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Libyan Rebels Hold Most of Tripoli While Moammar Gadhafi's Whereabouts are Still Unknown; President Obama Makes Comments on Situation in Libya; Rebels Fight for Tripoli; Rebels Hold Most of Tripoli; Analysts Speculate on State of Libyan Oil Production

Aired August 22, 2011 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

RANDI KAYE, CNN ANCHOR: Some leading lawmakers are already going public with their take on the crisis in Libya. We want to bring in our Wolf Blitzer to talk just a little bit about -- oh, you know what? Let's get to Kate Bolduan first. She is live in Washington. A couple of Republicans in particular are talking -- Senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, John McCain of Arizona. What are they saying, Kate?

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Interesting. Hey, there, Randi. Well, Senators McCain and Graham -- they've been among the more vocal U.S. lawmakers. They've been calling for greater U.S. involvement in Libya really kind of throughout this conflict. Both are also key members on military and foreign policy matters.

And in a joint statement, McCain and Graham called an end to the Gadhafi regime a victory for the Libyan people, and as they put it, a victory for the broader cause of freedom in the Middle East and throughout the world. They also applaud the efforts of the Libyan people and the international community for reaching this point.

But note what we've also heard from many other officials. There's a recognition that this is only a step -- meaning if the Gadhafi regime falls -- and that there remains a long road ahead.

Listen here to Senator McCain on CBS.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: It's going to be a big challenge forming a new government, uniting a country that's never known democracy. We've seen the difficulties with other countries that have made this transition.

But we will be rid of a guy that has the blood of Americans on his hands. We will be rid of a guy who has practiced the worst kind of brutalities. And now it's going to be up to us and the Europeans.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: And while other lawmakers like Senator Joe Lieberman -- they've released statements saying that the U.S. should really be proud of the role they've played. McCain and Graham, also, Randi, criticized the Obama administration in their statement for not doing more to bring the conflict to an end sooner. In their view, they said that they believe that the president was leading from behind, and that's one issue that they said where he has failed. The Obama administration at large has failed here.

KAYE: All right. Kate Bolduan, thank you.

Let's bring in now our Wolf Blitzer, who is standing by as we wait for the president to make some comments regarding Libya.

Wolf, what do you expect the president will say or should say?

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: I think he's going to probably say on camera what he said in that written statement last night, very similar. I don't think he's going to go much further than we heard last night; namely, that this is a turning point, obviously, it looks like it's the end of Gadhafi, Gadhafi's regime, the end of his rule in Libya, that he should surrender, it's over for Gadhafi.

I think he's going to note the unified NATO stance, how the allies have all gotten together. I would be surprised if he goes a lot further than that, unless he's going to release some new information that we're not familiar with. I think basically it will be a rewrite of what he said on paper in that written statement last night, but we'll see. We'll know soon enough.

And it's interesting the way he's doing it. He's, as you know, on vacation in Martha's Vineyard, Randi. And he's going to go before cameras.

We'll get that videotape -- all the networks have a pool arrangement -- about 20 minutes or so after he gives it. But we will hear it live, the audio only, as you know. And I think our viewers are going to hear what the president has to say live, and then we'll see him make that statement about 15 or 20 minutes later, once we feed -- once the pool feeds in that actual statement.

KAYE: You know, we spoke with Dan Lothian from the vineyard just a few minutes ago. And he was saying that the administration was already taking questions about whether or not the president feels vindicated. They didn't really seem to exactly answer that question. The spokesman didn't at least.

Do you think that we'll get any sense of vindication that yes, I told you so, this was the right move?

BLITZER: I don't think he's going to gloat or anything like that, because it's still a very, very uncertain situation. Yes, it looks like Gadhafi is done. His sons have been arrested. There will be a new regime. There will be a transition to this new regime in Libya. But no one knows for sure what it's going to look like in six days or in six months or in six years.

So I suspect there's not going to be any "Mission Accomplished" type of statement, or along those lines, although he will praise NATO, he will praise some of the Arab countries that have helped the Libyan rebels, specifically. I don't know if I'll get into details, but Qatar, for example, the United Arab Emirates, they've been very helpful in trying to get rid of Gadhafi.

They were -- early on, they recognized the rebels as the legitimate government of Libya, long before the United States did that. So I suspect he's going to show how the United Nations Security Council action, that resolution calling for the no-fly zone, all of the international cooperation played a significant role.

And if -- I don't know if he's going to do it, but I suspect he may say at the end, others in the region should be watching and listening carefully. And if he does say that, that will be a message to Bashar al-Assad of Syria. If you're in Damascus right now, and you're the leader of Syria, watching what's unfolding in Libya, you're obviously getting very, very nervous, because this Arab Spring has revolutionized, has been so dramatic in North Africa and the Middle East, that it's by no means over.

