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How Middle East Instability Affects U.S. Economy and Security; Timeline of Middle East Uprisings; What to Expect from Obama's Mideast Speech
Aired May 19, 2011 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN ANCHOR: Live from Studio 7, I'm Suzanne Malveaux.
Want to get you up to speed for Thursday, May 19th.
President Obama on revolution in the Arab world and the opportunities now that bin Laden is gone. The president's going to speak at the State Department. That's about 40 minutes from now.
We're taking a look at some live pictures we are showing you there. The flag set up, the podium set up. Waiting for the president to be speaking. That will be happening momentarily.
Now, of course, we're taking a look at how these events a world away impact your security, your wallets, your standing, our standing in the world. We've got a few details ahead of the speech we want to tell you about.
The president is expected to say that the post-bin Laden era is a time to reject terror and extremist views that drive it. The president is going to emphasize that the United States doesn't take a one-size-fits-all approach to change in the region, and he's going to announce $2 billion in aid to help Egyptian democracy take root.
Al Qaeda released an audio recording to jihadist Web Sites today, a tape it says is Osama bin Laden speaking just days before his death. CNN cannot verify the recording's authenticity. Now, the speaker expresses support for the revolutionary change in the Arab world.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): Tunisia had the first glory. And with the speed of light, the knights of Egypt were inspired by the free Tunisians and a mighty revolution started. And what a revolution. A revolution destiny for all Egypt and to the rest of the United Muslim nation if they all hold fast by the rope of God.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Former IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn will ask a New York judge to release him on bail. That's happening today. He is offering $1 million cash, also to be confined at home with an electronic monitor, and he'll give up his U.N. travel documents. The attorney for the woman that Strauss-Kahn is charged with sexually assaulting says the prospect of bail is upsetting.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JEFFREY SHAPIRO, LAWYER FOR ALLEGED VICTIM: She's very concerned about her security. She's very concerned about what has happened and what this man is capable of. And the fact that he would be free I'm sure would be something that she'll be very alarmed about.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Strauss-Kahn has resigned from the IMF. In a letter to the IMF board, he insists he did not commit a crime.
Well, the Mississippi River is topping out at an all-time high today at Vicksburg. Forecasters say that the river will remain at crest until Saturday. The Mississippi, at Vicksburg, is a foot over the 1927 record. The worst of flooding stretches up the Yazoo River, which empties into the Mississippi near Vicksburg.
Well, this is home video of one of the two confirmed tornadoes that struck northern Maryland. The National Weather Service says this twister near Hagerstown stayed on the ground for two miles. Top winds hit 90 to 100 miles an hour. Fortunately, no one was hurt, but roofs took a beating, trees were snapped, as well as uprooted.
Doctors in Houston will update the condition of Congresswoman Gabby Giffords very shortly. Neurosurgeons replaced a section of her skull on Wednesday. Giffords' husband, in an interview with TBS (ph) today from the space station, says the surgery went really, really well. Mark Kelly says his wife will return to therapy today.
Well, President Obama, responding to the revolutionary change that is sweeping across the Middle East and North Africa. That speech, happening this hour. Our coverage is focusing on how these dramatic changes a world away can affect your daily life.
So we are talking about security from Iran and its nuclear ambitions to the war on terror. What happens in the Middle East influences how safe we are in this country. We're also focusing on the economy. Events in the oil-producing region affect the price you pay for gas. And instability in the Middle East can rattle financial markets as well.
Plus, we're going to examine how developments in the region affect America's standing in the world.
Want to discuss dollars and cents of it all. President Obama offering financial aid now as an incentive for democratic reform in the Arab world. So he plans to propose new economic help for Egypt and Tunisia.
We know it's going to include $1 billion in loan guarantees and another billion in debt forgiveness to help create jobs in Egypt. Plus, he's going to also provide world financial institutions -- prod them to help those two countries. Well, the president needs to convince Americans that it benefits us to send more financial aid to the countries during these tough economic times here at home.
Our Alison Kosik joins us live from the New York Stock Exchange.
And Alison, explain to us why Arab instability directly affects us here economically, here in the United States.
ALISON KOSIK, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Because it has a lot on do with volatility, Suzanne, and that's kind of a four-letter word here on Wall Street.
You know, the markets, they don't like volatility and instability. Think about it. Earlier this year, uprisings in Egypt and Libya and Bahrain caused some temporary jolts here on Wall Street.
And you talk to traders, and they say, you know what? By sending money to the Arab world, the U.S. is buying stability. They say it's really money well spent, an investment in national security.
You look at Pakistan, the country, they say, would be even more of a threat if we hadn't sent aid there over the years. And the U.S. sent billions of dollars to the Mubarak government in Egypt in the name of stability. And guess what? No wars between Egypt and Israel since 1973.
So you talk to traders here, they are in the stability camp -- Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: And Alison, everyone knows that the big U.S. interest in the Middle East is clearly about the oil. So how does what happened over there in the Middle East affect how much we pay for gas here?
KOSIK: Oh, sure. You know what, Suzanne? Anyone who has filled up their car knows the answer to that.
You know, you take a look at what oil prices have done so far this year, prices jumping following those outbreaks of unrest in Egypt and Libya. You know, some of those biggest spikes in oil prices this year came when there was fear of protests spreading to Saudi Arabia. That's the number two exporter of oil to the U.S.
So you think gas prices are high now, Suzanne? Watch what happens if there's ever a supply disruption in Saudi Arabia. You'll see those gas prices go through the roof -- Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: All right. Keeping a close eye on that as well. Thank you very much, Alison. Appreciate it.
Here's a rundown of some of the stories ahead in our CNN NEWSROOM special coverage of President Obama's speech on the Middle East.
It started in Tunisia. It quickly spread to other countries in North Africa, as well as the Middle East. We're going to look back at how the Arab uprisings evolved.
Also, why is a popular protest called the Arab Spring? We're going to tell you why.
And, plus, pushing for peace in the Middle East. What is the difference this time around with this American president?
