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Russia: China Supports its Actions; Ukrainian Warship on Way to Black Sea; Would Ukraine's Military Stand a Chance?; Putin Breaks His Silence, Defends Invasion; NATO Meets Over Regional Stability Fears

Aired March 04, 2014 - 10:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: What do you make of the Russian statement that China supports Russia's actions in Ukraine? China like Russia, a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.

JIM WALSH, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: You know I think China is going to try to stay out of this one. It brings different competing interests for Chinese foreign policy. On the one hand, China has always had this long standing policy of noninterference in other country's affairs.

You know don't bother us and we won't bother you. That's been very convenient for them and an excuse not to get involved when there is an international crisis.

But let's also be clear that during the history of China, they have been happy to intervene militarily on their borders in border states. That's what the Russians are doing. They care about borders. It is good old power politics from a century long ago. So the Chinese are not -- you know have been known to do this too. I'm sure the Chinese have mixed feelings. My guess is they're going to keep their mouth shut.

BLITZER: Yes they like to stay out of these kinds of matters. All right. Thanks very much Jim Walsh of MIT helping us better appreciate what's going on.

Still to come: the breaking news continuing, a Ukrainian warship steaming toward the Black Sea. Our own Ivan Watson is following it. We're going to check in with Ivan. These are dramatic images you are about to see.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: Ukrainian/Russian tensions ratcheting up on the seas. Reuters now reporting Ukrainian border guards say Russian navy ships are blocking both ends of the Kerch Strait which separates Russia from Crimea and a potential confrontation could take place in the Black Sea. The flagship of the Ukrainian Navy's Black Sea Fleet is on its way there. Two Russian warships have already moved into the Black Sea. The Ukrainian frigate is following the route of Russian ship through the Bosporus Strait.

CNN's Ivan Watson is on a boat in the Strait for us right now. He is joining us on the phone. Ivan, tell us what you're seeing. What's going on?

IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (via telephone): Well within the last hour this Ukrainian flagship, this frigate Hetman Sahaidachny it steamed through the Bosporus Strait and at one point along this winding waterway that cuts through Istanbul towards the Black Sea there were, perhaps, 40 Ukrainians on the banks waving Ukrainian flags and the flags of the Crimean Tatars to welcome this Ukrainian warship as it steamed past. And it was followed by a Turkish warship, escorted by a Turkish warship as well.

But we've seen a lot of warships steaming through here today en route to the Black Sea. All of them would normally be stationed in the Crimean Peninsula. But Ukrainian officials tell me that their warships are not going to be going there, of course, because Russian troops have effectively occupied the Crimean Peninsula. They are instead moving towards the Ukrainian port of Odessa.

And Ukrainian officials want to draw attention to the fact that their flagship is headed there. They want to prove to the rest of the world and in particular to the Russian media that their military and their navy is still intact despite reports of defections to the Russian side -- Wolf.

BLITZER: So basically, what I'm hearing, Ivan, is that the Ukrainians have their own sort of show of support, that they are trying to demonstrate in the face of what they see as Russian evil intentions and the Russians are making a show of force for their part as well, right?

WATSON: Well, the Ukrainians are there (AUDIO GAP) not only because of the thousands of Russian troops that have fanned out across the Crimean Peninsula, but also because the commander of the Ukrainian navy defected. He basically left Ukraine and took up the flag of Russia. As one Ukrainian diplomat put it, that man is a Judah now -- a Judas now and that is part of why the Ukrainians tried to draw attention to the fact that their ship sailed through still flying the blue flag of Ukraine.

They wanted to counter in this world of perception some media reports that have emerged claiming that this Ukrainian vessel had defected as well. And as we basically saw, the Ukrainian frigate was flying the Ukrainian colors as it steamed through Istanbul. Now amid this kind of competition in perceptions it's still very clear that the Ukrainians are vastly outgunned and outmanned by the Russian military.

The Ukrainian position is that they are not going to fire the first shot, but they are going to stand their ground peacefully as one ambassador put it, like Gandhi.

There's another element to this Wolf the tensions do seem to be rising in the Black Sea Basin. The Turkish military announced that it scrambled eight -- no less than eight F-16 fighter jets today in response to a Russian reconnaissance flight in international waters off of Turkey's Black Sea coast. That is not a standard routine procedure to scramble so many fighter jets. And it is a sign that other countries in the region, including Turkey, a member of the NATO military alliance, are clearly concerned by the Russian show of military force in the Crimean Peninsula and in the Black Sea -- Wolf.

BLITZER: And as you pointed out Turkey, a member of NATO, so clearly greater implications if this situation deteriorates and Turkey somehow gets involved in this latest confrontation. That would be deeply, deeply disturbing. By the way a U.S. warship is scheduled to go into the Black Sea itself.

So this is going to be a dramatic development all around. Ivan Watson -- thanks very much.

I want to bring in Tom Foreman who is taking a closer look at all of this. There is no real competition, military to military, Tom, between Ukraine's military including its navy and the Russian military.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: No, there is not. We use this phrase, "show of force". On the Ukrainian side, it's a lot of show; on the Russian side it's a lot of force.

