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Crisis in Ukraine

Aired March 03, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Good afternoon. I'm Anderson Cooper reporting live from Kiev. It is 10:00 here, Monday night, the end of what has been a very tense day in the country of Ukraine. All eyes still on the situation in Crimea. The government here in Kiev, the central government, a shaky government to say the least, a new government with a new president, with an interim president and a new prime minister trying to figure out what they can do to try to diffuse the crisis happening to the southeast in Crimea.

Right now, the diplomacy is certainly something that the government here in Kiev is looking for, looking for the involvement from the west, from the United States and from the European Union.

Also, at the same time, a dual track, they are calling up military reserves. They're trying to get as many volunteers as possible outside in Independence Square, which is right behind me now, which you can't really see because of the fog and the darkness.

All day, people have been giving their names to officials, volunteering to fight if it comes to that. It has not come to that yet, though it's still very, very tense indeed and there's no telling what may happen tomorrow with Russian forces on the ground in Crimea, as many as 10 bases surrounded by forces in Crimea.

There was talk today of an ultimatum by a commander of the Black Sea fleet, the Russian fleet. That has been contradicted by statements coming now out of Russia. We're going to go to Russia shortly low for that.

President Obama though just a short time ago spoke about the situation, about the diplomatic efforts under way and what sanctions if any the U.S. and the European Union might install against Moscow. He was talking while meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: Or are you also concerned about Russian forces moving into parts of Eastern Ukraine?

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: All of the above.

I spent the weekend talking to leaders across Europe. And I think the world is largely united in recognizing that the steps Russia has taken are a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty, Ukraine's territorial integrity, that they are a violation of international law, they're a violation of previous agreements that Russia has made with respect to how it treats and respect their neighbors.

And as a consequence, we got strong statements from NATO, from G7 condemning the actions that Russia's taken. And we are going to continue these diplomatic efforts during the course of this week.

My interest is seeing the Ukrainian people be able to determine their own destiny. Russia has strong historic ties to the Ukraine. There a lot of Russian nationals inside of Ukraine, as well as native Russians, as there are a lot of Ukrainians inside of Russia. There are strong commercial ties between those two countries.

And so all of those interests I think can be recognized, but what cannot be done is for Russia with impunity to put its soldiers on the ground and violate basic principles that are recognized around the world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COOPER: That was President Obama speaking just a short time ago.

You can hear music playing behind me and people singing. The square is still very active and this where demonstrations against the former president took place which ultimately drove that president to flee the country. He is now in Russia. He left a little bit more than a week ago, leaving behind a very shaky country and a very shaky situation.

The protesters have not left the square. They said they are not going to leave the square until they see that the new government that takes over, the new government that's in place actually follows through on the promises that they have made to try to fight corruption and to try to help the economic situation which is in very dire straits here indeed.

That's some of the sound you are hearing behind me. There's basically recordings, people singing. It goes on 24 hours a day all through tonight. And that is also where you see a lot of people signing up and saying they will fight, they will die to try to keep Ukraine together.

I want to check in with our Phil Black, who is in Moscow, because there has been a lot of fast-moving developments today.

Phil, one of the biggest was allegations, first of all, made by Ukrainian military officials who said that a Russian commander of the Black fleet had threatened to basically attack Ukrainian forces if those Ukrainian forces by tomorrow did not either surrender or pledge allegiance to Crimean officials in Crimea, to pro-Russian officials. That has been denied by Russian authorities.

What's the latest?

PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Anderson. Initially, this report first came from Russian media that said that Putin, the Russian fleet, Russian military forces in Crimea had set a 5:00 a.m. deadline for all Ukrainian military personnel to put down their weapons, otherwise, they would face a storm of Russian military force.

When we spoke to Ukrainian military officials, they confirmed that and told a fairly detailed story whereby the commander, the Russian commander of the Black Sea fleet, Alexander Vitko, boarded a Ukrainian vessel that is currently blockaded in the harbor at Sevastopol and gave the Ukrainian military personnel three options, to swear allegiance to swear allegiance to the new pro-Russian authorities in Crimea, to simply surrender, or to face attack.

Now, through Russian state media, the Black Sea fleet says there is no ultimatum and there never was, it simply didn't happen. But Ukrainian military official tell us that these ultimatums, these deadlines have been a regular feature of their dealings with Russian military forces ever since they started moving through the Crimea and ever since they started surrounding the Ukrainian military bases there.

They have regularly given ultimatums and deadlines. The Ukrainian officials say their military forces have not lived up to them, those deadlines have passed and so far as yet nothing has happened. They believe it is a technique that the Russians are using to apply psychological pressure to simply get these Ukrainian forces to lay down arms to ensure that the Russians can finish what they have done so far.

