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Mystery of Flight 370

Aired March 20, 2014 - 14:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

BROOKE BALDWIN, CNN ANCHOR: Wolf Blitzer, thank you. I will take it right here. I'm Brooke Baldwin. Great to be with you on this Thursday as we continue here on this hunt for Flight 370.

Take a look at this. These images right here, they have just changed everything. Because five days ago now the satellite spotted these two mysterious objects here 14 miles apart. So these images, they have been scrutinized and analyzed, and finally released to the public.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN YOUNG, AUSTRALIAN MARITIME SAFETY AUTHORITY: This is a lead. It is probably the best lead we have right now. But we need to get there, find them, see them, assess them to know whether it's really meaningful or not.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Caution in every word there. But the bottom line, Flight 370 could be resting some 1500 miles off the coast of Australia in the unforgiving waters of the southern Indian Ocean. Of course until they find these objects, whatever this is, obviously we can't be sure about this. But let's stick with what we are sure of. We know one of these objects is huge. This one here just about 24 meters long or 79 feet long. The other is similar. Five meters, 16 feet.

So the find was announced by Australia's prime minister, no less, as planes were immediately dispatched to scour the area. Where they think this debris may now be? But here's the other factor. Wild weather and eventually nightfall. That ended the search, but we are learning a merchant Norwegian ship is there searching the area through the night using the high powered lights that they have and as the search is continuing to figure out what the heck this is, let's go back to the families.

We cannot forget the families who have just been told about this possible debris find. Some of them not wanting to believe this is how the search could end.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SARAH BAJC, PARTNER OF PASSENGER ON FLIGHT 370: So it's enough to make us all anxious again after a couple days of quiet, but you know I'm cautiously pessimistic that it's not a piece of the plane. I keep hoping that somebody took this flight for a reason, which means they would have preserved it and tried to hide it someplace. Tried to take it someplace. So if this debris is indeed part of -- part of that plane, then that dashes that wishful thinking to pieces.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: Wow. After the families are wondering and waiting for confirmation on what this possible debris is, a development that may lead to some answers about how or why this missing airliner went off course.

Let's go to Washington for that to CNN's Rene Marsh, because this new nugget we have just learned this has to do with that pilot's at-home flight simulator we talked so much about.

What are you learning about that?

RENE MARSH, CNN AVIATION AND GOVERNMENT REGULATION CORRESPONDENT: Well, Brooke, a U.S. official telling CNN that the FBI team examining the computer hard drive and the flight simulator software belonging to the pilot of Flight 370, well, they are confident that they will be able to recover at least some, some of the deleted information.

BALDWIN: Yes.

MARSH: Investigators, they are working on that at the FBI headquarters in Quantico, Virginia. They are in the very early stages of trying to retrieve the purged files. They did not, though, Brooke, give any timeline on how long this could take.

BALDWIN: OK. So they'll be able to find at least some of what was deleted and then the next question obviously is why but they'll get to that.

Number two, you have learned how key a role the NTSB and FAA played in this new discovery that we were talking about in the ocean -- possible debris here.

MARSH: Right. So, I mean, we were dealing with such a massive search area here, to north and to the south. But the NTSB and the FAA that compiled all of the relevant data that they had available, they considered water movement, radar data that showed the path of the plane. They assumed the plane's speed. And from all of that information, they derived a possible search area in the southern part of the Indian Ocean. Now today we have the satellite images which you are looking at a while ago.

BALDWIN: Yes. It shows images of possible debris from that plane. Now authorities in Australia say what makes these images so credible is that it places the debris in the same general area as where the NTSB and the FAA data says that plane may have made its last known satellite connection.

So, Brooke, those Australian authorities they also say why this is credible, the estimated size of the debris. It says that the largest piece, about 78 feet, and the others are smaller pieces, but they're all in the same area. So that could indicate a debris field. Brooke, I just want to show you something here.

BALDWIN: Sure.

MARSH: I mean, we've been using this but this is the best time to use this, to demonstrate what we're talking about here. So the largest debris, 78 feet, it really could be a piece of a 777 where you talk about the 777, we know the wing is nearly 200 feet. However, if this plane at a certain speed crashes into the water, that is the equivalent of crashing into concrete. So this wing is just going to just break apart. So the 78 feet size of debris could very well be a part of the wing.

