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Crisis in Ukraine - Continuing Coverage

Aired March 04, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Good afternoon. I'm Anderson Cooper live in Kiev with our special coverage of the crisis here in Ukraine. I want to welcome our viewers in the United States and watching around the world on CNN International.

I'm right at the entrance to Independence Square here in Kiev. It is 10:00 at night on Tuesday, the end of what has been a very tense and fast-moving day. You can see protesters are still here behind me trying to stay warm in the frigid night temperatures.

This square is still full of protesters who are determined to camp out here until they say that they have seen the changes that they have fought so hard for and bled for and died for, that they see changes taking place in Ukraine.

This is also a shrine where hundreds if not thousands of people come every day to leave flowers, to light candles, to remember those dozens of people who lost their lives here in the struggle for change.

Today, President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry are rejecting Russia's reasoning for what is happening in Crimea. Vladimir Putin gave a press conference earlier today talking about what's happening in Ukraine's heavily pro-Russian Crimean Peninsula.

Right now, Ukrainian ministry officials say at least 16,000 Russian troops are in Crimea. Russia claims it's protecting the interests of oppressed ethnic Russians living under a new government. But President Obama, as well as Secretary of State John Kerry, who was here in this square earlier today, visited the capital of Kiev for several hours, insists that what Russian President Vladimir Putin says does not match what is actually happening on the ground.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't think that's fooling anybody. I think everybody recognizes that, although Russia has legitimate interests in what happens in a neighboring state, that does not give it the right to use force as a means of exerting influence inside of that state.

JOHN KERRY, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: We condemn the Russian Federation's act of aggression. It is clear that Russia has been working hard to create a pretext for being able to invade further.

Russia has talked about Russian-speaking minority citizens who are under siege. They're not. And, in fact, this government has acted remarkably responsibly by urging total calm.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COOPER: Well, earlier, Russia's Vladimir Putin would not acknowledge to reporters that Russian troops were in Crimea. In fact, he denied it. But he did say his intentions are not a takeover of Crimea.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): Because we are not going to go to war with Ukraine. But Ukraine has the army. I want you to understand clearly. If we do this, it will only be to protect local people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COOPER: Russian officials plan a rare meeting with NATO leaders tomorrow, but Russia has rejected a meeting with the United States, Ukraine and the United Kingdom. They rejected that outright.

Meantime, Secretary Kerry has promised a billion dollars in loans to Ukraine.

Now, before we go further, I want to bring in Jim Sciutto, CNN chief national security correspondent, also P.J. Crowley, former State Department spokesman under President Obama.

Jim Sciutto, Jim, thanks for joining us.

Secretary Kerry said it over and over today. The United States wants to see Russia de-escalate the crisis and to work out his problems directly with the Ukrainian government. Does the U.S. actually believe that Putin might actually take them up on that?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, interesting. The president said today that he noted that there are reports that Putin may be taking a pause to think about what he's done there.

I don't know if that's a hopeful read of the situation. But clearly you're hearing consistently now from U.S. officials -- and this really started on the weekend from the NATO secretary-general as well -- the offering up of an off-ramp, in effect, for Russia, with a couple of elements, one, the discussion of a more inclusive government in Ukraine that is more representative of the ethnic Russians in the eastern part of the country there as an offer to the Russians, because clearly the Russians feel this government, not only do they claim it's not legitimate.

They claim that it's not representative. Also, this offer of a mission, monitors on the ground to evaluate these Russian claims that somehow ethnic Russians are under threat there. But as Secretary Kerry said, you know, when you listen to his comments, it's really a point-by-point rebuttal of the facts on the ground as viewed by President Putin and other Russian officials. And Kerry said, listen, there's no evidence that ethnic Russians are under threat. But, still, they're offering these things as an opportunity to de-escalate. And I think I'm told that the next 24 to 48 hours are key. They're going to be watching for signs that Russians are willing to take that off-ramp.

COOPER: P.J. Crowley, you know the world of diplomacy better than anyone. I'm curious to have your take on what you heard from Vladimir Putin today in that press conference. And is there any chance that Putin has gotten himself out on a limb and maybe wants a way out?

P.J. CROWLEY, FORMER U.S. ASSISTANT SECRETARY OF STATE FOR PUBLIC AFFAIRS: Well, I think Vladimir Putin has achieved one thing he probably set out to do, which is to reestablish some leverage on a revolution that was spinning beyond Russia's control and beyond Russia's comfort level.

I think the danger for Putin is that in fact what's happening inside Ukraine, as Secretary Kerry said, Ukraine has not taken the bait that Russia has offered, a comparison to what happened in Georgia in 2008. And, indirectly, even a lot of people who were supportive of the former President Yanukovych are now defending Ukrainian sovereignty.

So the risk for Putin is that he's actually unifying Ukraine in perhaps ways that he didn't anticipate.

COOPER: And is it possible he's also unifying Ukraine in a more Western direction, even among those who maybe previously were focused more on Russia?

