminal court. That's having some teeth, as well.
LEMON: Absolutely. And we have gotten you up to speed our viewers on what's happening. We want to get you -- take a look back, really, at how we got here. What sparked the multiple uprisings across the Middle East?
VAUSE: Yes, like the neighbors in Egypt and Tunisia, Libya's turmoil has a lot to do with economic hardships. There's also this hunger for change among a younger generation.
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PROTESTERS: SHOUTING
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VAUSE: And welcome back to this special report on the uprising in Libya.
We'll go back now and show you how Libya actually reached this boiling point. Like its neighbors, Libya has massive unemployment, a large youth population and a high cost of living.
LEMON: Obviously a lot of turmoil and all of it came together as a kindling, really. And then ten weeks ago, a young man in Tunisia set off a domino effect that is yet to end.
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LEMON (voice-over): In a small Tunisian town, 26-year-old Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire as people watched in horror. One of a generation of jobless college graduates, Bouazizi had set up an unlicensed fruit cart to support his family. Authorities confiscated it and some reports say a female government employee slapped him when he turned to complain. He likely died feeling he had enough.
A week later, December 24th, protests erupted in other Tunisian towns and clashes with security forces left an 18-year-old dead. More and more people who weren't going to take it anymore were showing up. President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali warned this was not acceptable and they would be punished.
In the New Year, more protests.
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LEMON: More death.
Ben Ali was beginning to get it, but was offering too little, too late to the thousands who wouldn't quit. In mid-January he quit and escaped to Saudi Arabia.
By now, much of the world was watching and noticing how new technology, social media, Twitter and Facebook, were helping protesters communicate and organize their fight.
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LEMON: Suddenly protests were organized in Egypt via Facebook page targeted at Egyptians. Its author Wael Ghonim called for higher minimum wages and government reform, including the resignation of President Hosni Mubarak and a day of rage on January 25th. Ghonim was thrown in jail. But there was another new element.
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We have never seen any demonstrations like this Cairo. LEMON: The international media providing live pictures and close-up stories of the rage. Others around the world watched the protesters' own home videos on the Internet.
Millions of people worldwide started channeling their own frustration with politics and the economy through tens of thousands on the streets of Egypt's major cities. Mubarak was having none of it. Pro-Mubarak supporters appeared, wrecking havoc on the demonstrators and then on the media.
WEDEMAN: Hey calm down, calm down.
LEMON: At times, vehicles plowed through Cairo's Tahrir Square running over people in the crowd. The day of rage was nothing compared to the days that followed.
On January 29th, Mubarak sacked his cabinet and appointed a vice president. A few days later, he defiantly said he would only leave office after his term ended in September. He told ABC's Christiane Amanpour stepping down then would send the country into chaos. But the country was already in chaos. Wael Ghonim and his Facebook page had become a face for the movement.
The relentless pounding of reality and pressure from the world community pushed Mubarak to the brink. On Friday, February 11th, he turned power over to the military and hasn't been seen in public since.
A day of rage in Sudan at the end of January was squashed by government authorities. In Yemen, protesters are calling for the ouster of President Ali Abdullah Saleh. He's been in power for 30 years. Fighting with government supporters and police since January has led to bloodshed, but little satisfaction.
In Algeria, Jordan, Kuwait, Syria and Saudi Arabia, those in power are now offering their people concessions, and in Saudi Arabia's case, billions of dollars in an effort to stem the tide.
Four days after Mubarak fell, peaceful demonstrations started in Libya against President Gadhafi. Unlike in Tunisia and Egypt, the crowd started smaller and the international media was not allowed in the country to report the events. But like the other leaders Gadhafi was defiant. What reports got out told of soldiers firing teargas and bullets, even bombs being dropped on protesters. None of which CNN could confirm. Still, they were determined. And ten days after the demonstrations started, Gadhafi's son had to go on state TV to threaten them. And later the president used his media to show a picture of peacefulness, power and business as usual.
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LEMON: So now, John, here we are. And the uprising in Libya obviously having a major impact on the oil price which is -- oil prices which is having a major impact on the rest of the world.
VAUSE: It has a huge effect on that. So we want to walk you through the effect on several countries and why this affects many of you at home.
Stay with us.
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PROTESTERS: SHOUTING
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LEMON: Welcome back to our special coverage of the unrest in Libya.