That is effectively take over Crimea without firing a single shot -- Anderson.

COOPER: And they are certainly in control of Crimea, there's no doubt about that at this point. Phil Black, appreciate it from Moscow. We will checking in with Phil and all our correspondents all throughout the region this hour and all throughout the day.

I want to check in with Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, who joins us now.

Ambassador, first of all, what do you make of the reports of this ultimatum now being denied by officials in Moscow? Does it ring true to you that a local commander, the Black Sea commander would make such an ultimatum?

MICHAEL MCFAUL, FORMER U.S. AMBASSADOR TO RUSSIA: Well, I don't know who is right or wrong.

I do know that in other instances like this in Russian history, there is confusion in the chain of command. There are sometimes people that take their orders and interpret them in certain ways. It's not surprising. I'm glad so far that we have not seen armed conflict between Ukrainians and Russians in Crimea. That would be a threshold that would be truly disastrous.

COOPER: In terms of diplomatic efforts, certainly Ukrainian government here Kiev certainly hopes that that some sort of diplomatic solution can be found. And they are looking to the United States and they are looking at the European Union. How do you see diplomacy working, if it can work?

MCFAUL: Well, it has to work.

It has to be the focus of attention of all responsible leaders in the world. I think it's important that Secretary Kerry will be joining you there tomorrow. That's a good signal. I think it's quite important what the Ukrainian government has done in terms of signaling, number one, restraint, and, number two, signaling that they want reconciliation and that they want Ukrainians to decide this issue by themselves, but they don't want to spiral into some kind of civil war that would bring Russia in.

I think it's also interesting if you look at what the Russian government officials are saying, not the people on television, but the government officials, they still are also going back to the February 21 agreement, talking about how there has to be a negotiated settlement. They are not talking about Crimea becoming an independent country or part of Russia yet. And that leaves the door open for diplomacy.

COOPER: Does that tell you that Russia does not want necessarily Crimea as part of Russia proper?

MCFAUL: What Russia wants -- we have to be careful. Right? Let's talk about Putin and then what other Russians may want.

My reading of the situation -- and I just was in Moscow working just last week meeting with government officials there -- is that President Putin was frustrated by the way that the February 21 agreement fell apart. Many Russian government officials expressed to me their disappointment that President Yanukovych was so weak that he did not restore what they called order.

This was their immediate first response was to go into Crimea and say we will be an actor and we will be a player. I don't think they have decided what their endgame is. I don't think Putin himself knows whether he wants to use this to negotiate different terms in terms of what the composition of the next government in Ukraine might be or whether he decided that he wants to try to take Crimea as a piece for Russia. I think they are still undecided about what their ultimate endgame is so far.

COOPER: There is a report right now from "The New York Times" that the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, had a conversation with President Obama on the phone after having a conversation with Vladimir Putin.

According to the "Times"' source, Angela Merkel said that she believed that Vladimir Putin was basically out of touch with reality, not necessarily kind of in this world. If that is the case, that would seem to be an incredibly frightening prospect.

MCFAUL: Well, of course I can't speak to what the two leaders talked about in reality.

I also read that. I can tell you that it was oftentimes troubling to me -- and I have sat at the table with President Putin from time to time in my previous job -- the sources of information that they had, allegations about what we were doing here and there were somewhat surprising to me.

Obviously, if you watch Russian television, as I have been over the last couple days, you would have thought that Nazi brigades had invaded Crimea and therefore the Russian population there need to be saved, when in fact we all know -- and including because of reporting that you all are doing -- there is no such thing. There is no such threat whatsoever in Crimea.

It's hard for me to know what the president -- what actual news and what actual information he has. It's obviously disturbing if what those allegations that were reported in "The New York Times" are true.

COOPER: Do you see any scenario in which Russian forces go farther, that Russian forces go into parts of Eastern Ukraine, Russian-speaking Eastern Ukraine?

MCFAUL: Yes.

I don't want to predict and I don't want to sound dire, but I know my European history. I teach history here at Stanford. I know that on the cusp of crises and the beginning of crises, people think, well, this assassination here, this act here, it is going to stop with that.

And I would just remind everyone that there are lots of unintended consequences when you have many armed men staring at each other in places like you do in Crimea. I think we all need to be very vigilant, and worry about those worst-case scenarios, because it's in no one's interest, not Russia's and not Europe and not the United States and most certainly not in the interest of the people of the Ukraine, to see an all-and-all-out civil war in this country in the heart of Europe of 50 million people.

COOPER: Yes, troubling times certainly here. Ambassador, I appreciate your perspective. Thank you very much.

Want to go to CNN military analyst General James "Spider" Marks, who is joining us.

General Marks, it's good to have you on the program.

