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Ukraine Situation Escalating; Storm Brewing in the U.S.

Aired March 02, 2014 - 16:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM. I'm Jim Sciutto, in today for Don Lemon.

And the crisis in Ukraine is ramping up now on a global scale. The situation is escalating even as key military leaders switches side to join pro Russia forces in Crimea. Ukraine's navy chief declaring his loyalty to Russia and disavowing Ukraine's new leaders just one day after he got the job. The navy chief is headquartered at a crucial port on Crimea's coast. Ukraine's leaders immediately suspended him and have replaced him.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's prime minister says Russia's military incursion into Crimea is in his words "a declaration of war." Right now there is a standoff at three military bases in the region. Pro Russian forces appeared to be blocking the bases and demanding Ukrainian troops give up their weapons. We'll speak to the reporter who took these incredible photos.

Pressure is also rising on the U.S. to respond to Russia's aggression. President Obama is meeting now with his national security team and will call U.S. allies later in the day. Secretary of state John Kerry says Russia's President Putin needs to immediately "roll it back in Crimea."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KERRY, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: I think all options are on the table. There's no question but that Russia needs to understand that this is serious. This is the time for diplomacy. Nobody wants this to spiral into a bad, worse direction.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Secretary Kerry also using the term invasion to describe Russian military (INAUDIBLE).

In Moscow, there were (INAUDIBLE) rallies today. About 27,000 people chanted in favor of Putin's moves inside Ukraine.

Protesters opposing Putin's military push also rally in Moscow. Police dragged some of them away as you're seeing there. We are covering every angle of the crisis. Senior international correspondent Ben Wedeman is in Crimea, correspondent, Ian Lee in Kiev and White House correspondent Michelle Kosinski is tracking political developments here in the U.S. at the White House. We're going to begin with you, Ben Wedeman, if we can to describe to us those photos that you took earlier today of Russian soldiers on the ground in Crimea around those bases there that are in such hot contention.

BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, what we saw about 20 kilometers south of there is that hundreds of soldiers in dark green camouflage uniforms, no insignia, they also have many vehicles there, no license plates have surrounded the base of the 36th Brigade of the Ukrainian army. They are not attempting to go inside. Meanwhile, inside there are many Ukrainian soldiers who say that they will not surrender to these forces outside which, of course, we all know are Russians.

They say they are going to fight to the death. No shots have been fired. The situation outside the based was relatively calm and peaceful but it was tense. There are civilians there as well, supporters and opponents of the Russian presence, but this is indicative of a situation we are seeing in three different locations here in the Crimea.

Now, we have just learned that the electricity has been cut to the main Ukrainian naval base here as well. So these forces that we presume are Russian came in on Friday and by Sunday it definitely seems that they are very much effectively in control of the situation here in Crimea.

SCIUTTO: Ben, you have been a lot of war zones, you look at those pictures there, the soldiers surrounding bases. You hear communication lines cut earlier in the week. Power lines as you described. I mean that sounds like an occupation. You have those confrontation soldier to soldier. You also hear private citizens in (INAUDIBLE) demonstrations. Are you seeing those happening as well? Are you seeing those emotions coming out in just the civilian population as well?

WEDEMAN: Certainly what we did see today outside the base was emotions sort of boiling up. But they haven't gotten to a point at least what we have seen of actually a physical altercation. They debate, they talk, they shout at one another. We saw for instance this afternoon an elderly gentleman, 66 years old, a former soldier, come up to the gates of the base with (INAUDIBLE) part of Russia and calling upon the Russian president Vladimir Putin to re-establish Russian authority here.

It's important to keep in mind more than 60 percent of the population are ethnically Russian. They do in fact support the Russian presence here. But then again there are about 25 percent ethnically Ukrainian not at all happy keeping a very low profile by and large because of the potential for trouble, the potential indeed for violence. But we haven't seen any actual violence today. But it is possible.