Also ahead, what do people in Yemen and Libya want to hear from President Obama?
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MOHAMMED JAMJOOM, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Mohammed Jamjoom, in Kabul.
In Yemen, hundreds of thousands of protesters have been coming out into the streets for months with one simple demand -- that President Ali Abdullah Saleh step down. Members of the Youth Revolutionary Movement I'm spoken with say they need to hear President Obama specifically recognize their cause, to show them that he understands that what's going on in Yemen isn't just a political crisis, it's a revolution. And they say that while they're glad President Obama has condemned the violence they've been facing, they would also like to see him impose sanctions against President Saleh the way he imposed sanctions against Syrian president Bashar al-Assad.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SARA SIDNER, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Sara Sidner, in downtown Benghazi.
The people here in the eastern part of the country that we've been able to speak with are telling us that they're pretty happy so far with Obama's policy on Libya. What they would like to though hear from him during his speech is three things.
They would like to hear that he would be willing to help fund the opposition, that he would be willing to help train the rebels and arm the rebels. Those three things.
Now, when it comes to the Arab world as a whole, they say the best way for Mr. Obama to try to make that relationship better is that he needs to fully address the Palestinian/Israeli conflict.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MALVEAUX: In his speech, President Obama will discuss how the killing of bin Laden was an important development in the fight against terrorism. But that is just one aspect of how Middle East developments are affecting U.S. security.
We want to bring in our own Fareed Zakaria, host of CNN's "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS."
Fareed, thanks for joining us here.
You're in Cairo, the belly of the beast, some would say, where Egyptians toppled their government.
Are we any safer because of it now?
FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS": Well, we're certainly safer in the sense that we are dealing with an Arab world that is much less unstable in the long run. There is going to be short-run instability.
There are going to be a lot of hiccups, and this is a roller- coaster ride. But the path that Arab societies are on now is one that will ensure a great deal more fundamental stability.
The problem with dictatorships is that they seem stable, but that a short-run phenomenon. At the end of the day, problems accumulate, tensions accumulate, and repression accumulates. And finally, it bursts, as it did right behind me in Tahrir Square.
MALVEAUX: Fareed, we know that President Obama was adamant, really committed to pressing the reset button with the Middle East. It was one of his major goals in the very beginning of his administration.
Here's how he laid it out, as you know, back in 2009, his speech in Cairo.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I've come here to Cairo to seek a new beginning between the United States and Muslims around the world, one based on mutual interests and mutual respect, and one based upon the truth that America and Islam are not exclusive and need not be in competition.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: So, Fareed, he wanted to fundamentally change the way the United States related it to the Middle East. He wanted to restore U.S. credibility in the world, our standing in the world, and to longer be seen as what some people saw as President Bush, a warmonger.
Does the Arab world, do you think, see President Obama differently than President Bush?
ZAKARIA: You know, it's interesting. I think that the Arab world, from what I can sense -- and this is a vast generalization, but it's based on talking at a lot of people and also looking at the opinion polls very carefully -- the Arab world does like President Obama a lot more than most recent presidents. It's particularly true in some areas and less true in others. But, his approval ratings, as it were, have not moved up much, because at the end of the day, they seem to distinguish between the person, Barack Obama, whom they admire and empathize with, and the president of the United States, the post he holds. And there, they feel that American policies are still not where they would like them to be.
But I do think that the issue of an Arab/Israeli peace, of the plight of the Palestinians, these are all secondary to what is the overriding issue for most people here in Egypt, and I think across the Arab world, which is the fate of their own societies. You've heard me say before this is really not us, this is about them. And you see that more clearly in Egypt than anywhere else.
There is a great deal of fear in Egypt that the revolution has not been completed, that after having protested and successfully brought down Hosni Mubarak, the military is still in power. Military courts still operate. Martial law still rates. And there is a great deal of unhappiness in Egypt about the fact that they launched and succeeded within the spectacular revolution, but they seem to be stuck with the same regime.
So what I think they're going to be looking for Barack Obama is the kind of recognition that this revolution has just begun and that it will still take a lot of work and perhaps a lot of American support to make sure that the revolution is completed.
MALVEAUX: Fareed, thank you very much for your perspective. Obviously, you'll be sticking around after the president's speech and some post-analysis afterwards. We appreciate it.
We want to talk about this. It's an ongoing historic movement really of the people, as Fareed had mentioned, flooding across borders and cultures. Major implications for America's security, as well as our economy.
In that way, the Middle East uprisings do affect all of us. Many say it began with the incredible sacrifice of a single frustrated citizen.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
(CHANTING)
MALVEAUX (voice-over): Starting with Tunisia, where an unemployed graduate student sets himself on fire after a city inspector confiscates his unlicensed fruit court and then allegedly slaps him. His death sparks unprecedented fury and protests against the government, forcing Tunisia's longtime president to flee.
In Algeria, riots break out over rising food prices and a housing crisis.
In Yemen, students take to the streets.
Emboldened by its neighbors in the region, Egypt erupts in rallies against the president.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We will die for our freedom!
MALVEAUX: Egypt's uprising sends shock waves through the Middle East. Demonstrations spread like wildfire from Bahrain to Yemen, to Qatar and Jordan.
It's the beginning of a sea change in the Arab world. Iran sees a renewal of the Green Revolution of 2009. And in Libya, the eastern town of Benghazi sees its first clashes, setting into motion what will soon become a civil war.
And then, for protesters, a breakthrough in Egypt. After decades in power, Mubarak caves to public pressure, quietly resigning. Fireworks light the sky over Tahrir Square.
In other Middle East and North African countries, protests either fail to catch on or are put down by government forces. For others, the violence intensifies.
MOAMMAR GADHAFI, LIBYAN LEADER (through translator): We will be victorious in this fight. We will not give up.
MALVEAUX: The United Nations, led by American forces, sends airstrikes into Libya, but the standoff continues.
