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Crimea Referendum; Ukraine the New Georgia?

Aired March 06, 2014 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Here we go. Top of the hour. I'm Brooke Baldwin. And thank you so much for being with me here on this Thursday.

A huge, huge day of news just minutes apart, pressing one singular message. You had President Barack Obama, Secretary of State John Kerry both reinforcing this message, that there is now a unified international move to get Russia to back off from Ukraine. Each spoke within the last hour on this escalating crisis that we've been watching here because you have thousands now of Russian troops occupying Crimea, this is the heavily pro-Russian peninsula there in Ukraine.

And, today, lawmakers there voted to join Russia and to put the final call, the final vote on this proposed referendum to the people. That happens in 10 days. We're going to get to that because the president, really top of mind today. He addressed this referendum head on, talked about how the U.S. has become the first nation to impose sanctions to pressure Russia. The U.S. is limiting the travel and seizing assets from Ukrainians and Russians who have played a part in this current crisis in Ukraine. And the EU, the European Union, is moving, according to the president, in the same direction, same response here of sanctions. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I am confident we are moving forward together. United in our determination to oppose actions that violate international law and to support the government and people of the Ukraine. And that includes standing up for the principal of state sovereignty. The proposed referendum on the future of Crimea would violate the Ukrainian constitution and violate international law. Any discussion about the future of Ukraine must include the legitimate government of Ukraine.

In 2014, we are well beyond the days when borders can be redrawn over the heads of democratic leaders. While we take these steps, I want to be clear that there's also a way to resolve this crisis that respects the interests of the Russian Federation, as well as the Ukrainian people. Let international monitors into all of Ukraine, including Crimea, to insure the rights of all Ukrainians are being respected, including ethnic Russians.

JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: And we believe that Russia has the opportunity now, together with the rest of us, but Russia particularly has the opportunity now to make the right choices in order to deescalate. The United States also has choices to make. And President Obama has been clear that we cannot allow Russia or any country to defy international law with impunity. There's no place in the community of nations for the kind of aggression and steps that we have seen taken in Crimea, in Ukraine, in these last days. So today, as we announced we would last week, we have taken specific steps and the State Department also has taken steps in response to what has occurred. Starting today, at President Obama's direction, the State Department is putting in place tough visa restrictions on a number of officials and other individuals.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Two different parts of the world, one message. We have a full plate here. I want to have a big discussion on this. We have, at the White House, our senior correspondent there, Jim Acosta, host of "The Situation Room," Wolf Blitzer standing by for us in Washington, our chief national security correspondent Jim Sciutto, and our chief political analyst Gloria Borger.

So welcome to all of you.

And we've been watching every single minute of how this has so quickly developed over the last, what now, several days, weeks even. But, Jim Acosta, let me begin with you -

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Sure.

BALDWIN: Because that was a pretty quick hustle because no one really knew if the president was going to step in front of those cameras until just minutes before he did.

ACOSTA: Right.

BALDWIN: And really addressed this issue of this proposed referendum in Crimea in 10 days very clearly saying it would violate not only the Ukrainian constitution, but international law.

ACOSTA: That's right, Brooke. And I think because some of these developments are so fast moving, the president was almost forced to address that one particular item at the briefing within the last hour. I mean the possibility that Crimea could vote to join Russia, I mean that was something that this White House had to weigh in on. And I can tell you from having conversations with senior administration officials all week, they have been giving the indication, and the president basically said so at the podium just a few minutes ago, that they are not giving up Crimea. That Crimea is not going to become part of Russia as a result of this crisis.

And so you heard the president say that that would be a violation of international law, that would be a violation of Ukraine's constitution, that the international community would not stand for it. And then I went back to Jay Carney on camera during the briefing and asked the same thing, is there any way Crimea would be given up as a way out of that crisis? And he said, no. And you heard John Kerry across the Atlantic basically say the same thing, that Crimea is Ukraine. So they had to get that out of the way. BALDWIN: Yes.

ACOSTA: The other thing that was interesting to point out in this briefing, Brooke, and we sort of went after Jay on this on a couple of different occasions, was to try to figure out what these sanctions are up to and what they're basically saying at this point is that they haven't identified individuals and targets as of this point that are going to be sanctioned, but that they've pulled out the tool kit, so to speak, and that that tool kit is available to start imposing initial sanctions on individuals, on enemies, Russian, Ukrainian, that were involved in destabilizing the situation in Crimea.

And, of course, everybody was asking over and over again, what about Putin? Is he being named here? Is he being targeted here? The White House just would not specifically say that.

BALDWIN: OK.

ACOSTA: But we understand from talking to administration officials that that's not what they have in store at this point.

BALDWIN: Yes. I think that the key adjective, initial sanctions. This could be really the first wave.