SCIUTTO: Key point there as you say, not exactly as clear cut as Russian leaders you're saying. There are still people who support the other side, support the government at Kiev. Thanks very much to our Ben Wedeman in Crimea right in the middle of where it's happening. Now, Ukraine's new leaders at the helm, only days now. Troops mobilized and at the ready if Russia steps over the line. Joining us from Kiev, Ukraine's capital city is CNN's Ian Lee. Ian, we're hearing of these steps today a military call up by the Ukrainians, placing their military on the highest alert possible. What are you hearing there and more importantly, what are you seeing on the ground as those steps are taken?

IAN LEE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim, we haven't seen anything in terms of military movement, troops in the streets or any military hardware. But what we're hearing is they're calling up the (INAUDIBLE) who has any military training is being called up and told to register or be prepared. But we also have more news coming out of Crimea, we just talked to a defense ministry spokesman who is in the Crimea and I want to add to what Ben said that the navel base in Crimea has been - the electricity has been cut off there. And that according to the spokesman that they're expecting an attack tonight.

Now that's coming from the spokesman himself saying that there's an expected attack at that naval headquarters in the Crimean naval headquarters. That definitely would be a major escalation of what we have seen so far. He also told us tonight at that naval base that there was - that guards saw suspicious movement near a fence close to a weapons depot and when they went to inspect that and to investigate that they shouted verbal warnings, they shot warning shots into the air and then a stun grenade was thrown at them. And they say it was the Russians who threw the stun grenade, two stun grenades, in fact and that injured a Ukrainian officer.

So this is definitely an escalation of what we have been seeing so far. We haven't seen any sort of attacks or violence, but according to the defense ministry spokesman who is in Crimea, this is what he says is going on and this is what they expect tonight. These are some very strong words, Jim.

SCIUTTO: Ian, I want to follow up on that because what you described there would indeed be quite an escalation. Power cut off to the plant, you are saying that there were warning shots fired, I think these will be the first shots fired with your (INAUDIBLE) what we believe are Russian troops have arrived on the ground and now a senior official in Kiev saying they're expecting an attack tonight.

Now, in light of that and also in light of the imbalance we know, the Ukrainian military budget is 1/18, I'm told of the Russian military budget. What preparations have you been told that Ukrainians are making to respond to that expected attempt they doing to respond to that?

LEE: Well, the Ukrainians are saying that all available funds are going toward preparing the military. And as you know, this is a country that is deep in debt. That is hurting. They need a $35 billion lifeline just to keep the country operating. So this is a very severe, a very critical moment where you're seeing all available funds that can be spared going towards preparing the military, like you said, their budget is far, smaller than the Russians. Their military equipment is not as advanced as the Russians and they just do not have the fire power across the board. So if it does escalate and turn into a shooting war, you know, there is no question the Russians would win that and the Ukrainians would lose. But there are some interesting things to point out.

And that is in the Crimea, you do have that minority, Qatar population there that is very, very much anti-Russian. They're very much pro the government here in the Ukraine and they are saying that if this sort of occupation of the Crimea takes place that they are ready to start an armed insurgency. So these are very strong words, very strong possibility, outcomes that could come about if there is a war.

SCIUTTO: No question. A reminder to our viewers that Crimea is not far from those area of Russia in the south, close to the Middle East where you have Muslim militants that Russians have been fighting for some time. Also, the origin of the family of the two men behind the Boston bombing here in the U.S..

Please stay close in what you're describing there about potential attack tonight. It's something we have to keep our eyes on and we'll keep our viewers updated.

Now as you can imagine, as these events unfold very quickly on the ground in Ukraine, President Obama has been staying on top of these fast moving developments all day.

We go now to our White House correspondent Michelle Kosinski. Michelle, we heard Secretary Kerry today spell out in more detail than we heard at this point the potential costs for Russia's military intervention, talking about the possibility of even expelling or suspending Russia from the G-8. Can you talk a bit more about the options that are on the table?

MICHELLE KOSINSKI, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, there are a number of diplomatic options. And you're right, lawmakers have been calling on the administration to really spell some things out. Kerry did that to some extent. We have seen the initial steps of the U.S., Canada, now the UK, saying "OK we are not going to participate in the preliminary meetings leading up to the G8 which will be held in Russia in June.