Look at Mubarak in Egypt, now Gadhafi in Libya. Bashar al-Assad has to ask himself, am I next? And there are a lot of protesters and demonstrators in Syria who are saying to him yes, you will be next, unless you step down yourself.

KAYE: Wolf, I know that you, along with many of us, have been watching the coverage from our Sara Sidner, who is there in Tripoli, doing a fantastic job on the ground, as you mentioned, putting herself in harm's way to bring us the story. We actually have her on the phone with us now.

Sara, can you set the scene for us where you are now and tell us what's happening?

SARA SIDNER, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Sure.

What we've been seeing in the last hour or so are rebels leaving the city. They're not leaving the city because they're fleeing. What they're doing is leaving -- they often go and have their evening meal, their Iftar meal after Ramadan. And then we will start in the evening time, as the sun sets, see them coming back into the city and regrouping.

We do know that there was a firefight today. What we do not know is whether or not that firefight is continuing, because we can no longer get close enough to it to hear the gunfire. But we did hear that a few hours back, gunfire near the city center.

The rebels are telling us that there were apparently snipers on some of those buildings. So they have not been able to clear the city.

There's a general sense of jubilation from the rebels, who are parading around in their cars, parading around, holding their guns, firing in the air. But generally speaking, they all agree that they do not have full control of the capital.

Some of them, to be quite honest, I think were standing around today just looking at each other, wondering, how did this happen so fast? Even the rebels themselves, surprised at how easily they were able to get in the city.

We came in from the west. So we're talking about those folks who came in from Zawiya and got into the city with little to no hassle over the past 24 hours.

They, themselves, told us, "We are really surprised that they we were able to get in." Now it's a matter of figuring out how they can try and secure each and every street, each and every neighborhood. And that's not so easy when you're talking about urban warfare. You just never know what's around the corner.

KAYE: And Sara, Wolf Blitzer is with us as well. I know that he has some questions for you -- Wolf.

BLITZER: Sara, you're doing an amazing job for us. Thank you so much. Just be careful over there.

But here's my question. This is what I'm hearing from my sources here in Washington, that Moammar Gadhafi almost certainly -- almost certainly is in Libya someplace.

They don't know where in Libya he is, but they think that if he had managed to get out of Libya to another country, whether Zimbabwe or Chad or Venezuela or South Africa or any other country, they think they would know that. The U.S. intelligence community would know it.

What is the best information that the rebels that you're with are getting about the whereabouts of Gadhafi?

SIDNER: They actually believe that he is in -- somewhere in Tripoli. They don't know if he's gone underground. There's a lot of rumors though, Wolf.

And you know this happens at a time like this, when there's general chaos basically in the city, with no one really in control. There are rumors going all over the place, rampant rumors.

But I think the general sense is that he is either in the city or somewhere very close to the city. And so everyone is a little bit tense about exactly where he is.

They were able, though, to start detaining people. And it's an interesting thing that happens here when you see these rebels come in. They have a group of them that often are responsible for starting to start sort of their own kind of justice system where they will detain certain people.

And one of the Gadhafi regime's -- the faces of the regime is, to some extent, one of the anchors of Libyan state TV, was arrested today. And so when you start hearing these arrests, you have Gadhafi's sons now arrested, you have this anchor. This is a woman who went on television and held a gun talking about, "I will die or you will die." And people very angry.

And it's an interesting thing to watch. A bit scary to watch, to be honest. Once they've detained someone from the regime, the residents and some of the rebels really want to get at them and make them suffer, because they feel like the regime has made them suffer so much. Anyone who represents the regime wants to see that person also suffer to some extent.

I can tell you that the rebels did have this woman inside of a room. They told us that she was fine, although we weren't able to see her. But there's a general sense that they were going to try to protect her, even though a lot of people on the outside wanted to get at her.

And I'm sure, I am absolutely certain, that if Moammar Gadhafi is in Tripoli, or anywhere that the rebels are in control, there's going to be a general sense from people that he needs to pay for his crimes right now. And so that could be a really, really ugly situation that you might see if the rebels end up finding him.

Certainly, it would be an interesting situation, but a tense situation, because you never are quite sure what will happen if they find him -- who finds him will be significant, and what they'll do with him, if they do end up finding him.

KAYE: All right.

Sara, Wolf, I'd also like to add to our discussion here -- we have William Cohen, the former U.S. defense secretary, joining us as well. Also CNN's Fareed Zakaria, and Ken Robinson, a 30-year veteran of U.S. Special Forces and military intelligence.

Secretary Cohen, let me go to you first here.

Is this what NATO envisioned, do you think, when it launched its mission to protect the civilians in Libya?

WILLIAM COHEN, FMR. DEFENSE SECRETARY: Well, there was always something of a mismatch between what NATO had declared its mission to be and the public statements by the leadership of both France and Britain, and also President Obama. Namely, that Gadhafi had to go.