ACOSTA: (INAUDIBLE).

BALDWIN: I want to get to what John Kerry said because I know Elise Labott got the first question in. She's on the phone with me from Rome.

Elise, I'm coming to you in a minute.

But, Wolf Blitzer, I was listening to your conversation post Obama talk there in the Briefing Room, specifically with former American diplomat Nicholas Burns. And I think the word he used was he was farcical when it comes to this referendum in Crimea in 10 days. But then the president followed up and said, if they violate international law, the response will remain firm. That sounded pretty nebulous to me.

WOLF BLITZER, ANCHOR, CNN'S "THE SITUATION ROOM": Well;, they're holding open - you know, holding back a little bit on the specifics. And as Jim Acosta was noting, they haven't released names of individual Russians who will be targeted, who won't be allowed to travel and who will have their assets frozen if they have assets in western banks. For example, they're not naming entities, businesses. A lot of Russian businesses have operations in Europe, in the United States. They're not naming those. That, presumably, would be the next step. If you watch (ph) the Treasury Department, for example, when they impose sanctions on entities and individuals from Iran or from Syria, that's what they do, they name names, they name companies, they go after them. They try to make life as difficult, as unpleasant for them as possible. So that would be the next step hovering over the Russians.

Having said that, if you do that to the Russians, you've got to expect Putin will retaliate in kind.

BALDWIN: Of course.

BLITZER: And this whole escalation that's making the Germans especially but others in Europe very nervous because, as you know and as by now all of our viewers know, they get so much of their energy from Russia and those pipe lines that go across Ukraine. And if that stops, the economic recovery that we've seen in Europe over the past year or two, that could be slowed down dramatically.

BALDWIN: Elise Labott on the phone in Rome. You got the first question, questions out of the gate to Secretary of State John Kerry. The first question you asked him was whether or not under any continue the U.S. would accept this referendum in 10 days in Crimea. What was his response to you?

ELISE LABOTT, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS REPORTER (via telephone): Well, Brooke, you have to make a distinction whether the U.S. would accept a referendum or the referendum as it stands right now. Right now Crimea - the Crimean people would vote on a referendum whether to join Russia. What Secretary Kerry was saying, and what U.S. officials have been saying privately is, listen, all Ukrainians would have to agree with this. The government would have to be involved in the setting of any kind of referendum and what would be involved in it.

And this is the kind of conundrum that the U.S. finds itself in because, obviously, it wants to protect the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but at the same time they are recognizing that the Crimean people do have a very close association with Russia and a lot of Ukrainians in the eastern part of the country have an association with Russia. So you hear Secretary Kerry emphasizing the whole time that Crimea is a very special interest to the Russians and we want to make sure that their interests are protected, that their occurrence are relayed. And so I don't think you're ever going to hear the U.S. say, as Jim was saying, we're going to give Crimea to the Russians.

But I think any way you slice it, when this is all over, even if you go back to the status quo, I think that most people would recognize that this is -- it used to be part of Russia. It kind of is -- has been and will effectively be a de facto Russian territory, Brooke.

BALDWIN: And then your follow-up, when we're showing these pictures of this Russian counterpart of John Kerry, Sergei Lavrov of Russia, saying basically, do you feel misled by him?

And, Jim Sciutto, I'd love for you just to give a little context. I mean Secretary Kerry, his answer was basically, you know, listen, we've talked a lot and either we're laughing about something, it's a lighter moment, or we're very vehemently disagreeing. And this is, obviously, one of those cases where we're disagreeing. I mean do you think these conversations, these multiple conversations they've been having, are they effective?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's hard to ignore the results, right? I mean Secretary Kerry, even today, the day when you have this referendum announcement saying that the preference is still the diplomatic path. And he noted that while the president has issued this executive order, it hasn't been acted on yet because the administration's preference remains talks, remains discussions, where you can bring not only the European allies on board, but get the Russians involved and so on. But as of yet, those talks aren't working. You know, they're still talking about talks.

Today, Secretary Lavrov said that he still has not found common ground with the U.S. or with the European allies. Secretary Kerry, it's been a priority for him to get the Russians sitting down with the Ukrainians. Lavrov with is Ukrainian counterpart. Even taking him on his plane from Kiev to Paris. That hasn't happened. They're still working on the format of what those talks would be.

And meanwhile, as those talks continue, the facts on the ground, as we've said a number of times, get further established. And this is a pattern, this is a strategy that Russia has used before with other territories, other countries in the near abroad. In Georgia, you had the invasion. Now you have two provinces there in effect under Russian control. They have a province in Moldova. You know, countries we never talk about on the air, but in Moldova, it is disputed now.