And Libya only produces about two percent of the world's oil, but make no mistake, it is a major player. The unrest in Libya's creating uncertainty in global markets and that's directly impacting Americans.
VAUSE: As well as a lot of other people around the world. Libya sits atop the largest oil reserves in Africa. 80,000 barrels a day are exported to the U.S. About 1.2 million barrels to the rest of the world. Libya's oil is light sweet crude. That's the highest grade.
LEMON: And again, it's a relatively small amount, but Libya's deadly unrest is sending shock waves through the oil markets. Prices surged to over $10 a barrel this week before settling back to $97.
VAUSE: Americans are feeling it in their wallets, especially at the gas pumps. AAA on Saturday said the national average was $3.33 a gallon for regular gas. That's up nearly 24 percent from a year ago.
LEMON: John, that's just part of the story. Take a look at this. Rising oil prices affect a wide-range of goods and services that people depend on every day, especially food and clothing.
So joining us now is Gordon Chang. He writes about international affairs. He's a columnist at Forbes.com, and he joins us tonight from New York.
Thanks for joining us, sir.
LEMON: So, listen, can we feel it this fast? It seems like it came very quickly. The price of oil and the price of clothing going up.
GORDON CHANG, COLUMNIST, FORBES.COM: That's the way the global markets work. And part of the reason is because people are concerned. It's not just Libya and its 1.8 million barrels a day. People are concerned about the affect on Algeria and of course Saudi Arabia.
At the present time, Saudi Arabia is making up for the lost production in Libya, but if Saudi Arabia goes, that's maybe about nine percent of global production, then, you know, prices will just go crazy.
VAUSE: And, Gordon, this is a lot more than what people are actually paying when they fill up their car every day, whether it's here in the United States or London or Australia or wherever, where gas prices are expected to go through the roof in the next couple of weeks.
What they're saying is that if oil hits $120 a barrel or maybe up to $150, that will trigger a global recession.
CHANG: That's very possible because confidence right now around the world, not just in the United States but around the world is fragile. And we got to remember that oil is not just energy because it also affects food. It really feeds directly into food very quickly. And food inflation which is already very bad is going to get worse. So, clearly, this is going to affect us in all phases of our lives and the most important thing is it can send the world into the second part of a double-dip downturn that many people had been fearing. And in just the last several months, we said, oh, we have gotten over that, but now maybe not.
LEMON: Yes. And not to belabor the point, but we weren't doing so well globally, you know, anyway. So this is only just another shot to us. And again, as we said, not just the United States but around the world. We're already in recovery and this sets us back because two percent really isn't that much.
CHANG: No, it isn't. Also, you got to remember, though, as you pointed out, it is light sweet crude. This is very important because you just can't sort of substitute sour crude. And essentially what Libya has been doing is been supplying this at, you know, two percent is still important because global supplies are tight.
This is going to just sort of have a knock-on effect as we go through. And as I said, it's psychological and that's really what's going to be important going on. Not just in the oil markets, but also in food and elsewhere.
VAUSE: And, Gordon, just very quickly, normally when we talk to you, we're talking about issues of North Korea and China. But you're a very wise man.
But let me ask you, how are things playing out in China? How nervous are the communist party leaders in Beijing right now, watching not just Libya, Tunisia and Egypt and all of the region?
CHANG: They are very concern because China has its jasmine protest. In a few hours, we're going to see the sort of the second iteration of those. Chinese leaders had been blocking news of Egypt, Tunisia, Hillary Clinton, Jasmine.
All these words that are associated with the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa. Largely because the same conditions apply in China. It's different, but nonetheless, you can see that the Chinese leaders are extremely concerned with the series of high-level meetings all dealing with social stability and what they call social management.
VAUSE: Yes, indeed. Having spent sometime in China, I know exactly what they're doing right now.
Thank you, Gordon. We appreciate that.
LEMON: And, of course, we don't know where it's going, because this is really unprecedented so we don't know how bad it's going to get or if it's even going to get there.
VAUSE: It's totally unchartered territory right now.
You know, we know a lot about Moammar Gadhafi. But how much do we know about his sons?
LEMON: And WikiLeaks cables reveal many of them seem to share their father's violent tendencies and expensive tastes.
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VAUSE: And welcome back.
As Moammar Gadhafi clings to power in Libya, newly-released WikiLeaks documents are opening a window into his family life.