Come in very closely and let's talk about what Ivan is saying. This is the Black Sea right here. The ships he is talking about are right down in here. So they are some 300 miles maybe away from the Ukrainian coast. Here is Crimea up here.

But let's go in now and we'll back off and look at what this actually means. When you look at the area of the ground here we've already talked about the fact that Russia shares all of this border. So, for the Russian military on land to come in is immense but then when you think about their naval superiority -- that also would cover all of this territory.

Look now you've got well more than half of Ukraine controlled from the borders by Russia. And how much is it controlled -- by a really, really quite tremendous amount.

Let's bring this up and take a look at the military strength here particularly in regard to the Navy that you were just talking about. Total number of ships in the Ukrainian Navy 25 -- total number for the Russians, 352 -- this is from GlobalFirePower.com. Destroyers -- zero for Ukraine; submarines, one; patrol craft, relatively small, two. Destroyers over here, 13; submarines 63 including some powerful nuclear sub; patrol craft, 65 -- that's just a partial measure of it.

There is no military contest between these two unless Ukraine gets help from someone like Turkey or some of the European nations or from the United States. And as you mentioned a minute ago Wolf there's a lot of hesitation for anyone to do that for fear of this escalating wider.

So the Ukrainians cannot afford to fire not the first shot but probably any shot because the damage would be so intense here but if we go back to the world map, that's why we are hearing so much talk about sanctions. Because if there is no military option here because the Russians control it so thoroughly. And it's not just at sea it's in land power, it's in troops, it's in missiles, it is in artillery, it is in tanks; in every way they are vastly superior to Ukraine. The only real weapon right now that the world is considering is sanctions. Saying if you take the immense GDP of the European nations and you combine it with the immense GDP of the United States, that could put pressure on Russia's economy but only if everyone sticks together. Without that, there can be cracks that could allow Russia to keep slipping through -- Wolf.

BLITZER: All right Tom Foreman, good explanation. Thank you.

Still to come, pressure from the West for Russian forces to back down in Ukraine. But will -- will Vladimir Putin listen to the international community?

Up next what's at stake for the Russian leader and what it could mean for its relationship with the rest of the world.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: President Vladimir Putin took a bold stand today on the crisis in Ukraine. Earlier in the day, the Russian leader said his country has the right to take all measures when it comes to military action. So what are the consequences for Putin and his relationship with the international community?

Let's discuss with Eugene Rumer, he's a senior associate and director of the Carnegie Endowments for Russia and Eurasia program. Eugene thanks very much for joining.

We just learned that Russia has declined an invitation for actual diplomatic talks with Ukraine. So what's going on here? What's the next step?

EUGENE RUMER, DIRECTOR, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENTS FOR RUSSIA AND UKRAINE: Well, I think the next step is really to reconstitute the situation on the ground as the new normal. From the beginning of Putin's current term in office, Eurasian integration, that is, pulling back these satellite countries into Russia's orbit has been the priority of Russian foreign policy. And Putin saw Ukraine slipping away with this association agreement.

(CROSSTALK)

BLITZER: The association agreement with the EU, you mean?

RUMER: With the EU, that's correct. And especially after the revolution in Kiev, he felt that he had no options left but to try to pull Ukraine back by some means. So, certainly, you know, moving in to Crimea was not really his first choice but it was his weapon of last resort so to speak. I think he is trying to create sort of a new status quo.

BLITZER: I want you to listen to what he said at this lengthy news conference in Moscow about the potential use of Russian military force. Listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) VLADIMIR PUTIN, PRESIDENT OF RUSSIA (through translator): If I take the decision to use military force, it will be completely legitimate and correspond to the norms of international law, because we have the request of the legitimate president and also corresponds to our duties and corresponds to our interest in protecting the people who are close to us historically.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BLITZER: So basically, he is saying that Yanukovych, who was ousted is still the legitimate president of Ukraine. And that's the leader they want to deal with. They don't want to deal with this new government in Kiev and presumably that's why they don't want to participate in any talks with this new government in Kiev. Is that your understanding?

RUMER: That is my understanding. But I wouldn't take it for granted that this narrative will persist because Putin, among others, and other Russian officials, have spoken in very dismissive terms on occasion about Yanukovych and his inability to really control the situation in the Ukraine. So they may be looking at other options.

But I think quite consistently, for the time being, at least, they have denied that the new government in Kiev is legitimate. So I think they are looking for a better option at the moment and they may cling to this Yanukovych option.

But I wouldn't take it too seriously because even they probably understand that Yanukovych does not have much of a future in Ukrainian politics.

BLITZER: Yes. I suspect you are right on that front. You have a fascinating article in "Politico", the magazine. I want to read a couple sentences from it. Then, we'll discuss. I'll put it up on the screen.

"Post revolutionary Ukraine is in bad shape. Its economy is wrecked. Corruption and criminality, Ukraine's twin scourges, remain basically intact. Thanks to Russia's unexpected moves in Crimea, the West will have to put Humpty Dumpty back together on its own."