Today, John Kerry says that Russia's actions have not been the actions of a G-8 nation and what they should be. And if this persists, then other countries will pull out of the G8 all together, pull out of the meeting. That would be an embarrassing blow to Putin and the image that he has been trying to project to the world.

Kerry also spelled out that "yes, absolutely, sanctions are on the table." Things like the freezing of assets, travel bans that could be imposed on Putin's family or members of the administration and going beyond that, there could also potentially be trade sanctions. Just as Russia has been trying and trying to increase trade with the U.S. as its economy slows.

Going a step further too, as Kerry hinted at, Russia has worked so hard for membership at international organizations like the G-8, cooperation in NATO, the World Trade Organization, the U.S. and allies could work to remove Russia them from those. And that would be the isolation that the U.S. has thus far warned Russia that it's facing if it does continue to escalate.

On the other side too, as Obama talks to allies by phone as he did yesterday as he will today, including with the UK. They are working on how to support the new Ukrainian government including financially, Jim.

SCIUTTO: (INAUDIBLE) the Ukrainian government certainly in financial dire straits and we talked a lot about leverage here. What leverage does the U.S. have? But if we're talking about sanctioning major Russian companies, perhaps excluding an interim financial system, that is a very powerful leverage. Thanks very much, Michelle Kosinski at the White House. We are going to continue to follow all of the developments in the Ukraine crisis.

But there is another big we want to tell you about - weather, and that's right here in the U.S.. After the break, we'll show you who is about to get hit by yet another big winter storm.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: So another week, another big winter storm. Surprise, surprise. The over the next couple of days, a big part of the country, the mid west and mid Atlantic and northeast will be getting slammed with snow, ice or heavy rain. 106 million Americans could feel the impact. This was the scene this morning in Kansas City, Missouri. Blinding snow, making travel extremely dangerous.

All across the storm zone, grocery stores are packed as folks stock up on the basics and there is a big concern that tens of thousands of people could lose power. It's already causing major flight cancellations, more than 1500, so far today.

Louisville, Kentucky and Philadelphia are both in the bulls eye as the big storm heads east. George Howell is in Louisville and Alexandra Field is in Philadelphia.

George, I want to start with you. In part because that's my mom's hometown but also, I know you are right in the eye of. What are you seeing there now?

GEORGE HOWELL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well here in the Kentucky area, Jim, as you know they are preparing. One of the biggest concern are downed trees, downed power lines as we see ice and sleet and snow coming to this area then the snowfall after midnight.

I want to show you what is happening behind me here. You can see - we are just starting to see activity. The last live shot that we did. Live report around 2:00 p.m. Eastern. Nothing was happening here. A little bit of rain coming down. And now you're starting to see these snow plows doing the work that hey will do for the rest of the night.

We know that at least 170 pieces of equipment will be working to treat the roads. They are already starting to load up the salt to go out and make sure that the highways, the roads are prepared. The timeline as we know it, Jim, and I'm sure that your relatives would want to know this because I hear it will get pretty rough as the hours go on right around 9:00 p.m.. That's when we'll start to see the sleet and the freezing rain here in this area and then after midnight we'll see a lot of snow.

The latest estimate that I hear could be anywhere from five inches or a little more of snow. So people are preparing as the storm system comes in.

SCIUTTO: All right. Thanks, George. They'll know it (INAUDIBLE) because I said Louisville instead of Louisville, just like the locals.

(CROSSTALK)

SCIUTTO: Exactly. Alexandra Field is with us now from Philadelphia. Also, in the crosshairs of the storm. Alexandra, tell me what you're seeing now and how about it. I think it's going to be there.

ALEXANDRA FIELD: Well, Jim, everyone is preparing to the fact that they are going to see more of what they've already seen, a lot of this winter. This city has seen about five feet of snow this winter and by tomorrow, that number could be up to about five and a half feet.

Right now you will see that it is just sort of drizzling here in Philadelphia. But a storm warning goes into effect at 6:00 tonight. It will last through most of the day tomorrow so soon some of the drizzle that we'll see will turn into sleet and then snow. We know that snow has already causing a lot of problems across the country.