So I think that that was more of a fig leaf to cover the naked truth that this had to be a mission to remove Gadhafi under the rubric of a mission to protect the rebels from being assaulted by Gadhafi himself. So I think NATO had this in mind. It was not able to express it because it would have contravened the U.N. Security Council resolution, it might have undermined the Arab League's resolution to support a no-fly zone.

KAYE: Wolf?

BLITZER: The whole notion of that no-fly zone, Mr. Secretary, obviously was very significant. But I suspect the aerial bombardment, the pounding of Libyan positions throughout these many months, played a much more significant role in destroying what remained of Gadhafi's forces and helping the rebels. Obviously, the rebels would be nowhere near Tripoli if NATO hadn't gotten involved. I assume that's your assessment as well.

COHEN: There is no question that the bombing campaign was what undermined Gadhafi's ability to continue to mount an assault against the rebels.

Once the president of the United States announced publicly that Gadhafi had to go, then it seems to me we had very little choice but to see to it that Gadhafi went. I had hoped at that point there would be an intensification of the bombing campaign so that this didn't drag on for months and longer, whereby Gadhafi would try to say let's have a peace agreement here, let's have a cease-fire, and let me stay in power, have my sons stay in power. That would have been a defeat for NATO and it would have been a defeat for the president.

So I think that playing a secondary role, a supportive role, I don't have difficulty with that. As a matter of fact, you may recall Secretary Gates said Libya was not in our vital national security interests.

Once the president of France or the prime minister of Britain declared that they were going to support the rebels, and the Arab League signed on to the no-fly zone, then I think the president had very little choice. But I do believe he was right in having a leading from behind as such, or having a supportive role rather than once again taking the lead, as he did in Iraq and Afghanistan, and to say that we're now going to take the lead in the third country, Arab country. I think it would have been counterproductive. So I think from that perspective, it was the right decision.

BLITZER: Let me just follow up with one other question, Randi, and we'll move on to some of the other analysts who are with us.

But, Mr. Secretary, Mike Rogers, the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, he issued a statement today saying his number priority right now is whatever stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction, specifically poisonous gas, mustard gas, that the Libyans have -- and he says U.S. intelligence knows that they have stockpiles along those lines -- what if anything can be done to secure those kinds of stockpiles?

COHEN: Well, to the extent that we know where they are, obviously we would want to work with our NATO allies, and to communicate directly with the rebels whom we have supported to make an accounting of those and turn those over. That would be something I think the rebels would be most interested in doing.

There's still the issue, Wolf, and you have pointed this out, we are not sure at this point who the rebels really are. You may recall that once we got into this, the question was raised, who they are, what's their philosophy, are they supported by al Qaeda units, et cetera?

And we said, well, we're putting CIA personnel on the ground to try and find out who they might be. No boots on the ground, but CIA hush puppies, so to speak. And so we've been trying to gather information, intelligence, about where they're likely to go. We don't know at this point.

We took a big leap of faith by supporting them and saying Gadhafi was so bad, that anyone who was opposing him had to be better than what he was. But we still don't know how it will unfold.

We hope it will turn into a democratic government over a period of time, with institutions being built with some assistance from countries who are willing to do so, and the Libyan people willing to invite us to participate. But we have a long way to go before we see how this is going to finally formalize itself.

BLITZER: All right. Very good.

Randi, go ahead.

KAYE: OK. I want to bring in Fareed Zakaria, host of "FAREED ZAKARIA: GPS," and editor-at-large at "TIME" magazine.

Fareed, let me ask you. I mean, is this the end for Gadhafi as you see it? And if so, what does Libya look like if and when Gadhafi falls?

FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA: GPS": Well, it's unquestionably the end for Gadhafi. He may -- whatever happens to him personally, whether he stays in Tripoli, whether he escapes, whether he's tried, the regime has lost control. The regime has lost a monopoly of force, even in Tripoli. Remember, large parts of the country were already under rebel control.

So now you confront, you're right, the big question of, what a post-Gadhafi Libya looks like. My guess is that what we're going to see is something somewhat similar to what we saw in Iraq in the sense that we will be surprised at how little there is in this country, in this oil-rich country.

I remember when I went to Iraq, the thing that struck you most was this was one of the richest petroleum-rich countries in the world, and it looked like Bangladesh -- a very poor third-world country. Libya, I think, has some of the similar characteristics. So, very limited civil society, very limited infrastructure, very limited sense of a kind of national state that has provided for its people, very strong tribes, obviously, the historical divide between the east and the west.

And from this all, they have to create some kind of workable, political system. It's a daunting challenge.

It is actually one more reason why I think Secretary Cohen was right that it was actually quite wise for President Obama to have a supportive rather than a leading role here. We have enough on our plate in trying to rebuild Iraq and build Afghanistan into modern, functioning nation states in the first place. If we had taken the lead role here, if we had paid the price, borne all the burdens, we would have inherited whatever a post-Gadhafi Libya will look like.