Meanwhile, Syria descends into chaos. Protests take hold in the south and are met with chilling retaliation from the government. Hundreds there are killed. Now the United States is issuing sanctions in an attempt to end the violence.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
MALVEAUX: The protests and violence are still spreading. On Sunday, thousands of Palestinians descended on the Israeli border to protest the anniversary of Israel's creation. At least a dozen people were killed.
The event highlights a key problem in the Obama administration that it now faces, striking a balance between Arab protesters demanding change and supporting Israel, a major ally that finds itself surrounded by this movement.
So where does the term "Arab Spring" even come from? Carl Azuz is opening up the history books to trace the name and the movement back to its revolutionary roots.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MALVEAUX: The movement has spread from North Africa to the Middle East, and it's made up of unique countries as well as cultures. But for simplicity's sake, it's being called the "Arab Spring."
Carl Azuz joins us to discuss the significance and historical context of the name.
So, Carl, thanks for being with us. "Arab Spring," where does that come from?
CARL AZUZ, CNN STUDENT NEWS: You know, it's a good question and it's a simple question. Unfortunately, the answer is a little more complex.
For "Arab Spring," some people point to the spring of nations. These were European revolutions, or, I should say, European revolts back in 1848. And that is when a bunch of countries from Sicily to Austria rebelled against the monarchies. They were unsuccessful, so a difference between the Arab Spring and the so-called Spring of Nations.
Others look to the European revolutions of 1989. Now, those were largely successful, where you saw a lot of democratic revolutions as countries broke away from the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union, the Berlin Wall both fell. But differences there, because not all of these countries have achieved sort of democracies in their protests.
I think the best way to sort of define the protests and upheaval of 2011 that we're seeing right now, this Arab Spring, would probably best be when we're discussing these protests, revolutions and political policy changes that have affected several Middle Eastern and North African nations.
MALVEAUX: So is it fair to identify all of these in the same way?
AZUZ: Not entirely. There are definitely some similarities between them.
There are a lot of people here. I mean, one of the things they have in common are the methods of protests. You have people turning out en masse calling for change.
The media, there are similarities there, too, because Facebook, Twitter, social media have played a role in this.
And public turnout. At the end of the day, it's not just media, it's people coming out and speaking against their government, demanding that change.
The differences here include the change sought. In Egypt and Tunisia, we had revolutions. Some want that. Others just want legal rights, improved living conditions.
Government responses have been different, of course, as you outlined in your last piece, where we had revolutions in some countries. In others, we had government crackdowns and a civil war.
And then the potential outcomes. Is democracy likely in all of these? Those are unanswered questions in this Arab Spring -- Suzanne.
MALVEAUX: All right, Carl. Thanks for breaking it down for us. Appreciate it.
AZUZ: Thank you. MALVEAUX: Clearly, President Obama is looking to support the revolutionary fever that is sweeping the Arab word. He's going to spell out his plan live in just a couple of minutes.
I'd like to bring in my colleague Wolf Blitzer, host of "THE SITUATION ROOM."
Wolf, great to see you.
I'm dying to talk to you because both of us covered Presidents Clinton and Bush. And I remember during the last six months, at least of the Bush presidency, he sent out Secretary Rice. There was blitz of diplomacy, pledging he'd get this Middle East peace done before he left office. It never happened.
What do we think about now? What do you think is different this time around with this president in achieving peace between Israelis and Palestinians?
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And you remember, Suzanne, that last- minute campaign to get some sort of Arab/Israeli peace deal in the final months of the Bush administration. There was a similar effort in the final months of the Clinton administration back in Sharm el- Sheikh and elsewhere back in 2000. So it's not unusual.
Right now it doesn't look like there are a whole lot of partners out there. There's not a lot of trust.
The Israelis did have a relationship with Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian Authority, but now that Hamas has forged this agreement with Fatah to have this Palestinian unity, the Israelis don't trust them by any means. The U.S., as you know, Suzanne, regards Hamas as a terrorist organization. So do the Israelis, the European Union.
So it doesn't look like the president, if he's trying to revive the Israeli/Palestinian peace process right now, there's not a whole lot of confidence that they have in him, Israelis and Palestinians. And probably, he doesn't have a whole lot of confidence in them either.
So I assume we're going to hear some generic, some general phrases from the president, but there's not going to be a specific presidential plan, if you will, a blueprint for peace in the Middle East.
MALVEAUX: And Wolf, you bring up a very good point about Hamas. I want to play a bit of an interview, a discussion that I had with former president Jimmy Carter just a couple weeks ago, who believes that Hamas has to be at the negotiating table if this is going to work.
Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JAMES CARTER, FMR. PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There have been atrocities committed by Hamas and also by Fatah. And, of course, on occasion, a lot of Palestinians are killed who are not combatants. So things happen in a case of serious disagreement, but this new agreement, in my opinion, is a major step forward. It can bring ultimately what I've wanted for the past more than 30 years, and that is peace in Israel.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MALVEAUX: Wolf, how do you suppose the Obama administration gets beyond this hurdle, that Hamas is now in these discussions? You have President Obama meeting with Israeli's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, tomorrow at the White House. Neither one of them are going to go for this.
BLITZER: The only way they would go for it and the only way they would agree with former president Jimmy Carter is if Hamas did what the U.S., the Israelis, the Europeans, others have been telling them, asking them to do for a long time, accept Israel's right to exist, renounce terrorism, and, at the same time, accept all previous Israeli/Palestinian agreements. So far, Hamas hasn't been willing to do that, and I suspect the Israelis aren't going to go along with any negotiations with a Palestinian group that includes Hamas.
The U.S. has been a little bit on the fence on that. We might get a little bit more specific information from President Obama today.
I do suspect, though, as much as the Palestinians and the Israelis are interested in what the president has to say as far as their issue is concerned, most of the president's speech will deal with the so-called Arab Spring, what you were talking about, the democracy movement in North Africa and the Middle East, and how it affects the United States. So it's probably going to be a much more -- a much broader speech, if you will.
MALVEAUX: This might be somewhat of a difficult question for folks to figure out, but what do you think the killing of bin Laden -- how do you think that factors into the president's ability to move forward now, to make any kind of change or influence in the Middle East? Do you think it really has a great impact?
