Return to Transcripts main page

CNN Newsroom

Crisis in Ukraine

Aired March 06, 2014 - 15:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: And we kick off the top of the next hour here. I'm Brooke Baldwin with Ukraine, the crisis there. The American full-court press against Russia has official begun and U.S. has become the first nation to impose sanctions against Russia for sending military troops into Crimea, Ukraine.

The U.S. is limiting the travel and seizing assets from Ukrainians and Russians who have played a part in the crisis there. And the European Union, the E.U. moving toward the same response of sanctions.

Just this afternoon, just about two hours ago, President Obama took a moment in front of reporters in the Briefing Room at the White House talking about the unified international response. It still leaves Russia an option to protect ethnic Russians that President Vladimir Putin says are facing oppression under this new government. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I want to be clear that there is also a way to resolve this crisis that respects the interests of the Russian Federation, as well as the Ukrainian people.

Let international monitors into all of Ukraine, including Crimea, to ensure the rights of all Ukrainians are being respected, including ethnic Russians. Begin consultations between the government of Russia and Ukraine, with the participation of the international community.

Russia would maintain its basing rights in Crimea, provided that it abides by its agreements and respects Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: And minutes after the president spoke, across the Atlantic Ocean, we listened to Secretary of State John Kerry in Rome repeating this message that sanctions are necessary to show Vladimir Putin that he cannot, cannot defy international law.

Secretary Kerry met with Russia's foreign minister today, urging Sergei Lavrov to begin direct talks with Ukraine.

So the U.S. and Russia, we are talking face-to-face, the highest-level talks we have seen since Russian boots hit Ukrainian soil. Secretary of State John Kerry met with his counterpart, as we mentioned, Sergei Lavrov, earlier today on the sidelines on this conference in Rome. And CNN's Elise Labott is traveling with Secretary Kerry. She joins me now from Rome. Also want to bring in our chief national security correspondent, Jim Sciutto, and Eli Lake, senior national correspondent for The Daily Beast.

Welcome to all of you.

Elise Labott, let me begin with you, because you fired several questions to the secretary of state right out of the gate today after he made a couple of comments, and one of which was his relationship with Sergei Lavrov, specifically you asked if Secretary Kerry feels misled. This is his response to you.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KERRY, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: With respect to the relationship with Foreign Minister Lavrov, it's professional, as all my relationships are with any foreign minister. There are moments in the course of a meeting over a year where you may be able to laugh at something and there are moments where you disagree and disagree very strongly. And we work professionally, both of us, to represent our countries, represent our point of views and try to get the work of diplomacy done.

This is obviously where we have disagreement.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: So, disagreement here. These men continue to talk.

Do you think it's been successful? It seems like it's just a lot of talking.

ELISE LABOTT, CNN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Brooke, I think it's important to talk and I don't think it's a total wash, because a couple of days ago, the Russians were not talking to anyone. They were just speaking with their troops on the ground in Crimea and having a lot of fiery rhetoric.

Secretary Kerry has met with Foreign Minister Lavrov three times, four times actually in the last 36 hours, along with some of his foreign minister counterparts from Europe. I think there is a diplomatic path forward. We're talking, President Obama laid it out, this kind of contact group, a group of concerned nations which would bring Ukraine and Russia into the same room. But it also protects Russian interests.

I think at the end of this, President Putin will get what he wants. I think the concern was all along, not that he was going to officially annex Crimea, but that as this fledgling Ukrainian government was moving towards Europe, that Crimea would be lost from Russia entirely.

We see that's not going to be the case. Even though you will never have the U.S. say to Russia, OK, you can have the Crimea, this is always going to be a de facto Russian territory. BALDWIN: The conversation from President Obama also, right off the bat, saying this is absolutely, this proposed referendum in 10 days in Crimea would not only against Ukrainian constitution, it would be against international law.

I'm curious, Jim Sciutto, because you know this region oh so well. In terms of just trying to get inside, and I know it's impossible, but getting inside of Vladimir Putin's head and trying to speak the language of Vladimir Putin, what would one have to do to get him to stop? Because one day, it's Crimea. Maybe he has his sights set on Kiev.