Right now, this will necessarily be a Libyan operation, a Libyan effort. There will be a lot of international help which we should very much be part of. But we didn't break it, and so we don't have to buy it.

KAYE: Fareed, if you can, just stay with us for a few more minutes.

We want to keep, in fact, everybody here with us, the whole group, because we are waiting for the president. We should hear from him, we hope, in just a few more minutes.

So keep it here, and we'll continue this discussion right after a very quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KAYE: And welcome back once again to the battle for Tripoli. I'm Randi Kaye.

I'm joined by my co-anchor for my special coverage here, Wolf Blitzer, joining us from D.C. We also have along with us Fareed Zakaria, who is the host of "FAREED ZAKARIA: GPS" and the editor-at- large for "TIME" magazine. And we also are joined by William Cohen, former U.S. defense secretary, and Ken Robinson, a veteran of U.S. Special Forces.

Fareed, if I could, let me pick up with you as we wait for the president, who is expected to speak here in just a few minutes on Libya.

If we can just pick up on what we were talking about, Libyans haven't had a voice here, really for 42 years. They have no experience with democracy at all.

Is this something that they can learn?

ZAKARIA: You know, I think that large numbers of people have not had experience with democracy. It doesn't necessarily mean that they can't learn.

It means it's going to be hard, because what happens in the absence of democratic traditions, democratic experience, the rule of law in civil society, which are probably more important, people revert to their oldest associations. So that would mean tribes, that would mean ethnicity, that would mean sectarianism. And that is traditionally what tends to happen in these situations.

You saw it in Iraq, where there was a reversion to Shia, Sunni and Kurdish identities. You see it in Afghanistan. So, my guess is you will see a lot more of the tribes and tribal affiliations in Libya.

The key effort should be as broad and inclusive a national government as possible. This is, I think, the one lesson of Iraq and Afghanistan. Do not exclude those who lose. Do not exclude the old elite. Try to bring everybody in.

KAYE: OK. Fareed, I'm so sorry to interrupt you, but the president is speaking right now. So let's listen.

(JOINED IN PROGRESS)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I spoke to Prime Minister Cameron about the extraordinary events taking place there.

The situation is still very fluid. There remains a degree of uncertainty and there are still regime elements who pose a threat. But this much is clear -- the Gadhafi regime is coming to an end, and the future of Libya is in the hands of its people.

In just six months, the 42-year reign of Moammar Gadhafi has unraveled. Early this year, we were inspired by the peaceful protests that broke out across Libya. This basic and joyful longing for human freedom echoed the voices that we had heard all across the region, from Tunis to Cairo.

In the face of these protests, the Gadhafi regime responded with brutal crackdowns. Civilians were murdered in the streets, a campaign of violence was launched against the Libyan people. Gadhafi threatened to hunt peaceful protesters down like rats.

As his forces advanced across the country, there existed the potential for wholesale massacres of innocent civilians. In the face of this aggression, the international community took action.

The United States helped shape a U.N. Security Council resolution that mandated the protection of Libyan civilians. An unprecedented coalition was formed that included the United States, our NATO partners, and Arab nations. And in March, the international community launched a military operation to save lives and stop Gadhafi's forces in their tracks.

In the early days of this intervention, the United States provided the bulk of the firepower, and then our friends and allies stepped forward. The Transitional National Council established itself as a credible representative of the Libyan people. And the United States, together with our European allies and friends across the region, recognized the TNC as the legitimate governing authority in Libya.

Gadhafi was cut off from arms and cash, and his forces were steadily degraded. From Benghazi to Misrata to the western mountains, the Libyan opposition courageously confronted the regime and the tide turned in their favor.

Over the last several days, the situation in Libya has reached a tipping point, as the opposition increased its coordination from east to west, took town after town, and the people of Tripoli rose up to claim their freedom. For over four decades, Libyan people had lived under the rule of a tyrant who denied them their most basic human rights. Now the celebrations that we've seen in the streets of Libya shows that the pursuit of human dignity is far stronger than any dictator.

I want to emphasize that this is not over yet. As the regime collapses, there's still fierce fighting in some areas. And we have reports of regime elements threatening to continue fighting. Although it's clear that Gadhafi's rule is over, he still has the opportunity to reduce further bloodshed by explicitly relinquishing power to the people of Libya and calling for those forces that continue to fight to lay down their arms for the sake of Libya.

As we move forward from this pivotal phase, the opposition should continue to take important steps to bring about a transition that is peaceful, inclusive, and just. As the leadership of the TNC has made clear, the rights of all Libyans must be respected.

True justice will not come from reprisals and violence. It will come from reconciliation and a Libya that allows its citizens to determine their own destiny.

In that effort, the United States will be a friend and a partner. We will join with allies and partners to continue the work of safeguarding the people of Libya. As remaining regime elements menace part of the country, I have directed my team to be in close contact with NATO, as well as the United Nations, to determine other steps that we can take. To deal with the humanitarian impact, we're working to ensure that critical supplies reach those in need, particularly those who have been wounded.