In Montana three people had to be rescued from their home after they became trapped following an avalanche. In Colorado a 100 car pile up on an interstate left one person dead. Back here in Philadelphia, again people are getting ready to see even more snow. So far this winter, people in Philadelphia has had more snow than people have had in New York or Boston. And given the current forecast, Philadelphia should stay in the lead, Jim.

SCIUTTO: It sounds like it is going to be a busy night in Philadelphia, Louisville. Thanks very much, Alexandra Field, in Philly.

Defense secretary Chuck Hagel warns the situation in the Ukraine could become dangerous if not settled soon. And we'll tell you how a decision by a top Ukrainian military leader could complicate the situation there even more.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SCIUTTO: Defense secretary Chuck Hagel warns that Russia's incursion into Ukraine's Crimea peninsula risks becoming serious situation if not resolved soon.

CNN's Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr joins us now by telephone. Barbara, as we look at these development, you have the head of Ukraine's navy suddenly switching sides. You have the Ukraine military doing a call up of soldiers and putting their military on the highest alert possible and now we're hearing about power cut off to a base in Crimea, talk of warning shots fired. You covered a lot of these things, you know that is a dangerous combination of troops close to each other in a volatile situation. What is the Pentagon's view of how this can be resolved and de-escalated in these coming days?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim, you know, the Pentagon is absolutely adamant, it doesn't want to talk about this at all. Because they say there is no U.S. military option. The Pentagon is going to have to start talking about it. Most likely because of the growing escalation and in fact, in the last several minutes, a senior administration official has said that Russian forces now have complete operational control of the Crimean Peninsula, about 6,000 airborne and naval forces.

That makes this a full-on military situation at this point. Full operational control in Crimea. That means the Russian military controls air, land and sea, and as you said, this top naval official now defecting essentially to the Russian side. What does the Pentagon do about it if they want to engage these Russian military as a way of communicating, as a way of encouraging them to pull back? People are defecting. They don't know who is loyal to Ukraine. They don't know who may defect next to the Russian side.

Controlling for that (INAUDIBLE). Controlling the Crimean Peninsula. That up to this point appears to be the Russian goal and it looks essentially like the U.S. has concluded that they have done it if they have full operational control. At this point and it is going to make it very difficult for the Pentagon in the coming days because quite soon there are a number of regularly scheduled U.S. navy deployments into the Black Sea in that direction.

(INAUDIBLE) decide Chuck Hagel is going to have to decide if he recommend those regular deployment of the U.S. Naval forces go forward or (INAUDIBLE) the U.S. Navy pulls back. It will be very interesting to see what side they all come down on.

SCIUTTO: No question.

And I'm glad that you brought that up. We talked a lot about military options were off the table and they'll certainly were not sending troops in there, planes, you know, not going to be firing weapons but there are options in the military category, for instance, sending ships to the area. That is something that the U.S. did during the Georgia invasion in 2008, send ships there as they signal, I remember at the time as well. That President Bush sent humanitarian aid to the capital of Georgia at the time in military planes, not a military mission but they were military planes guessing that Russian troops would not attack the capital if American troops were on the ground there.

I mean, is it correct to say that there were no military options on the table when, in fact, there are steps that the military can take it seems to send a very strong message? STARR: Well, I think what you said a minute ago, I think there may be no U.S. military operations, there are things in the military category. And it is going to come up really within days now. Because the deployments are scheduled by the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Marine Corps, long scheduled. Do they go for a U.S. presence in that region as planned before all of this happened?

What message do they want to send? But it is coming at another awkward time for Chuck Hagel at the Pentagon because this week he is going to unveil the Pentagon budget and U.S. military spending is about to be cut. He will be out in public talking about why the U.S. can cut military spending, why they can cut back on troops and weapons and planes and tanks and all of it right as this is happening.

It just couldn't be more awkward for the Pentagon. It is part of the reason they don't want to talk about it. They don't want to put a military face on this. In the coming days, reality may take over.