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, this is the issue. I haven't heard officials say he has his sights set on Kiev.

But he does -- if you look at precedent here, this is a tactic he has used before, used it in Georgia, right?

BALDWIN: Right.

SCIUTTO: Boots on the ground and he was able to separate two regions of Georgia that now are effectively under Russian control.

He has done it in Moldova, another country, little countries, like we said earlier, that we don't talk about often, but they are right in Europe and these are important things where he establishes some control there that makes it difficult for those countries to maintain territorial integrity and do things like join the E.U. and NATO, et cetera.

Clearly, the administration doesn't want to speak the language of Vladimir Putin. They keep saying that Vladimir Putin is speaking a different language and one not based on the facts. It was interesting hearing Secretary Kerry turning some somersaults here, giving a very diplomatic answer. Does he trust Kerry? And he said we have a professional relationship.

It was interesting. Last week, he was asked, does he trust Putin because Putin has made some promises and didn't follow through on them. He said, well, trust is a factor in the relationship, not exactly an endorsement. Clearly, they are feeling burned by this and the facts, as we watch them lay out, the results so far of these talks, yes, they are talking, but they haven't gotten the results they want. This relationship, at a, it's minimum challenged.

BALDWIN: Challenged.

(CROSSTALK)

SCIUTTO: Another diplomatic word.

BALDWIN: I was about to say, somersaults from you, Jim Sciutto, a little bit playing it safe, as you should.

But, Eli Lake, as we talk about Georgia -- I was talking to Dan Fata -- he was working under Secretary Gates at the DOD back in 2008, because I think it's so important to talk about what happened in Georgia. I was just checking your Twitter feed. And I'm so glad you were questioning.

When we talk about Georgia, and Putin not really at the time paying a hefty price for that invasion. And how much do you think -- it's a question you posed, but I want to ask you, how much you think that influenced his decision and dare I say ego in his current moves in Ukraine?

ELI LAKE, THE DAILY BEAST: If you look at the invasion of Georgia, it happens at the very end of Bush's second term.

There wasn't much of a response at the time. And then when the Obama administration comes in, it introduces the reset, which I think is perceived not only by Moscow, but in many ways publicly as saying let's let bygones be bygones. There are two sides of the story. Perhaps the last administration was too bellicose. We are a new team. Let's work on what we can work on.

But the effect was that Putin never spent and Russia never spent any time in the penalty box for invading another country and exercising its influence in that way. I think that that must be a factor in Moscow's kind of strategic gaming out, which is what can they really do to stop us?

What we have heard from the White House are kind of very targeted sanctions at this point. They haven't announced who they are. We assume Russian officials and perhaps Ukrainian pro-Russian officials who were involved in this.

That's significant and it's certainly an irritant. But I don't think you heard anything yet and I don't think you have seen unity in terms of action with Europe that would be enough to stop Putin in his tracks at this point.

BALDWIN: Eli Lake, Jim Sciutto, Elise Labott, thank you all very much for joining me in that discussion.

But I want to just get some reaction to President Obama's message, because, as I mentioned, he said this proposed referendum in Crimea in 10 days to possibly join Russia would violate the Ukrainian constitution and international law.

Let's get reaction to that from CNN political analyst John Avlon.

John Avlon, welcome.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Hey, Brooke.

BALDWIN: Can the president's words -- and, again, as Eli was just mentioning, we haven't heard any specific names here as we talk about these sanctions, but can the words today maybe kick-start this impasse, end the impasse between Kerry and Lavrov?

AVLON: Look, it's a step in the right direction if only because the U.S. is leading again on the issue of sanctions. The E.U., the European community can't seem to get it together, in part because they are so economically entwined by Russia. They're easily intimidated by the repercussions of those sanctions.

The fact that the president, yesterday he was off giving campaign- style speeches, but today he went back in front of the reporters and focused on the number one issue in the world today. The U.S. is at least leading in these targeted sanctions. It's a small step, but a step in the right direction.

BALDWIN: He said too before he left the podium in there Briefing Room, he took this fight and he asked them to hurry up and support American aid to the Ukraine. What kind of resistance have we seen on that so far?