CROWLEY: Well, that's the danger, and, of course, that's the decision that the next government, the one that's elected in May, will have to make.

Does it go back into negotiations with the E.U. on a cooperation agreement that might eventually lead to accession within the E.U., and at the same time, can the new government find a way to reestablish a comfort level, a working relationship with Russia and try to allay some of the concerns that Putin has laid out, right or wrong, in his narrative?

COOPER: Yes, which given geography, they're going to have to do. They're going to have to relations with Russia no matter what.

Jim Sciutto, appreciate it, P.J. Crowley as well.

I want to bring in CNN Pentagon correspondent Barbara Starr, who's been monitoring developments today and really over the last several days in relation to Ukraine.

Barbara, two U.S. officials have confirmed to CNN that Russia has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile. Put this into context for us. Is there any reason for concern? And is there any evidence that this missile testing is linked to the situation in the Ukraine or was this something that was preplanned?

BARBARA STARR, CNN PENTAGON CORRESPONDENT: Well, officials are telling us, Anderson, it was preplanned.

I think the headline here is just how sensitive, how tense the situation is. Things can be misconstrued. There can be miscalculation. That's the big worry. In this case, we are told that this missile test was notified to the United States before the crisis erupted with Ukraine and Russia, that the U.S. knew it was coming, that the Russians gave them the correct notification procedure, that they notified them it would happen in a four-hour period, in a four- hour window.

And that's exactly what happened earlier today. The test-firing took place in Kazakstan, landing in a remote area. All of that said, you know, these things can -- these tense situations, any factor that's not fully understood can spin things out of control, so in this case the United States wanted to make it very clear they knew about this, it was preplanned.

Perhaps the unanswered question is, couldn't Putin have delayed it? Preplanned or not, he decided to go ahead with it at this very tense time -- Anderson.

COOPER: And, Barbara, I'm curious to hear what you have been hearing from the Pentagon today on or off the record. When Vladimir Putin says that the Russian forces on the ground are not in fact Russian forces, that they're just militias, self-defense, local militias, given their uniforms, given their level of armament and evidence -- evident experience, does anyone in the Pentagon buy that? Because nobody on the ground certainly here in Kiev buys that and none of the reporters in the Crimea buy that as well.

STARR: No. You know, maybe there's a few people that are, you know, hired on for this operation, but make no mistake, this is Russian military capability you see there.

I think the president of the United States even said it on Friday, Russian military moves. You are seeing helicopters. You're seeing artillery, armored vehicles on the ground. Regardless of whether the men on the ground, the armed men ripped their shoulder patches off or not, this is Russian military capability you see there.

They had thousands of forces at Sevastopol even prior to this, all of that under an agreement they had with Ukraine. Some of those moved out into the countryside. They put additional forces in, and they still have more than 100,000 forces just across the border. That's what the U.S. is watching very carefully right now, Anderson.

They believe, the U.S. believes Putin might make up his mind in the next couple of days about what his next military steps are going to be. No one can read his mind at this point. There's no predictions. But I have to tell you, everyone I am talking to says they are watching with laser focus to get any indication, collect all the intelligence they can to see if they can divine what he might do next -- Anderson.

COOPER: All right, yes, something no administration over the last several years has had much luck in doing. Barbara Starr, appreciate it.

Coming up next, is Russia allowed to send troops into Ukraine? Are there prior existing treaties that allow that? We're learning more about the situation there, details of a 1997 treaty signed by the two countries and why Russian President Vladimir Putin may use it to try to defend his actions in Crimea. The question is, is that legitimate? We will talk about that ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COOPER: Hey. Welcome back. I'm Anderson Cooper reporting live from Kiev.

I'm at one of the entrances to Independence Square, where there are still hundreds of protesters who are camping out here who are determined to stay here until they see the change that they fought and they died for starting to actually take root with the new government here in Ukraine.

I'm actually in front of what's really a shrine where there are thousands of flowers. And this is just one of dozens of shrines all throughout Independence Square, if not hundreds of shrines. And there's an enormous barricade here. You may not be able to see it in the darkness, a barricade made out of tires, made out of corrugated steel, made out of fences, sandbags, whatever people could get.

It was a barricade used against riot police about a little more than a week-and-a-half ago, when some of the fiercest fighting took place. And this is just the first line of defense on this street heading into Independence Square. There's about five or six levels of barricades going into the square.

And this is on all the streets that feed into Independence Square. As you know, thousands of Russian troops now occupy Crimea in the southeast of this country, a peninsula in Southern Ukraine, this occupation taking place on land and in the sea as well, with Russian warships today blocking the narrow Kerch Strait between Crimea and Russia.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a press conference today and says that the 22,000 estimated troops in Crimea are not Russian soldiers. Most experts on the ground say that's completely ridiculous, that's completely not true. He says they are self-defense teams and he insists this is not an invasion.

He may be technically right. In 1997, Russia and Ukraine signed a treaty which may allow up to 25,000 Russian troops in Crimea without it being considered an invasion.