SCIUTTO: OK. Incredible dynamic. This budget debate shrinking the military as you have this immense challenge abroad.

Thanks very much, to CNN's Barbara Starr at the Pentagon joining us by telephone. There is much ahead on - much more ahead on the crisis in the Ukraine including analysis of the U.S. military options in the region. Some of which Barbara just alluded to.

Our guest will be Retired Army Major General Spider Marks and former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Stephen ---

ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

JIM SCIUTTO, HOST: We have breaking news to report on the crisis in Ukraine. Two big developments just in the last few moments here. A senior administration official says that Russian forces now have, quote, "complete operational control of the Crimean Peninsula. The official said the U.S. estimates there are now 6,000 Russian ground and naval forces in the region. That's the most explicit U.S. officials have been so far on the number of Russian troops on the ground in what increasingly looks like an invasion and an occupation there.

In addition to that, we have this other development a short time ago that Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, on Tuesday. This also according to an administration official.

So two developments there on the ground. A military development, the Russians taking control of the Crimean Peninsula, in the view of the US. A diplomatic development, word now that Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to Kiev and arrive there on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not blinking, as global pressures mounts on him to stop messing with Ukraine, a former Soviet republic.

Ukraine's prime minister says Russia has declared war by sending troops to Crimea and his nation is teetering, in his words, on the brink of disaster.

Ukraine's new leaders are calling up troops to defend against pro-Russian forces. Ukraine's new navy chief switched sides today, as well, declaring his loyalty to Russia and disavowing Ukraine's new leaders just one day after he got the job.

And we're tracking a strange stand-off now at three military bases in the Crimea region. Pro-Russia forces are blocking the bases and demanding that Ukraine troops inside them turn over their weapons.

Here at home, President Obama met with his national security team at the White House and is expected to call U.S. allies today. Secretary of State John Kerry says that all options are on the table and that Putin needs to, quote, "roll it back in Crimea."

And no one wants to see a shooting war in Ukraine on either side, but if it comes to that, Kiev may turn to the West for help.

Is that realistic?

We're joined now by CNN's military analyst, "Spider" Marks.

He's joining us from Washington.

And former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Stephen Pifer, in Falls Church, Georgia.

Thanks to both of you for joining.

And I'm so glad you're both here. You know the situation well, especially in light of these developments we've had just in the last few minutes here.

General, if I can start with you. Word that Russian forces have taken complete operational control of Crimea.

Is this an invasion and occupation?

GEN. JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Jim, it is an invasion. The invasion occurred a couple of days ago when Russia put forces from its nation, its sovereign nation, into the sovereign nation of Ukraine by way of Crimea.

And it's not unusual for us to see Russian forces now surrounding Ukrainian bases in Crimea to ensure that they, the Russian forces, have complete control of the land mass, with the primary focus on Sevastopol, to ensure that that doesn't flip or that anything that takes place in Sevastopol is in question in terms of the Russian view.

It's not unusual at all that we would see this. And I think what we're really seeing is the initial steps, diplomatically, of some form -- it may be premature on my part, but that's OK -- of an annexation of Crimea by Russia.

SCIUTTO: Ambassador Pifer, if I can bring you in. We know that Ukraine forces are greatly outnumbered, out-armed by Russian forces. What aid might they be asking in addition to the diplomatic support that they're asking for?

What other aid might they be asking from the EU, from the U.S. at this point, as we hear of what very much appears to be an annexation of sovereign Ukraine territory?

STEVEN PIFER, BROOKINGS INSTITUTION: Well, first, let me make a distinction about what we're seeing now, is with the Russian forces in Crimea, it seems to me that the Ukraine government has basically exercised a huge degree of restraint in terms of telling the Ukraine armed forces in Crimea not to resist. They've maintained their bases. They've stayed in bases. They have not challenged the Russian forces on the Crimean Peninsula.

If, however, this is a prelude to a larger, broader Russian military intervention into Eastern Ukraine, though, I think the game changes very, very significantly and you likely will see the Ukraine Army fight. And then the game becomes much different than what we're seeing now.