BRIG. GEN. JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Thank you, Anderson.

COOPER: In terms of what you have seen over the last 12 hours, 12 to 24 hours, what do you make of the Russian military stance on the ground in Crimea?

MARKS: As the ambassador pointed out, what you see is very strong, very capable what I would suggest is a conventional military, Russian military on the ground, which has done a superb job militarily of isolating Crimea, of ensuring that it retains, Russia retains access to Sevastopol, which is the only warm water port, as we have discussed, and it has national security implications and certainly has incredible trade implications for Russia, and that they have consolidated on the objective, if you will, in military terms. In other words, they own the ground and they own everything that is taking place.

And they maintain access and freedom of movement within Crimea. I would suggest at this point clearly what we see from Russia is a consolidation, as I have said, in Crimea. We haven't seen anything that would suggest that they are about to begin operations into the rest of the larger Ukraine. If we were, those forces would come from Russia, not from Crimea.

COOPER: And, as you would, those forces would have to come from Russia. That's not a situation where the forces could come from Crimea both -- basically because of the geography.

MARKS: Absolutely.

Anderson, you could, but that would put forces in Crimea at risk. It's a peninsula and it's a narrow neck. You have to go from a very controlled area through this very restricted area and then try to deploy a greater number of forces into Eastern Ukraine. That's unlikely.

Militarily, that's not likely. What you would see is the formation. What we might be able to pick off of it is if Putin is intent on doing something in the larger Ukraine -- I suggest he's not. He has achieved what he wants, but we have to be vigilant.

But what I would suggest is we would see the formation of military increased activity along the border with Ukraine. And then that reduces any type of warning situation. We would have no warning between operations in Russia and then a movement across the border into Ukraine.

COOPER: And very briefly, in terms of the Ukraine military capabilities, can you describe what they are? Because I was out today in the square talking to people and I had 65-, 70-year-old men coming up to me and talking about how they were wanting to volunteer to fight. Obviously, if it gets to that, that's not a scenario. How strong is the Ukraine military and how big are the reserve forces which have been called up today?

MARKS: Anderson, Ukraine has a military that is about a fifth of the size of Russia.

And overall they have committed just a few million in terms of their defense budget over the course of the last year. It really is an unfair fight were they to mobilize their guard, which they have demonstrated that they are about to. But what this really is, is more symbolism than it is substance. The Ukraine people certainly will fight. They be confronted and this is a matter of national pride. The problem remains is that Ukraine would be a bloodbath were they to do that, and that is not an outcome that anybody would like to see, to include Putin.

COOPER: Yes. No doubt about that. James "Spider" Marks, good to have you on the program.

We will take a short break. When we come, we will take a look at what options the United States and President Obama have.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA: In the short term, probably not, because we have to regain our credibility, which we none.

And, by the way, again, there are significant Russian populations in many countries in Poland and in Romania and in the Baltic countries. Does this mean that we will now acquiesce to Putin acting on behalf of Russian population in parts of all these countries?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COOPER: Senator John McCain earlier today. He has been very critical of the Obama administration and their handling of this situation in the Ukraine, as he has been critical of the Obama administration's foreign policy in general over the last several years.

I'm reporting from Kiev tonight, right in front of Independence Square, and you can actually hear prayers are being said at this late hour in the 10:00 hour here on Monday night. There's a lot of people praying in Ukraine, praying this country stays together and praying that all-out hostilities do not break out between Ukrainian fores and Russian forces now on the ground in the thousands in Crimea.

It is a very tense, very dangerous situation. The country, as the new prime minister of Ukraine said, is on the brink of disaster.

Our Christiane Amanpour, host of "AMANPOUR" on CNN International, is joining us now from New York, and so is Bobby Ghosh from "TIME International."

Christiane, you spoke with a former Ukrainian prime minister, a woman who was in jail under the last president, the president who fled a little bit more than a week ago. She is a key player here on the ground. What did she say in terms of what she hopes to -- involvement in terms of the United States and the European Union? She's clearly looking to the West for as much help as possible?

CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right. She is a major power player, a political figure in Ukraine right now.

She said first and foremost she is appealing to Ukrainians to stay cool and stay calm and not to give Russia any more pretext to increase its military incursion. But she also said as we talked that she was very concerned that the Russian parliament was debating a draft bill about annexing Crimea. She said she absolutely needed Western help because fully understanding the as she put it balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, as Spider Marks told you, Ukrainian forces are no match for the Russians.