Ken Dilanian, an intelligence and national security reporter at "The Los Angeles Times," joins us now.

Ken, what more can you tell us about this treaty? Because my understanding of it, even though it may allow that number of troops, it has to be done or any movement of troops has to be done with the cooperation of the Ukrainian government, correct?

KEN DILANIAN, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES": Yes, Anderson, that's my understanding as well.

And I was reading through the treaty this morning, and it talks a lot about mutual respect for sovereignty and territory. So, clearly, there's a case to be made that the Russians are violating the treaty with the actions that they have taken.

But CIA Director John Brennan in conversations with a key lawmaker on Monday was sort of raising the issue of this treaty as an example of what Putin could say to justify his actions and why, you know, they're not calling it an invasion. I mean, the troops are allowed to be based there, up to 25,000, and so it seems like they're still under that threshold. And so that may be -- I guess Putin is taking a different line today, but ultimately that could be -- that could be the case he makes.

COOPER: I read the article that you wrote in "The L.A. Times" and it's really fascinating. I don't think a lot of people knew about this treaty or the particulars of it.

It's interesting, though. It took less than 24 hours for Russian troops to assume control of Crimea. Was the United States completely caught off-guard? What do we know about the intelligence, U.S. intelligence on the situation in Ukraine, particularly in Crimea?

DILANIAN: Well, it seems like there was a mixed picture offered by the intelligence community.

I'm learning today, you know, one agency appears to have said, no, we don't think this is going to happen and the CIA may have said, we think it's a possibility. Nobody -- nobody is suggesting though that there was a good, solid prediction made that this was going to happen. There's a sense that the administration was caught a little bit flat- footed and there's a sense that our sources, U.S. intelligence sources in this region aren't great.

Let's face it. We spent more than a decade with terrorism being the top priority, and so, you know, the question is, have traditional espionage muscles, stealing secrets, recruiting sources to get this kind of information, have those atrophied and did we see that play out in this case?

But -- so there appears to have been at least some intelligence assessment that this movement of troops was a possibility last week.

COOPER: So that's interesting. You wrote about this again in your article, but that the fight against terrorism over the last 10-plus years has actually -- may have actually atrophied U.S. intelligence capabilities in other non-terror-related areas, like Russia, like territories like Ukraine?

DILANIAN: Yes, that's certainly what you hear from former case officers, CIA people who spent their lives in this endeavor, that, you know, the career path that was most rewarded over the last decade was counterterrorism.

And books have been written about this. The CIA has excelled at manhunting over the last decade and killing people with drones, and finding terrorists in the tribal regions of Pakistan. And less emphasis, perhaps, has been placed on the traditional art of espionage, of recruiting a Russian colonel at this base in Crimea that could tell you when troops were on the move.

And so the people that I have talked to with experience in this region say it's likely that the agency sources are not great on this question of Russia's intentions and what was going to happen with the troops.

COOPER: Interesting.

Ken Dilanian, I appreciate you being on. Thank you very much, this afternoon.

The markets reacting to the events going on in Crimea and in Ukraine, after tanking yesterday, the Dow in the United States up almost 250 points right now. We will explain what's behind the big turnaround when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COOPER: Welcome back to our continuing coverage live from Kiev of the crisis here in Ukraine.

Stocks in the United States are back up after worries over a military conflict between Russia and Ukraine subsided somewhat. Take a look at this. The Dow in the United States is up about 250 points. The S&P reached a new all-time high. And Nasdaq hit a 14-year high.

Rana Foroohar joins us now. She's our global economic analyst.

Rana, the European and Asian markets also did well today. This is obviously a big turnaround from just yesterday. What's going on?

RANA FOROOHAR, CNN ANALYST: Well, in short, Putin called back the troops to their barracks. We're not worried about an out-and-out military conflict blowing up right now, and that has calmed markets.

They were very worried about that yesterday. I think that the reason you're seeing the U.S. markets in particular go up is that the U.S. still looks like the best bet in a very tumultuous global market. I think that you're still going to see a lot of volatility in commodity stocks, any kind of banks or energy companies that have exposure to Russia or the entire region, and that was really the big worry yesterday, the flow of gas from Russia into Europe.

Europe gets about 40 percent of its natural gas from Russia. A lot of those pipelines flow right through the Ukraine. So there were worries that in the middle of winter, you might have gas and energy shortages in Europe. Those worries have now subsided somewhat, and markets are calming.

COOPER: All right, Rana Foroohar, appreciate the update. And when Rana mentioned President Vladimir Putin calling troops back to their barracks, she was talking about the military exercise that was taking place in Russian territory on the borders with Crimea and with Ukraine. Those military exercises were called to a halt. Obviously, there are still Russian forces on the ground outside their barracks in Crimea.

Russian moves troops into Crimea. Their military exercises in Russia, which as we just talked about, were finally called to an end. And we just confirmed today that Russia also fired a long-range missile. So, what can we learn from the military moves? Coming up next, we are going to talk to General James "Spider" Marks about Vladimir Putin's strategy in Crimea.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)