Now, in terms of political, I think it's a very good move by Secretary Kerry to go to Kiev. One of the things that the United States and Europe should be doing, and Foreign Secretary Hague of Britain is in Kiev today, is to do everything that we can to bolster a government which has only been in place now for about seven days and it faces huge domestic challenges in addition to this huge crisis they have on their hands with Russia.

SCIUTTO: So we have the diplomatic options there.

Is there, General Marks, any military options?

And, again, Barbara Starr and I were talking about this a short time ago. We're not talking about an invasion, shooting, you know, bringing planes in and so on, but military options to send a message.

Barbara Starr mentioned that later this week, there's a regularly scheduled circulation of American warships in the Black Sea, where the Crimean Peninsula is.

Do you think that a show of force like that again regularly scheduled would be a good sign for the Obama administration to send at this point?

MARKS: Well, I think it's a perfect sign if it's previously scheduled, if it's not dramatically in response to what is taking place in the Ukraine, I think it's a good move.

Going into the Black Sea under these conditions makes it a little more problematic. The United States certainly doesn't have to fight its way in. It may have to fight its way out. I don't anticipate any of that.

But it's important that the United States continue to exercise military options and prime -- the primary mission at this point is to de-escalate. We have to demonstrate strength. You have to demonstrate resolve. And you also have to demonstrate, look, that Putin might think this is business as usual, we can't just simply be in response to his efforts. He clearly has the moment, but there are options that we can take. And the key thing is that the United States has to present a capability that allows the United States and partners to build on an extant presence so it can build, and if necessary, respond as directed.

SCIUTTO: Ambassador Pifer, If I can go back to the diplomatic route, as well. The NATO secretary-general, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, earlier today, referenced something that has come up in a number of the public statements from European, U.S. officials, as well, and that's the idea of an inclusive political process. We know that there's a view in the eastern part of that country, and certainly in Moscow, as well, that this government does not represent the whole country, just the western side, the Ukraine side.

Is that the path here now, is bringing in a more inclusive government, which we've also heard the Kiev government say they're willing to do?

Are we seeing a trial balloon floated for a way forward here, for a diplomatic path?

PIFER: Yes. Well, first of all, to be sure, there is an East- West divide in Ukraine. But I think it's often overstated in the West, and certainly In the last two decades of Ukraine's independence, that line has blurred a lot.

And bear in mind that in Eastern Ukraine, while the majority of the people there may speak Russian, it's still a majority population of ethnic Ukraine. The only place in Ukraine geo -- that -- where Russians are an ethnic majority is Crimea. And my sense is that in Eastern Ukraine, while they may not be wholly comfortable with what's happened in Kiev in the last 10 days, they're not talking about separatism. It's a very big distinction between Eastern Ukraine and Crimea.

But it still is very smart for the new government in Kiev to do what it can to be inclusive. In the first day after former President Yanukovych left, the Rada voted to overturn a language law that had given special status to the Russian language. And acting President Turchynov, two days ago, wisely vetoed that law, which I think was an indication to Russian speakers that, OK, we want to take an inclusive approach.

And it seems to me that's a sign of the government trying to reach out and hold as much support as it can, as it faces this huge amount of pressure coming from Russia.

SCIUTTO: Well, you make a great point, because we talk a lot about how Crimea is largely Russian speaking, but it's only 60 percent. So you've got another 40 percent there that isn't necessarily welcoming a Russian presence. And as you say, not all of the Russians speaking residents there would necessarily welcome a military presence. I wonder...

PIFER: Also, that includes -- about 15 to 20 percent of that population in Crimea are Crimean Tartars. And they are very, very strongly pro-Ukraine, because they associate Russian with the Soviet Union. And it was Joseph Stalin in 1944 who deported all of the Tartars from Crimea to Central Asia. They only began coming back in the 1990s.

SCIUTTO: A very good point. And it's also a reminder that Crimea is very close to that part of the country, part of Russia, that has a strong Islamic militancy, as well. And I understand that some of the Tartars have threatened a militancy if the Russian troops come in.

General Marks, just as you've been involved in crises such as this before.