It could also be a part of the tail here. We know this is about 60 feet. However it doesn't break along the seams. Usually if this plane is going to break, it's going to break -- not along the seams because the seams are very reinforced. So it wouldn't be a neat break like this, it would be a part of the tail and perhaps a part of the fuselage. So if this is only 60 feet, part of the fuselage would make it about 78 feet.

But again, all speculation because they won't know anything until they get up close to that debris.

BALDWIN: Yes, I mean, we know it could be part of a shipping container, part of a ship.

MARSH: Yes.

BALDWIN: Even though this is not an often traveled route. They don't know. They're trying to find the debris first and foremost.

Rene Marsh, thank you very much on so many questions.

Let's keep the conversation going with New York oceanographer Arnold Gordon of Columbia University and Jennifer Gray here in studio with me with the CNN Weather Center.

So, Jennifer Gray, we've got a lot for you and I know -- Matt, just help me out. And I appreciate you working on this all day for us today. We're going to get to current and ocean depth in a minute but first the obvious, the weather.

JENNIFER GRAY, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Yes.

BALDWIN: Looking at my clock, it's about six hours away from sunrise in this part of the world. Will the weather cooperate?

GRAY: Yes. Like there's so many moving parts of this, just like you said.

BALDWIN: Yes.

GRAY: I mean, the weather was trouble yesterday. We had a front move through so visibility was low. We had clouds in the area and so that was the problem yesterday. But that has moved out. So it looks like things are going to improve as we go through the next 24 hours, even 48 hours. So we'll be looking at that.

Come with me, I'm going to show you the maps real quick.

BALDWIN: OK.

GRAY: And we're going to look at the satellite image and you can see these clouds have moved off to the north and east. This was all part of that front that came through the area. And so as that moves out, you can see clear skies there right now.

We're looking at rain now. Rain forecasted for the next 24 to 48 hours. It looks like most of it is going to be to the north and east of the area which is excellent news. And we're also looking at winds. Winds can be a huge factor. And this area is known for very, very strong winds. But winds aren't expected to get above 20 to 25 miles per hour as we go through the next 48 hours which is great, great news.

But there is roaring 40s, furious 50s, right in between that area so we can just really, really whip up good news. It looks like it's going to stay relatively calm over the next couple of days -- Brooke.

BALDWIN: OK. Jennifer, I'm coming back to you, and please, I want you to be a part of this -- this entire conversation if you have a question for the oceanographic, jump in.

But, Arnold, here's my first question to you. Beyond, you know, the weather, as a variable, sir, what are the other difficulties, the other challenges facing the search teams? Because the latest numbers we have, 20 ships, 35 aircraft, all, you know, will be helping in this area to try to figure out what the heck that stuff is.

ARNOLD GORDON, OCEANOGRAPHER, COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY: Well, the debris was found just north of the strongest currents which flow from west to east, but where the debris is, you can be a current, maybe about a half mile an hour so -- and 12 hours. So, you know, 24 hours, you move 12 miles towards the east. However, I think the bigger problem does have to do with the weather because the high winds form waves and these waves, very large in that area.

I have been in that area many times, and having waves of more than 20 feet are quite common. And that is going to probably have the larger effect in moving the debris towards the northeast. Maybe at about one or even two miles an hour. So -- and the photographs I believe were four days ago. Three, four days ago.

BALDWIN: Not exactly four, going into five actually.

GORDON: Right.

BALDWIN: So then they would have to trace back where it would have been right from that origin to then have drifted four, five days, so then trace further back if it is debris from the plane to find the plane in the first place.

Jennifer, when we talk about the currents, and also what we know, I mean, this is a vast part of the world where parts of the ocean are X deep and parts are like eight to nine Empire State Buildings stacked on top of each other deep.

GRAY: Yes.

BALDWIN: Right?

GRAY: Yes. It's very, very deep. And just like on the surface, you have mountains, you have things like under the ocean as well. The ocean floor. And so some of these areas that we're looking at are 10,000 or 12,000 feet deep. You have to stack like you said eight to nine Empire State Buildings on top of each other in order to get to that depth. That just puts it into perspective just a little bit.