And any military confrontation would end in disaster for Ukraine. But this is what she told me about urgently needed to stop Russia, as she put it, grabbing Crimea.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

YULIA TYMOSHENKO, FORMER UKRAINIAN PRIME MINISTER (through translator): But in hard times, Ukraine is left on its own and is given to Russia -- and when Russia is allowed to take away Crimea. Then the world will change and then not only politics and life in Ukraine will change, the politics and life will change practically everywhere in the world and then we have to accept to state that, in 21st century, one country, an aggressor, can violate all the international agreements, take away territories whenever she likes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

AMANPOUR: Obviously, a very nervous Ukrainian interim government and authorities trying to figure out how to get themselves out of this terrible crisis.

You were mentioning people in the square there saying they wanted to volunteer. They have called up the mobilization of forces for training. I asked Tymoshenko what was the point of this given the unequal balance of power? She said, look, yes, we understand that we cannot face off against Russia. But if Russians do increase their intervention, go beyond Crimea and into other parts of Eastern Ukraine, then she said Ukrainians would give their lives to stop that.

She said they already had in the square last week and she said that nobody wants this to happen, but that Ukrainians might feel that they were so upset they would have to actually give their lives to defend their country. You know here sanctions are being prepared, according to the State Department. Secretary Kerry is on his way to Kiev, to where you are, and there's some hope that there can be some kind of European-mediated off-ramp for Russia and maybe even some kind of mediated talks between Russia and the Ukrainian authorities -- Anderson.

COOPER: Bobby, to Christiane's point, everyone said diplomacy is really the only way this can end, that there is not a military solution here certainly in terms of involvement from other countries and certainly Ukraine forces are not really up to the battle at this point.

How would that -- what are the next steps for that diplomatic solution to actually get under way?

BOBBY GHOSH, DEPUTY INTERNATIONAL EDITOR, "TIME": As she pointed out, John Kerry is on his way to Kiev.

The president and he have been on the phone talking to European leaders and trying to come up with a united front and a united plan. But I suspect the most important conversation that will need to take place is between Yulia Tymoshenko, the woman you just showed a clip there talking to Christiane, and Vladimir Putin.

We know he has said in the past he likes her. She is from Eastern Ukraine herself, the Russian-speaking part. She is a major player in Ukraine, despite being somewhat discredited for her own role in government. But she and Putin will have what might be the most meaningful talks.

If the two of them can work out a deal, at least the sort of shape of a deal, then that is something for Europeans and the U.S. to swoop in on and endorse it and try and move it forward.

AMANPOUR: Anderson?

COOPER: Bobby, appreciate you being on as well, Christiane as well.

You can obviously -- yes, go ahead, Christiane.

AMANPOUR: NO, simply to say I asked her about what kind of an agreement could be struck.

And some people including your former guests were saying that perhaps that February 21 agreement, where European leaders had an agreement with Yanukovych to have elections at the end of this year and to basically reduce the power of the presidency. I asked Tymoshenko if that was a goer, because the Russians are saying that too, we want to get back to the so-called February 21 agreement.

She said to me in no uncertain terms, no, nyet, no way at all, she said, because what happened is that Yanukovych in the interim she said has become somebody with blood on his hands. Dozens of people were killed and that would be returning Ukraine to a dictatorship after giving up so many lives to prevent that from happening.

It will be really difficult, but I agree with Bobby that Tymoshenko does have a relationship with Putin. It dates back a long time. Whether it's still valid, we don't know. But there will be some very important discussions that need to be had between Ukrainian and Russian leadership.

COOPER: Although, Christiane, Ukraine officials, and as you pointed out, the government here is very shaky and it's a new government and the interim president and new prime minister here. They have already backtracked on some of the things they had decided to do just earlier in the week in terms of the use of the Russian language in parts of Ukraine. They have already started to try to make some concessions on ultimatums they had already passed.

AMANPOUR: Well, yes, and they have been urged by all their allies to do that.

That was one of the dumbest things they could have done at the beginning and certainly the Polish foreign minister who was one of the key interlocutors in the attempts to resolve this about a week or so ago, that February 21 agreement, said this was a really stupid thing that the new Ukrainian authorities have done.

This is before this crisis developed into where it is right now. Coming up with edicts that would limit or ban the use of the Russian language. They said they had to stop those kinds of things and basically reach out in a sort of government of national unity or national trust or national trust or whatever words they're trying to use to make sure that they show all of Ukraine, including Eastern Ukraine and Crimea, that they are a government for all Ukrainians.

On the other hand, what Russia is saying about these attacks by Ukrainians against ethnic Russians is not true in terms of the extent of the perfidy that Russia is painting Ukrainians of having committed.

COOPER: Yes. There's certainly not the evidence of that on the ground at all in Crimea. Christiane, great to have you on, Bobby as well.

When we come back, we will be taking a look at the economic impact this has had all around the world, not just in the United States and in Russia, all around the world on financial markets.

We will be right back, live from Kiev.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)