LEMON: Yes. And it is hard to say just how many children he has, sources say as many as eight, and as Brian Todd tells us, many of them seem to share their father's violent tendencies and expensive his tastes.
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BRIAN TODD, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Moammar Gadhafi's son appears on state TV and tells his nation life is normal. Saif Gadhafi's idea of normal and yours may be slightly different. U.S. diplomatic cables posted on WikiLeaks give details on the Gadhafi family's lifestyle that, quote, "provided local observers with enough dirt for a Libyan soap opera."
The cables say this lavish New Year's Eve party on the island of St. Barts in 2009 was thrown by Motassem al Gadhafi, one of the dictator's sons. The cables describe it as a million dollar personal concert with Beyonce and Usher performing: this video, taken by an eye witness.
The eye witness who declined to be identified by name for security reasons described to us what he saw.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I saw one of Gadhafi's son. He had long, slicked black hair. Looked very wealthy. He had lots of female acquaintances around him and was enjoying himself and drinking champagne out of the bottle.
TODD: That same son, according to the diplomatic cables, had thrown another New Year's Eve party on St. Barts the year before and paid Mariah Carey a million dollars to sing four songs. It's the same Motassem Gadhafi who serves as his father's national security advisor and once met with Hillary Clinton.
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TODD: In 2006, the family brought Lionel Ritchie in to perform at the ruins of the house the U.S. had once bombed; this in a country with widespread poverty.
Analyst Steven Clemons spent two days with Saif Gadhafi last year in Libya.
You saw something unusual at his house.
STEVEN CLEMONS, NEW AMERICAN FOUNDATION: Clearly guarded by every and any corner. And one of the things we found was a tiger. And the tiger was tied up. It was out there. It looked extremely healthy.
TODD (on camera): Spending is apparently not the only thing the Gadhafi family does excessively, there are various reports of violent behavior among Moammar Gadhafi's lesser known children.
The diplomatic cables say one Gadhafi son, Saadi, has had scuffles with police in Europe, abuse of drugs and alcohol. The cables also say Gadhafi's son Hannibal once assaulted his wife in a London hotel room. And experts say he's had other incidents.
PROF. NOUREDDINE JEBNOUN, GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY: Hannibal is the delinquent of the family. So while he was arrested in Switzerland in 2008 for beating his servant.
TODD: An arrest which led the Libyan government, experts say, to briefly hold Swiss businessmen hostage.
CLEMONS: It is a highly personalized, you know almost mafia franchise, in which you've got different types of personalities in the mix and a father who is indulging all of them.
TODD: Analysts we spoke with and the diplomatic cables also describe an intense personal rivalry for power between those two prominent sons, Saif and Motassem Gadhafi.
On the WikiLeaks cables on the sons we tried to reach Libya's representative in Washington for response. We didn't hear back. On the accounts of those parties and celebrity performances, we reached out to representatives for Beyonce, Usher, Mariah Carey and Lionel Ritchie for comment. The only one who got back to us was a representative for Beyonce who said, no comment.
Brian Todd, CNN, Washington.
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VAUSE: Good times are over.
LEMON: There you go. Beyonce, Mariah Carey. All right. Well, young people are usually at the forefront of change and it's no different when it comes to what's happening in Libya.
VAUSE: Thousands are taking to the streets in protest. Coming up, a closer look at how they're actually impacting the situation.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
LEMON: Tonight, Libya, a country in turmoil. Gadhafi's people rise up against him. His allies back away.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The president is obviously concerned about the safety of American citizens.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
LEMON: Is the erratic strong man losing his grip?
CNN is now inside the middle of this unprecedented upheaval, a country that suppressed journalists and its people with an iron fist until now. How will the fate of a dictator impact your world?
We want to welcome our viewers from around the world to our special coverage of the uprising in Libya.
VAUSE: We've been seeing a lot of young people take center stage during the uprising, not just in Libya, but also in Tunisia and Egypt and that may be no accident.
LEMON: And, you know, there are a record 100 million young people between the ages of 15 and 29 in the Arab world right now, and they are becoming a powerful force for change.
We're joined now by Reza Aslan in New York. He is the founder of AslanMedia.com and the author of "No God But God: The Origins, Evolution and Future of Islam."
Reza, welcome.
How's a demographic change over the past 50 years transforming the Arab world?