BLITZER: I think it strengthens his credibility. Certainly here at home it strengthens his credibility on national security issues.
But I think as far as North Africa and the Middle East, and South Asia, for that matter, I think they see him as a player, much more someone who delivers the goods, someone who acts, not only talks. And so I suspect they have to take the president of the United States a lot more serious now. They may be disappointed in some of the things he's said and done, but they'll take him more seriously.
MALVEAUX: OK. All right, Wolf. Looking forward to co-anchoring in just a few minutes.
Everything you need to know before the president's big speech. President Obama, live from the State Department, in just a few minutes talking about the U.S. and the shifting landscape in the Arab world. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MALVEAUX: President Obama responds to the revolutionary changes sweeping the Middle East. He delivers a major speech just minutes from now. I'm Suzanne Malveaux and this is CNN NEWSROOM special coverage of the president's address.
HALA GORANI, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: I'm Hala Gorani. We want to welcome our viewers from around the world watching us on CNN International. The president will touch on all the major flash points in the Middle East and north Africa, or at least some of them for sure.
BLITZER: No doubt about that. I'm Wolf Blitzer here in Washington. President Obama will also discuss how the United States could help the region through economic and political reform. He'll talk about efforts to try to revive the Israeli/Palestinian peace process at the same time.
MALVEAUX: CNN is committing its vast global resources to this potentially pivotal speech and reaction from the Arab world, as well. Our senior international correspondent Nic Robertson is live in Tunisia. Jerusalem bureau chief Kevin Flower standing by in Jerusalem. Live from Libya, CNN's Sara Sidner. And Stan Grant is in Pakistan. Plus, we have Egyptian journalist Mona Eltahawy. She is live from Chicago.
GORANI: Well, people across the Arab world are paying close attention because this is President Obama's first comprehensive response to the revolts jolting the region. Their expectations are another matter. We'll get to that in a moment. Plus, his speech follows the U.S. killing of terrorist mastermind Osama bin Laden, of course.
BLITZER: And we're also bringing to bear CNN's extensive political resources throughout the country. Our chief national correspondent John King is here in Washington, along with our senior political analyst Gloria Borger. Also want to welcome our senior White House correspondent Ed Henry. He's standing by live, over at the White House. We're live at the State Department with our foreign affairs correspondent Jill Dougherty. They are all part of the Best Political Team on Television.
Hugely important speech today. You know, Suzanne, people are going to be watching not only closely here in the United States, but throughout north Africa, the Middle East and around the world.
MALVEAUX: Absolutely. It's one of those stories, Wolf, that all of us have been covering for months now, even years as you go from one administration to the next, all of them trying to establish Middle East peace, a process that has been elusive for many of these leaders. The drama has been unfolding here in the Middle East, as well, and all of us can give perspective on how this has gone about.
And Hala, you've been in the region for so long covering this. And I remember the last time we were at the White House together, the president wanted to bring forward Middle East peace and you had all the major players there, including Mubarak.
GORANI: Yes.
MALVEAUX: And you -- we were talking about this and you said people just didn't believe it was possible, even with the major players there.
GORANI: Right. Final status negotiations by September of 2011 with it just a few months away. I think even then the expectations were so low, it didn't seem they could go any lower.
Well, given the response we've receive order Twitter, as well, Suzanne, and all around the world, the bloggers, the analysts talking about what their expectations are of the speech, they are low. It's going to be difficult for the president to disappoint because will is so little expectation attached to this address.
MALVEAUX: Why do you suppose that is the case?
GORANI: I think because after the Cairo 2009 speech and the expectation that the United States through President Obama and his leadership in the United States would if affect change externally. They didn't see that happen.
What they saw happen over the last six to eight months is that when change came, it came through them, through the people in the streets, Suzanne. So I think the Arab mind, the Arab mindset has changed. It's gone from help us from the outside, so we can do from the inside. And that's a huge difference.
MALVEAUX: Wolf, you mentioned before about credibility. You talked about creditability and how the president had, you believe, more presented ability because Osama bin Laden has been killed, something that was very tangible in the war on terror.
Do you think the president has better standing, stronger standing with those in the Arab world now? BLITZER: I think he does, because everyone around the world respects power, if full, they respect credibility. Here the president of the United States had the guts to go and do what had been tried for almost 10 years. He succeeded. So I think on that level his credibility will be going up.
The question is whether or not he will be consistent. He called for President Mubarak to step down from Egypt. He did. He called for Gadhafi to step down from Libya. We see what's happening there. Right now he's stopping short of calling on President Bashar al Assad in Syria to step down so there will be accusations of hypocrisy coming from those in the democracy movement throughout north Africa and the Middle East. This will be one of the major issue he's going to have to deal with.
MALVEAUX: And this was a ground swell, really a grassroots effort. A lot of people are wondering why should we even pay attention to what President Obama has to say? Why -- has the U.S. lost some of its strength, some of its power, because for the longest time, the Obama administration, the Bush administration, the Clinton administration, they were bolstering dictators, propping up dictators. They were not the ones who actually caused or even sighted (ph) this revolution that we see.
GORANI: And the point that Wolf made is probably the most important one as far as the Middle East is concerned. It's if you are going to have a coherent strategy towards the Middle East, it can only treat all countries the same way.
So many of the people reacting giving us their ideas of what to anticipate ahead of this speech are saying, well, if you mention Egypt, if you mention Libya, if you even mention Syria, that's all fine. But if you leave out Bahrain, if you leave out Yemen, if you leave out Saudi Arabia, then what weight can we give any of the words included in this speech?
And that's a very important sort of -- I think a very important thing that the president is going to have to address and a very fine line he's going to have to walk.
MALVEAUX: All very important questions. We're going to be watching that and obviously the reaction, not only here, but in the Arab world and around the world, as well.
We're going to have more after this quick break. We are following President Obama's remarks regarding the uprisings and the U.S. vision in the Middle East.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
MALVEAUX: This is CNN NEWSROOM special coverage of President Obama's speech on the Middle East.