Secretary Clinton spoke today with her counterparts from leading nations of the coalition on all these matters, and I've directed Ambassador Susan Rice to request that the U.N. secretary-general use next month's General Assembly to support this important transition.

For many months, the TNC has been working with the international community to prepare for a post-Gadhafi Libya. As those efforts proceed, our diplomats will work with the TNC as they ensure that the institutions of the Libyan state are protected. And we will support them with the assets of the Gadhafi regime that were frozen earlier this year. Above all, we will call for an inclusive transition that leads to a democratic Libya.

As we move forward, we should also recognize the extraordinary work that has already been done.

To the American people, these events have particular resonance. Gadhafi's regime has murdered scores of American citizens in acts of terror in the past. Today, we remember the lives of those who were taken in those acts of terror and stand in solidarity with their families.

We also pay tribute to Admiral Sam Lockly (ph) and all of the men and women in uniform who have saved so many lives over the last several months, including our brave pilots. They've executed their mission with skill and extraordinary bravery, and all of this was done without putting a single U.S. troop on the ground.

To our friends and allies, the Libyan intervention demonstrates what the international community can achieve when we stand together as one. Although the efforts in Libya are not yet over, NATO has once more proven that it is the most capable alliance in the world and that its strength comes from both its firepower and the power of our democratic ideals.

And the Arab members of our coalition have stepped up and shown what can be achieved when we act together as equal partners. Their actions sent a powerful message about the unity of our effort and our support for the future of Libya.

Finally, the Libyan people. Your courage and character have been unbreakable in the face of a tyrant. An ocean divides us, but we are joined in the basic human longing for freedom, for justice, and for dignity. Your revolution is your own, and your sacrifices have been extraordinary.

Now the Libya that you deserve is within your reach. Going forward, we will stay in close coordination with the TNC to support that outcome. And though there will be huge challenges ahead, the extraordinary events in Libya remind us that fear can give way to hope, and that the power of people striving for freedom can bring about a brighter day.

Thank you very much.

KAYE: All right. And there you have it. You've been listening to President Obama making a brief statement from his vacation on Martha's Vineyard talking about Libya.

Let's get back to our team here as we discuss this.

Wolf Blitzer, joining me now as co-anchor on our special coverage here of the battle for Tripoli. We also have Fareed Zakaria with us from CNN; William Cohen, former U.S. defense secretary; also Ken Robinson, the veteran of U.S. Special Forces.

Let me ask you, Mr. Secretary, first, and we'll get to the others in just a moment. But do you think we heard what we needed to hear there? When the president talks about a support role for the future of Libya, what might that role and what should that role look like, do you think?

COHEN: Well, first, I thought it was a very good speech. It was concise. It was modest. And I think it was inspirational, as far as the people of Libya in hearing that message.

In terms of what we should do, I think the question should not be, what should we do now for Libya? But rather, asking the Libyan people, what would you like us to do? What help can we give you? But allow them to ask us for what kind of assistance that they would like to see.

I think a danger is, when we sit back and say, well, now we have to do the following types of things to make in a functioning democracy, I think we have to step back a bit and be more in the receptive mode, asking the Libyan people instead, how can we help you? And then respond.

Right now we can help them, I suppose. Wolf raised the excellent question before. What about their weapons of mass destruction that have been accumulated over the years? Do we know that they exist? Do we know where they are? Can they help us find them and secure them?

Number two, how can we help you maintain stability? Can we continue to help you attack the strongholds that Gadhafi forces still have? We're prepared to do that as well. We'll provide intelligence, we'll provide drones that are armed, that can take out tanks to the extent they can be used. How can we help you maintain stability?

Third, economically, what short-term cash needs do you need? How can we help you in calling upon UAE, Qatar, other countries in the region that have been so helpful? How can they help with their cash supply in the short term.

And then long-term, what can we do militarily to help train and equip your forces fort future so you have a secure country. All of that I think is possible. Much will depend upon where do the Libyan people intend to go?

What kind of a country are they going to have, secular or sectarian or a democratic system or one in which Fareed Zakaria mentioned, more tribally oriented. All of these questions will have to be sorted out.

But I think in the meantime, what we have to do is call this day the day for the Libyan people, praise them for their courage, their sacrifice and then ask them how we can help.

BLITZER: You know, Mr. Secretary, I was, I guess, maybe a bit taken back by the urgency of what the president expressed the concern over, namely, the potential for a lot of violence unfolding in Libya in the coming days and weeks.

He said, this is not yet over obviously. But he says as we move forward, he appealed for a transition that is peaceful, inclusive and just and then he went out of his way to also appeal for no reprisals and no violence and reconciliation.