AVLON: Really, if this gets politicized, then we are in deeper trouble than we think. We have seen this constant battle between self-government and self-sabotage in our Congress. But it really shouldn't extend.

The old idea that partisanship ought to end at the water's edge really should apply here. There should be total moral clarity. What Putin is trying to pull is an Soviet-era technique to try to use the appearance of a referendum to allow virtual or potential annexation of territory. This is an old tactic. It's a dictator's tactic and it can't be allowed to exist and overwhelm democracies in the 21st century full-stop.

BALDWIN: The president -- I'm looking for my notes because when he was talking today, this is what he ultimately said. He said if the violation of international law continues, being, i.e., this potential referendum, today's response will remain firm. As I mentioned, he hasn't named names when it comes to sanctions.

At what point do you think the administration, the White House needs to be perhaps be a bit more forceful?

AVLON: I think it will be in the coming days. We are in that delicate point of diplomacy where language is muted. Everything is phrased in fairly benign ways because of the hard work of diplomacy is going on. That's infinitely preferable to the alternative.

You want to give a little bit breathing room. You want to give that so-called off-ramp. The situation seems to have paused, as Putin realizes the international community is not simply going to roll over for his expansionist ambitions. But I think you will see more specifics and you will see names being named and ratcheting up the pressure to go along with the diplomacy, because that will force the Russians' minds and make them realize they can't simply try to reassert the Romanov era borders by force of will in the 21st century.

BALDWIN: The president said here we are in 2014, well beyond the days of borders being redrawn over the heads of democratic leaders. John Avlon, thank you very much.

Coming up next, we will take you live to Crimea. Secretary of State John Kerry said Crimea is Ukraine, but this referendum we continue talking about gives the citizens there they say a right to become part of Russia. We are live outside the Crimean parliament for you next on what we are really hearing on the ground.

Also ahead, Russian President Putin seems like quite a force when it comes to international politics, but could he be when it comes to the crisis currently in Ukraine? Is he winging it and is he improvising, calling shots on the fly? My next guest said perhaps. We will discuss. A lot happening. Stay with me.

You are watching CNN.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: We are staying on top of our breaking coverage of what is happening in Ukraine, Russia saying it has not found common ground with its partners on solving the crisis.

President Obama, we showed you a moment ago, speaking today, really reiterating that Crimea's attempts to join the Russian Federation would not only violate the Ukrainian constitution, it would violate international law.

And then there's this, these pictures. Ukraine says Russian forces sank an old Russian warship and now it's trapping Ukrainian ships in a Crimean harbor. They can't go anywhere. Then you have the pro- Russian groups gathering outside the Crimean parliament.

Let's take you there now to Anna Coren.

Anna, here's what I want to know, because you have this backdrop of Russian troops there. I'm curious in talking to Ukrainians what they are telling you and how they will feel going into this vote, this proposed referendum 10 days from now.

ANNA COREN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Certainly, Brooke.

People here in Crimea are very much pro-Russian. They have welcomed this referendum, calling it people power. So, 16th of March, the people of Crimea will vote on whether they stay with Ukraine or break away and become part of the Russian Federation.

We spoke to people who were born here when it was still part of the Soviet Union. There are extremely close ties between Crimea and Russia. And 60 percent of the people in Crimea are ethnic Russians. Just those ties of very strong and they do see it as if they would be returning to the motherland.

As far as troops go, Brooke, we were at a military base earlier today and there were Russian troops on the ground. There's no doubt about it. Vladimir Putin has said that that is not the case. We can confirm that it is true. They are not necessarily wearing the insignia, but they are flying the Russian flag and certainly the Ukrainian commander who we spoke to of this base that has been occupied and taken over said that the people there, the forces, they are Russian. BALDWIN: Anna Coren outside the parliament there on the Crimean Peninsula, Ann, thank you.

Coming up, is Russian President Vladimir Putin just for lack of a better phrase winging it? Why my next guest says Putin's move could all be improv. That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: The politicians, the pundits, people have all been asking the same question. What is Vladimir Putin's endgame? What is this man trying to do here with the crisis in Ukraine?