We've also been talking about these ocean currents. And it's very interesting. I have a map that shows that. These are high resolution images and this shows -- it looks like a bunch of colors right now. But I'm going to show you just a little bit. If we zoom in closer, these are the currents, you can see the red arrows going down. Those are very strong currents. You see red arrows going up, those are very strong currents.

The lighter shades of green right where the wreckage is possible, whether the debris they're looking for. It is in an area where there aren't that many currents, but all that has to happen as the storm system moves through, very strong winds to move through and it can move this 10, 20 miles away, and all of a sudden you're in one of these currents going up or down.

And so if it's gotten at one of these currents, Brooke, it's going to be very hard to find because of all these arrows going in all these different directions, who knows where it is.

BALDWIN: So, Mr. Gordon, when we talk about the variables and the currents, I mean, I'm sitting here wondering wow, if they're even lucky enough to find this debris, that they can confirm this is in fact from the plane, how the heck do you find the plane?

GORDON: It's going to be difficult. For the most part, the currents are moving towards the east. But then you have the very strong waves. And you have white caps from the ship, you really only can see maybe five or seven miles with those high waves all around you. From the aircraft, the white caps, the waves, they're going to obscure much of the debris.

So it's not going to be easy to find it. And I think it's going to be of the order of 100 miles to the east or northeast or so. I -- that will be the direction that I think the waves and wind are going to carry it. So, boy, it's going to be hard. You have to be within a few miles of it to see it. Not going to be easy. And then the bottom of typography there it's over what we call the mid-ocean ridge. About 3,000 meters and 9,000 feet a little bit more.

And she said it's very rugged typography down there. Some of the typography finding the debris at (INAUDIBLE). It's going to be a challenge that will take a long time. BALDWIN: Days, weeks, months ahead, if, again, if this is it.

Arnold Gordon and Jennifer Gray, thank you both very, very much.

I keep, you know, checking my Twitter and you all are so engaged in the story. You have all these questions. We'll continue taking some of your questions about the plane live. So tweet -- you keep the tweets coming @brookebCNN, but make sure you add the #370qs and we'll have an expert on hand, a couple of pilots, to answer some of your questions live on the show.

Coming up, we will talk about three possible ways this plane could have hit water and what the debris could tell us about the impact.

Plus, the families waiting for word. They are hoping this news isn't real. You'll see the reaction when the news came in and hear from one American who says her partner who was a passenger is still alive.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: You are watching CNN special live coverage of the disappearance of Malaysian Air Flight 370. For now 14 days these families have waited and waited and still no answers. Today at a hotel in Beijing, families gathered closely around a large screen, had a daily briefing, hanging on every word made by Australian officials. They listened to yet another possible lead to this worldwide mystery.

Australian officials said these two objects captured on satellite may be from that missing flight, but that announcement was met with a loud sigh from those families in the room. In fact one woman whose partner was on board said it's just more of the same. In fact she took it further and said the investigators are acting like teenage girls.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BAJC: It strikes me as one more lead that may or may not come true. So it's enough to make us all anxious again after a couple of days of quiet, but you know, I'm cautiously pessimistic that it's not a piece of the plane.

The way that international investigators have been working together is kind of like a bunch of teenage girls running around the locker room all trying not to show each other what they've got.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: We are also told some of the elderly in Beijing have reported suicidal thoughts because their sole children who are products of China's one-child policy were on board that plane.

And our correspondent there David McKenzie sat down with a father whose son was on that flight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

WEN WANCHENG, FATHER OF FLIGHT 370 PASSENGER (Through Translator): I can't sleep each night because all I think about is my son. Up until now, what else can we do? This is about his flight. There is nothing you can do to help. We can only wait for further updates.

DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Is this the hardest thing you've ever had to go through?

WANCHENG (Through Translator): This is the first time in my life to experience something like this. In the past, I just watched other people's stories on the news. I watched explosions, ships sink, and plane accidents. Those were other people's stories. This time it is my turn for bad luck. It is my turn to actually experience this. This is not watching news. It is living it.

MCKENZIE: Do you still believe your son is alive?

WANCHENG (Through Translator): I firmly believe that my son together with everyone on board will all survive.

MCKENZIE: What message do you have for your son?