REZA ASLAN, AUTHOR, "NO GOD BUT GOD": You're talking about a region that's about three quarters under the age of 35. And more importantly, this is a youth bulge that is globalized, they are technologically savvy, they are politically sophisticated, they are socially conscious. They see what's going on around the world, whether through the Internet or through satellite TV and they want what they see around them.
And the idea that the authoritarian regimes of that region or beyond can continue to maintain a monopoly on the levers of communication has become something of a fantasy now. There's no way that you can keep these kids in the dark any longer and we're seeing the results of that.
VAUSE: And Reza, whether it's in Egypt or Libya or Tunisia or Bahrain, what we are seeing is that these young protesters are taking the lead and they're leaving behind the traditional opposition party.
So when all the dust settles here, what role will those opposition parties have and what role will the young people have?
ASLAN: Well, that's certainly remains to be seen. And it certainly depends on the country that we are talking about, but the best example of this, of course, is in Egypt where during the two and a half weeks of that uprising, most western analysts kept assuming that eventually the vacuum of the opposition would be filled by Egypt's most well-organized opposition, the Muslim brotherhood.
And yet, what we saw is that the Muslim brotherhood never led that movement. On the contrary, they seemed to be sort of left behind by the movement of the kids and certainly now as we look to the transition of what could come out of Egypt, the Muslim brotherhood will certainly play a role, but it will be a very small role. And I think that's the real key here.
The notion that we need some sort of leader for these oppositions that they have to be organized from above is no longer the case. In Egypt, it was Facebook. In Tunisia, it was Twitter. All around we're seeing new ways of identifying one's self of reaching out to each other, communicating and more importantly of organizing.
LEMON: And Reza, I know I'm asking you to look into the future with, you know, situation that's really unprecedented.
And the question is, what comes next for Libya? Can Moammar Gadhafi survive this?
ASLAN: That seems unlikely. And it seems as though that he's preparing for the end. I mean, he's made it very clear that the only way that this revolution in Libya is going to end is either with him in a body bag or with the rebels being mowed down.
So, I think, really what happens next is hard to say. This is a decentralized state. It's very tribal. National identity is not very strong. Remember, Gadhafi came to power on the heels of a military coup. He's not about to let that happen again, which is why he's made sure that the military is so weak, so fractured. So there really is no glue in Libya after Gadhafi goes. But the fact that he's going seems to be pretty inevitable at this point.
VAUSE: And just go a little bit beyond Libya and Moammar Gadhafi and look to the next country. It's a tough question to ask, where's this going? Which country is next?
ASLAN: Well, I'll be honest. I had my eye on Algeria for quite sometime now. Now obviously the government there was smart enough to suspend its 20-year emergency law. That was a good first step, but it doesn't seem to have exactly appeased the protesters there. What they want is something different. They want the opportunity that all people everywhere should have, to have some voice in their political futures, to be able to decide for themselves who leads them, who makes decisions for them. This is an aspiration that's reaching all across the region. And every dictator from Gadhafi to Assad in Syria has to understand that the old days are over.
LEMON: Reza Aslan, appreciate your time. Thank you.
VAUSE: Well, relations between Libya and the West have been somewhat of a roller coaster to say the least. First tensions intensified as Moammar Gadhafi gained more power.
LEMON: And decades later, tensions eased even leading to a meeting with former U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.
Up next here on CNN, we break down the history between Libya and the West.
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VAUSE: You know, the West view Moammar Gadhafi as a despot for much of his time in power, but over the past decades attitudes are being slowly changing.
LEMON: Towards the leader.
And our Suzanne Malveaux traces the way views of Gadhafi have evolved over the years.
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SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Since 1969, Moammar Gadhafi has controlled nearly everything in his country. Business, media, military and oil. As he grabbed more power, he expelled American and Western gas companies and investors, tortured and assassinated Libyan opposition. By 1980, the U.S. had severed all diplomatic ties.
JIMMY CARTER, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: Moammar Gadhafi is an irresponsible animal who has no scruples. He has no morals.
MALVEAUX: In the early '80s, tension between the U.S. and Libya intensified.
RONALD REGAN, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: We know that this mad dog of the Middle East has a goal of a world revolution, Muslim fundamentalist revolution which is targeted on many of his own Arab compatriots.