My next guest offers this as a possibility. He calls his piece "Putin's Improv Act." The thing is, Putin may not know. This article, this is from TheAtlantic.com. Dominic Tierney asks: "What if, like the Soviets in 1979" -- he's talking specifically about Afghanistan there -- "Putin is basically winging it?"

Tierney is an associate professor of political science at Swarthmore College.

Dominic Tierney, welcome. Great to have you on.

DOMINIC TIERNEY, "THE ATLANTIC": Great. It's my pleasure to be here.

BALDWIN: Out of the gate, in your gut, do you think Vladimir Putin could be winging this?

TIERNEY: Well, no one can tell for sure.

Perhaps Vladimir can tell for sure, but a lot of commentators have leapt to the conclusion that Putin is a strategic master, that he's a chess player thinking 10 moves ahead and this is all part of his grand plan for regional domination.

But I actually think that the move, the intervention in Crimea doesn't make a lot of strategic sense. It may well be a case of improvisation, rather than grand strategic thinking, that really this Russian move was thrown together in the last couple weeks in a makeshift way.

BALDWIN: The last couple of weeks post-Sochi. Let me quote you.

"Facing a new and unexpected environment, Putin could have cobbled together a plan on the fly. After all, if an aggressive move into Crimea had long been in the works, why would Putin bother spending $50 billion to boost Russia's global image at the Winter Olympics in Sochi? Any public relations gains just went up in smoke."

The follow-up to that would be, could it be good a thing, could it be a bad thing if he wining it? I could think, if he is winging it, then he doesn't really have that final step out mapped out; therefore, he could get trapped.

TIERNEY: Right. I think that that's absolutely correct. On the one hand, you think, well, better that he is improvising than that he has this clear program of aggression in the region. But actually I think it's very dangerous if this is the kind of makeshift plan that I'm outlining, because it's very uncertain. There's a chance of misperception. He's not thinking two moves ahead.

And, as you say, he could easily get trapped in a situation that he is not expecting. At the top of the segment, you mentioned the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

BALDWIN: Right.

TIERNEY: Moscow went into Afghanistan in an improvised operation. They thought they would be out in a few months. It wasn't part of a grand scheme. And of course it turned into a decade-long counterinsurgency. It's known as the Soviet Vietnam, because it was their quagmire.

BALDWIN: I want to little play a sound from Hillary Clinton. Roll it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON, FORMER U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: I know we are dealing with a tough guy with a thin skin. And I know that his political vision is of a greater Russia.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Tough guy, thin skin. Do you agree?

TIERNEY: I think there is truth in that.

And I think Putin does have some wider ideas and a broader agenda, and he is concerned, of course, about whether Ukraine is in the pro- Russian or the pro-Western camp. The question is, was this move part of a long-planned operation, part of a grand strategic endeavor? I think, more likely, it was thrown together in the last few weeks, and Putin does not have a 10-step sort of chess strategy. And that, in some ways, is extremely dangerous.

BALDWIN: So, then you end your peace talking creating this face- saving path of retreat for Putin. How would one do that?

TIERNEY: Right.

So let's say Putin is interested in trying to find a compromise resolution here.

BALDWIN: If, yes.

TIERNEY: The problem is that -- if -- and it is a big if.

But the problem is that the Russian president has put the Russian flag down, and it's very difficult for great powers like Russia to just retreat. So we need to find a face-saving path by which Russia can extricate itself from the Ukraine.

For example, there could be international monitors to look after the interests of the Russian speakers in the region, something that Putin could point to, to justify his retreat, because, otherwise, he is not going to sacrifice his own image and the nation's image. And he could get trapped in a much bigger operation than perhaps he originally envisaged.

BALDWIN: International monitors, something even the president, President Obama mentioned today, speaking from the White House.

Dominic Tierney, thank you very much.

Coming up, Anderson Cooper is in Kiev, in the capital, in Independence Square. We will take you live there, show you what he is seeing on the ground.

And how do Ukrainians feel about the possibility of Crimea joining the Russian Federation?

Also ahead, President Obama making his feelings known about Vladimir Putin and his moves, answering the Russian president's occupation of Crimea with diplomacy and some sanctions. We will talk about that next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)