WANCHENG (Through Translator): Come back quickly. You have made everyone in the family very nervous. Everyone in the family is waiting for you to return. He has to come back. With everyone on board. He can't come back by himself.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BALDWIN: David McKenzie, speaking with that father there in Beijing.

Coming up in the wake of the breaking news about this possible debris, we are looking at the possibility that no one was at the controls of the plane at all.

Plus, my next guest says even if the plane was on auto pilot, there are three possible ways it could have landed or crash landed into the water. He'll tell us what the debris will tell investigators about a possible crash landing.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BALDWIN: All right. In the hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370, we are tracking every single angle of the best lead yet. So that's this. See these pictures? Two pretty grainy satellite images actually may show possible debris from that missing plane. Two objects detected in remote and turbulent waters nearly 1500 miles off the Australian coast in the Indian Ocean.

Now this possible debris may help explain what happened to Flight 370 if in fact it is from the plane. So let's talk about that with pilot and aviation expert Ronald Carr.

Mr. Carr, welcome.

RONALD CARR, AVIATION EXPERT: Thank you.

BALDWIN: Let's begin with the three different scenarios you sort of have outlined as far as how this plane if in fact it was the plane in this part of the world hitting the water. What are your three scenarios?

CARR: One would be a controlled situation where the pilots are in control. Be very similar to what you had with the Sullenberger incident on the Hudson River. Would be the one situation you have. That one was very fortunately ended up the airplane was not sort of damaged at all. You could have another situation where the same scenario where the pilots are under control of the aircraft and it does break up into pieces.

Another one, less likely from the standpoint that it could glide into the water without any control by the pilot. And the third one was where you'd run out of fuel and the aircraft would probably just, you know, nose over and into the water in a -- more of a vertical status, in which case the airplane would -- one guess would be that the airplane would come down and you'd have it like hitting a brick wall. And just crumbling and going together. And then, you know, pieces may break off, pieces may not break off.

BALDWIN: So we're kind of working backwards because if in fact this is debris from the plane, we know the investigators, right, can take a look at the debris and from the debris figure out how the plane went down and it could be one of the scenarios you just laid out for me.

CARR: It could very well be that, yes. Depending upon what they -- I'm not a crash expert as far as debris is concerned and stuff.

BALDWIN: Sure, of course.

CARR: There are people out there that can do that and once they have done that, they can then most likely determine what the aircraft -- what the impact nature of the aircraft happened with the -- with the water.

BALDWIN: What about this? Because a lot of people today with the possibility and the fact that all these, you know, jurisdictions are heading to this part of the world because this is where they're thinking as of today that -- you know, the plane could have landed. If the plane was on auto pilot, if the plane just continued and continued, if everyone was incapacitated, you know, runs out of fuel, would it just drop and hit the water? Or would it go at an angle?

CARR: Given the fact that it's at a certain speed, it's going to produce a certain amount of lift. And when that airplane runs out of fuel, the forward motion is probably going to slow down somewhat. And the airplane is going nose over. If it can maintain depending upon what the airplane was trimmed to, the airplane could have an angle such that it could be less steep and angle slowly down and impact the water that way.

BALDWIN: Which is best case scenario potentially because wouldn't the debris be more intact, thus helping investigators deduce what happened?

CARR: If -- yes, if it glides down and stuff, it's going to be, you know, less steep hitting the water in which case it might stay more intact or it might be more pieces available to search for the pattern, the debris pattern. If it comes down at a very steep angle like -- well, the one I'm thinking of is the Payne Stewart situation where the airplane was on auto pilot, ran out of fuel and then nosed over and came down pretty steep, and so there wasn't much aircraft left of that situation.

BALDWIN: OK. All possibilities, ones when and if. If they find this and they can -- that this is in fact the plane, all scenarios that we know these investigators will be looking at very closely.

Ron Carr, thank you so much.

Coming up next, this development here. We're continuing to discuss. It gives more credence to the theory that the plane did in fact fly for hours and hours before it ran out of fuel but what about the black box? What would the black box tell us? And how would crews even track that down?

Plus Martin Savidge and Mitchell Casado, they're standing by back in that flight simulator to demonstrate the scenario with which a plane would continue to glide and glide for hours. We will walk through that.

You're watching CNN's special coverage.

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