What is your recommendation to White House officials as they're making decisions on the fly, as situations -- the situation on the ground is changing very quickly in these hours?

What's the most important moves they should be making in the next day?

MARKS: I think the key thing right now is de-escalation to ensure it doesn't flare up. What you don't want is Putin to be more aggressive and feel that with impunity, he can now move into the rest of Ukraine.

His interest and his focus to date has been on Crimea. We've got it. I think the United States is probably going -- and the international community -- is probably going to have to accept a half a loaf, in other words, the annexation of Crimea may be a fait accompli.

We have to accept that. We have to acknowledge that if Putin is not going to act against Ukraine, it's certainly in our best interests. This might, in fact, be version two of containment. In fact, I would suggest it is.

SCIUTTO: Interesting. And all this talk about whether we're returning to the cold war, if you're doing contaminate, it would seem to me that we are returning to a cold war-like situation here.

General Marks, Ambassador Pifer, thanks very much for joining us. The military and the diplomatic paths as we go forward.

Now, President Obama told Vladimir Putin personally that what he's doing in Ukraine hurts his standing around the world. But the damage may already be done.

Next, a former U.S. government negotiator on the Middle East mess that got a whole lot messier just this weekend.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) ANNOUNCER: This is CNN breaking news.

SCIUTTO: Breaking news just into CNN regarding the Ukraine.

A senior U.S. official tells CNN that Russian forces now, quote, "have complete operational control of the Crimean Peninsula."

The official said the U.S. estimates there are now some 6,000 Russian ground and naval forces in the region.

Also, we have just learned that Secretary of State John Kerry will travel to Kiev, Ukraine on Tuesday. Kerry has condemned Russia's, quote, "incredible act of aggression" and warned of economic punishment.

But again, returning to that main headline there, U.S. official confirming to CNN that it is Russian forces that have complete operational control of Crimea, the peninsula in Ukraine that has really been the center of this and the site of a major and important Russian naval base.

Now, President Obama told Russian President Vladimir Putin that his moves against Ukraine will have consequences well after this conflict over Crimea is finished. The two leaders spoke for an hour- and-a-half yesterday. Putin says Russian people in that part of Ukraine need his military help, and, in fact, are requesting it.

But Ukraine's acting prime minister calls Russia's troop movement into his country, quote, "a declaration of war."

Now, most analysts agree that what we're seeing in Ukraine this weekend will certainly change Russia's standing in the West and probably in the rest of the world.

Aaron David Miller is now with us from Washington, a distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, also a long time diplomat himself.

Now, Aaron, you wrote an excellent opinion piece that is now on CNN.com, talking about how the implications of what's going on in Crimea go well beyond that region.

But I want to start just with your view of how important it is, how crucial, how damaging it is now that Russian forces have completely operational control.

It looks like an invasion and occupation.

AARON DAVID MILLER, FORMER MIDDLE EAST NEGOTIATOR: Well, it's damaging for several reasons.

Number one, Putin is playing three dimensional chess and basically, unfortunately, sadly, we're playing checkers. I mean he hosts the Olympics. Not more than a week later, he invades a sovereign country and nearly occupies, operationally, maintains control. And at the same time, he's going to position himself, I suspect, in the end, because this ultimately is going to have some sort of diplomatic resolution. He'll portray himself as part of the problem and also part of the solution.

And that's the pattern with Putin. He's done it in Iran, where he negotiates with the P5-plus-1 on the nuclear issues and yet concludes a billion dollars of agreements with the Iranian regime.

He's done it in Syria, where he interceded diplomatically in order to prevent an American military strike -- a lot of help from the president on that one -- in order to negotiate a chemical weapons framework agreement.

And he appears to be able to have it both ways. He's literally both holding the party and spoiling it at the same time.

SCIUTTO: Well, it's incredible.

And, Aaron, I want you to stay there.

We just have some other breaking news coming in, the situation changing so rapidly.

CNN just confirming that German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she has spoken with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and has proposed a fact-finding mission onto the ground in Ukraine and that President Putin has accepted her proposal.