But given the passions, given the hatred of Gadhafi of his sons, of his entire -- that entire regime, isn't it naive to think that that that's going to unfold. Right now, there's not going to be a whole wave of revenge killing and violence unfolding in Libya right now. I'm a little concerned about that. I suspect you are as well.

COHEN: That may very well take place. I think what we need is a Libyan Mandela.

BLITZER: I don't think there is one, though. There is no Libyan Mandela.

COHEN: A truth and reconciliation process whereby the recognition that the Libyan people can recognize what has taken place in Iraq, what has taken place in Afghanistan, how have they failed to carry out producing a democratic system that's unifying rather than divisive?

We need to have voices within the Arab community calling for truth and reconciliation rather than retribution. Whether that will take place remains to be seen. I think that's the message the president is sending fort.

Hopefully other Arab leaders will say the same thing and hopefully the Libyan people will see they have achieved their goal, on the verge of achieving their goal and now what they need to do to hold the country together is put aside the need and the cry for retribution, which is very strong to see that they can, in fact, produce a country rich in resource.

And with the help of international community will be beneficial for the people rather than simply resorting to old time religion so to speak and back to sectarian types of violence. That's a possibility. One we hope that will not take place.

BLITZER: It certainly is because the potential for violence is enormous. I heard that in the president's own remarks. Fareed, you know, at some point the rebels are going to capture Moammar Gadhafi.

By all accounts he's somewhere in Libya right now. No one knows obviously where he is, but he's probably in Libya someplace. If he would have escaped, I think the U.S. intelligence community would have picked up some indication whether he went to another country.

I'm told that most experts here believe he remains in Libya. Here's the question, Fareed. When they capture Moammar Gadhafi, the rebels, will they on the one head read him Miranda rights and arrest him and put him in prison or will they quickly kill him?

FAREED ZAKARIA, HOST, "FAREED ZAKARIA GPS": They do not have Miranda rights. I think, Wolf, it's the central question. It follows directly from the conversation you were having with Bill Cohen.

I think what's crucial is that we, the European community and other Arab states make sure the Libyans understand this will be perhaps the crucial test of whether or not they come across as trying to build a new Libya or to settle scores.

Of course, they will need to do some things that have the feeling of justice and retribution and things like that. But the manner in which they conduct themselves is going to send a very powerful signal to all Libyans.

Because remember, there were very important tribes that supported Gadhafi. It will send a signal that says, we are -- we're going to try to be fair and try to be inclusive. That's why Obama mentioned the word inclusive two or three times.

As you pointed out, the need that there aren't reprisals. What did we learn from Iraq and Afghanistan? In Iraq, by shutting out the Sunnis from power, we invited a civil war. In Afghanistan, the great concern the Pashton's had was that they had been shut out of power and that gave the Taliban an enormous boost.

If there's one lesson here, try to include everybody, including the losers. That's why Bill Cohen is exactly right. We need the spirit of Mandela. There might not be a Mandela, but there are many other countries that have not had Mandela that have managed some kind of national unity.

The symbolic issue here will be Gadhafi. So far the Libyan opposition has been quite generous in saying that they will give him safe passage. They will not kill him. You know, if they keep up with that spirit, what they do specifically is less important than the sense that they are trying to do this on the basis of justice and fairness rather than revenge and retribution.

BLITZER: Yes, that's a good point. Let me bring Ken Robinson into this conversation. Given the passions, what's going on in Libya right now, what do you think is going to happen, Ken?

KEN ROBINSON, CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER OF BROADBAND COMMUNICATIONS FROM NPP GLOBAL: Well, I agree very much with Secretary Cohen and what Fareed has said. The Libyans have demonstrated a sense of, they know what needs to happen next and that is a battle for legitimacy and a battle to be seen in the region as part of the community of nations.

The only way to do that right is what they've done so far, they've protected the sons. They've allegedly said that they will also protect Moammar Gadhafi. We do know that there will be looting. We do know that there will be a sense of unrest for a certain period of time.

But there are plans in place right now by the TNC to retain the police, to move police forces into the city, to try to establish governance very quickly. That's not something we did very well as Americans when we occupied Baghdad or when we occupied Kabul.

Both of which I participated in. I think that the tribes themselves of the TNC have that sense of what they don't want a repeat of. That is in Lawrence of Arabia's case, taking Damascus and losing it. Or in this case, now finally taking Tripoli and losing it, losing the war when they won a battle. The war is legitimacy.

KAYE: Ken, if I could follow-up with you just for a moment here. We know that the rebels and the National Transitional Council have created this blueprint because they wanted to avoid exactly what happened after the fall of Saddam Hussein. What do you think? We don't know what's in the blueprint. But what do you think it should include?

ROBINSON: Well, I think what it includes is exactly what's been urged by the president's message today. It's very consistent. The men in charge of the TNC at the very top, there has been shifts in power there, but for the most part, they're extremely educated men with a sense of history.