MALVEAUX: After years of minor scrimmages between U.S. and Libyan aircraft, Gadhafi turned into public enemy number one. Bombings in Rome, Vienna and then a disco in West Berlin frequented by Americans, all linked to Libya. The U.S. retaliates.
REAGAN: At 7:00 this evening, Eastern Time, air and naval forces of the United States launched a series of strikes against the headquarters, terrorist facilities and military assets that support Moammar Gadhafi's subversive activities.
MALVEAUX: That attack left 100 Libyans dead, including Gadhafi's daughter. Some believe for revenge, Gadhafi responded with a bomb aboard Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, leaving 270 dead. The U.N. Security Council answered with crippling sanctions.
After years of refusing in 1999, Gadhafi finally relented, handing over the Lockerbie suspects.
Following the September 11th attacks and the Iraq war, Gadhafi went even further, Libya took responsibility for the bombing and agreed to compensate the victims' families. The U.N. lifted sanctions. And that same year Gadhafi abandoned his efforts to develop weapons of mass destruction.
GEORGE W. BUSH, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: Colonel Gadhafi correctly judged that his country would be better of and far more secure without weapons of mass murder.
MALVEAUX: The U.S. eased travel restrictions and Western oil companies returned. The U.S.'s closest ally Great Britain took the lead.
TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: I'm conscious of the pain that people who have suffered as a result of terrorist actions in the past must feel that the world is changing.
MALVEAUX: In September of 2008, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice met with Gadhafi in Libya. The first such meeting between Libya and a high-ranking U.S. official in over half a century.
CONDOLEEZZA RICE, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: I thought he was serious. He said at one point that it has taken too long, that the lessons of history had to be learned.
MALVEAUX: But the very next year with Great Britain's cooperation, Scotland released one of the Lockerbie bombers on humanitarian grounds which sparked outrage. Scotland allowed the bomber who was said to be terminally ill to go home to Libya to die. But he is still alive today. His release has raised questions about if there was something else at play behind the deal further complicating the thawing relationship between Libya and the West.
Suzanne Malveaux, CNN, Atlanta.
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LEMON: And, you know, for many in Libya, they have never known a life without Gadhafi's rule.
VAUSE: So what would Libya be like if he lost power? Would it be peace? Would it be chaos? Some answers coming up -- next.
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LEMON: The Libyan uprising is the biggest challenge to Moammar Gadhafi's rule since he seized power in 1969, John.
VAUSE: Yes, he's been on the top for so long.
What would the country be like without him? Zain Verjee looks at what could happen if Libya has a power vacuum.
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ZAIN VERJEE, CNN STATE DEPARTMENT CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The Gadhafi family has a plan -- fight and die. But if there's a Libya without strong man Moammar Gadhafi, what would it look like?
BARAK SEENER, MIDDLE EAST RESEARCH FELLOW: It's very tribal and primitive. So as a result of that, there will be infighting amongst the tribes that can culminate in a civil war.
VERJEE: Ali is a Libyan living in London. He is more confident of his fellow countrymen's ability to avoid chaos.
ALI ZIU, POLITICAL ACTIVIST: We will form a government by themselves. The people, the Libyan people will decide and will do it, OK, by themselves. The government to run the country and after that they will follow steps where, you know, to have a better future, better life for the Libyan.
VERJEE: Some experts, though, are sounding the alarm bell. They say any leadership vacuum is dangerous and often allows extremists to become the winners.
SEENER: Right now in eastern cities of Libya, you have al Qaeda moving in. You have Islamism on the rise and you have absolutely no governance to speak of whatsoever.
VERJEE: Gadhafi deliberately got rid of any alternatives to his regime a long time ago, so there's no organized opposition group. And the Libyan army isn't going to step in and take control like in Egypt. It's divided. Gadhafi kept the military unprofessional and weak so he can maintain firm control.
One major worry, Libya's vital oil reserves, the largest in Africa. That wealth would likely be controlled by powerful, rival tribes that the west will have to woo. No matter what the challenges, protesters in Libya say they just want brother leader gone.
ZIU: The Libyan people are now heading to Tripoli to liberate Tripoli from Gadhafi and his fellow and to free Tripoli so that all Libya will be free.
VERJEE: They have had enough of him. It's been 42 years and for many even one more day is too much.
Zain Verjee, CNN, London.
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VAUSE: Well, Moammar Gadhafi has ruled Libya with an iron fist for more than four decades.