If I could ask you, since I have you there, Aaron David Miller, how important, how valuable would that be?

I mean a fact-finding mission, I imagine, you know, the Russians contend that it's ethnic Russians on the ground in Ukraine are under threat, are asking for help. I imagine a fact-finding mission is a way to get a more objective judgment as to what is actually happening on the ground.

MILLER: Sure. But it doesn't change the basic realities. And Putin has most of the cards. I mean history, geography, proximity, Russian national interests, they're all on his side. And the reality is, geography is everything. And in this respect, we have very few cards to play.

The real question, I think, for the administration is, to the degree to which it can mobilize the international community to really impose tough sanctions, anything from export controls to freezing financial accounts to making it impossible for the Russian elite to travel in the West.

We have to ask ourselves the question, how important is this and what price are we prepared to pay in order, literally, to respond to Putin's military moves with what would become an effective sanctions regime over time?

I'm not sure we're ready to go down that road yet.

SCIUTTO: Well, you also made the point in your piece that it is very important for President Obama to look strong now in the face of Russia's moves in Ukraine.

Why is that so important?

And how would you recommend he look strong?

MILLER: Well, you know, I'm not a European -- an Eastern European, Russian expert. The reality is, small powers pay attention to this. That's the real problem that we have.

And lately, over the last several years, it was true in the previous administration, as well, and in the Clinton administration, small powers say no to the United States without cost or consequence. Maliki says no, Karzai says no, Putin says no, Khamenei says no. Even our friends, as Secretary Kerry pursues this extraordinary effort to achieve an Israeli-Palestinian agreement, even our friends, the Israelis and the Palestinians, are probably going to say yes, but to the United States.

And this whole notion of saying no to the great power without cost or consequence really undermines our street cred. It's just that in this particular situation, unless we're really prepared to go to war over Ukraine -- almost unimaginable -- our options are very bad. And it's going to leave the United States, once again, as a kind of modern day Gulliver, you know, tied down by smaller powers whose interests are not its own.

SCIUTTO: A sobering read.

Thanks very much to Aaron David Miller, The Woodrow Wilson Center.

I just want to remind our viewers of a breaking news story confirmed by CNN that Russian forces now have complete operational control of the Crimean Peninsula in Ukraine.

Right now, there is also a silent stand-off between Russian forces and Ukrainian troops in Crimea.

Coming up, we'll talk to our correspondent, who was right there as it happened.

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GARY SINISE, ACTOR: Thought I'd try out my sea legs.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But you ain't got no legs, Lieutenant Day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: Long before Gary Sinise played Vietnam veteran Lieutenant Dan "Forrest Gump," he was a passionate supporter of the military.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SINISE: Well, I have a long history working with veterans starting with the relationships that I have in my long personal family. My dad was -- served in the Navy. My two uncles were in World War II. My grandfather served in World War I.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCIUTTO: With the success of "Forrest Gump," wounded veterans began to identify with Sinise.

SINISE: How many veterans have we got here today?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He formed The Lieutenant Dan Band and has entertained troops around the world with the USO. The actor says his call to action became very clear after 9/11.

SINISE: When our men and women started deploying to Iraq and Afghanistan, they started getting hurt and killed, having Vietnam veterans in my family, it was very troubling to think that our men and women would come home to a nation that didn't appreciate them.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So he started his own charity dedicated to veterans. The Gary Sinise Foundation helps build customized homes for the severely wounded and helps vets find civilian careers.

SINISE: I have met hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of wounded veterans who continue to not let their circumstance get them down, countless Lieutenant Dans out there that inspire me every day.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

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SCIUTTO: You are in the CNN NEWSROOM.

I'm Jim Sciutto.

This hour, we are fast forwarding to the week ahead.

We'll take a look at all the stories you'll be talking about and hearing about this coming week.

But first, breaking news on a number of fronts involving the crisis in Ukraine.

Several developments just in the last few moments, some of them very big, happening just in the last 20 minutes or so.

First, German Chancellor Angela Merkel says she spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin and proposed a fact-finding mission of some sort to the disputed areas there in Eastern Ukraine.