And because you have those provinces and those territories disputed in those countries, that makes it difficult for those countries to do things like join the EU or NATO et cetera. So, you know, as Elise has referred to there, you've got those facts on the ground and that no matter how this gets sliced up, no matter where we end up, Russia has exerted and demonstrated greater control over that region of Crimea. That makes it difficult for Ukraine to enter into other kinds of agreements that many of the people in that country may want to do, exercise their right to do.

BALDWIN: Gloria Borger, you're sitting there in Washington. You're listening to this whole conversation. What do you make of all of this?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL ANALYST: Look, I think the administration sort of has a double whammy on its hands. On the one hand, the European allies are not united on what to do about sanctions. On the other hand, you have this proposed referendum in Crimea, which, if it were to take place, would no doubt say, yes, you know, we want to be part of Russia. So the administration found itself in a position to have to come out and sort of try and put the genie back in the bottle and say, no, no, no, no, no, you can't do that. That would be a farce. It would be unconstitutional, et cetera. So I think the administration is in a very difficult situation right now because Putin, sort of sitting there, and even if there is an ambiguous result in Crimea, as Elise pointed out earlier, you know, it sort of - it is what it is. And what it is, is that Putin has gotten what he wanted.

BALDWIN: There's a pretty fascinating op-ed. We're going to talk to the man who wrote it today, just regarding Putin, whether or not he's just winging it. Whether this was, you know, a reaction to what happened within Ukraine or whether or not this is entirely strategic and the pros and cons of taking it that way. We're going to have that discussion later. All of you, thank you so much, Jim Acosta, Wolf Blitzer, Jim Sciutto and Gloria Borger and Elise Labott. Thank you all.

Other developments today in this fast moving story in the crisis in Ukraine, this scuttled Russian warship now blocks Ukrainian vessels from leaving a Crimean harbor. Ukraine's ministry of defense saying now seven of its ships are trapped as these pro and anti-Russian protests continue in Ukraine. A U.S. warship is now steaming toward the Black Sea as well. This guided missile destroyer is taking part in already planned naval exercises with Romania and Bulgaria. The U.S. is also adding six fighter jets to the NATO mission in the Baltics.

And right now you have the House and the Senate working on laws to publicly condemn the Russian president's moves on Crimea. One Senate bill calling for expelling Russia from the G-8.

So, stay with us. We have much more here on the crisis there. There is one person who could be key in solving this. Why the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, has one thing all these other leaders don't.

And later, if the situation in Ukraine looks familiar, it is. We touched on this a moment ago. What did we learn from the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008? Is history repeating itself? How can we stop it? We'll talk to the man who was at the Pentagon during the invasion. Stay here.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: And we continue our coverage of the crisis in Ukraine. And stop me if this sounds familiar. Seemingly out of nowhere, Russian troops invade a sovereign nation claiming the intervention is all designed to protect the Russian citizens living there. The U.S. scrambles, condemning the occupation.

I'm not talking about Ukraine currently here in 2014. I am talking about Georgia in 2008. The war with Georgia lasted five days. And for their troubles, Russia still technically remain in control of those two areas of Georgia you see in a minute. We're going to show you a map and we'll show you these two areas. You have Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

So the question now is this. There you have it. Will Ukraine and specifically this area we keep talking about, Crimea, would suffer the same fate? Joining me now, Dan Fata, vice president of The Cohen Group and deputy assistant secretary of defense for European and NATO policy during that invasion of Georgia, just a couple of years ago.

Welcome, Dan. Nice to have you on.

DAN FATA, VICE PRESIDENT, THE COHEN GROUP: Thanks for having me.

BALDWIN: So just on the surface, does it look like so far history is repeating itself?

FATA: Absolutely. Yes, they're - in my mind, there's no doubt that some of the same conditions and some of the same reasons as to why Putin decided to do what he did in 2008 in Georgia have been repeated here in Ukraine, in the Crimea.

BALDWIN: You point out, just reading some of your comments today, three goals. The U.S. should have three goals here. One, deter Russia from innovating even further. Two, reassure allies in the region that their security is, in fact, guaranteed. And, three, Russian gains must be rolled back. And on that final point, you said, you know, that didn't happen in 2008. So the question with the current crisis is, how do you roll back a man like Vladimir Putin?

FATA: Well, I mean, and that is the million dollar question right now. I - so roll back was hard. We haven't achieved it in Georgia. South Ossetia and Abkhazia are still, quote/unquote, "annexed" if you will under Russian control. It was all done with the - with the guys or the justification that Russia was protecting Russian citizens. OK, we're hearing the same in the Ukraine.