They recognize what's at stake. The people that did the fighting are not necessarily the people who would do the governing. The important thing is the message of inclusion, very rapidly establishing governance.

Establishing legitimacy for the new government as it takes place and also understanding how to define democracy if that is what's to happen. Remember, that democracy doesn't mean that Thomas Jefferson's hand is going to be on the document.

It may take a different form, but we'll pull together what works for them by them since this is their revolution as Secretary Cohen said.

KAYE: Wolf, you want to give us one quick final thought?

BLITZER: I think that these days are going to be critical right now in Libya because it could go in either direction. Everyone is hoping no one more so than the president, you heard it in his remarks, that there is a period of reconciliation and relative quiet in dealing with those forces loyal to Moammar Gadhafi.

But given some of the history, given some of the passions involved, the great fear is it's not necessarily going to go in that direction and the violence that we've seen in recent months could be a prelude to a lot more in the coming days.

But we'll have to watch it closely and see what happens. As the president says, the situation remains very fluid and there is a period of uncertainty that we're about to see. I think that's obvious.

KAYE: It certainly is. Wolf Blitzer, appreciate having you on with me today as well as Fareed Zakaria, former defense secretary William Cohen and Ken Robinson. It's a pleasure to have all of you a part of in very important discussion.

We will continue our coverage of Libya and the battle for Tripoli. We'll have other news for you as well right after a quick break.

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KAYE: As President Obama reminded us minutes ago, the situation in Libya is still very fluid right now, but Libyan rebels now control most of the capital of Tripoli, their success today simply amazing.

From a poorly armed and trained rag tag group to what they are now, a real fighting force on the verge of winning a stunning victory in a bloody civil war. Just who are the rebels and how were they able to push into the capital so easily?

CNN's Michael Holmes just returned from Libya where he spent two weeks with the rebels. He's here now to talk about this. What are your thoughts? Because I think a lot of people, even the rebels themselves are surprised by how quickly and somewhat easily they got into Tripoli.

MICHAEL HOLMES, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There was that stalemate going on from the east, wasn't there? You know, in Misrata and other places and there was a stalemate on the very western side too, but the key is where we were.

We were with the western mountain rebels in the mountains. Those guys had been waiting and waiting up on the mountains and then when they decided they wanted to go, they went. They took town after town after town.

They were very well-organized. They looked like a mad max army. I mean, some of the stuff and the weaponry how they were mounting it was crazy. They're the ones that push to the coast, got to the coast and led to this.

KAYE: But I think a lot of people are wondering how did they pull it together? Because they didn't have the weapons, they didn't enough NATO support. They had some gains, but then they kept pushed back. All of a sudden, there they were. But where do you think that came from? Just a real --

HOLMES: It was truly a popular uprising. What these guys had, they had their makeshift weapons. But the weapons they were capturing from Gadhafi forces are weapons raided from ammunitions depots they captured as they went along. You've seen the pictures. I put pictures up on the web too.

You've got pickup trucks with anti-aircraft guns mounted on the back. Rocket launchers mounted on the back. I think the most bizarre one I saw was the top of a tank, the firing mechanism and the top mount of it on the back of a pickup truck. These guys were firing tank shells.

There are a couple of pictures of the vehicles. This was in the battle on the second of three fronts they opened up. We were on the frontlines there and the rockets were going out and the anti- aircraft and Gadhafi forces were firing back as well. It was a very, very intense day for all of us, I can tell you.

KAYE: You were caught in the middle of battle with them.

HOLMES: We were right at the frontline of that one. Rebels lost eight guys that die that day and they had another 36 wounded. You can see one of the rockets taking off from that truck.

KAYE: Did you ever think and did they think that these guys could actually defeat Gadhafi's forces and do they actually believe, they're not calling this a victory yet, at least the leader of the rebels isn't until they get Gadhafi. But do they think that that will happen?

HOLMES: Yes, yes. These guys were full of confidence. In some ways, it was bravado as well. But that battle really convinced me that they knew what they were doing. They had command and control that was beyond their capabilities.

That guy there that you're looking at, he was a bulldozer driver, he was a commander in the battlefield. Another one of the commanders in the battlefield was an x-ray technician. This was truly a popular uprising.

There were students. There was a kid from Manchester, England that I met whose English was better than his Arabic. He was born and bred in England, 17-years-old. Two hours of training with an AK-47 and he's up the frontlines.

They did know what they were doing the closer they got in. They were on a steep learning curve and it paid off in the end.

KAYE: Do you think they can govern?

HOLMES: This is the big problem. What you've got there is a marriage of convenience. You know, Libya is a very tribal society. It's got some ethnic splits as well. The burb (ph), that's a whole other story you can go into as well. And so what they've done is they've come together in this marriage of convenience to combat a common enemy, and that is Gadhafi, of course.