I'm Suzanne Malveaux.
GORANI: I'm Hala Gorani. We want to welcome our viewers watching around the world on CNN International.
BLITZER: And I'm Wolf Blitzer here in Washington. We're only a few minutes away from the President's speech addressing all the dramatic changes in the Middle East and north Africa.
Let's bring in our senior White House correspondent Ed Henry.
Ed, we know the Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will introduce the president. We're standing by for that introduction.
But set the scene for us.
ED HENRY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Wolf, this is a huge speech for this president. Aides say he'll go on for about 45 minutes because he has a lot of ground to cover.
You'll remember two years ago in June he was in Cairo, he spoke to the Muslim world and was trying a new beginning, if you will. Not a lot of that vision has been realized two years later. He promised then, for example, to close down the military prison at Guantanamo. That's still not closed even though the president himself has called that a recruiting tool for al Qaeda.
On the other hand, of course, in recent weeks, he led the mission that ended up killing Osama bin Laden and he wants to -- aides say -- use this speech as a way to offer an alternative vision to people in the Muslim world, an alternative vision from al Qaeda and other terror groups.
He also wants to talk about Libya. He wants to talk about Syria. He wants to talk about the Israeli/Palestinian peace process. That's why it's going to take 45 minutes. But that' also underlines the challenge for this president to try and take a step back, his aides say, after everyone's had a chance to take a breath, if you will, and take in what's really happened in the Arab spring and then wrap all those other issues together.
That is an awful lot that the president has on his plate. And that's why, I don't think anyone should come out of this thinking that he's going to solve the Mideast peace process or figure out what's next in Syria. But instead, what he wants to do after months of taking criticism for not weighing in enough and maybe not being consistent enough in his approach in the Mideast, to finally layout what the U.S. vision is.
One key point specifically, he will talk a lot about, aides say, is an economic vision. That there was not just a thirst for human rights in the Arab spring, but a thirst, frankly, for jobs, for economic opportunity and that there are millions of young Arabs who are now crying out saying that they're tired of the corrupt systems they're dealing with where oil rich nations have been swallowing up the oil profits and not sharing it with their own people.
And so he's going to talk about $2 billion in aid to Egypt, Tunisia, loan guarantees, loan forgiveness, but that's just a small, small step, obviously. And for years and years of effort that it's going to take to nurture some of these young, emerging democracies, Wolf.
BLITZER: You had an interesting tweet today, Ed, about one of the chief speechwriters for the president, where he was writing this speech. Tell
our viewers.
H: Well, you know, it was Friday night and I happened to bump into the president's national security speechwriter Ben Rhodes. He was at a Starbucks just about a block from the White House. I saw him with his laptop and said, "Are you writing the Middle East speech?" And he kind of laughed and said yes.
This is a person, Ben Rhodes looked pretty tired at that moment late on Friday night writing this speech. This national security team, as you know in recent weeks was caught up in the Osama bin Laden mission, keeping that quiet behind the scenes and then completing that mission. Now they're quickly turning to this. President next week has a big trip to Europe, including the G-8 Summit. So there's no rest for this national security team and this is a big, big moment for this president, Wolf.
BLITZER: Ed, standby.
Let's bring in Gloria Borger and John King.
Gloria, is this a time the American public wants to hear a billion here, a billion there, more aid going to Egypt and Tunisia?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, and you heard Ed Henry talk about the unemployed in the Middle East. You can already hear Republicans saying what about the unemployed in the United States?
But I think more broadly, what the president is trying to do is explain to the American people as you head into this election what he's achieved. He's tried to reach out to the Muslim world, he's tried to fight terrorism and tried to deal with this peace process which has been elusive. So, yes there are going to be issues.
Why are you giving $2 billion abroad? We need that money here for our jobs. But, in the larger sense, he's also go to prove that there's been a method to what he's trying to do over there because people have seen these things unfold piecemeal, he's got to make some sense of it.
BLITZER: Because a lot of folks, as you know here in Washington, John will say, you know, the oil rich Arab countries, whether Saudi Arabia or Kuwait, or United Arab Emirate, Qatar, they've got billions and billions -- why don't they invest in Egypt and Tunisia? Why does the United States always have to do it?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, the president will make the case that he wants them to help invest more, he wants them to spend their money but the United States has to be part of it. For the United States to have a stake in the region, it has to be a player in the region.
But you touched earlier on the consistency problem the president faces. And, you know, we will probably find reason to criticize him today so let's start by saying he has a near impossible challenge here. There are so many different and unique separate challenges within a larger region.
Is he going to say -- he will say the United States, of course, supports democratic movements around the world, and particularly in the Middle East and north Africa. He will say that as a broad principle. However, you will hear, as I heard yesterday from a 24- year-old Egyptian blogger, well then why aren't you standing with us now, why are you giving and I had to the Egyptian military? They're starting to throw us in prison. They're not moving forward on the elections in the way we would like it. How can you say you're for democracy but then support the Bahrainian regime when it cracks down on the majority of its population, the Shia population?
So the president has the broad principle that the United States is for democracy, however, he has to say we also have strategic interests and if the Bahraini government fell, that would give Iran influence just across a 14 bridge across from Saudi Arabia.
So the broad principles often comes at direct collision with your daily strategic challenges. Whether it's the oil we get from Saudi Arabia, whether it's the naval base in Bahrain, and whether as you just mentioned now, whether they are finally -- whether this administration will be the U.S. administration that finally abandons the thought that maybe Assad will come around, maybe he will be a reformer, maybe all that time in London good make him pro-western.
Right now they're coming to the conclusion that has been a mirage and it's time to move on.
BLITZER: We'll be listening very, very closely to all of these developments. All right. We're only a few months away. The Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will introduce the President of the United States at the State Department.
We'll have extensive live coverage. You'll hear the speeches. Stand by. Our coverage continues right after this.
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MALVEAUX: Want to bring in our Jill Dougherty at the State Department to talk a little more, putting this into perspective.