LEMON: And now as his opposition grows, so does unrest throughout the region. Straight ahead here on CNN, where will it spread next?
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LEMON: You know, it really has happened in quick succession, John. We have been watching these protests. They have spread across the Middle East. Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and now Libya. Each movement sudden, each outcome unpredictable.
VAUSE: Yes, really. Moving with incredible phase. So the question many are now asking is who's next? Which regime is likely to fall next?
So let's bring back in Gordon Chang. He writes about international affairs as a columnist at Forbes.com. And Reza Aslan founder of AzlanMedia.com.
And let's go to Gordon because, Gordon, Aslan said that he is keeping a close eye on Algeria as possibly the next regime which could go.
What are your thoughts, Gordon?
GORDON CHANG, AUTHOR, "NUCLEAR SHOWDOWN": I think it could go anywhere. Remember, Gadhafi is using massive, deadly force against the protesters. If he fails, and I think that's pretty likely, basically, other autocrats around the world are going to realize that killing citizens doesn't work. And when citizens realize that the leaders aren't going to use force against them, they are going to be bold, which really means that no regime, no regime will be safe.
LEMON: Reza, we're also been hearing, at least I've been hearing Saudi Arabia could be next.
Is that a real possibility, though?
REZA ASLAN, AUTHOR, "NO GOD BUT GOD": I would not bet on that at all. Saudi Arabia is not so much a country as it is the personal property of the al-Said clan. And they've got enough money and very few citizens to maintain some sort of control.
But Bahrain, I think, is another issue altogether because what the protesters there are asking for is something unique, a constitutional monarchy. That's all they want. They want a constitution. They don't want the regime to go, they want King Hamad Al Khalifa to stay in place. But they want some document that says the rights and privileges that every citizen should be able to have as their own. That's not too much to ask. And if the Bahraini government caves to that very simple demand, then I think you might see a change in the way the rest of the gulf monarchies deal with their populations.
VAUSE: And let's go back to Gordon. You mentioned the momentum there that people around the region are watching what's happening in Libya and elsewhere.
Is there anything that could derail that momentum? Is anything these regimes can do? Because it seems as if they have tried everything and it's just not working.
CHANG: Well, if Gadhafi were to stay in power, if he were to use deadly force as he has been up to now, and be able to quell the protests then strong men around the world are going to say, well, look, there's the way to stay in power.
So I think that essentially if he crushes the opposition, then we'll see steam being taken out of it, but that's not going to happen. And I think the opposite is going to be really the truth that we are going to see this just spread not only North Africa, not just the Middle East, but we are going to see this go to Asia and maybe even Latin America.
LEMON: That's just going to ask you my next question. Diplomatically, again, this is unprecedented. So diplomatically, do you have the U.N. coming together, and so what happens with countries who are allies and who are in support of each other now? How do they look at each other and try to figure out what to do next, Gordon?
CHANG: Well, I think Daniel Ortega in Nicaragua has basically said I'm not using force against protesters. And Hugo Chavez just last week gave in to a student hunger strike that had spread throughout the country. So I think we're going to see the strong men sort of step back because they realize they need to appease the crowds, but I actually don't think it's going to work because when you appease the crowds, the crowds want more.
VAUSE: And a quick question for Reza. A brutal assessment here, Reza. When all the dust settles, will the world be better off for all of this? Will the region be better off for all of this unrest?
ASLAN: Most definitely.
Look, we have been begging for political reform in this region for 50 years, while also at the same time treating most of the Middle East as our personal gas station.
The one thing that George Bush got right is that if you give people an opportunity to have some stake in the political future, then that is good for moderation. It actually attacks extremism.
There's a reason why no one on the streets of Egypt or Yemen or in Tunisia or elsewhere is talking about al Qaeda. There are no American flags being burned. There's no Israeli flags being burned. Political participation has the power to moderate radical tendencies. That's what we're seeing. That's good for the future of the region. It's good for the future of the world.
VAUSE: OK. Reza Aslan there and Gordon Chang, some interesting thoughts. Thank you both.
LEMON: I'm Don Lemon at the CNN World Headquarters in Atlanta. Thank you for watching.
VAUSE: And I'm John Vause. Stay with CNN no matter where you are for the latest development on the unrest in Libya and other nations in the Middle East. Thanks for watching. Good night.