Now that he's gone, what's going to happen? When they get in there and try to set up a government, is it going to work? All the old arguments, where we were in the western mountains, they're 20 kilometers apart. These are guys who would not have dinner together. That fella there was a teacher, one of the rebel commanders. They wouldn't have dinner together. Now they're expected to get along in a hurry and govern.

And at the same time, you've got all these weapons out there in essentially civilian hands.

KAYE: Right.

HOLMES: So if things do splinter, you have readymade local militias armed with very nasty weapons. So this could go a couple of ways. That's going to be the test in the next few days.

KAYE: Well, we're glad that you're back safely. Haven't seen you in the studio. Nice to have you back.

HOLMES: Good to see you too.

KAYE: Good to see you.

Well, the Gadhafi regime is on its last leg. How his possible ouster could impact the oil markets. We'll have it for you.

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KAYE: In today's "Taking the Lead," Libya was once the 17th largest oil producer in the world, and oil is key to its economy. With Moammar Gadhafi's regime crumbling, analysts are wondering when oil will be back to its full capacity and how this will it affect oil prices. But the state of the oil infrastructure remains uncertain, and unforeseen factors could interfere in resuming production. CNN's Christine Romans has much more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: After six months of civil war, already world markets wondering when Libya, once a proud oil producer, will be back on-line with oil for the world markets. It may seem crass to talk about economics when it is freedom that is being celebrated in the streets of Libya, but it is that money, that oil-richness that will help drive whatever comes next for this country. It is the engine of the Libyan economy. It is accounts for 95 percent of Libya's economy as the oil infrastructure.

So before the civil war, what was the situation with Libya and its oil supply? It was the 17th largest oil producer in the world. That was about two percent of world oil supply, about 1.8 million barrels of oil a day. Now, the U.S. consumed only 3 percent of Libya's oil exports. Most of its light sweet crude went to the European market. It's the kind of crude that's very easily refined to use in automobiles, for example. So it's a palatable kind of product for the European markets.

But what happens next? Remember, having that oil offline was big enough deal that even the president of the United States tapped into America's emergency supplies of oil because just that three percent that the U.S. consumes being offline was enough to make a difference.

You already have oil prices moving lower in this country, gasoline prices moving lower already in this country. This is something analysts say will help that situation. But it's unclear how long -- one year, three years, five years -- it could take for Libya to be up and running to pre-civil war levels of oil production.

Christine Romans, CNN, New York.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

KAYE: And the crisis in Libya, especially if Gadhafi is overthrown will have a definite impact on the U.S. and the upheaval in Syria as well. We'll talk with a Mideast expert and former ambassador in just two minutes. So keep it here.

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KAYE: Welcome back. Edward Djerejian is the founding director of the James Baker Institute for public policy at Rice University and a former ambassador to Syria and Israel. He joins us today from Houston. Ambassador, if you would, give us your prognosis if Gadhafi falls.

EDWARD DJEREJIAN, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO SYRIA: Well, if indeed Gadhafi does fall, I think there are some immediate and then long-term challenges, first to the Libyan people and the national transitional council in Libya. I think the challenge is then to the United States and the international community on how to face the post- Gadhafi era. And then I also think there are implications of the fall of Gadhafi and the rest of the Arab world and especially Syria.

On the first point, the immediate challenge for the national transitional council in Libya after Gadhafi goes is, one, to restore law and order, to establish an inclusive and just political process of transition in the country, which means getting a timeline for constitution for parliamentary elections, executive elections. That is very important.

And then critically, I think in your last segment you talked about Libyan oil and it important role is getting the Libyan economy going so it can produce jobs, especially for the young people. So those are the challenges that the Libyan people and the transitional council face in the first instance.

KAYE: When we talk about the rest of the world -- I'm sorry to interrupt you. I did want to ask you about Syria. When you look at President Bashar al Assad there struggling to hold on to power, what do you think he's thinking as he watches what's happening in Libya?

DJEREJIAN: Well, he and his regime have to be very disturbed not only by the Arab awakening and the impact it's already had on Syria and the popular unrest in Syria. But here is another dictator, who used force against his own people. And that is a similar context in Syria where the Syrian regime is using force and killing its own people to remain in power.

And with the fall of Gadhafi and his imminent demise, that establishes yet another precedent for the elimination of autocracies dictatorships in Arab world, which is sort of like for whom the bell tolls. That what's coming next will be Syria. So the psychological, political impact on Syria, which is becoming increasingly isolated in the Middle East, is very relevant.

But I think in terms of the challenges to us, the United States and the international community, I would hope that the United States will take a leading role in helping to bring together an international coalition of forces, the Europeans, NATO to help the Libyans in terms of humanitarian and stabilization of issues.

KAYE: All right, Ambassador Edward Djerejian, appreciate your time and your insight. Thank you very much.

CNN NEWSROOM will continue in just a moment with Brooke Baldwin after this quick break. If you missed the president's comments on Libya earlier this house, she will replay them for you. We'll be right back.

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