Obviously, the timing of this, Jill, is very significant, the fact that the Obama administration was able to capture and kill bin Laden, something that the Bush administration tried but failed to do. What do you think -- what kind of influence do you think that has in the way that people see this administration, and setting the stage for there in the Arab world?
JILL DOUGHERTY, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, I think what's notable is, obviously, he's going to talk about it, but he can't have any triumphalism about it. He can't say, you know, I went into the Situation Room and I made this very difficult decision. That time has passed.
And, in fact, you can kind of argue that Osama bin Laden broadly speaking doesn't make that much difference in this -- compared to what's really going on, and that is the Arab Spring and the implications of that.
I mean, this is a region that he's talking about 400 million people. The population, majority population, under 30. A lot of them very unemployed, very high unemployment. So the economic issues are crucial.
And that's why we heard, last night, the administration coming out with these programs to help Egypt and Tunisia, because they realize that even in those two countries, the ones that have gone the furthest in this Arab Spring, they could slip back in it a heartbeat if they don't have the jobs people need. So this is very, very important.
And the world has changed. You know, this is -- you almost say that this administration is trying to catch the tail of the tiger on these uprisings that have taken place in the region.
MALVEAUX: Jill, I want to ask you a question as well as Hala as well, cause she is here.
One of the things that we keep talking about is the money, the investments here. And obviously, the administration was trying to buy stability in the region. And for a while it worked, but we still don't know if it will be stable in Egypt. You have Christians and Muslims fighting in Tahrir Square, you've got Egypt moving closer to Iran and to Hamas.
How do we know -- I mean, I know it's important the economic impact, but how do we know this is really going to bring about pro- American or pro-Democracy change?
GORANI: Well, I think that you don't know and you never know. But there is a realization coming from the United States, you felt that over the last few months, that in order for there to be political stability in this region, there has to be economic opportunity for the tens of millions of young people under the age of 30 that have not benefitted from the fruit of economic growth in Egypt because of the levels of corruption that have only afforded opportunity to those part of the system and close to the regime.
And I think -- and, by the way, the 2 billion, 3 billon, even if you go up to 5 billion or 10 billion, that is still a drop in the bucket. This region needs fundamental economic reform and it needs the United States to facilitate that transition rather than, as far as the Arabs are concerned, for the United States to it impose anything from the outside.
MALVEAUX: OK, Hala Gorani, thank you very much. We're going to have more after this very quick break. We're going to be live in Cairo.
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MALVEAUX: Hello, welcome back. I'm Suzanne Malveaux. Welcome to our CNN NEWSROOM special coverage of President Obama's speech on the Middle East to be delivered just moments away from the State Department.
BLITZER: We're standing by. We understand the president's getting ready to leave the White House, running a little bit late. Supposed to have left by now. He'll be going over to the State Department, it is a very, very short drive. He'll be introduced by the secretary of state, and then we'll have a chance to assess what he's saying -- Hala.
GORANI: And I'm Hala Gorani. Welcome to our viewers watching us on CNN USA, of course, and around the world.
Let's take you to Cairo, Cairo where, on January 25th, the movement started that led to the downfall of one of the longest lasting dictators in the Arab world, Hosni Mubarak. Fred Pleitgen is standing by there in the Egyptian capital with more on what ordinary Egyptians are saying about this speech that is going to start in the next few minutes in Washington.
What have people been telling you? I see you're at a cafe, Fred.
FREDRIK PLEITGEN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: I am at a cafe in (AUDIO GAP). People here are basically saying that they are very much looking forward to hearing this speech. It certainly is the talk of the town, if you will, here in Cairo.
And there's really a mixed bag of expectations, Hala. People I'm speaking to, some of them are saying that they want President Obama to essentially leave Egypt alone and to fend for itself. Because many, as you know, believe a revolution here in Egypt happened not because of what America was doing but in spite of what America was doing, because they've certainly believed for a very long time America was propping up (AUDIO GAP) Hosni Mubarak.
One of the things that make people talk about, Hala, is that (AUDIO GAP) this country does need economic help. That's one thing I hear time and again from people, that they are looking to hear what kind of economic incentives there's going to be. Of course, joblessness still is a very big issue here. (AUDIO GAP)
(AUDIO GAP) -- those are the concrete things that people expect. By and large, it doesn't appear as though people are expecting to hear very much of anything new here.
GORANI: All right, there we have it, Frederick Pleitgen. Apologies there for our technical issues there with our live signal in Zamalek in Cairo there.
Our Fred Pleitgen, Suzanne, talking about expectations that are low. So it's going to be interesting to see after the speech what these people he spoke to will tell him.
MALVEAUX: We were talking in the break I live in Zamalek for about a year or so. And, you know, the feeling has always been pro- American, love Americans but don't like U.S. policy, particularly don't like U.S. policy towards Israel. And that's always been, as you know, covering the region for so many years, the dichotomy that exists in Egypt and the Middle East.
GORANI: And I was going to say, the other dichotomy is we like Barack Obama as an individual and as a leader, and there's a huge difference that ordinary people make in the Middle East make between the man and the policies of the country. That's another important also differentiating sort of -- it is another differentiator as far as Arabs and Middle Easterners.
MALVEAUX: And you can tell when you cover President Obama and you cover President Bush, the reception could not be any different. Very, very different.
GORANI: Any different, absolutely.
MALVEAUX: I want to bring in our Jill Dougherty at the State Department who has a little bit of color behind the scenes there.
Jill, tell us -- give us a scene setter, if you will.
DOUGHERTY: Well, you know, over at the State Department, which is kind of fitting because, after all, this is international policy, and the room really is filled with all sorts of people. You have members of Congress, you have the diplomatic core from all sorts of countries that have an interest in this, and when you look at the Arab Spring, you see how many countries are involved.
There are business leaders and that's important, too, because they are going to be calling, this administration, on business leaders to help out with some of these countries, Egypt and Tunisia in particular, to help them with economic programs and job programs, et cetera.