Today's events are real interesting. The next 10 days are going to be even more interesting. I was listening to the commentary from your colleagues earlier. There are two types of referendums. There's the one that's -- will be somewhat legitimate if all of Ukraine is able to vote, and then there's the one that will be illegitimate, that's just Crimea. The tough part here is, you have to understand why Putin did what he did in Georgia, he did what he did here for many reasons, but it simply comes down to, he's trying to reestablish Russian national pride. And by sort of taking these little areas, it shows that he and that Russia itself still can be a player. It's very dangerous.

BALDWIN: But that's the thing. You said, it's pride, because, you know, you can talk strategy all you want, but I keep going back to wondering if this is just -- has been so devastating, you know, the collapse of the Soviet Union and about pride and about ego. Is that really at the crux of this?

FATA: I think it is. You can - I used to work for Secretary Gates and Secretary Gates notes this in his recent book that the conversations he had with President Putin really highlighted the fact that Putin believed that we in the west didn't quite appreciate and understand just how humiliated and devastated the Russian people were after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Russian empire. And then this sort of pillaging that the west did in the '90s of Russia. And so he said to the secretary, which again the secretary has written about, is that the goal is to restore Russian national pride. And he believes Russia still has power to exert and influence to exert on the international stage. He's never said whether it's going to be positive or negative. And to date he hasn't really exerted positive influence on the world stage. So it's really to show the Russian people that things - that Russia can be a player.

BALDWIN: So just uber oversimplifying hurt feelings and pride and maybe a little ego, how does one speak Vladimir Putin's language? I don't know if this initial wave of sanctions that the administration and State Department have proposed really will do it. What will?

FATA: Well, so, if you want to speak Putin language - BALDWIN: Yes.

FATA: What you do is you trade. So, things that matter to Putin. Stopping any further NATO enlargement. Stopping the missile defense program in Europe. Those are two things right at the top that matter most to him. That's Putin speak. That's what he wants. He wants to show, one, he can deliver for his country and, two, by doing it by trading things. He doesn't have a lot that he can trade with us. It's really getting him to stop being a bad actor is what the trade is. But there's no guarantee.

Some of us in Washington have been debating for the past few months when this Ukraine crisis started in November.

BALDWIN: (INAUDIBLE).

FATA: Yes, when it started in November, what is the post Sochi, the post-Olympic Putin going to be like, because he needs to do something external from Russia in order to show that he's a player. And there's enough problems back home in Russia, economically, infrastructure, health care, that if he doesn't have an external distraction, then the laser beam is pointed on him. And so, therefore, he has to make hay somewhere else.

BALDWIN: Dan Fata, you were there at the DOD in 2008. We wanted to have you on again. Thank you so much. Appreciate your perspective.

FATA: Appreciate it. Thank you.

BALDWIN: The people of Crimea will have their say on whether to align with Russia, as we've been discussing. So next we'll go live to the capital to hear all the controversy surrounding this upcoming vote.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: The movement in Crimea to become part of Russia again picking up steam. Earlier today, the parliament voted to leave Ukraine. The legislature also scheduled a referendum where Crimean people will decide what they want to happen. And Anna Coren is live outside the Crimean parliament.

And as we mentioned, we know parliament voted to side with Russia. And then, 10 days from now, they say, it's up to the people.

ANNA COREN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, absolutely, a referendum has been called for the 16th of March, 10 days from now. And the question being put to the people here in Crimea is whether they want to stay with Ukraine or become part of the Russian Federation.

Now, Brooke, some of the people that we spoke to were born here when it was still part of the former Soviet Union. So these people feel that it's only right that Crimea returns to the motherland, if you like. You know, 60 percent of the people are Russian speakers. They are ethnic Russians and they have that very strong, you know, cultural and historical ties to Russia. And as far as the new government here in Crimea is concerned, they want to be closely aligned to Russia. They want to become part of Russia. They are done with Ukraine. they don't want to become part of the European Union whatsoever. So that is the landscape at the moment.

And just to show you how closely aligned this new government wants to be to Russia, today they said that the only troops that should be in Crimea are Russian troops. Any other troops would be considered as an occupying force and they said that Ukrainian troops here in Crimea have been given an ultimatum that they either swear their allegiance to Russia or they leave. And they have guarantee that they will be given safe passage out of Crimea.

BALDWIN: OK, Anna Coren, thank you very much.

Before we go to break, just want to clear up something. In an interview last hour with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, was asked him to respond to a statement from the intelligence community defending their handling of the crisis in Ukraine. And, unfortunately, a statement from the CIA about a different matter was used in error. So CNN regrets that error.

Coming up next, the future of Ukraine my lie in this vote we continue to discuss, just 10 days away, this proposed referendum. Next, we will talk to a woman who was there weeks ago. She's an expert on this part of the world and we'll ask her how she thinks the crisis will play out and how the people there truly are split. Stay here.

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