So the U.S., today announced John Kerry is in Kiev, a $1 billion loan guarantee for Ukraine that will enable the Ukrainians to go to banks, international banks, get some money. The U.S. would guarantee repaying that if the Ukrainians can't do it. Is that going to make much of a difference as far as Ukraine's economic recovery and, as you correctly pointed, the economic situation in the Ukraine now is a mess?

RUMER: Well, of course, every little bit helps. Apparently, Ukraine's financial situation is such that a $1 billion guarantee -- you know, a $1 billion loan guarantee is very much a step in the right direction.

In reality, they need a whole lot more. Just today, the latest news from Moscow was that the Russians were taking back the discount on gas prices that was about a 30 percent discount on the gas price that Russia was supplying to Ukraine. So this will put additional pressure on the Ukrainian economy and the Ukrainian government.

Of course, if Ukraine can't pay then, you know, charging them more money will not make all that much difference. It is just going to pile on to the debt that Ukraine already owes to Russia. That's it.

You know, all of this really is nothing new in a sense because unfortunately, in Ukraine, we've seen two decades worth of governments that have resisted implementing far-reaching significant reforms. That's really 20, 25 years are overdue.

The hope is that this new government will have the political will and some material support from the West because it really has nowhere else to go. To go to the IMF, the International Monetary Fund, and then take a larger assistance package that will be contingent on implementing these reforms.

So somehow together a package can be put together for Ukraine to move forward.

BLITZER: Eugene Rumer of the Carnegie Endowment in Washington -- thanks very much for your expertise. We all always appreciate it. Thanks very much.

RUMER: My pleasure.

BLITZER: Still to come, we are going to go to NATO. The NATO leaders have just wrapped up a meeting outside of Brussels. We'll have the latest on that.

Also troops digging in -- Russian troops digging in. Apparently, you are seeing them in Ukraine right now. We'll have the latest.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BLITZER: The Russian invasion of neighboring Ukraine has sent ripples of concern across the region. Members of the NATO military alliance just wrapped up an emergency meeting to discuss the possible impact on security and stability for key U.S. allies.

CNN's Erin McLaughlin is joining us now live from just outside Brussels at NATO headquarters. Erin you have the Czech ambassador to NATO standing with you. Is that right?

ERIN MCLAUGHLIN, CNN CORRESPONDNET: That's right, Wolf. The meeting has concluded. In mere minutes, we are expecting some sort of statement from the NATO secretary general. Joining me now to talk a bit about what happened during that meeting is the Czech ambassador to NATO, Jiri Sedivy. Ambassador Sedivy, what happened during the meeting? What can you tell us?

JIRI SEDIVY, CZECH AMBASSADOR TO NATO: It was a long meeting. We started in the morning and interrupted for lunch and ended up now. The main part is summarizing the statement. And indeed, we unanimously supported Poland and its request. We very much understand it. And we feel especially those nations close to the periphery of the crisis we feel certain concerns that are growing.

We have agreed that Russia continues to violate international law. And we also agreed that actually this situation constitutes destabilizing effect for the whole European community. And we decided to enhance or intensify our processes that are dealing with strategy consultation, situation awareness. Last but not least, we decided finally to have a meeting with Russia tomorrow with the NATO-Russia council. And obvious is that we will continue our close consultations with Ukraine.

MCLAUGHLIN: This meeting was convened because Poland invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, meaning that either it or other NATO members were feeling threatened by the situation in the Ukraine. What can you add about the reasons behind why this meeting was called?

SEDIVY: We see this situation as an overall element of destabilizing with a potential of escalation of destabilization especially in our region, which is Central and Eastern Europe. Poland did not spell out any specific threats. I think what is important is that just the label, Article 5, gives very special importance to such a meeting and let's say, gravity.

MCLAUGHLIN: Article 4?

SEDIVY: Sorry, Article 4.

MCLAUGHLIN: Was it just Poland expressing these concerns or other NATO member states?

SEDIVY: I mean most of us in the vicinity of Ukraine, indeed, are thinking about consequences of a potential escalation of the crisis there.

MCLAUGHLIN: OK. Thank you very much. There you go, Wolf. So far here at NATO, a three-pronged approach: first confirming a solidarity among NATO members; second issuing support to Ukraine as well; then thirdly maintaining -- trying to maintain some sort of dialogue with Russia -- Wolf.

BLITZER: And they are going to try to have a meeting, Erin, with the Russians. Tomorrow the NATO allies will presumably present this unified front to the Russians, right?

MCLAUGHLIN: Yes. That is why we are expecting that meeting to happen tomorrow. It will be interesting though to see if Russia does indeed show up for that meeting -- Wolf.

BLITZER: All right. Erin McLaughlin in Brussels at NATO headquarters. Thanks very much.

And thanks to you, all of our viewers for joining us. I'm Wolf Blitzer. See you back here 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

"@ THIS HOUR" with Berman and Michaela starts right after a quick break.

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