You have think tanks, of course, those talking heads that we talk to, but they often know quite a lot. And then you have nongovernmental organizations. They are important, too, because many of them deal with the type of this -- we call it civil society, helping people learn how to vote, to hold elections properly. And all of that, remember, in this region, some places it was more developed than others, let's say Egypt, for example, but when you get to places like Yemen or Libya, Libya's a great example of no structure, no civil society. Nothing beneath that leader Moammar Gadhafi.
So the room is filled with a lot of people who are going to be listening very carefully because they probably will have a role to play in this.
MALVEAUX: And, Jill, I understand Secretary Clinton is going to be playing a role as well, she's going to be introducing the president. And I know that she had some pretty tough words for Syria this past week or so.
Is there a sense, from where you sit, that there's a sense of frustration that they cannot get the Syrian government to change its behavior, that you still have these protesters essentially in the streets who are being killed, despite these warnings that are coming from the Obama administration?
DOUGHERTY: Absolutely, Suzanne. In fact, I was talking with not only U.S. officials but officials from other countries, and they all express this real frustration. Because what they say is, over the past weeks, Assad, the president, Bashar Al-Assad, has been saying some things.
He's been saying that he was going to reform. He ended -- he said he was going to end the emergency rule. But when you looked at what was going on in the streets -- and often, because journalists can't get in there, it's YouTube video, and very violent, people dying in the streets. So it is a complete contradiction. His words from what the reality was on the ground.
And I think you'd have to say there was a point this week that they -- where they were simply fed up. That the promises weren't good enough, that they realize, they say, that Assad was not going to do anything. He was not going to reform and all the warnings were not any good.
So the warning they got yesterday was to list him, these economic sanctions, and essentially say, do it or that's it.
MALVEAUX: OK, Jill Dougherty, thank you very much.
I want to bring it back to our colleague, Wolf Blitzer, in Washington -- Wolf.
BLITZER: It's intriguing, Suzanne, you'll appreciate this, Ed Henry over at White House will as well, that George Mitchell, the special enjoy at least until a few days ago, he's in the audience over there at the State Department, he's getting ready to listen to the president of the United States.
A lot of us read his little brief, terse resignation letter, Ed, and assumed he was just throwing his hands up in the air and saying, you know what, this is not happening, I'm out of here.
What are White House officials saying?
ED HENRY, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is an intriguing bit, you're absolutely right. And some people inside and outside the administration close to the situation have been telling me as they read the tea leaves that George Mitchell was one of the people inside the administration calling for some sort of an Obama plan. And the idea being that the president in this speech or other speeches should lay out a specific detailed approach to getting the Mideast peace process going again.
White House, thus far, has rejected that idea, obviously. And so, if you read the tea leaves, the fact that George Mitchell essentially ran out last Friday right before this speech, it certainly suggests that this president is not going to get too detailed in this speech today at the State Department about how to move forward in the Mideast peace process.
Instead, as we now learned the president's just about -- just starting to depart the White House. He's a few minutes late, as you noted -- it certainly suggests that George Mitchell did not win that argument for him to leave and instead, the president's going to speak much more generally about the Mideast peace process, leave some of the details to tomorrow when he welcomes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House.
We should also say, Sunday, here in Washington, the president will be giving another speech on the Mideast to AIPAC, the big American-Israeli group here in the United States. And then on Monday, Prime Minister Netanyahu will be on Capitol Hill delivering a speech to Congress.
So there's going to be a flurry of activity even after today's speech, but I wouldn't anticipate too much detail about the peace process from this president -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Ed, I want to bring Suzanne into this conversation as well, but it's intriguing to me they decided he would speak at this time. It's now approaching noon, exactly noon on the East Coast of the United States. It's 5:00 p.m. in Tunis, 6:00 p.m. in Cairo, 7:00 p.m. in Jerusalem.
So these are times when people are near a television, they can watch. So they specifically timed this address so that people throughout Europe, the Middle East, North Africa would be at home after work, getting ready to watch the president of the United States.
That's one of the key audiences, Suzanne, that the president has right now. He's got an American audience he's got to deal with. He's getting ready for his re-election campaign, as we all know, but he wants to address the Muslim world, the Arab world, the world at large.
MALVEAUX: Absolutely, Wolf. That's a very good point, that perception and the president's perception in the Middle East, among the Arab world, is very important.
I have a question for you, because I know that you have interviewed many times Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He's going to be at the White House tomorrow, as Ed had mentioned.
We have seen these two leaders, Obama and Netanyahu, struggle from time to time. I'll never forget that visit. It was just last year when Netanyahu was left in the Roosevelt Room because there was an impasse over Israeli settlements, and the president went to the residence. And since then, it seems as if they have made amends here.
But what is your take on this relationship, this kind of back- and-forth, this gamesmanship that we've seen between these very powerful men and what that means for Middle East peace?
BLITZER: They will both try to make it look as positive as possible. They both have their respective political interests to make it look like they have a good, strong relationship. But let's not be under any illusions. They don't.
I don't think Prime Minister Netanyahu trusts President Obama. I don't think President Obama trusts Benjamin Netanyahu. There's a lot of bad blood there.
There's a lot of issues that have come to the fore over the past couple of years that has sort of worried both of these officials different reasons. The whole issue of the president early on calling for a freeze on Israeli settlements, saying there can't be any real negotiations until the Israeli freeze settlement activities in the West Bank and in Easter Jerusalem, for that matter.
And I think this has caused a lot of heartburn in Prime Minister Netanyahu's government and, at the same time, within the president's inner circle. There's a lot of heartburn as well.
So they will try to make it look like the relationship is good, but I don't think it's as good as it could be, or obviously should be. Both sides would have to make major concessions right now. And politically speaking, I'm not sure either is going to be doing much.
MALVEAUX: Hala, why don't you weigh in?
GORANI: Well, I find interesting that the Middle East and international reaction with regards to what President Obama might or might not say about the Israeli/Palestinian peace process and trying to restart it. We've heard a lot from commentators who have said, look, we cannot at this point hear the same rhetoric from the president, Suzanne. We can't hear -- and I've heard this word used a lot -- "platitudes" regarding the peace process.
We need fundamentally concrete initiatives that address the core issues, not just we need to restart the peace process. But we need to talk about the settlements, we need to talk about Jerusalem, we need to talk about the right of return for refugees. And this needs to be done concretely in a way that is mapped out. We've heard that a lot.
So I think if we don't hear that from the president in this speech today -- and as Ed Henry was mentioning, we're not expecting specifics today in this speech regarding the Israeli/Palestinian peace process. But at the very least, tomorrow, after the meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu, then there will again be skepticism as to this process, just as there was in September of 2010 when we covered the peace summit at the White House.
MALVEAUX: But Hala, how much of this is really an excuse for some of the Arab leaders? And we've heard that from the Bush administration, from the Obama administration, saying, you know what? Every single time you lay out this, you want us to solve the problem here, and it's used as an excuse not to address their own economic problems, their own former dictatorships, their political problems at home.
GORANI: No. I think as far as the Israeli/Palestinian peace process is concerned, it's a little bit different.
The United States is seen as potentially an entity that can effect change. It is perceived in the Middle East as working in the interest of Israel before it works in the interest of the Palestinians. And I think that's the big difference here, that the United States is seen as being able to effect change in this process in a way that it isn't in other parts of the Middle East. And that's the big difference there, I believe.
MALVEAUX: All right. Hala, thank you very much.
Wolf or Ed, do you want to add?
BLITZER: Yes. I just want to bring in Gloria and John King for a moment on this whole issue on this relationship that the president has. Because, Gloria, as you know, domestic American politics is having a significant role right now in what the president can or cannot say as far as Israel and the Palestinians are concerned.
BORGER: Right. Barack Obama, let me remind you -- although I'm sure you all know -- won 80 percent of the Jewish vote last time around. They've been very skeptical of Barack Obama because of the pressure on the settlement issue, as you pointed out earlier.
Israel is feeling very risk-averse right now because the diplomatic world has kind of just blown up around them, and I think they want to go slowly. And so as we see this tension within the administration about how specific to get from the Hillary Clinton camp, who wants the administration to be more specific, versus the national security camp, who says, you know what, now is not the right time, which is what Netanyahu feel, it really is very much a matter of domestic politics.
KING: And he is guided by history, Wolf. You remember late in the Clinton administration, we were covering the Camp David Accords, the closest this has ever come.
There was a peace process then. The Israelis were talking to the Palestinians. We use the term "peace process" a lot.
Now, there is no process. They're not talking. The conversations now are about trying to restart the process.
And Mr. Netanyahu says if he gives too much, his government will collapse. Mr. Abbas says he can't give too much, he's just now trying to renegotiate this power-sharing, this relationship with Hamas after a long split between Fatah and Hamas. How will that work out? We don't know.
So there's no American magic wand here. The president can't say make peace. And he knows President Bush tried in the end.
President, for years, said, I'm not going to get deeply involved in this, because look how hard Bill Clinton tried, and he couldn't get it done in the end. So there's been a frustration in Washington across administrations.
And if Mr. Netanyahu won't give and Mr. Abbas can't give or won't give, why should the president invest himself?
But imagine the president saying today, why don't we start by saying let's get roughly to the 1967 borders and then sit at the table and negotiate? That's where they were at Camp David at the end of the Clinton days.
And then Prime Minister Barak at the time said, I can't give that land back. We have some settlements here, but if you let me keep that, I will give you this little piece here.
That's what they were trying to carve out. They got so close, Wolf, that it collapsed. Now the president's having the conversations with so much else happening in the region as well.
BORGER: And that would be kind of the middle ground, wouldn't it, between sort of just being very vague in general and being very specific? At least you say, OK, here's the starting point.
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BLITZER: We'll hear if he says -- Suzanne and Hala, we'll hear if the president of the United States refers to those 1967 lines that the Israelis have. That will be a significant statement, if in fact he does, although that has been the longstanding U.S. policy going back basically to 1967.
Suzanne, we're only a few minutes away. The president is over at the State Department now. The secretary of state will introduce him, and then we'll get to hear what he actually has to say.
MALVEAUX: We want to welcome everyone to this CNN NEWSROOM special.
We are awaiting the president's comments, and we're getting a two-minute warning now, we are told. He's going to be speaking at the State Department.
Also want to welcome those around the world who are watching and waiting for his comments. We are watching across the globe.
We have correspondents, teams, throughout the world. Fred Pleitgen is in Cairo. Sara Sidner, who is in Benghazi, Libya. We have Kevin Flower in Jerusalem. And, of course, Ed Henry, who's at the White House, Jill Dougherty at the State Department.
Ed, if you could set the scene for us before the president speaks.
HENRY: Well, Suzanne, as you know, this is a key moment for this president to kind of reset U.S. policy in the Mideast.
He faced a lot of criticism in recent months for not getting his hands dirty enough in the process, not pushing earlier, for example, ,for Hosni Mubarak to step down in Egypt. He eventually did it, but he got criticism for not moving in sooner.
He has said throughout in recent months that he believes there is a one-size-fits-all policy to every single nation in the Mideast and North Africa, number one. And number two, that he did not want the U.S. dictating policy. This had to come from the people up as part of the Arab Spring. But his aides say he has been thinking about this for many weeks now and waiting for a moment in the process to take a step back, take stock of where we are right now, and give some specifics on how the U.S. may be able to help foster some democracies in the region.
And so, number one, you had the pivotal moment of Osama bin Laden being killed. The president will talk about that. And number two, he wants to talk about providing some economic aid to the region since, let's not forget that a lot of these popular protests started not just with a frustration about human rights, but a frustration about vast, vast economic problems in the region as well.
MALVEAUX: And Ed, we know that this was very important, a high priority when he first took office. Tell us a little bit more about this speech. Kind of resetting 2.0?
Oh, here's Hillary Clinton, who's making her way to the podium to introduce the president.
Let's take a listen.
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